Mike Piellucci of VICE Sports spoke to Cubs GM Jed Hoyer and former Padres GM Josh Byrnes (now a senior VP with the Dodgers) about the 2011 trade that sent Anthony Rizzo and minor league pitcher Zach Cates from San Diego in exchange for right-hander Andrew Cashner and minor league outfielder Kyung-Min Na. Hoyer explains to Piellucci that his immediate thought upon hearing that the Padres had acquired Yonder Alonso (then one of the game’s top overall prospects) from the Reds was that Rizzo could be available. Hoyer expected significant competition, but Byrnes tells Piellucci that there wasn’t an aggressive market for Rizzo following his 2011 debut, during which he batted just .141/.281/.242. Per Byrnes, the Padres felt that Rizzo’s best assets could be dampened by the pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Cashner was an appealing young arm himself at the time and pitched quite well in 2013-14 for San Diego (2.87 ERA in 298 1/3 innings), but his injuries and inconsistencies went on to make the swap one of the most lopsided-looking trades in recent history, even if one can see the reasoning behind it. As Piellucci notes, the potential for one team to come away looking especially bad is why prospect-for-prospect “challenge” trades of this nature happen so rarely. I’d highly recommend reading the column in its entirety, even for non-Cubs and non-Padres fans.
Cubs Rumors
Extension Candidate: Jake Arrieta
The Cubs reportedly plan to discuss a new, long-term contract with star righty Jake Arrieta early in 2017. Prior talks failed to produce much apparent traction, but there’s new urgency if a deal is to be found. Arrieta, after all, will reach the open market after the season.
If nothing else, Chicago will need to sort out Arrieta’s final arbitration salary with agent Scott Boras. After a huge raise following his monster 2015 season, Arrieta took down $10.7MM last year. And though he wasn’t as good in 2016, there’s another hefty boost coming; MLBTR projects to earn a $16.8MM payday.
So, aside from nailing down that number, just what might the sides talk about when they sit down in the coming weeks? Expectations, perhaps, represent the most important ingredients in this particular extension scenario, because valuing Arrieta’s post-2017 seasons without the knowledge of his 2017 output is particularly difficult.
Arrieta’s story is well known, and need not be repeated in full here. Suffice to say, his career renaissance in Chicago has been spectacular and complete. Over 2014-15, the righty provided 358 2/3 innings of 2.08 ERA pitching over 58 starts. He was dominant, especially, in the latter of those two seasons, when he posted 9.3 K/9 against just 1.9 BB/9 and allowed a league-low 5.9 hits per nine while spinning four complete games. After filling up 229 innings and taking home the National League Cy Young award, a course was set for a huge free-agent contract.
The early portion of 2016 largely represented a continuation; though his walk rate was up, the results remained dominant. By early June, though, the earned runs began to catch up as Arrieta’s typically excellent suppression of walks and home runs began faltering. Ultimately, he fell just shy of 200 innings and ended the year with a 3.10 ERA to go with 8.7 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. Beyond the jump in walk rate, Arrieta also paced the league with 16 wild pitches.
To be sure, all the signs weren’t concerning. Arrieta continued to induce grounders on about half of the balls put in play against him, didn’t show any worrying changes in velocity, mostly maintained his swinging-strike rate (10.5%, down from a personal best 11.1%), and continued to suppress BABIP in a consistent manner suggestive of skill, not merely good fortune. But hitters chased out of the zone slightly less frequently and made somewhat more hard contact in 2016, while also managing a few more home runs (16).
In the aggregate, Arrieta is still exceedingly difficult to square up and seems to be about as good a bet as anyone to deliver 200 or more innings from a health perspective. Even the less-dominant version is still a high-quality pitcher. Heck, he even managed to add real value with the bat last year (.262/.304/.415). And Arrieta showed up in the postseason — the World Series, especially, where he allowed just three earned runs on five hits over 11 1/3 innings in two starts.
Still, it’s hard to say that Arrieta’s current standing matches his status at this time last year. If Arrieta isn’t a true ace — which, at least, is in doubt — then the conversation is somewhat different. Valuing his future is more about projections and comps than it is a question of just how much a team can really spend on a single pitcher. And reaching agreement on an extension poses questions such as: Will the team will ascribe added value to the possibility of a return to full dominance? Will the player forego perhaps greater potential earnings to sell away the risk of another less-than-excellent (or worse) season?
If Arrieta isn’t a true ace, then pedestrian considerations such as age — he turns 31 in March of 2017, and will turn 32 before the start of the 2018 season — rise in importance. That means Arrieta will hit the market at nearly the same age (just a few months younger) as Zack Greinke did last winter. Greinke’s massive contract (six years, $206.5MM) isn’t exactly a bad sign for Arrieta, but it’s tough to see Chicago valuing the latter’s free-agent years as highly as the D-Backs did the former’s (over $34MM). That contract always seemed a reach, and came on the heels of Greinke’s historic 2015 season.
Perhaps a more reasonable current comp is pitching alongside Arrieta in the Cubs’ rotation. Jon Lester, who was a younger free agent than will be Arrieta, got $155MM over six years. But even that could be rich. Johnny Cueto, one of the game’s most accomplished hurlers, landed shy of Lester (six years, $130MM, albeit with an opt-out) heading into his age-30 season. His late-2015 scuffles — which weren’t, perhaps, all that dissimilar from Arrieta’s — seemed to put a real dent in his value.
The most direct comparables, of course, are drawn to players who sign extensions just before hitting the market. Stephen Strasburg got seven years and $175MM from the Nationals in the middle of the 2016 season. Before him, Homer Bailey took home $105MM over six seasons (including his arb year) from the Reds. Neither pitcher is a clean comp — Strasburg, due to age; Bailey, due to performance — but those deals are still illustrative. Strasburg’s signing, in particular, shows that an extension can’t be ruled out, even for a market-leading starter repped by Boras. Both contracts show the need for compromise as well as the inherent risk in a late-arb pitching extension. Injuries slowed both Strasburg and Bailey not long after their new deals were inked. In both of those cases, they wisely (in hindsight) sold away the chance at perhaps even greater earnings to lock in contracts with their existing organizations.
It is ultimately difficult to know whether there’s a realistic chance of the Cubs and Arrieta reaching a deal. The relative lack of upper-level, high-quality starting pitching prospects in the Chicago system suggests an ongoing need. And the Lester signing shows that the team will sign a long-term deal with a starter in the right circumstances. But it seems likely there’ll be some cap to the team’s willingness to add guaranteed years and boost the AAV in Arrieta’s case. Just where those lines will be drawn by both the team and its once (and future?) staff ace remain to be seen. Is Strasburg’s $25MM AAV a fair market point, perhaps over a shorter term? Does Cueto’s combination of a lower AAV and opt-out provide a guide? Or will Arrieta hold out for a chance to chase Greinke?
Just for kicks … let’s see how likely a deal is, in the estimation of MLBTR’s readers:
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Cubs Sign Fernando Rodriguez, Four Others
The Cubs have signed righty reliever Fernando Rodriguez, presumably to a minor league deal, Matt Eddy of Baseball America reports. Rodriguez’s agency, J.M.G. Baseball, tweeted last week that their client had agreed to terms with an NL club. The Cubs have also added second baseman Jemile Weeks, catcher Ali Solis, lefty Daniel Moskos and shortstop Elliot Soto, also presumably on minor league deals.
The 32-year-old Rodriguez has pitched for the A’s for the last three seasons, most recently posting a 4.20 ERA, 8.2 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 40 2/3 innings in 2016. The Athletics outrighted him in October, likely thinking ahead to the tender deadline — Rodriguez has five-plus years of service time and would have been eligible for arbitration. Rodriguez had shoulder surgery in September, although typical recovery time would have allowed him to resume throwing by around now.
The 29-year-old Weeks collected 57 plate appearances with the Padres in 2016 and hit sparingly, missing much of the season to a hamstring strain. The former first-round pick is a career .271/.372/.373 hitter at the Triple-A level.
Solis is a 29-year-old, glove-first journeyman who’s made brief big-league appearances with the Padres and Rays. He played last season in the Red Sox system.
Moskos, now 30, is best known for being the fourth overall pick in the 2007 draft. He pitched last season for the Padres’ Triple-A affiliate in El Paso, posting a 3.39 ERA, 6.9 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 over 61 innings of relief.
The 27-year-old Soto came up in the Cubs system but spent last season with the Marlins’ Triple-A club in New Orleans, batting .241/.358/.297 and splitting his time between second, shortstop and third.
Rangers Claim Brady Dragmire, Lose David Rollins On Waivers To Cubs
The Rangers announced on Friday that they’ve claimed right-hander Brady Dragmire off waivers from the Pirates and added that left-hander David Rollins has been claimed by the Cubs. (FOX’s Ken Rosenthal first tweeted that Rollins was on his way to the Cubs via waivers.)
Both pitchers have bounced around the waiver circuit a staggering amount this offseason. Rollins has now been claimed off waivers a stunning five times since Nov. 18, going from the Mariners, to the Cubs, to the Rangers, to the Phillies, back to the Rangers and now back to the Cubs. While Rollins has to be glad to continually be deemed worthy of a 40-man roster spot, the offseason has unquestionably been a tumultuous one for the former Rule 5 pick.
The 27-year-old Rollins is a former 24th-round pick that has a 7.60 ERA in 34 innings with the Mariners across the past two seasons and has averaged 7.1 K/9 against 3.9 BB/9 with a 41.9 percent ground-ball rate. He’s been rather unlucky, as evidenced by a .379 BABIP, but even the most optimistic ERA estimator pegs him in the mid-4.00s (4.41 SIERA). Rollins does have minor league options remaining, so he could be sent down in Spring Training if he doesn’t break camp with the team. However, multiple clubs seem intent on trying to slip Rollins through waivers this winter, though none have been unable to do so successfully.
As for Dragmire, he’s gone from the Blue Jays, to the Rangers, to the Pirates and now back to the Rangers. The 23-year-old logged a 4.38 ERA with 5.1 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 in 72 innings at Double-A New Hampshire (Toronto’s affiliate) this season. While those numbers don’t exactly stand out, Dragmire boasts exceptional ground-ball tendencies and turned in a stellar 63.6 percent rate in that regard this year. That factor, as well as his relative youth, undoubtedly contributes to the appeal he’s generated around the league this winter.
Cubs Sign Elliott Soto To Minors Deal
- Outfielder Juan Perez, third baseman Zack Cox and right-handed reliever Waldis Joaquin have joined the Tigers on minor league deals. Perez’s only major league experience came as a member of the Giants, with whom he batted .224/.267/.316 in 246 plate appearances from 2013-15. All of his time in 2016 was spent with the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate in Iowa, where he slashed .276/.310/.444 with nine home runs and 16 steals in 412 trips to the plate. Cox went to the Cardinals in the first round of the 2010 draft (25th overall), but he didn’t get to the majors with either them or his second organization, the Marlins. The 27-year-old hit .290/.348/.452 in 460 PAs with Wichita of the independent American Association last season. Joaquin, who spent the past few seasons pitching in Mexico and his native Dominican Republic, was with the Giants from 2007-11. He notched 21 2/3 big league innings of 5.40 ERA ball during that period, also adding matching strikeout and walk rates of 7.06 per nine.
- The Cubs have reached a minors agreement with middle infielder Elliott Soto, who was previously with the organization from the 2010 draft (15th round) through the 2015 campaign. All of Soto’s action last season came with the Marlins’ Triple-A affiliate, with which he hit .241/.358/.297 in 190 plate appearances. In 2,202 minor league PAs, Soto has batted .249/.329/.299.
Roughly 20 Teams Interested In Tyson Ross
Although free agent right-hander Tyson Ross threw just 5 1/3 innings last season and is on the mend from October thoracic outlet surgery, the vast majority of major league teams are interested in his services. Roughly 20 clubs are in on Ross, tweets FanRag’s Jon Heyman, who specifically names his previous team – the Padres – along with the Cubs, Rangers, Pirates and Indians as suitors.
The Padres non-tendered Ross at the outset of this month, but general manager A.J. Preller then revealed there’s “mutual interest” in a reunion between the two sides. However, Ross is reportedly seeking $9MM or more in guarantees, and the Padres were already unwilling to pay him a similar amount in arbitration (an estimated $9.6MM).
Since the Padres cut Ross, no team has been connected to the 29-year-old more than the Cubs. Chicago – which Heyman indicates has visited with Ross – nearly acquired him via trade in July 2015, when he was amid a three-year run as a front-line starter. From 2013-15, Ross posted a 3.07 ERA, 9.16 K/9, 3.48 BB/9 and 58.2 ground-ball rate over 516 2/3 frames, but San Diego elected against dealing him. That proved to be a mistake in hindsight, as Ross’ shoulder troubles kept him off the field last season after a truncated Opening Day start and ultimately led to the end of his Padres career (temporarily at least).
If healthy, Ross would slot into a Cubs rotation that’s currently set to feature Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jake Arrieta, John Lackey and Mike Montgomery. The reigning World Series champions could use another left-hander in their righty-packed bullpen, and adding Ross would perhaps enable them to shift Montgomery, a southpaw, to a relief role. Ross would have to recover first, of course, and Peter Gammons tweeted earlier this month that he should be OK by April.
The Rangers and Pirates have also been in the Ross chase since the Padres non-tendered him, though it’s difficult to imagine low-payroll Pittsburgh approaching his asking price. The Indians, whom FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal previously named as a possible landing spot for Ross, also aren’t known for spending. The Tribe’s run to the World Series proved lucrative, though, which could help them secure Ross.
Six Teams Set To Pay Luxury Tax
Six major league organizations will pay a luxury tax for exceeding the $189MM salary level, as the Associated Press reports (via Sportsnet.ca). With a new collective bargaining agreement set to go into effect, we’ve never seen more teams subject to the tax.
It’s no surprise which organizations lead the way yet again, but they’ll be joined by a few more others than usual. Here’s the full list:
- Dodgers, $31.8MM tax bill
- Yankees, $27.4MM
- Red Sox, $4.5MM
- Tigers, $4MM
- Giants, $3.4MM
- Cubs, $2.96MM
That’s four years in a row for Los Angeles and a remarkable fourteen straight for the Bronx Bombers, the AP notes. Also of note, this is the first time the Cubs have ever exceeded the luxury tax ceiling.
While the line will move up to $195MM next year, under the new CBA, the penalties will begin to rise — especially for consecutive offenders. Dipping back under the limbo stick may prove tough for the Dodgers, whose future obligations draw down more the following year. But the Yankees could well finally be set to re-set their luxury tax status this time next year.
David Ross Considering Front Office Role With Cubs
David Ross’ playing career has only been officially over for about six weeks, but the veteran catcher is already considering a return to the Cubs, writes CSN Chicago’s Patrick Mooney. The Cubs, who already have former big leaguers Ted Lilly, Kerry Wood and Ryan Dempster on hand as special assistants (plus former Major Leaguers Kevin Youkilis and John Baker in other organizational roles), are interested in adding Ross to their front office in a special assistant/consulting type of role, GM Jed Hoyer told Mooney last week at the Winter Meetings.
“It would seem almost a shame if he wasn’t (around),” Hoyer said. “He was such a big part of what we did from a team-chemistry standpoint. Probably no one has a better feel for what we’ll need – what tweaks we’ll need in the clubhouse or what’s going on – than he will. So I think having him around in the next few years (would be) really valuable.”
Ross, who ascended to cult hero status among Cubs fans toward the end of his run as a player, tells Mooney that he hopes to remain connected to the Cubs forever and is interested in experiencing a new side of the game. “There’s a lot of Hall of Famers in that front office,” said the veteran backstop. “And I want to get to know that side of things. So, yeah, I’m sure there’s something that’s going to work out in the future with the Cubs.” For the time being, however, Ross noted that he also has to consider his retirement as an opportunity to spend more time with his young family — something that isn’t an easy feat when playing a 162-game schedule over a 183-day regular season (plus a six-week Spring Training and the postseason).
Set to turn 40 in March, Ross hit .229/.338/.446 with 10 homers in the final season of his 15-year Major League career and took home his second World Series ring. He hit a sixth-inning solo homer off Cleveland relief ace Andrew Miller in Game 7 of the World Series that looked to merely pad Chicago’s lead at the time but proved to provide a critical run as the Indians later staged a rally to tie the game against Aroldis Chapman. He retired with a career .229/.316/.423 batting line over the life of 883 games that were split across seven Major League teams.
Cubs Sign Koji Uehara
After announcing the acquisition of Wade Davis from the Royals last week, the Cubs have struck again to further bolster their bullpen, announcing on Tuesday the signing of right-hander Koji Uehara to a one-year deal. Uehara, a client of ISE Baseball, will reportedly be guaranteed a total of $6MM with his new team. The Cubs had open space on their 40-man roster, which now stands at 37 players, so no corresponding 40-man move is necessary to finalize the latest addition.
Uehara will join the Cubs after a strong four-year run at the back of Boston’s bullpen. At last check, the Red Sox looked likely to move on from Uehara — Alex Speier of WEEI.com tweeted last week that the Red Sox had made an offer, but Uehara wasn’t ready to respond, so the team acquired Tyler Thornburg instead — and Uehara now indeed lands with his fourth big league organization. The Cubs have been known to be looking for bullpen help even after their trade for Davis, and Uehara will deepen their relief corps and bring a highly experienced arm to manager Joe Maddon’s staff.
With Davis in tow, Uehara almost certainly won’t close for the Cubs, as he did for Boston in 2012-2014. But his presence provides some added peace of mind for the defending World Series champs, particularly since Davis dealt with forearm issues in 2016. Chicago now features a rather robust assortment of experienced, high-leverage righties in the pen. Both Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop — who spent much of 2016 as the team’s closer and top set-up option, respectively — remain on hand.
[Related: Updated Chicago Cubs Depth Chart]
As for Uehara, there’s a reason a pitcher of his repute was available on a modest contract. Most importantly, he’ll turn 42 near the start of the season. His fastball velocity also continued to dip in 2016, falling to an average of 86.7 MPH, generally dangerous territory for a righty. He also became incredibly fly-ball-prone, with a minuscule 21.4 GB%, and coughed up 1.53 homers per nine innings. Also, Uehara missed time in 2016 due to a pectoral injury, interrupting what had been a strong run of durability.
Still, Uehara remained very effective last season, posting a 3.45 ERA, 12.1 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 over 47 innings. If the contract does turn out to be for $4.5MM, the Cubs’ risk is minimal, particularly for a pitcher who hasn’t yet had a bad season in eight years since arriving from Japan. For his U.S. career, Uehara has a terrific 2.53 ERA, 10.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 over 437 2/3 innings.
Notably, too, Uehara has long dominated opposing hitters on both sides of the plate. While lefty hitters have been ever so slightly better in terms of strikeouts and walks when facing Uehara, they have produced less offensive than have righties. Since the ace reliever landed in the majors, 863 southpaw swingers have combined to hit an anemic .181/.220/.335 against him.
Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald first tweeted the connection between Uehara and the Red Sox. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports tweeted that a deal was done. ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers reported the salary details (via Twitter).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Cubs Interested In Tyson Ross
- Morosi also tweets that the Astros have had some talks with the Tigers regarding left-handed reliever Justin Wilson. Houston joins the Cubs as the most recent team to be linked to Wilson, who pitched to a 4.14 ERA in his first season with Detroit but also recorded career-bests in K/9, BB/9 and ground-ball rate. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz pegs him for a reasonable $2.7MM next year, and Wilson will be controllable through the 2018 season via the arbitration process.
- Speaking of the Cubs, they’re maintaining some interest in right-hander Tyson Ross, reports Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago/670 The Score. Ross was non-tendered by the Padres after undergoing surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome in October, and while he could well be ready to pitch early in the 2017 campaign, the Padres clearly weren’t comfortable with a projected salary between $9-10MM. Levine spoke to one NL exec who expected Ross to receive an incentive-laden contract that allows Ross to earn nearly as much as he otherwise would have through arbitration with the Padres. The Cubs, according to Levine, have had interest in Ross since the summer of 2015, when they tried to broker a deal that would’ve sent Starlin Castro to the Padres in return. According to Levine, the Rangers are also interested in swinging a deal with Ross now that he’s a free agent, though it’s easy to imagine a wide number of teams showing interest in a short-term commitment to a player with Ross’ upside. The 29-year-old turned in a 3.07 ERA with 9.2 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 and a strong ground-ball rate in 516 2/3 innings with the Padres from 2013-15.
