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Cubs Notes: Arrieta, David Ross, Tyson Ross

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Jake Arrieta’s agreement on a one-year, $15.6375MM deal this week suggests his time with the Cubs could be reaching its end, Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago writes. Arrieta is eligible for free agency at the end of the season, and his agent, Scott Boras, had previously said he and the Cubs would talk about an extension when the two sides discussed Arrieta’s 2017 salary this month. “The timeline is kind of coming to an end as far as as leading up to free agency,” Arrieta said yesterday. “I am here for one more year and I am going to enjoy every moment of it.” Still, he didn’t rule out the possibility that the two sides could still reach a deal. “If it happens, it happens. I don’t know where we stand. I really don’t. We do have some time to maybe work something out. If it doesn’t, I will become a free agent,” he said. Here’s more from out of Chicago.

  • The Cubs have announced that they’ve hired David Ross as a special assistant to baseball operations. The 39-year-old Ross, of course, retired as a player after a strong 2016 season capped with a World Series Game 7 homer, and he’s beloved in Chicago. (He carried the World Series trophy at the beginning of this weekend’s Cubs Convention yesterday.) He’s looking forward to his new role, which seems open-ended — MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat writes that Ross will contribute in a variety of roles, including scouting, development and front-office work. “I don’t even know what I’m doing,” Ross says. “I feel like there’s a hall-of-fame front office and a relationship with guys who I have a bond with. They offered to help me grow in my baseball knowledge and try to learn different aspects of what goes on in the organization. I’m really going to be listening.”
  • The Cubs recently lost out on Tyson Ross to the Rangers, but president of baseball operations Theo Epstein says the team still hopes to add starting pitching, as MLB.com’s Phil Rogers tweets. The Cubs “made it a difficult decision” for Ross, extending him an offer similar to the $6MM plus incentives he got from Texas, tweets CSN Chicago’s Patrick Mooney. Ross, formerly a top starter with the Padres, could have provided a strong back-end option for the Cubs provided he’d made a solid comeback from the shoulder troubles that cost him most of his 2016 season and resulted in surgery in October to relieve thoracic outlet syndrome.

Cubs Avoid Arbitration With Hector Rondon

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  • Hector Rondon and the Cubs avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $5.8MM, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (on Twitter). He clears his $5.7MM projection by a small margin of $100K on the heels of a season that saw him post a 3.53 ERA, 18 saves, 10.2 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 51 innings of relief. He’s controlled through 2018. Heyman tweets that the Cubs also dodged arb with Justin Grimm on a $1.825MM deal that is a near-mirror image of his $1.8MM projection. He’s a free agent after the 2019 season.

2017 Arbitration Filing Numbers

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MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.

After a busy day of dealmaking, 152 players (at last check) have reached agreement on arbitration salaries for the coming season. But 36 other tendered players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still settle before their hearings (which will take place in early to mid-February). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint.

We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining — those where the player files for at least $4.5MM — in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker. We’ll update this list as the figures are reported:

Cubs Avoid Arbitration With Jake Arrieta

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The Cubs have agreed on a salary to avoid arbitration with star righty Jake Arrieta, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). He’ll receive $15.6375MM in his final trip through the arb process.

MLBTR’s model had projected Arrieta to earn $16.8MM, but as MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz explained recently, it seemed likelier that he’d land closer to the $16MM level when analyzing comps. The deal exceeds the $15.525MM contract reached by Max Scherzer and the Tigers before the 2014 season, though unsurprisingly Arrieta comes nowhere near the year-over-year raise achieved that year by Scherzer.

It remains unclear whether Chicago will be able to work out a longer-term arrangement with the talented righty, who is now 30 years of age. He didn’t come anywhere near repeating his 2015 Cy Young campaign in his most recent season, but Arrieta still turned in a productive year. Over 197 1/3 innings, he pitched to a 3.10 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9.

Greg Holland Seeks Two-Year Deal With Opt-Out

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Free-agent righty Greg Holland is arguably the highest-upside reliever left on the open market, and Jon Heyman of Fan Rag provides some notable updates on his situation. The 31-year-old is in a somewhat unusual spot as a free agent, in that he brings a sparkling track record but is also seeking to return from a long layoff due to Tommy John surgery.

Given his health situation and also the evident interest around the league, Holland seeks a two-year deal that would allow him to opt out after the first season, according to Heyman. That’s the same structure that Brian Wilson landed with the Dodgers before the 2014 season, though he had made it back to the hill late in the prior campaign.

In Holland’s case, there’s perhaps greater uncertainty, but also greater upside. He took a step back in his most recent action, in 2015, but that may well have been due to the elbow issues that led to his surgery. Over the prior four campaigns, Holland was one of the game’s very best relievers, as he compiled 256 1/3 innings of 1.86 ERA pitching with 12.6 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9.

There’s interest in Holland’s proposed two-year arrangement, per the report. Among the teams still pursuing him are the Dodgers, Nationals, Rockies, Brewers, Reds, and Rays. While the Cubs showed prior interest, it’s not clear whether they are still in. And the Royals have also indicated a desire to bring back their former closer, though it seems that the team’s payroll situation may not allow for a competitive bid.

That group of organizations would presumably offer Holland a variety of possible roles. The Nationals, Rockies, Brewers, Reds, and Royals (if they’re involved) could all promise him first dibs on closing roles, while the Dodgers and perhaps the Cubs are more likely to view the veteran as a setup man. Tampa Bay, perhaps, might be most interested in the event that it strikes a deal for incumbent closer Alex Colome. Whether and to what extent the chance to take hold of the ninth is an important factor in Holland’s decisionmaking is not immediately clear.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/9/17

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Some minor moves from around baseball to kick off the week…

  • KBO’s Lotte Giants have re-signed left-hander Brooks Raley and signed second baseman/third baseman Andy Burns out of the Blue Jays organization, per Jee-ho Yoo of Korea’s Yonhap News Agency. Raley will receive $850K to return for his third season, while Burns will be venturing overseas for the first time in his career. Raley, 28, pitched 38 1/3 innings with the Cubs from 2012-13 and spent time in the Twins and Angels organizations after being claimed off waivers following that stint. Raley has turned in a 4.06 ERA while averaging 175 innings, 7.0 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in the past two seasons with Lotte. As for Burns, the 26-year-old made his MLB debut last season but tallied just seven plate appearances in Toronto. He’s a career .263/.320/.363 hitter in 237 contests at the Triple-A level.
  • The Pirates announced a list of non-roster invites this morning, which includes former Rockies catcher Jackson Williams. The 30-year-old saw brief action with the Rox from 2014-15 (30 plate appearances) and has batted .232/.303/.356 in just over 1200 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s halted 36 percent of stolen base attempts against him in his minor league career and draws average to slightly below-average marks in terms of pitch framing, per Baseball Prospectus.
  • Former Cardinals/White Sox right-hander Maikel Cleto has signed a minors pact with the Cubs, as his representatives at Jackson Management Group noted, on Twitter. The hard-throwing 27-year-old’s last MLB work came with the ChiSox in 2014 and resulted in a 4.60 ERA with 9.8 K/9 against an unsightly 7.1 BB/9. Cleto averaged 97.1 mph on his fastball that year and doesn’t have difficulty missing bats (10.1 K/9 in his Triple-A career), but walks have been a persistent issue for him in the Majors and in the minors. He split the 2016 season between the Mexican League and the Braves organization. In 21 innings with Atlanta’s Triple-A affiliate, he posted a 2.14 ERA with 31 strikeouts against 13 walks.

Arbitration Breakdown: Jake Arrieta

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Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Jake Arrieta enters his third and final year of arbitration this winter with a hefty $10.7MM base salary following his 2015 Cy Young Award season. While his 2016 campaign was less stellar, Arrieta still posted a very respectable 3.10 ERA in 197.1 innings, along with an 18-8 record and 190 strikeouts. As a result, my model projects him to get a $6.1MM raise and earn $16.8MM for 2017.

Finding comparable pitchers to Arrieta’s platform season is tricky. His $6.1MM raise would be the second-highest ever for a third-year eligible starting pitcher — Max Scherzer got an $8.8MM raise after his Cy Young Award-winning season three years ago. Scherzer’s 21-3 record, 2.90 ERA, 214.1 innings and 240 strikeouts (plus the Cy Young Award itself) combine to put an obvious ceiling above Arrieta. There is no way Arrieta is going to get anywhere near Scherzer’s $8.8MM raise, but where the Cubs ace falls below that number is difficult to discern.

Aside from Scherzer, the next highest raise in this service class (excluding the anomalous and stale case of Carlos Zambrano in 2007) belongs to Jeff Samardzija, who got a $4.46MM raise in 2015.  Samardzija posted just a 7-13 record that season, but with a 2.99 ERA in 219.2 innings to go along with 202 strikeouts. While Arrieta’s 2016 season fell twenty innings short of Samardzija’s 2014, Arrieta’s 11 extra wins suggest he should easily top Samardzija’s raise.

Doug Fister in the 2014-15 offseason could be an interesting comparable because his win total is more applicable to Arrieta’s case. Fister received a $4.2MM raise after winning 16 games in 2014.  Fister’s 2.41 ERA bested Arrieta’s mark from this past season, though Arrieta significantly outpaced Fister in innings (197.1 to 164) and strikeouts (190 to 98).  Alfredo Simon got a $4.05MM raise that same year with 15 wins and 196.1 innings, but his 3.44 ERA is less impressive than Arrieta’s, and his 127 strikeouts are far weaker too.

One plausible comparable could be Justin Masterson, who got a $4.07MM raise after a strong 2013 campaign — 14-10 record, 3.45 ERA, and 195 strikeouts in 193 IP.  While the innings and strikeouts are a reasonable comparison, the record and ERA are clearly a step behind Arrieta.

Overall, we see a very obvious ceiling at $8.8MM with Scherzer way above Arrieta, and a series of pitchers in the low $4MM-raise range that clearly represent a floor. Where Arrieta lands is a mystery, but it would surprise me if he achieved the $6.1MM raise as projected by the model. I think a $5MM raise makes a lot of sense based on these comparables, and maybe $5.5MM since he clearly has a much better case than all of the $4MM-raise pitchers, though $6.1 million seems a little too high. Look for Arrieta to land somewhere closer to $16MM in 2017 than the nearly $17MM the model expects.

Cubs Sign Carlos Corporan, Re-Sign Munenori Kawasaki

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  • The Cubs have signed catcher Carlos Corporan and re-signed infielder Munenori Kawasaki to minor league contracts. Corporan spent several years as a backup in Houston and last appeared in the Majors in 2015 with Texas; he hit .197/.246/.333 at two Triple-A stops in 2016. The 35-year-old Kawasaki played briefly for the Cubs last season and spent most of the year playing shortstop with Triple-A Iowa, where he batted .255/.352/.312. The popular former Blue Jays infielder has now appeared in parts of five seasons in the big leagues, as well as 11 in Japan.

Latest On Cubs’ Search For Rotation Depth

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The Cubs intend to deploy a six-man rotation at times throughout the life of the 2017 season as they look to lessen the workload of a rotation that shouldered a considerable burden in the postseason, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Chicago’s interest in right-hander Tyson Ross — Sherman, like Yahoo’s Jeff Passan and FOX’s Ken Rosenthal, calls the Cubs a finalist for Ross — is tied to this thinking. However, he adds that even if Ross ultimately signs elsewhere, the Cubs will pursue additional rotation depth to ease the workload on its current starters.

As it stands, the Cubs project to have Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, John Lackey and Mike Montgomery in their Opening Day rotation. Arrieta had never thrown more than 170 innings in a full season (between the Majors and minors) prior to joining the Cubs, but he’s now thrown 468 1/3 innings between the regular season and the playoffs in each of the past two seasons. Lester, similarly, has taken on a high workload, tallying 457 1/3 frames between the postseason and regular season dating back to 2015. Hendricks, meanwhile, posted a career-high 190 regular-season innings and added 25 1/3 more in the playoffs, bringing his year-long total to 215 1/3 (up from his previous high of 180). Significant workloads are nothing new for Lackey, but the grizzled vet is now 38 years old and missed a couple of weeks with a shoulder strain late in the season.

If the Cubs aren’t able to land Ross, Sherman writes that Chicago could look to bring Travis Wood back into the fold as a swingman and spot starter. Wood obviously brings plenty of familiarity to the Cubs, having spent the past five seasons with the team. Wood was pushed out of the Cubs’ rotation after a rough 2014 season and poor start to 2015, but he did throw 200 very good innings for Chicago in 2013 and average 30 starts per year from 2012-14. From my vantage point, he’d be an interesting option as a starter for teams with more clear-cut rotation vacancies, though perhaps a return to the reigning World Series champs would outweigh the opportunity to have a definitive rotation job elsewhere. Sherman notes that Rule 5 lefty Caleb Smith (selected out of the Yankees organization by the Brewers and traded to Chicago) also intrigues the Cubs and may get a look in a swingman role this spring.

If Chicago wants to look elsewhere for someone to fill that role, there are a number of options remaining on the market with recent starting and relief experience. Yusmeiro Petit, old friend Scott Feldman, Vance Worley, Dillon Gee and Jorge De La Rosa are just a few low-cost options that could potentially fit the bill. Jason Hammel, whose option whose market has surprisingly not developed much after Chicago bought out his option, makes some logical sense as a candidate to return if he’s willing to accept a one-year offer (at a higher rate than the other listed names). And, of course, the trade market can never be ruled out. (It is, after all, where the Cubs procured Montgomery this past July.)

Ross brings the most upside of the free agents, but one has to wonder his thoughts on potentially being in a six-man rotation as opposed to receiving the opportunity to rebuild his stock by taking the ball every fifth day. Then again, as mentioned with regard to Wood, the notion of pitching for a clear-cut World Series contender carries allure for any free agent.

The Cubs’ desire to incorporate a sixth starter with more regularity isn’t exactly new. Manager Joe Maddon utilized Montgomery as a starter late in the season last year and has voiced a belief that more teams will begin to look to six-man rotations in the season’s second half in the years to come (as the Chicago Tribune’s Mark Gonzales wrote last September). While the April schedule will present plenty of off-days and allow the Cubs to organically incorporate some extra rest into their starters’ schedules, that luxury is long gone by midseason as many teams deal with pitching injuries both minor and major.

Rangers, Cubs, Nationals Pursuing Tyson Ross

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11:30am: FOX’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that the Nationals, too, covet Ross but are considered a “long shot” to land his services. Joe Ross, Tyson’s younger brother, is currently penciled into the Nationals’ rotation, so there’s some appeal beyond financial incentive for Tyson to ponder a match with the Nats. Then again, Washington also lacks a clear spot in the rotation for him. In addition to the younger Ross brother, the Nats project to utilize Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Tanner Roark and Gio Gonzalez in their starting five next season (though Gonzalez has been mentioned as a possible trade candidate at various times this winter).

10:25am: A deal between the Rangers and Ross was not close as of last night, according to Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Ross did meet with the Rangers yesterday, and the team considers him the best available starting pitcher in free agency, per Wilson. However, the Rangers aren’t expecting Ross to be ready to open the season and aren’t likely to offer anything beyond a one-year deal.

JAN. 5, 7:20am: Yahoo’s Jeff Passan reports that Ross also met with the Cubs shortly before yesterday’s meeting with Texas (Twitter link). The Rangers and Cubs are considered the two favorites to sign the right-hander, according to Passan.

Presumably, once Ross is healthy enough to take the mound, he would push left-hander Mike Montgomery from the fifth spot in the rotation back to the bullpen. That’d give the Cubs a rotation consisting of Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, John Lackey and Ross, with Montgomery standing as the first line of defense in the event of an injury.

While there’s certainly plenty about Montgomery that makes him an intriguing rotation candidate, he’s undeniably had more success in the bullpen to this point in his career. In 125 2/3 innings out of the rotation, the former top prospect has a 4.23 ERA with 7.0 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and a 52.8 percent ground-ball rate. In 65 2/3 innings of relief work, though, he’s logged a pristine 2.10 earned run average to go along with 8.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and a 58.9 percent ground-ball rate.

Looking beyond the pure numbers, the Cubs also have a clear need for some additional left-handed relief. As it stands, Brian Duensing, Caleb Smith and Rob Zastryzny are the top candidates to serve as southpaw options out of manager Joe Maddon’s bullpen.

JAN. 4, 4:00pm: Ross is visiting the Rangers today, tweets Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. Per Heyman, Ross is still choosing among six potential suitors, though he’s getting closer to making a decision.

3:54pm: Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets that Ross’ asking price has dropped since the Winter Meetings, and talks are indeed advancing between Ross’ camp and the Rangers.

3:50pm: The Rangers are being aggressive in their pursuit of free-agent righty Tyson Ross as they try to strike up a deal, reports MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan (on Twitter). Talks between the two sides “are definitely heating up,” Sullivan adds, further noting that the Rangers “really like” Ross.

[Related: Texas Rangers Depth Chart]

Ross, 30 in April, didn’t pitch last season after Opening Day as he battled ongoing shoulder problems that culminated in surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome. Not wishing to pay him a repeat of last year’s $9.6MM salary, the Padres cut bait on Ross and non-tendered him, though they were said to be amenable to negotiating a return with a lower guarantee. Ross, however, has reportedly been seeking a comparable $9-11MM on a one-year deal in free agency (before incentives), and roughly two-thirds of the league has expressed some level of interest.

The reason for that widespread interest isn’t difficult to see. While Ross undoubtedly represents a roll of the metaphorical dice given his recent surgery, he’s expected to be ready at or near the beginning of the season and was one of the National League’s better all-around performers on the mound in the years leading up to his injury. From 2013-15, Ross totaled 516 2/3 innings for the Padres, working to a 3.07 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a gaudy 58.2 percent ground-ball rate.

The Rangers, as it stands, project to trot out Yu Darvish, Cole Hamels, Martin Perez, Andrew Cashner and A.J. Griffin in their 2017 rotation. However, Cashner is coming off a dismal season split between the Padres and Marlins, while Griffin was a non-tender candidate himself (5.07 ERA in 119 innings in 2016) but was retained quite possibly due to what is expected to be a low price tag in arbitration. There’s no guarantee, of course, that Ross will be ready to begin the season, though it stands to reason that he’d bump Griffin out of the starting mix when he’s ultimately ready to pitch at the Major League level. That could push Griffin to long relief, though his projected $1.9MM salary is perfectly reasonable for a pitcher in that role.

In addition to the Rangers and Padres, the Cubs, Pirates, Twins, Mariners, Giants and Indians have all been connected to Ross to varying extents over the course of the winter thus far.

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