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Astros To Sign Pedro Baez

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7:22pm: Baez is promised a total of $12.5MM, per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (Twitter links). That includes a $500K signing bonus, successive salaries of $4.5MM and $5.5MM, and with a $2MM buyout of a $7.5MM club option.

The pact also contains some other financial provisions. Baez could add up to $1MM to his 2022 salary depending upon how many innings he throws. He could boost the buyout to $2.5MM and the option price to $8MM through innings-pitched-based escalators.

6:22pm: The deal includes an option for a third year, escalators and a buyout, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, who tweets that the total value could range from $12MM to $14MM. It’s a team option, per Mark Berman of Fox 26.

5:05pm: The Astros have agreed to a two-year contract with free-agent reliever Pedro Baez, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reports. Financial details aren’t yet known, and the deal is pending a physical. Baez is a Kelvin Nova client.

The Astros are landing a proven late-game option in the right-handed Baez, who recorded a 3.03 ERA with a 25.3 percent strikeout rate and an 8.2 percent walk rate over 356 innings as a Dodger from 2014-20. Baez put up a 3.18 ERA during his last season with Los Angeles, though he notched a much less encouraging 4.98 SIERA along the way and easily registered career-worst numbers in average fastball velocity (94.4 mph), strikeout rate (18.6) and swinging-strike percentage (12.4). The year before that, Baez managed 96 mph velo, a strikeout percentage of 25.0 and a 15.0 percent swinging-strike rate.

Addressing the relief corps has been a known point of emphasis this offseason for Astros general manager James Click, who signed former Ray and Marlin Ryne Stanek before agreeing to the Baez deal. The club was also in on Liam Hendriks before he agreed to a pact with the White Sox and has been linked to Brad Hand, Trevor Rosenthal and Alex Colome. Any of the latter three would seemingly be more impactful additions than Baez and Stanek, so the Astros may not be done trying to upgrade a bullpen that dealt with significant health issues in 2020 and finished a middle-of-the-pack 15th in the majors in ERA (4.39).

Red Sox Discussing Andrew Benintendi In Trade Talks

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JANUARY 12, 7:23pm: A rival executive told Mark Feinsand of MLB.com that he will be “shocked” if the Red Sox don’t trade Benintendi before the end of the weekend.

4:26pm: The Red Sox have discussed Benintendi with more teams than the ones mentioned below, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports. One of those clubs “has discussed trading big-league pitching depth for Benintendi,” Speier writes.

1:51PM: “Another American League team not mentioned has had deeper discussions” about Benintendi, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford tweets.  A source also tells Bradford that the Rangers aren’t in on Benintendi.

12:35PM: The Astros, Athletics, and Rangers have all been in touch with the Red Sox about Benintendi, Sean McAdam of the Boston Sports Journal reports (Twitter link).  A source tells McAdam that Benintendi could be on the move soon, though it won’t be to the Marlins, another club previously linked to the outfielder in reports.

JANUARY 9: The Red Sox have been in “serious trade talks” about the possibility of moving left fielder Andrew Benintendi, writes The Athletic’s Jim Bowden (via Twitter). The Red Sox have a particular interest in pitcher and outfielder prospects, notes Bowden, but that’s likely a starting point more than a mandate. However serious discussions have been thus far, there is no deal pending.

There may be some bombast to Bowden’s report, which is only to say that there is a wide range of interpretations for “serious trade talks.” That could speak to an earnestness on Boston’s part in terms of their willingness to deal Benintendi, or it could reference a specific exchange of names, or something else entirely. Regardless, it’s not a shocking development for Benintendi’s name to emerge on the hot stove. Boston would be selling low on their 26-year-old outfielder, however, who is coming off a 43 wRC+ showing in 14 games in an injury-shortened 2020. Interested teams, however, are paying more attention to his 2019 production (100 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR) than 2020, adds Rob Bradford of WEEI.com (via Twitter).

His 2020 performance aside, there is some concern that Benintendi has declined in foot speed, which could have major repercussions on his game. He has not yet boasted the explosive power traditionally associated with a corner outfielder (.162 career ISO). Per Statcast, Benintendi’s sprint speed has slowed from 28.6 feet per second as a 22-year-old in 2016 to 27.7 ft/s as a 24-year-old in 2018 to 26.6 ft/s as a 26-year-old in the short sample of 2020. That’s a rather stunning fall from the 89th percentile to the 43rd percentile.

If anything, the decline in speed could threaten his viability as a centerfielder. Benintendi hasn’t played much center in his career, but he hasn’t needed to with Jackie Bradley Jr. manning the middle in Boston. With Bradley a free agent, the Red Sox are looking at a starting outfield of Benintendi, Alex Verdugo, and Hunter Renfroe. All three have traditionally fit better in the corner. Hypothetically, if Boston didn’t think Benintendi was a good fit in center, they could look to move him to give more playing time to Verdugo and Renfroe. At the same time, Renfroe was a part-time player with the Rays last season, and he could continue in that capacity this season. Jarren Duran could make the Major League team at some point, and he might fit better in center than anyone else currently on the Boston roster. All of which merely speaks to why Boston might view Benintendi as an expendable asset, not necessarily why they would or should desire to move him.

As a prospect, Benintendi possessed a monster hit tool with the possibility for big power, and his game hardly predicated solely on his foot speed (though he was viewed more as a gap-to-gap hitter than a home run leader). Remember, he was the No. 1 ranked prospect in the game as recently as 2017 per Baseball America, who wrote in their prospect report after he made his debut in 2016: “Multiple evaluators believe that Benintendi has a chance to be a perennial all-star who competes for batting titles. ’He’s a once-in-a-decade hitter,’ one said. Benintendi combines excellent hand-eye coordination with the pitch recognition to avoid strike zone expansion. His precisely-tuned swing, with his strong forearms and core along with a rare knack for putting the bat on the ball, allow him to drive the ball with surprising authority given his diminutive stature.” Those skills at peak development still play even if he doesn’t run as well as before. Certainly, a team that sees even a portion of that upside would have more than enough cause to make a run at Benintendi, depending on Boston’s asking price.

Latest On Austin Pruitt

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  • Astros right-hander Austin Pruitt underwent elbow surgery in September and was cleared to begin throwing this week, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic reports (subscription required). Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to immediately begin that process after subsequently testing positive for COVID-19, although Pruitt said he is suffering only minor symptoms. Pruitt is not expected to be ready to return by Opening Day but he does figure to contribute to Houston’s pitching staff at some point in 2021, Kaplan writes. After being acquired from the Rays last winter, injuries have prevented Pruitt from making his official debut in a Houston uniform.

Astros To Sign Ryne Stanek

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The Astros are signing free-agent reliever Ryne Stanek, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports. It’s a one-year deal, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle tweets. Stanek will earn $1.1MM, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The right-hander is a client of MVP Sports Group.

The 29th overall pick of the Rays in 2013, Stanek made his major league debut four years later and gave the club especially good production from 2018-19. He was one of the Rays’ go-to opener options then, starting 56 games in 100 appearances, and managed a 3.17 ERA with a 28.9 percent strikeout rate and a 9.6 percent walk rate in 122 innings. However, the Rays moved on from Stanek when they sent him to the Marlins in a 2019 trade deadline deal that delivered stud reliever Nick Anderson to Tampa Bay.

Unfortunately for Miami, Stanek wasn’t able to maintain his effectiveness in its uniform. The 29-year-old had a rough season in 2020, when he threw 10 innings of 7.20 ERA ball with almost as many unintentional walks (eight) as strikeouts (11) and saw his average fastball dip from the 98 mph range to 96. The Marlins then non-tendered Stanek in lieu of paying him a projected $800K in arbitration.

The Astros could control Stanek through 2023 via arbitration, so this might be more than a one-year union between the two. And Astros general manager James Click, who was part of the Rays’ front office when they drafted Stanek and saw him flourish a few years later, is quite familiar with the hurler.

Stanek will now join a Houston bullpen that ranked a middle-of-the-pack 15th in ERA a season ago. The Astros have since lost relievers Roberto Osuna, Brad Peacock and Chris Devenski to free agency, and while none played big roles in 2020, the team has been looking to address its relief corps to a notable degree this winter. In fact, Mark Berman of Fox 26 tweeted Thursday that the Astros want more than one reliever and have interest in free agents Brad Hand and Trevor Rosenthal (along with the previously reported Liam Hendriks and Alex Colome). With that in mind, they probably aren’t done after the Stanek acquisition.

Latest On Yasiel Puig

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Free-agent outfielder Yasiel Puig hasn’t played in the majors since 2019, but the league hasn’t forgotten about him. Several clubs – the Red Sox, Yankees, Astros, Marlins and Orioles – “appear to have varying levels of interest” in Puig, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets.

After a largely successful career with the Dodgers, Reds and Cleveland from 2013-19, Puig looked like a surefire bet to land a guaranteed contract last offseason. But the former All-Star didn’t encounter as much serious interest as expected, and he didn’t find a deal until the Braves agreed to sign him in the middle of July – shortly before the truncated season was set to begin. However, the contract never became official because Puig tested positive for COVID-19 just a few days later. Considering how long it would have taken Puig to recover and get up to speed, it was seemingly too late for the Braves or another big league club to sign him before the year ended.

Although last year was a lost season for Puig, he does appear to be an appealing buy-low type for MLB teams that aren’t necessarily looking to spend big on outfield help in free agency or via trade. Puig, who turned 30 last month, is the owner of a .277/.348/.475 line with 132 home runs and 79 stolen bases across 3,376 plate appearances. That history of above-average production should help Puig land a reasonably priced contract before next season starts.

Liam Hendriks Visits Blue Jays

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Free agent Liam Hendriks visited the Blue Jays’ training complex in Dunedin today, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The 31-year-old (32 in February) is unquestionably the best reliever available on the open market and has been quite arguably the best reliever in the sport over the past two seasons.

Hendriks had been loosely tied to the Blue Jays in recent weeks, but today’s visit seems to underscore the seriousness of those talks. Toronto has been connected to virtually every prominent free agent and trade target available this winter. It seems likely they’ll bring in at least one key player from outside the organization.

It remains to be seen whether Hendriks, who pitched for Toronto between 2014-15, will be among the Jays’ noteworthy additions. The Mets, Dodgers, White Sox and Astros have also been tied to the right-hander at various points this offseason. Chicago remains in play for Hendriks, reiterates Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Houston is still “all over him,” hears Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. The Dodgers’ “strong interest” in signing Hendriks also persists, adds Robert Murray of Fansided. It’s clear Hendriks is finding rather robust interest, which should aid his attempt to land the four-year contract he seeks.

Five Teams Showing Interest In Alex Colome

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There hasn’t been much public buzz about Alex Colome’s market this winter, but the former All-Star has been attracting some attention in free agency.  Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (via Twitter) reports that the Twins “recently inquired” about Colome’s services, while FanSided’s Robert Murray (Twitter links) adds that the Nationals, Red Sox, Astros, and White Sox have also shown interest.

For the last five seasons, Colome has been a solid and occasionally dominant ninth-inning option, racking up 138 saves for the Rays, Mariners, and White Sox since the start of the 2016 season.  With Chicago in 2020, Colome posted just an 0.81 ERA over 22 1/3 innings, while posting a largely impressive slate of Statcast metrics (in particular finishing in the 95th percentile in barrel percentage).  ERA predictors, however, weren’t nearly as impressed with his work, as Colome’s 2.97 FIP, 4.26 xFIP, and 4.44 SIERA all reflected his ordinary 6.4 K/9, as well as some good fortune in the form of a .200 BABIP and 86.4% strand rate.  He also didn’t allow a single home run last year, which isn’t likely to be duplicated over a full season.

Colome largely relies on a two-pitch arsenal of a cutter (which he has thrown over 70% of the time in each of the last two seasons) and a four-seam fastball that clocks around the 94.4mph range.  It’s hard to argue with results, of course, though teams could be wary of committing big money to the 32-year-old Colome going forward if they feel his advanced metrics will start catching up to his on-field numbers.

That said, the lack of Colome updates to this point could also be par for the course during an offseason that hasn’t seen much high-priced movement in the relief market.  Trevor May’s two-year, $15.5MM deal with the Mets represents the only significant contract given to a relief pitcher this winter, and such names as Liam Hendriks, Brad Hand, Blake Treinen, and Trevor Rosenthal continue to wait for their next teams (not to mention many other prominent relievers who could be available in trades).

As we inch closer to the projected start of Spring Training, it isn’t surprising that we’ll hear more news about interest in Colome and other relievers as teams start to get aggressive about filling holes in the bullpen.  All five of the teams linked to Colome have needs at the back of their respective pen, even if a provisional closer is already in place to handle the bulk of save opportunities.  For the White Sox in particular, there has been speculation that the team could elevate Aaron Bummer or Evan Marshall to closer if Colome went elsewhere, though it would make sense that Chicago would welcome back a familiar closer (at the right price, of course) if the Sox want some ninth-inning experience for what they hope will be a deeper run into the postseason.

Haruki Nishikawa Not Expected To Sign With MLB Team This Offseason

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3:45 pm: Nishikawa will not reach an agreement with an MLB club before this afternoon’s 4:00 pm CST deadline, per a report from Yahoo! Japan (link in Japanese). He’ll instead return to the Fighters for a tenth season in 2021.

10:52 am: In early December, the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters made center fielder Haruki Nishikawa available to major league teams via the posting system. That opened a 30-day window for MLB clubs to work out an agreement with Nishikawa; otherwise, the 28-year-old would return to the Fighters for at least another season.

Today marks the final day of Nishikawa’s posting window, as was first noted last month by Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). While no one knows if the left-handed hitter will put pen to paper in the coming hours, it seems he has attracted the attention of a few MLB teams. Japan’s Nikkan Sports reported earlier this week (Japanese-language link) that the Astros, Blue Jays, Cardinals and Diamondbacks were among those with interest in the outfielder. It isn’t clear if any of those four (or any other MLB club) has actually put forth a formal offer, however.

Over parts of nine seasons at Japan’s highest level, Nishikawa has hit .286/.382/.394. He’s coming off a very strong 2020 seasons with the Fighters, wherein he slashed .306/.430/.396 with more walks than strikeouts across 523 plate appearances. Nishikawa has never been much of a power threat, but he’s consistently hit for high batting averages and drawn plenty of walks.

If Nishikawa were to come to an agreement with an MLB team, the signing team would owe a release fee to the Fighters. That fee, which comes on top of the contract paid to the player himself, is equal to 20 percent of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5 percent of the next $25MM and 15 percent of any dollars thereafter. Nishikawa’s track record in NPB is lesser than that of countryman Shogo Akiyama, who inked a three-year, $21MM deal with the Reds last winter. It’d be a surprise to see Nishikawa top that mark, so in all likelihood his posting fee will fall squarely into that first tier, 20-percent bracket. Nishikawa’s former Fighters teammate, right-hander Kohei Arihara, signed with the Rangers last week.

Latest On Jason Castro

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Free agent Jason Castro was recently rumored to be holding serious talks with the Astros, but a week has passed without a reported deal. It now seems that a Houston reunion is just one of several possibilities for the veteran backstop.

It remains possible that Castro will sign on for a seventh season with the ’Stros, Robert Murray of Fansided reports on Twitter. But the re-connection “isn’t as certain as once thought,” per the tweet, with other suitors evidently circling.

Even in a slow-moving marketplace, situations can change quickly. The Cubs now have use for a part-time, left-handed-hitting receiver after dealing away Victor Caratini (with more turnover behind the dish still quite possible). And indeed the Chicago organization has “shown interest” in Castro, according to Patrick Mooney of The Athletic.

It isn’t known whether any other clubs are targeting Castro at the moment, though it’s not hard to imagine wider interest. He’s obviously not the top target on the catching market, but is a solid defensive performer who’d theoretically fit in a lot of places as a platoon piece.

While Castro has turned in middling hitting performances in two of the past three seasons, he was limited in both cases to less than a hundred plate appearances (due to injury in 2018 and pandemic in 2020). In his last full campaign, in 2019, Castro turned in a sturdy .232/.332/.435 batting output in 275 plate appearances. He’s a lifetime .242/.328/.421 producer against right-handed pitching.

Transaction Retrospection: Teoscar Hernandez Trade

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Few players raised their stock more this past season than Teoscar Hernández. A competent but unspectacular hitter from 2018-19, Hernández had what looked like a breakout in 2020. Over 207 plate appearances, the Blue Jay outfielder hit .289/.340/.579 with 16 home runs. Along the way, he ranked in the 94th percentile or better in such Statcast metrics as average exit velocity, hard contact, expected weighted on-base average and barrel rate.

Hernández isn’t a flawless player. He’s a below-average defender. He has long had issues making contact, with a career 31.6% strikeout rate only marginally higher than last year’s 30.4%. Moving forward, the 28-year-old looks more like a solid regular than a star in the making. Regardless, Hernández is a valuable and important part of a Toronto roster coming off a berth in the expanded playoffs and looking on the verge of perennial postseason contention.

With that in mind, it’s worth looking back at the deal that landed Hernández with the Jays in the first place. Originally signed as an international amateur by the Astros, Hernández was flipped (alongside veteran outfielder Nori Aoki) to Toronto in advance of the 2017 trade deadline for left-hander Francisco Liriano. To that point, the veteran southpaw had posted just a 5.88 ERA as a starter for the Blue Jays. He had stifled opposing left-handed hitters, though, holding them to a .230/.254/.361 slash line.

The Houston front office thought a bullpen transition, where Liriano could be heavily leveraged against same-handed batters, could make him an asset. With George Springer, Josh Reddick, Derek Fisher and Jake Marisnick all on hand (and Kyle Tucker rapidly climbing the minor-league ladder), the Astros felt they could part with an MLB-ready outfield prospect to acquire a relief weapon. Unfortunately, Liriano continued to scuffle down the stretch, pitching to a 4.40 ERA with an 11:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 14.1 relief innings as an Astro.

Despite mediocre production from Liriano, the Astros went on to win the World Series. However one feels about the legitimacy of that title after subsequent revelations of Houston’s sign-stealing operation, the team probably wouldn’t undo any specific transaction related to the roster in retrospect. But from a pure value perspective, there’s no question Toronto came out ahead in the swap. Aoki barely played for the team, but Hernández looks to have emerged as a capable everyday performer as the Jays’ new contention window opens. He remains under club control through 2023.

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