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No Recent Contract Talks Between Braves, Charlie Morton

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Charlie Morton is still deciding whether to return for an 18th big league season, according to The Athletic’s Jayson Stark. If he does choose to play, the righty may need to find a new landing spot after four years with the Braves.

Stark’s colleague David O’Brien writes that Morton and the Braves have not had any recent contract talks. Atlanta and Morton had preliminary discussions shortly after the postseason, but it appears the team has pivoted to other targets as they look for outfield and pitching help. Morton is open to pitching elsewhere, though O’Brien writes that the two-time All-Star prefers teams that host Spring Training near his home in Bradenton, Florida. In addition to Atlanta, the Blue Jays, Rays, Yankees, Phillies, Orioles, Pirates and Tigers are among the teams that could fit that description.

Morton played this past season on a $20MM club option. Even in a strong pitching market, he’ll probably need to take a reduction this winter. Morton turned in back-of-the-rotation results over 30 starts. He worked to a 4.19 ERA across 165 1/3 innings. Morton struck out 23.8% of batters faced with a 46.3% ground-ball percentage. While that was his strongest grounder rate since 2021, his strikeouts have dropped in consecutive seasons. Morton fanned 25.6% of opponents in 2023 and posted a 28.2% strikeout rate back in ’22.

The velocity and swinging strike rate have also gone backwards slightly. Morton averaged roughly 94 MPH on his fastball and posted an 11.4% swinging strike rate. Both numbers are solid but below his 2021-23 production. Those yellow flags started to catch up to him as the season progressed. Morton carried a 4.07 ERA into the All-Star Break. He allowed 4.37 earned runs per nine while opponents hit .279/.357/.469 in the second half.

None of that is to say that Morton isn’t still a solid pitcher. There’s value in a veteran who can top 150 innings with roughly league average results. Even if he projects more as a #4/5 starter than the mid-rotation arm he’s been for most of his career, he could land something like the $13MM which Kyle Gibson got last winter.

That could be beyond Atlanta’s comfort zone financially. The Braves pushed close to the third tier of luxury tax penalization this year, their second straight season paying the tax. It doesn’t appear they’re inclined to match that spending level next season. RosterResource calculates their CBT number around $217MM, including arbitration estimates. That puts them around $24MM shy of the base threshold.

Atlanta could look to limbo under the tax line to reset their status and avoid the escalating penalties levied on repeat payors. That doesn’t appear to be a firm mandate, however. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said at the Winter Meetings that the Braves would be willing to pay the tax again under certain circumstances. “It’s just a percentage you’re going up. It’s for every dollar over. You’re aware of it, but it doesn’t stop you from doing anything,” he said (link via Mark Bowman of MLB.com). “If the right opportunity presents itself, we’ll do it.”

That said, Atlanta’s start to the winter has been quiet. They restructured deals for Aaron Bummer and Reynaldo López to move some money back to future seasons. The Braves dumped Jorge Soler’s salary for no return, as they ended up non-tendering the player they acquired (Griffin Canning). Atlanta seemingly made little effort to retain Max Fried, nor is there any indication they made a serious play for speculative target Willy Adames. Their only MLB acquisitions thus far are split deals for Carlos D. Rodriguez and Connor Gillispie.

The Braves have almost never been free agent spenders under Anthopoulos. They’ve made much more of an impact on the trade market. Perhaps there’s another such move on the horizon, but they could also be relying on internal rotation options to step up after losing Fried and Morton.

Chris Sale will lead the staff on the heels of his first Cy Young win. López and Spencer Schwellenbach slot behind him as a strong 2-3 combination. Spencer Strider isn’t going to be ready for Opening Day, but he could return from his internal brace procedure within the season’s first half. The back of the staff is questionable. Ian Anderson hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since 2022. AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep struggled with their command in the minors. Bryce Elder performed well in Triple-A but was rocked for a 6.52 ERA in 10 major league starts.

That could open a rotation opportunity for Grant Holmes depending on how the remainder of the offseason progresses. The 28-year-old righty pitched mostly in relief this year, working to a 3.56 ERA over 26 MLB appearances (seven starts). Anthopoulos said this week that the Braves were intrigued by the possibility for Holmes to grab a rotation job in Spring Training. “He’s someone that we’d like to find out what he can do, because we do think there’s significant upside there if he can get a starting spot,” Anthopoulos said (link via Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). “But again, that won’t stop us from either trading for or signing any starter.”

Charlie Morton Planning To Pitch In 2025

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Veteran right-hander Charlie Morton has seemingly been mulling retirement for more than a half decade, but he’s continued his career on a series of one-year deals, leaving open the possibility that each successive year will be his last. That won’t be the case with 2024, however. ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes that Morton intends to suit up for an 18th MLB season next year.

Morton, who turns 41 today (happy birthday, Charlie!), has spent the past four seasons in Atlanta, anchoring the rotation as a durable innings eater amid frequent injury troubles throughout the rest of the starting staff. Despite those years representing his age-37 through age-40 campaigns, Morton has made at least 30 starts and pitched at least 163 1/3 innings each of the past four seasons. He’s provided more than just bulk work, as well; in 686 1/3 innings for the Braves, the grizzled righty has pitched to a sharp 3.87 ERA while striking out 26.6% of his opponents against a 9.3% walk rate.

The 2024 season wasn’t Morton’s best in Atlanta but was still a solid year all around. He logged 165 1/3 frames and turned in a 4.19 earned run average. Last year’s 23.8% strikeout rate was Morton’s lowest since his late-career breakout with the Astros, which began in his age-33 season, but it was still enough to check in about a percentage point north of league-average. Morton’s 9.3% walk rate was worse than average but marked an improvement over the career-worst 11.6% mark he turned in during the 2023 season. His 46.3% grounder rate was strong, and he generally did a fine job avoiding hard contact. It wasn’t the Cy Young-caliber performance Morton flashed in his 2018-19 peak, but it was a fine showing for a veteran third or fourth starter.

Logically speaking, a reunion with the Braves seems possible. Atlanta is looking for innings behind staff leaders Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez and Spencer Schwellenbach. Young ace Spencer Strider will miss the beginning of the season as he continues mending from last year’s UCL surgery. Longtime Atlanta star Max Fried is a free agent and seems likely to sign elsewhere on a contract beyond the Braves’ comfort zone. Morton has also been happy to pitch in the southeast region of the country, close to his young family in Florida.

On the other hand, the Braves are all but certain to pay the luxury tax for a third straight season this year. That’ll mean at least a 50% tax on any dollars over the luxury barrier, and perhaps more — depending on the extent by which they surpass this year’s $241MM mark. Morton earned $15MM from 2019-21 and has been paid $20MM in each of the past three seasons in Atlanta. Even if he’s likely looking at a pay cut from that level, he should still be able to land a salary north of $10MM, barring an unexpected discount to pitch in a locale of his preference. For an Atlanta club also looking to upgrade at shortstop and add to the bullpen in the wake of Joe Jimenez’s injury, a hefty one-year price tag on what’d be a fourth or fifth starter for them when or if everyone is healthy might be a bridge too far. Per RosterResource, the Braves’ current luxury projection is already at $228MM — just $13MM shy of this year’s threshold.

If Morton does end up leaving the Braves, it’s likely he’ll land with a contending club. At age 41, he’s unlikely to sign on for any rebuilding efforts or to mentor a group of young arms. He’ll look for an opportunity to pitch in the middle of what already looks like a postseason staff, adding some stability and significantly raising the floor of a new club’s rotation.

Morton would also have the chance to reach some more personal milestones; Morton is 12 wins shy of 150 in his career and would have a realistic chance at moving into the top-70 all time in strikeouts (he’s currently 82nd). With a strong performance in 2025, he could also nudge his career ERA under 4.00. He entered the 2024 season at 4.00 flat and raised it to 4.01 with this season’s 4.19 performance.

Latest On The Braves’ Rotation Plans

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On the heels of the Braves’ abrupt elimination from the postseason after being swept out of the Wild Card Series in two games by the Padres, Atlanta will now turn its attention to the coming offseason.

The dominating narrative of the club’s winter figures to be the future of longtime starter Max Fried, who has been a stalwart of the club’s rotation for the past half decade but is slated to hit free agency in November. The 30-year-old southpaw figures to be one of the better starting pitching options on the free agent market this winter alongside former NL Cy Young award winners Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell. In 112 starts since the start of the 2020 season, Fried has pitched to a sterling 2.81 ERA (151 ERA+) with a 3.11 FIP in 659 innings of work. That’s the sort of run prevention talent that’s sure to score a significant payday in free agency, even in spite of his relatively pedestrian 23.6% strikeout rate over that same window.

What’s unclear at this point, however, is how involved the Braves will be in the bidding process for his services in 2025 and beyond. Fried is a key part of the club’s nucleus of talent and was a major piece of their 2021 World Series championship, but the same could also be said of both Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson when the pair hit free agency. Both Freeman and Swanson ultimately signed hefty contracts elsewhere while the Braves managed to continue to contend without them. As noted by The Athletic’s David O’Brien, it would not be a surprise to see the club follow a similar path with Fried. After all, Atlanta figures to welcome Spencer Strider back into the rotation sometime early next year, and the immensely talented righty would form a frightening front-end duo with likely NL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale.

Such a fearsome pairing at the front of the rotation could make the Braves comfortable with losing Fried, and O’Brien suggests that the club’s offseason shopping list may only require adding a veteran depth starter who can help fill things out behind Strider, Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, and Spencer Schwellenbach. While such a pursuit “seems likely,” O’Brien does note that the club could also simply stick with its deep internal reservoir of optionable starting talent that includes Hurston Waldrep, Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Ian Anderson.

Both Elder and Anderson have enjoyed significant success in the majors previously, while the club trusted Smith-Shawver to take the ball in Game 1 against the Padres earlier this week and Waldrep entered 2024 as a consensus top-50 prospect int he sport. It’s certainly feasible that one or more of those arms could emerge as a quality piece of the rotation mix in Atlanta next year, the quartet posted a combined 7.23 ERA in 61 innings of work in the majors this year. What’s more, only Elder has significant recent big league experience among that group: Waldrep and Smith-Shawver have combined for just nine total big league appearances in their careers, while Anderson last pitched in the majors back in 2022.

With such uncertainty surrounding those young options, it seems like adding another proven starter to the rotation mix should be a priority for the club even if they don’t aggressively pursue a reunion with Fried. Should the Braves shy away from the top of the market this winter, a handful of interesting mid-rotation arms should be available such as Michael Wacha, Andrew Heaney, and Luis Severino. Even a back-end starter in the mold of Michael Lorenzen or Martin Perez could be a solid addition that would provide the club with some stability in the #5 spot of its rotation while still leaving the door open for one of that aforementioned group of internal arms to seize a rotation spot. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently previewed the upcoming class of free agent starters, many of whom could be plausible fits for the club’s needs this winter.

Even if the club does pursue an innings-eating veteran for the back of its rotation, O’Brien notes that the club re-signing Charlie Morton for that role is “unlikely.” He goes on to relay that the organization believes the soon to be 41-year-old veteran could opt to call it a career rather than continue pitching in 2025 despite his roughly league average 4.19 ERA in 30 starts with Atlanta this year. A Florida native, Morton has preferred to pitch close to home in recent years, having pitched two seasons with the Rays from 2019-20 before pitching for Atlanta in each of the past four seasons. Given that, it would hardly be a surprise if the veteran decided it was time to hang ’em up and spend more time at home with his family even as Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution notes that Morton has so far said that he isn’t ready to make any announcements about his future one way or the other at this point.

Braves Exercise Club Option On Charlie Morton, Decline Options On Kirby Yates, Collin McHugh

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The Braves are bringing back veteran right-hander Charlie Morton for another season in 2024, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan, as the club will exercise their $20MM team option on his services. Meanwhile, Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution relays that the club is expected to decline their club option on veteran reliever Kirby Yates, opting to pay him a $1.25MM buyout rather than a $5.75MM salary for 2024. Atlanta also announced they’ve bought out right-hander Collin McHugh for $1MM instead of a $6MM option.

Charlie Morton | Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Morton at one point publicly indicated uncertainty as to whether he’d pitched beyond his mid-30s, but he’s remained a high-quality starter who’ll now return to Atlanta for a fourth year in what will be his age-40 campaign. The veteran righty started 30 games with the Braves this past season, pitching to a 3.64 ERA with a 25.6% strikeout rate, 11.6% walk rate and 43.3% ground-ball rate over the life of 163 1/3 innings. That walk rate was abnormally high for Morton, who’d issued a free pass to just 8% of his opponents in the past six seasons combined, but his fastball velocity held strong at 95 mph.

While Morton isn’t necessarily the top-tier starter he was during his first season in Atlanta, he remains a quality mid-rotation arm. Given the strength of Atlanta’s pitching, he needn’t be any more than that, either. Lefty Max Fried and young righty Spencer Strider rank among the National League’s best starters, and Morton gives manager Brian Snitker and the organization a playoff-tested veteran to slot into the rotation behind that excellent pairing.

Righty Bryce Elder’s breakout 2023 campaign likely secured him a 2024 rotation spot as well, and the Braves currently have righties AJ Smith-Shawver, Michael Soroka, Ian Anderson (returning from Tommy John surgery) and lefties Dylan Dodd, Jared Shuster and Kolby Allard as depth options beyond that group. Kyle Wright will miss the 2024 season after undergoing October shoulder surgery, making Morton’s return and the steadiness that he brings to the table all the more pivotal.

The $20MM price point at which Morton returns has become the going rate for mid-rotation help — particularly given the short term of the deal. Fellow righties like Jameson Taillon (four years, $68MM) and Taijuan Walker (four years, $72MM) secured $17-18MM annual salaries on longer-term deals elsewhere in the league with the general expectation of functioning as third/fourth starters. With that salary now locked in, Atlanta’s payroll pushes north of $202MM, per Roster Resource — though trades, potential non-tenders and future free agent dealings will surely alter that number in the weeks and months to come.

As for Yates, he’ll head back to the open market after spending the past two seasons in Atlanta. The Braves inked him to a two-year, $8.25MM contract in the 2021-22 offseason, knowing he’d miss the majority of the ’22 campaign while recovering from Tommy John surgery. The former All-Star closer and 2019 NL saves leader (41) was one of the game’s best relievers during a brief two-year peak, but he pitched just seven innings in 2022 and battled considerable command issues this past season.

While Yates’ 3.28 ERA during his second Braves campaign was plenty solid, he also walked 14.6% of his opponents. At his best, Yates anchored the Padres’ bullpen with a 1.67 ERA, 38.7% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate, but that form wasn’t on display in Atlanta this year. The Braves were discouraged enough — and possess enough pitching depth — to turn down a net $4.5MM call on Yates, who’ll now head back to the open market in search for a new opportunity in advance of his age-37 season.

McHugh also spent two years as a Brave after signing as a free agent. He had a strong first season but struggled to a 4.30 ERA with a modest 17.5% strikeout rate in 2023. His season ended in early September when he landed on the injured list with inflammation in his throwing shoulder.

Meanwhile, Atlanta will rely on a relief corps headlined by Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter and recent re-signees Joe Jimenez (three years, $26MM) and Pierce Johnson (two years, $14.25MM). Both trade acquisitions were set to be free agents before putting pen to paper on new contracts within the past five weeks.

NL East Notes: Harper, Braves, Mets

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One of the biggest questions facing the Phillies this offseason focuses on what position superstar slugger Bryce Harper will play in 2024. The 2024 campaign figures to be Harper’s first full campaign in the field since 2021, as Harper battled a partially torn UCL in 2022 before undergoing Tommy John surgery. That limited Harper to playing DH primarily in both 2022 and 2023, though Harper was able to move to first base late in the 2023 season, filling a hole left by Rhys Hoskins’s ACL injury during spring training. A decision on Harper’s position next year is expected to come in the near future, as president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski indicated to reporters (including Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer) that Harper’s preferred position will be taken into consideration when building the team’s 2024 roster.

With Harper at first base in recent months, the Phillies have been able to use Kyle Schwarber at DH while playing both Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas in the outfield to improve the club’s outfield defense. If Harper were to return to his native right field in 2024, that would seemingly leave Nick Castellanos to move over to left field, with Marsh and Rojas platooning in center. Speculatively speaking, that could open the door for the club to resign Hoskins in free agency or look into other potential first base bats like Brandon Belt and Jeimer Candelario. On the other hand, if Harper plays first base primarily next season, the club could look to add an additional outfielder such as Teoscar Hernandez, Adam Duvall, or Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to deepen their outfield group.

More from around the NL East…

  • David O’Brien of The Athletic recently discussed the future of the Braves rotation, which in part hinges upon the decisions made regarding veteran righty Charlie Morton. It’s as of yet unclear if the 40-year-old hurler intends to continue playing in 2024, and separately it’s an open question whether or not the Braves will exercise a $20MM club option for his services in 2024 or allow him to hit the open market. With Kyle Wright out of commission until 2025 due to shoulder surgery, parting ways with Morton would leave only Spencer Strider, Max Fried, and Bryce Elder locked into rotation spots headed into the 2024 season. O’Brien makes it clear that righty AJ Smith-Shawver is part of the club’s future plans in some capacity, noting the Braves informed teams that Smith-Shawver was “all but untouchable.” Still, even if the club plans to utilizie Elder and Smith-Shawver at the back of the rotation in 2024, they would likely need to replace Morton externally with a veteran arm rather than relying on youngsters like Darius Vines, Dylan Dodd, and Jared Shuster, all of whom may be better suited for depth roles.
  • SNY’s Danny Abriano recently discussed the options the Mets have at their disposal at third base for the 2024 season. While the third base market features interesting names such as Candelario and top option Matt Chapman, Abriano suggests that the club should stick to its internal options at the hot corner for the 2024 campaign. Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio would appear to be the club’s top contenders for the everyday third base job internally. Baty struggled badly with a .212/.275/.323 slash line in 389 trips to the plate in the majors this year, though his pedigree as a consensus top-30 prospect and his phenomenal minor league numbers suggest the 23-year-old could take the next step in 2024. Mauricio, meanwhile, also struggled at the plate (.248/.296/.347 in 108 plate appearances) and is widely regarded as having a lower offensive ceiling than Baty, but brings quality defense and baserunning to the table when compared to Baty’s defensive miscues at the position. Another factor for the Mets could be top infield prospect Luisangel Acuna, who Abriano suggests will eventually take over second base, which could free up Jeff McNeil to move to third if Baty and Mauricio both struggle in the early parts of the 2024 season.

Alex Anthopoulous Discusses Upcoming Braves Offseason

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After posting an MLB-best 104-58 record during the regular season this year, the Braves were once again vanquished in four games by the Phillies during the NLDS. With the club’s 2023 campaign now officially in the rearview, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulous conducted Atlanta’s end-of-season press conference yesterday. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman and David O’Brien of The Athletic were among those to relay Anthopoulous’s comments during the presser.

One item Anthopoulous quickly addressed was that of the manager’s seat. The club’s GM quickly made clear that manager Brian Snitker would return to helm the team from the dugout in 2024. The move is hardly a surprise, even as the club found itself exiting the playoffs after just one series for the second year in a row. After all, the Braves have won a combined 205 games the past two seasons, won the World Series in 2021 under Snitker’s leadership, and extended the soon to be 68-year-old with a contract that runs through the 2025 campaign back in January. Since Snitker took over the manager’s chair in Atlanta back in 2016, the club has posted a 646-509 record under his guidance while making the postseason in six consecutive seasons.

Another topic of discussion was the starting rotation. Righties Spencer Strider, Bryce Elder, and lefty Max Fried all figure to return to the club’s rotation in 2024, though Kyle Wright will miss next season after undergoing shoulder surgery. That leaves two spots in the rotation to be filled out, though the club holds a $20MM club option on the services of veteran righty Charlie Morton for next year, which could round out the rotation. Anthopoulous spoke positively of Morton during the presser, noting that his addition ahead of the 2021 season have the club a “frontline starter” for their World Series run. Morton will turn 40 next month, and Bowman suggests that the club could look to work out a different contract with the righty even if they ultimately turn down his option for next season.

Speaking of the rotation more generally, Anthopoulous wouldn’t get into specific offseason plans but acknowledged the club’s struggles with injuries in that area of the roster this season. Morton missed the NLDS this year with an index finger issue, while Fried and Wright followed up excellent seasons in 2022 by combining to make just 21 regular season starts this year as both battled injuries throughout much of the season. Though Morton, Elder, and Strider each made thirty start or more, the absences at the front of the rotation forced the club to rely on depth options like Jared Shuster, Dylan Dodd, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Michael Soroka to cover the club’s last two rotation spots.

16 pitchers ultimately drew starts for Atlanta this season, with the aforementioned quartet combining for 6.10 ERA in 144 2/3 innings of work across 29 starts. Though it’s certainly feasible one of the club’s young arms could take a step forward in 2024, it seems reasonable to expect the Braves to consider potential rotation upgrades this offseason regardless of whether or not Morton remains in the fold for next season. The upcoming class of free agents figures to be flush with mid-rotation or better arms, giving Atlanta plenty of options if they do seek an addition to their current mix of starters.

Looking toward the club’s position player corps, there figures to be little in the way of change this coming offseason. The club’s entire infield mix is locked up for the 2024 campaign and beyond except for utility player Nicky Lopez, who is controlled via arbitration for two more seasons. In the outfield, each of Marcell Ozuna, Michael Harris II, and Ronald Acuna Jr. are under contract for 2024, though Kevin Pillar is a pending free agent and the club holds a $9MM club option on left fielder Eddie Rosario, which seems likely to be declined after he slashed just .240/.289/.408 in 786 trips to the plate the last two seasons.

With Pillar and Rosario both potentially headed to the open market, the club could have a hole to fill in left field next season. The crop of free agent corner outfielders this offseason is headlined by Teoscar Hernandez, though former Braves Joc Pederson, Adam Duvall, and Jorge Soler could all be available as well. One other option for the club’s left field mix could be youngster Vaughn Grissom, who spent much of the season at the Triple-A level after losing out on the starting shortstop job to Orlando Arcia.

Though Grissom hit just .280/.313/.347 in 80 trips to the plate with the big league club this year, Anthopoulous spoke glowingly of the 22-year-old, referencing his strong slash line of .330/.419/.501 in 102 Triple-A games this year. Grissom played exclusively up the middle in the minor leagues this year, mostly playing shortstop with occasional reps at second base. That being said, the youngster has previous experience at third base and could see time in a utility role next year, per Anthopolous. Though he hasn’t played the position previously in his career, it’s at least conceivable such a role could include time in left field. After all, Austin Riley appeared in the outfield just nine times during his minor league career, but wound up getting occasional reps at both outfield corners early in his big league career before ultimately settling in at third base.

Braves Place Charlie Morton On 15-Day Injured List

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The Braves announced today that veteran right-hander Charlie Morton had been placed on the 15-day injured list with right index finger inflammation. Fellow righty Allan Winans was called up in the corresponding move. The move not only ends Morton’s regular season, but also means that he will likely be unable to pitch in the NLDS as well, as he won’t be eligible to be activated until after rosters are set for the series. That said, if the Braves need to make an IL move midway through the series, it’s possible that they could activate Morton as a corresponding move when replacing the hypothetical injured player.

In any case, the loss of Morton is a major blow to a Braves team that has reigned as baseball’s best club throughout most of the 2023 campaign. Slated to be the club’s Game 3 starter this postseason behind the club’s dual aces Max Fried and Spencer Strider, the 39-year-old hurler has put together a vintage season for the Braves this year with a 3.64 ERA that’s 21% better than league average by measure of ERA+ and is backed up by a solid 3.88 FIP. Morton boasts a solid 25.6% strikeout rate and has generated groundballs at a solid 43.3% clip this season.

With Morton likely out for the NLDS, the club figures to turn to right-hander Bryce Elder to take the ball behind Fried and Strider. Elder was nothing short of incredible in the first half with a 2.97 ERA in his first eighteen starts, but the young righty has struggled badly in recent months with a 5.40 ERA and a nearly matching 5.37 FIP in his last 13 appearances. Another possibility would be right-hander Kyle Wright, who posted a 3.19 ERA en route to a MLB-leading 21-win campaign last year, but the 27-year-old hurler has battled injuries and ineffectiveness throughout the year, posting a brutal 7.71 ERA across just 25 1/3 innings of work. With limited time remaining for Wright to right the ship, it seems likely Atlanta will opt to utilize Elder to round out the playoff rotation until Morton is eligible to return.

In the meantime, replacing Morton on the roster is Winans, a 27-year-old rookie who sports a 4.50 ERA and 2.76 FIP across four spot starts this season. He’ll make another start this afternoon in game one of the club’s doubleheader against the Nationals opposite right-hander Jackson Rutledge.

Braves Notes: Acuna, Morton, Ozuna

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Ronald Acuna Jr. hit his 40th home run of the season in Friday’s 9-6 Braves over the Nationals, putting the star outfielder into some elite company in MLB history.  Acuna became just the fifth player — after Jose Canseco, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, and Alfonso Soriano — to post a season of at least 40 homers and at least 40 stolen bases.  “At least” is a notable qualifier here, as Acuna also has an incredible 68 steals this year, the most of any player in the 40-40 club.  (Rodriguez previously held that mark with his 46-steal season in 1998, to go along with his 42 homers.)  As such, Acuna is the only member of the 40-50 club, the 40-60 club, and maybe the 40-70 club if he can manage two more swipes over the Braves’ final eight games of the regular season.

You need to go pretty deep into the record books to find a similarly productive blend of both hitting and basestealing prowess in a single season.  Among all players in history with a season of at least 68 steals, Acuna’s 170 wRC+ is topped only by Ty Cobb (four times, the last in the 1916 season) and John McGraw (a 178 wRC+ in 1899).  In modern times, Acuna is only the fifth player of the 21st century to hit the 68-steal threshold, with Jose Reyes’ 78 steals in 2007 sitting as the highest mark of any player in the 2000s.

Here’s the latest from Atlanta…

  • Charlie Morton started yesterday’s game but pitched only one inning due to a sprain in his right index finger.  The veteran righty will get an MRI today to further access the injury, though initial x-rays Friday were negative.  The discomfort was enough that Morton was taken out of the game for at least precautionary reasons, as the Braves obviously don’t want to take any risks with a player’s health this close to the playoffs.  “It’s literally, like, such a small piece of my body, and it could have a large impact on how I perform and if I can go, at least to a degree that I’m effective…I’m hopeful that in four or five days, I’ll feel good,” Morton told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Justin Toscano and other reporters.  Unless the MRI reveals something serious, Morton isn’t likely to be placed on the 15-day injured list, as that would make him ineligible for the start of the Braves’ NLDS matchup.  It remains to be seen how serious Morton’s finger sprain is, but it isn’t ideal for the rotation that Morton is hurting and Max Fried (also sidelined with what seems to be a relatively minor blister problem) was just placed on the 15-day IL yesterday, though the timing allows for Fried to return in time for the start of Atlanta’s first playoff series.  Morton is projected to line up as the Braves’ third starter in the postseason, behind Spencer Strider and Fried.
  • Marcell Ozuna’s terrible start to the season, his down numbers in 2021-22, and his history of off-the-field issues led to speculation that Atlanta was considering outright releasing the veteran and eating the final year-plus of his four-year, $65MM contract.  However, the team publicly expressed its confidence in Ozuna in late April, and that confidence also extended behind the scenes, as The Athletic’s David O’Brien (X link) writes that the Braves “weren’t close to cutting him” and “absolutely were not discussing” the possibility.  It proved to be a wise decision, as Ozuna has hit .293/.360/.579 with 34 homers over 494 plate appearances since May 1.  Ozuna’s 132 wRC+ is the third-highest total of his 11 Major League seasons, indicating that he has plenty left in the tank as he approaches his 33rd birthday in November.  Ozuna is set to earn $18MM in 2024, and the Braves hold a $16MM club option ($1MM buyout) on his services for the 2025 campaign.

Charlie Morton’s Continued Late-Career Success

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Shortly before the start of last offseason, the Braves checked off a key part of their winter checklist. Atlanta agreed to preemptively exercise a $20MM option on Charlie Morton at the end of September. In exchange, the veteran righty gave the club a matching option for the ’24 campaign.

It was a fairly typical move for an organization that has both been very aggressive on doling out in-season extensions and adept at securing future option years. At the same time, the decision was met with a fair bit of skepticism from a chunk of the fanbase (as evidenced by the comment section on MLBTR’s post). It was a relatively lofty salary — albeit on just a one-year commitment — for a pitcher who carried a 4.29 ERA during his age-38 campaign at the time of signing.

The Braves bet on Morton’s more impressive peripherals and sustained mid-90s velocity in projecting his ERA to improve this year. They’ve been proven right in that evaluation, as the 16-year veteran is turning in one of the better seasons of his career. Morton carries a 3.37 ERA across 141 2/3 innings over 25 starts. He’s averaging 5 2/3 frames per appearance, a bit better than last season, and is on his way to a fifth sub-4.00 showing in the seven years since his late-career breakout for the 2017 Astros.

Morton has been particularly good of late. In 10 starts dating back to the beginning of July, he owns a 2.70 ERA across 56 2/3 innings. He’s reeled off three straight scoreless outings in his last trio of appearances, fanning 25 hitters in the process. Those starts have admittedly come against the plummeting New York offenses, but it’s still a promising sign for Atlanta as they set their pitching staff for October.

On the whole, the two-time All-Star has performed as the front office had envisioned. His strikeout rate has taken a slight step back, dipping from 28.2% a season ago to 25.5% this year. That’s still a couple points above the 22.1% league mark for starting pitchers. Morton has compensated for the slight dip in punchouts with a few more grounders.

His repertoire looks as strong as it had been. Morton’s 94.9 MPH average four-seam fastball speed exactly matches last year’s mark. His curveball velocity is up a tick. He’s getting whiffs on both those offerings at a similar clip as he did in 2022. Morton’s overall swinging-strike rate is trending to land between 12% and 13% for a fifth consecutive season.

The only quibble with his performance has been spotty command. The righty has battled walks intermittently throughout his career, particularly since finding the velocity surge that has enabled his productive second act as a power pitcher. He’s walking just under 11% of opposing hitters this year, which would be his highest full-season rate since his 2008 rookie campaign. No National League pitcher has plunked more batters than Morton, who has hit 10 opponents. That’s a decent amount of free passes, but he hasn’t had any issue working around those extra baserunners thanks to his strikeouts and general lack of authoritative contact allowed.

Keeping Morton has taken on extra importance for an Atlanta team that has needed to tap into its rotation depth more than it did a year ago. The Braves had nine players log at least 10 innings out of the rotation in 2022; they’re already at 12 such arms this season. Extended absences for Max Fried and Kyle Wright have left the Braves rotating a number of players through the two spots not locked down by Spencer Strider, Morton and Bryce Elder. Fried is back and Wright is on a minor league rehab stint, so things are trending up with a month to go before the postseason, but Morton’s durability was key for Atlanta in building their essentially insurmountable NL East lead.

As the season winds down, president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his front office are faced with an identical decision on Morton as they had last summer: whether to bring him back for another season at $20MM. There’s a strong case for them doing so. If the Braves (correctly) felt Morton would live up to that sum last September, they could make a similar calculation this time around. His stuff looks the same and he’s been better at keeping runs off the board. Even with a few more walks, it’s easy to argue Morton is a comparable or better pitcher than he was at this time a year ago.

His age is a relevant factor for any contract questions. Morton turns 40 next offseason. At some point, as happens to almost every player, his performance will fall off. There’s nothing beyond the general risk of any 40-year-old pitcher to suggest Morton is nearing a cliff, though. If he decides to suit up for a 17th season, he’d enter next year again looking like a quality mid-rotation arm.

Atlanta has control over every starting pitcher on the roster. Fried and Wright are eligible for arbitration. Strider is already signed through 2028 (plus a 2029 option) under last year’s extension, while Elder and their host of younger rotation options (AJ Smith-Shawver, Jared Shuster, Dylan Dodd) are in their pre-arbitration seasons. Roster Resource projects the club’s 2024 guaranteed commitments around $133MM, roughly $70MM south of this year’s franchise-record Opening Day payroll. Exercising Morton’s option would bring them to approximately $153MM, while an arbitration class including Fried, Wright and A.J. Minter tacks on something in the $25-30MM range. Exercising Morton’s option and a $9MM option for Eddie Rosario — which could be a borderline call — would leave the Braves within $20MM of this year’s payroll entering the offseason.

Of course, they’d also virtually be retaining the entirety of what looks to be the best team in the majors. The Braves did almost nothing in free agency last winter and have excelled regardless thanks to their incredible internal core and the Sean Murphy trade acquisition (and subsequent six-year extension). The organization could be content with a similar approach during the upcoming winter.

Assuming Morton wants to continue playing, will the Braves bring him back at another $20MM price point?

(poll link for app users)

 

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Upcoming Club Option Decisions: NL East

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We’re roughly a third of the way through the 2023 season. Players have had a couple months to build something of a performance track record that’ll play a role in their future contracts. With that in mind, MLBTR will take a look over the coming days at players whose contracts contain team or mutual options to gauge the early trajectory for those upcoming decisions.

Over the past few days, we’ve looked at the NL West and NL Central. Closing out the Senior Circuit:

Atlanta Braves

The Braves and Morton have had a productive relationship for the past few years. He’s signed a series of successive one-year contracts and served as an effective mid-rotation presence. A home run spike resulted in a 4.34 ERA last season but the Braves remained confident in Morton’s still-strong velocity and strikeout and walk numbers. They’ve gotten exactly what they’ve expected from the 39-year-old. He has a 3.59 ERA with a solid 24.5% strikeout rate and is still averaging north of 95 MPH on his fastball. If Morton maintains this form for a full season and wants to continue playing, it stands to reason Atlanta would have interest in bringing him back.

Rosario re-signed on a two-year contract after his 2021 postseason heroics helped Atlanta to a title. He’s always been a streaky performer, however, and the past two seasons haven’t been effective. Rosario hit just .212/.259/.328 in 80 games last year. There was some hope a corrective eye surgery could enable a bounceback but he’s only been slightly better in 2023. Rosario carries a .239/.269/.405 line in 171 trips to the plate. The Braves could pursue left field upgrades via trade this summer and are likely to cut Rosario loose at the end of the season.

d’Arnaud has been a quality catcher for Atlanta for the past few seasons. Last year’s .268/.319/.472 showing didn’t stop the Braves from a blockbuster acquisition of Sean Murphy, who is playing at a down-ballot MVP pace through two months. That pushed d’Arnaud into a backup/designated hitter role for which he’s arguably overqualified.

A concussion has limited d’Arnaud to 17 games thus far. He’s hitting .297/.318/.406 over 66 trips to the plate. An $8MM price point is solid value if the veteran continues to perform at his recent levels. Even with Murphy entrenched as Atlanta’s franchise backstop, the Braves were comfortable keeping d’Arnaud around as a highly-priced #2 option. They could do so again in 2024 or exercise the option and look to trade him this winter, as the Brewers did with second baseman Kolten Wong last offseason.

McHugh inked a two-year free agent deal over the 2021-22 offseason. He was brilliant in year one, throwing 69 1/3 innings of 2.60 ERA ball with a 27.6% strikeout rate. He hasn’t come close to that form through this season’s first couple months. McHugh’s 3.54 ERA through 20 1/3 frames is respectable, but he’s punched out a meager 11.6% of opponents against a personal-worst 10.5% walk rate. The option price isn’t exorbitant and McHugh could yet pitch his way into it being exercised. He’ll need to miss more bats, though.

It’s a somewhat similar story with Yates. He signed a buy-low free agent deal in the middle of a Tommy John rehab during the 2021-22 offseason. Yates made a brief return late last season but hasn’t gotten an extended stretch of action until 2023. He’s missing bats on a solid 12.7% of his offerings and has an above-average 29.1% strikeout rate.

The righty’s control hasn’t come back yet, however. He’s walked 17.4% of opposing hitters and is relying on a .214 batting average on balls in play to keep his ERA at 3.26. Whether he can dial in the strike-throwing as he gets more reps probably determines if the Braves keep him around on a net $4.5MM decision.

Miami Marlins

Cueto signed an $8.5MM guarantee with Miami on the heels of a bounceback showing with the White Sox. It was an odd fit on a Marlins club with ample rotation depth and it hasn’t yet panned out. The 37-year-old got through just one inning in his season debut before suffering a biceps injury. He subsequently sprained his left ankle while on a minor league rehab stint and is on the 60-day injured list. Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald relayed on Tuesday that he’s up to 40 pitches in a bullpen session. A return probably isn’t too far off, but Cueto hasn’t made an impact thus far.

Miami acquired Barnes from the Red Sox in a change-of-scenery swap for Richard Bleier at the end of January. He’s off to a fine but not overwhelming start in his new environs. Over 21 innings, the righty reliever has a 3.43 ERA with near-average strikeout and walk numbers. His average fastball velocity is at a career-low 93.3 MPH, though, and he’s only getting swinging strikes at an 8% clip. Barnes looks more like a competent middle reliever than an All-Star closer at this stage of his career. The $5.75MM gap between the option value and the buyout price will probably prove a little too much for the Marlins.

New York Mets

Canha had a productive first season in Queens after signing a two-year free agent deal. He hit .266/.367/.403 over 542 plate appearances last year. He’s been off to a slower start in 2023, posting a .242/.324/.386 line with four homers — a league average performance by measure of wRC+. Canha picked things up in May after a tough April and still holds an everyday corner outfield role, although he’s increasingly hitting at the bottom of the lineup.

The $9.5MM gap between the option value and the buyout isn’t a huge price to pay for a solid everyday outfielder. That’s especially true for the Mets. This one remains to be determined based on Canha’s summer performance.

Escobar was another two-year signee just prior to the lockout. He was coming off a 28-homer showing in 2021 and has some defensive flexibility. Escobar has hit at a roughly league average level as a Met, showing his typical blend of above-average power with low walk totals. That includes a .244/.289/.433 showing over 98 plate appearances this year.

Brett Baty has taken over the primary third base job, pushing Escobar into a depth role off the bench. He’s a solid utility option and by all accounts a beloved clubhouse presence but the net $8.5MM call is likely pricey for a player in that kind of role.

Acquired from the Rays over the offseason, Raley has been a solid situational bullpen arm in Queens. He owns a 2.95 ERA over 18 1/3 innings with better than average strikeout and walk numbers (25.6% and 7.7%, respectively). Raley doesn’t throw especially hard but he misses bats at a league average clip. He’s been hit around by left-handed hitters in a small sample this year but kept them to a .155/.200/.282 line in 76 plate appearances in 2022. The $4.25MM call is a reasonable price point for an effective middle innings arm. If Raley keeps up this pace, there’s a decent chance the Mets bring him back.

Note: Víctor Robles and Jon Berti each signed arbitration contracts that contained 2024 club options. They’d remain eligible for arbitration next season even if the options are declined and have accordingly been excluded from this list.

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