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Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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Even though they finished under .500 for the first time since 2014, the Astros still found a way to overcome key injuries and make it to their fourth consecutive ALCS this year. However this offseason pans out, the Astros could still have enough talent on hand to push for another playoff berth in 2021. For now, though, general manager James Click & Co. are at risk of losing two high-end hitters in free agency.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Free Agents

Outfielder George Springer has been a premier hitter and a face of the Houston franchise going back to his first year in 2014, though his Astros tenure may be on the verge of ending. After rejecting the Astros’ $18.9MM qualifying offer, the 31-year-old is now unquestionably one of the few elite players on the open market, where MLBTR predicts he’ll rake in a five-year, $125MM payday. Of course, that’s assuming teams will be willing to spend that type of money this offseason after the pandemic took its toll on the league’s finances over the past several months.

The Astros, for their part, have doled out some huge contracts in recent years (the club also took on Zack Greinke’s money in a trade). They also threw around a bit of cash this fall when they made the somewhat eyebrow-raising move to re-sign first baseman Yuli Gurriel to a one-year, $7MM contract despite an uninspiring campaign. However, it remains to be seen whether all of the guaranteed deals on the payroll will have a negative effect on their chances of re-signing Springer, as owner Jim Crane may be reluctant to go to $100MM-plus lengths for him. Furthermore, as Cody Poage of The Crawfish Boxes recently explained in a rundown of the Astros’ payroll, they only have about $37.5MM to spend if they want to stay under the $210MM luxury-tax threshold in 2021. That would make it a challenge to combine re-upping Springer with adequately addressing their other needs.

Of course, along with Springer, the Astros may wave goodbye to another major offensive piece in outfielder/designated hitter Michael Brantley. The Astros didn’t issue him a QO, but they have had talks on a new deal with Brantley, whom they signed to a two-year, $32MM pact a couple offseasons ago. Brantley should get another reasonable deal in that range this time, though Houston would probably have to trust the 33-year-old as an everyday outfield option if it’s going to bring him back. Brantley spent the majority of the season at DH because knee problems wiped out Yordan Alvarez’s 2020, but Alvarez figures to regain control of that spot next year.

With Josh Reddick also on the open market, the only sure bet for the Astros’ outfield is big-hitting corner option Kyle Tucker. The cupboard is close to bare otherwise. Myles Straw endured a miserable year at the plate, so it would be hard to pencil him in as Springer’s replacement in center. And while Chas McCormick is a farmhand of some note, the 25-year-old is hardly a can’t-miss prospect, and he has no big league track record at all.  So, as is the case with Straw, it’s difficult to envision the Astros handing McCormick a starting job and hoping he can somehow help fill the Springer/Brantley void.

Considering their outfield issues, the Astros are going to have to use free agency and/or the trade market if they lose Springer, Brantley, Reddick or all three. Those players aside, there probably isn’t a better fit in free agency than longtime Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. Granted, there’s a significant drop-off from Springer to Bradley, but JBJ is still the second-best center fielder available and someone who should be in the Astros’ price range (MLBTR predicts Houston will ink him to a two-year, $16MM).

Joc Pederson and Jurickson Profar are the next highest-ranked outfielders in free agency, though neither would address the Astros’ hole in center. In Pederson’s case, there may still be bad blood stemming from the Dodgers-Astros World Series in 2017, so whether Houston would even have a chance at signing him is unknown. Even someone like Brett Gardner could be difficult to get in the wake of the Yankees-Astros 2017 ALCS and the animosity directed at the team’s sign-stealing scandal.

Beyond those names, there isn’t much to get excited about on the open market. But if Houston spends little in the outfield and settles for the next tier or two, the team will be looking at the likes of ex-Astros Robbie Grossman and Jake Marisnick, Kevin Pillar, Adam Eaton and Michael A. Taylor. Yasiel Puig could be a wild card to keep an eye on after missing all of 2020. The Astros-Dodgers rivalry could be in play with Puig, but he may be desperate enough to sign with anyone who shows interest in him.

Outfield troubles aside, most of the Astros’ position player group looks to be in place for 2021. Gurriel, Alvarez, second baseman Jose Altuve, shortstop Carlos Correa (if the Astros don’t unexpectedly trade him one year before free agency) and third baseman Alex Bregman are still there. Martin Maldonado is the favorite to return as their catcher, but if the Astros are willing to spend for an upgrade, J.T. Realmuto and to a much lesser extent James McCann may be on the table (it seems more likely the team would splurge on Springer than Realmuto, though). Otherwise, the Astros could at least look for an upgrade over reserve Garrett Stubbs. Yadier Molina, Mike Zunino, Tyler Flowers, Alex Avila, Wilson Ramos and former Astro Jason Castro are among the top backup/timeshare types looking for work.

On the pitching side, the Astros’ rotation somehow held its own in 2020 despite almost no contributions from reigning Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, who underwent Tommy John surgery in October. The timing of that procedure means Verlander also won’t help the team in 2021. However, they do still appear to have their one through five locked up with Greinke, Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy. The Astros could at least pursue some depth signings in case of injury and/or underperformance, but they don’t look like a team that has to fret over its starting staff or pour substantial resources into it this offseason.

The bullpen, on the other hand, could be a different story with Roberto Osuna, Brad Peacock and Chris Devenski on the market. The good news for the Astros is that they were able to adjust to life without them in 2020. Osuna missed almost the whole season with elbow problems, leading the Astros to cut the potential Tommy John patient. Likewise, Peacock and Devenski barely factored in for the club.

Even with the Osuna-Peacock-Devenski departures, the Astros still do have at least a handful of enviable relief arms in Ryan Pressly, Andre Scrubb, Enoli Paredes and Blake Taylor (though Scrubb and Taylor did struggle with walks in 2020). Joe Smith could reenter the fold after sitting out all of 2020, while Austin Pruitt, Brooks Raley, Cionel Perez and Josh James are also among those who could vie for roles.

Although the above names may well comprise most of Houston’s bullpen next year, it won’t be a surprise if the team searches for a reliever(s) who’s more of a sure thing. Luckily for the Astros, free agency is overflowing with veteran relievers who figure to come at fair prices. Even the heads of the class (Liam Hendriks, Brad Hand, Trevor Rosenthal, Blake Treinen and Trevor May) shouldn’t be overly expensive, and there are other credible hurlers in the lower tiers with Alex Colome, Kirby Yates, Jake McGee, Shane Greene, former Astro Mark Melancon and Greg Holland just some of many seeking MLB employment.

While it would behoove the Astros to bring in any relievers along those lines, it’s clear that the outfield is the biggest question Click will have to answer over the next few months. If Click is able to find two good complements to Tucker, it would go a long way in assuring the Astros remain in contention a year from now.

George Springer, J.T. Realmuto Decline Qualifying Offers

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The final qualifying offer decisions are in, as both George Springer of the Astros and J.T. Realmuto of the Phillies have declined their qualifying offers, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). The Astros and Phillies will receive compensatory draft picks if/when they sign with another club. The final tally has four players declining (Springer, Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Bauer) and two accepting their qualifying offer (Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman).

Realmuto, 30 next season, will be the top catcher on the free agent market by a wide margin. His power and athleticism is unmatched behind the plate, and he’s faster than he looks. Realmuto has everything you look for in a catcher, but at 30-years-old, there are still some questions as far as how well he’ll fare in the current climate. Time will tell, but after slashing .273/.333/.492 with 36 home runs over 192 games in his Phillies’ tenure, Realmuto should have no shortage of suitors. The tastemakers here at MLBTR pegged him as 2nd on our list of Top-50 Free Agents in the market, naming the Mets, Reds, Nationals, Yankees, Blue Jays, Phillies, Cardinals, Astros, and Angels as potential suitors.

Springer, 31, has his own bugaboo that makes this foray into the free market an interesting one. There are few holes in his resume, but the part he played in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal will continue to be a line item on any story involving Springer. Still, with a 153 wRC+ since 2019, the ability to play center or left, and 5.0 rWAR per 650 plate appearances throughout his career, Springer will get some attention this winter.

Besides, not that we believe in this sort of thing anymore, but he’s nails in the postseason. He boasts a playoff triple slash of .269/.349/.546 over an absurd 63 career games with 19 home runs and 38 RBIs. That extrapolates out to 49 HRs and 98 RBIs over 162 games. He’s tied for 4th all-time in playoff home runs and currently ranks 5th in championship win probability added. We temper our expectations when it comes to sustainability in high-leverage situations, but we can still marvel at the success Springer has managed thus far in his career (with the now-usual caveat for his part in the sign-stealing).

The MLBTR soothsayers have Springer third on our Top-50 Free Agents list, with the White Sox, Blue Jays, Phillies, Nationals, Cardinals, and Mets as possible destinations. Even with the rejection of the qualifying offer, a return to Houston cannot be ruled out either.

Astros Have Discussed New Deal With Michael Brantley

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The Astros could lose outfielders George Springer, Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick to free agency this winter, but The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports in his latest notes column that the club is “trying to work out a deal” with the 33-year-old Brantley. Interest in a reunion is mutual, Rosenthal adds.

Houston opted not to issue an $18.9MM qualifying offer to Brantley, who just wrapped up a two-year, $32MM contract with the ’Stros. The longtime Indians left fielder was excellent in his new setting, delivering a combined .309/.370/.497 line through 824 plate appearances as an Astro. That excellence continued into the playoffs, where Brantley tallied 138 trips to the plate and slashed .311/.391/.426 over the past two postseasons.

It’s not yet known what type of payroll capacity the Astros have this winter, although owner Jim Crane already showed a willingness to spend when he re-signed first baseman Yuli Gurriel to a one-year, $7MM contract (plus a club option) just prior to the beginning of the Wild Card round of postseason play. That deal was in spite of a generally poor year at the plate for Gurriel, which made it rather surprising, but it certainly had to be viewed as a good omen for Astros players like Brantley who hoped to broker a new arrangement with the team.

Then again, adding Gurriel back at that rate further elevated a reasonably crowded Houston payroll. Between him, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Ryan Pressly, Joe Smith and Martin Maldonado, the Astros have more than $103MM on the books (after factoring for Greinke’s partial salary deferrals and the money coming over from the D-backs as part of that deal). Houston also still owes arbitration raises to Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers Jr. and Aledmys Diaz. Raises for that trio could bring the Astros north of $122MM before adding pre-arbitration players to round out the roster.

That’s not a daunting number relative to the $200MM+ at which the club opened the 2020 season (prior to prorating), but Crane surely would prefer not to replicate that level of spending in the wake of this year’s lost revenue. That may have been true even under normal circumstances, given that last year’s payroll shattered the previous franchise record of about $160MM. The only times the Astros have ever gone beyond the $125MM mark in payroll were in 2018-20. With needs in the bullpen and perhaps in the rotation, there are other areas that need to be addressed as well.

As Rosenthal points out and as we alluded to in our annual free agent rankings, Brantley’s market is further clouded, to an extent, by uncertainty regarding the universal designated hitter. Brantley will turn 34 years old next May and would  benefit from a club that is able to mix in some regular DH reps. He may not be keen on jumping on a new deal until there’s a definitive yay or nay on an NL DH next year. Even if he ultimately lands with an American League team, the presence of the DH in the National League would still improve his negotiating power as he seeks the best deal possible.

Jeff Luhnow Sues Astros For Breach Of Contract

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Former Astros president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow has filed a lawsuit against his former team for breach of contract, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports.  Luhnow was fired last January after details of the infamous sign-stealing scandal became publicly known via a league report, which alleged that Luhnow had at least some knowledge of the wrongdoing and (as the GM) was ultimately responsible for the actions of his employees.

In July 2018, Luhnow signed a contract extension that would have kept him in Houston through the 2023 season.  The value of this extension wasn’t known, but Luhnow’s lawsuit claims the contract was worth “more than $31 million,” and that Luhnow’s firing cost him “more than $22 million in guaranteed compensation” as well as other benefits.

Some of the details of Luhnow’s lawsuit resemble statements his profession of innocence in an interview with KPRC’s Vanessa Richardson last month.  Luhnow’s lawsuit alleges he was fired without cause, claiming that three documents used by the league as evidence against him in regards to his knowledge of the sign-stealing plan don’t directly mention “in-game electronic sign stealing.”  For Luhnow’s most extensive public defense, check out his interview for Ben Reiter’s podcast.

Luhnow became “the scapegoat for the [Astros] organization” in the wake of the league’s investigation, which the lawsuit describes as “a negotiated resolution” between Astros owner Jim Crane and Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred.  According to the suit…

“The commissioner vetted potential penalties with Crane, and the two exchanged a series of proposals.  Those negotiations proved beneficial to Crane and the Astros.

“The commissioner allowed the Astros to keep their 2017 World Series championship, imposed a $5 million fine (a fraction of the revenues Crane had reaped as part of the team’s recent success), and took away four draft picks. He also issued a blanket vindication of Crane, absolving him of any responsibility for failing to supervise his club.

“Moreover, Crane and the Astros were assured of fielding a contending team in 2020 — the team advanced to the American League Championship Series for the fourth straight year — because the commissioner did not suspend or penalize any of the players who were directly involved in the scandal.”

Luhnow and then-manager A.J. Hinch were also both issued season-long suspensions for their roles in the sign-stealing scandal, though the two men were fired the same day as the league’s report was released.  Alex Cora, the Astros’ former bench coach and one of the architects of the sign-stealing plan, was also fired from his job as the Red Sox manager the next day and was later suspended for the 2020 season.  (Carlos Beltran, then an Astros player who was also one of the chief organizers of the sign-stealing procedures, was also fired from his newly-installed position as manager of the Mets due to the fallout from the scandal, though Beltran faced no league discipline.)

Hinch and Cora, of course, returned to managing almost immediately after their suspensions were over — Hinch is now managing the Tigers while Cora was re-hired by the Red Sox.  Luhnow’s lawsuit also alleges that Astros director of advanced information Tom Koch-Weser is “the ringleader of the Astros’ sign-stealing schemes” and a source of false information about Luhnow in the league’s report, claiming Manfred “let the ringleader keep his position in exchange for providing information that would implicate Luhnow.”

Red Sox, Jackie Bradley Jr. Have Been In Contact

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The Red Sox have reached out to Jackie Bradley Jr.’s camp since free agency opened, reports Rob Bradford of WEEI. The 30-year-old has also drawn interest from the Astros and an unidentified team in the AL Central, Bradford adds. (Speculatively speaking, the Royals and Indians seem the most likely teams in that division to pursue centerfield help this offseason).

Bradley joined the Red Sox when the organization selected him with the 40th overall pick in the 2010 draft. He had cemented himself as the team’s everyday center fielder by 2015, a role he’s held ever since. Bradley has had his share of highs and lows at the plate, but he’s consistently been among the game’s best defensive outfielders.

To his credit, Bradley hits the open market on the heels of one of the better offensive showings of his career. He slashed .283/.364/.450 with seven home runs over 217 plate appearances in 2020, rebounding from a .225/.317/.421 line the season before. That strong showing positions Bradley well in a free agent center field market that’s otherwise quite thin behind George Springer. The MLBTR staff forecasts Bradley for a two-year, $16MM deal this winter, with Houston pegged as his most likely landing spot.

Astros Exercise Brooks Raley’s Option

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Nov. 2: Raley’s club option called for a split contract in 2021, reports Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter). He’ll earn at a $2MM rate on the big league roster, but the contract calls for him to earn at a $250K rate in the minors. If Raley pitches like he did for Houston in 2020, he should make the roster and earn the entirety of that salary, but it’s a notable distinction that it’s not a straight, fully guaranteed $2MM salary.

Nov. 1: The Astros are picking up Brooks Raley’s $2MM club option for 2021, GM James Click informed reporters (including Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). The 32-year-old only has one-plus year of MLB service. Nevertheless, under the terms of the contract he signed last offseason, he’ll be eligible for free agency at the end of next season.

Raley parlayed a solid five-year run with the KBO’s Lotte Giants into a deal with the Reds. While he was let go by Cincinnati after just four appearances, he found a home in Houston. The Astros acquired Raley from the Reds for a player to be named later in August.

The southpaw went on toss 16 relief innings in the regular season. His 3.94 ERA doesn’t jump off the page, but Raley racked up 21 strikeouts against four walks in Houston, holding opposing hitters to a paltry .143/.213/.339 line.  He worked another 5.2 innings across eight appearances during Houston’s playoff run, allowing two earned runs with a 9:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Six Players Extended Qualifying Offers

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Six players will be extended qualifying offers this winter, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). Those players are:

None of the players issued the QO comes as a particular surprise. Bauer, LeMahieu, Realmuto and Springer were all easy calls for their respective teams. Each of that group will certainly reject the offer. Stroman and Gausman might’ve been tougher calls but had been reported previously.

More notable are the series of players who were not issued a QO. Astros outfielder Michael Brantley will hit the market unencumbered, as he did when he became a free agent two years ago. Oakland didn’t issue a QO to either of Marcus Semien or Liam Hendriks, while the Phillies and Angels decided against an offer for Didi Gregorius and Andrelton Simmons, respectively. The six players issued a qualifying offer is down from last offseason’s ten, which isn’t much of a surprise since this winter is expected to be particularly tough for players in the wake of teams’ pandemic-driven revenue losses.

The players issued the qualifying offer will now have ten days to weigh their options. Players who reject the offer and become free agents will cost their signing teams draft compensation (or the right to recoup draft compensation if they sign with their current team). Here is a full run-down of the qualifying offer rules this offseason.

Astros Lose Carlos Sanabria To Waivers

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  • Royals left-hander Mike Montgomery and right-hander Kevin McCarthy cleared outright waivers and have elected free agency, reports Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com (Twitter link). Montgomery, 31, was limited to 5.1 innings in 2020 due to a lat injury, derailing his chance of cementing himself in the Kansas City rotation. McCarthy was an oft-used bullpen piece in 2019 but only got into five games last season. Additionally, Kansas City claimed righty Carlos Sanabria off waivers from the Astros, per Flanagan (Twitter link). The 23-year-old reliever performed well in the high minors in 2019 and made his MLB debut in this year.

Roberto Osuna, Chris Devenski, Dustin Garneau, Chase De Jong Elect Free Agency

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Astros Roberto Osuna, Chris Devenski, Dustin Garneau and Chase De Jong have elected free agency after clearing waivers, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic reports.

The most notable addition to the open market here is Osuna, whom the Astros outrighted earlier this week. Osuna has been excellent since he debuted with the Blue Jays in 2015, but he’s forever marred because of a domestic violence suspension in 2018. The Astros still traded for him that year, however, and they did benefit from his on-the-mound presence after that. But the 25-year-old’s future is now uncertain because of a right elbow injury that cost him almost all of 2020 and could force him to undergo Tommy John surgery.

The righty Devenski was a lights-out bullpen workhorse for the Astros in his first two seasons, including during their World Series-winning year in 2017, but the 29-year-old has since fallen on hard times. Not only has Devenski’s production taken a severe turn for the worse, but he threw only 3 2/3 innings in 2020 and is just over a month removed from undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow. He’s not expected to recover from that procedure until sometime in the winter.

The well-traveled Garneau, 33, signed with the Astros last winter and ended up seeing time as their backup catcher. Garneau hit a meager .158/.273/.289 with one home run in 46 plate appearances, though.

De Jong began the year in independent ball before the Astros acquired him from the Sugarland Skeeters on Aug. 3. That move didn’t prove successful for Houston, as the right-handed De Jong went on to allow a whopping 12 earned runs in 7 1/3 innings.

Astros Place Roberto Osuna On Outright Waivers

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The Astros have placed right-hander Roberto Osuna on outright waivers, reports Jake Kaplan of The Athletic (Twitter link). The right-hander missed most of the 2020 season with an elbow injury and was initially recommended to undergo Tommy John surgery, although a second opinion caused him to attempt to rehab the injury without surgery. Osuna was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to repeat his $10MM salary in his final trip through arbitration, and his salary and injury have made an obvious non-tender candidate. That’s what this move effectively boils down to.

Given Osuna’s injury, projected salary and prior suspension under Major League Baseball’s domestic violence policy, it’s all but a lock that he’ll clear waivers and become a free agent.

Still just 25 years of age, Osuna pitched only 4 1/3 innings in 2020 before landing on the injured list with what proved to be a season-ending elbow ailment. He’s been consistently excellent every season he’s been on the mound — career 2.74 ERA, 9.9 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 — but Osuna also served 75-game suspension in 2018 after his girlfriend filed domestic violence charges against him. Osuna eventually agreed to a peace bond in Canada, which resulted in the charges being dropped.

Per the Canadian Department of Justice’s web site, peace bonds are generally used when “an individual (the defendant) appears likely to commit a criminal offence, but there are no reasonable grounds to believe that an offence has actually been committed.” The Canadian Department of Justice further specifies  that peace bonds are obtainable by “any person who fears that another person may injure them, their spouse or common-law partner, or a child, or may damage their property.”

All of that will be factored into any future negotiations between Osuna and a new team once he reaches the market, although Osuna’s own track record shows that teams will look past allegations of abuse and assault in order to acquire a productive Major Leaguer. The Astros embarrassingly walked back their own “zero tolerance” policy for domestic abuse in order to acquire Osuna at a lower cost in the middle of his suspension, and we’ve seen other teams pay premium prices to sign players who’ve served suspensions under the domestic violence policy (most notably the Yankees with Aroldis Chapman).

The most immediate determining factor in Osuna’s next destination will be the health of his right elbow (or lack thereof). He began a throwing program about a month after initially being shut down, but he’ll have a ways to go before he’s ready to rejoin a bullpen.

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