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NL Central Notes: Cubs, Soriano, Ramirez

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The Cubs have shifted from developing players to playing for the win, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. The eye-opening moment came last week when manager Joe Maddon removed closer Hector Rondon from the ninth inning of a 5-4 game. Now the club is going with a closer-by-committee approach – a familiar tactic from Maddon’s days in Tampa Bay. Maddon himself confirms that he prefers to have a set closer – it makes his job easier. However, doing the best thing for the club is a positive wake up call for the entire roster.

Here’s more from the senior circuit’s central division:

  • Maddon says that recently signed reliever Rafael Soriano may not reach the majors until around the All-Star break, tweets MLB.com’s Bruce Levine. Before he can shake off the rust in the minors, Soriano must obtain a visa. As we learned on Friday, the reliever can opt out of his deal if he’s not on the active roster by the All-Star Game. He’ll earn a pro-rated $4.1MM base salary with up to $4MM in incentives. Additional visa delays could have implications for his salary and opt-out clause.
  • Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez does not have a no trade clause, but he’s not letting trade rumors affect him, reports Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. Ramirez has hit just .223/.263/.406 on the season. He had his best game yesterday, bopping three doubles and driving in five RBI. Ramirez plans to retire after the 2015 season so it’s reasonable to assume he’s open to finishing the season with a contender. He has recently been tied to the Mets, but New York is looking for either a clear upgrade at third base or a versatile player. Ramirez will need more games like yesterday to fit the bill.

Central Notes: Lindor, Price, Cubs, Lynn

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If the Super Two threshold was ever a factor keeping top Indians prospect Francisco Lindor out of the big leagues, it does not seem to be anymore, Zack Meisel of the Northeast Ohio Media Group writes. The threshold has likely passed, and teams have promoted top prospects like Carlos Correa and Joey Gallo in recent weeks, but Lindor remains with Triple-A Columbus. Lindor is hitting .279/.346/.398, including .400/.429/.600 in June. The Indians, meanwhile, have undergone upheaval at the shortstop position, with Mike Aviles replacing the struggling Jose Ramirez. Here are more quick notes from the Central divisions.

  • David Price and the Cubs will be great fits for one another when Price becomes a free agent next winter, Jesse Rogers of ESPN Chicago writes. Price’s former manager Joe Maddon is now in Chicago, and Price says he finds a young team like the Cubs appealing. “They have a lot of guys they can control for a long time,” he says. “It’s very similar to when I first came up in Tampa. Just a bunch of young guys out there having fun. That’s what it’s about. You have to be able to have fun. I don’t want to win and not have fun.”
  • Cardinals starter Lance Lynn has headed to the disabled list with a forearm strain, and the team has promoted Tyler Lyons to take his place, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. GM John Mozeliak says Lynn should be able to return after the minimum 15 days, as Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. “A little forearm strain, as it looks right now, should be a normal 15 days and make sure we get everything calmed down — make sure it’s not something that flares up as the year goes on and I don’t try to pitch through something and make it worse,” Lynn says. Lynn’s injury is, however, another blow to a franchise that also has Adam Wainwright, Matt Adams, Matt Holliday and Jordan Walden on the disabled list.

Cubs Sign Rafael Soriano

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FRIDAY: Soriano’s deal does, in fact, include an opt-out clause that allows him to become a free agent if he’s not in the Majors by the All-Star Game in mid-July, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman writes.

TUESDAY: The Cubs have signed veteran reliever Rafael Soriano to a minor league deal, adding another option to the team’s late-inning mix. He’ll earn the pro-rated portion of a $4.1MM base salary and can add up to $4MM in incentives (based upon games finished and appearances).

MLB: Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins

It rates as a surprise that Soriano signed a minors pact, of course. After all, he landed at 37th on the top-fifty free agent list of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, who explained that Soriano was still a plenty capable reliever last year. Now, he becomes the final name on that list to sign.

On the other hand, as I wrote back in October, the righty faced plenty of competition in his segment of the market. And while technically a minor-league arrangement, his new pact comes with expectations of a relatively quick call-up as well as a significant salary upon his addition to the MLB roster. Early and frequent opt-out clauses would also seem likely, though they remain unreported.

Soriano’s new deal comes not long after he changed representation. Still on the market with two months of the season in the books, Soriano switched from the Boras Corporation to Octagon Baseball. He indicated then that he hoped to sign in fairly short order, and he had been set to hold a showcase later this week.

Of course, it remains to be seen what Soriano has left in the tank. He faded down the stretch last year after a nice start, ending up with a 3.19 ERA with 8.6 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 over 62 innings. All said, Soriano has produced solid (but not spectacular) results over the last two years despite a loss of fastball velocity.

Looking further back, the former All-Star has been fairly consistent in terms of his end-of-year production, if not his game-to-game results. Going back to the 2006 campaign, Soriano has thrown at least 60 frames seven times and only once ended a year with an earned run average higher than last year’s final mark. While his save tallies may have boosted his prominence beyond his true talent, Soriano has been one of the more reliably useful pen arms in the game for some time.

Chicago currently sits at 20th in the league in terms of reliever ERA, and its late-inning options (such as Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, and Jason Motte) have been short of dominant. With Neil Ramirez still working back from injury, it is easy to see the need for another quality arm.

By adding Soriano now, the Cubs will gain some time to assess their pen in advance of the trade deadline. It remains possible that the club will be in the market for higher-end relief talent, though the return of Ramirez will hopefully deliver additional punch from the right side.

Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reported that a deal was close. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweeted that the deal was done. James Wagner of the Washington Post tweeted the contract details.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Amateur Notes: July 2, Martinez, Sierra, D’Backs, Draft

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With the draft in the books, the next July 2 period is just around the corner. Last year saw several teams blow past their spending allocations, incurring two-year bans on $300K+ signings to do so. As the Angels, Diamondbacks, Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees go on probation, the Cubs and Rangers are returning to the market. Ben Badler of Baseball America breaks down this year’s market, with the Cubs joined by the Dodgers and Royals as teams that seem quite likely to dole out enough excess bonus cash to incur the highest possible penalties. The Phillies and Blue Jays could follow those clubs, says Badler, though they may yet be able to add their top targets without taking on a signing ban. Badler discusses several clubs that could be buyers or sellers of international space, with the Twins profiling as a major acquirer or spending capacity and the D’backs looking to get some value back for the bonus availability that they cannot take advantage of.

You’ll want to give that piece a full read. Here are some other worthwhile amateur links:

  • Badler discusses the signing situations of BA’s top ten July 2 prospects (non-Cuban edition). He says the Mets are the favorites to land Venezuelan shortstop Andres Gimenez. Though New York probably won’t get Vladimir Guerror Jr., who has long been linked to the Blue Jays, they may instead get Vlad Sr. nephew Gregory Guerrero, another shortstop. Meanwhile, Badler says the Rangers appear set to sign Dominican outfielder Leodys Taveras but now seem likely to lose Bahamian shortstop Lucius Fox to the Dodgers.
  • Cuban outfielder Eddie Julio Martinez has drawn a range of reviews, with MLB.com pegging him as the top overall international prospect and Badler expressing considerably more doubt. You can have a look for yourself, at least at some batting practice cuts, with a video courtesy of BA.
  • Well-regarded Cuban right-hander Yaisel Sierra will be represented by Praver-Shapiro Sports Management, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. As Badler recently explained, Sierra will be exempt from international signing restrictions when he becomes eligible to sign, but his Serie Nacional track record has never quite matched his promising pure stuff.
  • The Diamondbacks’ new regime exhibited a notable change in strategy in this year’s draft, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic notes (Twitter links). After going heavy on high schoolers at the top of last year’s draft, Arizona chose 15 collegiate players in its first 19 picks (including each of its first six selections) this time around. Individual draft dynamics always have an important bearing on a team’s final board, of course, but it is notable that the D’Backs ultimately chose just four high school players out of their forty total draft slots.
  • MLB.com’s Jim Callis lists the five teams that had the best drafts. Like other analysts, he places the Astros, Rockies, and Dodgers at the top of that list. Callis also likes what the Rays and Rangers accomplished with their selections.

Phillies Have Had Recent Papelbon Talks With Blue Jays, Cubs

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8:58pm: The Blue Jays had a scout in Cincinnati to watch the Phillies’ series against the Reds, writes CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury. According to Salisbury, that scout may have also been checking out right-hander Aaron Harang and lefty Cole Hamels. (Salisbury adds that Hamels will not approve a trade to Toronto, however, as has been previously reported.) Salisbury adds that multiple sources have told him that the Blue Jays and Phillies have indeed been discussing Papelbon quite recently.

5:57pm: The Phillies “are ready” to trade Jonathan Papelbon and have had recent discussions with the Cubs and Blue Jays regarding the five-time All-Star, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. However, there’s currently nothing close, and talks between the Phillies and both of those teams are at an impasse, per Rosenthal.

The Phillies are willing to pay a significant portion of Papelbon’s contract if it means receiving better prospects, and since speaking with the Blue Jays last week, they’ve increased their scouting of Toronto’s minor league affiliates. The Blue Jays are on Papelbon’s no-trade list, though Papelbon said months ago that he would have interest in pitching for Toronto. The Jays are currently one game above .500 and just three games back in the AL East, despite the fact that they’ve endured bullpen struggles nearly all season.

As for the Cubs, their front office knows Papelbon well. Both president Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer worked for the Red Sox when Papelbon was drafted, and each has a respect for his work ethic despite his somewhat abrasive personality. The Cubs aren’t committed to Hector Rondon as the team’s closer and are trying to add multiple late-inning alternatives, hence their recent signing of Rafael Soriano.

Rosenthal hears that the Phillies prefer to deal with the Blue Jays as opposed to the Cubs. I’d imagine that moving Papelbon to Toronto could require the Phils to eat more cash, as Toronto has more budgetary constraints. They’re said to have between $5MM and $8MM to make in-season additions, though Papelbon is earning $13MM this season, of which $8.3MM remains. It seems unlikely that the Blue Jays would want to place all their eggs in this one basket by spending all of the money they have left on Papelbon’s salary. Additionally, Papelbon’s $13MM vesting option has to be a consideration, as if he were inserted into the ninth inning in Toronto, he’d almost certainly reach the 48 games finished needed to lock in that final year.

Cubs Eyeing Further Relief Help Via Trade

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Though the Cubs added Rafael Soriano on a minor league pact earlier today, the team remains on the lookout for relief help “via the right trade,” reports Bruce Levine of 670 The Score (Twitter link).

The Cubs are currently utilizing a mix of Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, Justin Grimm, Jason Motte, Edwin Jackson, James Russell, Zac Rosscup and Travis Wood in the ’pen. To date, Chicago relievers have combined for a 3.68 ERA that ranks 20th in the Majors, though the eventual return of Neil Ramirez and the addition of Soriano could improve those results.

Additionally, Rondon appears to have lost the confidence of manager Joe Maddon recently. The 27-year-old began the season as the team’s closer after performing well in that role in 2014, but he was lifted from his June 6 outing after facing just one batter — a leadoff walk to Anthony Rendon — and he worked in a setup capacity the following night, with Motte earning the save.

The Cubs figure to be one of many teams hunting for bullpen help over the course of the summer, and they’re at least the third team to reportedly be seeking trades for relievers in the past week alone. Yankees GM Brian Cashman recently stated that he “needs” to find a right-handed reliever for his bullpen, and the Braves are also interested in bulking up in the ’pen, though for now they’ll hope that the addition of righty David Aardsma can help to solidify things.

The Cubs could take a look at righty David Carpenter, who was designated for assignment by the Yankees last week. Carpenter’s struggled in 2015 but maintained strong velocity and was excellent for the 2013-14 Braves. The Marlins are one team that has been recently linked to Carpenter. Other than Carpenter, however, there aren’t many relief options in DFA limbo.

Looking elsewhere, Milwaukee and Philadelphia are the most commonly cited potential sellers, and each has high-priced assets that would be appealing to shed for a rebuilding club (e.g. Jonathan Papelbon, Jonathan Broxton and, perhaps, Francisco Rodriguez). With Cincinnati continuing to slip in the division — they’re currently 12 back from first place — one could envision the Reds becoming sellers as well. Of course, Cincinnati’s bullpen is a large reason for the club’s struggles (though Aroldis Chapman would be an intriguing trade candidate if made available), and trades with either the Reds or Brewers could be complicated if any of the three teams are reluctant to make an intra-division swap.

Final Draft Notes: D’Backs, Aiken, Astros

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With the final countdown on, here are a few last-minute draft rumors making the rounds. There remains little clarity — except, perhaps, at the very top.

  • Late updates to mock drafts show a clear consensus that the Diamondbacks will take Vandy shortstop Dansby Swanson first overall. Check them out if you’re interested in final prognostications: MLB.com, Baseball America, Fangraphs. It is still possible that Arizona is holding negotiations with a few other players of interest, as multiple reports suggest, to keep open the possibility of freeing additional cash for later selections.
  • Last year’s first overall choice, Brady Aiken, has obviously seen a major value drop but still has ample talent. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets that Aiken has interest from the Cubs, who are unlikely to reach for him with their first pick, as well as the Rays (who choose 13th overall) and Dodgers (picking 24th).
  • Astros GM Jeff Luhnow says that his team intends to spend all of its $17MM+ draft pool money, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports on Twitter. Houston has the most cash to spend in large part due to its failure to sign Aiken, of course, which left the club with both the second and fifth overall selections.
  • The time for speculation is over now anyway, of course … the draft is about to start!

Cubs Notes: Motte, Baez, Schwarber, Aiken

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Jason Motte recorded a league-best 42 saves as the Cardinals’ closer in 2012, but thanks to Tommy John surgery and other injuries, he hadn’t saved a game since.  That changed today, when Motte handled the ninth inning in the Cubs’ 6-3 win over the Nationals.  Hector Rondon had already been brought in to pitch the eighth inning (and a tougher part of Washington’s lineup) and Pedro Strop was unavailable, leaving Motte to finish things off.  Motte entered Sunday with a 3.98 ERA, 5.8 K/9 and 1.63 K/BB rate over 20 1/3 relief innings this season.  Here’s some more from Wrigleyville…

  • The Cubs announced that prospect Javier Baez suffered a non-displaced fracture in his ring finger and will miss 4-8 weeks of action.  Baez was injured while attempting a steal during Triple-A Iowa’s game today.  The one-time elite prospect was enjoying a very nice year in the minors (eight homers and a .314/.387/.540 slash line in 155 PA), though this injury, combined with defensive and strikeout concerns, will certainly hamper his chances of a return to the majors.
  • The Cubs will require a designated hitter as they have seven games in AL ballparks over the next two weeks, and CSN Chicago’s Patrick Mooney suggests that calling up top prospect Kyle Schwarber would be a creative way to address this need.  Schwarber is having a big year at Double-A, and promoting now would give him a taste of the majors without causing any real service time concerns (as presumably Schwarber would be sent back down once the Cubs are through their road interleague schedule).  ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers doubts Schwarber will be called up since the team already has Chris Denorfia on hand, Schwarber has yet to face even Triple-A pitching and there’s obviously no guarantee that the rookie will be able to provide immediate help.  “Are the Cubs willing to use 10 days for curiosity or the best chance to win?” Rogers rhetorically asks.
  • Some clubs have ruled Brady Aiken out of their draft plans given the prospect’s recent Tommy John surgery, but Cubs amateur scouting director Matt Dorey tells Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times that “it would be really irresponsible not to look at” Aiken’s latest medicals.  If Aiken is healthy, the Cubs would potentially land a first-overall caliber talent with the #9 overall pick.  On the flip side, Wittenmyer observes that Theo Epstein has drafted position players with his top pick in 10 of the 12 years he has spent running front offices.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Mets, Tigers, Yankees, Coghlan

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The Mets appear to be keeping tabs on Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez and shortstop Jean Segura, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports in his latest video. Of the two, Ramirez is the more practical target for New York. He is expected to retire after the season and does not have a no-trade clause. The Mets are also interested in Ben Zobrist, but they believe other teams will outbid them.

  • The Tigers may not need to buy at the trade deadline due to the impending returns of Justin Verlander, Victor Martinez, Bruce Rondon, and Alex Avila. The lineup has struggled to push runs across the plate, but they lead the AL in OBP. When asked by Rosenthal, GM Dave Dombrowski said there are no scenarios under which the club could become deadline sellers. That means David Price, Yoenis Cespedes, and Alfredo Simon are unlikely to be traded.
  • The Yankees rotation may not be a priority at the trade deadline if the current starters remain healthy. In addition to the current options, Ivan Nova will begin a rehab assignment soon. Prospects Luis Severino and Bryan Mitchell provide further depth. The club could still acquire a star like Cole Hamels, but GM Brian Cashman says some of their top prospects are untouchable.
  • The easiest position for the Cubs to upgrade is left field. Chris Coghlan is hitting just .224/.298/.421 on the season. An unusually low .245 BABIP explains his low average. The club could hope for BABIP regression or replace him in one of several ways. They could trade for somebody like Zobrist. Alternatively, Javier Baez could be promoted to man third base with Kris Bryant moving to the outfield.

Amateur Notes: Gourriel Brothers, Martinez, Draft

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We’ve had a lot of news of players leaving Cuba of late, but two of the country’s most prominent names — brothers Yulieski and Lourdes Gourriel, rated first and fourth among the island’s players as big league prospects — have thus far not made any public moves towards the big leagues. As Ben Badler of Baseball America explains, however, both players are now set to miss the Cuban national team’s upcoming appearance in the Pan American Games. The younger of the two, Lourdes, was surprisingly left off the original roster, while Yulieski (the country’s biggest star) is said to have taken himself out of the tournament — after both recently seemed to have passed on chances to earn significant money playing in Japan. For now, it’s entirely unclear whether there is any movement afoot for the brothers to come stateside, but Badler notes that MLB clubs are watching with keen interest.

Here are some more amateur notes as we enter the final weekend before the draft:

  • As he prepares to join the professional ranks after being declared a free agent, Cuban outfielder Eddy Julio Martinez has moved into the top spot on MLB.com’s international prospect list, as MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez writes. It’s unclear as yet whether Martinez will sign in this period or the new one beginning July 2, but he’ll have to put pen to paper in short order if he’s to head to the Yankees or Angels. Those two clubs will be unable to spend more than $300K after this July 2 class closes, and they are among the teams who Sanchez lists with interest. The Cubs, Blue Jays, Nationals, Rockies, Tigers, Dodgers, and Giants have also reached out to Martinez’s camp, per the report. “I’m working hard to get to my goal to play in the Major Leagues, ” says the 20-year-old. “That’s what I have always wanted to do.”
  • The makeup of the amateur draft has changed over time, as Ben Lindbergh of Grantland explains. Mocking the draft is a more-or-less hopeless endeavor, says Lindbergh, but some trends have emerged. For one thing, the number of pitchers has continued to rise rather significantly. While this year’s class lacks premium talent, Christopher Crawford of Baseball Prospectus tells Lindbergh, some teams — the Rangers (who have the fourth overall pick) chief among them, based on their recent history — could well continue to stockpile arms. The Diamondbacks, who of course sit at first overall, have leaned toward position players recently, although they have an entirely new front office installed this time around. Meanwhile, the percentage of high school players taken has plummeted in the long run, but has jumped more recently. In particular, says Lindbergh, the Red Sox and Blue Jays have moved toward heavy drafting of prep players, who of course represent generally riskier but (in some cases) higher-upside investments. The Nationals have skewed most heavily toward college players — the spread is rather amazingly wide — though that could be due in part to draft circumstances. There are plenty more details in the piece, and I highly recommend a read to prepare for the coming draft.
  • Bonus allocations (which come with the penalty of stark limitations in future drafts) have had a marked impact on clubs’ total outlay on draft-eligible talent, argues Ronald Blum of the Associated Press (via the Denver Post). Draft spending has remained flat over the last three years, with Blum calculating that an analogous increase of total cash commitments to that observed in free agency — which was often the case prior to the new rules — might have delivered an additional $100MM to amateur players over that span. This area is obviously full of complicated questions, including considerations of an international draft, and it’s extremely difficult to identify clear-cut solutions. The piece is full of interesting quotes from notable figures around the game, and is well worth a full read.
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