Cubs Avoid Arbitration With Jake Arrieta
The Cubs have agreed to a $10.7MM deal with righty Jake Arrieta to avoid arbitration, Jay Cohen of the Associated Press (Twitter link). There was plenty of incentive for both sides to get something done, as Arrieta filed at $13MM and the team countered at $7.5MM, setting the stage for what would have been quite a high-stakes hearing.
Instead, Arrieta will land $450K above the midpoint. As MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has explained in detail, Arrieta’s case provided a test for assessing arbitration raises. While the MLBTR arb model projected a $10.9MM salary after Arrieta’s monster 2015 season, Swartz revised that downward to $10.4MM as a limitation on the predicted record raise for a second-year-eligible player. Obviously, Arrieta landed right between those figures.
Arrieta, who is nearing 30, somehow managed to improve upon his stellar 2014 campaign with the Cubs, taking home a Cy Young award in the face of stiff competition. Chicago successfully reclaimed him after a 2013 deadline trade with the Orioles that also landed Pedro Strop in exchange for a few months of Scott Feldman.
Over his 229 innings in 2015, Arrieta worked to a 1.77 ERA with 9.3 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9. He also improved upon his groundball induction numbers, posting an excellent 56.2% grounder rate on balls in place. With the righty showing career-best average fastball velocity, a true five-pitch arsenal, and non-existent platoon issues, there weren’t many pitchers this side of Los Angeles that could even come close to Arrieta’s work last season.
Of course, it remains to be seen whether there is any realistic hope of a longer-term pact. Arrieta is eligible for arbitration one final time next winter, and then stands to reach free agency. He won’t exactly be a youthful entrant onto the market, but as Zack Greinke just proved, it’s possible to take home over $200MM at an even later point in one’s career. Certainly, Chicago will have a tough decision as to how high it would be willing to go to keep Arrieta around.
Arbitration Hearing Notes: Donaldson, Arrieta, Martinez, Britton, Astros
The arbitration hearing between the Blue Jays and Josh Donaldson is set for Feb. 15, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter), giving the two sides 10 days to work out a multi-year deal. President Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins said last night that the two sides have been discussing such a pact, and the hearing deadline certainly gives the club motivation to strike a deal. The Blue Jays employ a file-and-trial approach to arbitration, which is to say that the team is one of many that have a policy against negotiating on one-year deals once figures are exchanged. That approach led to a hearing between the Blue Jays and Donaldson last year, and both sides undoubtedly would prefer to avoid a hearing for the second straight season. The Blue Jays won a hearing over Donaldson last winter, though he’ll have an American League MVP Award in his corner this season. Those interested in Donaldson’s case can check out an in-depth look from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, written as part of his Arbitration Breakdown series, prior to the exchange of figures.
Some more notes on various arbitration hearings around the league…
- The Cubs and reigning NL Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta are on a tighter schedule, as Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago/670thescore.com reports (on Twitter). Arrieta’s arbitration hearing is set to come next Tuesday — Feb. 9. The $5.5MM gap between Arrieta’s submitted figure of $13MM and the Cubs’ $7.5MM counter is the largest of any case this year. Swartz also examined Arrieta’s case at length.
- J.D. Martinez and the Tigers are continuing to discuss both one- and two-year deals, reports Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Martinez appears open to a considerably longer-term deal, having voiced a desire to spend the rest of his career with the Tigers. Martinez said last month that the two sides have discussed a long-term deal, but it’s unclear whether talks on a contract extending the club’s control beyond Martinez’s two remaining arbitration seasons has been seriously discussed. Swartz broke down Martinez’s case at length as well.
- Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports that the Orioles and Zach Britton have a hearing set for Feb. 17 (Twitter link). The two sides are facing a fairly sizable $2.3MM gap between Britton’s $7.9MM figure and the club’s $5.6MM counter. If a deal can’t be reached, it’d mark the second straight season with an arb hearing for the Orioles, who won a hearing over Alejandro De Aza last February.
- The Astros have arbitration hearings for Jason Castro and Evan Gattis set for Feb. 8 and Feb. 16, respectively, according to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (Twitter link). With Houston taking a file-and-trial approach to arbitration, both cases seem likely to reach a trial. Castro, in particular, seems destined for that outcome, as he’s a free agent following the season and thus unlikely to hammer out a multi-year deal.
- While in many cases, the gap between the player and team submission appears trivial, there’s a reason that many teams take such a firm stance. MLBTR spoke to multiple Major League executives on the topic last February to get their explanation of the responsibility felt by teams in arbitration.
All of the remaining unresolved cases, as well as the exchange of figures and settled amounts for all 156 players that filed for arbitration can be viewed in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.
Minor MLB Transactions: 2/1/16
Here are the day’s minor moves:
- Righty Jonathan Pettibone has signed a minor league pact with the Cubs and received an invitation to MLB camp, per a club announcement. The 25-year-old contributed 100 1/3 solid innings as a starter for the 2013 Phillies, registering a 4.04 ERA with 5.9 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9. But significant shoulder issues interrupted that campaign, and he’s hardly pitched competitively since. Pettibone underwent surgery to repair a SLAP tear in 2014, had a second procedure done last summer, and then lost his 40-man spot earlier this winter.
- The Mets have added catcher Raywilly Gomez on a minor league deal, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. The 26-year-old gets a major league camp invite. Gomez spent last year with the Angels’ Double-A affiliate, compiling a .291/.385/.336 slash in 284 plate appearances. He’s also spent time in the Phillies and Diamondbacks organizations.
International Notes: Lee, Fernandez, Heredia, Bell
KBO and NPB slugger Dae-ho Lee is reportedly drawing interest from MLB organizations, and has put up some strong numbers over the years. But he remains a difficult player to peg, as a Korean scout tells MLBTR’s Zach Links (Twitter link). “Maybe Carlos Lee minus some power,” the scout said when asked for a comp. “It’s tough. He is not typical, that’s for sure.”
Here are some more international notes, courtesy of Baseball America’s Ben Badler, who has a significant update on currently (or soon-to-be) available Cuban talent that isn’t subject to bonus pool restrictions.
- Cuban infielder Jose Fernandez has long had his share of attention, though he’s been delayed in reaching the majors. While he is on track to finally have that chance, once he achieves free agency, he’s had to delay his scheduled showcase, Badler notes. It appears that Fernandez has dengue fever, which would certainly make it hard for him to put his best foot forward for scouts. It’s worth noting, too, that it’s already proving to be a tough time to sign for established major league infielders, though it’s always hard to know how things will look in a few months’ time.
- Outfielder Guillermo Heredia is still unsigned despite a lengthy stint on the open market, with teams not sold on his bat. The Cubs and Astros are among the teams that have had him in for private workouts, though, Badler says.
- Badler provides plenty of interesting analysis and insight into a variety of other players, including “unorthodox” but “tooled up” infielder Luis Yander La O and outfielder Yadiel Hernandez (who Badler compares to Daniel Nava). Shortstop Luis Valdes would draw interest, says Badler, and appears to be off of the island and readying to attempt a big league career. Outfielder Urmani Guerra is set to showcase on February 4th and could profile as a fourth outfielder. And outfielder/infielder Maikel Caceres, 32, could get a shot with an organization. He is said to have drawn some interest from the Padres and Tigers.
- Outfielder Alexei Bell has long been a successful player in Cuba and internationally, but like Lee he’s facing a hard-to-guess market situation as a player who is already well into his thirties. Of course, he’s still waiting to reach free agency and put on a showcase on February 15, so we don’t yet have much of an idea of what kind of interest he’ll receive, though Badler says that interest has waned as Bell has aged. If you want to get an idea of his physical skills, be sure to check out this highlight video.
Minor MLB Transactions: 1-27-16
Here are today’s minor league signings from around baseball…
- The Cubs and left-handed reliever Nick Greenwood have agreed to a minor league contract, MLBTR has learned. The 28-year-old Greenwood was originally drafted by the Padres in 2009 but traded to the Cardinals in the three-team Jake Westbrook/Corey Kluber/Ryan Ludwick trade back in 2010. Greenwood made a brief appearance in the Majors last season but was more heavily relied upon in 2014, when he pitched 36 innings with a 4.75 ERA and a 17-to-5 K/BB ratio for St. Louis. The Rhode Island product has been used as both a starter and a reliever throughout his minor league career, though he’ll return to working primarily as a reliever in 2016 after starting for much of the 2015 campaign. Greenwood has a lifetime 4.99 ERA at the Triple-A level, where he’s averaged 4.9 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 in 313 2/3 innings of work. Greenwood’s deal doesn’t contain an invite to big league Spring Training, so he’ll hope to earn his way back to the Majors by replicating his 2014 performance from Triple-A.
- The Astros announced yesterday that they’ve signed left-hander Edwar Cabrera and infielder Danny Worth to minor league deals. The 28-year-old Cabrera briefly saw Major League time with the Rockies in 2012 but has otherwise spent his career in the minors, where he owns a 4.21 ERA with 9.4 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 in 77 innings at the Triple-A level and a 3.15 ERA, 7.1 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 277 innings at Double-A. As for Worth, the 30-year-old has considerably more big league experience, having tallied 292 plate appearances with the Tigers from 2010-14. He’s a career .230/.293/.295 hitter in the Majors but can play all over the infield and owns a .256/.335/.374 batting line in parts of eight seasons at Triple-A. Both Worth and Cabrera were invited to Major League Spring Training.
- The Rangers announced today that they’ve re-signed right-hander Nick Tepesch to a minor league deal and invited him to Spring Training. The 27-year-old missed the 2015 season and underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in August, but the press release announcing the move indicates that he’s throwing off a mound and will be ready for Spring Training. Tepesch appeared in 42 games — 39 of them starts — for the Rangers from 2013-14, logging a 4.56 ERA with 5.4 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9 in 219 innings of work. Presumably, he’ll serve as rotation depth.
Central Notes: Fowler, Mesoraco, Tomlin, Twins, Cardinals
The White Sox and Cubs continue to monitor the market for free agent center fielder Dexter Fowler, writes Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com/CBS Chicago. Both clubs are checking in on Fowler’s market on a daily basis, Levine adds. Levine spoke to one executive from another team that called the Cubs the likeliest landing spot for Fowler, though based on the anonymous quote, that appears to be purely speculative as opposed to any form of definitive knowledge. The report notes that Fowler could settle for a one- or two-year deal (possibly with a player option, in keeping with the offseason’s opt-out trend), although that, too, appears to be fairly speculative in nature. While Levine and the unnamed exec feel that Fowler should have accepted the qualifying offer, it’s easy to make such claims with the benefit of hindsight, and I’d contest that no such claims can be made until the parameters of Fowler’s eventual deal are known. Even if Fowler comes in at a number lesser than the value of the qualifying offer, the upside in testing the market (tens of millions of dollars) significantly outweighed a possible difference of a few million dollars, in my eyes.
More from the game’s Central divisions…
- Reds catcher Devin Mesoraco tells MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon that his surgically repaired hip is 100 percent, and he’ll be ready to go when pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training. Mesoraco suffered a hip impingement in the first month of a four-year contract extension and was limited to 23 contests last year before undergoing surgery in June. However, the 2014 All-Star says he’s been hitting for “a couple of months” and has also progressed to catching drills, including blocking/receiving pitches, throwing across the diamond. Mesoraco says in terms of work behind the plate he is doing “just about everything with no pain.”
- Right-hander Josh Tomlin, who signed a two-year deal with the Indians yesterday (including a club option for a third season), spoke to MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian about the decision to sign the contract. “I didn’t really look towards the free-agent part,” said Tomlin, who would’ve hit the open market next winter had he not signed the deal. “I’ve been a Cleveland Indian since 2006. When they approached my agent about that contract, it was something that excited me and it got me looking forward to the season and I appreciated it. It’s something we talked about and we were able to reach an agreement that I was happy with, that they were happy with. I wasn’t really looking toward the future and seeing, ‘OK, these guys are getting this much money. I could potentially have that kind of money.’ That never entered into my head. It was, ‘Cleveland Indians wanted to give me a shot and I’m all about it.'” GM Mike Chernoff tells Bastian that the plan for 2016 is for Tomlin to pitch in the rotation. Assuming that Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer all remain healthy, that would seem to leave right-hander Cody Anderson, who was solid in his big league debut this past season, without a spot in the starting five. Then again, virtually no team makes it through a season with only five starters, so Anderson and others should have chances to start throughout the year.
- There were no real discussions of a long-term pact between the Twins and Trevor Plouffe‘s representatives at CAA before the two sides agreed to a $7.25MM salary for the 2016 season, per 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson (Twitter link). As it stands, Plouffe will be eligible for free agency following the 2017 campaign. He was an oft-speculated trade candidate earlier this winter due to the emergence of Miguel Sano and the signing of Korean slugger Byung-ho Park, who will push Sano away from the DH spot. Minnesota plans to use Sano in right field for the time being, though Plouffe’s future with the club and Sano’s positioning on the diamond figure to remain connected, as Sano has spent the bulk of his minor league career at third base.
- Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press spoke to Twins GM Terry Ryan about the steps that the club is taking to make Park’s transition from Korea to the United States as smooth as possible. Minnesota has hired a translator of Park’s choosing and has also been in contact with several Pirates officials about the transition process for Jung Ho Kang in 2015 in an effort to make the process as seamless as possible for their new DH. Ryan notes that the fact that both Kang and Park are represented by Octagon’s Alan Nero also helps, as Nero adds another person familiar with the adjustment process to the fold.
- The Cardinals aren’t exactly certain of when Yadier Molina will be healthy enough to make his 2016 debut, writes Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, which creates opportunities for internal options like Michael Ohlman and Carson Kelly to make the roster as a backup to offseason signee Brayan Pena. Non-roster invites such as veteran Eric Fryer also could find themselves with a greater opportunity to see some Major League time due to the uncertainty. However, even though Ohlman has only been with the Cardinals organization for a little less than a year, he outlined Molina’s importance to the roster when speaking to Frederickson. “He controls the clubhouse,” said Ohlman. “It’s his team.” Molina underwent thumb surgery back in October and had to undergo a second operation in December after the first one did not fully correct the ligament issue.
Brewers, Angels, Rangers, Cubs Among Possible Austin Jackson Suitors
The Brewers, Angels, and Rangers are among the teams that have at least some level of interest in outfielder Austin Jackson, according to a report from ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). Meanwhile, he adds, the Cubs could conceivably bring Jackson back “for the right price.”
We haven’t heard much at all on the market for Jackson, who has endured a tough run of late but remains an intriguing player as he nears his 29th birthday. He’s queued up behind Dexter Fowler among center fielders, and Fowler could well be waiting to see what happens with Yoenis Cespedes before he commits to a contract.
But Jackson is a notable free agent in his own right. He entered the offseason placing 35th on the top-fifty list of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, landing with a one-year, $12MM prediction. As Dierkes noted at the time, it has always been unclear whether Jackson would land with some kind of multi-year arrangement or instead take a one-year pillow deal in hopes of finding a bigger contract next winter.
At his best, Jackson has delivered pop and speed to go with a quality glove in center — rather a difficult mix to find. Indeed, he tallied over 15 rWAR in his first three years in the league. Things have trended downward since, as Jackson owns a cumulative .269/.319/.382 batting line since the start of 2013.
While teams probably won’t be expecting a return to his established ceiling, even the diminished Jackson looks to be a useful performer. He’s still a capable center fielder with near a league-average bat, and has traditionally performed about as well against both left-handed and right-handed pitching. And it isn’t difficult to see the reasoning behind the interest from the clubs that appear in Crasnick’s report.
As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained in today’s podcast (around the 21:00 mark), in fact, Jackson looks like a nice fit with Texas since he could fill in all across the outfield. Los Angeles has long been seeking a solution in left field, while the Brewers’ could certainly stand to add a solid veteran in center — potentially with the hope of flipping him at the deadline or extending a qualifying offer after the season. And Chicago obviously was interested enough to add Jackson late last year. He’d possibly add an up-the-middle option to the Cubs’ outfield mix, especially if the team were to strike a trade involving Jorge Soler.
Cubs, Munenori Kawasaki Agree To Minor League Deal
The Cubs and infielder Munenori Kawasaki have agreed to a minor league contract, reports Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Kawasaki, a client of Relativity Sports, will receive an invitation to Major League Spring Training, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune.
The entirety of the the 34-year-old Kawasaki’s Major League career has come with the Mariners and Blue Jays over the past four seasons, during which time he’s batted a combined .234/.314/.284 while seeing time at second base, third base and shortstop. Kawasaki brings a light bat, to be sure, but his exuberance in interviews and over-the-top sense of humor made him a favorite of both fans and teammates alike over the course of his time with the Blue Jays.
The Cubs, of course, have plenty of talent around the infield, so Kawasaki is simply a depth addition for them. Kris Bryant, Addison Russell and Ben Zobrist will man third base, shortstop and second base, respectively, for the Cubs in 2016, and the team also has Javier Baez, Tommy La Stella and Arismendy Alcantara as additional infield options.
Latest On Antonio Bastardo
The market for left-hander Antonio Bastardo — arguably the top remaining free agent reliever on the market — has begun to pick up this week, per Baseball Essential’s Robert Murray. The Dodgers, Orioles, Mets and Blue Jays are all interested in Bastardo’s services, according to the report, which also notes that the Cubs met with Bastardo’s reps from the Legacy Agency at last month’s Winter Meetings.
Bastardo has reportedly been seeking a contract similar to the one secured by fellow free-agent lefty Tony Sipp this offseason. The 32-year-old Sipp landed a three-year, $18MM contract to return to Houston back in December, but the market for Bastardo’s services hasn’t been as aggressive despite the fact that he’s two years younger. While Murray notes that the intensifying market could potentially lead to a three-year pact, it’s difficult to see either the Mets or Blue Jays doling out that type of contract. The Mets are reportedly only interested in one-year deals with the remaining free agent relievers on the market, and the Blue Jays are said to be working with budgetary restrictions as their payroll is set to exceed last year’s mark as it is. The Orioles have been aggressive of late, but the $161MM they recently spent on Chris Davis (plus the $31MM given to Darren O’Day, the $7MM allotted to Korean outfielder Hyun Soo Kim and the $16.1MM going to Matt Wieters via the qualifying offer) calls into question how much more they’ll spend. (It’s also worth noting that with Brian Matusz, T.J. McFarland and closer Zach Britton, the team already has three lefties in the ‘pen.)
The Dodgers, to be sure, have virtually unlimited spending capacity, but they’ve taken a surprisingly measured approach to their bullpen shopping this winter. The Cubs, theoretically, could issue that kind of deal, though Murray notes that it’s not clear when the last contact between the two sides even was, and they, too, have three lefties in the ‘pen (Travis Wood, Clayton Richard, Rex Brothers).
Bastardo, 30, has been a somewhat quietly excellent performer across the past three seasons with the Phillies and Pirates. In that time, Bastardo has logged a 3.18 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 4.4 BB/9 and a 30.8 percent ground-ball rate. He’s also been effective against both left- and right-handed batters, holding same-handed opponents to a .167/.273/.295 batting line while surrendering just a .204/.310/.314 batting line even when his opponents hold the platoon advantage. Of course, control has been a persistent problem for Bastardo, too, as he’s only averaged less than four walks per nine innings in one season of his career — his debut campaign in 2009, when he tossed just 23 2/3 innings.
Minor MLB Transactions: 1/17/16
We’ll track the day’s minor moves right here:
- The Cubs have re-signed infielder Logan Watkins on a minor league pact, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports on Twitter. He missed the 2015 campaign with an Achilles injury, but appears to be back to full heath now, per the report. Watkins, 26, saw brief duty in the majors over 2013-14. He spent most of his time in those years at Triple-A, putting up a cumulative .249/.330/.372 slash over 840 plate appearances while contributing 33 stolen bases.