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Cubs Notes: Free Agent Starters, Payroll, Montero

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The Cubs are set to meet this week with the representatives of several top free agent starters, including David Price, Zack Greinke, and Jordan Zimmermann, according to Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com. That’s not exactly a surprise, as Chicago has long been rumored as a major factor in the upper-level pitching market, but it seems to confirm that the club is eyeing a major acquisition. It’s also interesting to consider that all three pitchers offer different blends of expectations and risk, as well as different anticipated years and dollars. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ranked all three within the top ten free agents on the market, predicting that Price (#1 overall) would end up with the Cubs.

Here are a few more notes on the Cubbies:

  • What the meetings probably don’t signify is any inclination by the Cubs’ brass to attempt to add two high-end free agents. As ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers reports, both president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer have recently downplayed that possibility. “If we want to do two things we have to get pretty creative,” Epstein said, referring to managing payroll. “Even if we do one really big thing we have to get creative. We have the ability to add a little bit from where we are right now. I don’t think we have room to do everything that’s been speculated in some areas.”
  • The front office appears set to continue trying to build a consistent contender rather than gunning for 2016 success at all costs, as Hoyer suggested yesterday and Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune reports (subscription required). “Baseball is a sport that does involve some randomness,” said Hoyer. “To me, the goal is to win a lot of games and get to the postseason. If you do that year in, year out, that’s how you end up being good.” He went on to explain: “But if you put yourself in to be there every year, that’s the goal. Would it be disappointing if we didn’t make the playoffs? Absolutely. … Would I say it’s ’World Series or bust?’ That’s (not) a fair thing to put on a team.”
  • While some analysts have floated the concept of the Cubs dealing catcher Miguel Montero, Epstein says that’s not been considered, as Rogers reports.“We haven’t talked about that at all,” Epstein said. “[Montero] was a big part of helping our run prevention last year. His framing, his pitch calling. We set a record for strikeouts, we were third in ERA. He was a big part of that. It’s not something we’re looking to disrupt at all.” The emergence of Kyle Schwarber last year made it fair to at least wonder whether Montero could be moved, particularly since his salary ($14MM a year over the next two seasons) might be allocated elsewhere. But it does seem premature for the club to rely on Schwarber regularly behind the plate.

Bullpen Notes: Miller, O’Day, Soria, Madson

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The Yankees are reportedly open to nearly any scenario this winter, and according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, that includes trading Andrew Miller. While Heyman is careful to note that the scenario isn’t likely and the Yankees aren’t actively shopping their excellent closer, other clubs have said that Miller’s name is “out there a bit,” as Heyman puts it. Andy Martino of the New York Daily News applauds GM Brian Cashman’s open-mindedness (Twitter link). He speculates that the Yankees could flip Miller for immediate help and then trade prospects to acquire Craig Kimbrel from the Padres, leaving the 2016 club improved overall. The Yankees already have a dominant late-inning arm that could step into the ninth inning in place of Miller, of course, in Dellin Betances, though there’s certainly something to be said for having a pair of shutdown arms to handle the final two-plus innings of a game.

A few more notes from the relief market as the GM Meetings get underway…

  • Preliminary interest in Darren O’Day is “steep,” tweets Heyman, who adds that the Tigers, Cubs, Nationals, Red Sox, Royals and Dodgers are all in at this stage. The 32-year-old O’Day is probably the top relief arm on the market, as he’s coming off a dominant stretch in which he posted a 1.92 ERA in 263 innings over a four-year stretch spanning 2012-15. O’Day landed 33rd on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent list, with Tim Dierkes projecting a three-year deal worth about $22.5MM.
  • The Tigers will meet with the representatives for right-hander Joakim Soria at the GM Meetings this week, according to Tony Paul of the Detroit News (links to Twitter). The Tigers traded Soria to the Pirates at this summer’s non-waiver deadline, but that move was carried out by the since-departed Dave Dombrowski, and it stands to reason that new GM Al Avila, who is known to be seeking bullpen upgrades, could want Soria back in the ninth inning in Detroit. Paul adds that the Tigers’ preference between O’Day and Soria could come down to who is more willing to sign first, as the team will want to move onto other needs/targets relatively quickly.
  • Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star tweets that Ryan Madson, who picked up a World Series ring and emphatically re-established himself as a quality big league setup man with the Royals this season, is seeking a multi-year deal on the free agent market. That’s not a huge surprise given the lack of elite relief arms on the free agent market this season and the strong results he delivered in 2015. Madson tallied a 2.13 ERA with 8.2 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9 in 63 1/3 innings with Kansas City this season. He struggled in the ALDS and ALCS before turning in three very strong World Series innings. Tim pegged Madson for a three-year deal in the $15MM range in the aforementioned Top 50 list.

NL Notes: Stewart, Stearns, Perez, Cubs

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Here’s the latest from a few National League general managers as they prepare for the upcoming GM Meetings…

  • Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart would prefer to address his team’s pitching needs via free agency rather than dealing from his position player depth, he tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.  “I’m kind of in the mode of if I can hold on to my depth, then I’d like to hold on to it,” Stewart said.  “I want to see if we can accomplish what we want to accomplish by dealing with these free agents. That’s probably my first choice. That’s probably the way I would want to do it.”  Stewart said he’s already contacted with agents for several pitchers the D’Backs are interested in, and hopes to have more such discussions during the GM Meetings.
  • The Diamondbacks’ first round draft pick (13th overall) isn’t protected but Stewart sounded open to giving up the pick to sign a qualifying offer free agent if “whoever we get is impactful enough that we would want to do that.”
  • While the D’Backs are aiming at free agents first, Brewers GM David Stearns said his team is (not surprisingly) planning to focus more on drafting and trades in this stage of the team-building process, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes.  “That doesn’t mean we’ll never be a player in free agency. It means we’ll have to be very selective and opportunistic about the times that we do invest in the free-agent market,” Stearns said.
  • The Brewers made several roster cuts over the last week, which Stearns said was a way to “create roster flexibility” for future acquisitions and free some 40-man space to protect minor leaguers from the Rule 5 draft next month.  Hernan Perez elected free agency after being outrighted, and Stearns said the Crew will try to re-sign the infielder.
  • Cubs GM Jed Hoyer believes teams could make some trades made during or just after the GM Meetings since the offseason is already heating up, he tells Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.  “There’s probably going to be a little more urgency for teams. Given the fact there’s already been a trade, I think people realize that things could happen quickly. I think people are going to be ready to move quickly,” Hoyer said, referring to the six-player deal already swung between the Rays and Mariners on Thursday.  This doesn’t necessarily mean the Cubs themselves will be busy, though Hoyer has already had at least “exploratory” talks with all 29 other teams.
  • Hoyer expects to be asked about the Cubs’ position player depth in possible trades for pitching.  While the Cubs like their everyday and bench roster, “you can never say never,” the GM said.  “If something makes sense where we would trade out some surplus on the position-playing side for some pitching depth, that’s something we have to explore.”

Cubs Notes: Qualifying Offers, Samardzija, Fowler

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The Cubs will likely pursue top starters this offseason, and Jeff Samadzija is a possibility as well, Paul Sullivan and Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune write. Samardzija, along with highly ranked pitchers like Zack Greinke and Jordan Zimmermann, were among 20 players who were extended qualifying offers. But GM Jed Hoyer says the qualifying offer won’t be a decisive factor for the Cubs, who currently have the 28th pick in next year’s draft. “(Losing a compensatory) draft pick is important. We’ve built this team through the draft in large part, and through trades,” says Hoyer. “But when you’re in a winning window, you look at that consideration differently than you might have when you’re building.” Here’s more from Chicago.

  • ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers has more from Hoyer, who confirms that the Cubs will be hunting for not just one starter this offseason, but several. “We want to add at least one [major leaguer] but we do need to impact our starting pitching depth,” says Hoyer. “We will look to add multiple starting pitchers at various levels of the organization. That’s the best way to say it.” That means that, in addition to elite starting pitchers, the Cubs will also be in the market for less expensive ones. Rogers adds that the Cubs’ focus on pitching this winter means they aren’t likely to spend heavily on Dexter Fowler, and won’t pursue an expensive replacement if he departs.
  • The Cubs are, however, “doing homework” on top free agent outfielders Jason Heyward and Alex Gordon, Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago writes. Given their focus on pitching, it would be surprising, to say the least, if the Cubs signed either player, especially since they’re both corner outfielders and they Cubs have two promising youngsters in Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Soler currently penciled into the corners. It does, however, make sense for the Cubs to do their due diligence on just about everyone, given that they should have a fair amount of money to spend.

Players To Receive Qualifying Offers

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The deadline for players to extend qualifying offers to their free agents is 5pm ET today. The value of this year’s qualifying offer — which is equated by taking the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players — is $15.8MM. Teams can extend the QO to free agents who spent the entire year with that club (i.e. were not midseason signings/trade acquisitions), giving the player one week to accept or decline the deal. Should the player accept — and to this point, no one has ever accepted a QO — he is immediately under contract for the following season at that $15.8MM salary and cannot be traded without his consent until the following June. If a player rejects and signs with a new club, his former team is awarded a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round the following year. Any team that signs a player that has rejected a QO must forfeit its top unprotected draft pick. (The top 10 picks in next year’s draft are protected under the collective bargaining agreement.) Those wishing to drill down deeper into the specifics of the qualifying offer can check out MLBTR’s full explanation of the qualifying offer system.

The previous one-year record for number of player to receive a QO is 13, but with a deep crop of free-agent talent this offseason, a new record will absolutely be set. I see as many as 22 realistic QO candidates in this year’s free agent class, though some of those are admittedly borderline calls whose teams may decide not to make the risk. To this point, the Royals have already made the obvious decision to extend a QO to Alex Gordon (as they announced yesterday). That was the lone formal announcement prior to Friday.

All that said, here’s the list of formal qualifying offers to be extended (we’ll update accordingly throughout the day)…

  • The Orioles announced that they’ve issued qualifying offers to first baseman Chris Davis, lefty Wei-Yin Chen, and catcher Matt Wieters. Though reports at times questioned whether Baltimore would extend the $15.8MM offer to Wieters, it always seemed a near-lock that that the team would do so (with expectations that he’ll reject it and look for multiple years in free agency).
  • The White Sox have officially announced their qualifying offer to Jeff Samardzija, which was essentially a foregone conclusion. It’s been known that Samardzija will receive a qualifying offer and widely reported that he will reject said offer for quite some time.

Earlier Updates

  • Hisashi Iwakuma (Mariners), Dexter Fowler (Cubs) and Daniel Murphy (Mets) will all receive qualifying offers, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Each of the moves was widely expected, although Heyman also hears that the Padres have made up their mind and will make a qualifying offer to Ian Kennedy. That situation was a bit more up in the air, though Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune said two nights ago that it was a “likely” outcome, and we at MLBTR have voiced the belief that the Padres should and would make the QO on multiple occasions.
  • The Blue Jays have now announced that Marco Estrada will receive a qualifying offer on the strength of his impressive 2015 regular season and playoff performance. (A full breakdown of Estrada’s qualifying offer can be read here.)
  • The Cardinals announced that they have extended the qualifying offer to both Jason Heyward and John Lackey. Each decision was widely anticipated, as they 26-year-old Heyward is poised to cash in on an enormous contract due to his youth, defensive prowess and solid contributions at the plate and on the bases. Lackey recently turned 37, but he’s completely rejuvenated his career over the past three seasons and is well-positioned to land a sizable multi-year deal this winter even with draft pick compensation attached to his name
  • As noted above, the Royals announced their qualifying offer to Alex Gordon on Thursday afternoon.

Cubs Claim Ryan Cook From Red Sox

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The Cubs have claimed right-hander Ryan Cook off waivers from the Red Sox, the team told reporters, including MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat (Twitter link). Cook leaves Boston as he came, via the wire; the club nabbed him late this season from the A’s.

It’s been a rather stunning fall for the 28-year-old righty, who compiled 190 2/3 innings of 2.60 ERA pitching between 2012 and 2014. He struck out 9.3 and walked 3.5 batters per nine in that span, with a groundball rate hovering just above 45%.

The 2015 season was more or less a disaster for Cook, however, after shoulder difficulties delayed his start. Cook ultimately threw only 8 2/3 innings in the majors, allowing a stunning 18 earned runs on seven walks (against just four strikeouts). And he was far from his dominant self at the Triple-A level, though he managed better numbers at that level in a short stint at the end of the season with Pawtucket.

NL Central Notes: Price, Ash, Sadler, Happ, Soria

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The free-agent signing period has yet to even officially kick off — that will happen after midnight ET tonight, when the five-day, exclusive negotiation window between free agents and their current teams expires — but there are already plenty of rumblings connecting David Price to the Cubs. Earlier in the week, ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote (Insider subscription required) that “some rival evaluators consider the Cubs to be the heavy, heavy favorites” to land Price. And, earlier today, FOX’s Ken Rosenthal noted that he spoke to a pair of agents that represent some of Price’s competitors on this year’s free agent market, both of whom expect him to land with the Cubs. Rosenthal also spoke to an exec who knows Price and believes the Cubs to be the lefty’s top choice. All of this, of course, is highly preliminary in nature. It’s difficult to peg the Cubs as any kind of favorite when the team cannot yet negotiate with his agent, Bo McKinnis, in earnest and when the rest of the league hasn’t been granted a chance to persuade Price, either.

Here’s more from the NL Central…

  • Though he’ll have a new title and role, longtime Milwaukee exec Gord Ash will remain with the Brewers, GM David Stearns told reporters, including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. Ash had been the club’s assistant general manager since 2002 but will now work in an advisory/pro scouting role with the team instead. Stearns added that the club’s search for a new farm director is ongoing, adding that the search has been narrowed considerably since it began.
  • Pirates GM Neal Huntington revealed to reporters, including Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, that right-hander Casey Sadler underwent Tommy John surgery in October and will miss all of the 2016 season. Sadler made just one big league start for the Pirates in 2015 though he chipped in 10 1/3 innings in 2014 as well. The 25-year-old sinker-baller’s injury does deplete the Pirates’ rotation depth, however. The Pirates will be without Brandon Cumpton in 2016 due to shoulder surgery, Brink notes, and Nick Kingham remains on the shelf after undergoing TJ surgery himself in May. Sadler has a 3.53 ERA in 211 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level.
  • Brink spoke to Huntington for a second column, and the GM tells him that the Pirates have expressed interest in re-signing left-hander J.A. Happ. “We’ve had discussions about his interest in coming back,” said Huntington. “We’ve expressed to him that we have interest in having him come back.” Happ enjoyed the best stretch of his career following a last-minute trade from Seattle to Pittsburgh before the non-waiver deadline, logging a 1.85 ERA with career-best 9.8 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 rates in 63 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, a source tells Brink that the Pirates have not had any discussions with the representative for their other late July acquisition: right-hander Joakim Soria. The former Royals/Rangers/Tigers closer figures to be one of the more attractive relief options on the open market this winter and could cost more than the Pirates care to pay.

Tsuyoshi Wada To Sign With Japan’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks

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Left-hander Tsuyoshi Wada will return to Japan’s top league, Nippon Professional Baseball, to sign a multi-year contract with his former club, the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks, according to a report from Sports Hochi (Japanese link). The 34-year-old Wada, a client of Octagon, has a basic agreement in place, per the report, and a formal announcement will be made in the near future.

Wada first jumped from Japan to the Major Leagues prior to the 2012 season when he signed a two-year, $8.15MM contract with the Orioles. However, he’d never take the mound for Baltimore, as he underwent Tommy John surgery on his left elbow in early May of that 2012 season. Wada would go on to land a minor league deal with the Cubs for the 2014 season and ink a one-year, $4MM pact with the team one year ago tomorrow.

Wada tossed just 32 1/3 innings for the Cubs in 2015, but his work was quality, as it was the previous season. All told, while his attempt to establish himself in the Majors dates back to 2011, it will seemingly conclude with just 101 2/3 big league innings — none of which came with the team that originally signed him and invested in his arm most heavily. Wada will head back to Japan with a strong 3.36 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 38.7 percent ground-ball rate in the Majors. While the sample is limited, those numbers aren’t too far removed from the 3.13 ERA, 8.3 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 that he logged in 1444 2/3 innings across his nine professional seasons in Japan.

Poll: What Is Starlin Castro’s Trade Value?

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As we recently outlined in our offseason outlook series, the Cubs are in a fantastic financial position. With the exception of Jon Lester, the best players on their roster are either club controlled or on a team friendly extensions. In fact, only three players (besides Lester) are on substantial, market-rate contracts – Miguel Montero, Jason Hammel, and Starlin Castro.

Castro’s name stands out like a sore thumb. The 25-year-old has six years of major league experience and 11.3 career WAR. He was supposed to be a long-term cog for Chicago, but now the Cubs have a roster crunch in the middle infield. Addison Russell has firmly claimed the starting shortstop job. Next season, second base will likely belong to one of Castro or Javier Baez with Chris Coghlan and Tommy La Stella providing depth.

Given the available internal depth, it’s widely assumed that the Cubs will shop Castro this winter. But what can they get in return? While Castro is young, he’s inked to a four-year, $38MM contract. If he was a free agent, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes thinks Castro could sign for those same four-years and $38MM – if not more. However, he’s hurt his stock significantly with recent struggles.

Castro has looked like two different players throughout his career. In 2013 and 2015, he barely outperformed replacement level. In 2011, 2012, and 2014, he produced three WAR seasons. Overall, he’s a slightly below average defender at shortstop with inconsistent offense.

Which player is he – the above average shortstop or the replacement level depth guy? He’s probably both. Offensively, he’s a slightly aggressive hitter with decent but modest pop (10 to 14 home runs in each of the last five seasons). He keeps his strikeouts to a minimum, but he also doesn’t walk.

Without serious power or on base skills, he leans heavily on a high average to provide value. In his best seasons, he posted a .315 or better BABIP with a league average line drive rate. In his two worst years, his line drive rate dropped while his ground ball rate increased. That could indicate any number of mechanical, mental, or preparation-related issues.

Whoever employs him next season should probably plan to take the good with the bad. At worst, he probably won’t embarrass your club. At best, he’s a solid core performer. But what is that worth? We know consistency can be important to major league clubs. Building a contender depends upon managing both floor and ceiling. Castro’s inconsistency is point against him.

For argument’s sake, let’s say he projects as a two-win player. Teams pay about $12MM to $16MM per season for two-win players. With those assumptions, he’s worth anywhere from $10MM to $26MM more than his current contract (we could get more complicated with the model too). If that’s the case, the Cubs should find somebody willing to offer a relatively high profile prospect. A true top prospect is definitely off the table. Although there isn’t a fit with the Rangers, I could see somebody like Chi Chi Gonzalez as a match in value.

However, we could easily build a lower projection and hence a lower surplus value. Most models usually assume that players will decline pretty consistently from year-to-year, even when they’re young like Castro. Breakouts happen but injuries and other factors tend to sap talent more reliably.

Deciding upon the projection is the hard part. If the Cubs mean to trade Castro, they will have to shop around to find which teams have the rosiest outlook. As you might expect, there aren’t any comparable trades to reference. Young players who sign seemingly team-friendly extensions usually stay with their club until late in the contract. When they’re discarded, it’s usually because they’ve completely cratered.

We’re left to guess how rival clubs may view Castro. Will they see upside related to his youth? Is he valuable due to his position and potential for above average production? Can opposing GMs exploit the Cubs roster crunch by playing coy? These are just some of the factors to consider as you answer today’s poll.

Quick Hits: Mattingly, Royals, Mets, Murphy, Sveum

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The Marlins have announced a press conference for tomorrow morning in which they’re expected to introduce manager Don Mattingly, reports Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Mattingly, 54, has agreed to a four-year deal with Miami. The financial terms remain unknown. We profiled the hire more fully last week.

Here’s more from around the league:

  • The Royals and Mets could look different when they meet to open the 2016 season, writes Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Both clubs are expected to lose several key contributors to free agency including Alex Gordon, Ben Zobrist, Johnny Cueto, Greg Holland, Chris Young, Daniel Murphy, and Yoenis Cespedes. Three of those seven players were midseason mercenary acquisitions, but the Royals organization will certainly feel the loss of Gordon if he signs elsewhere. Meanwhile, the Mets are more likely to extend Murphy a qualifying offer after his huge NLCS performance.
  • Much has been written about the Royals offensive approach, but more credit belongs to hitting coach Dale Sveum, writes David Laurila of FanGraphs. Sveum took over the role last May and transformed the team’s offensive profile. As you might expect, he’s a proponent of aggressive hitting with an emphasis on balls in play. When the Cubs fired Sveum in 2013, Royals manager Ned Yost “waited like two minutes” before offering him a job.
  • The Padres have re-signed pitching coach Darren Balsley, reports MLB.com’s Corey Brock. Balsley was originally hired under Bruce Bochy’s regime and has been with the franchise for 13 seasons. He considered following Bud Black to the Nationals, but he opted to remain in San Diego. “There were a lot of opportunities to go elsewhere, but I let it be known to [general manager A.J. Preller] that this is where I wanted to stay,” Balsley told Brock. The longtime Padres coach explained that while he wasn’t born in San Diego, he was raised in the city and grew up rooting for the team. “I can’t personally think of a better job. My alliance is to the team,” said Balsley. New Padres skipper Andy Green met with Balsley over the weekend, and Balsley explained to Brock that the two meshed quickly.
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