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Astros Notes: Bregman, Álvarez, Greinke, Javier

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The Houston Astros will enter 2021 more vulnerable than ever atop the American League West. And yet, they remain atop the division. Or do they? Yesterday, our own Mark Polishuk asked MLBTR readers to predict the division winner, and so far, the Astros have fallen from their perch. Readers are currently projecting the A’s to win the division – though the Astros aren’t far behind.

Astros’ fever may spike as their stars return to health. Alex Bregman and Yordan Álvarez will both make their Grapefruit League debut on Tuesday, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (via Twitter), which should provide a lift for manager Dusty Baker and company. Álvarez will be closely monitored for most of the season after offseason knee surgery. He’ll be limited to designated hitter duties in 2021. His bat, of course, can be a real difference maker. The 23-year-old owns an absurd .343 ISO though 378 plate appearances.

Bregman’s return to the lineup is no less crucial. Though he was the last arriving of the Astros’ original position player core, he’s grown into the best performer of the bunch. Back-to-back MVP-consideration seasons have launched Bregman into the first tier of MLB superstar. Especially with a roster that’s thinner that in year’s past, the Astros will need Bregman to ramp up to regular season form quickly.

When the season does open, it will be Zack Greinke on the hill. To no one’s surprise, Baker named Greinke their opening day starter, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter). Though he was a rotation luxury behind Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander when he was acquired, Greinke has grown in importance over the past year and a half, not only on the hill, but in the clubhouse and in front of reporters as well. The veteran has a 3.54 ERA/3.02 FIP in 129 2/3 innings over two seasons since joining the Astros.

Elsewhere in the rotation, the Astros are already without Framber Valdez, and his replacement Jake Odorizzi won’t be ready by opening day. Cristian Javier, however, say he will be ready to go, per Sports Director at Fox 26 Mark Berman (via Twitter).

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The AL West?

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George Springer, Marcus Semien, Liam Hendriks, Lance Lynn….it seemed that for much of the offseason, the news out of the AL West focused on what stars were leaving the division, rather than joining.  It has made for an intriguing divisional race as we approach Opening Day, so let’s run down the contenders as per Fangraphs’ projected standings.

The Astros are judged to be the best of the bunch, projected for an 89-73 record despite losing Springer, potentially losing other still-unsigned free agents (i.e. Josh Reddick, Roberto Osuna), and losing Justin Verlander last season to Tommy John surgery.  On the plus side, the Astros brought a couple of key offensive players back into the mix by re-signing Michael Brantley and Yuli Gurriel, and they added Jake Odorizzi to a bolster an injury-hampered rotation.  There are certainly some question marks on Houston’s roster, but the core group of talent might be enough to capture the division.

Clocking in with an 84-78 projection, matching this record would give the Angels their fourth-highest win total since 2012 — Mike Trout’s first full season in the big leagues.  The Halos’ inability to build a winner around their superstar has been a sore point for both Orange County fans and perhaps the baseball world at large, but comparatively speaking, the Angels also didn’t suffer as many major personnel losses this winter as their division rivals did.  While the Angels didn’t make any blockbuster acquisitions, they did aim to get better, adding such second-tier veterans as Raisel Iglesias, Jose Quintana, Alex Cobb, Jose Iglesias, Dexter Fowler, and Kurt Suzuki.  With Trout and Anthony Rendon anchoring the lineup and Shohei Ohtani perhaps healthy again, do the Angels have enough to finally get back to the postseason?

The reigning AL West champion Athletics are projected for a modest 83-79 mark, as Oakland lost some significant veteran talent in Semien, Hendriks, Robbie Grossman, Joakim Soria, and Tommy La Stella.  Of course, the A’s have made a habit of overachieving in the Billy Beane era, and they do have a lot of promising young arms.  If the pitching staff can healthy and even a couple of hurlers make the proverbial leap, the A’s might have one of the sport’s better rotations.  On the offensive side, Oakland is hoping Elvis Andrus thrives with a change of scenery, and that Matt Chapman and Matt Olson hit a bit more like their usual selves.

If the three front-runners all have their weak spots, is there an opportunity for an underdog to emerge?  Fangraphs doesn’t thinks so, as both the Mariners (74-88) and Rangers (72-90) are projected to fall well back of the pack, yet it isn’t as if either team is bereft of talent.  Seattle has a lot of promising young players that could possibly break out early and help Marco Gonzales, Kyle Seager, and bounce-back candidate James Paxton steal some wins.  The Rangers made some interesting additions in Dane Dunning, Nate Lowe, and David Dahl, plus you figure Texas is due for some better offensive luck considering virtually the entire team (even star Joey Gallo) had down years at the plate in 2020.

So, the question remains, who will end up as AL West champions?  (Poll link for app users)

Odorizzi, Javier May Not Be Ready By Opening Day

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  • Chander Rome of the Houston Chronicle wonders if Aledmys Díaz might make some sense as a trade candidate for the Astros. The utility man is set to make $3MM this year, and the Astros would love to trim a little off the top of their payroll. Díaz has slashed .265/.337/.470 in 306 plate appearances the past two seasons as one of the first guys off the bench. Robel Garcia and Abraham Toro are competing for the second utility guy off the bench, and it certainly makes some sense to consider a Díaz trade if there’s one to be had. That said, Diaz is the best fit as a backup at shortstop, and Carlos Correa hasn’t exactly been an iron man. The Astros could also try to move Brooks Raley ($2MM), Joe Smith ($4MM) or Martin Maldonado ($3.5MM) as a way to trim the payroll, though the latter isn’t particularly likely.
  • Elsewhere on the Astros’ roster, they’re going to need to utilize their pitching depth from the jump. Recently-signed Jake Odorizzi isn’t likely to be ready for opening day, neither is Pedro Baez, currently on the COVID-19 injured list. Cristian Javier is also a bit of a question mark, not having pitched in a game since March 2, writes MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., and Jose Urquidy remain at the top of the rotation, but the final two spots may be up for grabs. If Javier and Odorizzi aren’t ready for opening day, Luis García and Bryan Abreu are back in camp and ready to audition.

Offseason In Review: Houston Astros

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Despite finishing under .500 during the regular season, the Astros made their fourth straight trip to the American League Championship Series in 2020. The Rays denied them a World Series berth, though, and the Astros have since lost one of their longtime stars to free agency.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The biggest question the Astros faced entering the offseason was whether they would be able to re-sign outfielder George Springer, a three-time All-Star who was hugely instrumental in the team’s recent success. The Astros made Springer an $18.9MM qualifying offer, which he summarily rejected, and it doesn’t seem they put forth much of an effort to retain him after that. In the end, Springer exited Houston for another AL team – Toronto – for a six-year, $150MM payday.

Springer wasn’t the only noteworthy Astros outfielder who hit the market, as Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick joined him in seeking new contracts. Reddick remains a free agent, but the Astros did keep Brantley on a two-year, $32MM pact after deciding against issuing him a qualifying offer. It’s a reasonable deal when considering what Brantley brings to the table at the plate, though it’s not unwarranted to be concerned about his age (34 in May) and ability to play left field on an everyday basis. Brantley spent a large portion of last season as the Astros’ designated hitter as Yordan Alvarez battled knee problems, but that role won’t be available much this year if Alvarez’s health holds up. Assuming Alvarez is the regular DH, that would leave Brantley and Kyle Tucker as Houston’s corner outfielders.

With Springer out the door, the Astros did show offseason interest in other outfielders – Andrew Benintendi via trade, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Yasiel Puig in free agency – but didn’t come away with any outside additions on guaranteed contracts. As a result, they’re primed to start the season with the mostly unproven duo of Myles Straw and Chas McCormick as their top two center fielders. Straw’s a speedster and an adept defender, though he has almost no power and is coming off a brutal 2020 as a hitter. McCormick, meanwhile, has never played in the majors, but he does rank as Baseball America’s No. 12 Astros prospect.

One of the reasons the Astros are in position to gamble on untested center fielders is the overall strength of their offense. Brantley, Alvarez and Tucker can flat-out hit. The same has typically been true of second baseman Jose Altuve and shortstop Carlos Correa, even though both players endured down years in 2020. Third baseman Alex Bregman also wasn’t quite himself last season, but he remains one of the premier players in the game at his position.

That group should lead an above-average attack this year, but the rest of Houston’s offense isn’t quite as imposing. The team brought back a former longtime Astro in Jason Castro to team with Martin Maldonado at catcher. While those two probably aren’t going to combine for great offensive production, they’re well-regarded defenders who should make life easier on the Astros’ pitching staff.

First baseman Yuli Gurriel had a career year in 2019 before his output plummeted a season ago, yet the Astros still gave him a new one-year, $7MM contract in September. Such contract extensions so close to a player’s free agency are surprising, and from Houston’s perspective, the Gurriel deal continues to look like somewhat of a curious move. However, in fairness to the Astros, this past winter’s crop of free-agent first basemen was rather weak, leading them to keep around a familiar face on an affordable contract.

On the pitching front, the Astros will have to go a second consecutive season without ace Justin Verlander, who underwent Tommy John surgery in the fall. But even without Verlander last year, the Astros’ rotation – which consisted primarily of Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy – still held up well. Most of that group is back this year, but unfortunately, Houston may have to go without Valdez for most or all of the season. Valdez enjoyed a breakout 2020, though he’s now dealing with a broken ring finger that will shelve him for the foreseeable future.

The Astros’ starting depth took yet another hit with the loss of high-end prospect Forrest Whitley, who will undergo TJ surgery and won’t pitch this year. The club did, however, help cover its bases earlier this month when it signed accomplished right-hander Jake Odorizzi, who will slot in along with Greinke, McCullers, Javier and Urquidy to open the season. Odorizzi’s two-year, $23MM pact includes a $6.5MM player option for 2023, which the Astros included in an effort to lower their luxury-tax commitment this season.

In light of the Odorizzi acquisition, there’s little wiggle room under the $210MM threshold for the Astros, who Jason Martinez of Roster Resource projects are between $208MM and $209MM right now. Because of that, veteran minor league pickups Steve Cishek and Steven Souza Jr. – whose contracts include $2.25MM and $1.15MM MLB salaries, respectively – are less likely to earn roster spots with the club.

Cishek was one of a few relievers the Astros brought in after their bullpen notched mediocre numbers last season. They showed interest in some big fish in free agency (e.g., Liam Hendriks, Brad Hand, Alex Colome and Joakim Soria), ultimately coming away with former Dodger Pedro Baez and ex-Ray Ryne Stanek. Baez has always prevented runs at a good clip, though he was more expensive than expected (two years, $12.5MM) after an injury-shortened year in which his average fastball velocity and strikeouts dropped to career-low levels. The 33-year-old is currently on the COVID-19 list, so it’s unclear whether he will be ready for the start of the season.

General manager James Click took a low-risk chance on Stanek, whom he’s familiar with from their time with the Rays. Click was part of the front office that used a first-round pick on Stanek in 2013, and the flamethrowing righty had a solid two-year stretch with the Rays from 2018-19 before Tampa traded him to the Marlins in the latter of those years. Unfortunately for Stanek, the 2020 season couldn’t have gone much worse, as he yielded eight runs and walked eight batters in just 10 innings.

Stanek is one of several Astros who could reach free agency next offseason, but he’s at the lower end of the totem pole in comparison to Correa, Verlander, Greinke and McCullers. Verlander is hardly in prime position for an extension, and there hasn’t been much buzz about Greinke, but Correa and McCullers have made it known they’d prefer to stay in Houston. Click has interest in keeping the pair, but if no extensions are in place by Opening Day, negotiations (if any are taking place) could cease until the end of the season. Correa’s on track to be part of the elite class of free agents who could approach a $300MM-plus guarantee, so the Astros will have their hands full in trying to keep him from hitting the market. McCullers won’t be nearly that expensive, but he’s just 27 years old at the moment and could command a lucrative multiyear payday.

Regardless of whether the Astros reach extensions with any in-house talent before the season, and even in spite of Springer’s exit, their roster once again looks strong enough to contend in the AL West this year. The Athletics won the division last year, but their roster doesn’t appear to be as strong as it was then. The Angels have made some improvements, but their offseason didn’t feature any enormous splashes, and it’s easy to be skeptical of a franchise mired in a six-year playoff drought. The other teams in the West – the Mariners and Rangers – will have difficulty getting to the .500 mark.

How would you grade the Astros’ offseason? (Poll link for app users)

Correa: Extension Talks Have Yet To Begin

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Astros shortstop Carlos Correa projects as one of the top free agents on next year’s market, though both he and the team have made clear that they hope to hammer out an extension before he reaches the market. Correa told reporters today that those talks have yet to begin, noting that the finger injury to Framber Valdez and the front office’s subsequent negotiations with free agents may have delayed the beginning of talks (Twitter link, with video, via Mark Berman of FOX 26). Correa was understanding of that and remains motivated to talk contract, though as is often the case with extension candidates, he placed a firm Opening Day deadline on any talks for a new deal. Houston GM James Click said in late February that the Astros “want to have some conversations” with Correa’s camp to see if the two sides can align on a deal to keep him long term.

Astros fans may also be interested to hear skipper Dusty Baker talk of Correa as a potential leadoff candidate in 2021. Correa hit leadoff today and told reporters he’s excited for the possibility of taking on that challenge (video link via Berman). Leadoff duties have traditionally been George Springer’s department in Houston, of course, but his departure creates a vacancy atop the lineup.

Jason Castro Strains Oblique

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Jason Castro has a strained oblique, Astros manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). The injury has kept the veteran backstop out of Grapefruit League action since last Tuesday, but Castro did return to practice today, per the Houston skipper. There’s no indication at this point that the issue threatens his availability for Opening Day. Castro reunited with his original organization on a one-year deal in January. Martín Maldonado and Garrett Stubbs are the other catchers on the Astros’ 40-man roster.

Astros’ Forrest Whitley To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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MARCH 10: Manager Dusty Baker announced Wednesday that Whitley will undergo Tommy John surgery, per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. He’ll miss the entire season as a result.

MARCH 7: Astros pitching prospect Forrest Whitley has been advised to undergo Tommy John surgery, according to Mark Berman of KRIV Fox 26 (Twitter link).  Whitley has been battling arm soreness that has now been diagnosed as a right UCL sprain, the team told Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link) and other reporters.  No decision has yet been made about Whitley’s next step, as the right-hander is seeking a second opinion.

A 14-15 month layoff for TJ rehab would be the biggest setback yet in a career that has been hampered by injuries.  Whitley also had an forearm problem last season that led to an early shutdown at the Astros’ alternate training site, and he has been sidelined with shoulder and oblique injuries in past years.  Beyond just health woes, Whitley was also issued a 50-game drug suspension in 2018.

Despite all of these issues, Whitley’s potential is still so highly regarded that he has continued to remain a fixture on top-100 prospect lists over the last four years.  Selected with the 17th overall pick of the 2016 draft, Whitley is still only 23 years old, as the Astros took the San Antonio native as a high schooler.  Between the injuries and the suspension, however, Whitley has thrown only 197 innings as a professional from 2016-19, and just 24 1/3 frames at the Triple-A level.  That brief stint at Triple-Round Rock didn’t pan out, as Whitley was torched for a 12.21 ERA with nine home runs allowed.

In the short term, the Astros were hoping Whitley would rebound from his lost season and look good enough to receive consideration for a MLB promotion at some point in 2021.  Over the longer term, Whitley was seen as a bridge to the next generation of the Houston rotation, as Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, and Lance McCullers Jr. can all be free agents after the season (and Verlander will already miss all of 2021 due to his own Tommy John procedure).  Framber Valdez’s season may also be in question thanks to a broken finger, which is why the Astros added some veteran stability through at least the 2022 campaign by signing Jake Odorizzi yesterday.

Astros Sign Jake Odorizzi

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The Astros have added the top player remaining in free agency, announcing an agreement with righty Jake Odorizzi. The deal is a two-year pact with a player option for the 2023 season. Odorizzi is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Odorizzi is guaranteed $23.5MM. That takes the form of a $6MM signing bonus, a $6MM salary in 2021, a $5MM salary in 2022, and a $6.5MM player option for 2023. The option comes with a $3.25MM buyout. Performance escalators can max the option out at $12.5MM while also bringing the potential buyout figure up to $6.25MM. Combining to make 30 appearances from 2021-22 will bring Odorizzi to just shy of $24MM over those two seasons in salary, while incentives could push the deal up to $30MM.

On top of the $5MM base salary for the 2022 season, Odorizzi would make $500K for reaching 100 innings pitched, $1MM apiece for throwing 110, 120, 130, 140, and 150 innings, with another $1.25MM if he reaches the 160 inning mark. The deal also contains some deferred money.

The addition of the player option is an obvious method of spreading out the contract’s luxury tax hit, similar to the Yankees’ recent agreements with Brett Gardner and Darren O’Day. With just a $3.25MM difference between the value of the option and the buyout, it’s highly unlikely Odorizzi exercises it two years from now. However, the player option pushes the contract’s guaranteed money out to three years, while still giving Odorizzi the chance to re-test free agency after 2022. That lowers the deal’s average annual value (which determines the luxury tax calculation) to a modest $7.83MM. Altogether, that brings the Astros’ CBT ledger for 2021 to around $203.6MM, per Cot’s Contracts. That keeps them barely below the $210MM tax threshold, albeit without leaving much room to make in-season additions without cutting payroll elsewhere on the roster if they’re adamant about not going over.

Moreso than paying additional dollars, the Astros’ bigger concern about the luxury tax may be more related to the draft-pick compensation penalties attached to teams that go over the CBT, as the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently noted.  With McCullers, Carlos Correa, and possibly Justin Verlander all in line to receive qualifying offers next winter, the Astros may be planning to reload their farm system with extra compensatory picks should these players all reject a QO and sign elsewhere.  Houston would also have to surrender a higher amount of draft and international signing bonus capital for signing a free agent who rejected a QO from another club.

Reports surfaced last week about Houston’s interest in Odorizzi, which seemed natural considering that Framber Valdez is in danger of missing the entire 2021 season after suffering a fractured ring finger on his throwing hand.  While nothing has been decided about Valdez’s status just yet, Odorizzi’s addition will help reinforce an Astros rotation that also includes Zack Greinke, Jose Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr., and Cristian Javier.  More inexperienced options like Luis Garcia and Brandon Bielak will now project as Triple-A depth rather than be called upon to immediately contribute at the big league level.

Jake OdorizziOdorizzi doesn’t quite fit the Astros’ usual model of pitching acquisition, as he lacks the big spin rates that Houston has often favored in recent years.  It could be that the need to replace Valdez put Odorizzi on the team’s radar, and Astros GM James Click is quite familiar with Odorizzi from their time together in the Rays organization.  Houston will be gaining a veteran arm who has a track record of eating innings, though Odorizzi did pitch only 13 2/3 frames with the Twins in 2020 due to a series of minor injuries.

Blister problems, a ribcage strain, and being struck in the chest by a line drive resulted in three separate injured list stints for Odorizzi, bringing a sour end to what had been a pretty successful tenure in Minnesota.  Odorizzi posted a 4.01 ERA and an above-average 24.83K% over 323 1/3 innings in 2018-19, and chose to return to the Twin Cities in 2020 after accepting the team’s $17.8MM qualifying offer.

This decision to bet on himself didn’t entirely work out, as a more typical Odorizzi season in 2020 would have likely resulted in a longer and more lucrative free agent deal for the hurler (who turns 31 later this month).  With Odorizzi having control over his fate for the 2023 season, he ended up technically receiving the three-year contract he hoped to receive for much of the winter, though it took him almost a week into March to finally land the contract.

MLBTR ranked Odorizzi 11th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, projecting him for a three-year, $39MM deal.  The Twins, Giants, Angels, Red Sox, Cardinals, Mets, Phillies, and Blue Jays were among the many teams who had some level of interest in Odorizzi over the course of the offseason, with clubs joining and departing the hunt depending on other transactions.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan initially reported the sides had an agreement on a two-year contract with a 2023 player option. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com was first with the contract structure. Odorizzi’s former teammate, Trevor Plouffe, provided a breakdown of the incentive structure for the 2022 season. Jon Heyman of MLB Network was first to note the deferrals.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Astros Place Pedro Baez On Injured List

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  • The Astros have placed Pedro Báez on the injured list, per a team announcement. The move clears space on the 40-man roster for Jake Odorizzi, whose signing has been made official. While the club didn’t give a reason for Báez’s IL placement, it’s almost certainly related to COVID-19. The veteran reliever was one of eight Houston pitchers to leave the team last weekend as part of the league’s health and safety protocols. It isn’t clear if Báez was one of the players to have tested positive for the coronavirus; players can also be placed on the COVID IL for exhibiting symptoms or for exposure.

Latest On Alex Bregman

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  • Alex Bregman has been nursing a balky lefty hamstring in camp, and the Astros star tells MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters that the injury first occurred in early January.  After being careful throughout the offseason and during Spring Training, Bregman felt his hamstring was around 90 percent healed and he is planning to soon get some games under his belt in preparation for Opening Day.  Bregman also noted that he has been “trying to clean up running form…whether it’s posture or working on my hips and stuff like that” to avoid more hamstring injuries in the future, as he missed over two weeks last season due to a right hamstring strain.
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