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NL Notes: Arrieta, Pirates, Phillies

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Now is the time for the Cubs to try to sign ace Jake Arrieta to a long-term deal, Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago writes. Arrieta and the Cubs recently agreed on a one-year, $10.7MM contract to avoid arbitration in Arrieta’s second year of eligibility. Arrieta can currently become a free agent after the 2017 season. Of course, Arrieta’s agent Scott Boras would surely agree that an extension for Arrieta shouldn’t be cheap after his Cy Young award-winning 2015 season, and since Arrieta turns 30 next month, he might only have one shot at a big free agent deal, meaning he might not be inclined to sign now unless the deal is quite long. Also, Arrieta’s incredible stretch run changed the landscape since we last closely considered his extension candidacy. Levine proposes a four-year deal at an average of $23MM per season, with two club options. While it’s true that Arrieta’s salaries for the next two seasons are essentially set via the arbitration process, a $92MM deal with options would, in my opinion, be unlikely to bring Boras and Arrieta to the table. Recent history suggests Arrieta has a shot at a deal in the $200MM range if he waits until after 2017. Here’s more from the National League.

  • The Pirates won 98 games last season and have a strong core in place, but many of their top competitors in the National League have improved, Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. The Cubs have had a busy and productive offseason, and while the Cardinals have lost talent (some of it to their rivals in Chicago), they should benefit somewhat from better luck with injuries. The rest of the league, too, has become increasingly polarized, with several very bad teams, but lots of potentially strong ones, including the Mets, Nationals, Dodgers, Giants and Diamondbacks. The Bucs, however, continue to believe in themselves. “There’s no question the Cubs did a fantastic job on balancing amateur player acquisition and timing it with those young players being ready to hit the major league level and then pouring a ton of money into free agency,” says Pirates GM Neal Huntington. “They are going to be good going forward. The Cardinals are going to be good going forward. Our belief is, with this core that we have, that we are going to continue to be good going forward.”
  • The Phillies don’t figure to be one of the NL contenders in 2016. They should, however, be fun, as FanGraphs’ Paul Swydan writes. They suddenly have only a handful of over-30 players, and the younger ones offer a mix of power (Maikel Franco), defensive ability (Odubel Herrera), speed (Cesar Hernandez) and, among the Phillies’ young pitchers, control (Aaron Nola). Then there’s top prospect J.P. Crawford, who could make his debut in 2016, along with a number of other very interesting minor leaguers, including Nick Williams, Andrew Knapp, Dylan Cozens, Jake Thompson, Vincent Velasquez and Mark Appel.

Quick Hits: Bell, Linares, Puig, Jackson, Rays

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The big ticket free agents aren’t always the most important offseason additions, writes AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. Using the Steamer projection system, Cassavell takes a look at the six players he thinks will most affect their respective divisions. Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman and Cubs center fielder Jason Heyward are obvious picks. Surprisingly, Cassavell finds Mike Napoli to be the big name in the AL Central while Wade Miley’s move to Seattle could be sneaky important.

Here are a few more notes from around the league:

  • Cuban veterans Alexei Bell and Yordanis Linares will hold workouts on February 15 and 16 in Baja California, tweets Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com. Bell, 32, was reported to have left Cuba on January 13 and could fit as a right fielder. Linares’ defection was reported last summer. The 26-year-old doesn’t have enough professional experience in the Serie Nacional to avoid international spending restrictions. Bell, however, can be signed by any team.
  • The White Sox should target Yasiel Puig, opines Scott Merkin of MLB.com. Chicago has shown curiosity about the Dodgers outfield depth and could obviously stand to improve in the outfield. Rumors have tied them to veteran lefty Andre Ethier who could provide a useful platoon bat. However, Puig represents a more definitive upgrade with a star ceiling. Unfortunately, young talent comes with a price. Merkin lists pitchers Carson Fulmer, Spencer Adams, and shortstop Tim Anderson as possible targets for the Dodgers. Trading any of that trio would be a bitter pill to swallow.
  • The Indians could be a fit for free agent outfielder Austin Jackson, suggest Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com. Center field depth would be useful considering that Michael Brantley will start the season on the disabled list. Lonnie Chisenhall, Rajai Davis, and Abraham Almonte figure to form the Opening Day outfield, and it’s not hard to see a way to improve upon that trio. At the very least, additional depth in case of injury would be valuable.
  • The Rays should consider three more offseason moves, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The bullpen could use additional depth – perhaps Tyler Clippard or Tommy Hunter. Either Desmond Jennings or Brandon Guyer can be traded. The team is deepest with them on the roster, but they may be expendable. Jennings’ health may make a trade difficult. Lastly, Ian Desmond looks more and more attractive as a buy low option. The Rays have to be willing to discard their 13th overall selection in the draft if they’re to sign Desmond.

AL Central Notes: White Sox, Uribe, Urshela, Freese, Rosario

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Here’s the latest from around the AL Central…

  • The White Sox and Cubs have both contacted the Rays about their pitching and outfield surplus, CBS Chicago’s Bruce Levine reports.  The Cubs’ discussions with the Rays have been well-documented this winter, though the Sox are a new entry among the many teams to touch base with the Rays about their young arms; Levine notes that at least 11 teams have asked Tampa Bay about pitchers.  The White Sox have needs at both corner outfield positions and at the back end of their rotation.  The all-lefty trio of Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and Carlos Rodon will headline the Pale Hose rotation, while John Danks, Jacob Turner and Erik Johnson are the current competitors for the fourth and fifth starters’ jobs.
  • The White Sox went on a seven-game winning streak from July 23 to July 29 last season, though this hot stretch right in the leadup to the trade deadline didn’t really change the team’s plans, GM Rick Hahn tells MLB.com’s Scott Merkin.  The decision to keep Jeff Samardzija at the deadline, for instance, wasn’t made because of the win streak; “nothing materialized and nothing was done in principal” in terms of a possible Samardzija trade, though the Sox were discussing him with teams.  “Those [talks] don’t necessarily happen July 27, 28, 29 and 30th. Those are going on for several weeks,” Hahn said.
  • The Indians have offered Juan Uribe around $3MM, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports as part of his latest subscription-only column.  Uribe has been linked to the Tribe and a few other teams, though salary will depend on whether or not Uribe is slated for a starting or backup role.  Cleveland seems likely to use Uribe and Giovanny Urshela in a time-share at third, so Uribe wouldn’t get the lion’s share of playing time.
  • Speaking of Urshela, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer looks at the Indians’ incumbent at the hot corner, noting that it’s too soon to write off the 24-year-old as an all-glove, no-bat player.  While Urshela’s minor league numbers aren’t impressive overall, he did post an .825 OPS over 528 PA at Double-A and Triple-A in 2014.  Pluto notes that Urshela battled injuries in 2015 and was probably promoted too quickly.  Urshela’s glove is so impressive that he can be a very useful everyday player if he hits even just a little, though Pluto notes that there are enough questions surrounding Urshela that the Tribe is justified in looking for an upgrade, especially in a season when team plans to contend.
  • The Indians are leaning more towards Uribe than David Freese to address their third base need, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes as part of a reader mailbag.  Freese entered the winter as the best of a fairly thin free agent third base market but there’s been very little news about him this winter, aside from some talks with the Angels before they acquired Yunel Escobar.
  • Randy Rosario was something of a surprising addition to the Twins’ 40-man roster in advance of the Rule 5 draft, but as Patrick Reusse of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes, the Twins are impressed by the young left-hander’s promise.  Rosario, 21, missed much of 2014 recovering from Tommy John surgery before returning to pitch 53 2/3 innings in A-ball last season.  The Dominican Republic product signed an $85K contract with the Twins in 2010.

Cubs Avoid Arbitration With Jake Arrieta

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The Cubs have agreed to a $10.7MM deal with righty Jake Arrieta to avoid arbitration, Jay Cohen of the Associated Press (Twitter link). There was plenty of incentive for both sides to get something done, as Arrieta filed at $13MM and the team countered at $7.5MM, setting the stage for what would have been quite a high-stakes hearing.

Instead, Arrieta will land $450K above the midpoint. As MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has explained in detail, Arrieta’s case provided a test for assessing arbitration raises. While the MLBTR arb model projected a $10.9MM salary after Arrieta’s monster 2015 season, Swartz revised that downward to $10.4MM as a limitation on the predicted record raise for a second-year-eligible player. Obviously, Arrieta landed right between those figures.

Arrieta, who is nearing 30, somehow managed to improve upon his stellar 2014 campaign with the Cubs, taking home a Cy Young award in the face of stiff competition. Chicago successfully reclaimed him after a 2013 deadline trade with the Orioles that also landed Pedro Strop in exchange for a few months of Scott Feldman.

Over his 229 innings in 2015, Arrieta worked to a 1.77 ERA with 9.3 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9. He also improved upon his groundball induction numbers, posting an excellent 56.2% grounder rate on balls in place. With the righty showing career-best average fastball velocity, a true five-pitch arsenal, and non-existent platoon issues, there weren’t many pitchers this side of Los Angeles that could even come close to Arrieta’s work last season.

Of course, it remains to be seen whether there is any realistic hope of a longer-term pact. Arrieta is eligible for arbitration one final time next winter, and then stands to reach free agency. He won’t exactly be a youthful entrant onto the market, but as Zack Greinke just proved, it’s possible to take home over $200MM at an even later point in one’s career. Certainly, Chicago will have a tough decision as to how high it would be willing to go to keep Arrieta around.

Arbitration Hearing Notes: Donaldson, Arrieta, Martinez, Britton, Astros

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The arbitration hearing between the Blue Jays and Josh Donaldson is set for Feb. 15, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter), giving the two sides 10 days to work out a multi-year deal. President Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins said last night that the two sides have been discussing such a pact, and the hearing deadline certainly gives the club motivation to strike a deal. The Blue Jays employ a file-and-trial approach to arbitration, which is to say that the team is one of many that have a policy against negotiating on one-year deals once figures are exchanged. That approach led to a hearing between the Blue Jays and Donaldson last year, and both sides undoubtedly would prefer to avoid a hearing for the second straight season. The Blue Jays won a hearing over Donaldson last winter, though he’ll have an American League MVP Award in his corner this season. Those interested in Donaldson’s case can check out an in-depth look from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, written as part of his Arbitration Breakdown series, prior to the exchange of figures.

Some more notes on various arbitration hearings around the league…

  • The Cubs and reigning NL Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta are on a tighter schedule, as Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago/670thescore.com reports (on Twitter). Arrieta’s arbitration hearing is set to come next Tuesday — Feb. 9. The $5.5MM gap between Arrieta’s submitted figure of $13MM and the Cubs’ $7.5MM counter is the largest of any case this year. Swartz also examined Arrieta’s case at length.
  • J.D. Martinez and the Tigers are continuing to discuss both one- and two-year deals, reports Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Martinez appears open to a considerably longer-term deal, having voiced a desire to spend the rest of his career with the Tigers. Martinez said last month that the two sides have discussed a long-term deal, but it’s unclear whether talks on a contract extending the club’s control beyond Martinez’s two remaining arbitration seasons has been seriously discussed. Swartz broke down Martinez’s case at length as well.
  • Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports that the Orioles and Zach Britton have a hearing set for Feb. 17 (Twitter link). The two sides are facing a fairly sizable $2.3MM gap between Britton’s $7.9MM figure and the club’s $5.6MM counter. If a deal can’t be reached, it’d mark the second straight season with an arb hearing for the Orioles, who won a hearing over Alejandro De Aza last February.
  • The Astros have arbitration hearings for Jason Castro and Evan Gattis set for Feb. 8 and Feb. 16, respectively, according to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (Twitter link). With Houston taking a file-and-trial approach to arbitration, both cases seem likely to reach a trial. Castro, in particular, seems destined for that outcome, as he’s a free agent following the season and thus unlikely to hammer out a multi-year deal.
  • While in many cases, the gap between the player and team submission appears trivial, there’s a reason that many teams take such a firm stance. MLBTR spoke to multiple Major League executives on the topic last February to get their explanation of the responsibility felt by teams in arbitration.

All of the remaining unresolved cases, as well as the exchange of figures and settled amounts for all 156 players that filed for arbitration can be viewed in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.

Minor MLB Transactions: 2/1/16

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Here are the day’s minor moves:

  • Righty Jonathan Pettibone has signed a minor league pact with the Cubs and received an invitation to MLB camp, per a club announcement. The 25-year-old contributed 100 1/3 solid innings as a starter for the 2013 Phillies, registering a 4.04 ERA with 5.9 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9. But significant shoulder issues interrupted that campaign, and he’s hardly pitched competitively since. Pettibone underwent surgery to repair a SLAP tear in 2014, had a second procedure done last summer, and then lost his 40-man spot earlier this winter.
  • The Mets have added catcher Raywilly Gomez on a minor league deal, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. The 26-year-old gets a major league camp invite. Gomez spent last year with the Angels’ Double-A affiliate, compiling a .291/.385/.336 slash in 284 plate appearances. He’s also spent time in the Phillies and Diamondbacks organizations.

International Notes: Lee, Fernandez, Heredia, Bell

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KBO and NPB slugger Dae-ho Lee is reportedly drawing interest from MLB organizations, and has put up some strong numbers over the years. But he remains a difficult player to peg, as a Korean scout tells MLBTR’s Zach Links (Twitter link). “Maybe Carlos Lee minus some power,” the scout said when asked for a comp. “It’s tough. He is not typical, that’s for sure.”

Here are some more international notes, courtesy of Baseball America’s Ben Badler, who has a significant update on currently (or soon-to-be) available Cuban talent that isn’t subject to bonus pool restrictions.

  • Cuban infielder Jose Fernandez has long had his share of attention, though he’s been delayed in reaching the majors. While he is on track to finally have that chance, once he achieves free agency, he’s had to delay his scheduled showcase, Badler notes. It appears that Fernandez has dengue fever, which would certainly make it hard for him to put his best foot forward for scouts. It’s worth noting, too, that it’s already proving to be a tough time to sign for established major league infielders, though it’s always hard to know how things will look in a few months’ time.
  • Outfielder Guillermo Heredia is still unsigned despite a lengthy stint on the open market, with teams not sold on his bat. The Cubs and Astros are among the teams that have had him in for private workouts, though, Badler says.
  • Badler provides plenty of interesting analysis and insight into a variety of other players, including “unorthodox” but “tooled up” infielder Luis Yander La O and outfielder Yadiel Hernandez (who Badler compares to Daniel Nava). Shortstop Luis Valdes would draw interest, says Badler, and appears to be off of the island and readying to attempt a big league career. Outfielder Urmani Guerra is set to showcase on February 4th and could profile as a fourth outfielder. And outfielder/infielder Maikel Caceres, 32, could get a shot with an organization. He is said to have drawn some interest from the Padres and Tigers.
  • Outfielder Alexei Bell has long been a successful player in Cuba and internationally, but like Lee he’s facing a hard-to-guess market situation as a player who is already well into his thirties. Of course, he’s still waiting to reach free agency and put on a showcase on February 15, so we don’t yet have much of an idea of what kind of interest he’ll receive, though Badler says that interest has waned as Bell has aged. If you want to get an idea of his physical skills, be sure to check out this highlight video.

Cubs Sign Nick Greenwood To Minor League Deal

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  • The Cubs and left-handed reliever Nick Greenwood have agreed to a minor league contract, MLBTR has learned. The 28-year-old Greenwood was originally drafted by the Padres in 2009 but traded to the Cardinals in the three-team Jake Westbrook/Corey Kluber/Ryan Ludwick trade back in 2010. Greenwood made a brief appearance in the Majors last season but was more heavily relied upon in 2014, when he pitched 36 innings with a 4.75 ERA and a 17-to-5 K/BB ratio for St. Louis. The Rhode Island product has been used as both a starter and a reliever throughout his minor league career, though he’ll return to working primarily as a reliever in 2016 after starting for much of the 2015 campaign. Greenwood has a lifetime 4.99 ERA at the Triple-A level, where he’s averaged 4.9 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 in 313 2/3 innings of work. Greenwood’s deal doesn’t contain an invite to big league Spring Training, so he’ll hope to earn his way back to the Majors by replicating his 2014 performance from Triple-A.

Cubs, White Sox Continue To Monitor Dexter Fowler's Market

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The White Sox and Cubs continue to monitor the market for free agent center fielder Dexter Fowler, writes Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com/CBS Chicago. Both clubs are checking in on Fowler’s market on a daily basis, Levine adds. Levine spoke to one executive from another team that called the Cubs the likeliest landing spot for Fowler, though based on the anonymous quote, that appears to be purely speculative as opposed to any form of definitive knowledge. The report notes that Fowler could settle for a one- or two-year deal (possibly with a player option, in keeping with the offseason’s opt-out trend), although that, too, appears to be fairly speculative in nature. While Levine and the unnamed exec feel that Fowler should have accepted the qualifying offer, it’s easy to make such claims with the benefit of hindsight, and I’d contest that no such claims can be made until the parameters of Fowler’s eventual deal are known. Even if Fowler comes in at a number lesser than the value of the qualifying offer, the upside in testing the market (tens of millions of dollars) significantly outweighed a possible difference of a few million dollars, in my eyes.

Brewers, Angels, Rangers, Cubs Among Possible Austin Jackson Suitors

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The Brewers, Angels, and Rangers are among the teams that have at least some level of interest in outfielder Austin Jackson, according to a report from ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). Meanwhile, he adds, the Cubs could conceivably bring Jackson back “for the right price.”

We haven’t heard much at all on the market for Jackson, who has endured  a tough run of late but remains an intriguing player as he nears his 29th birthday. He’s queued up behind Dexter Fowler among center fielders, and Fowler could well be waiting to see what happens with Yoenis Cespedes before he commits to a contract.

But Jackson is a notable free agent in his own right. He entered the offseason placing 35th on the top-fifty list of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, landing with a one-year, $12MM prediction. As Dierkes noted at the time, it has always been unclear whether Jackson would land with some kind of multi-year arrangement or instead take a one-year pillow deal in hopes of finding a bigger contract next winter.

At his best, Jackson has delivered pop and speed to go with a quality glove in center — rather a difficult mix to find. Indeed, he tallied over 15 rWAR in his first three years in the league. Things have trended downward since, as Jackson owns a cumulative .269/.319/.382 batting line since the start of 2013.

While teams probably won’t be expecting a return to his established ceiling, even the diminished Jackson looks to be a useful performer. He’s still a capable center fielder with near a league-average bat, and has traditionally performed about as well against both left-handed and right-handed pitching. And it isn’t difficult to see the reasoning behind the interest from the clubs that appear in Crasnick’s report.

As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained in today’s podcast (around the 21:00 mark), in fact, Jackson looks like a nice fit with Texas since he could fill in all across the outfield. Los Angeles has long been seeking a solution in left field, while the Brewers’ could certainly stand to add a solid veteran in center — potentially with the hope of flipping him at the deadline or extending a qualifying offer after the season. And Chicago obviously was interested enough to add Jackson late last year. He’d possibly add an up-the-middle option to the Cubs’ outfield mix, especially if the team were to strike a trade involving Jorge Soler.

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