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Poll: Grading The Yu Darvish Deal

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Unfortunately for those who follow baseball, the most popular topic in the sport this offseason has been the historically slow free-agent market. Upward of 100 players remain without contracts as spring training nears, but the good news is that the top available veteran finally came off the board Saturday.

The six-year, $126MM agreement the Cubs reached with right-hander Yu Darvish will hopefully lead to a flurry of signings in the near future. Regardless of how the majors’ other 29 teams react, it likely concludes the offseason heavy lifting for Cubs president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer, who have added Darvish, two other starters (Tyler Chatwood and the injured Drew Smyly) and a pair of established relievers (Brandon Morrow and Steve Cishek) to a club that ruled the National League Central in each of the previous two years.

Even without Darvish, the Cubs probably would have entered 2018 as the popular pick to win the division, though arguments could have been made for either the rival Brewers or Cardinals to seriously challenge for the crown. Both Milwaukee and St. Louis have been active this offseason after nearly making the playoffs last year. As things stand, though, they’re clearly looking up at a Cubs team with a set rotation (Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, Jon Lester and Chatwood) and an enviable group of position players. There was speculation earlier in the offseason that Chicago would deal from its lineup and/or farm system to boost the front of its rotation, but bringing in Darvish officially took that possibility out of play.

Along with retaining their position players and prospects, there are other other obvious benefits to picking up Darvish, including that he’s a tremendous starter who should boost the Cubs’ World Series chances in the coming years. The towering flamethrower, who emigrated from Japan in 2012, generally thrived with the Rangers and Dodgers, and there’s little reason to expect he’ll fail in Chicago in the near term. Speaking of the Dodgers, they rank as arguably the prominent concern in the NL for the Cubs (with Darvish’s help, they upended Chicago in the NLCS last season), so pilfering the 31-year-old from LA makes the signing all the more satisfying for Chicago. Plus, because Darvish was part of a midseason trade and wasn’t eligible for an offseason qualifying offer, reeling him in won’t cost the Cubs anything in draft-pick compensation or international bonus pool money.

With Darvish now in the mix, the Cubs will say goodbye to free agent Jake Arrieta, who did receive a QO after the season. When he heads elsewhere, Chicago will nab a pick after the second round of this year’s draft in return. Of course, even though Darvish is more hyped than Arrieta and will likely end up with the bigger guarantee of the two this winter, some may prefer the latter. The soon-to-be 32-year-old Arrieta wasn’t great last season, when he alarmingly lost some velocity, but he has been the more successful of the two in recent years. During his run as a Cub from 2014-17, Arrieta ranked third among starters in ERA (2.67), fifth in fWAR (18.5) and collected a Cy Young Award (2015).

Even if you’d rather have Darvish than Arrieta, the contract comes with some risk for the Cubs (which you’d expect with all big-money accords). Specifically, it’s in the form of an opt-out clause after the 2019 season. If Darvish pitches well enough over the next two years to vacate the deal in favor of another trip to the market, his departure would create a sizable hole for a Chicago team that hasn’t had great success at developing starters during the Epstein era, as Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic recently detailed (subscription required).

On the other hand, should he go downhill during the next two years and stick with his current contract, it could leave the Cubs with another expensive, declining veteran to join Lester (guaranteed $25MM after 2019, including a $10MM buyout for 2021) and outfielder Jason Heyward (guaranteed $86MM from 2020-23). The Cubs took the opt-out risk on Heyward when they signed him to an $184MM contract prior to 2016, when he was one of the sport’s foremost all-around players. Since then, his offensive game has gone in the tank, making it unlikely he’ll leave when he’s allowed to after next season or potentially at the end of the 2019 campaign.

To the Cubs’ credit, the $126MM guarantee looks quite reasonable for Darvish, and at $21MM per year, it’s palatable from a luxury tax standpoint. During a normal winter, Darvish may have ended up with a much wealthier contract. In fact, at the start of what has since turned into a bizarre offseason, MLBTR predicted a six-year, $160MM payday for Darvish, while former FanGraphs writer Dave Cameron forecast an even richer figure ($168MM) over the same term. All things considered, then, it seems the Cubs made out rather well with this move – one they hope will help guide them back to World Series glory in 2018. What are your thoughts?

(Poll link for App users)

Reactions To And Effects Of The Yu Darvish Deal

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It took over three months, but the premier free agent in this year’s class finally came off the board Saturday. Right-hander Yu Darvish agreed to join the Cubs on a six-year, $126MM guarantee that includes an opt-out clause after 2019. As you’d expect, a bevy of media reactions to the agreement have come in over the course of the day. Here’s a look at several…

  • When the offseason began in November, Darvish “wasn’t really” on Chicago’s radar, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports on Twitter. However, it seems the Cubs benefited from this winter’s slow-moving free-agent market in this case, as it helped lead to a lower-than-expected price tag for Darvish and a major splash for the North Siders. Darvish went into the winter seeking an accord along the lines of Stephen Strasburg’s (seven years, $175MM) or new teammate Jon Lester’s (six years, $155MM), Patrick Mooney of The Athletic details (subscription required).
  • While there’s a well-known fondness between Darvish and the Rangers, with whom he has spent the majority of his career, Texas was “not even close” to landing him, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram hears. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News adds that Texas didn’t make an offer to Darvish, and the club wouldn’t even have been willing to guarantee him $75MM in total if it did. The Rangers have a glaring need for a front-end starter, but they’re not close enough to contention to splurge on one, Grant writes. Rangers general manager Jon Daniels, who has a good relationship with Darvish, spoke highly of the 31-year-old on Saturday. “I am very happy for Yu and hope he gets everything he wants,” Daniels said (via Wilson). “He will go down as one of the best pitchers in Rangers history. I expect he’s going to be very good wherever he goes.”
  • The Dodgers, Darvish’s other ex-team, made him an offer, but it fell short of the Cubs’, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required) and Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times report. Contrarily, Jon Heyman of FanRag tweets that LA was “said to have offered in the same ballpark” as Chicago. Although, signing Darvish would have made it difficult for the Dodgers to achieve their goal of staying under the $197MM luxury tax threshold in 2018.
  • Likewise, tax concerns stood in the way of a Yankees-Darvish union. New York never even made Darvish an offer, Rosenthal tweets.
  • The small-market Twins aggressively went after Darvish this winter, even meeting with him in Texas at some point, per Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press. Their offer to Darvish was for at least five years and $100MM, according to Heyman (Twitter link). The Twins’ courtship of Darvish went for naught, though, perhaps thanks to their dislike for opt-out clauses and a wariness toward giving him a sixth year, writes Berardino, who adds that they could now look to top available starter Jake Arrieta. On the trade front, Rays righties Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi remain on Minnesota’s radar, relays Berardino, though he suggests the Twins would have to give up too much for the former. Meanwhile, Rosenthal reports that there’s a belief among rival executives the Twins could still add a starter via both free agency and the trade market. Along with Odorizzi, he lists free agent Alex Cobb and Astros righty Collin McHugh as hurlers who have drawn Minnesota’s interest.
  • The upstart Brewers were part of the Darvish derby, too, and the belief is that they also submitted a proposal of at least five years and $100MM, Heyman tweets. However, Rosenthal hears that Milwaukee’s offer “was not as competitive as reports indicated.” Further, Rosenthal suggests that the Brewers may have primarily been in the running just to drive up the price for the NL Central rival Cubs. Regardless, with Darvish now out of the mix, Odorizzi and the Athletics’ Jharel Cotton are trade possibilities for the Brew Crew, according to Rosenthal.
  • In addition to the previously listed Twins and Brewers, the Dodgers and the Phillies are still targeting starters in the wake of the Darvish deal, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. Philadelphia is aggressively pursuing a short-term addition, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Andrew Cashner, Chris Tillman, Jaime Garcia and Jason Vargas are all possibilities, Feinsand adds.
  • Keith Law of ESPN (subscription required) has mixed feelings on the Darvish pact. While it “appears to be a bargain salary,” Law has reservations about the length, contending that it’s one or two years too long, and he doesn’t regard Darvish “a pure ace.” Darvish has become too reliant on his cutter and not reliant enough on his slider, which has led to vulnerability against left-handed hitters, Law observes. However, Darvish may have “some untapped potential right now” if he leans more on his slider, per Law, who at least sees him as a significant near-term upgrade for the Cubs.

Cubs Defeat Justin Grimm In Arbitration

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The Cubs have won their arbitration hearing against righty Justin Grimm, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (Twitter link). Grimm will play for $2.2MM in the coming season after filing for a $2.475MM salary.

Grimm, who earned $1.825MM in 2017, struggled to a 5.53 ERA with 9.6 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 1.93 HR/9 and a 43.1 percent ground-ball rate in 55 1/3 innings for the Cubs last year. The 2017-18 offseason marks his third winter of arbitration eligibility, though due to his status as a Super Two player, he’ll be eligible once more next offseason before reaching free agency upon the completion of the 2019 campaign.

Grimm represented the last unresolved arbitration case for the Cubs, who had previously cut deals to avoid a hearing with Kris Bryant, Tommy La Stella, Kyle Hendricks, Addison Russell and Justin Wilson.

Latest On Market For Lance Lynn

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Free agent hurler Lance Lynn has received interest from “seven or eight teams,” according to a report from Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. His former team, the Cardinals, is not one of them.

Lynn, of course, declined a qualifying offer from St. Louis at the start the offseason. It seems the club is now content to allow him to leave, knowing that it’ll receive a draft choice after the Competitive Balance Round B selections so long as Lynn signs before this year’s draft.

Clearly, Lynn is worthy of punting some draft compensation. But while the CBA’s new qualifying offer rules have generally put that matter on the back burner, parting with draft value is still a factor in any free agent case. (MLBTR has run down what draft picks each team would need to sacrifice to sign a qualified free agent such as Lynn.)

As we’ve noted of late, Lynn has had a quiet offseason but remains an easy-to-visualize fit with quite a few organizations. Among the teams showing some level of interest, per Goold, are the Brewers and Cubs — two teams that are plenty familiar with Lynn from his lengthy stint with the Cardinals. The article also rounds up reported interest from other quarters, mentioning the Orioles, Twins, Nationals, and Mets as plausible suitors. Indeed, a run through MLBTR’s log of posts involving Lynn shows no shortage of possibilities.

Lynn himself discussed the situation with Goold, though he declined to get into specifics on teams. You’ll want to read the entire piece, as it’s loaded with interesting information and discussion, but generally Lynn suggests he feels comfortable preparing as normal despite his lack of a contract. “I haven’t missed anything,” he said. “There’s nothing really to worry about — at this moment.”

Goold also examines Lynn’s value against prior open-market players, suggesting the Tigers’ signing of Jordan Zimmermann — five years and $110MM, with strong no-trade protection — as a comp. While there’s certainly an argument to be made for that kind of analogy given Lynn’s bottom-line results, the view of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes — as explained first in the MLBTR Top 50 Free Agents list and expanded upon in his free agent profile of Lynn — is that the veteran righty isn’t quite in that stratosphere, due in large part to concerns with the peripherals. MLBTR has pegged Lynn for a four-year deal in the $14MM or $15MM annual range, citing a variety of teams as plausible fits on paper.

In large part, the overall market picture remains much the same as it was when Dierkes set out to evaluate things before the action got underway. Just how Lynn’s situation will shake out, though, is even more difficult to predict now than it was then. The overall tenor of Lynn’s comments, and Goold’s reporting, suggests that this free agent case is not particularly close to resolution.

Cubs Have Had Little Contact With Jake Arrieta

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  • As for Jake Arrieta, we have not heard a ton of public chatter. There isn’t much new, it seems, but Nightengale does suggest that one hypothetical possibility isn’t likely: the incumbent Cubs have “barely even engaged in contract talks” with their former staff ace, per the report. That is not very surprising, of course. The sides already know one another (and their respective bargaining positions) quite well. And it’s clear that, while a reunion has always remained hypothetically possible, both team and player intended to explore alternatives during the winter. Still, it’s notable that they have evidently not circled back around to one another to this point.

NL Central Notes: Grimm, Brewers, Reds

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The Cubs and Justin Grimm will have an arbitration hearing this week, reports ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers (Twitter link). The right-hander filed for a $2.475MM salary for the 2018 campaign, while the Cubs filed at $2.2MM (as seen in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker). The two sides haven’t been able to make any progress in their talks, per Rogers, so they’ll head to what will be the Cubs’ first arbitration hearing in the Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer era. Grimm, who earned $1.825MM in 2017, struggled to a 5.53 ERA with 9.6 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 1.93 HR/9 and a 43.1 percent ground-ball rate in 55 1/3 innings for the Cubs last year. The 2017-18 offseason marks his second winter of arbitration eligibility as he heads into his age-29 season.

Elsewhere in the division…

  • The Brewers have the capacity to add to their payroll even after acquiring Christian Yelich and signing Lorenzo Cain, Jhoulys Chacin, Boone Logan and Matt Albers this offseason, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. “Mark wants to do what’s in the best interests of the organization,” GM David Stearns tells Haudricourt. “He has made that very clear throughout my time here and even before I got here. He’s going to be supportive of the baseball process. He’s going to be supportive of investing when it’s warranted.” That said, Haudricourt notes that a top-of-the-market offer for a free agent like Yu Darvish still doesn’t seem likely, per Haudricourt, and the Brewers do want to leave some room for in-season moves, should the need arise.
  • Anthony DeSclafani, Homer Bailey, Brandon Finnegan and Luis Castillo will head into Reds camp as the top four rotation options, writes MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon, but the competition for the fifth spot is “wide open.” Tyler Mahle, Sal Romano, Robert Stephenson, Amir Garrett, Cody Reed, Jackson Stephens and 2017 setup man Michael Lorenzen will all vie for that job. (Presumably, a return to the bullpen would be in order for Lorenzen should he not win the final spot, whereas the others would likely head to Triple-A Louisville.) “We want to make sure we have depth in our starting rotation, and we’ve got a lot of good, young guys with options that we still believe in as starters,” said GM Dick Williams. “…I would also leave the door open that out of [the fifth starter’s mix], there is a possibility, like last year, that you could see someone appear in the Major League bullpen just to get exposure and to help the team.”

Cubs Seeking Pitching Depth

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  • The Cubs are “still looking to add depth” to their pitching staff, general manager Jed Hoyer tells Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com. “That’s an annual thing you think about. You prepare for injuries even if some years you go unscathed,” he continued. Starting depth does appear to be an issue at the moment for the Cubs, who lack battle-tested options beyond their current projected rotation of Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, Jon Lester, Tyler Chatwood and Mike Montgomery. Of the other healthy starting possibilities on their 40-man roster, only Eddie Butler brings significant experience in the majors, though he hasn’t been particularly successful. Of course, the Cubs would help their cause quite a bit by signing Yu Darvish (who remains on their radar) or bringing in another high-profile starter via free agency or trade.

Latest Reactions to Slow-Moving Offseason

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The offseason continues to move painfully slowly. With spring training on the horizon, there’s not much time left for the staring contest between teams and players to break. Indeed, the past week has yielded more news by way of shouting from players, agents and union reps than by way of actual major league signings. We’ve collected some of the reactions from around the baseball community…

  • As one might expect, the colorfully hyperbolic Scott Boras has offered his input on the subject (via Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports), comparing the market phenomenon to the act of murder. “The difference between an accident and murder is intent,” Boras says. “Teams are intentionally murdering seasons and fans are dying with it.” Boras also says that the biggest issue is competition, adding that losing is only acceptable if there is an actual effort to win.
  • “The list of available free agents could fill out a 25-man roster and contend for a playoff spot,” writes Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star. Dodd also includes quotes from Peter Moylan, which provide some interesting insight into the point of view of a lower-tier MLB free agent. Moylan describes his situation in terms of the uncertainty, telling Dodd that the only thing that is a “little frustrating” is the unknown. Moylan’s examples of the unknown include not knowing where he’ll be in two weeks, not knowing where he’ll be playing during the regular season, and the resulting inability to line up housing for either. The 39-year-old righty pitched to a 3.49 ERA across 59 1/3 innings last year for the Royals, and has publicly stated his desire to remain with the team.
  • The MLBPA is “laying the dynamite around itself” with its threats of spring training boycotts and accusations of collusion, writes Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. Davidoff describes Brodie Van Wagenen’s recent statement as a “boiling point of sorts,” and wonders what can possibly be accomplished by all this “saber-rattling.” Davidoff seems to downplay the anger and threats from the union and player representatives, pointing out (by way of recent words from Brandon Moss) that they chose to sign a collective bargaining agreement that rewards tanking and penalizes clubs for spending too much.
  • Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated opines that the players “bargained for luxury, not labor” in his take on the subject. Verducci also highlights Moss’ words, describing the current CBA as “the deal that stiffened the soft cap created by a luxury tax threshold that hasn’t come close to keeping up with growth in revenues and payrolls.” He adds that the union celebrated something of a “Pyrrhic win” in its prevention of an international draft, which Verducci calls a bluff.
  • The mystery of the bizarre offseason before us can’t be solved by simply crying “collusion,” Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca writes, drawing attention to multiple factors in this offseason’s pace in a piece that’s definitely worth a full read. Some of those factors include a logjam at the top of the market (perhaps caused by CBA incentives for teams to tighten their purse strings), and the perceived value of youth in baseball.
  • For his part, Cubs GM Jed Hoyer is surprised that he’s headed to Arizona with so much offseason left to go. In an interview with Jesse Rogers of ESPN, Hoyer chalks the hot stove freeze up to something that seems quite simple on the surface: both players and teams feel justified in their positions. “Every team has their internal rankings,” he tells Rogers. “Every team has their evaluations which they will never reveal. Those rankings guide them through the market. Both sides of the market can always move or activate and free things up. To this point, we haven’t gotten there.”

Latest On Cubs' Pursuit Of Yu Darvish

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  • Yu Darvish is still on the radar for both the Cubs and Dodgers, though with some caveats.  Chicago “seem to be hoping that Darvish will choose them for reasons that are not economic,” which implies that Darvish would drop his asking price to play for a World Series contender.  In the Dodgers’ case, there is “some ambivalence by at least some” at the ownership level about bringing Darvish back in the wake of his well-publicized struggles during the World Series.

    [SOURCE LINK]

Cubs, Peter Bourjos Agree To Minor League Deal

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12:04pm: Bourjos will earn a $1.45MM base salary if he makes the big league roster with the Cubs, MLBTR has learned (Twitter link).

11:57am: The Cubs have agreed to a minor league contract with outfielder Peter Bourjos, reports Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune (Twitter link). The Dishman Sports Group client will be invited to Major League Spring Training and vie for a reserve job with the reigning NL Central champs.

Bourjos, 30, spent the 2017 season with the Rays and appeared in 100 games, hitting .223/.272/.383 with five homers and five steals in 203 plate appearances. A fleet-footed veteran known for his outfield range, he drew positive marks for his glovework both in center field and in right field last season with Tampa Bay.

Overall, Bourjos hasn’t matched the .271/.327/.438 slash he posted in a promising 2011 season with the Angels, but he’s a career .241/.298/.382 hitter that brings a glowing +37 Defensive Runs Saved and +48.3 Ultimate Zone Rating to the table in 4007 1/3 innings of center field work in the Majors (albeit with much of that positive working coming prior to 2014 hip surgery).

He’ll head to Spring Training and hope to land a backup job in an outfield mix that includes Albert Almora Jr., Jason Heyward and Kyle Schwarber. Both Ben Zobrist and Ian Happ figure to be in the outfield mix for the Cubs as well, giving Bourjos a pair of switch-hitters with whom to compete. Bourjos has more experience in center field than anyone else on the Cubs’ roster, though, and he’d make for a useful right-handed pairing with Schwarber or Heyward should the Cubs see fit. He struggled against lefties earlier in his career but has hit them at a .278/.320/.406 pace over the past couple of seasons.

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