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Mariners, Astros Among Teams With Interest In Michael Conforto

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Michael Conforto has drawn the attention of a number of teams in the outfield market, and a pair of AL West contenders are apparently in the mix. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets the Mariners are showing interest in the former All-Star, while Brian McTaggart of MLB.com writes the Astros also have Conforto on their radar. Both New York teams and the Cubs have previously been tied to the Boras Corporation client.

There’s little surprise with either development. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times wrote last week that Seattle was open to adding another outfielder, and they’ve since been tied to Andrew Benintendi and Brandon Nimmo. A Washington native, Conforto has ties to the Pacific Northwest that could be an ancillary bonus for Seattle. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported last week the Astros were looking to bring in a lefty-swinging outfielder, making Conforto a sensible target. Houston was linked to him this past summer, but no deal materialized at the time.

Conforto’s a buy-low target for outfield-needy clubs. He posted an excellent .265/.369/.495 line in just shy of 2000 plate appearances for the Mets from 2017-20. After a .232/.344/.384 showing during his platform campaign in 2021, Conforto lingered on the open market upon turning down a qualifying offer from New York. He reportedly suffered a right shoulder injury during the lockout, and he underwent surgery in April. Conforto was able to begin swinging a few months later, but the rehab process prevented him from throwing during the season. While there was some chatter he could sign with a team late in the 2022 season to serve as a designated hitter or bench bat, that didn’t come to pass.

On the heels of that lost season, Scott Boras has suggested Conforto is looking for a two-year guarantee that allows him to opt out after the first season. If that doesn’t prove attainable, it stands to reason he could pivot to a straight one-year deal to get back to free agency at the end of next year. There’s no longer any draft compensation attached to Conforto, so teams figure to be more willing to take a shot on him returning to form than they were this past spring after the shoulder injury.

It seems the 29-year-old (30 next March) continues to progress well from the surgery. Conforto has long since been cleared to begin hitting, and Morosi tweeted this afternoon he’s also begun a throwing program. There doesn’t figure to be much issue building his arm back into game shape by the time Spring Training rolls around, positioning him back in the corner outfield mix for clubs.

The Mariners have two outfield spots accounted for in Julio Rodríguez and Teoscar Hernández, but they’re open to upgrades over the contingent of Jesse Winker, Taylor Trammell, Jarred Kelenic and Sam Haggerty in left field and at designated hitter. The Astros have Kyle Tucker locked into right field, while Chas McCormick has the inside track on the center field job. Yordan Alvarez is slated to split time between left field and designated hitter, but Houston’s scoring the market for another lefty bat to serve the role Michael Brantley filled the past few seasons.

Brantley is coming off shoulder surgery of his own — his procedure coming in August. McTaggart suggests the club isn’t closing the door on retaining Brantley for a fifth season, but there’s a bit more uncertainty on the five-time All-Star’s status since he underwent his surgery more recently than Conforto has.

Cubs Interested In Michael Conforto, Cody Bellinger

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Outfielders Michael Conforto and Cody Bellinger are both risky bets with huge payoff potential and it seems the Cubs are interested in putting some money down there. Jon Heyman of The New York Post connects the Cubs to both of them and also adds the Astros to the lengthy list of Bellinger suitors.

Conforto, 30 in March, is a real wild card since he had an excellent run of play from 2017 to 2020 but has had a frustrating time since then. He hit 97 home runs during that strong period, producing an overall batting line of .265/.369/.496. That production was 33% better than the league average hitter, as evidenced by his 133 wRC+.

He slumped in 2021 by hitting just 14 homers and slashing .232/.344/.384. His 106 wRC+ shows that he was still a bit above average, but it was a noticeable drop from his previous output. He received and rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets, still believing he could find a bigger payday despite the down season. Unfortunately, he injured his shoulder during the lockout, requiring surgery that wiped out his 2022 entirely.

After one down year and a lost campaign, it’s difficult to know what to expect from Conforto going forward. That uncertainty will put a damper on his market but he’ll surely find teams interested in taking a shot, hoping he can return to the kind of hitter he was a few years ago. He’s already been connected to the Yankees and Mets this offseason and has connected to the Blue Jays prior to that.

Bellinger, 27, is a somewhat similar case, as he also had a strong four-year run from 2017 to 2020, including an MVP season in 2019. Over that stretch, Bellinger hit 123 home runs and slashed .273/.364/.547 for a wRC+ of 137. However, he injured his shoulder during the 2020 postseason on an ill-advised celebration and hasn’t been himself since. He hit a dismal .165/.240/.302 in 2021 and rebounded slightly to .210/.265/.389 in 2022, but that latter line was still well below average.

Bellinger comes with a higher floor than Conforto as his speed and defense can make him valuable even if his bat doesn’t rebound. FanGraphs calculated him to be worth 1.7 wins above replacement this year, even with the tepid offensive production. Conforto, however, doesn’t rate out as well in those departments and really needs to produce at the plate in order to be useful.

For the Cubs, it’s not shocking to see that they are considering adding an outfielder with their lack of clarity on the grass. Seiya Suzuki is the only long-term piece in place right now, as he has four years remaining on his contract and should have right field locked down. In left field, Ian Happ should be the everyday option but he is just one year away from reaching free agency. In center field, the Cubs used a handful of different options in 2022 with no one securing the job. They also don’t have an obvious designated hitter at the moment, making it easy to slot another potent bat into their lineup.

After rebuilding in recent years, the Cubs have been rumored to be considering more aggressive spending in order to help push back to contention. They delivered on that last year to a degree, giving multi-year deals to Suzuki and Marcus Stroman, in addition to a batch of one-year contracts. Neither Bellinger nor Conforto will require top-of-the-market deals, given their recent struggles. Bellinger is reportedly looking for a one-year deal in order to hopefully return to free agency with a stronger platform season. Conforto is apparently looking for a deal somewhat similar to what Carlos Rodón got from the Giants, a two-year guarantee that allows him to opt out if he has a strong showing in year one.

The Cubs should have lots of payroll room to work with, as they are currently pegged at about $127MM, per Roster Resource. That’s well shy of 2022’s $143MM Opening Day figure and their franchise high of $203MM from 2019, with figures from Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’ve been rumored to be in the market for the top free agent shortstops, but it’s possible that they end up losing out to clubs that are more firmly in win-now mode. Whether they succeed in that area or not, turning a 74-win team into a contender in one offseason is a challenge. Taking short-term fliers on bounceback candidates like Conforto and Bellinger makes plenty of sense, as they have the potential to both bolster the club’s chances in 2023 while also potentially becoming trade candidates at next year’s deadline if they fall back in the standings again.

As for the Astros, it was recently reported that they are targeting left-handed hitting outfielders. This is in part due to the fact that Michael Brantley is now a free agent, leaving them with Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker as the only left-handers locked into the lineup. Bellinger would help balance the lineup but, as mentioned, there’s uncertainty in what kind of production he’s likely to provide. The Astros have avoided lengthy commitments in recent years, as the last free agent they signed to a deal longer than two years was Josh Reddick back in 2016.

Bellinger’s desire for a one-year deal certainly fits their M.O., and his defensive prowess would afford the club opportunities. Alvarez got into 56 games in left field this year, a personal high for him. It’s possible he continues pushing that number but he’s still likely to spend at least some time as the designated hitter. Chas McCormick is a strong defender in center field but he hits from the right side, meaning he and Bellinger could potentially be deployed in a platoon. McCormick hit .340/.409/.563 against lefties last year has a career 125 wRC+ versus righties but just a 99 against southpaws. On days when Alvarez is the DH, McCormick and Bellinger taking the field next to Tucker could give the club a very strong defensive trio.

Houston’s payroll is actually not far off from last year’s, as Roster Resource currently has them around $164MM. That’s just $11MM shy of last year’s $175MM Opening Day figure, per Cot’s. Even a modest deal that Bellinger will likely require would get them closer to or over last year’s number, but it wouldn’t be surprising if they push their spending up on the heels of a World Series victory.

Heyman says that there are 11 teams in the Bellinger sweepstakes, which also includes known suitors in the Yankees, Giants, Rockies and Blue Jays.

Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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After a few years of near-misses, the Astros returned to the top of the league in 2022 by claiming their second title in franchise history. They’ve won 100-plus games in four of the last five full seasons and will be one of the top handful of championship favorites next season. Expectations are high as ever in Houston, but months of tension in the front office culminated in a change atop baseball operations just days after their parade. The Astros are suddenly one of the league’s more unpredictable teams going into the offseason — but there’s no question any moves are going to be geared towards maximizing their chances of a repeat.

Guaranteed Contracts

Other commitments: $2MM buyout on Pedro Báez option, $1MM buyout on Will Smith option, $250K buyout on Trey Mancini option

Total future commitments: $373.75MM
Total 2023 commitments: $121.25MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis, projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tendered: Josh James

Total arbitration projection: $27.1MM

Free Agents

For a remarkable sixth straight season, the Astros advanced to the AL Championship Series in 2022. The past four years had seen the season end on a disappointing note, with a defeat in either the ALCS or the World Series. That wasn’t to be this year, as the 106-win team swept the Yankees to secure the fifth pennant in franchise history. They finished the job with three straight wins after going down 2-1 against the Phillies, claiming the organization’s second World Series title.

With that kind of success, one would assume the good vibes would continue into the offseason. Towards the end of the year, however, reports emerged about tension behind the scenes — primarily between owner Jim Crane and general manager James Click. As Houston’s lead baseball executive saw his contract expire, the Astros entered the offseason with uncertainty about their long-term direction. Things came to a head when Crane offered Click a one-year contract extension — a proposal below the norm for an executive whose team had accomplished what the Astros have over the past three seasons. Click declined, and the Astros let him go thereafter.

For the first time in three-quarters of a century, the defending World Series winners parted with their baseball operations leader. Houston enters the offseason without a GM, and it doesn’t seem as if they’re in any rush to fill the vacancy. Crane told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com last week he doesn’t envision hiring a new GM until after the calendar flips to 2023. In the meantime, the atypical front office structure sees Crane intricately involved in baseball decision-making. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported Crane personally oversaw the team’s first major offseason roster move — re-signing free agent reliever Rafael Montero on a three-year, $34.5MM deal that fairly easily surpassed expectations. Assistant GM’s Bill Firkus, Andrew Ball and Charles Cook are on hand to help shoulder day-to-day responsibilities.

There’s not a ton of clarity about how exactly things are playing out in the offices at Minute Maid Park, but it seems Crane is as or more involved in key decisions than any of his ownership peers. That’s not entirely new — he directly negotiated a contract with Justin Verlander last offseason and reportedly killed a deadline agreement to bring in Willson Contreras from the Cubs — but it makes Houston one of the more fascinating teams to watch.

Crane and his front office have plenty of decisions to make with a handful of key free agents. They’re already brought back Montero, but perhaps the biggest question is the same one they faced last winter: do they retain Verlander? They did so last year, but the circumstances are far different this time around. Last year, the future Hall of Famer was coming off nearly two full seasons lost to Tommy John surgery. They monitored his progress and guaranteed him $25MM on a bounceback, but they’d have to offer up quite a bit more to keep him in 2023 and beyond. Verlander responded to Houston’s gesture of faith with a Cy Young-winning campaign that saw him lead the majors with a 1.75 ERA through 175 innings.

Now, Verlander’s looking at multi-year offers that easily beat $25MM annually. Crane suggested to McTaggart that Verlander is seeking a pact rivaling or topping the three-year, $130MM deal secured by Max Scherzer last winter. Those comments could get the team in some hot water with the MLB Players Association — the CBA prohibits club personnel from airing a free agent’s asking price while speaking with the media — but it’s not an especially surprising revelation. Scherzer is the closest comparable for a recent aging, future Hall of Fame pitcher still working near the top of his game, although Scherzer was more than two years younger during his free agent trip than Verlander is now.

Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle has already reported the Astros are reluctant to go to three guaranteed years as a result. That raises the real possibility of the nine-time All-Star heading elsewhere after four-plus seasons in Houston. Needless to say, losing a pitcher of Verlander’s caliber would weaken the roster, although the Astros are as well-equipped as a team could be to withstand his potential departure.

The rotation still runs six deep among promising options under club control. Framber Valdez finished fifth in Cy Young balloting this past season and is capable of fronting a staff. Cristian Javier struck out a third of his opponents en route to a 2.54 ERA through 148 2/3 innings. He’s perhaps not yet a household name nationally, but his performance through his first three big league campaigns has bordered on elite. Lance McCullers Jr. is an upper mid-rotation caliber starter when healthy, and he’s only headed into the second season of a five-year extension.

That’s still a strong top three, while Houston has a handful of options at the back end. Luis Garcia has a 3.60 ERA across 312 2/3 innings the last two years. He hit a rough patch midseason but righted the ship during the final few weeks and has a strong multi-year track record. José Urquidy — who would’ve gone to the Cubs had the Contreras trade been approved — is the favorite for the #5 job. He doesn’t have eye-popping velocity or whiff rates, but he’s an excellent control artist who hasn’t posted an ERA above 4.00 in any of his four MLB seasons. Urquidy is the least exciting of the group, but he’s a rock-solid 4th/5th starter for a contender.

Dealing either of Garcia or Urquidy this offseason could be on the table. The front office showed a willingness to move from their rotation surplus to address other areas of the roster in the Urquidy – Contreras tentative agreement at the deadline. Crane killed the deal, but that was reportedly more a reflection of the team’s preference not to unseat Martín Maldonado behind the dish than it was a declaration Urquidy was unavailable. Urquidy still has three seasons of arbitration control remaining and is projected for a modest $3.2MM salary in 2023; Garcia, who’s yet to reach arbitration and controllable for four years, would have very strong trade appeal if Houston fielded offers.

Of course, the team would have less rotation depth heading into 2023 if Verlander did sign elsewhere. That could point towards an increased desire to stockpile in-house pitching, but Houston also could try to expand the role for their top prospect. Hunter Brown reached the big leagues the final month of this year. He started just two of his first seven outings, but it stands to reason the team would prefer to give him a long-term shot in the starting staff. Brown was dominant in his early big league look, allowing just two runs with a 22:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 20 1/3 innings.

No team can count on their same five starters all season, and perhaps the Astros are content to begin with Brown in the bullpen before stretching him out as a starter when injuries inevitably dictate turning to a depth option. Players like J.P. France and Brandon Bielak are on hand as additional depth, and Houston could turn to a lower-cost free agent swingman in the Trevor Williams or Chad Kuhl mold if they wind up dealing one of their starters.

Trading a starter would only be as a means of adding immediate help somewhere on the roster with more uncertainty. A few of those stand out, largely because of possible free agent defections. The Astros are going to have to bring in a first baseman via free agency or trade. Yuli Gurriel and Trey Mancini are each free agents and didn’t play all that well in 2022 regardless. Houston was linked to Anthony Rizzo before he re-signed with the Yankees, and they’re a viable fit for any of Josh Bell, José Abreu, Luke Voit or even a lower-cost Gurriel reunion. On the trade market, players like Rhys Hoskins or Rowdy Tellez could be available.

The rest of the infield is already in place, with José Altuve, Jeremy Peña and Alex Bregman locked in around the diamond. Altuve and Bregman still have multiple seasons remaining on contract extensions, while Peña has five seasons of club control following a fantastic rookie year. Aledmys Díaz is headed to free agency, but the respective presences of Mauricio Dubón and David Hensley should allow him to seamlessly replace him in a utility role. The outfield is a little less settled, with left field the primary area of concern with Michael Brantley heading to free agency.

Yordan Alvarez split his time between designated hitter and left field this past season. The superstar slugger will be in the lineup every day in some capacity, though where is to be determined by the club’s offseason moves. Click had told Rome shortly after the season ended the club considered Alvarez a possible everyday left fielder; it remains to be seen whether a Crane-led front office feels the same way. There are a handful of decent mid-tier corner outfielders who should be available in either free agency or trade. Mitch Haniger, Andrew Benintendi and Jurickson Profar are on the open market, while players like Jesse Winker, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. or Alex Verdugo could find themselves on the move via trade.

If the Astros are content with Alvarez playing left field, that’d open up the possibility for a more impactful offensive splash via the DH. Houston has again been linked to Contreras — now a free agent, albeit one who’d cost a signing team a draft choice after turning down a qualifying offer — at the start of this winter. Signing Contreras is likely to require the kind of four-plus year commitment the Astros have been reluctant to make under Crane, but he’d add to an already elite lineup and have the ability to rotate between DH and catcher.

Houston has inquired about possible impact center fielders in recent years, even as Chas McCormick has done well when given opportunities. The 27-year-old had a great postseason on both sides of the ball and should have the inside track on the center field job, but Houston could at least kick the tires on potential upgrades there as well. Bryan Reynolds has been a longtime trade target for a number of teams but still seems unlikely to leave Pittsburgh. The Diamondbacks have a few young center field-capable outfielders and could have interest in Houston’s rotation depth in a deal involving Alek Thomas or Jake McCarthy. Brandon Nimmo is the only free agent center fielder (aside from Aaron Judge) who’s clearly better than McCormick; Houston will probably check in but seems an unlikely fit for a nine-figure investment in center field. There’s no need for any changes in the final outfield spot, with Kyle Tucker controllable for three more seasons in right.

Maldonado is back at catcher for another season after vesting a $4.5MM option in his contract. He’s a non-factor offensively, but he’s beloved in the Houston clubhouse for his leadership skills. They’ll need a complement to him with Christian Vázquez and Jason Castro both hitting free agency, although well-regarded prospect Yainer Díaz has a bat-first skillset that makes for an interesting complement. The Astros will probably at least dip into the market for a veteran depth player, and their reported interest in Contreras hints at the potential for a bigger splash to split time at catcher and DH.

The only other area of even moderate concern is in the bullpen. Houston had a top three relief corps in 2022, and bringing back Montero to join Héctor Neris, Ryne Stanek and Bryan Abreu in bridging the gap to All-Star closer Ryan Pressly does a lot of the heavy lifting. Houston’s very thin from the left side, though, with Blake Taylor and Parker Mushinski representing their top options. Will Smith performed well after being acquired from the Braves in a deadline swap for Jake Odorizzi. The Astros bought out a $13MM option that always looked a bit hefty, but a reunion on a lower salary could be plausible. Andrew Chafin, Taylor Rogers, Matt Moore and Joely Rodríguez are among the other free agent options who could be of interest.

There are a few ways the offseason could go, and the Astros should have the financial ability to build upon their already great roster. The club’s current 2023 payroll estimate is a bit above $160MM, around $15MM shy of this year’s Opening Day mark and almost $27MM below the franchise-record level, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Their luxury tax figure is in the $179MM range, according to Roster Resource, $54MM shy of the $233MM base tax threshold. Houston’s farm system has thinned out — both because of years of picking towards the back of the first round and draft pick forfeiture as punishment for the 2017 sign-stealing scheme. That could lead to a preference for free agency over the trade market, but the interest in a qualified free agent like Contreras suggests they’re not opposed to continue surrendering future value as they look to cement themselves as a true dynasty. Coming off the revenue bump associated with a World Series, Crane will surely be aggressive in attacking the roster’s weakest points in some capacity.

In so doing, he’ll provide insight into how he prefers to build a roster. Reports have suggested Crane took issue with Click’s patience, with the owner favoring more bold strikes. How that manifests itself in the coming months will be fascinating, but no matter the club’s ultimate offseason path, one thing is certain. The Astros have one of the sport’s best rosters and will go into 2023 as one of the favorites for another championship.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held an Astros-centric chat on 11-23-22. Click here to view the transcript.

Astros, Dixon Machado Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Astros have agreed to a minor league deal with infielder Dixon Machado and invited him to Major League Spring Training, per a team announcement.

A longtime Tigers farmhand, the now 30-year-old Machado saw Major League time in parts of four seasons with Detroit, hitting a combined .227/.285/.295 in 505 trips to the plate from 2015-18. Lack of MLB success notwithstanding, Machado has a solid track record in the upper minors and, after a nice showing with the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate in 2019, signed with the Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization in 2020.

Machado spent two years in the KBO, both with the Giants, and batted a combined .280/.359/.393 in 277 games there. That showing netted him a minor league pact to return to the Cubs, who flipped him to the Giants in a depth swap prior to the trade deadline. Machado went 3-for-15 in five big league games with San Francisco before being cut from the 40-man roster and heading back to Triple-A. Between the Cubs and Giants, Machado appeared in 121 Triple-A games and hit .291/.372/.391.

All told, Machado has logged parts of five seasons in Triple-A, batting .267/.347/.373 in 2222 plate appearances at the top minor league level. He’s a versatile infield defender with experience at all four positions, albeit just 43 innings at first base. The vast majority of Machado’s professional work has come at shortstop, where he’s logged more than 11,000 innings and drew positive reviews from scouting reports dating back to his prospect days.

The addition of Machado is generally a depth signing for the Astros, though with Aledmys Diaz reaching free agency this winter, the door for Machado to make the team and seize a utility role is perhaps a bit more open than it would’ve been in offseasons past. Mauricio Dubon and David Hensley are both on the 40-man roster and both give the ’Stros a potential utility infielder for 2023, though Hensley has minimal Major League experience.

Astros Eyeing Left-Handed Hitting Corner Outfielders

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The Astros have already crossed one item off their to-do list this winter, re-signing setup man Rafael Montero to a three-year pact. They reportedly had strong interest in first baseman Anthony Rizzo before he re-signed with the Yankees, and while they still have a hole at first base, they’re also in the market for a left-handed-hitting corner outfielder, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

Outfield help is a natural target for the Astros, who saw Michael Brantley go down with a season-ending shoulder injury this summer (which ultimately required surgery). He’s now a free agent, leaving the Astros’ projected outfield mix consisting of right fielder Kyle Tucker, center field options Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers, and designated hitter/occasional left fielder Yordan Alvarez.

The 25-year-old Alvarez did log a career-high 467 innings in left field this season, and if the team were to commit to playing him more regularly there, the search could expand to include lefty-swinging corner outfielders and designated hitters. That said, Alvarez has had multiple knee surgeries in the past, despite his youth, so it’s sensible enough if the team prefers to limit his time on the field to help keep his bat in the lineup.

Brantley himself would ostensibly be an option, of course. He said late in the season that he expects to be ready for Spring Training, and if that’s the case, there aren’t many better bets in the “professional hitter” category than the five-time All-Star. Over the past five seasons, Brantley has batted a combined .307/.367/.465 with 57 home runs, 134 doubles and eight triples in 2240 plate appearances. He’s fanned in just 10.6% of those trips to the plate and walked at an eight percent clip as well.

Generally speaking, it’s not a great free-agent market for outfielders this winter. Aaron Judge, of course, is the top free agent, while center fielder Brandon Nimmo ranks a distant second. Beyond that pair, there are plenty of options to peruse, but the majority come with some degree of red flag.

If Houston prefers to pursue a younger option, any of Andrew Benintendi, Cody Bellinger or Joey Gallo could make sense — although the latter two are particularly dependent on Houston’s appetite for taking on a rebound candidate. Both Gallo and Bellinger have seen their once prodigious offensive profiles tank in recent seasons. Bellinger is likely available on a one-year deal as he looks to rebuild some stock. Benintendi, meanwhile, saw his season end on Sept. 2 due to a broken hamate bone. Masataka Yoshida, star outfielder for Japan’s Orix Buffaloes, will reportedly be posted for MLB clubs, but whether his outstanding production in NPB will carry over to MLB is a total unknown at this point.

Alternatives include longtime D-backs outfielder David Peralta, now-former Padres left fielder Jurickson Profar and well-traveled Corey Dickerson. Peralta is 35 and coming off a tepid finish to the 2022 season with the Rays. Profar’s age, bat-to-ball skills and former prospect status could all be appealing, but a .237/.331/.364 slash over the past two seasons isn’t especially eye-catching. Dickerson has had similar production but in a part-time role and is three years older.

The trade market, of course, presents myriad opportunities. The division-rival Mariners were known to be exploring trades involving Jesse Winker earlier this month. Minnesota’s Max Kepler is an oft-speculated trade candidate this winter, and switch-hitters Ian Happ (Cubs) and Anthony Santander (Orioles) were both discussed by their respective clubs in the weeks leading up  to this past summer’s trade deadline.

Whatever path the ’Stros take, some degree of outfield addition feels like a foregone conclusion. The 26-year-old Meyers hit just .227/.269/.313 in his return from last offseason’s shoulder surgery. McCormick, 27, posted solid overall numbers, but the overwhelming majority of his production came against left-handed pitchers; he hit .340/.409/.563 against southpaws but only .207/.301/.344 against fellow righties. Tucker, Meyers, McCormick, Alvarez and utilityman Mauricio Dubon are the only outfielders on the 40-man roster at present. Tucker and Alvarez are the only left-handed hitters who are locked into lineup spots.

Astros Sign Hitting Coach Alex Cintron To Multi-Year Extension

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The Astros have taken some steps towards preserving continuity on the coaching staff. Co-hitting coaches Alex Cintrón and Troy Snitker are returning in the same roles, they informed reporters (including Mark Berman of Fox 26 and Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports that Cintrón signed an extension that keeps him under contract through 2025.

The multi-year deal for Cintrón could be tied to some interest from a competitor. Rome writes the 43-year-old interviewed with the Blue Jays in their search for a bench coach to work alongside skipper John Schneider. His new deal with Houston forecloses the possibility of him heading north of the border. The Cintrón/Snitker pairing has worked together since the start of the 2019 season, guiding an extremely talented lineup to excellent results. Houston trails only the Dodgers in runs scored over the last four years. They were eighth in runs this past season, and they placed seventh in on-base percentage (.319) and fifth in slugging (.424).

Rome also reports the Astros have agreed to a new deal with pitching coach Josh Miller. He’ll be back for a second season. Miller was promoted to co-pitching coach alongside Bill Murphy after the departure of Brent Strom last offseason. The duo inherited an excellent pitching infrastructure and plenty of talent, but they also seem to have taken on their greater responsibilities very well. Only the Dodgers allowed fewer runs this year, while the Mets were the sole team to beat Astros pitchers’ 26% strikeout rate. The contract status of Murphy hasn’t yet been reported.

Other than Murphy, most of the key members of the coaching staff are slated to return on the heels of the World Series win. Dusty Baker will get a fourth season at the helm, and he’ll be joined by his co-hitting coaches and at least one of this past season’s pitching coaches. Bench coach Joe Espada and first base Omar López were previously reported to be back themselves.

American League Non-Tenders: 11/18/22

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The deadline to tender contract to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm Central. Here’s a rundown of the players on American League teams that have been non-tendered today. This post will be updated as more decisions are revealed.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all arb-eligible players last month. Onto the transactions…

Latest Transactions

  • The Mariners announced that they have non-tendered three players: catchers Brian O’Keefe and Luis Torrens, as well as righty Luke Weaver. Weaver was just claimed off waivers from the Royals a few weeks ago but will now become a free agent.
  • The White Sox announced three non-tenders: outfielders Adam Engel and Mark Payton, as well as infielder Danny Mendick. Engel is generally considered a strong defensive outfielder but he struggled at the plate in 2022. Mendick played all over the diamond while hitting .289/.343/.443 for a wRC+ of 125.
  • The Guardians announced they have non-tendered lefty Anthony Gose and catcher Luke Maile. Gose was designated for assignment earlier in the week. Maile got into 76 games hit at a below-average level with roughly average defensive marks.
  • The Angels announced four non-tenders: lefties Jhonathan Diaz and Rob Zastryzny, as well as righties Touki Toussaint and Nash Walters. The latter three names were designated for assignment a few days ago.
  • The Rays have non-tendered Ryan Yarbrough, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Tampa designated him for assignment earlier in the week.
  • The Blue Jays announced that they have non-tendered outfielders Raimel Tapia and Bradley Zimmer, as well as infielder Vinny Capra. The two former names were designated for assignment a few days ago.

Earlier Moves

  • The Athletics announced that they did not tender contracts to three players: right-hander Deolis Guerra, left-hander Jared Koenig and infielder David MacKinnon. Guerra is the most seasoned of the trio, having made his MLB debut back in 2015 and made 136 appearances. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John surgery in April, missing the entire 2022 campaign and possibly some of 2023 as well.
  • The Red Sox are non-tendering outfielder/first-baseman Franchy Cordero, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Cordero appeared in 84 games for the Red Sox this past season, but hit just .219/.300/.397 with eight home runs while grading out very poorly on defense.  The Sox have also non-tendered infielder Yu Chang, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. The versatile infielder began the year with the Guardians but subsequently went to the Pirates in a trade, then went to the Rays and Red Sox on waiver claims. Across those four teams, he hit .208/.289/.315 for a wRC+ of 78.
  • The Astros will part ways with reliever Josh James, as Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports they’re expected to non-tender him tonight. He spent the entire 2022 campaign in the minors, and underwent flexor tendon surgery in October and is without a timetable to return.
  • The Rangers announced that right-hander Nick Snyder has not been tendered a contract. He only has 4 2/3 innings of MLB experience over the past couple of seasons. He spent most of 2022 in Triple-A, posting a 4.97 ERA over 38 innings, though with a 30.9% strikeout rate.
  • The Royals opted to non-tender lefty Jake Brentz and right-hander Nate Webb, the team announced. That’s no surprise, as both players were designated for assignment earlier this week. They lost their 40-man roster spots as a result, but the non-tender means Kansas City won’t need to run them through waivers before sending them directly to free agency. Anne Rogers of MLB.com tweets that Kansas City is tendering contracts to the rest of their arbitration class, including Brad Keller and Amir Garrett — each of whom seemed to have a small chance of being cut loose after tough seasons.

Aaron Judge Wins AL MVP

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AL home run record holder Aaron Judge has been named the league’s Most Valuable Player, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. Angels two-way star Shohei Ohtani finished second, followed by Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez.

Judge has been the favorite to claim the award since a few weeks into the year. The herculean slugger popped six home runs in the season’s first month and only picked up the pace from there. He topped double-digits in longballs in each of the next three months before collecting 20 more from August onwards. His homer pace hit a bit of a lull once he reached 60 and pulled within one of Roger Maris with a bit more than two weeks to play, but Judge eventually claimed the record with blasts off Tim Mayza and Jesús Tinoco.

It was an obviously historic season from a power perspective, but the three-time Silver Slugger winner’s achievements went beyond the longball. He flirted with a Triple Crown late in the season and ultimately finished second among AL qualifiers with a .311 batting average. His .425 on-base percentage paced the circuit, and his .686 slugging mark was well better than Alvarez’s second-place .613 figure. He also played a significant amount of innings in center field, adequately moving to the outfield’s most demanding position after a career spent mostly in right field.

Judge helped the Yankees to 99 wins and an American League East crown. He earned his fourth career All-Star selection, and finished in the top five in MVP balloting for the third time. It’s his first time winning the award, and it couldn’t have come at a better time personally. Judge is a first-time free agent, and his ultimate destination will be one of the storylines of the winter.

Ohtani comes in second place the year after winning his first MVP. An incomparable player, Ohtani hit 34 homers and posted a .273/.356/.519 line as a designated hitter. The right-hander also tossed a career-high 166 innings, posting a 2.33 ERA with an AL-leading 33.2% strikeout rate in 28 starts. On his pitching accomplishments alone, he finished fourth in Cy Young balloting. That’s nothing short of remarkable for a player who also finished fifth in slugging and fourth in longballs in the American League. If not for an historic offensive season from Judge, Ohtani would likely have flown to a second straight MVP.

Judge received 28 of 30 first-place votes, with Ohtani collecting the other two. They were 1-2 in some order on every ballot, while Alvarez picked up 22 third-place nods. The Houston star hit .306/.406/.613, trailing only Judge among AL players in on-base and slugging. He finished third in homers and earned his first All-Star selection and MVP finalist appearance.

Guardians third baseman José Ramírez secured six third-place votes and finished fourth overall. Astros second baseman José Altuve came in fifth, edging out Cleveland second baseman Andrés Giménez (the only player besides Alvarez and Ramírez to secure any third-place votes). Julio Rodríguez, Mike Trout, Xander Bogaerts and Cy Young winner Justin Verlander rounded out the top ten.

Full voting breakdown available here.

Astros To Re-Sign Rafael Montero

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November 17: Montero’s contract will see him earn $11.5MM in all three years, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle.

November 12: Rafael Montero and the Astros are in agreement on a three-year, $34.5MM deal, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Montero is the third elite reliever to fall off the board early, after the Padres re-signed Robert Suarez and the Mets held on to Edwin Diaz.

It’s a remarkable deal considering Montero has amassed just 0.1 bWAR over his career and had a 6.39 ERA just in 2021, but speaks to how good he’s looked since landing in Houston, and the early value teams are placing on high-end relief pitching.

Montero, 32, tossed 68 1/3 innings out of Houston’s pen this year in addition to six innings thrown late last year after coming over from Seattle, posting a 2.18 ERA in that time with a 26.8% strikeout rate and an 8.6% walk rate. He’d posted an ugly 7.27 ERA (albeit with decent peripherals) in Seattle last year, before the Astros acquired him as part of the Kendall Graveman deal. In Houston, he’s leaned more heavily on his fastball, and cut back on his sinker and slider usage. Hitters have found it incredibly difficult to square up his pitches, and he gave up just three home runs all year (and one more in the playoffs) and ranked in the 91st percentile for average exit velocity.

It’s certainly worth nothing that this isn’t the first time Montero has had a bit of success, only to crash not long after. The Rangers inked him to a minor league deal in 2019 after four unsuccessful years with the Mets that concluded with Tommy John surgery prior to the ’18 campaign. He turned into a valuable member of the Rangers bullpen that year, throwing 29 innings of 2.28 ERA ball. He regressed a bit in 2020, but the Rangers were still able to flip him to the Mariners for a couple of prospects – Andres Mesa and Jose Corniell – prior to the 2021 campaign, but things would unravel for him in Seattle.

While it’s easy to look at that 2019 season with the Rangers and draw similarities to his past season with the Astros in that it’s an isolated strong season amongst a wider portfolio of poor output, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest he’s turned a corner for good. For instance, in 2019 his peripherals were far less impressive than his actual output, and it was over a much smaller sample size (29 innings against 74 1/3 in Houston). Ultimately though, dishing out any sort of multi-year free agency deal to relievers comes with a large degree of risk, and given how tough relievers’ future performance is to predict, there’s no guarantees Montero performs like he did in 2022 over the life of this deal.

This deal locks up a key contributor from their World Series winning team, but it’s curious to see a major deal like this done one day after the team moved on from their general manager. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reported that assistant GM Andrew Ball and senior director of baseball strategy Bill Firkus are running the day-to-day operations for the Astros after the departure of James Click, although Rome adds that that doesn’t necessarily mean those two were responsible for the Montero deal.

Houston’s projected payroll now sits at $164MM per RosterResource, about $15MM shy of their 2022 mark. There’s every chance they bring back Justin Verlander, while they could seek additions at center field, catcher and first base, so there’s a strong possibility their payroll comfortably eclipses the $179MM mark from 2022.

Their bullpen was one of the strengths of their championship roster this past season, and with the likes of Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu, Ryne Stanek, Hector Neris and the now-returning Montero it’s shaping up to be one of the best in baseball again.

It also bodes well for other top relievers on the market. Montero’s $34.5MM deal follows on from Suarez’ five-year, $46MM contract with the Padres and Diaz’s record-breaking five-year, $102MM deal with the Mets. On the whole, relievers are being paid handsomely to kick off free agency this year, and the agents of pitchers like Taylor Rogers and Kenley Jansen will surely be pointing teams to these deals as price points when going into negotiations.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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