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Catching Notes: Cubs, Murphy, Astros, Contreras, Cardinals

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9:45PM: The Cubs are also showing interest in Murphy, as per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link).

8:56PM: The Astros are the latest team to explore a trade for Athletics catcher Sean Murphy, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link).  Houston joins a lengthy list of suitors known to include such teams as the Guardians, Twins, White Sox, Red Sox, Rays, and Cardinals.

The A’s are surely commanding a high price tag in any Murphy deal, and the cost could possibly be a little steeper for one of Oakland’s AL West rivals.  Nonetheless, the Astros have a good amount of young talent that could catch the Athletics’ interest, and Houston might feel the acquisition cost is worth it to add a former Gold Glover who is under control through the 2025 season.

Defense and game-calling has long been a priority behind the plate for the Astros, which is why the team has stuck with Martin Maldonado even though Maldonado’s offense has sharply fallen off in the last two seasons.  However, the Astros did acquire Christian Vazquez at last year’s trade deadline, and Vazquez, Willson Contreras, and now Murphy has emerged on Houston’s radar this offseason.  Whereas Contreras could be fit into the lineup as a DH or as a left fielder, Murphy has played exclusively as a catcher during his pro career, and moving a strong defender like Murphy away from the catcher’s position could be seen as a bit of a waste.

That said, the Astros might also simply install Murphy as the regular catcher and move Maldonado into more of a clear backup role.  Maldonado is only under contract through the 2023 season, and thus Murphy provides more of a longer-term answer behind the plate.

If Houston didn’t want to meet Oakland’s demands for Murphy, signing Contreras would cost only money and a compensatory draft pick rather than prospect depth, which might be preferable for the Astros in the bigger picture.  Contreras has long been of interest to the Astros, and former general manager James Click had arranged a trade at the deadline that would have sent Jose Urquidy to the Cubs for Contreras, but Houston owner Jim Crane vetoed the proposed deal on advice from manager Dusty Baker.

With the Astros now set to meet with Contreras as a free agent, Baker clarified his objection to the midseason deal.  “It’s not that I didn’t want him, at the time, I just didn’t think it was the proper fit with two months to go in the season,” Baker told The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome and other reporters today.  “You have to learn the pitching staff, how we go about doing things, and I didn’t feel there was enough time to do that.”

Obtaining a more defensively-sound catcher like Vazquez was apparently more acceptable in Baker’s view, and it also certainly helped that Vazquez only cost the Astros two position-player prospects (Enmanuel Valdez and Wilyer Abreu) rather than a solid pitcher like Urquidy.  Since Justin Verlander has now left the Astros to sign with the Mets, Urquidy has some added importance to an Astros rotation that is still quite strong, even without the AL Cy Young Award winner.

While the catching market is usually pretty thin, there have been plenty of rumblings about backstops this winter, given the presence of Contreras and Vazquez in the free agent market, as well as major trade chips (i.e. Murphy, or the Blue Jays’ and Braves’ catchers) all perhaps in play.  Since Yadier Molina has now retired, the Cardinals have one of the more pressing needs at the position, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that trading for Murphy “is atop their list” among the many options.  If the Cards traded for a catcher rather than spending bigger to sign a free agent like Contreras, Goold speculates that the team could then re-allocate any extra budget space towards a free agent, potentially even one of the remaining top shortstops like Dansby Swanson.

Padres, D-Backs, Guardians Among Teams Interested In Christian Vazquez

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8:08pm: The Diamondbacks and Giants are also in the mix for Vázquez, Abraham reports (on Twitter). The Boston Globe writer also suggests he’s likely to find at least three years and floats the possibility of a four-year pact materializing.

4:07pm: Christian Vázquez is the second-best catcher available in free agency this offseason, the top option for teams not willing to meet a much loftier asking price and surrender a draft choice for Willson Contreras. It’s little surprise the two-time World Series winner is generating a fair bit of attention from clubs, with Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reporting the Padres, Guardians and Twins are all in the mix. Rosenthal also lists the Cubs and Cardinals — each of whom has been previously linked to the veteran backstop — and the incumbent Astros as teams in the bidding.

None of the new suitors is all that surprising, as they could each stand to upgrade behind the dish. That’s arguably not as pressing a concern for San Diego as it may be for some other teams, as the Friars do have Austin Nola and Luis Campusano as a viable catching tandem. Neither player should necessarily be a roadblock to surveying the market for a team as aggressively motivated to win now as San Diego.

Nola, 33 this month, has spent two-plus seasons in Southern California. He looked like a late-blooming breakout player with the Mariners in 2019-20, leading San Diego to acquire him at the 2020 deadline in a now-regrettable swap that landed Ty France, Taylor Trammell and Andrés Muñoz in Seattle. Nola’s offensive production has dropped off since the trade, and he owns a .254/.327/.348 line in 665 plate appearances as a Padre. That’s fine production for a catcher but it’s not overwhelming, with Vázquez coming off a superior .274/.315/.399 showing. Campusano is a longtime top prospect with a strong Triple-A track record, but he has all of 28 MLB games under his belt.

Pursuing Vázquez could also be a way for the Friars to more indirectly upgrade their roster, as signing a catcher would free them up to market Nola or Campusano in trade talks. The 24-year-old Campusano still has six seasons of remaining club control and would have a fair bit of value on the trade market, able to appeal to win-now clubs and teams with further off contention windows alike. Nola has three seasons of arbitration-eligibility and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $2.2MM salary next season. He’s not as appealing as Campusano but could still attract some attention if the Friars made him available.

The Guardians, meanwhile, are certain to add a catcher this offseason. Austin Hedges hit free agency, leaving the unproven Bryan Lavastida and Bo Naylor as the only backstops on the 40-man roster. Naylor is a highly-regarded prospect, but turning everyday reps behind the dish over to a 23-year-old could be too risky for a team looking to defend their AL Central title. The Guardians have been one of the more frequently mentioned suitors for A’s backstop Sean Murphy, who seems highly likely to be dealt. Vázquez isn’t that caliber of player, but he wouldn’t force the team to surrender any young talent to add him. A highly-regarded game-caller with consistently strong defensive metrics and a plus arm, Vázquez would be a sensible target for a Cleveland team that has prioritized catcher defense.

The Twins have made no secret of their desire to add another catcher to pair with 25-year-old Ryan Jeffers. Both president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine have spoken of the appeal of bringing in another catcher capable of starting 100-plus games to take some of the responsibility off Jeffers. They’re not so much trying to supplant their internal catcher as find a strong complement to him. Vázquez would surely qualify, although it’s unclear if the Twins are prepared to offer him as many at-bats as he’d like.

Late in the season, Vázquez suggested to Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe he’d prioritize finding a primary job in free agency. A longtime #1 catcher in Boston, he took a bit of a backseat to Martín Maldonado during his final couple months in Houston, starting just 23 games in the season’s final two months.

That desire for playing time would seem to reduce the chances Vázquez ends up back in Houston. Maldonado is under contract for another season and beloved for his ability to work with the pitching staff. The Astros have been wary of usurping him as their top catcher, and Rosenthal suggests they’d pursue a Vázquez reunion as part of a broader playing time split with Maldonado. Houston has been strongly linked to Contreras a few times this winter, with the thought that the longtime Cub’s bat plays well enough he could see extended time at designated hitter or in left field in addition to his time behind the plate. That’s less appealing for a glove-first player like Vázquez, who’s a good hitter for a catcher but a below-average offensive threat compared to players at less demanding positions.

There should be more than enough interest for Vázquez to find a #1 job again if that’s indeed his priority. He also looks in position to land a solid payday, as Rosenthal writes he’s likely to find a three-year commitment. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted the MDR Sports Management client for a three-year, $27MM contract.

Astros Interested In Andrew Benintendi

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Left field is something of a question mark for the Astros, but the team might be looking to fill the position with a former Gold Glover.  Houston has had some discussions with free agent Andrew Benintendi, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports.

With Jose Abreu already acquired and Rafael Montero re-signed, adding Benintendi would be the Astros’ latest step towards fortifying their roster for another World Series bid.  The team was already known to be looking for a left-handed hitting corner outfielder, to add both a bit more balance to a mostly right-handed lineup, and to provide more assurance in left field.  Should an everyday player like Benintendi be signed, Jake Meyers would likely split time with Chas McCormick in center field, while Yordan Alvarez might see the occasional game in left field but would continue to primarily work as the designated hitter.

Benintendi wouldn’t come cheap, as MLBTR projects the 28-year-old to land a four-year, $54MM deal.  This price point factors in Benintendi’s relatively young age as he enters the free agent market, as well as a skillset that makes him a pretty safe bet to be a productive (if not necessarily a star) player going forward.

Being “only” a productive player seems like a respectable middle ground for Benintendi, who looked like a potential superstar early in his career with the Red Sox but then almost like a lost cause in the wake of a brutal 2020 season.  Benintendi rebounded with solid showings with the Royals and Yankees the last two seasons, moving to New York at the trade deadline before his season was ended by hamate bone surgery in early September.

This isn’t to say that Bentenindi might not yet have another breakout ahead of him, especially if he can turn around his drastic power dropoff in 2022.  Even without much pop, Benintendi still had a 122 wRC+ and a .304/.373/.399 slash line over 521 plate appearances last season.  A .352 BABIP aided that production, but Benintendi did an excellent job of taking walks, avoiding strikeouts, and putting the ball in play.  Combining that offensive profile with above-average defense and solid baserunning made for a 2.8 fWAR season for Benintendi in 2022, the second-highest fWAR total of his seven MLB seasons.

The Astros have just under $198MM in luxury tax commitments for 2023, so if Benintendi was signed to something in the range of that projected $13.5MM average annual value, Houston would still have plenty of room under the $233MM tax threshold to make further moves.  Owner Jim Crane recently said that the Astros “certainly have the ability to go at or over” the threshold, and spending on multiple players (Abreu, and perhaps at least one of Benintendi or Willson Contreras) might be more of a preferable strategy than splurging on a short-term, high-AAV deal on Justin Verlander.

Astros Claim Rylan Bannon From Cubs

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The Astros announced they have claimed infielder Rylan Bannon off waivers from the Cubs.

Bannon, 27 in April, was drafted by the Dodgers but went to the Orioles in the 2018 trade that sent Manny Machado to the Dodgers. He stuck with the O’s until August of 2022 but has gone on a whirlwind adventure through the waiver wire since then. He has been claimed by the Dodgers, Braves, Cubs and now Astros in the past few months.

He has just five major league games under his belt so far but he fared well in the minors this year, which is surely what’s causing all of these waiver claims. In 99 Triple-A games this year, he walked in 14.4% of his plate appearances and produced a batting line of .249/.367/.421.

Bannon played both second and third base this year and still has one option year remaining, making him an attractive depth piece. The Astros recently saw utility player Aledmys Díaz hit free agency, perhaps spurring their interest in bolster their bench/depth infield options.

Jason Castro Announces Retirement

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Catcher Jason Castro took to Twitter today to announce he is retiring from major league baseball. The veteran spent parts of 12 seasons in the big leagues with the Astros, Twins, Angels and Padres. “Over the last 15 years of pro ball, I have been blessed with many incredible opportunities and have met so many people along the way that helped me achieve more than I could have ever imagined,” Castro said, before going on to thank all of the people who supported him along the way.

Castro was selected by the Astros out of Stanford with the 10th overall pick in the 2008 draft. He was considered one of the top 100 prospects in the game by Baseball America in 2009 and 2010, making his MLB debut in the latter season. Prospect evaluations at that time spoke highly of his defense and approach at the plate but questioned whether he would provide much power in the big leagues. During Spring Training in 2011, he suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament and a damaged meniscus, leading to him missing that entire season.

Once recovered, Castro got things back on track in 2012 and truly established himself in 2013, with that now seeming like the best season of his career. An All-Star that year, he hit 18 home runs, a number he was never able to match again. His final batting line on the year was .276/.350/.485, good enough for a wRC+ of 129, indicating he was 29% better than the league average hitter. When combined with his strong defensive work, he was worth 3.9 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs, the highest such total he ever managed.

In subsequent seasons, Castro settled in as a bit of a defensive specialist but one that wouldn’t be disastrous at the plate. From 2014 to 2017, his wRC+ fell between 80 and 94 in each campaign, fairly average for a backstop. When combined with his solid glovework, he was worth between 2.1 and 2.8 fWAR in each of those four seasons.

Between 2016 and 2017, Castro signed a three-year, $24.5MM contract with the Twins. As mentioned, the first year of that deal saw Castro continue as a solid glove-first backstop. However, injuries took a toll from there on out. In May of 2018, he was diagnosed with a torn meniscus in his right knee and had to undergo season-ending surgery. Though he continued to be a competent major leaguer, 2017 was the last season in which he played more than 80 games.

After spending some time with the Angels and Padres, Castro returned to where it all began by signing a two-year deal with the Astros prior to 2021. In August of this year, he required season-ending knee surgery, meaning that he wasn’t active for the club’s World Series victory. Nonetheless, it was a nice finishing touch for Castro’s career. As he says at the end of his retirement announcement, “What a way to end it.”

Castro hangs up his spikes with 952 games played, 678 hits, 166 doubles, 9 triples, 97 home runs, 368 runs scored, 328 runs batted in and 15.2 fWAR. MLBTR commends him on a fine career and wishes him the best in his post-playing endeavors.

Significant Gap Remains In Discussions Between Astros, Justin Verlander

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The Astros and Justin Verlander remain “far apart” in discussions about a new contract, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The nine-time All-Star is part of a trio of top free agent starters alongside Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodón.

The biggest stumbling block seems to be on the AL Cy Young winner’s desire for a third guaranteed season. Heyman writes that Verlander is seeking a deal around $130MM over three years — the same figure received by former teammate Max Scherzer from the Mets last winter. Houston owner Jim Crane similarly suggested Verlander was pointing to the Scherzer contract as precedent last month.

The Scherzer deal indeed seems the closest comparison to Verlander, although their situations aren’t perfectly analogous. While both are all-time great pitchers still pitching near the top of their games deeper into their careers, a three-year bet on Scherzer was probably easier for a team to stomach than that same term for Verlander. Scherzer signed in advance of his age-37 season, while the latter will be three years older at the start of his next contract. Verlander’s two years removed from a Tommy John procedure that cost him almost all of the 2020-21 campaigns, but he’s bounced back to pitch at pre-surgery levels this year. Scherzer had avoided any injury of that magnitude in the past decade, topping 170 innings in every full season since 2008 before this year.

While that seems to tip things in Scherzer’s favor, their pure performance track records are mostly without complaint. Verlander had a 1.75 ERA across 175 innings this past season; Scherzer posted a 2.46 mark in 2021. The latter missed more bats, striking out 34.1% of opponents against Verlander’s 27.8% mark. Fanning just under 28% of opponents is still excellent for a starting pitcher, though, and Verlander maintained top-tier control while sitting in the mid-90s with his fastball.

Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reported in November that Crane was reluctant to offer more than a two-year deal in the $60-70MM range. That’s shy of the Scherzer deal both by a year and a decent amount of annual salary ($30-35MM versus $43.333MM). It’s unclear if Houston has shown any willingness to raise their proposed salary figure in the few weeks since then, but Heyman reports they’re still opposed to a three-year guarantee.

Were Verlander to leave Houston, he’d draw no shortage of interest from the league’s big-market behemoths. He has already had meetings with the Dodgers and Mets, and Heyman has previously suggested the Yankees are also in the market.

Astros Notes: Abreu, Bagwell, Coaches

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For over a month now, it’s seemed like the White Sox would let Jose Abreu join a new organization and install Andrew Vaughn at first base. That became official this week, when Abreu signed with the Astros. However, the Sox didn’t just completely turn their back on him. “The White Sox made me an offer, it was a really good offer, but we’ll leave it at there,” Abreu said in his introductory press conference, per Chandler Rome of The Houston Chronicle.

Without any details, it’s hard to say exactly how hard the White Sox tried to retain Abreu, but it wasn’t enough either way. Abreu’s interest seems to have been quite wide, as it’s already been reported the Guardians made a three-year offer and he was also a top target of the Red Sox. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Padres also made a three-year offer while Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reports that the Marlins were at the table as well. Regardless, what’s done is done and Abreu is an Astro now.

One person who was involved in the deal coming together was former Astro Jeff Bagwell, as Crane said he and assistant general manager Bill Firkus flew to flew to Miami to negotiate the deal with Abreu, per Rome. It was recently reported amid the departure of general manager James Click that Bagwell has been working with the front office in some capacity, sitting in on meetings and things of that nature. Bagwell is apparently one of Crane’s most trusted advisors and it seems his level of engagement has increased in Click’s absence. However, it doesn’t appear as though it will go much farther, as he insisted to members of the media that he does not want the open general manager position and wouldn’t interview for it if asked, per Rome.

In other Astros news, Mark Berman of Fox 26 reports that Gary Pettis will return as the third base coach, with pitching coach Bill Murphy returning for 2023 as well. Pettis has been in that role since 2015 while Murphy just got his job title a year ago when Brent Strom parted ways with the club.

Astros To Meet With Willson Contreras

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Yesterday, the Astros introduced their new signee José Abreu and owner Jim Crane took some questions from the media. “We have to look at the catching, maybe another outfielder, and you can never have enough pitching,” Crane said, per Chandler Rome of The Houston Chronicle. In relation to the catching side of their pursuits, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the club plans to meet with Willson Contreras at the Winter Meetings, which go from this Sunday, December 4, to Wednesday, December 7.

Their interest is perfectly understandable, given that Contreras is one of the better catchers in the league, particularly at the plate. This year, he hit 22 home runs and slashed .243/.349/.466. His production has always been above average, but this year’s wRC+ of 132 was a career high. His defense isn’t rated as strongly, but that could make him a yin to the yang that is Martín Maldonado, who generally hits at a below average level but is stronger on the other side of the ball.

Contreras almost became an Astro months ago, as the club apparently agreed to acquire him from the Cubs in exchange for pitcher José Urquidy. However, Crane reportedly stepped in and put the kibosh on the deal. Instead, the Astros pivoted to Christian Vázquez, acquiring him from the Red Sox. Vázquez is now a free agent, so Houston once again will need a catcher to pair with Maldonado.

Crane has subsequently dispatched general manager James Click and now seems to be running the baseball operations for the club, with a new general manager unlikely to be hired until the new year. Though Crane didn’t like the deadline deal, Contreras is now a free agent, making it more straightforward to attain him at this point. He did receive and reject a qualifying offer, however, meaning the Astros would forfeit their second highest pick in the upcoming draft and $500K of their international bonus pool if they did end up signing him.

In terms of the money, the Astros still have plenty to work with, even with their recent aggression. Their signings of Abreu and Rafael Montero bring their payroll to $183MM, per Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax figure of $198MM. In his remarks yesterday, relayed by Rome, Crane said “we certainly have the ability to go at or over” the luxury tax. This year’s lowest CBT threshold will be $233MM, giving the Astros about $35MM of wiggle room remaining between them and the line. MLBTR predicted Contreras to get a contract of $84MM over four years, which would be an annual average value of $21MM.

Fitting Contreras into the remaining funds before the luxury tax line would be easy, but the club is also looking for outfield help as well. However, Rosenthal notes that part of the appeal in Contreras for the Astros is that he can play left field, theoretically lessening their need to bring in another outfielder. Contreras does indeed have some limited outfield action on his résumé, but most of that came in his rookie season in 2016. Over the past three seasons combined, he’s only seen a single inning on the grass.

Having Contreras fill a backup catcher role while also occasionally serving as the designated hitter and playing some outfield would be a creative way to keep his bat in the lineup while Maldonado catches but it would also come with risk. Though Rosenthal notes that the left field area at Minute Maid Park is relatively small, it’s hard to know how Contreras would fare out there given his lack of recent playing time in that position. Also, on days where Maldonado is catching and Contreras is the designated hitter, the club would likely need to keep a third catcher on the roster in order to avoid a situation where Maldonado is injured and Contreras has to move behind the plate, causing the team to lose their DH.

From Contreras’s point of view, if he wants to keep catching, it might not be appealing to suddenly be bumped into this type of utility position compared to simply signing to be another club’s starting backstop. The Cardinals and Tigers have been connected to him in rumors already, while other clubs like the Red Sox and Diamondbacks are known to be looking for help behind the plate. Then again, the Astros are the defending champions and don’t seem to be taking their foot off the gas pedal this winter. Perhaps moving from a rebuilding Cubs team to a surefire contender would be appealing enough that Contreras would embrace this unique plan.

The Opener: Astros, First Basemen, Free Agent Prediction Contest Leaderboard

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With the Winter Meetings now less than a week away, the hot stove seems to be heating up. Here are some things we’re keeping our eyes on today…

1. Are The Astros And Verlander Moving On From Each Other?

The Astros just won the World Series but they’re not resting on their laurels. Despite parting ways with general manager James Click and not hiring a replacement, the club has been one of the most aggressive so far this offseason. They re-signed Rafael Montero to a three-year deal and yesterday poached Jose Abreu from the White Sox on another three-year deal. Next on the agenda seems to be their pursuit of a left-handed hitting outfielder, with the club connected to Michael Conforto and Cody Bellinger in recent days. One area where the club appears to be less focused is starting pitching. A couple of weeks ago, reports indicated that Justin Verlander was looking for a deal similar to the three-year pact Max Scherzer got from the Mets, but that the Astros and owner Jim Crane weren’t willing to go to that level. Since that time, Houston has turned to other players while Verlander has met with the Mets and then also reportedly met with the Dodgers yesterday. Does this mean that his time in Houston, which began in 2017, is coming to an end?

2. Will The Run On First Basemen Continue?

The first base market has been surprisingly active so far this winter, as the Yankees re-signed Anthony Rizzo, the Pirates traded for Ji-Man Choi and signed Carlos Santana, and then Abreu landed with the Astros yesterday. For teams that still need help at first, the options are starting to dwindle. Josh Bell, Trey Mancini, Yuli Gurriel, Brandon Belt, and Luke Voit are some of the free agents still available, while Rowdy Tellez could potentially be available in a trade. The Padres, Cubs, Marlins and Guardians were all connected to Abreu in some fashion but will now need to move on to backup plans. The Rays, Twins and Giants are also teams that could pursue upgrades. As options come off the table, will those clubs act quickly before it’s too late?

3. Free Agent Prediction Contest Leaderboard

The leaderboard for the MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediction Contest will be unveiled later today. As players sign, you’ll be able to track your predictions and compare yourself to other contestants, including MLBTR employees. We decided to make one change this year compared to years past, removing the “freebies.” That means that Anthony Rizzo, Clayton Kershaw, Rafael Montero, Joc Pederson, Martin Perez, and Tyler Anderson will be removed from the results and batting average calculation since they signed while the contest was open.

Astros Sign José Abreu To Three-Year Contract

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The Astros have found their new first baseman, announcing agreement Monday evening on a three-year deal with José Abreu. He’ll reportedly receive $19.5MM per season, bringing the total to $58.5MM. The salary will be paid out evenly, and the deal also contains various incentives based upon awards voting and All-Star appearances. Abreu is represented by ISE Baseball.

Abreu, 36 in January, has spent his entire big league career with the White Sox thus far, but it seemed likely as the season was winding down that they were ready to let him switch jerseys in 2023. With many other first base/designated hitter candidates on the roster, such as Andrew Vaughn and Eloy Jimenez, the thinking was that they would let Abreu walk and dedicate their resources elsewhere, which now appears to have come to pass.

Though the Sox were apparently willing to let him walk away, he continues to have excellent results at the plate. In 2022, he seemingly gave up a bit of power for a more contact-oriented approach, but still to great effect. His 15 home runs were the lowest of his career but so was his 16.2% strikeout rate. The result was a .304/.378/.446 batting line that was 37% better than league average, as evidenced by his 137 wRC+.

That was his ninth MLB season, with Abreu posting a wRC+ of 114 or higher in each of them. He got as high as 164 in 2020, winning Most Valuable Player in the American League in that shortened season. Despite the downturn in power this year, he’s been one of the best hitters in the league over the past decade or so. Since his debut in 2014, he has a 139 wRC+ for his career, with only 11 hitters posting a higher such number in that timeframe. Given his generally solid work at the plate but relatively older age, MLBTR predicted him to secure a contract of $40MM over two years, or $20MM per season. He was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer since he had already been given one earlier in his career.

The Astros were excellent in 2022, winning 106 regular season games and then storming through the playoffs to their second World Series title. First base was actually one of the few weak spots on the roster, as Yuli Gurriel suffered through a down year at the plate. After hitting .319/.383/.462 in 2021, he slumped down to .242/.288/.360 this year. The club acquired Trey Mancini at the deadline to try to bolster the position but it didn’t really work out as he hit just .176/.258/.364 after the deal. Both players reached free agency at season’s end, leaving a vacancy for Abreu to step into. This signing potentially brings Gurriel’s tenure in Houston to an end after seven seasons, unless he’s willing to return in a lesser role as a pinch hitter and occasional designated hitter.

The Astros recently parted ways with general manager James Click amid reported disagreements between him and owner Jim Crane. It seems Crane is in no rush to replace Click, taking over the baseball decisions and seemingly content to continue doing so into the new year. Despite the unusual front office situation, they’ve continued to be quite active, re-signing reliever Rafael Montero and now adding Abreu, both on three-year deals.

Turning to the financials, the Astros currently have a 2023 payroll around $163MM and a competitive balance tax figure around $178MM, per Roster Resource. Their Opening Day payroll figure was $175MM last year and $188MM in 2021, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Assuming Abreu’s contract is in the predicted range of about $20MM per season, that would push their payroll up above $180MM and their CBT number close to $200MM. Though they’re getting close to their previous highs in spending, it stands to reason that they can push it a little bit this winter on the heels of a Championship run and all the extra revenues that go along with that. As for the CBT, the lowest threshold for 2023 will be $233MM, leaving them with plenty of remaining space even if they plan on avoiding going over.

For the White Sox, this marks the end of an era that lasted almost a decade. Vaughn is a natural first baseman whose attempts to move to the outfield went poorly. He produced -16 Outs Above Average on the grass in 2022, the lowest mark of any outfielder in the league this year. His -10.5 Ultimate Zone Rating was also the lowest for an MLB outfielder on the season while his -14 Defensive Runs Saved was among the bottom five. However, he hit .273/.323/.433, producing a wRC+ of 115 while just 24 years old. The Sox surely hope that he can produce even better results as he continues to acclimate to MLB pitching, especially without having to bother with worrying about his outfield defense in the future. Nonetheless, the club will be looking to improve on an 81-81 season while letting their best hitter depart, which won’t be an easy task.

For the Astros, their lineup was already extremely potent, featuring the likes of Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. They’ve now added one of the best hitters in the league as they look to defend their World Series title in the year to come.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that Abreu and the Astros were finalizing a deal, as well as the three-year term (Twitter links). Jon Heyman of The New York Post first relayed that the salary would be around $20MM per season. Mark Berman of Fox 26 reported that it would actually be $19.5MM per year. Heyman was first with the specific salary structure.

Image courtesy USA Today Sports.

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