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Players To Receive Qualifying Offers

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The deadline for players to extend qualifying offers to their free agents is 5pm ET today. The value of this year’s qualifying offer — which is equated by taking the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players — is $15.8MM. Teams can extend the QO to free agents who spent the entire year with that club (i.e. were not midseason signings/trade acquisitions), giving the player one week to accept or decline the deal. Should the player accept — and to this point, no one has ever accepted a QO — he is immediately under contract for the following season at that $15.8MM salary and cannot be traded without his consent until the following June. If a player rejects and signs with a new club, his former team is awarded a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round the following year. Any team that signs a player that has rejected a QO must forfeit its top unprotected draft pick. (The top 10 picks in next year’s draft are protected under the collective bargaining agreement.) Those wishing to drill down deeper into the specifics of the qualifying offer can check out MLBTR’s full explanation of the qualifying offer system.

The previous one-year record for number of player to receive a QO is 13, but with a deep crop of free-agent talent this offseason, a new record will absolutely be set. I see as many as 22 realistic QO candidates in this year’s free agent class, though some of those are admittedly borderline calls whose teams may decide not to make the risk. To this point, the Royals have already made the obvious decision to extend a QO to Alex Gordon (as they announced yesterday). That was the lone formal announcement prior to Friday.

All that said, here’s the list of formal qualifying offers to be extended (we’ll update accordingly throughout the day)…

  • The Orioles announced that they’ve issued qualifying offers to first baseman Chris Davis, lefty Wei-Yin Chen, and catcher Matt Wieters. Though reports at times questioned whether Baltimore would extend the $15.8MM offer to Wieters, it always seemed a near-lock that that the team would do so (with expectations that he’ll reject it and look for multiple years in free agency).
  • The White Sox have officially announced their qualifying offer to Jeff Samardzija, which was essentially a foregone conclusion. It’s been known that Samardzija will receive a qualifying offer and widely reported that he will reject said offer for quite some time.

Earlier Updates

  • Hisashi Iwakuma (Mariners), Dexter Fowler (Cubs) and Daniel Murphy (Mets) will all receive qualifying offers, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Each of the moves was widely expected, although Heyman also hears that the Padres have made up their mind and will make a qualifying offer to Ian Kennedy. That situation was a bit more up in the air, though Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune said two nights ago that it was a “likely” outcome, and we at MLBTR have voiced the belief that the Padres should and would make the QO on multiple occasions.
  • The Blue Jays have now announced that Marco Estrada will receive a qualifying offer on the strength of his impressive 2015 regular season and playoff performance. (A full breakdown of Estrada’s qualifying offer can be read here.)
  • The Cardinals announced that they have extended the qualifying offer to both Jason Heyward and John Lackey. Each decision was widely anticipated, as they 26-year-old Heyward is poised to cash in on an enormous contract due to his youth, defensive prowess and solid contributions at the plate and on the bases. Lackey recently turned 37, but he’s completely rejuvenated his career over the past three seasons and is well-positioned to land a sizable multi-year deal this winter even with draft pick compensation attached to his name
  • As noted above, the Royals announced their qualifying offer to Alex Gordon on Thursday afternoon.

Cubs Claim Ryan Cook From Red Sox

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The Cubs have claimed right-hander Ryan Cook off waivers from the Red Sox, the team told reporters, including MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat (Twitter link). Cook leaves Boston as he came, via the wire; the club nabbed him late this season from the A’s.

It’s been a rather stunning fall for the 28-year-old righty, who compiled 190 2/3 innings of 2.60 ERA pitching between 2012 and 2014. He struck out 9.3 and walked 3.5 batters per nine in that span, with a groundball rate hovering just above 45%.

The 2015 season was more or less a disaster for Cook, however, after shoulder difficulties delayed his start. Cook ultimately threw only 8 2/3 innings in the majors, allowing a stunning 18 earned runs on seven walks (against just four strikeouts). And he was far from his dominant self at the Triple-A level, though he managed better numbers at that level in a short stint at the end of the season with Pawtucket.

NL Central Notes: Price, Ash, Sadler, Happ, Soria

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The free-agent signing period has yet to even officially kick off — that will happen after midnight ET tonight, when the five-day, exclusive negotiation window between free agents and their current teams expires — but there are already plenty of rumblings connecting David Price to the Cubs. Earlier in the week, ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote (Insider subscription required) that “some rival evaluators consider the Cubs to be the heavy, heavy favorites” to land Price. And, earlier today, FOX’s Ken Rosenthal noted that he spoke to a pair of agents that represent some of Price’s competitors on this year’s free agent market, both of whom expect him to land with the Cubs. Rosenthal also spoke to an exec who knows Price and believes the Cubs to be the lefty’s top choice. All of this, of course, is highly preliminary in nature. It’s difficult to peg the Cubs as any kind of favorite when the team cannot yet negotiate with his agent, Bo McKinnis, in earnest and when the rest of the league hasn’t been granted a chance to persuade Price, either.

Here’s more from the NL Central…

  • Though he’ll have a new title and role, longtime Milwaukee exec Gord Ash will remain with the Brewers, GM David Stearns told reporters, including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. Ash had been the club’s assistant general manager since 2002 but will now work in an advisory/pro scouting role with the team instead. Stearns added that the club’s search for a new farm director is ongoing, adding that the search has been narrowed considerably since it began.
  • Pirates GM Neal Huntington revealed to reporters, including Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, that right-hander Casey Sadler underwent Tommy John surgery in October and will miss all of the 2016 season. Sadler made just one big league start for the Pirates in 2015 though he chipped in 10 1/3 innings in 2014 as well. The 25-year-old sinker-baller’s injury does deplete the Pirates’ rotation depth, however. The Pirates will be without Brandon Cumpton in 2016 due to shoulder surgery, Brink notes, and Nick Kingham remains on the shelf after undergoing TJ surgery himself in May. Sadler has a 3.53 ERA in 211 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level.
  • Brink spoke to Huntington for a second column, and the GM tells him that the Pirates have expressed interest in re-signing left-hander J.A. Happ. “We’ve had discussions about his interest in coming back,” said Huntington. “We’ve expressed to him that we have interest in having him come back.” Happ enjoyed the best stretch of his career following a last-minute trade from Seattle to Pittsburgh before the non-waiver deadline, logging a 1.85 ERA with career-best 9.8 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 rates in 63 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, a source tells Brink that the Pirates have not had any discussions with the representative for their other late July acquisition: right-hander Joakim Soria. The former Royals/Rangers/Tigers closer figures to be one of the more attractive relief options on the open market this winter and could cost more than the Pirates care to pay.

Tsuyoshi Wada To Sign With Japan’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks

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Left-hander Tsuyoshi Wada will return to Japan’s top league, Nippon Professional Baseball, to sign a multi-year contract with his former club, the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks, according to a report from Sports Hochi (Japanese link). The 34-year-old Wada, a client of Octagon, has a basic agreement in place, per the report, and a formal announcement will be made in the near future.

Wada first jumped from Japan to the Major Leagues prior to the 2012 season when he signed a two-year, $8.15MM contract with the Orioles. However, he’d never take the mound for Baltimore, as he underwent Tommy John surgery on his left elbow in early May of that 2012 season. Wada would go on to land a minor league deal with the Cubs for the 2014 season and ink a one-year, $4MM pact with the team one year ago tomorrow.

Wada tossed just 32 1/3 innings for the Cubs in 2015, but his work was quality, as it was the previous season. All told, while his attempt to establish himself in the Majors dates back to 2011, it will seemingly conclude with just 101 2/3 big league innings — none of which came with the team that originally signed him and invested in his arm most heavily. Wada will head back to Japan with a strong 3.36 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 38.7 percent ground-ball rate in the Majors. While the sample is limited, those numbers aren’t too far removed from the 3.13 ERA, 8.3 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 that he logged in 1444 2/3 innings across his nine professional seasons in Japan.

Poll: What Is Starlin Castro’s Trade Value?

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As we recently outlined in our offseason outlook series, the Cubs are in a fantastic financial position. With the exception of Jon Lester, the best players on their roster are either club controlled or on a team friendly extensions. In fact, only three players (besides Lester) are on substantial, market-rate contracts – Miguel Montero, Jason Hammel, and Starlin Castro.

Castro’s name stands out like a sore thumb. The 25-year-old has six years of major league experience and 11.3 career WAR. He was supposed to be a long-term cog for Chicago, but now the Cubs have a roster crunch in the middle infield. Addison Russell has firmly claimed the starting shortstop job. Next season, second base will likely belong to one of Castro or Javier Baez with Chris Coghlan and Tommy La Stella providing depth.

Given the available internal depth, it’s widely assumed that the Cubs will shop Castro this winter. But what can they get in return? While Castro is young, he’s inked to a four-year, $38MM contract. If he was a free agent, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes thinks Castro could sign for those same four-years and $38MM – if not more. However, he’s hurt his stock significantly with recent struggles.

Castro has looked like two different players throughout his career. In 2013 and 2015, he barely outperformed replacement level. In 2011, 2012, and 2014, he produced three WAR seasons. Overall, he’s a slightly below average defender at shortstop with inconsistent offense.

Which player is he – the above average shortstop or the replacement level depth guy? He’s probably both. Offensively, he’s a slightly aggressive hitter with decent but modest pop (10 to 14 home runs in each of the last five seasons). He keeps his strikeouts to a minimum, but he also doesn’t walk.

Without serious power or on base skills, he leans heavily on a high average to provide value. In his best seasons, he posted a .315 or better BABIP with a league average line drive rate. In his two worst years, his line drive rate dropped while his ground ball rate increased. That could indicate any number of mechanical, mental, or preparation-related issues.

Whoever employs him next season should probably plan to take the good with the bad. At worst, he probably won’t embarrass your club. At best, he’s a solid core performer. But what is that worth? We know consistency can be important to major league clubs. Building a contender depends upon managing both floor and ceiling. Castro’s inconsistency is point against him.

For argument’s sake, let’s say he projects as a two-win player. Teams pay about $12MM to $16MM per season for two-win players. With those assumptions, he’s worth anywhere from $10MM to $26MM more than his current contract (we could get more complicated with the model too). If that’s the case, the Cubs should find somebody willing to offer a relatively high profile prospect. A true top prospect is definitely off the table. Although there isn’t a fit with the Rangers, I could see somebody like Chi Chi Gonzalez as a match in value.

However, we could easily build a lower projection and hence a lower surplus value. Most models usually assume that players will decline pretty consistently from year-to-year, even when they’re young like Castro. Breakouts happen but injuries and other factors tend to sap talent more reliably.

Deciding upon the projection is the hard part. If the Cubs mean to trade Castro, they will have to shop around to find which teams have the rosiest outlook. As you might expect, there aren’t any comparable trades to reference. Young players who sign seemingly team-friendly extensions usually stay with their club until late in the contract. When they’re discarded, it’s usually because they’ve completely cratered.

We’re left to guess how rival clubs may view Castro. Will they see upside related to his youth? Is he valuable due to his position and potential for above average production? Can opposing GMs exploit the Cubs roster crunch by playing coy? These are just some of the factors to consider as you answer today’s poll.

What Is Starlin Castro's Trade Value?
Slightly positive - he could net an adequate prospect 48.26% (6,426 votes)
Neutral - the Cubs will have to include money to get a good player in return 22.79% (3,034 votes)
A lot - they can get at least one high quality prospect 20.90% (2,783 votes)
Negative - the Cubs will have to include cash and accept a middling return to offload him 8.05% (1,072 votes)
Total Votes: 13,315

Quick Hits: Mattingly, Royals, Mets, Murphy, Sveum

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The Marlins have announced a press conference for tomorrow morning in which they’re expected to introduce manager Don Mattingly, reports Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Mattingly, 54, has agreed to a four-year deal with Miami. The financial terms remain unknown. We profiled the hire more fully last week.

Here’s more from around the league:

  • The Royals and Mets could look different when they meet to open the 2016 season, writes Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Both clubs are expected to lose several key contributors to free agency including Alex Gordon, Ben Zobrist, Johnny Cueto, Greg Holland, Chris Young, Daniel Murphy, and Yoenis Cespedes. Three of those seven players were midseason mercenary acquisitions, but the Royals organization will certainly feel the loss of Gordon if he signs elsewhere. Meanwhile, the Mets are more likely to extend Murphy a qualifying offer after his huge NLCS performance.
  • Much has been written about the Royals offensive approach, but more credit belongs to hitting coach Dale Sveum, writes David Laurila of FanGraphs. Sveum took over the role last May and transformed the team’s offensive profile. As you might expect, he’s a proponent of aggressive hitting with an emphasis on balls in play. When the Cubs fired Sveum in 2013, Royals manager Ned Yost “waited like two minutes” before offering him a job.
  • The Padres have re-signed pitching coach Darren Balsley, reports MLB.com’s Corey Brock. Balsley was originally hired under Bruce Bochy’s regime and has been with the franchise for 13 seasons. He considered following Bud Black to the Nationals, but he opted to remain in San Diego. “There were a lot of opportunities to go elsewhere, but I let it be known to [general manager A.J. Preller] that this is where I wanted to stay,” Balsley told Brock. The longtime Padres coach explained that while he wasn’t born in San Diego, he was raised in the city and grew up rooting for the team. “I can’t personally think of a better job. My alliance is to the team,” said Balsley. New Padres skipper Andy Green met with Balsley over the weekend, and Balsley explained to Brock that the two meshed quickly.

Heyman’s Latest: Blue Jays, Wieters, Gordon, Yost, Cespedes

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Here’s the latest from CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman:

  • Executives throughout the game hold new Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro in high regard, and they’re surprised that GM Alex Anthopoulos would have the fortitude to walk away from a five-year extension when there don’t seem to be any other similar jobs out there. They do note, however, that the deliberative Shapiro and the fast-thinking Anthopoulos seemed like they might not work together well. The course of their discussions following Shapiro’s hire might demonstrate why — Heyman writes that Shapiro felt like he was being appropriately supportive, while the overworked Anthopoulos might have needed a little more encouragement. With Anthopoulos gone, Shapiro will likely hire assistant GM Tony La Cava, who Shapiro once worked with in Cleveland, as interim GM. La Cava and Indians exec Ross Atkins could be candidates for the permanent position. Manager John Gibbons, meanwhile, will likely return next season.
  • There’s a “decent chance” the Orioles will extend a qualifying offer to Matt Wieters. If they do, they’ll hope he doesn’t accept it, but they might think there’s a good chance he doesn’t, given that Scott Boras is his agent.
  • The Royals would like to keep Alex Gordon and could offer him a four-year deal, although Gordon might be able to get five from another team. The Cubs, White Sox, Astros and Orioles are among the many teams that could be interested.
  • The Royals appear likely to look for an outfielder and a pitcher this winter, although they know they don’t have a chance of re-signing Johnny Cueto. They could also extend the contract of manager Ned Yost after the season, and GM Dayton Moore’s contract could also be a priority. Both are signed through 2016.
  • The Mets appear increasingly likely to allow Yoenis Cespedes to depart via free agency, Heyman writes. The Mets could then focus on spending their available funds on keeping their young pitchers.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs’ primary offseason goal is to add an impact starting pitcher.  They will also address center field, consider trades for surplus position players, and explore an extension for Jake Arrieta.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jon Lester, SP: $125MM through 2020; mutual option for 2021
  • Starlin Castro, 2B/SS: $38MM through 2019; club option for 2020
  • Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $32MM through 2019; club options for 2020 and 2021
  • Miguel Montero, C: $28MM through 2017
  • Jorge Soler, RF: $18MM through 2020; may opt into arbitration after 2017
  • Jason Hammel, SP: $11MM through 2016; club option for 2017 that may become void based on ’16 performance
  • David Ross, C: $2.25MM through 2016

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

  • None

Free Agents

MLB: NLDS-Chicago Cubs at St. Louis CardinalsExpectations have been raised for the 2016 Cubs, after the club reached the NLCS for the first time in 12 years.  The team’s position player core has the potential to be in place for at least five more years.  Jorge Soler is under team control through 2020, while Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, and Javier Baez are under control through 2021.  At 26 years old, Rizzo is the elder statesman of the group.  Bryant, Russell, Schwarber, and Baez are years from arbitration, and Soler ($3MM) and Rizzo ($5MM) are also very cheap.  Theo Epstein and company have assembled something special and have lined the players up for sustained success.

Bryant’s rookie season defense suggests he’ll remain mostly at third base next year, although manager Joe Maddon dabbled with him at each outfield position and may continue to do so.  Rizzo is locked in at first base.  The veteran tandem of Montero and Ross will return at catcher.

The Cubs have a middle infield surplus.  Russell will remain the starting shortstop, so the question is what to do with Baez and Castro.  Both players were acquired under the Jim Hendry front office, though Epstein’s group brokered the extension with Castro in the summer of 2012.  Castro’s 2015 season was near replacement level, and he lost the starting shortstop job to Russell in August.  Partially because of an injury to Soler that forced Chris Coghlan back to the outfield, Castro became the starting second baseman in September and had a blistering month.  He continued in that role throughout the playoffs.

Castro won’t turn 26 until March, and he’s an enigma.  He tallied 529 hits from age 20-22, joining Alex Rodriguez as the only middle infielders to accomplish that feat in baseball history.  Since then he’s had replacement level seasons in 2013 and ’15, sandwiching a solid 2014.  The Cubs prefer Russell and Baez over Castro as defensive shortstops, so it’s unclear whether another team would install Castro at short.  He did show pretty well at second base late in the year.

If Castro became a free agent right now and demanded a four-year deal with a club option, I think he could get $38MM or a bit more.  So perhaps the Cubs could move him without eating salary, though they wouldn’t get a player back with much surplus value.  The Mets, Padres, White Sox, and Yankees could be potential trade partners for the Cubs, who would presumably look to add starting pitching.  Most of those teams have pitching depth, and the Cubs could look to add to their bullpen as well.

Baez, who turns 23 in December and comes with six years of control, is also a trade candidate.  He was able to cut his strikeout rate a bit in Triple-A this year, while dealing with the tragic passing of his sister as well as a broken finger.  Baez’s star potential gives him much more trade value than Castro, and it would be risky for the Cubs to move him.  The flip side of that is that making him available opens the door to controllable upper-tier arms like Carlos Carrasco and Tyson Ross, pitchers the Cubs pursued in July.  All in all, Castro is more likely to be dealt than Baez this winter, yet there is a reasonable chance the club enters the season with both and delays the trade decision.  Baez could serve as the team’s backup infielder to start the season.

Schwarber’s bat is well ahead of his glove.  He joined the Cubs in mid-June and clubbed 21 home runs in 304 plate appearances, including his postseason onslaught.  The plan remains the same for 2016: bring him along as a catcher when possible, while keeping his bat in the lineup as the left fielder.  Trading Schwarber at this point in his career would be an extremely bold move that I don’t anticipate the Cubs making.  Trading Chris Coghlan is a safer alternative.  He and Schwarber both bat left-handed, so they can’t form a left field platoon.  Coghlan remains affordable in his final year of team control, and he hit .264/.355/.476 against right-handed pitching this year.  I’m reminded of Seth Smith, who was traded to the Padres for Luke Gregerson two years ago.  The Angels, Astros, Giants, Orioles, Padres, Royals, and White Sox could be potential trade partners for Coghlan.

Though he’s cut from the same cloth as Baez, the Cubs could consider trading Soler for controllable pitching.  Soler posted a replacement level rookie season, with poor defense and a 30% strikeout rate.  His 112 total games played marked a pro career high.  Still, Soler flashed All-Star potential in the playoffs.  Like Baez, the safe move here is to retain Soler and see what he becomes.

With Schwarber and Soler penciled in at the outfield corners, center field is the Cubs’ clearest position of need.  Coming off the healthiest season of his career, Dexter Fowler is due a qualifying offer and perhaps a four-year contract in the $60MM range.  While the Cubs have the capacity to sign him, they may acknowledge that a four-year deal wouldn’t provide good value.  If Denard Span does not receive a qualifying offer and the Cubs aren’t scared off by his September hip surgery, he could be a cheaper replacement on a shorter term.  The Cubs have 2012 first-rounder Albert Almora working his way up the minor leagues, so a shorter-term investment makes sense.  Bringing Austin Jackson back is an option, or the Cubs could look into a trade for the Yankees’ Brett Gardner.  Epstein has named outfield defense as an area of improvement, which could mean exploring trades for players like Leonys Martin or Juan Lagares.

Despite some decisions to be made on the position player side, the Cubs’ offseason focus will be on their rotation.   The group is currently fronted by Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester.  After the season, Epstein spoke of his desire to add “impact pitching,” as well as big league depth.  He seems open to the “necessary evil” of free agency, and this year’s class is stacked with David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, and Jordan Zimmermann.  Jeff Samardzija could also be considered a potential impact arm.  Then there’s John Lackey, who Epstein signed as Red Sox GM six years ago. Greinke, Zimmermann, Samardzija, and Lackey would likely require the Cubs to forfeit their first-round draft pick.  The Cubs could make trade attempts for Carrasco, Ross, Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray, Matt Harvey, or Stephen Strasburg, though some of them will be off-limits and they come with varying amounts of team control.  In the end, expect the Cubs to come away with someone they’re comfortable starting in the first three games of a playoff series.

Hammel and Hendricks can capably fill out the back of the Cubs’ rotation.  Hendricks, 26 in December, won’t reach arbitration until after the 2017 season, and the Cubs could include him as part of a trade for a better pitcher like Ross.  Epstein’s mention of depth is important, as the club avoided major injuries in 2015.  They need to safeguard against possible injuries in 2016, especially with ace Jake Arrieta reaching 248 2/3 frames.  That means starting the year with at least six capable options.  Travis Wood could be stretched out if needed, but the Cubs should probably add two starters.

The Cubs assembled an interesting collection of relievers by the time the playoffs started, with a surprisingly heavy reliance on failed starters Wood, Trevor Cahill, and Clayton Richard along with Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, and Justin Grimm.  Wood’s past as a starter will drive his arbitration price up to more than you’d like to pay, but he posted a 2.95 ERA and 11.0 K/9 in regular season relief and should be retained.  It’s unclear whether Cahill, 28 in March, will embrace a relief role as a free agent.  He was very good in that role for 22 1/3 innings after joining the Cubs, and the team should find a way to bring him back.

Perhaps in the new year, the Cubs will explore an extension for Arrieta.  A big factor is who they are able to acquire – if it’s David Price on a seven-year deal, the Cubs would seem unlikely to make Arrieta their third long-term $25MM+ pitcher.  If it’s two years of Tyson Ross, maybe there’s room for a huge deal for Arrieta.  We project Arrieta to make a big leap to a $10.6MM salary in arbitration for 2016, and then he’d be due another raise for 2017.  Signing him now could allow the Cubs to temper those two arbitration salaries, but it would be a question of how many years the pitcher would need on top.  Arrieta’s projected free agency begins with his age 32 season, and Scott Boras is his agent.  Zack Greinke’s new deal will also begin with his age 32 season.  Whatever Greinke gets for his free agent years, Boras will expect the same.  That could be $150MM over five years, $160MM over six, or something else, but we should know by January.  The Cubs have to ask the hard question of whether giving Arrieta ace money through age 36 or 37 is prudent, when they already control his age 30 and 31 seasons.

If the Cubs are already looking at $185MM or so over seven years to lock Arrieta up in January 2016, how much higher would the price be in January 2017?  Can the Cubs wait this year out to see how Arrieta’s arm holds up after all the added innings, or will the window to extend him be mostly closed by that point?  If a long-term deal can’t be reached, the Cubs could at least gain cost certainty by signing Arrieta to a two-year deal.

In 2015, Joe Maddon’s Cubs got close enough to taste their first World Series in 70 years before running into the Mets buzzsaw in the NLCS.  The Cubs were playing with house money with a lot of fans this year, as many perceived this club to be a year early.  Now, the team will hike ticket prices and add to the payroll to assemble a playoff-caliber rotation to complement their exciting young position players.

NL Central Notes: Schwarber, Park, Chapman

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ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers dispels the notion that the Cubs will (or even that they should) shop Kyle Schwarber this offseason due to his perceived defensive shortcomings. While Schwarber undeniably struggled in the outfield this postseason, Rogers notes that no one was clamoring for such a move in the regular season. Schwarber logged about 300 innings in the outfield during the regular season, and while his inexperience showed, he wasn’t egregiously bad over that sample of games, either. It’s hardly a representative sample, but Rogers notes that extrapolating Schwarber’s Defensive Runs Saved mark to a full season would leave him about 10 to 13 runs below average, and his bat is capable of making up the difference. He also points out that with his work ethic, Schwarber has plenty of time to improve at a position that’s still pretty new to him. I’d agree that the notion of trading Schwarber — which I’ve heard from many fans — is an overreaction, to say the least. Over the course of a full season between the outfield corners and behind the plate, I’d expect Schwarber’s bat to make him a plenty valuable player, even if he doesn’t develop into an everyday catcher or above-average outfield defender.

Elsewhere in the NL Central…

  • Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review examines whether or not the Pirates should be bidders for Korean first baseman Byung-ho Park. Sawchik spoke to former MLB scout Daniel Kim, who said that the posting fee for Park could be at least double the $5MM Pittsburgh bid to secure negotiation rights with Park’s former Nexen Heroes teammate, Jung Ho Kang. Sawchik writes that as many as 20 teams have scouted Park, with the Rangers having sent “top executives” to watch him. Sawchik also points out the presence of top prospect Josh Bell, who isn’t far from the Majors and projects as a power-hitting first baseman himself. While Bell could be a trade chip, the Pirates also need to address the starting rotation, so perhaps spending money on Park while an internal option is present isn’t the optimal use of their resources. The Pirates, like other MLB clubs, don’t have too long to decide, as Park will be posted next Monday with bids due by next Friday.
  • The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Bill Brink writes that the Pirates have at least cursory interest in Park, reminding that they applied for credentials to watch him earlier this season. However, he also notes that Kang’s success will probably boost the market’s valuation of Park, possibly pricing him out of the range of Pittsburgh, who also has $8MM committed to Mike Morse next year. Earlier today, Sawchik examined at length how Kang’s success could drive up the market for Park.
  • While no one’s quite certain whether or not the Reds will trade Aroldis Chapman this winter, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports writes that the Diamondbacks, Blue Jays and Nationals would be at the forefront of trade talks for Cincinnati’s All-Star closer this offseason should they listen to offers. The D-Backs, of course, pursued Chapman aggressively prior to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, while the Nats could have a very different-looking bullpen next year. Drew Storen seems like an obvious trade candidate, and the Nationals will almost certainly shop Jonathan Papelbon this winter as well.

List Of 2016 Super Two Qualifiers

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Presented below is the list of players who have qualified for Super Two status for arbitration purposes this year. (Service time in parentheses.) As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently tweeted, the service time cutoff is 2.130. You can find arbitration salary projections for these players right here.

Click here to read more about how the Super Two concept works. Note that, as the link shows, the originally projected service time cutoff moved down as things played out over the course of the season. That brought some notable names into early arbitration qualification — namely, Calhoun and Rendon — which could have a big impact on their earning power in potential extension scenarios.

It’s also important to bear in mind that several of the players listed above have already agreed to long-term extensions: Gyorko, Lagares, and Archer. Notably, the size of the guarantee provided by Archer’s contract is dependent upon his Super Two status. By reaching it (as had been expected), he keeps a $25.5MM overall guarantee. That total would have been reduced to $20MM otherwise.

That contract structure reflects the importance of reaching Super Two status. Doing so not only bumps a player’s salary a year early, but sets a higher floor for future paydays.

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