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Justin Verlander Still Awaiting Qualifying Offer Decision

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Astros owner and chairman Jim Crane insists that his club has the resources they need to improve their ball club, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter). Crane did not mince words when speaking of his team needs, simply calling out the fact that the Astros will be looking for pitching and a shortstop, per Rome.

The latter need is the more finite and interesting of the two. Carlos Correa will presumably walk as a free agent, despite the resources that Crane touts as being available to his club. Certainly, for a club that has made three World Series appearances over the past five years, there should be no shortage of financial might.

The decision to let Correa walk, should they do so, is more a calculated evaluation of resource allocation. Still, it’s interesting for Crane to voice that position as one of need. Jeremy Pena has shown promise in the minor leagues, but it would be a tall order for Pena to step directly into the starting lineup for Correa, a franchise icon and two-time All-Star. The 24-year-old his an impressive .287/.346/.598 over 133 plate appearances at Triple-A.

On the pitching side, the Astros have already shifted to a new generations of arms led by the likes of Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, and Luis Garcia. Former ace and rotation stalwart Justin Verlander is still awaiting a possible qualifying offer, however. Despite missing all of last season because of Tommy John surgery, the 38-year-old would be a high ceiling, short-term use of the Astros’ financial might, were they to go ahead and extend the qualifying offer. The deadline to extend that offer is Sunday, and the Astros are still considering their options, tweets Rome.

Astros Sign Dusty Baker To One-Year Extension

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The Astros are bringing back their skipper, announcing on Friday that they’ve agreed to a one-year contract that keeps Dusty Baker in the dugout for 2022. It’ll be his third season in Houston.

Baker has had plenty of success in his first two years, leading the team to the AL Championship Series in 2020 and an AL pennant this past season. Houston lost to the Braves in the World Series, but there’s little question the Astros have had plenty of success during Baker’s tenure. Over his two seasons at the helm, the team has posted a 124-98 regular season record (.559 winning percentage) and won four of six playoff series.

Of course, Baker inherited a much stronger roster than most first-year skippers receive. The Astros had gone to the World Series in 2019 under A.J. Hinch, and Baker took over a star-studded clubhouse in a win-now situation. With that talent came the challenge of overseeing a group embroiled in criticism and disrepute after the revelation of the team’s 2017 sign-stealing operation. Regardless of the caliber of players on the roster, the scandal could have weighed on the club’s on-field performance. The front office surely gives Baker no small amount of credit for his ability to navigate the fallout of a cheating scheme that preceded his time in the organization and lead the team to continued success.

Given his success over his first two seasons, Baker always looked to deserve another shot in Houston, assuming the 72-year-old wanted to continue managing. As the expiration of his current two-year deal neared, however, some speculation had begun to mount about his future. Baker’s hiring predated that of general manager James Click, and there’d at least seemed some possibility Click would prefer to bring in his own hire in that role. That apparently won’t be the case, as Baker is now slated to return after meeting with owner Jim Crane this morning.

Even before his successful couple of seasons in Houston, Baker had established himself as one of the most accomplished managers in MLB history. A two-time All-Star as a player, he first became a big league skipper with the 1993 Giants. Baker led the Giants for ten seasons, then managed the Cubs from 2003-06, the Reds from 2008-13 and the Nationals from 2016-17. His teams posted cumulative winning records in every stop except for Chicago, and Baker’s 1,987 regular season wins are the twelfth-most in history. Only Tony La Russa has more wins among active skippers.

Baker will assuredly eclipse 2,000 wins early next season, and he’ll have another chance at claiming a first World Series title. The three-time Manager of the Year winner’s teams haven’t been without postseason success, as he’s led four teams at least as far as an LCS and two squads (the 2002 Giants and 2021 Astros) to a pennant. Baker’s clubs haven’t yet claimed a World Series title, though. There’s certainly a fair amount of bad luck in that fact, given the small sample vagaries of playoff baseball.

Regardless of whether or to what extent Baker deserves blame for his teams not yet winning a World Series, there’s no doubt he’ll be motivated to accomplish that elusive final goal. The Astros are facing the potential departures of quite a few key free agents, most notably shortstop Carlos Correa, but they’re sure to bring back another very talented roster even if they lose a couple of their top players. With Baker back to lead the charge, Houston figures to yet again enter the season as one of the top contenders in the American League.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that Baker was expected to re-sign. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle was among those to relay that Baker had signed a one-year deal.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Astros To Exercise 2022 Option On Yuli Gurriel

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The Astros are set to exercise their $8MM club option to bring Yuli Gurriel back for 2022, the first baseman himself announced on Twitter. That’s hardly an unexpected development, as that option has looked like a mere formality for months given how well Gurriel played in 2021.

Gurriel returns for what’ll be a seventh season in Houston. A productive hitter over his first few seasons, he scuffled through an uncharacteristically poor 2020 campaign. Despite those struggles, the Astros struck early to keep him from reaching free agency last winter, signing him for a guaranteed $7.5MM in September with the 2022 option. It seemed a bit of a puzzling move at the time, but it turned out to be a fantastic decision by general manager James Click and his staff.

Not only did Gurriel return to form this past season, he posted a career year. Over 605 plate appearances, the right-handed hitter put up a .319/.383/.462 line with 15 home runs. That .319 mark won Gurriel his first batting title, and his overall offensive output was 34 percentage points above the league average by measure of wRC+. While he doesn’t hit for the kind of power typically found at the position, Gurriel is one of the game’s hardest players to strike out and walked in a career-high 9.8% of his plate appearances this past season.

With Gurriel’s option taken care of, he’ll return to again assume the everyday first base job. The move brings the Astros’ guaranteed 2022 commitments just north of $114MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. An arbitration class collectively projected to earn around $14.5MM will push that total near $130MM before considering outside additions. That’s about $60MM shy of their season-opening outlay in 2021, so Click and his staff should have some flexibility in trying to retain or replace a free agent group that includes Carlos Correa, Justin Verlander,Kendall Graveman and Zack Greinke.

Zack Greinke Not Expected To Re-Sign With Astros

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The Astros have one of the more significant crop of free agents around the league, as the team is facing the potential departures of Carlos Correa, Justin Verlander, Kendall Graveman and Zack Greinke, among others. Houston may make an effort to retain some of that group, but Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (on Twitter) that Greinke is not expected to return to the Astros this winter.

Assuming he indeed signs elsewhere, Greinke will wrap up his Astros tenure after two and a half seasons. Acquired from the D-Backs in a surprise 2019 deadline day blockbuster, the six-time All-Star worked 62 2/3 innings with a pristine 3.02 ERA down the stretch. While he was knocked around in one start during the Division Series, Greinke had strong showings in both the AL Championship Series and World Series that year.

Over the past two seasons, Greinke has offered more steady mid-rotation production than the ace-caliber numbers he consistently posted for the bulk of his career. He worked 67 frames of 4.03 ERA ball in 2020, and put up a similar 4.16 mark over 171 innings this past season. His underlying numbers this year took a worrying downturn, though, which contributed to the team curtailing his postseason workload. Greinke’s strikeout rate dropped from 24.5% in 2020 to 17.2% this past season, while his home run rate doubled. During this year’s run to the World Series, skipper Dusty Baker relied more heavily on the team’s younger arms, with Greinke working just 6 1/3 innings of two-run ball in three playoff outings.

The dip in swing-and-miss should have some impact on Greinke’s offseason market, but the 38-year-old will no doubt still find plenty of interest. His 4.16 ERA, while his highest mark since 2016, was nevertheless a bit better than the leaguewide 4.34 showing for starting pitchers. Greinke remains one of the sport’s preeminent control artists, with this year’s 5.2% walk percentage checking in 11th-lowest among the 129 hurlers with 100+ innings. And that’s before considering the intangible value teams could expect from the 18-year big league veteran, who is regarded as one of the league’s most cerebral pitchers.

Nightengale suggests Greinke would prefer an opportunity with a National League team. That’s something of an odd distinction on the surface, since it’s widely expected that this offseason’s collective bargaining talks could result in the introduction of the designated hitter to the NL (thereby removing the biggest differentiator between the two leagues). Still, it’s possible Greinke — who played the bulk of the 2011-19 seasons playing for NL clubs — might broadly prefer the accommodations or ballparks in the NL to those of the American League.

Astros’ Pitching Coach Brent Strom Won’t Return In 2022

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In the champagne-colored haze that followed the World Series, the top story was the championship team in Atlanta, of course. But there was also some news from the opposing side, as Brent Strom held a post-game scrum and announced that he will not be returning as the Astros’ pitching coach next season. (Links from Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle and Mark Berman of Fox 26.) A few weeks ago, Strom had hinted that he was considering this path, before making it official after last night’s game.

The 73-year-old isn’t committed to a full-on retirement necessarily, but seems confident about the role he won’t have. “There may be another opportunity for me somewhere else. I may look at that. I may just go lie on a beach in Mexico,” Strom said. “But I need to enjoy my life a little bit. I haven’t had a summer in a long time. So we’ll see. I haven’t made a final decision yet, but I know I won’t be back as the Major League pitching coach here. Yeah. I know that for a fact.”

Strom made 100 appearances over five seasons in his playing career, from 1972 to 1977. He logged 501 innings with an ERA of 3.95 over his time with three different clubs. Since then, he’s been coaching in different roles for various organizations, including the Royals, Nationals and Cardinals. But his most consistent stretch at the big league level has been his most recent tenure with the Astros, running from 2014 through 2021, which coincided with their emergence from a lengthy rebuild into a consistent powerhouse club, including the now-infamous championship club from 2017.

Strom’s departure opens up an important position in the dugout, and he seemed to imply that the torch will be passed to someone already within the organization, listing bullpen coach Josh Miller and assistant pitching coach Bill Murphy as options. “I really think this organization’s in a really good position with these two young pitching coaches that we have, and I’m sure had I stayed there would be teams coming after these two guys,” he said. “I think this organization deserves these two young guys, Murphy and Miller, to stay. How they work that out is up to them.” Miller has been with the organization since 2011, working in various roles over the past decade, but has been the bullpen coach for the past three seasons. Murphy signed on to work with the Astros’ minor leaguers prior to the 2017 season and then worked his way up to the big league team for the 2021 campaign.

It’s unclear if the Astros’ front office perceives the transition as smoothly as Strom does, but he made it clear that Miller and Murphy already deserve much of the credit for the current Houston pitching staff. “If you look at all these pitchers that we have right now, most of them came up through those two guys. Outside of Lance [McCullers Jr.] that I had as a holdover, all my guys have kind of moved on.” With that framing in mind, it seems like Strom has already been gradually relinquishing some duties to Murphy and Miller. But it remains to be seen how the organization will divvy up the job titles and responsibilities for next season, or if they plan to consider external hires.

Elsewhere on Houston’s coaching staff, there will also be a vacancy in the manager’s seat with Dusty Baker’s contract now expiring, although it’s possible that matter will be settled in short order. Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that Astros’ owner Jim Crane “plans to sit down with Dusty Baker in the next few days to iron out a one- or 2-year contract.” The return of Baker would not come as a huge surprise, given how his time in Houston has gone so far. The club was mired in the aftermath of the scandalous sign-stealing revelations when Crane personally hired Baker as the new skipper, and he has guided the club through a pair of successful campaigns, making it to the ALCS in 2020 and the World Series in 2021. Crane discussed the matter about a month ago and didn’t say anything definitive, but spoke positively of Baker. Dusty himself seemed to indicate that he wanted to return, when discussing things a few weeks ago, making it seem like there’s enough mutual interest for an extension to potentially come together fairly quickly.

Framber Valdez, Tucker Davidson To Start Game 5 Of World Series

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The Astros will turn to Framber Valdez to stave off elimination in tonight’s fifth game of the World Series, while the Braves will kick off a bullpen game with another rookie pitcher.  The Braves announced this afternoon that left-hander Tucker Davidson will get the start (or, more accurately, serve as the opener) in what will be Davidson’s first career postseason appearance, and only his sixth career games at the Major League level.  Davidson was added to the Braves’ World Series roster as an injury replacement after Charlie Morton suffered a fractured fibula during Game 1.

Davidson made one start for Atlanta in 2020 and then posted a 3.60 ERA over four starts and 20 innings this season, with his most recent MLB outing coming back on June 15 due to a forearm injury.  In fact, Davidson has only pitched one game total since that June 15 start, tossing three innings for Triple-A Gwinnett on the final day of the minor league season (October 3).

Though Davidson is one of the better pitching prospects in Atlanta’s farm system, obviously it’s anyone’s guess as to what he’ll be able to deliver on the mound, even in what might amount to just an inning of work.  That said, given how the rest of the Braves bullpen has stifled Houston’s lineup throughout the World Series, Davidson’s task is just to avoid disaster and then turn things over to his veteran teammates.

The Braves followed this same script in Game 4, as rookie Dylan Lee worked as the opener and pitched to four batters, recording one out and allowing a run on a hit and two walks.  Kyle Wright then entered the game to bail Lee out, and Wright proceeded to toss 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball.  A scoreless inning each from Chris Martin, Tyler Matzek, Luke Jackson, and Will Smith later, and Atlanta sealed a 3-2 victory and a commanding 3-1 lead in the Series.

Astros hitters have combined for a meager .206/.291/.298 slash line over the four games against the Braves, with only Michael Brantley and Kyle Tucker showing any consistency at the plate.  Starting the southpaw Davidson in Game 5 could be a preventative measure on Atlanta’s part against Houston moving the left-handed hitting Tucker up in the batting order, though the Braves have plenty of other left-handed options on their roster.

The lack of production from the usually-reliable lineup is the biggest issue facing the Astros, as their own pitchers have done a solid job of limiting Atlanta’s offense over the last three games, with only one victory to show for it.  In Game 1, however, the Braves hit Valdez hard for five runs over two innings, setting up a 6-2 Atlanta win in the Series opener.

It has been a roller-coaster of a playoffs for Valdez, who has been very shaky outside of his eight-inning/one-run gem against the Red Sox in Game 5 of the ALCS.  In Valdez’s other three starts this postseason, he has been torched for 11 runs over nine innings of work.  With the season on the line for the Astros, manager Dusty Baker may have a relatively quick hook for Valdez at the first sign of trouble, as Houston will have every available arm at the ready to try and get the Series to a sixth game.

Jason Castro Tests Positive For COVID-19; Garrett Stubbs Added To World Series Roster

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Major League Baseball announced that it has approved a roster substitution for the Houston Astros, with Jason Castro being removed from the World Series roster due to COVID-19 protocols. Fellow catcher Garrett Stubbs will take his place. Astros’ general manager James Click didn’t answer a question about whether Castro tested positive, according to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. However, Mark Berman of Fox 26 reports that Castro has indeed tested positive.

This news comes with just over an hour to go before Houston is set to take on Atlanta in the fourth game of the series. This shouldn’t affect tonight’s lineup as Martin Maldonado was penciled into the catcher’s slot when that was announced earlier today.

When Jorge Soler tested positive during the NLDS, he had to quarantine for at least five days and couldn’t return until cleared as non-infectious by a four-person joint health and safety committee, consisting of two doctors, and one representative each from the league and the players’ union. Assuming the same protocols are in place now, that means Castro’s season is done. The seventh game of the series is scheduled for November 3rd, which is just four days away.

Maldonado has seen the bulk of the playing time behind the plate this season, garnering 41 plate appearances so far to Castro’s nine. But Castro has made those nine appearances count, as he had a single, a homer and two walks. As for Stubbs, he only made 38 plate appearances at the big league level this year. But in Triple-A, he got 146 appearances and hit .265/.418/.363.

Zack Greinke, Dylan Lee To Start Game 4 Of The World Series

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Both starting pitchers have now been announced for tonight’s Game 4 of the World Series, as the Braves have revealed that rookie left-hander Dylan Lee will get the ball to begin what is expected to be a bullpen game against the Astros.  For Houston, manager Dusty Baker confirmed last night that Zack Greinke will start, with Greinke also likely in line for an abbreviated outing.

While both pitchers can probably be more accurately described as openers rather than true starters for tonight’s game, the Lee/Greinke matchup represents quite a contrast in experience.  Greinke has 18 MLB seasons, 3110 regular-season innings, and 21 postseason appearances on his resume.  On the other side of the equation, the 27-year-old Lee didn’t make his Major League debut until October 1, and he has thus far pitched a total of two regular-season innings and 2 2/3 postseason innings in his brief career in The Show.

Lee was included on Atlanta’s NLDS roster but didn’t see any action, and he wasn’t initially on the NLCS roster until Huascar Ynoa had to be replaced due to injury.  Lee pitched two frames of relief in the Braves’ 11-2 loss to the Dodgers in Game 5 of the NLCS, and he then pitched two-thirds of an inning against the Astros in Game 2 of the World Series.

Originally a tenth-round pick for the Marlins in the 2016 draft, Lee posted some solid numbers in his first four pro season, but Miami released him during Spring Training this year.  The Braves inked Lee to a minor league deal, and he responded with some big numbers (1.54 ERA, 30.9% strikeout rate, and a tiny 3.4% walk rate) over 46 2/3 Triple-A innings.

Now, Lee finds himself on the hill in the Fall Classic, becoming the first pitcher to ever make his first Major League start in a Series game (as per the Elias Sports Bureau).  Lee will face a probable top three of Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, and Alex Bregman, assuming the Astros stick with the same lineup they’ve deployed throughout the World Series.

Between injuries, two weeks on the COVID-related injured list, and a general lack of effectiveness late in the season, Greinke has been limited to two appearances during the playoffs.  He tossed an inning of relief in Houston’s 12-6 loss to the White Sox in the ALDS, and then got the start against the Red Sox in Game 4 of the ALCS.  Though the Astros won that game by a 9-2 margin, Greinke only faced nine batters over 1 1/3 innings, walking three batters and allowing a two-run homer to Xander Bogaerts.

These recent results notwithstanding, “if anybody knows how to pitch in a big game, it’s Greinke,” Baker told reporters yesterday.  “We don’t know how long he’s going to go. Just give us as much quality as you can, and then we’ll turn it over to somebody else.”  Cristian Javier is probably the likeliest candidate to toss bulk innings tonight, as the righty has worked beyond one innings in each of his four postseason outings this year, including 1 1/3 innings against Atlanta in Game 2.

Astros Announce World Series Roster

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The Astros announced their 26-man World Series roster ahead of tonight’s Game 1 clash with the NL Champion Atlanta Braves. The AL champs made only a single change from their ALCS roster, dropping rookie outfielder Jake Meyers for utilityman (and playoff veteran) Marwin Gonzalez. The Astros’ pitching staff, which again does not include Lance McCullers Jr., is unchanged.

Here’s the full roster breakdown:

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Gonzalez’s contributions to Astros teams of yore — including the 2017 World Series winners — make his inclusion noteworthy, but he’s unlikely to offer more than bench depth as the series moves to an NL park for Games 3-5. Though always crucial to his value, his positional versatility is Gonzalez’s calling card at this point; he’s appeared at every position on the diamond but catcher at least once at some point in his ten-year career. Aside from a roughly average year with the Twins in 2019, Gonzalez has done little with the bat since leaving the Astros and posted only a combined .567 OPS across 307 plate appearances with Boston and Houston in 2021.

Meyers, the man he replaces, was solid for the Astros in 2021 in his first taste of big-league action, putting together a .260/.323/.438 line in 163 trips to the plate while also capably manning Minute Maid Park’s spacious center field, but he did not see the field in the ALCS after suffering a shoulder injury in the Game 4 ALDS clincher against the White Sox. Though the Astros had carried him on the ALCS roster to maintain his eligibility for the World Series, hopes he’d be ready to go by now have evidently not borne out. Fellow rookies McCormick and Siri will be tasked with manning center field in his stead.

Though the club’s roster selection proved relatively drama-free, a number of question do loom for manager Dusty Baker. In particular, the club’s pitching plan remains up in the air, with only Valdez and Urquidy announced as starters. While rookie Luis Garcia is likely to get the ball for Game 3 in Atlanta, Baker’s Game 4 plan is anyone’s guess, with Greinke, Odorizzi, and a bullpen game all viable options. It’s also unclear how Baker will handle DH Yordan Alvarez in the games played in Atlanta — and who would be asked to take a seat if Alvarez plays the outfield.

Lance McCullers Jr. Won’t Pitch In World Series

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OCTOBER 25: McCullers confirmed he won’t be able to pitch in the World Series while speaking with reporters this afternoon (video via Mark Berman of Fox 26). The righty indicated that the strain he suffered typically requires a six-to-eight week rest period, and there’s obviously not that level of leeway remaining at this point of the season.

OCTOBER 24: Astros right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. hasn’t pitched since Game 4 of the ALDS, and it looks like his forearm injury will end his season.  MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports that McCullers won’t be available for the World Series, so Houston will now have to try and win its second consecutive postseason matchup without one of its best hurlers.

Astros GM James Click didn’t rule McCullers out when speaking to reporters (including The Houston Chronicle’s Danielle Lerner) earlier today, noting that roster decisions didn’t need to made until Tuesday morning, “and we’re going to take every minute we can just to see how he’s responding.  We’re not taking anything off the table….It’s obviously something that I know Lance wants to be out there if he can, so we will talk to the doctors and him and the trainers and figure it out from there.”

However, as open-minded as Click was about McCullers’ chances, Heyman’s report essentially formalizes what has seemed increasingly evident over the last few days.  McCullers has yet to so much as throw since suffering his injury, a strain of his flexor pronator muscle.  While the muscle injury itself doesn’t present any serious long-term issue, McCullers has already undergone Tommy John surgery (costing him the entire 2019 season), and obviously the Astros aren’t going to take any unnecessary risks with his health.

That TJ rehab cost McCullers a chance to participate in the 2019 World Series, and it’s quite possible that with a healthy McCullers in the fold, Houston would’ve been able to bring home another championship.  The righty has quietly been a very solid arm during the Astros’ postseason runs, with a 2.83 ERA over 57 1/3 innings as a starter and a reliever in the playoffs.  This year alone, McCullers allowed just one earned run in 10 2/3 frames against the White Sox in the ALDS, starting Games 1 and 4.

Framber Valdez was announced as Houston’s starter for Tuesday’s Game 1 against the Braves.  As we saw in the ALCS against the Red Sox, the Astros will take a flexible approach to their pitching plans, so no other starters have been officially slated for the other World Series games.  On paper, it would seem like the Astros would line up Luis Garcia in Game 2, Jose Urquidy in Game 3, and then Zack Greinke for perhaps only a few innings to begin Game 4, with Cristian Javier and Jake Odorizzi on hand to provide innings as long men out of the bullpen.

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