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Latest On Shelby Miller Trade Talks

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12:47AM: Other sources tell Wittenmyer that no deal between the two sides is close.  Jorge Soler is still a part of trade discussions between the Cubs and Braves (Twitter links).

12:35AM: The Braves and Cubs are close to a deal that would involve righty Shelby Miller going to Chicago and slugging infield prospect Javier Baez headed to Atlanta in the return, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports (Twitter link).

Miller has been one of the winter’s most oft-discussed trade candidates, with as many as 20 teams reportedly checking in on his availability.  Atlanta has demanded a major return in any deal for the 25-year-old starter, with such names as the Diamondbacks’ A.J. Pollock, the Yankees’ Luis Severino and the Marlins’ Marcell Ozuna all being asked about in talks with their respective clubs.  The Cubs were one of several teams linked with Miller, with Jorge Soler and Baez both being mentioned as possible trade chips.

Rays, Cubs Discussing Trade Involving Javier Baez

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9:05pm: The Cubs may be targeting Alex Cobb, Topkin tweets. The outstanding righty had his UCL replaced back in May and will obviously miss a good portion of the coming season. But he projects to earn just $4MM next year (an exact match for his 2015 salary) and would come with another cheap season of control thereafter.

5:45pm: Tampa Bay’s target in talks with Chicago is “definitely Baez,” Topkin tweets. He adds that the club is chatting with several other teams on deals at the moment.

Meanwhile, ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers tweets that Moore and Cobb appear to be more likely possibilities for the Cubs to pursue than is Archer, which is hardly surprising. He also says that, while relievers are “in play” in talks, the Cubs would “have to get a starter back.”

2:22am: The Cubs and Rays are in discussions about a deal that would send Javier Baez to Tampa in exchange for pitching, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.  Topkin isn’t sure how developed the talks are, or if a trade is likely to happen.  On Sunday, 670TheScore.com’s Bruce Levine reported that Chicago and Tampa had been in talks.

Chicago has been looking for both starting pitching and bullpen help this offseason, and the Rays are a potential fit in either department.  On the relief side, Jake McGee and Brad Boxberger have drawn widespread interest from several teams looking to reinforce the back end of their bullpen, and the Cubs fit that description according to recent reports.

Tampa Bay has already dealt Nathan Karns to the Mariners but it’s possible the club could continue to trade from its starting pitching reserves.  One would think that it would take one of the Rays’ more established arms (Jake Odorizzi, Matt Moore, Drew Smyly or possibly Erasmo Ramirez) to land a major power prospect like Baez, and it’s also probably safe to assume that Chris Archer continues to be unavailable in trade talks.

Baez was the ninth overall pick of the 2011 draft and a consensus top-seven prospect heading into the 2014 season.  He has yet to make an impact in his brief time at the MLB level, however, as Baez has posted a .201/.252/.346 slash line and 10 homers in 309 career plate appearances, with a whopping 119 strikeouts.  He struck out at a near-record rate in 2014, so while he improved in that department in 2015, Baez almost had nowhere to go but up.  That propensity for swinging and missing has also been apparent at the minor league level (426 K’s in 1678 PA) but Baez has also crushed minor league pitching to the tune of an .888 OPS and 89 homers.

Baez was drafted as a shortstop but has seen time at second and third as the Cubs have tried to find him a position amidst their other top youngsters (Kris Bryant and Addison Russell) and Starlin Castro.  With the Rays, Evan Longoria is locked into third and Logan Forsythe emerged at second last year, so Baez’s best fit is likely back at short, though they did just get Brad Miller from Seattle.  Baez could also see some time at DH or possibly even first, even how the Rays are traditionally flexible position-wise.

Starting Pitching Notes: Miller, Leake, Dodgers

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Braves president of baseball operations John Hart says that the club is “absolutely not in the mode” of shopping pitcher Shelby Miller, according to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (on Twitter).  For his part, O’Brien (on Twitter) has a feeling that the Braves have not given up on getting infielder Javier Baez or outfielder Jorge Soler from the Cubs in exchange for Miller.  On top of that, a few teams have also reached out with interest in Braves hurler Julio Teheran, as Mark Bowman of MLB.com writes.

Here’s more out of Nashville:

  • The D’Backs, Dodgers, and Red Sox are staying in touch with the Braves regarding Miller, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets.
  • A person familiar with Mike Leake’s talks thinks he could land a five-year deal for $75-80MM, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com tweets.  To some, that would appear to mark a spike in his market value, though MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted that Leake could net a five-year, $80MM deal way back in early November.
  • Agent Rob Martin told MLBTR (Twitter link) that pitcher Brandon Beachy is “100% healthy” as he seeks his next deal in free agency.  Beachy will be prioritizing the best pitching opportunities without any real preference for geographic location.   Beachy was designated for assignment by the Dodgers in July before accepting an outright assignment in August.  From 2010-13 with Atlanta, he posted a 3.23 ERA, 9.2 K.9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 267 2/3 innings. Durability has been an issue since reaching the Major Leagues, however, as he’s topped 100 innings just once in his career and made 10 starts in a season just twice.
  • Chris Young turned down the opportunity to sign a three-year deal elsewhere to return to the Royals on a two-year pact, according to Andy McCullough of The Kansas City Star (on Twitter).
  • There are five teams in on Justin Masterson, including the Pirates, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (on Twitter).
  • As many as a dozen teams are already showing interest in Henderson Alvarez, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets.
  • The Tigers and Cardinals both tried to land Jeff Samardzija, according to Heyman (on Twitter).  The Tigers, predictably, were out on Shark once they inked Jordan Zimmermann.

Kris Bryant, Maikel Franco File Service Time Grievances

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A pair of outstanding rookie third basemen, Kris Bryant of the Cubs and Maikel Franco of the Phillis, have filed grievances claiming that their service time was manipulated in an effort to delay their future entry onto the free agent market, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports.

No shortage of attention will be paid to these cases. Bryant, of course, won the National League’s Rookie of the Year award, while Franco might have staked his own claim to that title had he not been injured late in the year. In that regard, then, the stakes are high for the players and teams; if a panel were to award additional service time, both would stand to qualify one year earlier for free agency.

Most important of all, however is the heightened relevance of the matter with collective bargaining talks set to begin in earnest. The matter of whether, when, and why top young players are brought up to the majors — and thus begin accruing credit for time spent on an active MLB roster — has long seemed an area ripe for consideration (if not acrimony) between the league and the player’s association.

For those unfamiliar with how things work, teams have a powerful incentive to hold back talented young players — even those they believe to be ready for the majors — to slow their march towards free agency. A less powerful, but also relevant incentive exists to keep a player down long enough to prevent them from qualifying for “Super Two” arbitration status.

A player only accrues a full season of MLB service when he reaches 172 days on the active roster (that includes off days), and it takes six full seasons of service time to reach free agency. As a practical matter, then, teams can milk nearly seven years of control over players if they just keep them in the minors for a few weeks at the start of the year.

Indeed, that’s exactly what happened with Bryant and Franco, who accrued 171 and 170 days of service last year, respectively. While there were surely legitimate baseball reasons that also supported the decisions to start those players in the minors, it’s not hard to see what line of argument their agents will pursue.

Of course, many such matters are resolved before they get to a hearing, though in these cases it would seem a creative arrangement would be necessary. It will be most interesting to see how things proceed between the larger entities with stakes in the pair of disputes: MLB and the MLBPA. The sides have about a year to negotiate a new CBA, and the service-time issue presents not only a point of possible contention, but also rather a tricky problem to solve in practice even if agreement on a general direction can be found. While bargaining could certainly override any precedent struck in a hypothetical grievance, a victory in front of an arbitration panel would transfer leverage to one side or the other.

Cubs To Re-Sign Trevor Cahill

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11:55am: Cahill will receive a one-year, $4.25MM contract from the Cubs, according to Olney (Twitter link). ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers adds that while Cahill is definitely in the bullpen for now, the Cubs told Cahill he could be stretched out for rotation work should the need arise (Twitter link).

11:46am: The Cubs have agreed to re-sign right-hander Trevor Cahill, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). The John Boggs client was said within the past hour to be nearing a deal with an unreported club.

Still just 27 years of age (28 in March), Cahill enjoyed a renaissance in the bullpen after signing a minor league deal with the Cubs midway through the season. While the D-backs, Braves and Dodgers all seemingly gave up on him in various ways last season, Chicago received 17 brilliant innings of relief from the former starter in a relief role down the stretch. Cahill yielded just four runs in those 17 innings and recorded an outstanding 22-to-5 K/BB ratio to go along with an as-always excellent ground-ball rate: 61.8 percent. He also pitched 5 1/3 innings in the postseason, allowing two runs on seven hits and no walks with eight strikeouts (3.38 ERA).

While Boggs recently told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that Cahill’s preference was to return to a rotation, it seems likely that he’ll continue to be used out of manager Joe Maddon’s bullpen with the Cubs. Chicago already has Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel as rotation options, and further additions to the starting mix shouldn’t be entirely ruled out. If the bullpen is indeed the landing spot for Cahill, he will re-join the likes of Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, Justin Grimm, Neil Ramirez and Travis Wood in the team’s relief corps.

NL Central Notes: Castro, Montero, Kazmir, Walker, Lucroy

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With the Cubs contending and enjoying skyrocketing revenues, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times wonders why these added resources haven’t translated to extra payroll for the baseball operations department.  It’s possible payroll won’t truly rise to the level of other big-market teams until the Cubs renegotiate their next TV contract, which is due to expire in four years.  With revenues booming, Wittenmyer reports that president of business operations Crane Kenney has signed a contract extension that will keep him with the organization through at least the 2020 season.  Here’s some more from around the NL Central…

  • Starlin Castro was told after the season that he wouldn’t be traded, Wittenmyer reports, as the Cubs believe him to be a major building block for their 2016 roster.  Castro’s name has swirled in trade rumors for the last two years, most recently in discussions with the Yankees for Brett Gardner just a few weeks ago.  If the Cubs indeed do plan to keep Castro (barring an unexpectedly great offer, of course), that would seem to make Jorge Soler the team’s top trade chip among position players.
  • Miguel Montero could also be a trade candidate, as Wittenmyer hears from a source that the team is now considering the possibility of moving the catcher to free payroll space.  Moving the $28MM remaining on Montero’s deal through 2017 could save enough money for the team to make a big-ticket splurge on the likes of a Jason Heyward.  The issue with dealing Montero is that it leaves the Cubs very thin at catcher, as the slugging Kyle Schwarber is still very much a work in progress behind the plate.
  • While the Pirates have been interested in Scott Kazmir in the past, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (Twitter link) believes the rising costs of free agent pitching will put the lefty out of the Bucs’ price range.
  • In another tweet from Biertempfel, he hears that the Mets and Orioles “still have at least lukewarm interest” in Neil Walker.  Pittsburgh and Baltimore have discussed Walker “off and on” during the winter, while New York is a new player in connection with Walker’s services.  The Mets are likely to have a hole at second base with Daniel Murphy’s departure, though Walker’s MLBTR-projected $10.7MM salary in arbitration may be as much of an issue for the budget-conscious Mets as it is for the Pirates.
  • The Rangers have shown interest in Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.  The Brewers are receiving “plenty of action” on Lucroy from several teams but it would take a huge offer to entice Milwaukee to part with the former All-Star.
  • From that same piece, Haudricourt opines that it would make sense for the Brewers to trade Jean Segura sooner rather than later.  Dealing Segura would open the door for prospect Oswaldo Arcia at the shortstop, and the Crew could use Jonathan Villar and Yadiel Rivera at short until Arcia was ready for the majors.  That said, Haudricourt feels Adam Lind is the far more likely Brewer to be dealt during the Winter Meetings.

Central Notes: Indians, Reds, Chapman, Cubs, Tigers, Pelfrey, Cards, Pirates

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Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti tells MLB Network Radio (audio link) that he’s chasing offensive upgrades, with interest in hitters from both sides of the plate. “I think it’s probably safe to say … that if you’re a corner bat or an outfielder, that we are investigating those options,” said Antonetti, who added that Cleveland is “definitely looking to improve our position player club.” The executive made clear in his comments that the team is open to adding multiple bats.

Here’s more from the central divisions:

  • The Reds “have made everyone available,” Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets, including third baseman Todd Frazier. President of baseball operations Walt Jocketty indicated that would probably be the case back in November, as C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported at the time. “I don’t know if we’re in a position to say there’s any untouchables,” said Jocketty. With the Winter Meetings opening tomorrow, it seems that Cincinnati will be one of the major sellers to watch.
  • While the Reds have fielded the most active recent interest from the Dodgers and the Astros in star southpaw Aroldis Chapman, per another Heyman tweet, Cincinnati and Houston have been “having [a] hard time matching up.” All indications are that the ’Stros have been casting a wide net in their search for a top-notch reliever, possibly indicating a focus on achieving value, and it’s certainly possible to imagine that the team will be hesitant to cough up a major prospect haul after cashing in some significant assets at the trade deadline. Cincinnati will no doubt be looking to add near-MLB talent to plug onto a roster that has dealt with injury and performance issues in recent years, though MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reports that the team has some encouraging news on the progress of shortstop Zack Cozart and catcher Devin Mesoraco.
  • The Cubs have been chatting with the Rays about “some match ups,” tweets Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com, who notes that lefty reliever Jake McGee is “intriguing.” We have heard recently that Chicago could be looking to add a major arm via trade.
  • Tigers GM Al Avila says his focus this week in Nashville will be on bolstering the pen, Jason Beck of MLB.com tweets. Detroit might still look to make changes on the position player side of the equation, but that probably will not occur this week.
  • The Tigers have already addressed their rotation, of course, after announcing the signing of Mike Pelfrey to go with the previously-inked Jordan Zimmermann. As Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports, Avila called the move a “scout signing” in that the team believes the big righty has shown the ability to produce solid results moving forward. “He’s a guy we were very comfortable with,” Avila explained “He’s a guy that’s a good bet for us that he can bounce back and build off last year. Our intent was to get a guy that can get us 30 starts, give us some innings, a veteran guy that has good clubhouse makeup.”
  • Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt Jr. says that his club will “stretch again if we see the right opportunity” after putting in a big offer for lefty David Price, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. All told, Goold writes, the organization appears primed to have a major impact on the market even after missing on Price.
  • Another team that chased Price, the Cubs, sought to woo him with a seven-year, $161MM offer, per Levine (via Twitter). That is believed to be the third-highest offer, behind the Cards and the ultimately successful Red Sox. Of course, Chicago ultimately went on to add John Lackey for two years and $32MM, a signing that drew strong praise from at least one rival GM, per Heyman (via Twitter).
  • Meanwhile, the Pirates have a host of needs that remain open at this time, as Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. Team president Frank Coonelly tells Sawchik that the organization anticipates a rise in payroll, and has “flexibility to add by free agency and/or trades.” He also made an interesting observation on the club’s range of possible actions, saying the 2016 ballclub “may include players who are available to us in part because we have made other moves.” That could be a reference to high-priced veterans Mark Melancon and Neil Walker, both of whom have emerged as trade candidates. It seems that Pittsburgh could be a major mover at the GM Meetings, one of the many topics that Zach Links and I covered in this week’s Winter Meetings preview on the MLBTR Podcast.

Reactions To Jeff Samardzija Signing

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Here’s a roundup of the news and reactions related to the Giants’ signing of Jeff Samardzija…

  • The Giants ownership group “was ecstatic” with GM Bobby Evans’ preparation, writes Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News. After the club missed out on Zack Greinke, they were ready to quickly pull the trigger on Samardzija. While he’s a big step down from Greinke, Samardzija comes with plenty of upside. He’ll also allow the club to pursue either another starting pitcher or a serious outfield upgrade like Yoenis Cespedes or Justin Upton.
  • Samardzija selected the Giants over the Cardinals and Dodgers, tweets Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com. As has often been reported, the Cardinals are looking for depth to replace Lance Lynn who will miss 2016 after Tommy John surgery. The Dodgers are exploring the market for virtually any quality pitcher.
  • The Cubs backed off Samardzija due to the five-year term, tweets Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com. His former club met the $18MM annual value paid by the Giants, but were uncomfortable with such a lengthy deal. In my opinion, the John Lackey signing sufficiently meets the club’s current needs. If Chicago decides to upgrade for a playoff run, they can cash in one of their many prospects.
  • Meanwhile, the Yankees were never involved in the bidding, tweets Joel Sherman of the NY Post. New York is focused on the trade market for pitchers with zero to three years of service time. This news indicates a continuation of the Yankees’ youth movement.
  • Samardzija projects to be comparable to Jordan Zimmermann, writes Dave Cameron of FanGraphs. Given that Zimmermann signed for an average of $4MM more per season, the Giants received solid value relative to the market. Samardzija is a challenging pitcher to project, leading to a wide range of conceivable outcomes.
  • In talking about the deal, Evans praised Samardzija’s durability, writes Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. Evans believes mechanical adjustments could lead to a rebound 2016 season. He also suggests that working with Buster Posey this season will help Samardzija’s numbers. While he doesn’t specifically mention it, AT&T Park is the most pitcher friendly stadium in the majors. Undoubtedly, Samardzija will also benefit from his new home field.
  • Ben Zobrist, who the club can now afford after not inking Greinke, is scheduled to visit Giants officials soon, reports John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. Evans commented on the flexibility offered by saying, “smaller deals give you potential for larger moves, and larger moves could limit the number of choices you may have and cause a ripple effect with the need to stay with smaller deals.“

Bullpen Notes: Storen, Sipp, Astros, Rodney, Soria, Soriano

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Here’s the latest on a number of free agent or trade candidate relievers…

  • The Astros have discussed former Nationals closer Drew Storen as a potential backup plan, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets.  Storen could become of more interest to Houston if it fails to land one of its bigger-name targets like Aroldis Chapman, Jake McGee or Ken Giles.
  • The Astros’ search for bullpen help is the major focus of this Houston Winter Meetings preview piece from MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart.  Within the piece, McTaggart notes that there’s mutual interest between the Astros and free agent Tony Sipp for the lefty to return to Houston though the price tag remains an issue.  It could be that the Astros will focus on landing a big name closer first and then address other relief needs like adding a sorely-needed lefty to the bullpen.
  • The Cubs, Padres and Twins have shown the most interest in Fernando Rodney, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports.  Rodney would ideally prefer to return to closing, a source tells Berardino, so the Padres could have the edge in this respect since the back of their bullpen is wide open with Craig Kimbrel and Joaquin Benoit gone.  Rodney followed up three years of excellent closer numbers from 2012-14 with a disastrous stint in early 2015 that cost him his stopper job with the Mariners, though he regained some old form after catching on as a setup man with the Cubs late in the season.
  • There haven’t been any developments between the Twins and Joakim Soria since the team made its initial contact, Berardino tweets.  The Royals, Blue Jays, Giants, Rangers, Tigers and Red Sox have all been among the other teams linked to Soria this winter, though the latter two are said to be out of the running after their respective acquisitions of Francisco Rodriguez and Craig Kimbrel.  Soria is looking for a big salary in the form of a three-year deal in the $27MM range, which may eliminate at least a couple of those teams who were only looking at Soria as a setup reliever.
  • Also from Berardino (via Twitter), Rafael Soriano is pitching well in the Dominican League and has drawn attention from a few MLB teams.  The Twins aren’t one of those clubs.

Cubs Looking At Trades For Top Closers

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The Cubs are “actively exploring a trade for” a star closer, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports (Twitter link).  Most of the speculation surrounding the Cubs this winter has been focused on their search for pitching or outfield help, as Chicago’s bullpen was strong last year and current closer Hector Rondon has posted two seasons of excellent relief work.

Rondon did run into some difficulties in May of last season, though those struggles essentially consisted of two rough weeks that include two of his four blown saves.  Otherwise, Rondon was mostly spotless, as evidenced by a tiny 0.88 ERA and 51 strikeouts (against just 10 walks) over his last 51 regular season innings.  Pushing Rondon to a setup role would, theoretically, make the Cubs’ relief corps even stronger and closer to the Royals model of a shutdown bullpen that shortens games.

Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, Mark Melancon, Ken Giles, Jonathan Papelbon, Jake McGee and Brad Boxberger are some of the closers who have been floated as trade candidates in what has been a crowded relief market this offseason, with Craig Kimbrel and Francisco Rodriguez already changing teams.  Chapman and Melancon could be difficult fits for the Cubs, however, depending on how the Reds and Pirates feel about dealing within the NL Central.

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