The Cubs needn’t be in a rush to extend ace Jake Arrieta, opines ESPN’s David Schoenfield. Arrieta’s camp is said to be seeking a seven-year deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network, while the pitcher himself mentioned hoping to remain in Chicago for six or seven seasons. Though Arrieta’s 2015 results stack up with any pitcher in the game, Schoenfield notes that the righty hasn’t first proven himself capable of delivering consecutive 200-inning, 30-start seasons — unlike other pitchers to command seven-year deals. Arrieta will hit free agency at the age of 32, which makes him older than a typical free agent. However, he’s also thrown fewer innings in the Majors and minors combined than his peers that have inked seven-year deals by a fairly wide margin. Schoenfield also points out that president Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer seem to prefer to build around position players, as evidenced by their young core. Of course, the duo shelled out $155MM for Jon Lester just over a year ago, so it’s not as if the Cubs’ top decision-makers are entirely averse to long-term deals for pitchers.
Cubs Rumors
Latest On Extension Talks Between Cubs, Jake Arrieta
MARCH 8, 7:46pm: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the Cubs and Arrieta had discussions early in the winter, but the team wasn’t interested in making an offer greater than five total years (Twitter link). It’s not 100 percent clear whether that means five years including the upcoming campaign or five years on top of Arrieta’s $10.7MM salary for the coming season, but if talks were early enough in the winter, they likely predated that arbitration agreement, so it seems reasonable to infer that the Cubs were interested in locking up the 2016-20 seasons (two arb years and three free-agent seasons). Arrieta, Nightengale adds, was seeking “at least” seven years, which lines up with Heyman’s initial report.
3:00pm: President of baseball operations Theo Epstein says that the team doesn’t feel any pressure to reach a deal in the near term, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports in a series of tweets (1; 2; 3; 4; 5; 6). He called the discussions thus far productive in “provid[ing] a foundation for something to get done down the road” and noted there’s “no hard deadline, but there are no active talks.”
10:14am: Arrieta confirmed to reporters that there have been talks. They “go back to last fall and winter,” sources tell Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com (via Twitter). The righty says that Chicago’s range of years didn’t line up with what he was looking for, as MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat reports (links to Twitter). “I want to stay here for six or seven years, and that’s it,” he said while emphasizing that he does hope to remain with the organization for the long haul.
Arrieta also suggested he’d “prefer to not have a lot of open dialogue about [an extension] during the season,” as Mark Gonzalez of the Chicago Tribune reports (video link). Talks haven’t been extensive, he said, in part because the front office “kind of know[s] the ballpark of where [a deal] needs to be.”
MARCH 7: The Cubs briefly explored a “mega extension” with ace righty Jake Arrieta, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (links to Twitter), but the sides wrapped up their discussions when it became apparent they would not see eye to eye on the length of a prospective new contract. The Scott Boras client was believed to be seeking a seven-year pact, per the report.
While that term of years was apparently a non-starter for Chicago, Heyman adds that the Cubs front office appears to be willing to re-open talks again in the future. Arrieta recently agreed to a $10.7MM deal to avoid arbitration for the coming season, and can be controlled for one additional campaign through the arb process before qualifying for free agency.
Arrieta turned 30 yesterday, so he doesn’t exactly have his youngest years left to sell. But he’s also turned into one of the game’s most dominant starters, as evidenced by his Cy Young award last year. Arrieta’s career revival in Chicago was already remarkable, but after that 2015 campaign he could be set up as a premium free agent after the 2017 season.
Last year, Arrieta spun 229 frames of 1.77 ERA pitching, racking up 9.3 K/9 against just 1.9 BB/9 with a 56.2% groundball rate. That remarkable run was good enough to edge out the Dodgers’ outstanding duo of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke to take home honors as the National League’s best hurler. Though he wasn’t quite as effective in his later postseason outings, Arrieta also spun a complete game shutout to lead the Cubs to a wild card play-in victory.
As things stand, a hypothetical seven-year contract would take Arrieta through at least his age-36 season (assuming a deal would have covered the season to come). We’ve seen very few lengthy extensions of pitchers with at least four years of service time, with Cole Hamels (six years, $144MM) and Kershaw (seven years, $215MM) looking like the most reasonable comparables. Of course, both of those pitchers were both younger and had accumulated an additional year of service at the time they reached their deals.
More recent market developments would certainly also come into play. We’ve seen pitchers like Max Scherzer (seven years, $210MM), David Price (seven years, $217MM), and Greinke (six years, $206.5MM) top the $200MM threshold in recent seasons, and Arrieta will no doubt hope to land in a similar range if he can maintain anything close to his current level of performance. Greinke, in particular, represents a notable data point, as he’s slightly older now than Arrieta will be when he qualifies for free agency — showing that somewhat older arms can still land massive deals.
Of course, committing to that kind of deal at this point, with two years of control still remaining, is quite a different proposition for a club. If nothing else, Arrieta would surely be forced to give a discount for his arb years and distance from the open market.
Cubs Sign Ryan Kalish
- The Cubs have signed outfielder Ryan Kalish to a minor league pact. Formerly a top prospect with the Red Sox, Kalish is quite familiar to Cubs executives Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod. The 27-year-old didn’t play in 2015 after a minor league deal with the Blue Jays reportedly fell through. Kalish saw his most recent professional action with the Cubs in 2014, when he logged 157 plate appearances with the big league club. He’s a lifetime .245/.293/.350 hitter in the Majors and a .257/.325/.405 hitter at the Triple-A level. He’ll serve as organizational depth with the Cubs, presumably, as the team already has a very crowded outfield picture at the big league level.
Heyward, Others Turned Down Larger Deals To Sign With Cubs
The Cubs have several players, including Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, Dexter Fowler and Trevor Cahill that turned down more money elsewhere to sign in Chicago, tweets Jon Heyman. The Cardinals’ best offer is to Heyward is “thought to [have been]” $200MM over 10 years, while the Nationals, as previously reported, offered the outfielder $200MM+ over 10 years, albeit with significant deferrals, Heyman tweets. The three bids between the two teams were pretty much comparable (link), but Heyward simply preferred the Cubs over the other clubs. The outfielder, he adds, liked the team’s nucleus and, personally, he has a good history of playing at Wrigley. Heyman also notes that the other teams would have been willing to give him an opt-out as well.
Quick Hits: Cubs, Cahill, Davis, Judge
Yesterday, we heard about several Cubs free agent signees who took less money to play in Chicago. Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter) illuminates a few of the teams that missed out. We know the Orioles were in on Dexter Fowler as well as the Nationals and Cardinals interest in Jason Heyward. Ben Zobrist turned down better offers from the Nationals and Mets while Trevor Cahill declined to join the Pirates on a stronger offer. Of course, the details of those hypothetical deals are unknown. For example, the Nationals probably made heavy use of deferred money in their offers, reducing the present day value of their proposals. Heyman also has some contract details for reserve clause signees (on Twitter).
Here’s more from around the league:
- The Pirates offer to Cahill was to pitch as a starter, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun Times. However, rumors of a two-year offer may have been exaggerated. Cahill himself claims to be unaware of any two-year proposals. In my opinion, Cahill was smart to remain in Chicago as a reliever. His skill set plays particularly well out of the bullpen and could set up a strong multi-year offer in free agency next winter.
- New Athletics outfielder Khris Davis is happy with his new ball club, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. The former Brewer saw the writing on the wall when Milwaukee dealt away several veterans in the last calendar year. Davis, originally picked in the 2009 draft, was the second-to-last player from that draft class with the club. The Brewers still have Scooter Gennett penciled in to play second base.
- When Yankees prospects Aaron Judge and Jorge Mateo homered earlier today, they offered a glimpse of the future, writes Wallace Matthews of ESPN. The pair rank first and second in the Yankees farm system. Judge, 23, has a shot to contribute to the club in 2016 while Mateo, 20, is a little way off. Judge is a power hitting outfielder who hit 20 home runs in 540 plate appearances last season. Mateo is a speedy shortstop with 82 stolen bases in 2015 (500 plate appearances).
NL Injury Notes: McKirahan, Walden, Hamilton
Braves lefty Andrew McKirahan has a torn UCL and will likely have Tommy John surgery, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution tweets. McKirahan will visit with Dr. James Andrews, according to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman (on Twitter). McKirahan left Wednesday’s game with discomfort in his left forearm and had an MRI. He had previously had Tommy John surgery in 2012. Since then, he headed from the Cubs to the Marlins in the 2014 Rule 5 Draft, then to the Braves on a waiver claim. He posted a 5.93 ERA (albeit with a decent 7.2 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9) in 27 1/3 innings in 2015, missing a significant portion of the year after a PED suspension. Here are more quick notes on injuries.
- Cardinals righty Jordan Walden’s return from the shoulder issues that sidelined him for most of last year appears to be going well so far, writes MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch. Walden pitched a scoreless inning against the Astros Friday. Walden was a key part of the Braves’ bullpens in 2013 and 2014 and was expected to help the Cardinals after arriving in the late 2014 trade involving Jason Heyward and Shelby Miller. He only pitched 10 1/3 innings last season, however, none after April 29.
- Reds outfielder Billy Hamilton was scratched from yesterday’s game with a stiff right shoulder, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon tweets. Hamilton had surgery on the shoulder near the end of last season to fix a torn labrum and had conceded late last month that the shoulder wasn’t completely healthy (although he did say it was “feeling good” and that he wouldn’t be limited in Spring Training). There’s no indication yet, however, that the speedster’s current shoulder stiffness is serious.
Bryant Gets Big Pre-Arb Payday; Dex Took Less To Return
- The Cubs finalized contracts with all of their pre-arbitration players today, the club announced, and the Sun-Times’ Gordon Wittenmyer notes that the pre-arb agreements should take the Cubs’ payroll north of $150MM for the first time. While the team presently sits just shy of that mark at $149.232MM, awarding the final roster spot to a player like Rex Brothers or Shane Victorino, who have base salaries of $1.42MM and $1MM, respectively, would push the Cubs beyond that milestone. Somewhat notably, Wittenmyer points out that reigning Rookie of the Year Kris Bryant was renewed for a healthy $652K — a considerably larger sum than most pre-arbitration players (especially players with less than a year of service) would receive.
- While Bryant and his pre-arb peers were forced to take whatever the Cubs decided to give them, others have reportedly chosen to come to Chicago despite receiving similar or greater offers elsewhere. Jesse Sanchez of ESPNChicago.com says that held true of Dexter Fowler, who rejected offers from multiple other clubs “for multiple years and more money.” While the magnitude of the contract discounts in some Cubs’ free agent contracts seem to have been somewhat overplayed — indeed, in some cases, factors such as length and the presence of opt-outs in alternative offers make it unclear whether there was a true discount at all — this report certainly suggests that Fowler had plenty of opportunities to earn a good bit more elsewhere. “You create the right culture,” said manager Joe Maddon, “you would get guys wanting to stay with you longer, irrespective of money.”
Prospect Christian Villanueva Suffers Broken Leg
- Cubs third base prospect Christian Villanueva suffered a broken right fibula during a Sunday workout and will miss several months recovering from the injury, reports MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat. Villanueva, who was expected to have surgery today, according to Muskat, was injured upon landing after leaping for a ball in play, said manager Joe Maddon. “It’s just crazy,” said Maddon. “It’s really unfortunate. This kid came in, ready to go. … It’s a tough break, literally, for him — he’s such a good kid.” Villanueva ranked 26th on MLB.com’s list of Top 30 Cubs prospects, though he’s fallen off Baseball America’s version of that same list after multiple prior appearances.
NL Central Notes: Russell, Cubs, Weaver, Reds
The Cubs are convinced that young Addison Russell will thrive at shortstop, as ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick writes. Russell is just four years removed from anchoring the Pace High School Patriots’ starting infield, but they believe that he is mature beyond his years.”He’s got a good head on his shoulders,” Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said of the 22-year-old. “He’s our youngest player, but he might be the one we worry about the least.” Russell was the No. 11 overall pick in the 2012 draft by the Athletics and figured to be a big part of their future until he was shipped to Chicago in the Jeff Samardzija trade. In his first big league season, Russell slashed .242/.307/.389 as he adjusted to major league pitching. This year, the Cubs are hoping that the shortstop will provide them with a line closer to the combined .295/.350/.508 he posted at the Class A+ and Double-A levels in 2014.
Here’s more out of the NL Central:
- The Cubs are stacked with position players and they have great trade chips if they want to go out and add a pitcher, MLB.com’s Phil Rogers writes. After signing Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist this witer, the Cubs have a bit of a logjam as they try to get playing time for Kyle Schwarber, Jorge Soler, and Javier Baez. On top of that, the team has even more young hitters in the pipeline, so they can afford to work from their surplus.
- Cardinals prospect Luke Weaver is impressing early in Spring Training, as Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com writes. Weaver, ranked as one of St. Louis’ top prospects in 2016, projects to open this season at Double-A Springfield. Weaver has been working with veteran right-handers Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn, Langosch notes, picking up tips on his curveball and release point. “We always try and figure out how to put some of the young players with guys they can watch and emulate a little bit,” Matheny explained to Langosch. “We just thought Luke would be one of the guys who would benefit from not just the spoken, but the watching the habits that have become second nature for Adam.”
- Reds Rule 5 picks Chris O’Grady and Jake Cave are eager to show what they can do in camp, as Mark Sheldon of MLB.com writes. It’s been nine years since the Reds last successfully carried a Rule 5 pick all season, Sheldon notes, when the club had a pair of excellent Rule 5 pickups in right-hander Jared Burton and outfielder Josh Hamilton. Cave, selected out of the Yankees organization, spoke to Sheldon about the importance of maximizing an opportunity with Cincinnati, as the Yankees have a fairly notable logjam in the outfield, whereas the Reds have a clearer path to at-bats. Manager Bryan Price spoke to Sheldon about each player’s chances, noting that video alone of O’Grady on the mound has impressed him, while Cave faces a challenge going from an everyday role in the minors to either a platoon situation or a reserve that would move all over the outfield.
NL Central Links: Brooks, Soler, Williams, Morse, Wilkins
Newly-acquired Cubs righty Aaron Brooks is looking forward to playing for his new team, though as he told reporters (including MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat), he’s already run into some online confusion. The Aaron Brooks who has played guard for the Bulls for the last two NBA seasons has dibs as the most famous Chicago athlete with that name. “I’ve talked to [the basketball player] on Twitter before because everybody thinks I’m him,” the Cubs’ Brooks said. “People keep tagging me….All they have to do is look at the profile picture and they’ll know it’s not me.” Here’s more from the NL Central:
- The Padres, Rays and Indians all offered various pitching and outfield prospects to the Cubs in Jorge Soler trade packages, but Chicago decided to stick with the highly-touted outfielder, CBS Chicago’s Bruce Levine reports. While Tampa and Cleveland were linked to Soler multiple times this winter, this is the first time the Padres have been mentioned in connection with Soler. San Diego’s outfield currently features Matt Kemp, Melvin Upton and Jon Jay slated for most of the playing time with Travis Jankowski, Jabari Blash and Alex Dickerson in the mix for bench and platoon jobs. Had Soler been acquired (depending on when the Padres/Cubs talks took place), it’s fair to assume that the Padres wouldn’t have acquired Jay from St. Louis and Soler would’ve been playing every day in either left or right field. This is just my speculation, but since the Cubs were known to be targeting young pitching for Soler, I would guess Chicago floated the names of Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner in return.
- From that same Levine item, Soler said he isn’t concerned about how the Cubs’ acquisitions of Dexter Fowler and Shane Victorino will impact his playing time. “I will get my opportunity and chance. I will do my job and try to help the team,” Soler said through a translator.
- In a recent talk with MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon and other media about the Reds’ trades of pricey veterans over the last year, Cincinnati GM Dick Williams stressed that “we’re not saving to create a profit, we’re saving to invest in the future, for sure. We’ve got the biggest amateur signing pool this year, when you combine domestic and international….I talked about investing in the analytics and sports science. We’ll be investing in personnel, scouting personnel, new player development initiatives. I’ll be talking a lot about that over the course of this year as we roll things out, but we’ll put that money [to] work for sure.”
- Mike Morse took some grounders at third base, though it’s safe to say he’s not expecting to do the same for the Pirates during the season. “We’re not trying to get me to play over there — unless the game goes 28 innings and no one’s left,” Morse told reporters (including Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review), noting that he routinely spends a bit of time around the infield every year in camp. Morse has played nine games at third at the MLB level, though none since 2009.
- If you’re wondering why it’s been over two months without a new Andy Wilkins transaction here on MLB Trade Rumors, it’s because he has seemingly settled down (finally) with the Brewers. Wilkins discussed his wild 2015 with reporters (including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy) and how he coped with six different transactions that made him a member of seven different organizations — the White Sox, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Orioles, Mariners, Rangers and Brewers — within roughly nine months’ time. Speaking of nine-month spans, these moves came while Wilkins and his wife were expecting their first child, who was born in December just two days before Milwaukee claimed the first baseman on waivers.
