While there’s no evidence of progress between the Cubs and Jake Arrieta on a new contract, the righty provided some interesting thoughts on his outlook to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. Arrieta says he believes he may be able to land “a six- or seven-year deal” when he does sign, whether that’s with Chicago or another organization via free agency. And the 31-year-old adds that he’s looking ahead to a lengthy career, saying: “I feel very confident I can pitch until I’m 40. I do everything possible to make sure I’m healthy and durable.” Arrieta isn’t putting any time restrictions on talks with his current team, telling Heyman he’d consider offers at any time while also noting that he doesn’t want his contract situation to distract from the season to come.
Cubs Rumors
Cubs Release Maikel Cleto
- The Cubs announced that they’ve granted right-hander Maikel Cleto his release. The hard-throwing 27-year-old hasn’t appeared in the Majors since tossing 29 1/3 innings for the 2014 White Sox. Since that time, Cleto has had some Triple-A success in both the White Sox and Braves organizations, logging a combined 2.75 ERA with 11.5 K/9 against 4.6 BB/9. Cleto has never had much of an issue missing bats, but his control has always been problematic for years. He owns a 6.60 ERA and a 58-to-30 K/BB ratio in 45 Major League innings.
Prospect Ian Happ Looks To Be Versatile
- With so many young Cubs stars already in place around the diamond, prospect Ian Happ is looking to help his chances of finding a regular role by playing multiple positions a la Ben Zobrist, Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com writes. “He’s a perfect example to a young player on how to stay in the game and contribute. That’s who I want to emulate,” Happ said. Originally drafted as an outfielder and second baseman as the ninth overall pick in the 2015 draft, Happ has already played second and all three outfield spots in the minors, plus he has been doing some work as a third baseman this spring. In another piece on Happ, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat notes that Happ is developing well at second and is already showing some fine skills at the plate. Happ is yet another impressive youngster in the Cubs’ pipeline, as he featured on top-100 prospect lists from MLB.com (28th), Baseball Prospectus (54th), Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law (both 63rd).
Cubs, Kris Bryant Agree To Record Pre-Arb Deal
The Cubs have agreed with star third baseman Kris Bryant on a record-setting pre-arbitration salary, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports. Fresh off of a year in which he won the National League’s Most Valuable Player award, Bryant will take home $1.05MM.
Chicago also shared some of its World Series wealth with righty Kyle Hendricks, who’ll earn a hefty $760,500, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Hendricks was another key performer for the Cubs, turning in an outstanding campaign that saw him land third in the N.L. Cy Young voting. Larger-than-usual salaries are also on tap for Addison Russell ($644K), Javier Baez ($609K), and Kyle Schwarber ($565,500), per Wittenmyer’s report.
Bryant’s payday doesn’t blow the prior record out of the water, but does land a bit north of Mike Trout’s 2014 salary of $1MM. Recently, standout Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts was renewed at $950K after his own high-quality season. Notably, unlike Trout and Betts, Bryant has yet to achieve his second full year of MLB service — owing to the team’s controversial decision to delay his MLB debut in 2015.
The 25-year-old star will reach arbitration next year, though, as he’ll easy qualify for Super Two status. If he posts anything approaching the numbers from his first two season — including a composite .284/.377/.522 batting line and 65 total home runs — Bryant will earn a massive raise in his first trip through the arb process.
If the sides discuss a larger contract, Trout could again provide a target. His six-year, $144.5MM pact, which replaced the above-noted arb deal in 2014, was the second-largest contract ever given to a 2+ player. Buster Posey still holds the record for that service class at $159MM over eight years. Odds are that the Scott Boras-repped Bryant would be looking for quite a bit more money than either of those two players; certainly, it’s arguable that the market has moved northward since that time, and the Trout contract seems a notable bargain in retrospect for a player of that quality (even given the remaining club control the organization had).
Hendricks, 27, was in the 2+ arb class, but fell well shy of Super Two eligibility. After a solid 2015 effort, he turned one of the most surprising campaigns in the league last year. Over 190 frames, Hendricks worked to a National League-leading 2.13 ERA with 8.1 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. He, too, will be in line for big first-year arb earnings if he can replicate that success.
World Series Win Bumps Maddon's Salary
The Cubs’ World Series victory triggered an escalator clause in manager Joe Maddon’s five-year, $25MM contract, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. Maddon’s annual salary will now be bumped from $5MM to $6MM in the final three years of the deal, though the skipper claims to ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers that he wasn’t even aware of the clause. “I’ve never seen a paycheck,” Maddon tells Rogers.
D-Backs Assistant GM Jared Porter Traces His Path to Arizona
A 69-win season spelled an abrupt end for the D-backs front office regime that was led by chief baseball officer Tony La Russa (who remains in the organization in another capacity), general manager Dave Stewart and senior vice president De Jon Watson.
Enter new Arizona GM Mike Hazen, who tapped former standout Boston execs Amiel Sawdaye and Jared Porter, along with former Red Sox bench coach Torey Lovullo, to remake a franchise that may have lost its way.
We caught up to Porter, Arizona’s senior vice president and assistant GM, in order to get a peek into the changes the Diamondbacks are implementing this season.
But in part one of this interview, Porter traces his remarkable fortune in the game so far, including four championships (three in Boston, one with the Chicago Cubs). Is he a lucky charm? Well, Diamondbacks fans can be heartened that in his first seasons in Boston and Chicago, he helped the clubs snap World Series droughts of 86 and 108 years, respectively:
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Much is made of the Boston roots of Mike Hazen, Amiel Sawdaye, you, and even new manager Torey Lovullo. Given the different roles you all played with the Red Sox, did you conceive of a time when you might all be together again, with commensurate promotions?
I’m very fortunate to have been able to learn from and work with so many talented executives in Boston. It’s one of those things where you don’t realize just how much your career can be shaped by who you work for and learn from early on—and it’s immeasurable.
In my case, I happened to get an internship working with and for the best executive in baseball history, Theo Epstein. The culture that Theo created in Boston (and now in Chicago, with Jed Hoyer) is so unique. I feel like I’ve been part of an incredible and captivating baseball operations think tank ever since I started as an intern with Boston in 2004, with everybody working as hard as they can and trying to learn as much as they can, with the freedom and comfort to express opinions and explore both old and new ways of thought with regards to player evaluation, acquisition, development and analysis. I’m forever grateful to Ben Cherington, for hiring me and giving me my first opportunity.
That think tank culture is certainly something we are going to try as hard as we can to replicate in Arizona. Along with others such as Theo, Jed, Ben, Raquel Ferreira, Brian O’Halloran, Jason McLeod, and Allard Baird, Mike and Amiel were big parts of that culture, with their fingerprints all over Boston’s World Series championships and current roster.
Did you have an inkling that you were valued to such a degree by Mike that he would seek you out in Arizona as he did? When you left Boston after the 2015 season, leaving them behind for a year, was there any sort of exit interview/between the lines/wink-wink where you had a sense you might work together again down the line?
Things never seem to happen in a linear manner when it comes to a career path, so there was never any sort of “wink-wink,” but Mike, Amiel, and myself have always been very close and have always enjoyed working together. With that said, the preexisting relationships I had when I went to the Cubs along with some very strong ones I developed over the year-plus I spent in Chicago made it a very tough place to leave, on both a personal and professional level.
I think the Cubs will be just fine without me, though!
What was your adjustment moving from a Ben Cherington front office in Boston to Theo’s in Chicago? Given the enormous successes both teams have had, there must be a lot of similarities. But is there a single contrast that stands out?
We all worked together for so many years in Boston, making the front offices very similar in style and goals. It was a smooth transition from Boston to Chicago, given the similar styles and scouting/development infrastructures coming from what Theo instilled in all of us in Boston.
The biggest difference between the two front offices is that the Cubs have really pressed forward with regards to analytics and new forms of data analysis, because Theo was able to pick up from he left off in Boston while starting from scratch in Chicago. Data analysis is nonstop for them, with a perfectly designed platform to access all of this information. From minor league coaches, to scouts, to major league coaching staff, the analytics make everyone more efficient and knowledgeable. It’s an area that we have already started, and will continue to press forward with, on the Diamondbacks.
Does Theo give you crap for walking into a 103-win team and cherry picking a ring?
[Laughing] No, he doesn’t. But I give it to myself!
Admittedly, it was great timing for me. I’m really lucky that he and Jed gave me the chance to be a part of winning a World Series with the Cubs. The ring is a nice bonus, but the amount I was able to learn being around those guys again for another year-plus, and being ingrained into the great culture they (along with manager Joe Maddon) have created in Chicago is my biggest takeaway. Theo’s probably given me more crap for cherry picking from the culture, and I don’t blame him. They have a great thing going there.
As long as we’re talking Cubs, can you give me your personal Game 7 experience?
Oh man, what an incredible game and series. [Ex-Cubs pitcher and current team exec] Ryan Dempster said it best on the bus ride from Progressive Field to the airport after the game, something to the effect of, “There’s no way the Cubs were going to win their first World Series in 108 years without some sort of dramatic story within the game.”
And it’s true. The twists and turns throughout the Series and specifically in Game 7 were captivating and gut-wrenching. The Indians were and are a great team; it could have gone either way. I’ve been fortunate to be a part of a few world champions over the years, so the best part for me is seeing players, coaches, front office executives and scouts win one for the first time. To me, that provides an incredible amount of gratitude. It serves as a reminder of how tough it is to be part of a team that wins it, and also how lucky all of us who work in baseball are to be a part of it.
Speaking of breaking 108-year droughts, do you practice any particular superstitions in spite of being an analytics-driven kind of fella?
I don’t want to say too much here—and acknowledging that it’s the players who win games on the field—but we’ll do just about anything in the front office suite during a game to change our luck and try to will the team to get a few runs. Typically it involves a lot of hot dogs, chocolate cake, and even the occasional vegetable crudité and tapenade combo.
Part two of this Q&A, which focuses on Porter’s preferred statistics/metrics for player evaluation, his front-office responsibilities in Arizona and the Diamondbacks’ 2017 roster, will run tomorrow afternoon.
Follow Brett Ballantini on Twitter: @PoetryinPros.
Photo courtesy of Sarah Sachs / Arizona Diamondbacks communications department.
Quick Hits: Scouting Changes, Data Sources, Pitching Strategy
It has been a quiet few days in the transactional world, but there are plenty of interesting things being written with possible implications for the player market. Here are a few pieces well worth a read:
- ESPN.com’s Keith Law (Insider link) takes a look at players who entered camp with notable tweaks to their respective games, rounding up the impressions of scouts from around the game. Diamondbacks righty Taijuan Walker is said to have impressed with his latest mechanical overhaul, and he’s showing improved fastball command along with a sharper cut fastball. For White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson, the change has come more on the mental side; it seems he’s improving his ability to recognize pitches and decide whether to swing. The results haven’t been all that promising for Cubs outfielder Jason Heyward, Law suggests, who still seems to lack bat speed despite a newly reworked swing.
- R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports writes about the sources of the data that we read so much about. Beyond the obvious and well-known sources, there’s also a cottage industry of individuals and small companies who sell various kinds of information to ballclubs. While burgeoning in-house analytical departments have obviated the need for certain third-party services, the appetite for data has led to new avenues. It’s a fascinating and lengthy look at this important topic that you’ll want to read in full.
- With research from Willie Harrison and John Salmon suggesting that the home-team advantage shows up most prominently in the poor performances of visiting starters in the first inning, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs examines the possible implications. Cameron suggests that there could be merit to the idea of utilizing a reliever to throw an inning to open games for visiting teams, before turning things over to the “starter” in the bottom of the second. While that’d be a tough strategy to implement over most of the season, it could be of greater function when rosters expand or during the postseason.
- For individual pitchers, we know that stuff doesn’t always equate to results. Eno Sarris of Fangraphs addresses that general topic by looking closely at the differing 2016 seasons put up by Reds pitchers Cody Reed and Dan Straily (the latter of whom has since been traded to the Marlins). Sarris’s breakdown suggests that predictability — or, the lack thereof — is an important ingredient for a major league pitcher, regardless of what kind of raw offerings he possesses. For Straily, being able to throw offspeed pitches for strikes in hitters’ counts last year was an important part of his renaissance. In Reed’s case, Sarris discovers, he relied too heavily not just on his fastball, but in throwing it to a certain spot (outer half). Be sure to check out the full piece for all the details and nuance in the analysis.
Cubs, Addison Russell Agree To 2017 Contract; Still In Talks With Kris Bryant
- The Cubs and Addison Russell agreed to a one-year, $644K deal for the 2017 season, Heyman reports in a separate piece. (For specifics on the pre-arbitration process, check out these MLBTR posts from Zach Links in 2014 and Jeff Todd in 2015, respectively.) The agreement gives Russell a nice bump above the $535K minimum salary, a year before he becomes eligible for salary arbitration. Russell hit .238/.321/.417 with 21 homers over 598 PA for the World Series champs last season, a below-average offensive performance as per the wRC+ metric (95) that was more than made up for on defense — Russell posted 19 Defensive Runs Saved and a +14.3 UZR/150 over 1262 2/3 innings at shortstop last season.
- The Cubs are still in talks with Kris Bryant, who is also entering his last pre-arbitration year. It’s probably no surprise that negotiations with Bryant and his agent Scott Boras are taking a bit longer than usual given Bryant’s outstanding track record over his young career. Heyman suggests Bryant could approach the record contract given to a pre-arb player (the $1MM between Mike Trout and the Angels prior to the 2014 season).
Jason Hammel Discusses Departure From Cubs
Righty Jason Hammel discussed his transition from the Cubs to the Royals with reporters including Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com. The veteran starter says he wasn’t ready to give up starting at this stage, which may have been in the plans had he remained in Chicago. “I felt like I had proven myself over and over and over again for three years there,” he said. “It is what it is. It’s the business side of baseball. And I’m very happy that I’m over here with these guys.” Whether there’s any sense of bitterness, Hammel says he won’t “hold grudges” or “burn a bridge;” he still owns a home in the city and suggests he could even end up returning at some point later in his career.
- That’s not the only storyline connecting the 2016 champs and their predecessors; there was also a rather notable deal that sent outfielder Jorge Soler to the Royals while delivering star closer Wade Davis to the Cubs. Naturally, the man tasked with harnessing Soler’s evident talent is Dale Sveum — the hitting coach who just happened to have managed the Cubbies before landing in Kansas City. “I still think he’s developing into what he possibly could be,” Sveum said of his new protege. “He’s been very good in camp so far, trying to make adjustments in his legs and things like that, knowing the issues that come with some of the mechanics he’s been using. But like I said, it’s still a development thing. As much as we’d all like to think (otherwise), it’s not a polished product, by no means.”
Heyman’s Latest: Nationals, Alvarez, Cubs, CarGo, Yankees, Colome
The latest notes column from Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports kicks off with an extremely early look at the potential market for Bryce Harper in two years, with Heyman listing the Yankees, Nationals and Phillies as teams that many within the industry think will vie for the 2015 NL MVP in free agency. The in-depth look at Harper focuses on the 24-year-old’s improved clubhouse demeanor and maturity in recent years and also adds more fuel to the rumors that Harper played part of the 2016 season through a shoulder injury that he’s reluctant to discuss. Heyman also touches base on Derek Norris later in the column, noting that there may be a better chance that Norris is simply released than traded. Washington agreed to a $4.25MM salary with Norris to avoid arbitration, but because arb contracts aren’t fully guaranteed, they could cut Norris before March 15 and only pay him 30 days termination pay — about $688K, by my math.
Some highlights from a lengthy look at all 30 teams around the league…
- Pedro Alvarez still has fans in the Orioles’ front office, per Heyman, but there’s been “no evidence” of renewed contact between the two sides. The Twins talked to Alvarez’s camp at one point but haven’t been in touch recently, and while Rangers manager Jeff Banister is fond of Alvarez dating back to the pair’s days in Pittsburgh, there’s nothing to suggest the two sides could strike a deal.
- The Cubs met with Scott Boras recently and discussed Jake Arrieta, but there was “no traction” in talks between the two sides. Heyman paints a similar picture to the one that has surrounded extension rumors with Arrieta for the past several months; the Cubs would be amenable to a three- or four-year deal, but Arrieta and Boras are targeting something more along the lines of Max Scherzer’s seven-year, $210MM contract. Heyman also notes that the Cubs made a play for right-hander Brad Ziegler this winter before he inked a two-year deal with the Marlins.
- Extension talks between the Rockies and Carlos Gonzalez are “on hold” for the time being. The team tried to explore talks with Gonzalez (another Boras client) recently, but with free agency just a few months away, hammering out a new deal has long seemed unlikely (and, I’d argue, unnecessary from the Rockies’ vantage point, given the plethora of outfield options in Denver).
- After spending a combined $99MM on Matt Holliday and Aroldis Chapman at the Winter Meetings in early December, Yankees GM Brian Cashman was told he only had $4MM to work with over the remainder of the winter, Heyman reports. That level of cash prevented the Yanks from luring targets like Travis Wood and Jerry Blevins to the Bronx but did prove to be enough to buy Chris Carter (and perhaps Jon Niese, who inked a minor league deal). Cashman also tells Heyman that he did receive trade offers for Brett Gardner, but the offers simply weren’t enticing.
- Rays closer Alex Colome was oft-rumored to have drawn trade interest last summer and earlier this offseason, though Heyman writes that the Nationals wouldn’t part with top outfield prospect Victor Robles in order to acquire him. Colome was outstanding in his first season in the ninth inning last year, logging 56 2/3 innings with a 1.91 ERA, 11.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 47.1 percent ground-ball rate. The 28-year-old hasn’t even reached arbitration yet and is controllable through the 2020 season, so if he does eventually emerge as a potential trade chip, the asking price from the Tampa Bay front office would likely be deemed exorbitant by many clubs.
