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The Opener: World Series, Pujols, Orioles

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Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR! Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.

As the calendar flips to November, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:

1. World Series Game 3 Rained Out, Improving Philadelphia’s Pitching Matchups

Yesterday’s opener mentioned the availability of Phillies aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler among the biggest obstacles facing Philadelphia headed into their three game homestand, and that obstacle has been partially removed due to the postponement of last night’s game: Aaron Nola is now in line to start Game 4 tomorrow on regular rest, while Houston is opting to maintain their rotation order, leaving ace Justin Verlander to start Game 5 with an extra day of rest, the same decision the Phillies have made for Wheeler in Game 6, with Noah Syndergaard likely set to take Nola’s place starting Game 5, potentially allowing him to pitch deeper into the game than he would have if he had pitched last night, as previously planned. Tonight’s game will see lefty Ranger Suarez toe the rubber for Philadelphia opposite Houston’s Lance McCullers Jr.

2. Albert Pujols Officially Retires

The retirement of Albert Pujols sees one of baseball’s all-time legends step away from the game, but it also poses a question that, as recently as this spring, would’ve been unexpected: How is St. Louis going to replace his production? Pujols slashed a phenomenal .270/.345/.550 in his final season, good for a 154 OPS+ that registers as his best mark since 2010, his age 30 season. Nolan Arenado declining to opt-out of his contract taking one major offseason question for the Cardinals off the table, but Pujols’s retirement combined with the impending retirement of longtime catcher Yadier Molina are going to leave St. Louis with plenty of work to do this offseason. After all, only Aaron Judge posted a better offensive season than Pujols in 2022 among pending free agents (min. 300 PA), and no catcher in baseball has the sort of illustrious reputation as a defensive catcher and game-caller that Molina has. Speculation has swirled early on in this this offseason connecting the Cardinals to the longtime catcher of their division rival Cubs, Willson Contreras. Contreras represents a particularly intriguing option for St. Louis, as he could help cover for the loss of both Pujols and Molina, giving the Cardinals a quality right-handed bat to slot into the DH slot on occasion while also shoring up a catching corps that includes Andrew Knizner and Ivan Herrera.

3. Orioles Have Infield Surplus Headed Into 2023

BaltimoreBaseball’s Rich Dubroff this morning discussed a coming logjam in the Orioles infield this offseason, suggesting that if no trades are made, Ramon Urias may be pushed into a utility role by the impending arrival of Jordan Westburg in addition to the presence of Gunnar Henderson and Jorge Mateo. Dubroff notes that this ignores players such as Terrin Vavra and Joey Ortiz, who could be squeezed out of playing time if no changes are made to the infield mix. The Orioles stepping into the infield market as a seller hoping to acquire win-now pieces would be an interesting development, with pitching being the clearest need for a team that lost John Means to Tommy John surgery early this year and had just one starter who made at least 20 starts with an ERA+ over 100. The Marlins stand out as a possible trade partner with their surplus of pitching, offensive woes, and tight budget, but there’s no doubt a variety of teams would be interested in adding a player like Urias should he hit the trade market.

The Opener: World Series, White Sox, Senga

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Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR!  Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.

As the postseason continues and the baseball world gears up for the offseason, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today across baseball:

1. The World Series Heads To Philadelphia

The World Series is set to return to Philadelphia for the first time since 2009 tonight, with Noah Syndergaard set to take on Lance McCullers Jr. in Game 3. The series is tied 1-1 after the Phillies managed a comeback from a 5-0 deficit in Game 1 but were unable to do so for a second time in Game 2. With Philadelphia’s pair of aces, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, unlikely to return to the mound before Game 5, the Phillies will have to rely on their offense, a well-rested back of the bullpen, and the boost of playing front of their home crowd to overcome the Astros, who won 19 more regular season games in 2022 than Philadelphia.

2. The White Sox Are The Final Team With A Managerial Vacancy

Following yesterday’s announcement that the Royals have hired Matt Quatraro as manager, their AL Central rival on the south side of Chicago is the final team searching for a manager this season, assuming Astros manager Dusty Baker is indeed asked to return for the 2023 season. Chicago’s search for a skipper who can help the team move past Tony La Russa’s tumultuous second run as the team’s manager has lacked the clarity other managerial searches this offseason have possessed. With one of the few known interviewees in Astros bench coach Joe Espada reportedly out of the running, the only candidates known to have received interviews to this point are Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol, who also interviewed for vacancies in Kansas City and Miami, and former White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen. White Sox GM Rick Hahn noted earlier this month that interim manager Miguel Cairo would be interviewed for the position during his end of season press conference.

3. Kodai Senga Eyes Free Agency

NPB star Kodai Senga has been expected to test international free agency this offseason for months now, and according to Jason Coskrey of The Japan Times, the right-hander has officially filed the necessary paperwork with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks to do so. Senga, who will pitch next season at age 30, figures to be one of the more intriguing options in the starting pitching market this offseason. With a phenomenal 1.94 ERA in 2022 and a four pitch mix including a mid-90s fastball and a splitter FanGraphs sees having “bat-missing action”, Senga figures to be given ample opportunity to establish himself in the big leagues as a quality starter, and at a much cheaper cost than the top flight free agent starters such as Carlos Rodon, Jacob deGrom, and Justin Verlander. That cheaper cost is due to the heightened risk in his profile, however; overseas players are rarely guaranteed to see their talents carry over at the same level in the big leagues, and FanGraphs notes that it’s possible Senga may need to pitch in high-leverage relief in the majors due to the relative weakness of his cutter and slider. Still, Senga figures to generate a great deal of interest among pitching-needy teams this offseason, and his free agency should be closely monitored.

White Sox No Longer Considering Joe Espada In Managerial Search

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Astros bench coach Joe Espada is no longer a candidate to become the next White Sox manager, MLB.com’s Scott Merkin reports.  Espada was reportedly a finalist for the Marlins’ job before Miami hired Skip Schumaker earlier this week, and he hasn’t been linked to the Royals, the only other team still looking for a new manager.  As a result, it looks like Espada will again come up short in a bid for his first Major League managerial job, after previously being considered by such teams as the Mets, Giants, Athletics, Twins, and Cubs over the last few seasons.

The 47-year-old Espada has been Houston’s bench coach for the last five seasons, the Yankees’ third base coach/infield coach from 2015-17, and the Marlins’ third base coach from 2010-13.  Prior to his first big league posting, Espada also worked as a coach and coordinator for several years in the Marlins farm system.  There has been speculation that the Astros might’ve been grooming Espada to step into their managerial post if Dusty Baker wasn’t retained or if the 73-year-old Baker decided to retire, but since Houston is reportedly interested in bringing Baker back in 2023, Espada might have to wait at least one more year if the Astros job is indeed a possibility.

Espada, Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol, and former White Sox and Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen are the only candidates confirmed to have interviewed for the White Sox job.  Reports surfaced last week that the Sox had interest in speaking with Guillen about a possible return, and NBC Sports Chicago’s Chuck Garfien reported that Guillen’s interview took place last Monday.

Beyond that trio, interim manager Miguel Cairo and Braves third base coach Ron Washington were also known to be under consideration, though it isn’t known if the Sox have actually spoken with either candidate.  One would imagine Cairo has already met with the team at some point in the last few weeks, since as Merkin notes, White Sox GM Rick Hahn said during his season wrap-up press conference on October 3 that Cairo would get an interview.

With this uncertainty still surrounding the search, it isn’t known if the White Sox have any other interviews lined up, or if they’re approaching any sort of “finalist” stage.  It is possible the Sox might be waiting until the World Series is over (or at least for the Series’ scheduled off-days on October 30 or November 3) to make an official announcement, if they are indeed close to a decision.

Astros Announce World Series Roster

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The Astros announced their 26-man roster for the World Series.  As previously announced, Justin Verlander will be the starting pitcher for Game 1 tonight against the Phillies.

Veteran left-hander Will Smith joins the roster, taking the place of right-hander Seth Martinez.  This is the first time Smith has been included in Houston’s playoff run, while Martinez was on the roster for the ALCS but didn’t pitch during the Astros’ four-game sweep of the Yankees.  Smith hasn’t pitched in a game since October 4, in Houston’s second-last outing of the regular season (by coincidence, that game was also against the Phillies).

Though there is a natural risk of rust after a pretty lengthy layoff for Smith, he also brings plenty of postseason experience, including a ring just last year with the Braves.  The southpaw was a force for Atlanta throughout the playoffs, throwing 11 innings over 11 games without allowing a single run.  As MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart tweets, Smith also has a strong track record against Philadelphia’s left-handed batters — Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, and Bryson Stott are a collective 2-for-20 against Smith.  Harper has the only two hits over his 14 at-bats against Smith, and since Harper has been on a tear throughout the playoffs, the Astros seem to be eyeing Smith as a way of trying to neutralize the NLCS MVP.

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Marlins To Hire Oz Ocampo As Assistant General Manager

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The Marlins are hiring Astros executive Oz Ocampo as an assistant general manager, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network.

Although the offseason hasn’t officially begun, Marlins general manager Kim Ng has been busy putting pieces together for non-playing roles. The Fish added Skip Schumaker to the dugout two days ago, replacing Don Mattingly as the manager. Now they will also have Ocampo on staff, bringing him over from Houston.

Ocampo has worn various hats in his career, starting out by acting as a scout for the Cardinals in the Dominican Republic. He then worked in the International Baseball Operations department of Major League Baseball before joining the Astros. He worked in Houston’s international scouting and player development department but left after 2019 to join the Pirates as a special assistant of player personnel. In February of this year, he returned to the Astros’ international scouting department.

At the time of Ocampo rejoining the Astros, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle noted that Framber Valdez, José Urquidy, Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier were all signed during Ocampo’s time with the organization. He adds that Ocampo wanted the Astros to sign Yordan Alvarez, who signed with the Dodgers but was later acquired by Houston in a trade. Baseball scouting departments are large entities that consist of many people, making it difficult to assign credit or blame to a single individual. Still, it’s apparent that Ocampo’s work is respected around the industry and there’s no doubting the fact that the Astros have a strong track record of international player development in recent years.

The Marlins are not an organization that spends at a high level, having not had an Opening Day payroll north of $100MM since 2017, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Given that they share a division with four clubs that have shown a much greater spending capacity, it’s very important that the Marlins succeed in terms of acquiring and developing younger and cheaper players. As Morosi notes, the hiring of Ocampo comes at a crucial time, with the Marlins opening a new academy in the Dominican Republic tomorrow.

Marlins Down To Four Managerial Finalists

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11:30am: Heyman tweets that the Marlins have narrowed the group down to four and expect to make a decision soon. Heyman tweets that the Marlins have narrowed the group down to four and expect to make a decision soon. Raul Ibanez was interviewed early in the process but is not among the four, Heyman adds.

Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald reports that former Mets skipper Luis Rojas, who’s currently the Yankees’ third base coach, also secured a second interview, suggesting that he’s the fourth (and apparently last) finalist in the mix for the job.

9:37am: The Marlins are continuing to narrow the field in their search for manager Don Mattingly’s successor and have deemed a handful of names to be finalists in their search. Per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro and Astros bench coach Joe Espada are among a “small field” of finalists in Miami. Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds Cardinals bench coach Skip Schumaker to the list of finalists.

Both Quatraro and Espada were considered finalists in last offseason’s Mets managerial search, before the team ultimately hired a more experienced option in the form of veteran Buck Showalter. The Marlins, it seems, are taking a different approach; the entire group of known candidates to have interviewed in Miami would be first-time managers at the big league level. Quatraro and Espada have both interviewed with at least five teams for managerial vacancies in recent years.

Schumaker, meanwhile, is a fast-rising name in the coaching ranks himself. The former big league utilityman was playing in the Majors as recently as 2015 and landed his first Major League coaching gig when the Padres named him first base coach in the 2017-18 offseason. San Diego eventually elevated him to the unusual title of “associate manager,” before the Cardinals, for whom he played eight Major League seasons, tabbed him as their new bench coach a year ago. Along the way, Schumaker has also interviewed for managerial vacancies with the Mets and Red Sox.

Other names known to have interviewed thus far include Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol and Phillies third base coach Dusty Wathan. Braves bench coach Walt Weiss reportedly declined an opportunity to interview, though the fact that there was even interest suggests that the Marlins aren’t dead-set on hiring a rookie skipper. Weiss spent four seasons as the Rockies’ manager from 2013-16.

Poll: Who’s Going To Win The World Series?

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Baseball’s new expanded playoff format has resulted in a unique David vs. Goliath matchup in the World Series.  In the first year of a sixth playoff team, the Phillies immediately became the first sixth seed to reach the Fall Classic, scoring upsets over the Cardinals, Braves, and Padres along the way to claim the National League pennant.  In the American League, the top-seeded Astros held serve and swept both the Mariners and Yankees for a perfect 7-0 record in these playoffs.

Ironically, the Phillies and Astros met in their final series of the regular season, and Philadelphia didn’t actually clinch its ticket to the postseason until a 3-0 win over Houston on October 3.  2022 was almost like two seasons in one for the Phillies, as the team held a 22-29 record when Joe Girardi was fired on June 3, yet the change to interim manager (and now full-time manager) Rob Thomson immediately provided a spark.  The Phils went 65-46 the rest of the way to earn their first postseason berth since 2011.

The roll has continued through October, with the Phillies knocking out three higher-seeded opponents due to a mix of strong pitching and timely hitting.  While several Philadelphia players have had heroic moments, the 2022 postseason is increasingly looking like Bryce Harper’s moment, as the slugger is batting .419/.444/.907 with five home runs during the playoffs.  Trailing the Padres 3-2 in the eighth inning of today’s Game 5, Harper crushed a two-run homer that put Philadelphia ahead for good in the 4-3 clinching victory, and unsurprisingly captured NLCS MVP honors.

Harper and the rest of the Phillies lineup will be challenged, however, by Houston’s dominant pitching staff.  The Astros have a collective 1.88 ERA over 72 postseason innings, with more strikeouts (89) than hits (46) and walks (21) combined.  The “weak link,” so to speak, is Justin Verlander with a 6.30 ERA over 10 innings, as Verlander was hit hard by the Mariners in Game 1 of the ALDS — however, the future Hall-of-Famer rebounded with a dominant six-inning performance against New York in Game 1 of the ALCS.

Considering how Jose Altuve and Kyle Tucker have been struggling at the plate throughout October, the scariest part of Houston’s 7-0 record is that the team is arguably not even firing on all cylinders.  The Astros cruised to a 106-56 mark during the regular season and is now back in the World Series for the second consecutive year, and the fourth time in six years.  The only Series triumph came in 2017, and since that title is forever shrouded in controversy by the sign-stealing scandal, winning another championship might be the only way for the Astros to escape that cloud and earn more recognition as a mini-dynasty.

Houston is 1-3 in previous trips to the World Series, while the Phillies are 2-5 with their last championship coming in 2008.  This isn’t the first postseason meeting between the two franchises — back when the Astros were a National League team, Philadelphia and Houston met in the 1980 NLCS.  In what was when a five-game maximum, the Phillies needed all five games to barely outlast the Astros in a series regarded as a classic.  The Phils went on to win their first-ever World Series crown that same year, and Philly fans can only hope that karma repeats itself in this latest matchup against the Astros.

Who’s your pick to win?

(poll link for app users)

Marlins Interview Astros’ Oz Ocampo For Assistant GM Position

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The Miami Marlins have interviewed Astros executive Oz Ocampo for an Assistant General Manager position, reports MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link).

With Derek Jeter’s surprise departure as the Marlins’ CEO back in February, and manager Don Mattingly’s announcement that he would not be returning to the Marlins for the 2023 season, General Manager Kim Ng has been tasked with both rebuilding the Marlins’ organization and roster. Miami currently has two other Assistant GMs — Daniel Greenlee, who joined the organization in 2017, and Brian Chattin, who has been with the organization for over a decade.

Ocampo began his baseball career as a scout for the Cardinals in the Dominican Republic. He then worked directly for the league in an International Baseball Operations role before joining the Astros and helping to develop their international scouting and player development pipeline, signing four key pitchers currently on the Astros’ roster: Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, and Jose Urquidy. He then left the Astros and joined the Pirates in a special assistant role before returning to Houston this past offseason.

Marlins Managerial Rumors: Espada, Quatraro, Weiss

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TODAY: Braves bench coach Walt Weiss turned down an interview request from the Marlins, according to Jon Heyman of The New York Post.  Weiss posted a 283-365 record as the Rockies’ manager from 2013-16, and he just completed his fourth season as Atlanta’s bench coach.  A 14-year Major League veteran best known for his time with the great Athletics teams of the late 80’s and early 90’s, Weiss spent a season with the Marlins in 1993, playing on the team’s inaugural roster.

OCTOBER 20: Astros bench coach Joe Espada and Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro have landed a second interview for the vacant Marlins managerial post, according to Craig Mish of SportsGrid. It was reported last week that Espada was interviewing for the position for the first time, but it’s the first reporting of the Marlins interest in Quatraro. Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol is the other known interviewee, although it’s unclear if he was asked back for a second time. Mish notes that a number of additional interviews have not been reported, so while there may well be a number of other candidates in play, the fact that Espada and Quatraro are interviewing a second time indicates they are starting to narrow down their search.

Both Espada and Quatraro have long been viewed as managers-in-waiting, and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times suggests Quatraro could also be in the mix for the vacant Royals, White Sox and Rangers jobs. Espada, meanwhile, has already interviewed for the White Sox position.

It’s not the first season that Espada, 47, has drawn managerial interest. The Puerto Rico native has been a respected member of the Astros coaching staff since 2017, and has had interest from the Mets, Cubs, A’s, Twins and Giants in recent years.

Similarly, Quatraro, 48, is heading into yet another off-season where his name is heavily linked with managerial posts. The A’s, Giants and Pirates were linked with Quatraro in recent years, while it was reported he was a finalist for the Mets position last year before they opted for Buck Showalter.

Astros Expected To Ask Dusty Baker Back For 2023 Season

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Dusty Baker’s contract is up whenever the Astros conclude their playoff run, marking the second straight year that the veteran manager has entered the offseason with uncertainty about his future.  However, it looks like Baker might be staying put in Houston, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post hears from sources that “Baker will be invited back to manage in 2023.”

The Astros have reached the ALCS in all three years of Baker’s tenure as manager, and are two wins away from their second consecutive American League pennant.  While he is still looking for his first World Series title as as manager, Baker’s 230-154 regular-season record with Houston has only further enhanced his case for enshrinement in Cooperstown, as only eight managers in baseball history have more wins than Baker’s 2093 career victories.

Despite this resume and Baker’s most recent track record of success, the Astros have been somewhat strangely hesitant to make a true long-term commitment, perhaps owing to Baker’s age (he turned 73 in June) and the unusual circumstances that led to his hiring.  After A.J. Hinch and Jeff Luhnow were fired in the wake of the sign-stealing scandal, Baker was hired just a few weeks later to replace Hinch, with James Click then brought in from the Rays front office to replace Luhnow as Houston’s general manager.

Baker was given a one-year contract with a club option for 2021, and the Astros made the early call to exercise that club option in July 2020.  No further extension came, however, and Baker’s next contract wasn’t finalized until after the Astros were eliminated in last year’s World Series — even then, Baker’s new deal just covered the 2022 campaign.

For his own part, Baker hasn’t shown any public displeasure with this lack of security, and most recently said that “I ain’t worried.  Worrying does no good,” when asked about his contract situation.  Heyman writes that Baker “is reportedly open to returning” as Houston’s manager, as it would make sense that Baker would want to remain in a comfortable environment with a winning team.  Hypothetically, Baker could be a candidate for any of the open managerial positions (with the Marlins, Royals, Rangers, or White Sox) since he’ll be a free agent, though the Astros are in a better position to contend in 2023 than any of those other four clubs.

Click’s contract status is another additional wrinkle.  The GM will also be out of contract after the season, and there have been rumors that the Astros might be looking to make a change in the front office, despite Click’s success in the job.  It doesn’t appear as though Click’s situation will impact Baker, however, as Heyman notes that the two men don’t have a particularly close relationship, even though this obviously hasn’t led to any issues with the Astros’ on-field success.  Astros owner Jim Crane reiterated in a text message to Heyman that he “will make a decision after the season is over on both contracts.  That has not changed.”

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