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Mets, Orioles Among Teams To Inquire After Luis Castillo

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Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo has received plenty of interest from various clubs amid a hot market for starting pitching this winter, with the Red Sox and Cubs among the teams who have been connected to the right-hander so far. A report from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal this evening name-checks two more clubs who have “at least inquired” after the veteran: the Mets and the Orioles. With that said, however, Rosenthal emphasizes that Mariners are only willing to deal Castillo if the return package improves the big league club as they look to return to the postseason next year.

Both clubs are certainly sensible suitors for the right-hander. The Mets have already added Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas to a rotation that entered the offseason with only Kodai Senga and David Peterson locked into starting roles for 2025, but those additions offer little certainty to the Mets. That makes a steady and reliable arm like Castillo’s a sensible choice for that final rotation spot in Queens, but it’s unclear whether New York has the big-league ready pieces to offer Seattle in order to facilitate a deal. Top prospect Luisangel Acuna would surely be attractive to the Mariners as a big league ready infield option who looked good in a 14-game cup of coffee with the Mets last year, but the soon-to-be 23 year old could be a major factor in the club’s plans for 2025 given his ability to not only play the infield and also a strong center field. That figures to be particularly true if the Mets fail to re-sign Pete Alonso and move Mark Vientos to first base, which would seemingly open up regular playing time for Acuna at either second or third base.

The Orioles, by contrast, have a surplus of talent around the infield that could be attractive to the Mariners as they look for a front-of-the-rotation arm to replace free agent hurler Corbin Burnes. In particular, the club has a bit of a logjam at first base that the Mariners could stand to benefit from. While it’s unclear if Baltimore would be willing to part ways with top prospect Coby Mayo, Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn were forced to share first base duties last year thanks to a crowded positional mix that figures to only become more cramped with the growing playing time needs of youngsters like Mayo, Heston Kjerstad, and Jackson Holliday. With Holliday poised to take over second base on an everyday basis in 2025, it’s also possible that a veteran infielder like Ramon Urias could be available for the Mariners in a deal.

Another obstacle to a potential Castillo deal, Rosenthal writes, is that parting ways with the right-hander could leave the club thin on rotation depth. While their top four of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo would remain among the strongest in the sport, big league ready options like Emerson Hancock and Jhonathan Diaz don’t provide much confidence for the Mariners’ back-end. One solution to that problem, of course, could be a young pitcher heading back to Seattle as part of the return for Castillo. The Cubs (Jordan Wicks and Javier Assad), Red Sox (Richard Fitts and Cooper Criswell), Mets (Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn), and Orioles (Cade Povich and Trevor Rogers) all have players on the rotation bubble who they could at least theoretically make available in trade talks with the Mariners, should improving rotation depth be key to a deal from Seattle’s perspective.

Cubs Interested In Luis Castillo

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The Cubs are one of the teams who have spoken to the Mariners about Luis Castillo’s trade availability, according to Ryan Divish and Adam Jude of the Seattle Times.  The depth of Chicago’s interest isn’t known, or if this interest still exists now that the Cubs have already swung a blockbuster deal to land Kyle Tucker from the Astros.  Castillo also has a no-trade clause in his contract, so he could veto things entirely if he doesn’t have interest in going to Chicago.

Since the Cubs were known to be looking for pitching, however, it would make sense that they would at least check in on what seems to be an increasingly available trade candidate. Rumors have been swirling about Castillo’s availability in recent days, as while Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has publicly downplayed the idea of trading from Seattle’s rotation depth, it is thought that Castillo might be the most available of the starting five.  The 32-year-old Castillo is at least five years older than any of George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, or Bryce Miller, and much more expensive — Castillo is owed $68.25MM in guaranteed money from 2025-27, plus a $25MM vesting option for 2028 that becomes guaranteed based on health and an innings threshold.

This salary might be the chief reason the M’s would be open to trading Castillo, as the club is known to be operating within pretty limited payroll parameters.  Divish and Jude note that the Mariners are thought to have around $15MM in spending space, and for a team with several needs to address on offense, their options for signings or other trades widen greatly if Castillo’s contract was off the books.  Freeing up some money might allow the M’s to make a more full-on pursuit of Christian Walker, who the Mariners have had “atop their wish list since the start of the offseason,” Divish and Jude write.

A deal that saw Castillo go to Wrigleyville could also logically bring at least one bat back in Seattle’s direction.  The M’s have already been linked to Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner, so a swap involving the two of them (if not necessarily a one-for-one) would address both teams’ needs.  Hoerner is owed $23.5MM over the next seasons, so that represents some salary offset if Chicago absorbed all of Castillo’s contract.

On the other hand, sending Isaac Paredes to Houston in the Tucker trade package has already cost the Cubs one starting infielder, so Chicago might now be less willing to move Hoerner.  Top prospect Matt Shaw is viewed as the likeliest candidate to step in at third base in Paredes’ place, and while James Triantos is another highly-touted youngster who might be ready for the big leagues at second base, entrusting two infield jobs to rookies is a risk for the Cubs.

Getting Castillo for Cody Bellinger or Seiya Suzuki would be a cleaner fit for Chicago in dealing from its outfield depth, but the Mariners already have Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, and Victor Robles slated for starting jobs.  The M’s have Luke Raley set for at least part-time duty at first base and Mitch Haniger penciled in at DH, as well.  This all being said, the Mariners have such a broad need for hitting that it certainly isn’t beyond Dipoto to target a big outfield bat and then get creative in either fitting that bat into the lineup, or perhaps trying to deal Raley or Haniger to land the infield help Seattle more clearly needs.

Installing Castillo alongside Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, and the newly-signed Matthew Boyd would suddenly give the Cubs one of the more appealing rotations in baseball.  Plenty more pitching would be on hand as well, since acquiring Castillo would turn fifth-starter candidates Javier Assad, Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, or top prospect Cade Horton into depth arms.  Speculatively speaking, one of these younger depth arms could also be sent to Seattle in a hypothetical Castillo trade, to give the Mariners a ready-made replacement for the new vacancy in their rotation.

Cubs Acquire Kyle Tucker

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The Cubs and Astros announced that they have made a trade that will send outfielder Kyle Tucker to Chicago, with infielder Isaac Paredes, right-hander Hayden Wesneski and prospect Cam Smith heading to Houston.

It’s a move that would have been completely shocking as recently as a few weeks ago. Tucker has been a key part of the Astros dynasty and one of the best players in baseball in recent seasons. But over the past few weeks, reports emerged that the Astros were willing to listen to offers on Tucker as they looked to balance their desire to compete with some financial concerns. It appears that talks ramped up quickly and Houston found an offer they considered too good to pass up.

Tucker, 28 in January, was one of many high profile draft picks that went on to be part of the championship nucleus in Houston. The club aggressively tanked last decade, using high draft picks to select players like George Springer, Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers Jr. and others. After failing to sign Brady Aiken, their top pick in 2014, they received a compensation pick in the 2015 draft. That gave them two of the top five picks in 2015, using the second overall pick to draft Alex Bregman and the fifth overall selection on Tucker.

Both picks were big successes, as Bregman and Tucker each established themselves as All-Star capable big leaguers. This deal now officially ends Tucker’s tenure in Houston and might poetically point to the end of Bregman’s as well. Houston decision makers have long pointed to re-signing Bregman, who is currently a free agent, as a top offseason priority. However, the two sides have reportedly remained far apart in negotiations and the pivot to Paredes might signal that Bregman won’t be coming back to Houston after all.

Tucker, 28 in January, hit 89 home runs over the 2021 to 2023 seasons. He hit exactly 30 in the first two of those campaigns and then 29 in the third. He also stole 69 bases in that time, had above average walk and strikeout rates and strong defense. His combined line in that time was .278/.353/.517, which led to a 138 wRC+, indicating he was 38% better than league average. In 2024, he missed about three months due to a shin fracture but his limited performance was even stronger. He hit 23 home runs in just 78 games and his .289/.408/.585 line led to a 180 wRC+.

Putting all of those traits together, Tucker was worth about five wins above replacement in each of the 2021-2023 seasons, per FanGraphs. In 2024, he racked up 4.2 fWAR even though he missed roughly half the year. His 19.1 fWAR over the 2021-2024 stretch puts him 13th among MLB position players, though he played fewer games than everyone ahead of him, thanks to that injury absence.

Unlike some other clubs, the Astros have shown a willingness to let their star players go get paid elsewhere. They did that with Correa, Springer and Gerrit Cole, who went on to sign with the Twins, Blue Jays and Yankees, respectively. That has aligned with a general reluctance to give out massive deals or pay the competitive balance tax. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Jose Altuve’s 2018 extension worth $157.5MM over six years is the biggest deal in franchise history, both in terms of years and dollars. The Astros went over the CBT line in 2020 but didn’t pay any taxes as the system was put on hold in the shortened season. 2024 was the first time they went over the line and actually had to pay the tax.

Coming into this winter, general manager Dana Brown suggested the club needed needed to “get a little bit creative” with the budget. Owner Jim Crane later pushed back on that stance a bit, but it appears the financial constraints are real. Reporting has indicated that the Astros made an offer to Bregman of $156MM but that he is looking for something closer to $200MM.

Tucker’s earning power next winter is likely to be even higher than Bregman’s is now. Bregman is going into his age-31 season now whereas Tucker will be going into his age-29 campaign next winter.

It’s possible the Astros decided they weren’t likely to get a long-term deal done with either player and explored trade talks with Tucker, with this offer ticking a lot of boxes for them. It clears Tucker’s salary, which MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects for $15.8MM, off the 2025 books. Redirecting those savings to Bregman is still possible but they’ve also found themselves a potential replacement in Paredes.

Over the past three years, Paredes has hit 70 home runs and slashed .234/.338/.437 for a 123 wRC+. He’s also bounced around the infield, though has been at third base more than anywhere else. His defense at the hot corner has been close to average but it’s still made him roughly a 3-4 fWAR player recently. He is projected to make $6.9MM via arbitration next year and can be controlled for two more seasons beyond that.

Going to Houston might be an especially good fit for him, given that most of his home run power comes via pulling the ball towards the field foul pole. As pointed out by Sarah Langs of MLB.com, his home run total of 19 in 2024 would have been 26 if he played all his games in Houston and could take advantage of the Crawford Boxes.

It’s still possible that Houston could re-sign Bregman and move Paredes over to first base, since the club is also looking for help there, but time will tell how viable that is. Houston could find cheaper solutions at first base and leave Paredes at third for the next few seasons.

The acquisition of Smith also provides the Astros with a potential third baseman for the future. He was just drafted by the Cubs with the 14th overall pick a few months ago and slashed .313/.396/.609 in his professional debut, getting into 32 games across three different levels, finishing at Double-A. If the Astros stick with Paredes at third, Smith could push him for the job in the coming years, with Paredes eventually getting moved across the diamond.

The Astros also add a bit of pitching depth in the deal via Wesneski. The 27-year-old has decent underlying rates thus far in his career but problems with the long ball have pushed lots of runs across the plate. In 190 innings thus far in his career, he has a 23% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate and 43% ground ball rate. But 35 home runs, a rate of 16.7% per fly ball, have led to a 3.93 ERA. If the Astros can help him keep the ball in the park, he can be a part of their pitching staff for years to come. He has less than two years of service time and can therefore be retained for another five seasons.

The club has plenty of question marks with its pitching right now. Each of McCullers, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier and J.P. France missed all or part of 2024 due to notable arm surgeries, so each of those guys is a question mark heading into 2025. Framber Valdez is also a trade candidate in the same vein as Tucker, since he’s set to make an eight-figure salary and is one year away from free agency. Hunter Brown had an uneven season this year. Ronel Blanco was huge for Houston but is fairly limited in terms of starting experience. Spencer Arrighetti was decent in his rookie year but it’s hard to bank on him at this point.

In the bullpen, Ryan Pressly is another trade candidate. He’s set to make $14MM next year, the final season of his deal. Wesneski has worked both as a starter and as a reliever in his career, so he can help Houston in either department.

For the Cubs, it’s a lot to give up, and that’s especially true when looking back to their acquisition of Paredes. They just sent Christopher Morel, Hunter Bigge and Ty Johnson to the Rays a few months ago, getting Paredes ahead of the summer deadline. In a sense, they have given up those three players plus Smith and Wesneski in order to get just one season of Tucker.

But there are good reasons why they have paid such a price. The club has been hovering around .500 in recent years, having a squad full of good players but lacking in truly elite ones. They also possess a very strong pipeline of prospects, several of whom are pushing for major league playing time. They have shown a reluctance to pay top dollar for free agents, so a big trade has seemed like the best way for them to upgrade the roster.

Tucker certainly qualifies. As mentioned, he has been one of the best position players in the majors recently and immediately becomes the best player for the Cubbies. Perhaps the Cubs will look to work out an extension with Tucker but that would require a very notable contract, the kind they haven’t given out recently. Even if Tucker is only at Wrigley for one year, the Cubs will at least be able to recoup draft pick compensation by issuing him the qualifying offer after 2025.

In addition to that, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer is in the final year of his contract. With the Cardinals taking their foot of the gas pedal next year and the Reds and Pirates still struggling to come out of rebuilds, there’s a window for the Cubs to take a step forward, push the Brewers for the division and get Hoyer some extra job security.

It’s also possible that they won’t miss any of the pieces they gave up too much, even though they make a lot of sense for Houston. As mentioned, the Cubs have an excellent farm system. On Baseball America’s Top 100, they currently have six players on the list, which doesn’t even include Smith. Though it surely hurts to give up their most recent first round pick, the farm is still in good shape overall.

That farm might also be able to provide an immediate Paredes replacement. One of the club’s top prospects is Matt Shaw, who has played a bit of middle infield but a bit more at third.  He split last season between Double-A and Triple-A, slashing .284/.379/.488 for a 146 wRC+. If the Cubs feel Shaw is ready to make the jump to the majors, that may have made Paredes expendable. Wesneski is also a talented pitcher but he’s been squeezed from the rotation plans in Chicago and largely kept in a swing role.

It’s a huge move for both clubs and will surely lead to more, especially for the Cubs. They already had a crowded outfield mix even before adding Tucker into it. They also have Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger, not to mention prospects Alexander Canario, Kevin Alcántara and Owen Caissie. They have reportedly been trying to work out a deal involving Bellinger or, to a lesser extent, Suzuki. Happ and Suzuki both have no-trade clauses, making them difficult to move. Bellinger has an opt-out after 2025, which also makes him a tricky trade candidate.

One way or another, a move from that group feels inevitable. The Yankees have been connected to both Tucker and Bellinger, so perhaps they will now focus more on the latter now that they didn’t get Tucker.

For the Astros, what’s still unknown is if the door is totally closed to Bregman. It certainly feels like that may be the case, though it’s not impossible to see a path back to Houston. RosterResource estimates their competitive balance tax number at $225MM, which is $16MM shy of next year’s $241MM base threshold. Signing Bregman would certainly push them over, though not by as much now that Tucker’s gone. They could also theoretically lower their number by trading Valdez or Pressly. Then again, they’ve been talking about signing a new deal with Bregman for two years without it happening, so perhaps this is the door finally closing.

It’s also unknown if Houston is content with its Tucker-less outfield. Yordan Alvarez is a strong hitter but often relegated to DH duties due to ongoing knee issues. Jake Meyers, Chas McCormick and Taylor Trammell are other options on the roster, along with utility types like Mauricio Dubón and Shay Whitcomb. The group obviously looks weaker without Tucker in it, so perhaps the Astros will look to bolster the group in the coming weeks and months.

Time will tell how the move plays out in the full offseason for both clubs. But for today, the Cubs have added a huge talent to the roster without giving up anything truly heartbreaking. The Astros have lost that huge talent but could have made up a decent amount of his value in the short term while clearly helping themselves in the long term.

Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reported this morning that the Cubs and Astros were “circling” on a deal involving Tucker, Paredes and Smith. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first mentioned Wesneski’s inclusion. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the deal was done.

Cubs Sign Carson Kelly

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The Cubs finalized a two-year free agent deal with catcher Carson Kelly on Friday evening. The CAA client is reportedly guaranteed $11.5MM with the chance to earn another $500K annually via incentives. Kelly will make $5MM salaries in each of the next two seasons and is guaranteed a $1.5MM buyout on a $7.5MM mutual option for 2027. He’d trigger a $250K bonus for starting 81 and 91 games in each season. Chicago already had a 40-man roster vacancy after dealing two roster players in this afternoon’s Kyle Tucker trade.

Kelly was the top unsigned catcher. The thin market has moved quickly. Travis d’Arnaud, Kyle Higashioka, Gary Sánchez, Danny Jansen, Jacob Stallings and Austin Hedges have all gotten MLB deals. Kelly joins Higashioka and d’Arnaud in securing a second guaranteed year and exceeding the $10MM mark.

The righty-swinging backstop had a nice year in 2024. Kelly started the season particularly well, hitting .240/.325/.391 with seven home runs in 203 trips to the plate for the Tigers. Detroit dealt him to the Rangers at the deadline. That was designed to give Kelly a chance to join a contender, but the Rangers sputtered while the Tigers made a surprise playoff push in the final couple months. Kelly’s bat tailed off after the move, as he hit .235/.291/.343 with two homers over 31 games as a Ranger.

That mediocre finish led Texas to pursue Higashioka instead. Still, Kelly’s combined .238/.313/.374 slash line in 313 plate appearances is solid work from a part-time catcher. Statcast graded him positively for his work behind the plate, crediting him with better than average framing and blocking metrics. While Kelly’s raw arm strength was middle of the pack, he cut down an above-average 26.3% of basestealers.

That was a rebound after Kelly had consecutive poor offensive showings in 2022 and ’23. He combined for a .210/.281/.320 slash between the Diamondbacks and Tigers. Kelly had intermittently shown the upside to be a true #1 catcher early in his career in Arizona. He has since settled in as a quality part-time player.

That’s the role he should play in Chicago. The Cubs can somewhat evenly divide playing time between Kelly and 25-year-old Miguel Amaya. A former top prospect, Amaya struggled early in the year before going on a tear in the final two months of the season. He ended the season with a .232/.288/.357 slash over 363 plate appearances. The strong finish wasn’t enough for the Cubs to forego the catching market entirely, yet it lessened their urgency to entertain trading from the top of the farm system for a clear starter.

Kelly’s salary bumps Chicago’s projected payroll to roughly $199MM, according to the calculations at RosterResource. The $5.75MM average annual value pushes their estimated competitive balance tax number to $215MM. That leaves them around $25MM below the base luxury tax threshold.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported on Monday that the Cubs and Kelly were closing in on a deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the $11.5MM guarantee. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers first reported the presence of the ’27 mutual option and the potential $500K in annual incentives. Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic had the salary breakdown and specifics on the bonuses. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Cubs Close To Deal For Kyle Tucker

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1:20pm: Right-hander Hayden Wesneski is also involved in the talks, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

1:03pm: The Cubs and Astros are “close” to an agreement on a Tucker trade, tweets Heyman. Ari Alexander of KPRC-2 in Houston reports that the two sides have discussed a return that would send Paredes, Smith and a third player to Houston.

12:56pm: Talks between the two sides have “continued to gain momentum,” Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports. Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that Smith and Paredes are “among the names being discussed,” suggesting others could indeed be in play.

9:10am: The Cubs and Astros have been in talks on a trade that would send star outfielder Kyle Tucker from Houston to Chicago in exchange for infielder Isaac Paredes and 2024 first-round pick Cam Smith, reports Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. It’s not yet clear whether other players are involved on either end. There’s no indication a deal is nearing the finish line.

Tucker, 27, only recently emerged as a viable trade candidate. The former No. 5 overall pick broke out as an everyday player in 2020 and has since elevated himself to one of the game’s best young players all around. Over the past four seasons, he’s turned in a .280/.362/.527 slash with 112 homers, 80 steals, an 11.3% walk rate and just a 15.1% strikeout rate. A fracture in his shin cost him much of the 2024 season, but he had his most productive season ever when healthy: .289/.408/.585, 23 homers, 16.5% walk rate in 78 games.

Tucker is a year from reaching free agency as a 28-year-old and is poised to command the type of mega-contract that Astros owner Jim Crane has been unwilling to offer; Houston’s longest contract under Crane has been Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM deal. Jose Altuve’s $151MM extension is the largest in terms of overall guarantee. Tucker could command double that guarantee in free agency over a significantly longer term than Alvarez’s deal.

For the Cubs, adding Tucker would only further increase the likelihood of trading Cody Bellinger and/or Seiya Suzuki. Tucker would supplant both in right field. Chicago already has young Michael Busch at first base and Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field. Left fielder Ian Happ has a full no-trade clause. There’d be no obvious spot to play either Bellinger or Suzuki other than designated hitter. That’d be a waste of Bellinger’s solid defensive skills, and Suzuki has a preference to play in the field rather than slot in as a primary DH. He also has a full no-trade clause, further complicating matters.

The trio of players’ contracts are worth keeping in mind, too. Tucker is entering his final season of club control and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $15.8MM this coming season. Bellinger is guaranteed a $27.5MM salary next season and has a $25MM player option with a $5MM buyout for the 2026 season. In essence, he’s guaranteed at least $32.5MM for one year and perhaps $52.5MM over the next two seasons, pending that opt-out decision. Suzuki has two years to go on his five-year, $85MM contract and will earn $18MM in each of the next two seasons.

For the Astros, trading Tucker would be a tough pill to swallow. Crane has voiced a willingness to pay the luxury tax if the right situation presents itself but seems to rather clearly prefer to avoid doing so for what would be a second straight season. The ’Stros have been angling to bring longtime third baseman Alex Bregman back into the fold, but he’s been seeking a deal north of $200MM while Houston’s most recent reported offer was for six years and $156MM. That the Astros are looking at not only an immediate big league option at the hot corner (Paredes) but also a recent first-round pick whose primary position is third base (Smith) at least implies some pessimism of completing a reunion with Bregman.

That said, the Astros also have a need at first base. Paredes could capably fill that role, as he’s played all four infield positions throughout his big league career. He’s primarily been a third baseman, but he does have nearly 400 innings at first base under his belt. It’s at least possible that the Astros could use the payroll space created by a potential Tucker trade to re-sign Bregman, play Paredes at first base and then simply be content to add a player with Smith’s overall upside to the upper tiers of their system. Smith isn’t likely to be a big league option until 2026 anyhow, and his bat is his calling card; a move to an outfield corner isn’t out of the question at some point.

Paredes, 26 in February, went from the Rays to the Cubs at the 2024 trade deadline and struggled in his new environs. The versatile slugger hit .250/.342/.488 and belted 31 homers for Tampa Bay in 2023 and looked well on his way to approximating that production in ’24 when he hit .245/.357/.435 with the Rays prior to the trade. With Chicago, however, Paredes slumped to a tepid .223/.305/.307 slash in 212 plate appearances.

Those struggles notwithstanding, Paredes is a .234/.338/.437 hitter (123 wRC+) who’s swatted 70 homers while playing four different positions across the past three seasons. He’s walked in a strong 11.2% of his plate appearances during that span against a 17.3% strikeout rate that’s about five percentage points lower than average. He’s projected to earn $6.9MM in 2025 and is under club control through the 2027 season. He’d be a long-term add for the Astros who can help out at a variety of positions and who would offer a solid bat against righties and plus production against southpaws (.274/.366/.456). On top of that, he ranked third among all qualified MLB hitters in pull percentage this season and posted the second-lowest ground-ball rate in that same set. An extreme-pull righty bat with that kind of penchant for elevating the ball seems almost tailor-made for Houston’s short left field porch.

Smith, meanwhile, was just selected with the No. 14 pick last summer and signed for a bonus a bit north of $5MM. The Florida State product absolutely torched minor league pitching with a .313/.396/.609 slash in 134 plate appearances across two Class-A levels and Double-A. It was one of the best debut performances of any draftee and only served to further elevate his already considerable prospect stock. Baseball America ranks Smith sixth in a deep Cubs farm system that in 2024 boasted six of the game’s top 100 prospects. Smith will likely be included on several top-100 rankings ahead of the 2025 season.

Currently, RosterResource projects the Astros for a $215MM bottom-line payroll with nearly $234MM of luxury tax obligations. That leaves them about $7MM shy of this season’s $241MM tax threshold. Moving Tucker would open up quite a bit of breathing room, as would a trade of reliever Ryan Pressly, whose name has also frequented the rumor circuit this offseason. He’s owed $14MM but can veto any trade scenario as a player with 10-and-5 rights (10 years of MLB service, including the past five with the same team). Astros general manager Dana Brown said early in the offseason that his club might need to be “creative” to address roster needs amid payroll uncertainty, and talk of potential deals involving Tucker, Pressly and lefty Framber Valdez all fit under that umbrella.

Cubs Finalize Coaching Staff

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Earlier this week, the Cubs announced their coaching staff for the 2025 season. As part of the announcement, the club revealed that former major league field coordinator Mark Strittmatter will take over from Darren Holmes as bullpen coach, while A.J. Lewis has come aboard as a staff assistant.

The Cubs also confirmed the previously reported hiring of first base coach Jose Javier, third base coach Quintin Berry, and assistant pitching coach Casey Jacobson. Rounding out manager Craig Counsell’s staff are returning coaches Ryan Flaherty (bench coach), Tommy Hottovy (pitching coach), Dustin Kelly (hitting coach), Juan Cabreja (assistant hitting coach), John Mallee (assistant hitting coach), Jonathan Mota (major league coach), and Alex Smith (major league strategy coach).

Strittmatter, 55, has plenty of experience working with pitchers in the bullpen. From 2003-10, he was a bullpen catcher for the Rockies. After a brief stint on the Pirates major league coaching staff, he returned to the Rockies in 2013. He worked as the organization’s minor league catching coordinator up until he joined the Cubs ahead of the 2024 season. Prior to his coaching career, Strittmatter played nine minor league seasons as a catcher in the Rockies and Padres systems. He made a handful of MLB appearances for Colorado in 1998.

Lewis, 26, also comes over from the Rockies organization. After signing with the club as an undrafted free agent in 2020, he played four seasons in their minor league system, appearing at every level from Low-A to Triple-A. While he was primarily a catcher in college, he appeared in a handful of games at several positions during his minor league tenure, including catcher, first base, second base, third base, and left field. Back in 2022, he told Thomas Harding of MLB.com that he hoped to join a major league front office at the end of his player career. If that is still his goal, this could be a step in the right direction.

In further Cubs news, the team announced that two members of the minor league strength and conditioning staff have been promoted to major league roles. Kevin Poppe will serve as head major league strength coach, while Mark Weisman will be the assistant major league strength coach. Both Poppe and Weisman joined the organization in 2022.

Latest On Yankees’ Offseason Plans

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The Yankees’ offseason was largely focused on Juan Soto until he agreed to a new deal with the Mets, which has pushed the Yanks towards various backup plans. They now have agreements in place with Max Fried and Jonathan Loáisiga but there’s still plenty more work to be done. They are seemingly looking for an outfielder, a couple of infielders and more bullpen help. That could come from further free agent signings but they also have a rotation surplus that could help them on the trade market.

One name they have frequently been connected to is Cody Bellinger of the Cubs. He is capable of playing either the outfield or first base, two spots where the Yankees need help, though Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the Yanks probably view Bellinger as a better fit in left field.

The Yanks are expected to move Aaron Judge back to right field, after he served as the club’s primary center fielder while sharing the roster with Soto. Now that Soto is gone, it seems the plan is to give Jasson Domínguez a chance to seize the center field job, with Trent Grisham around as a glove-first insurance option. They would still need a solution in left, since Alex Verdugo is now a free agent, though Bellinger is a possibility there. Bellinger has played left field far less than center or right but there’s no reason to think he couldn’t handle himself over there.

Lining up with the Cubs on value may be an issue, however. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that the Cubs are hoping for the Yankees to take on most of his remaining contract, while the Yanks think the Cubs should be eating some more money in the deal.

Bellinger had a chance to opt out of his deal last month and didn’t take it, which implies that he thinks his current contract is better than what he could get on the open market, at least for now. He is set to make $27.5MM in 2025, then with a choice between a $5MM buyout or a $25MM salary in 2026. If he were a free agent right now, he could perhaps secure a long-term deal with a guarantee larger than the $52.5MM he’s currently owed, but his current deal has short-term appeal. There is still a path towards him having a good season in 2025, banking $32.5MM this year and returning to the open market.

That would be the best case scenario for the Yankees or any acquiring team. If Bellinger produces at a level commensurate with that salary and leaves, that’s a nice scenario for the upcoming campaign. But there’s also the alternate reality where he disappoints, it overpaid this coming season and then sticks around for 2026 as well.

Bellinger’s inconsistent career makes either path possible to see and teams will have differing opinions about which is more likely or what they are willing to risk for the right to take a chance. At the moment, it seems the Yankees and Cubs aren’t in alignment on the calculations but Heyman says progress has been made this week.

Though he won an MVP award back in 2019, Bellinger struggled immensely in 2021 and 2022 while trying to get back in form after shoulder surgery. His past two seasons have both been good but to varying degrees. He hit .307/.356/.525 for a 136 wRC+ in 2023 while stealing 20 bases, but then hit .266/.325/.426 for a 109 wRC+ this year while swiping nine bags.

Another possible target area for the Yanks is third base. They do have Jazz Chisholm Jr. as an in-house possibility there, but he could move him to second base if they were to acquire someone like Nolan Arenado or Alex Bregman for the hot corner.

The Cardinals are exploring the market for Arenado, who has a full no-trade clause. It was reported earlier this week that Arenado is willing to approve trades to six teams. The Yankees weren’t on there but it’s possible that the list wasn’t exhaustive. Feinsand relays that it’s expected Arenado would approve a trade to the Bronx. That’s a logical conclusion since Arenado seems to want to play for a contender and there’s no doubting the Yanks qualify there. They just made it to the World Series and are clearly being aggressive in ramping up for another push next year.

Arenado hasn’t been his usual self over the past two years, however, and it’s fair to wonder if he can get back there now that he’s on the cusp of his 34th birthday. He hit .293/.358/.533 for a 149 wRC+ as recently as 2022 but has slashed a combined .269/.320/.426 for a 104 wRC+ over the past two years. His strong third base defense still makes him an attractive option but, like Bellinger, he’s making notable money. He is set to make $74MM over the next three years, though the Rockies are covering $10MM of that and there are also deferrals.

Bregman is likely viewed as a better option in the short term, but there are complications. He’s going into his age-31 season, making him notably younger than Arenado. He doesn’t quite have the same defensive reputation but is above average in the field. He hit .260/.315/.453 for a 118 wRC+ inf 2024 and was even better after an early-season slump. He hit .280/.329/.509 from May 9 through the end of the year for a 137 wRC+.

But as a free agent, he’s going to command a contract larger than what’s left on Arenado’s deal. MLBTR predicted him for a contract worth $182MM over seven years and the market has been hot so far this winter, so that might be selling him short at this point. There’s also the lingering resentment from the 2017 sign-stealing scandal that was eventually brought to light, creating enough bitterness that general manager Brian Cashman brought it up unprompted during a recent appearance on MLB Network. However, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports that Bregman’s involvement in that scandal would not stand in the way of the Yankees pursuing him.

In the bullpen, both Feinsand and Hoch mention that the Yankees are interested in left-hander Tanner Scott for their bullpen. He just wrapped up a season in which he posted a 1.75 earned run average, 28.6% strikeout rate, 12.2% walk rate and 50% ground ball rate. The Yankees have a longstanding affinity for ground ball guys and don’t really have a left-handed reliever on the roster at the moment, with Tim Hill and Tim Mayza now free agents.

Scott would be a great fit but should be popular and could earn a notable contract. MLBTR predicted him for $56MM over four years and the aforementioned hot market could make that estimate low at this point.

As the Yankees assess those possible acquisitions, they are also going to be fielding offers on their starting pitchers. They now have Fried, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman as established rotation options, plus depth pieces like JT Brubaker, Cody Poteet, Will Warren and others. Cortes and Stroman have been in trade rumors before but Hoch reports that Gil and Schmidt have drawn interest and Cashman tells him that the club will be “open-minded to all possibilities.”

It’s unsurprising that Gil and Schmidt would draw interest. Gil just won American League Rookie of the Year after posting a 3.50 ERA for the Yanks. Schmidt had a 2.85 ERA but was limited by injury to just 16 starts. Gil is still in his pre-arbitration years and can be controlled through 2028 while Schmidt is projected for a modest $3.5MM next year by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz and can be controlled through 2027.

Storman and Cortes would have less trade value. Stroman is coming off a middling season in which he posted a 4.31 ERA and got bumped from the rotation by the end of the year. He’s going to make $18MM next year and could also unlock a player option of the same value for 2026 if he pitches 140 innings next year. Cortes is now one year away from free agency with a projected $7.7MM salary next year. He had a decent 3.77 ERA this past year but his strikeout rate fell for the third year in a row and he missed a lot of time due to injuries in 2023.

Though Gil or Schmidt would have more value to another club, that’s also true of the Yankees. Their competitive balance tax number is now estimated at $264MM, per RosterResource, meaning they are already over the second tax tier of $261MM and within striking distance of the $281MM third tier. Going over that third tier leads to escalating penalties and also the club’s top draft pick being pushed back ten spots. That is seen as a line for some clubs but the Yanks just finished 2024 with a CBT number of $313MM, so it may not be any kind of red line.

There are still various paths forward for the Yanks via free agency and trade. They’ve also been linked to Christian Walker, Kyle Tucker and plenty of others. Though it’s now the middle of December, their offseason is still very much in the early stages.

2024 Rule 5 Draft Results

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The 2024 Rule 5 draft took place this afternoon at the Winter Meetings in Dallas. The results of the draft are below.

As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and have played five professional seasons, and any players who signed at 19 years of age or older at signing that now have four professional seasons, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

Though the amateur (Rule 4) draft now has a lottery to determine the selection order, the Rule 5 draft still goes the old-fashioned way of reverse order of standings from the season that just ended. Clubs need to have an open 40-man roster spot in order to make a pick but aren’t obligated to make a selection on their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2025 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors.

Last year’s edition saw some key players change clubs. The A’s took Mitch Spence from the Yankees with the top pick and kept him all year. Justin Slaten was plucked from the Rangers by the Mets and then traded to the Red Sox. Players like Anthony Santander and Ryan Pressly have been notable picks in other recent years while guys like George Bell and Roberto Clemente are found deeper in the history books.

Here are this year’s picks…

  1. White Sox: RHP Shane Smith (Brewers) (Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline relayed the pick on Bluesky prior to the draft)
  2. Rockies: pass
  3. Marlins: C Liam Hicks (Tigers)
  4. Angels: LHP Garrett McDaniels (Dodgers)
  5. Athletics: RHP Noah Murdock (Royals)
  6. Nationals: RHP Evan Reifert (Rays)
  7. Blue Jays: RHP Angel Bastardo (Red Sox)
  8. Pirates: pass
  9. Reds: 2B Cooper Bowman (Athletics)
  10. Rangers: pass
  11. Giants: pass
  12. Rays: LHP Nate Lavender (Mets)
  13. Red Sox: pass
  14. Twins: RHP Eiberson Castellano (Phillies)
  15. Cardinals: pass
  16. Cubs: 3B Gage Workman (Tigers)
  17. Mariners: pass
  18. Royals: pass
  19. Tigers: pass
  20. Astros: pass
  21. Mets: pass
  22. D-backs: pass
  23. Braves: RHP Anderson Pilar (Marlins)
  24. Orioles: pass
  25. Guardians: pass
  26. Padres: RHP Juan Nunez (Orioles)
  27. Brewers: LHP Connor Thomas (Cardinals)
  28. Yankees: pass
  29. Phillies: RHP Mike Vasil (Mets); Phillies later traded Vasil to Rays for cash considerations, per announcements from both clubs.
  30. Dodgers: pass

Second round (all but one club passed)

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. Right-hander Hobie Harris, who pitched for the Nationals in 2023 and signed a minor league deal with the Mets last month, was taken by the Red Sox.

Latest On Kyle Tucker’s Trade Candidacy

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11:15am: Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome of The Athletic confirmed Houston’s interest in Smith, Paredes, and Gil in a report this morning while also noting that the Astros have interest in Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki. Suzuki is a trade candidate in his own right but club brass has downplayed their interest in moving him. That disinclination to part with Suzuki is confirmed by the report from Rosenthal and Rome, who note the Cubs are “highly unlikely” to move him.

10:03am: On the heels of Astros GM Dana Brown acknowledging earlier this week that the club isn’t ruling out a trade of either Kyle Tucker with free agency looming next winter, Joel Sherman of the New York Post described the Yankees as among the teams “most seriously” pursuing the outfielder. Sherman adds that the Cubs are viewed as a “strong player” in Tucker’s market as well, however, while the Giants are also involved. The Phillies have “at least inquired” on Tucker previously, per Sherman, but while they tried to put together a package for the outfielder it’s unclear whether or not they remain involved in his market.

Buzz surrounding the possibility of a Tucker trade has increased in the days since Juan Soto signed his record-breaking deal with the Mets, and as the Yankees turn towards their contingency plans for if they failed to reunite with Soto it’s hardly a surprise that they would be involved in talks regarding another star right fielder. Both New York and Chicago’s interest in Tucker’s services has been previously reported, but Sherman’s report notably suggests that the Astros are prioritizing big-league ready corner infield and starting rotation help in trade talks surrounding Tucker. While the Yankees themselves are lacking in corner infield talent, the club reached an agreement with lefty Max Fried yesterday to create a surplus in their rotation, and Sherman adds the Astros are said to be “very interested” in reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil.

The Cubs, by contrast, are flush in the sort of young talent that the Astros seem to be prioritizing. Top infield prospect Matt Shaw is primarily a second baseman by trade but spent the majority of the 2024 season at third base. Sherman notes that Shaw is joined by 2024 first-round Cam Smith and incumbent third baseman Isaac Paredes are “attractive” to the Astros as they run the risk of losing longtime third baseman Alex Bregman in free agency. While not noted in Sherman’s report, it’s also worth noting that Chicago has a number of young pitchers who they could theoretically make available including Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, and Hayden Wesneski.

As for the other teams mentioned in Sherman’s report, both clubs have at least theoretical fits for Houston’s reported ask as well. The Giants have former top prospect Marco Luciano and power-hitting utility man Tyler Fitzgerald as pieces who may be attractive to the Astros as third base options, while right-handers Hayden Birdsong and Mason Black are among the club’s more interesting young pitchers who could be made available. It’s unclear whether any of those names have been discussed or to what level Houston would be interested in them, but San Francisco sports a deep group of young options in both areas. The infielders figure to be particularly available following the club landing Willy Adames in free agency, and the same could be said of the rotation pieces if they’re successful in their reported pursuit of Corbin Burnes.

The Phillies, meanwhile, are known to be making third Alec Bohm available in trade but may be an imperfect fit for the Astros needs. The infielder has just two years of team control remaining, and two years of a solid but unspectacular third baseman seems unlikely to land one year of a star player like Tucker. It’s possible the Phillies could supplement a package including Bohm with starting pitching, but it would be a shock if the club was willing to part ways with top prospect Andrew Painter and other options like Mick Abel and Seth Johnson are likely far less inspiring to the Astros.

Latest On Seiya Suzuki’s Trade Candidacy

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While the overwhelming majority of the focus on the Cubs’ outfield mix this winter has been on the trade candidacy of Cody Bellinger, teammate Seiya Suzuki has emerged as an intriguing trade candidate in his own right in recent weeks. Previous reporting has described the club as “determined” to move one of the two outfielders, and today Suzuki’s agent Joel Wolfe offered notable insight on the possibility of his client getting dealt, as relayed by ESPN’s Jesse Rogers.

Wolfe told reporters (including Rogers) this afternoon that Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer approached him last night about which teams are interested in Suzuki’s services. Notably, Suzuki has a full no-trade clause, meaning that he and Wolfe are free to reject any trade proposal involving the outfielder. Wolfe suggested that while Suzuki is theoretically open to a trade, he added that “it’s a pretty small universe” in terms of teams he would be willing to entertain being moved to.

In addition to confirming that there are teams at least inquiring on Suzuki’s availability, Wolfe’s comments also revealed one potential motivation for Suzuki to entertain trade offers: his desire to play the outfield on a regular basis. Following the emergence of top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong as the club’s everyday center fielder last summer, Suzuki found himself parked at DH on a regular basis once the club’s outfield mix was fully health and Bellinger cemented himself as the club’s regular right fielder. That’s a situation he was evidently displeased with, as Wolfe suggested that Suzuki likely “would not have signed with a team” who pitched being their everyday DH to him in free agency.

That potential source of discord between player and team shines a new light on the Cubs’ efforts to trade either Suzuki or Bellinger this winter. With Ian Happ locked in as the club’s left fielder and Crow-Armstrong having cemented himself in center, it’s undeniable that the club’s best defensive alignment with their current group of players involves Bellinger in right field with Suzuki at DH. Suzuki was well-regarded defensively for his work in the outfield during his NPB days but has oscillated between average and below average throughout his three seasons in the big leagues according to defensive metrics. His -3 Outs Above Average last year ranked 33rd among 42 qualified right fielders. While Bellinger did not get enough reps to qualify, he’s earned +2 Outs Above Average for his work across all three outfield spots in two seasons with the Cubs and is generally regarded as a plus defender in an outfield corner.

Of course, that’s not to say the Cubs would necessarily prefer to trade Suzuki. Indeed, the club’s apparent aggressiveness in shopping Bellinger suggests just the opposite, and it’s not hard to see why. For one things, Bellinger’s $27.5MM salary in 2025 eclipses the $19MM Suzuki is owed this year, and Bellinger’s player option for 2026 offers Chicago less certainty moving forward than Suzuki’s guaranteed contract. What’s more, Suzuki is a better hitter and perhaps even the best hitter on the team. The 29-year-old’s .283/.366/.482 (138 wRC+) slash line this year dwarfs Bellinger’s own line of .266/.325/.426 (109 wRC+), and Suzuki has long been a statcast darling who hits the ball hard and takes his walks compared to Bellinger’s low exit velocities and contact-oriented approach.

To that end, Cubs GM Carter Hawkins spoke to reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) this afternoon and downplayed the likelihood of a trade.

“We don’t want to trade Seiya,” Hawkins said, as relayed by Montemurro. “but, look, as [Wolfe] talked about there’s people interested in great players and so if teams come asking those are at least conversations that we’re willing to have, but I really don’t think much is going to come of it.“

Hawkins’s comments lend further credence to previous reporting regarding Suzuki’s availability that suggested while the Cubs were willing to entertain offers for the slugger, a deal was only likely to come together if Chicago was unable to trade Bellinger. To this point, Bellinger has received reported interest from the Yankees, Mariners, Astros, and Diamondbacks at the very least, suggesting that a Bellinger trade remains the more likely outcome unless the market for his services falls apart in the coming days and weeks.

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