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Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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After a few years of near-misses, the Astros returned to the top of the league in 2022 by claiming their second title in franchise history. They’ve won 100-plus games in four of the last five full seasons and will be one of the top handful of championship favorites next season. Expectations are high as ever in Houston, but months of tension in the front office culminated in a change atop baseball operations just days after their parade. The Astros are suddenly one of the league’s more unpredictable teams going into the offseason — but there’s no question any moves are going to be geared towards maximizing their chances of a repeat.

Guaranteed Contracts

Other commitments: $2MM buyout on Pedro Báez option, $1MM buyout on Will Smith option, $250K buyout on Trey Mancini option

Total future commitments: $373.75MM
Total 2023 commitments: $121.25MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis, projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tendered: Josh James

Total arbitration projection: $27.1MM

Free Agents

For a remarkable sixth straight season, the Astros advanced to the AL Championship Series in 2022. The past four years had seen the season end on a disappointing note, with a defeat in either the ALCS or the World Series. That wasn’t to be this year, as the 106-win team swept the Yankees to secure the fifth pennant in franchise history. They finished the job with three straight wins after going down 2-1 against the Phillies, claiming the organization’s second World Series title.

With that kind of success, one would assume the good vibes would continue into the offseason. Towards the end of the year, however, reports emerged about tension behind the scenes — primarily between owner Jim Crane and general manager James Click. As Houston’s lead baseball executive saw his contract expire, the Astros entered the offseason with uncertainty about their long-term direction. Things came to a head when Crane offered Click a one-year contract extension — a proposal below the norm for an executive whose team had accomplished what the Astros have over the past three seasons. Click declined, and the Astros let him go thereafter.

For the first time in three-quarters of a century, the defending World Series winners parted with their baseball operations leader. Houston enters the offseason without a GM, and it doesn’t seem as if they’re in any rush to fill the vacancy. Crane told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com last week he doesn’t envision hiring a new GM until after the calendar flips to 2023. In the meantime, the atypical front office structure sees Crane intricately involved in baseball decision-making. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported Crane personally oversaw the team’s first major offseason roster move — re-signing free agent reliever Rafael Montero on a three-year, $34.5MM deal that fairly easily surpassed expectations. Assistant GM’s Bill Firkus, Andrew Ball and Charles Cook are on hand to help shoulder day-to-day responsibilities.

There’s not a ton of clarity about how exactly things are playing out in the offices at Minute Maid Park, but it seems Crane is as or more involved in key decisions than any of his ownership peers. That’s not entirely new — he directly negotiated a contract with Justin Verlander last offseason and reportedly killed a deadline agreement to bring in Willson Contreras from the Cubs — but it makes Houston one of the more fascinating teams to watch.

Crane and his front office have plenty of decisions to make with a handful of key free agents. They’re already brought back Montero, but perhaps the biggest question is the same one they faced last winter: do they retain Verlander? They did so last year, but the circumstances are far different this time around. Last year, the future Hall of Famer was coming off nearly two full seasons lost to Tommy John surgery. They monitored his progress and guaranteed him $25MM on a bounceback, but they’d have to offer up quite a bit more to keep him in 2023 and beyond. Verlander responded to Houston’s gesture of faith with a Cy Young-winning campaign that saw him lead the majors with a 1.75 ERA through 175 innings.

Now, Verlander’s looking at multi-year offers that easily beat $25MM annually. Crane suggested to McTaggart that Verlander is seeking a pact rivaling or topping the three-year, $130MM deal secured by Max Scherzer last winter. Those comments could get the team in some hot water with the MLB Players Association — the CBA prohibits club personnel from airing a free agent’s asking price while speaking with the media — but it’s not an especially surprising revelation. Scherzer is the closest comparable for a recent aging, future Hall of Fame pitcher still working near the top of his game, although Scherzer was more than two years younger during his free agent trip than Verlander is now.

Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle has already reported the Astros are reluctant to go to three guaranteed years as a result. That raises the real possibility of the nine-time All-Star heading elsewhere after four-plus seasons in Houston. Needless to say, losing a pitcher of Verlander’s caliber would weaken the roster, although the Astros are as well-equipped as a team could be to withstand his potential departure.

The rotation still runs six deep among promising options under club control. Framber Valdez finished fifth in Cy Young balloting this past season and is capable of fronting a staff. Cristian Javier struck out a third of his opponents en route to a 2.54 ERA through 148 2/3 innings. He’s perhaps not yet a household name nationally, but his performance through his first three big league campaigns has bordered on elite. Lance McCullers Jr. is an upper mid-rotation caliber starter when healthy, and he’s only headed into the second season of a five-year extension.

That’s still a strong top three, while Houston has a handful of options at the back end. Luis Garcia has a 3.60 ERA across 312 2/3 innings the last two years. He hit a rough patch midseason but righted the ship during the final few weeks and has a strong multi-year track record. José Urquidy — who would’ve gone to the Cubs had the Contreras trade been approved — is the favorite for the #5 job. He doesn’t have eye-popping velocity or whiff rates, but he’s an excellent control artist who hasn’t posted an ERA above 4.00 in any of his four MLB seasons. Urquidy is the least exciting of the group, but he’s a rock-solid 4th/5th starter for a contender.

Dealing either of Garcia or Urquidy this offseason could be on the table. The front office showed a willingness to move from their rotation surplus to address other areas of the roster in the Urquidy – Contreras tentative agreement at the deadline. Crane killed the deal, but that was reportedly more a reflection of the team’s preference not to unseat Martín Maldonado behind the dish than it was a declaration Urquidy was unavailable. Urquidy still has three seasons of arbitration control remaining and is projected for a modest $3.2MM salary in 2023; Garcia, who’s yet to reach arbitration and controllable for four years, would have very strong trade appeal if Houston fielded offers.

Of course, the team would have less rotation depth heading into 2023 if Verlander did sign elsewhere. That could point towards an increased desire to stockpile in-house pitching, but Houston also could try to expand the role for their top prospect. Hunter Brown reached the big leagues the final month of this year. He started just two of his first seven outings, but it stands to reason the team would prefer to give him a long-term shot in the starting staff. Brown was dominant in his early big league look, allowing just two runs with a 22:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 20 1/3 innings.

No team can count on their same five starters all season, and perhaps the Astros are content to begin with Brown in the bullpen before stretching him out as a starter when injuries inevitably dictate turning to a depth option. Players like J.P. France and Brandon Bielak are on hand as additional depth, and Houston could turn to a lower-cost free agent swingman in the Trevor Williams or Chad Kuhl mold if they wind up dealing one of their starters.

Trading a starter would only be as a means of adding immediate help somewhere on the roster with more uncertainty. A few of those stand out, largely because of possible free agent defections. The Astros are going to have to bring in a first baseman via free agency or trade. Yuli Gurriel and Trey Mancini are each free agents and didn’t play all that well in 2022 regardless. Houston was linked to Anthony Rizzo before he re-signed with the Yankees, and they’re a viable fit for any of Josh Bell, José Abreu, Luke Voit or even a lower-cost Gurriel reunion. On the trade market, players like Rhys Hoskins or Rowdy Tellez could be available.

The rest of the infield is already in place, with José Altuve, Jeremy Peña and Alex Bregman locked in around the diamond. Altuve and Bregman still have multiple seasons remaining on contract extensions, while Peña has five seasons of club control following a fantastic rookie year. Aledmys Díaz is headed to free agency, but the respective presences of Mauricio Dubón and David Hensley should allow him to seamlessly replace him in a utility role. The outfield is a little less settled, with left field the primary area of concern with Michael Brantley heading to free agency.

Yordan Alvarez split his time between designated hitter and left field this past season. The superstar slugger will be in the lineup every day in some capacity, though where is to be determined by the club’s offseason moves. Click had told Rome shortly after the season ended the club considered Alvarez a possible everyday left fielder; it remains to be seen whether a Crane-led front office feels the same way. There are a handful of decent mid-tier corner outfielders who should be available in either free agency or trade. Mitch Haniger, Andrew Benintendi and Jurickson Profar are on the open market, while players like Jesse Winker, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. or Alex Verdugo could find themselves on the move via trade.

If the Astros are content with Alvarez playing left field, that’d open up the possibility for a more impactful offensive splash via the DH. Houston has again been linked to Contreras — now a free agent, albeit one who’d cost a signing team a draft choice after turning down a qualifying offer — at the start of this winter. Signing Contreras is likely to require the kind of four-plus year commitment the Astros have been reluctant to make under Crane, but he’d add to an already elite lineup and have the ability to rotate between DH and catcher.

Houston has inquired about possible impact center fielders in recent years, even as Chas McCormick has done well when given opportunities. The 27-year-old had a great postseason on both sides of the ball and should have the inside track on the center field job, but Houston could at least kick the tires on potential upgrades there as well. Bryan Reynolds has been a longtime trade target for a number of teams but still seems unlikely to leave Pittsburgh. The Diamondbacks have a few young center field-capable outfielders and could have interest in Houston’s rotation depth in a deal involving Alek Thomas or Jake McCarthy. Brandon Nimmo is the only free agent center fielder (aside from Aaron Judge) who’s clearly better than McCormick; Houston will probably check in but seems an unlikely fit for a nine-figure investment in center field. There’s no need for any changes in the final outfield spot, with Kyle Tucker controllable for three more seasons in right.

Maldonado is back at catcher for another season after vesting a $4.5MM option in his contract. He’s a non-factor offensively, but he’s beloved in the Houston clubhouse for his leadership skills. They’ll need a complement to him with Christian Vázquez and Jason Castro both hitting free agency, although well-regarded prospect Yainer Díaz has a bat-first skillset that makes for an interesting complement. The Astros will probably at least dip into the market for a veteran depth player, and their reported interest in Contreras hints at the potential for a bigger splash to split time at catcher and DH.

The only other area of even moderate concern is in the bullpen. Houston had a top three relief corps in 2022, and bringing back Montero to join Héctor Neris, Ryne Stanek and Bryan Abreu in bridging the gap to All-Star closer Ryan Pressly does a lot of the heavy lifting. Houston’s very thin from the left side, though, with Blake Taylor and Parker Mushinski representing their top options. Will Smith performed well after being acquired from the Braves in a deadline swap for Jake Odorizzi. The Astros bought out a $13MM option that always looked a bit hefty, but a reunion on a lower salary could be plausible. Andrew Chafin, Taylor Rogers, Matt Moore and Joely Rodríguez are among the other free agent options who could be of interest.

There are a few ways the offseason could go, and the Astros should have the financial ability to build upon their already great roster. The club’s current 2023 payroll estimate is a bit above $160MM, around $15MM shy of this year’s Opening Day mark and almost $27MM below the franchise-record level, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Their luxury tax figure is in the $179MM range, according to Roster Resource, $54MM shy of the $233MM base tax threshold. Houston’s farm system has thinned out — both because of years of picking towards the back of the first round and draft pick forfeiture as punishment for the 2017 sign-stealing scheme. That could lead to a preference for free agency over the trade market, but the interest in a qualified free agent like Contreras suggests they’re not opposed to continue surrendering future value as they look to cement themselves as a true dynasty. Coming off the revenue bump associated with a World Series, Crane will surely be aggressive in attacking the roster’s weakest points in some capacity.

In so doing, he’ll provide insight into how he prefers to build a roster. Reports have suggested Crane took issue with Click’s patience, with the owner favoring more bold strikes. How that manifests itself in the coming months will be fascinating, but no matter the club’s ultimate offseason path, one thing is certain. The Astros have one of the sport’s best rosters and will go into 2023 as one of the favorites for another championship.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held an Astros-centric chat on 11-23-22. Click here to view the transcript.

Astros, Dixon Machado Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Astros have agreed to a minor league deal with infielder Dixon Machado and invited him to Major League Spring Training, per a team announcement.

A longtime Tigers farmhand, the now 30-year-old Machado saw Major League time in parts of four seasons with Detroit, hitting a combined .227/.285/.295 in 505 trips to the plate from 2015-18. Lack of MLB success notwithstanding, Machado has a solid track record in the upper minors and, after a nice showing with the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate in 2019, signed with the Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization in 2020.

Machado spent two years in the KBO, both with the Giants, and batted a combined .280/.359/.393 in 277 games there. That showing netted him a minor league pact to return to the Cubs, who flipped him to the Giants in a depth swap prior to the trade deadline. Machado went 3-for-15 in five big league games with San Francisco before being cut from the 40-man roster and heading back to Triple-A. Between the Cubs and Giants, Machado appeared in 121 Triple-A games and hit .291/.372/.391.

All told, Machado has logged parts of five seasons in Triple-A, batting .267/.347/.373 in 2222 plate appearances at the top minor league level. He’s a versatile infield defender with experience at all four positions, albeit just 43 innings at first base. The vast majority of Machado’s professional work has come at shortstop, where he’s logged more than 11,000 innings and drew positive reviews from scouting reports dating back to his prospect days.

The addition of Machado is generally a depth signing for the Astros, though with Aledmys Diaz reaching free agency this winter, the door for Machado to make the team and seize a utility role is perhaps a bit more open than it would’ve been in offseasons past. Mauricio Dubon and David Hensley are both on the 40-man roster and both give the ’Stros a potential utility infielder for 2023, though Hensley has minimal Major League experience.

Astros Eyeing Left-Handed Hitting Corner Outfielders

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The Astros have already crossed one item off their to-do list this winter, re-signing setup man Rafael Montero to a three-year pact. They reportedly had strong interest in first baseman Anthony Rizzo before he re-signed with the Yankees, and while they still have a hole at first base, they’re also in the market for a left-handed-hitting corner outfielder, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

Outfield help is a natural target for the Astros, who saw Michael Brantley go down with a season-ending shoulder injury this summer (which ultimately required surgery). He’s now a free agent, leaving the Astros’ projected outfield mix consisting of right fielder Kyle Tucker, center field options Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers, and designated hitter/occasional left fielder Yordan Alvarez.

The 25-year-old Alvarez did log a career-high 467 innings in left field this season, and if the team were to commit to playing him more regularly there, the search could expand to include lefty-swinging corner outfielders and designated hitters. That said, Alvarez has had multiple knee surgeries in the past, despite his youth, so it’s sensible enough if the team prefers to limit his time on the field to help keep his bat in the lineup.

Brantley himself would ostensibly be an option, of course. He said late in the season that he expects to be ready for Spring Training, and if that’s the case, there aren’t many better bets in the “professional hitter” category than the five-time All-Star. Over the past five seasons, Brantley has batted a combined .307/.367/.465 with 57 home runs, 134 doubles and eight triples in 2240 plate appearances. He’s fanned in just 10.6% of those trips to the plate and walked at an eight percent clip as well.

Generally speaking, it’s not a great free-agent market for outfielders this winter. Aaron Judge, of course, is the top free agent, while center fielder Brandon Nimmo ranks a distant second. Beyond that pair, there are plenty of options to peruse, but the majority come with some degree of red flag.

If Houston prefers to pursue a younger option, any of Andrew Benintendi, Cody Bellinger or Joey Gallo could make sense — although the latter two are particularly dependent on Houston’s appetite for taking on a rebound candidate. Both Gallo and Bellinger have seen their once prodigious offensive profiles tank in recent seasons. Bellinger is likely available on a one-year deal as he looks to rebuild some stock. Benintendi, meanwhile, saw his season end on Sept. 2 due to a broken hamate bone. Masataka Yoshida, star outfielder for Japan’s Orix Buffaloes, will reportedly be posted for MLB clubs, but whether his outstanding production in NPB will carry over to MLB is a total unknown at this point.

Alternatives include longtime D-backs outfielder David Peralta, now-former Padres left fielder Jurickson Profar and well-traveled Corey Dickerson. Peralta is 35 and coming off a tepid finish to the 2022 season with the Rays. Profar’s age, bat-to-ball skills and former prospect status could all be appealing, but a .237/.331/.364 slash over the past two seasons isn’t especially eye-catching. Dickerson has had similar production but in a part-time role and is three years older.

The trade market, of course, presents myriad opportunities. The division-rival Mariners were known to be exploring trades involving Jesse Winker earlier this month. Minnesota’s Max Kepler is an oft-speculated trade candidate this winter, and switch-hitters Ian Happ (Cubs) and Anthony Santander (Orioles) were both discussed by their respective clubs in the weeks leading up  to this past summer’s trade deadline.

Whatever path the ’Stros take, some degree of outfield addition feels like a foregone conclusion. The 26-year-old Meyers hit just .227/.269/.313 in his return from last offseason’s shoulder surgery. McCormick, 27, posted solid overall numbers, but the overwhelming majority of his production came against left-handed pitchers; he hit .340/.409/.563 against southpaws but only .207/.301/.344 against fellow righties. Tucker, Meyers, McCormick, Alvarez and utilityman Mauricio Dubon are the only outfielders on the 40-man roster at present. Tucker and Alvarez are the only left-handed hitters who are locked into lineup spots.

Astros Sign Hitting Coach Alex Cintron To Multi-Year Extension

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The Astros have taken some steps towards preserving continuity on the coaching staff. Co-hitting coaches Alex Cintrón and Troy Snitker are returning in the same roles, they informed reporters (including Mark Berman of Fox 26 and Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports that Cintrón signed an extension that keeps him under contract through 2025.

The multi-year deal for Cintrón could be tied to some interest from a competitor. Rome writes the 43-year-old interviewed with the Blue Jays in their search for a bench coach to work alongside skipper John Schneider. His new deal with Houston forecloses the possibility of him heading north of the border. The Cintrón/Snitker pairing has worked together since the start of the 2019 season, guiding an extremely talented lineup to excellent results. Houston trails only the Dodgers in runs scored over the last four years. They were eighth in runs this past season, and they placed seventh in on-base percentage (.319) and fifth in slugging (.424).

Rome also reports the Astros have agreed to a new deal with pitching coach Josh Miller. He’ll be back for a second season. Miller was promoted to co-pitching coach alongside Bill Murphy after the departure of Brent Strom last offseason. The duo inherited an excellent pitching infrastructure and plenty of talent, but they also seem to have taken on their greater responsibilities very well. Only the Dodgers allowed fewer runs this year, while the Mets were the sole team to beat Astros pitchers’ 26% strikeout rate. The contract status of Murphy hasn’t yet been reported.

Other than Murphy, most of the key members of the coaching staff are slated to return on the heels of the World Series win. Dusty Baker will get a fourth season at the helm, and he’ll be joined by his co-hitting coaches and at least one of this past season’s pitching coaches. Bench coach Joe Espada and first base Omar López were previously reported to be back themselves.

American League Non-Tenders: 11/18/22

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The deadline to tender contract to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm Central. Here’s a rundown of the players on American League teams that have been non-tendered today. This post will be updated as more decisions are revealed.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all arb-eligible players last month. Onto the transactions…

Latest Transactions

  • The Mariners announced that they have non-tendered three players: catchers Brian O’Keefe and Luis Torrens, as well as righty Luke Weaver. Weaver was just claimed off waivers from the Royals a few weeks ago but will now become a free agent.
  • The White Sox announced three non-tenders: outfielders Adam Engel and Mark Payton, as well as infielder Danny Mendick. Engel is generally considered a strong defensive outfielder but he struggled at the plate in 2022. Mendick played all over the diamond while hitting .289/.343/.443 for a wRC+ of 125.
  • The Guardians announced they have non-tendered lefty Anthony Gose and catcher Luke Maile. Gose was designated for assignment earlier in the week. Maile got into 76 games hit at a below-average level with roughly average defensive marks.
  • The Angels announced four non-tenders: lefties Jhonathan Diaz and Rob Zastryzny, as well as righties Touki Toussaint and Nash Walters. The latter three names were designated for assignment a few days ago.
  • The Rays have non-tendered Ryan Yarbrough, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Tampa designated him for assignment earlier in the week.
  • The Blue Jays announced that they have non-tendered outfielders Raimel Tapia and Bradley Zimmer, as well as infielder Vinny Capra. The two former names were designated for assignment a few days ago.

Earlier Moves

  • The Athletics announced that they did not tender contracts to three players: right-hander Deolis Guerra, left-hander Jared Koenig and infielder David MacKinnon. Guerra is the most seasoned of the trio, having made his MLB debut back in 2015 and made 136 appearances. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John surgery in April, missing the entire 2022 campaign and possibly some of 2023 as well.
  • The Red Sox are non-tendering outfielder/first-baseman Franchy Cordero, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Cordero appeared in 84 games for the Red Sox this past season, but hit just .219/.300/.397 with eight home runs while grading out very poorly on defense.  The Sox have also non-tendered infielder Yu Chang, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. The versatile infielder began the year with the Guardians but subsequently went to the Pirates in a trade, then went to the Rays and Red Sox on waiver claims. Across those four teams, he hit .208/.289/.315 for a wRC+ of 78.
  • The Astros will part ways with reliever Josh James, as Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports they’re expected to non-tender him tonight. He spent the entire 2022 campaign in the minors, and underwent flexor tendon surgery in October and is without a timetable to return.
  • The Rangers announced that right-hander Nick Snyder has not been tendered a contract. He only has 4 2/3 innings of MLB experience over the past couple of seasons. He spent most of 2022 in Triple-A, posting a 4.97 ERA over 38 innings, though with a 30.9% strikeout rate.
  • The Royals opted to non-tender lefty Jake Brentz and right-hander Nate Webb, the team announced. That’s no surprise, as both players were designated for assignment earlier this week. They lost their 40-man roster spots as a result, but the non-tender means Kansas City won’t need to run them through waivers before sending them directly to free agency. Anne Rogers of MLB.com tweets that Kansas City is tendering contracts to the rest of their arbitration class, including Brad Keller and Amir Garrett — each of whom seemed to have a small chance of being cut loose after tough seasons.

Aaron Judge Wins AL MVP

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AL home run record holder Aaron Judge has been named the league’s Most Valuable Player, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. Angels two-way star Shohei Ohtani finished second, followed by Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez.

Judge has been the favorite to claim the award since a few weeks into the year. The herculean slugger popped six home runs in the season’s first month and only picked up the pace from there. He topped double-digits in longballs in each of the next three months before collecting 20 more from August onwards. His homer pace hit a bit of a lull once he reached 60 and pulled within one of Roger Maris with a bit more than two weeks to play, but Judge eventually claimed the record with blasts off Tim Mayza and Jesús Tinoco.

It was an obviously historic season from a power perspective, but the three-time Silver Slugger winner’s achievements went beyond the longball. He flirted with a Triple Crown late in the season and ultimately finished second among AL qualifiers with a .311 batting average. His .425 on-base percentage paced the circuit, and his .686 slugging mark was well better than Alvarez’s second-place .613 figure. He also played a significant amount of innings in center field, adequately moving to the outfield’s most demanding position after a career spent mostly in right field.

Judge helped the Yankees to 99 wins and an American League East crown. He earned his fourth career All-Star selection, and finished in the top five in MVP balloting for the third time. It’s his first time winning the award, and it couldn’t have come at a better time personally. Judge is a first-time free agent, and his ultimate destination will be one of the storylines of the winter.

Ohtani comes in second place the year after winning his first MVP. An incomparable player, Ohtani hit 34 homers and posted a .273/.356/.519 line as a designated hitter. The right-hander also tossed a career-high 166 innings, posting a 2.33 ERA with an AL-leading 33.2% strikeout rate in 28 starts. On his pitching accomplishments alone, he finished fourth in Cy Young balloting. That’s nothing short of remarkable for a player who also finished fifth in slugging and fourth in longballs in the American League. If not for an historic offensive season from Judge, Ohtani would likely have flown to a second straight MVP.

Judge received 28 of 30 first-place votes, with Ohtani collecting the other two. They were 1-2 in some order on every ballot, while Alvarez picked up 22 third-place nods. The Houston star hit .306/.406/.613, trailing only Judge among AL players in on-base and slugging. He finished third in homers and earned his first All-Star selection and MVP finalist appearance.

Guardians third baseman José Ramírez secured six third-place votes and finished fourth overall. Astros second baseman José Altuve came in fifth, edging out Cleveland second baseman Andrés Giménez (the only player besides Alvarez and Ramírez to secure any third-place votes). Julio Rodríguez, Mike Trout, Xander Bogaerts and Cy Young winner Justin Verlander rounded out the top ten.

Full voting breakdown available here.

Astros To Re-Sign Rafael Montero

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November 17: Montero’s contract will see him earn $11.5MM in all three years, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle.

November 12: Rafael Montero and the Astros are in agreement on a three-year, $34.5MM deal, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Montero is the third elite reliever to fall off the board early, after the Padres re-signed Robert Suarez and the Mets held on to Edwin Diaz.

It’s a remarkable deal considering Montero has amassed just 0.1 bWAR over his career and had a 6.39 ERA just in 2021, but speaks to how good he’s looked since landing in Houston, and the early value teams are placing on high-end relief pitching.

Montero, 32, tossed 68 1/3 innings out of Houston’s pen this year in addition to six innings thrown late last year after coming over from Seattle, posting a 2.18 ERA in that time with a 26.8% strikeout rate and an 8.6% walk rate. He’d posted an ugly 7.27 ERA (albeit with decent peripherals) in Seattle last year, before the Astros acquired him as part of the Kendall Graveman deal. In Houston, he’s leaned more heavily on his fastball, and cut back on his sinker and slider usage. Hitters have found it incredibly difficult to square up his pitches, and he gave up just three home runs all year (and one more in the playoffs) and ranked in the 91st percentile for average exit velocity.

It’s certainly worth nothing that this isn’t the first time Montero has had a bit of success, only to crash not long after. The Rangers inked him to a minor league deal in 2019 after four unsuccessful years with the Mets that concluded with Tommy John surgery prior to the ’18 campaign. He turned into a valuable member of the Rangers bullpen that year, throwing 29 innings of 2.28 ERA ball. He regressed a bit in 2020, but the Rangers were still able to flip him to the Mariners for a couple of prospects – Andres Mesa and Jose Corniell – prior to the 2021 campaign, but things would unravel for him in Seattle.

While it’s easy to look at that 2019 season with the Rangers and draw similarities to his past season with the Astros in that it’s an isolated strong season amongst a wider portfolio of poor output, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest he’s turned a corner for good. For instance, in 2019 his peripherals were far less impressive than his actual output, and it was over a much smaller sample size (29 innings against 74 1/3 in Houston). Ultimately though, dishing out any sort of multi-year free agency deal to relievers comes with a large degree of risk, and given how tough relievers’ future performance is to predict, there’s no guarantees Montero performs like he did in 2022 over the life of this deal.

This deal locks up a key contributor from their World Series winning team, but it’s curious to see a major deal like this done one day after the team moved on from their general manager. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reported that assistant GM Andrew Ball and senior director of baseball strategy Bill Firkus are running the day-to-day operations for the Astros after the departure of James Click, although Rome adds that that doesn’t necessarily mean those two were responsible for the Montero deal.

Houston’s projected payroll now sits at $164MM per RosterResource, about $15MM shy of their 2022 mark. There’s every chance they bring back Justin Verlander, while they could seek additions at center field, catcher and first base, so there’s a strong possibility their payroll comfortably eclipses the $179MM mark from 2022.

Their bullpen was one of the strengths of their championship roster this past season, and with the likes of Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu, Ryne Stanek, Hector Neris and the now-returning Montero it’s shaping up to be one of the best in baseball again.

It also bodes well for other top relievers on the market. Montero’s $34.5MM deal follows on from Suarez’ five-year, $46MM contract with the Padres and Diaz’s record-breaking five-year, $102MM deal with the Mets. On the whole, relievers are being paid handsomely to kick off free agency this year, and the agents of pitchers like Taylor Rogers and Kenley Jansen will surely be pointing teams to these deals as price points when going into negotiations.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

MLB Looking Into Potential CBA Violations By Multiple Teams Regarding Top Free Agents

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Major League Baseball has opened an investigation into the Yankees and Mets to determine if their owners improperly communicated about the free agency of AL MVP favorite Aaron Judge, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic.

The investigation is rooted in a column by Andy Martino of SNY earlier this month. Martino wrote the Mets were unlikely to pursue Judge in free agency, in part because of a mutual respect between Mets owner Steve Cohen and Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner.

As part of that piece, Martino wrote: “Talking to Mets people about this all through the year, the team in Queens sees Judge as a Yankee, uniquely tailored to be an icon in their uniform, stadium and branding efforts. Owners Steve Cohen and Hal Steinbrenner enjoy a mutually respectful relationship, and do not expect to upend that with a high-profile bidding war. The only way people involved can see the Mets changing course and pursuing Judge would be if the Yankees somehow declared themselves totally out of the bidding.”

To be clear, Martino didn’t characterize that as the sole reason the Mets could choose to sit out the Judge bidding, nor did he expressly state Cohen and Steinbrenner had talked about Judge’s free agency. He went on to note the Mets could be wary of signing another deal in excess of $300MM after extending Francisco Lindor last year.

The Mets could certainly make a legitimate baseball argument for not going after Judge, but communication among owners not to pursue a free agent — if it occurred — would be a collusive violation of the collective bargaining agreement. The MLB Players Association expressed concern about the SNY article to the league, Rosenthal notes, spurring the investigation. Rosenthal adds that MLB is expected to request communication records between Cohen and Steinbrenner.

In the 1980’s, arbitrators found a pattern of collusion among owners that depressed the 1985-87 free agent markets. In 1990, owners agreed to pay players $280MM as part of a settlement. Renewed collusion allegations arose in the early 2000’s, and Rosenthal notes the league agreed to a $12MM settlement but no admission of guilt during the 2006 CBA negotiations.

The MLBPA can file a grievance on Judge’s behalf, and Rosenthal writes the union would have to demonstrate both a) improper communication between the Yankees and Mets actually occurred and b) Judge’s market was harmed by that communication.

Meanwhile, Rosenthal suggests the MLBPA could take issue with the Astros in an unrelated matter. That’d relate to comments made by Houston owner Jim Crane last night on the free agent status of Cy Young winner Justin Verlander. Brian McTaggart of MLB.com wrote that “Crane said Verlander is seeking a deal similar to Max Scherzer,” who secured a three-year, $130MM deal with the Mets last winter, as part of an interview with MLB.com on Tuesday. Crane isn’t quoted on the record mentioning Scherzer, telling McTaggart of Verlander: “He’s looking at the comp, which I think there’s only one or two. … J.V.’s probably got a few years left, and he wants to make the most of it. I think he’s going to test the market on that.”

To be clear, there’s no suggestion Crane has been in conversations with other clubs about Verlander’s market. However, the CBA also expressly prohibits team officials from “(making) comments to the media about the value of an unsigned free agent, regardless of whether discussions have occurred,” including comments to the effect of “Player X is seeking more than Player Y received.”

If the Players Association decided to file a grievance against Houston, they’d likewise need to demonstrate Verlander’s market was harmed by Crane’s comments — ostensibly by arguing that Crane’s claims of the nine-time All-Star’s high asking price may deter other teams from jumping into the fray. To this point, there’s no indication the union has filed a grievance in either situation, but each bears monitoring over the coming weeks

Martin Maldonado Undergoes Sports Hernia Surgery

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The Astros announced catcher Martín Maldonado underwent surgery to repair a sports hernia yesterday. He’s expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training.

In the hours after Houston won the World Series, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the veteran backstop was likely to undergo hernia surgery. Rosenthal also reported that Maldonado fractured a bone in his throwing hand in August. He played through both injuries, and Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle tweets he’ll rehab that without going under the knife.

Maldonado was banged up late in the season, but that didn’t stop him from assuming the lion’s share of playing time behind the dish. Even after bringing in Christian Vázquez via trade, Houston turned to Maldonado as the primary catcher. He eventually topped 90 games on the season, triggering a $4.5MM vesting option in his contract for 2023.

The 36-year-old provides very little offensively, and that was the case again in 2022. Maldonado connected on a career-high 15 home runs but only mustered a .186/.248/.352 line over 379 plate appearances. He’s extraordinarily highly-regarded as a game-caller and leader of the pitching staff, though, and the Astros have proven willing to overlook Maldonado’s offensive shortcomings in recognition of his unquantifiable skills.

Houston could turn back to Maldonado as their primary catcher next year, although they’ve also been tied to possible upgrades. They’ve been linked to the top free agent backstop, Willson Contreras, in multiple reports through the offseason’s first week-plus.

Justin Verlander Wins American League Cy Young Award

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Justin Verlander has been named the American League’s Cy Young award winner, according to an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. He received all 30 first-place votes.

Like Sandy Alcantara in the National League, Verlander took the award in a clean sweep. The respective dominance of each player has look since taken away much of the intrigue as to who would actually claim the honors, and the unanimous finishes paint a picture of their excellence. Verlander’s elbow blew out during his first start of 2020, eventually leading to a Tommy John surgery that kept him out of action until this year. He returned to the Astros on a $25MM guarantee last winter and, despite being 39 years old, showed no ill effects of such a major procedure.

Verlander returned to make 28 starts, staying healthy until a late-season injured list stint with a calf strain. He tossed 175 innings with an AL-best 1.75 ERA, a mark nearly a half-run lower than that of the next-best finisher. Even with the late-season IL stay, the former MVP placed 16th in the Junior Circuit in innings. He finished seventh among those with 100+ frames in strikeout rate (27.8%) and walk percentage (4.4%) alike.

It’s the third career Cy Young nod for the future Hall of Famer. Verlander becomes the 11th pitcher in big league history to claim the award three times, joining former teammate Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw as the only active players to do so. He earned his ninth All-Star nod midseason and led his league in ERA for the second time.

Verlander’s Cy Young adds to an already illustrious resume, while his stellar season positions him for a fascinating trip to free agency. He’s presently on the open market after declining a player option with Houston for the 2023 campaign. There’s essentially no precedent for a pitcher performing this well hitting free agency heading into his age-40 season. Verlander’s sure to secure one of the loftiest per-year salaries in MLB history, and Houston owner Jim Crane said last night he’s looking to top Scherzer’s three-year, $130MM deal with the Mets from last winter.

The other finalists in the American League were Chicago’s Dylan Cease and Toronto’s Alek Manoah. Cease received 14 second-place votes to earn the runner-up finish after placing second with a 2.20 ERA in 184 innings. Manoah finished just behind him with a 2.24 ERA across 196 2/3 frames, securing seven second-place votes in his own right. Cease and Manoah joined Verlander in appearing on all 30 ballots in some capacity.

Shohei Ohtani finished in fourth place and actually secured more second-place votes (nine) than did Manoah after leading the league in strikeout rate. Innings leader Framber Valdez ended up in fifth. Others who earned at least one vote are Shane McClanahan, Shane Bieber, Nestor Cortes Jr., Gerrit Cole and Kevin Gausman.

Full voting breakdown available here.

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