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Red Sox Issue Qualifying Offer To Nick Pivetta

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The Red Sox issued a qualifying offer to Nick Pivetta, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). MassLive’s Chris Cotillo, who first suggested a Pivetta QO was possible, added that Tyler O’Neill will not receive the QO. Pivetta and his representatives at CAA have until November 19 to decide whether to accept.

Boston’s decision comes as at least a moderate surprise. Pivetta has been a consistent source of innings but has never quite managed high-end results. He doesn’t have a single season with an earned run average under 4.00. Pivetta consistently posts fantastic strikeout and walk numbers, but a propensity for hard contact and the home run ball deals a hit to his overall results.

The Sox have yet to quite unlock Pivetta’s full upside. They’re willing to make a significant one-year commitment to take another shot. If Pivetta accepts the offer, he’d rejoin a rotation that’ll also include Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck and potentially Kutter Crawford and Richard Fitts. The Sox should welcome Lucas Giolito back from injury in the season’s first half. There’s a decent amount of depth, particularly if Pivetta returns, though the group is still lacking a true #1 arm.

Boston neither paid the luxury tax nor received revenue sharing this past season. That puts them in the middle tier of QO compensation. If Pivetta walks, the Sox would receive a pick between the end of Competitive Balance Round B and the third round in the 2025 draft.

Red Sox Exercise Club Option On Rob Refsnyder

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The Red Sox announced this morning that they’ve exercised their club option on outfielder Rob Refsnyder for the 2025 season. Refsnyder will make $2.1MM in 2025.

The decision to exercise Refsnyder’s option was surely an easy one for the Red Sox, given the low financial cost associated with the deal and his excellent 2024 campaign. Though Refsnyder was only a part-time player for the Red Sox this year with just 307 trips to the plate across 93 plate appearances, the 33-year-old slashed an excellent .283/.359/.471 with a 130 wRC+, including a .302/.393/.548 with a 160 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. That ability to rake against southpaws is particularly valuable for the Red Sox due to their lefty-heavy lineup, where Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Masataka Yoshida are all swing lefty in the outfield mix.

Refsnyder hasn’t simply been a one-season wonder, either. The veteran has provided the club with quality production off the bench in each of his three seasons in Boston, slashing a solid .278/.367/.427 (122 wRC+) in 727 trips to the plate with the club since he first joined them back in 2022. That sort of steady production in a bench role can be difficult to come by, making today’s decision to bring Refsnyder back for 2025 something of a no-brainer. The biggest possible hurdle to Refsnyder returning to the Red Sox next year was the possibility that he could contemplate retirement following the 2024 campaign, but he put those questions to bed in late September when he suggested that he would be open to playing “a couple more years” before hanging up the cleats.

Obvious as the move to bring Refsnyder back into the fold for 2025 was, however, it only serves to highlight just how crowded the club’s outfield mix has become. Duran and Abreu figure to get the lion’s share of starts in two of three outfield spots next year with both Refsnyder and Yoshida also on the roster as players restricted to outfield and DH duties. Ceddanne Rafaela, meanwhile, is capable of playing all over the diamond but is the club’s best defensive center fielder on the roster and not nearly as well regarded defensively when on the infield dirt.

Playing time figures to be further complicated by the impending arrival of top prospect Roman Anthony, another lefty swinging outfielder, and the club has also been heavily rumored to have interest in adding an everyday player who hits from the right side like incumbent slugger Tyler O’Neill or 2023-24 offseason target Teoscar Hernandez to the lineup this winter. With so many outfield options to be considered, it would hardly be a surprise if the Red Sox looked to deal from their outfield mix in order to clear up playing time and address the rotation. If such a trade does come to pass, however, Refsnyder is unlikely to be the one departing the Red Sox. Moving on from his $2.1MM salary would be relatively inconsequential in the great picture of Boston’s financial outlook, and one year of a part time player is unlikely to command a major return on the trade market.

12 Players Elect Free Agency

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As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. These transactions are all reflected on the MiLB.com or MLB.com logs unless otherwise stated.

Infielders

Pitchers

* Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported that Dalbec, Westbrook, and Keller have elected free agency. Francys Romero reported that Barrero has elected free agency.

Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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Despite end-of-season promises of a "full-throttle" approach to the 2023-24 offseason, things were fairly quiet for the Red Sox during their first year under new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow's guidance as the club prioritized short-term commitments in free agency and on the trade market without making a major splash. That led to another disappointing season at Fenway where the club posted a lackluster 81-81 record that landed them third place in the AL East and four games out of an AL Wild Card spot. After a season that saw a number of youngsters take steps forward and with more prospect talent nearing the majors, Breslow's second winter at the helm figures to be more active than his first.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Rafael Devers, 3B: $284MM through 2033
  • Trevor Story, SS: $77.5MM through 2027 (includes $5MM buyout on 2028 club option)
  • Masataka Yoshida, DH: $55.8MM through 2027
  • Brayan Bello, SP: $53.33MM through 2029 (includes $1MM buyout on 2030 club option)
  • Ceddanne Rafaela, CF/SS: $48.75MM through 2031 (includes $4MM buyout on 2032 club option)
  • Liam Hendriks, RP: $8MM through 2025 (includes $2MM buyout on $12MM mutual option)
  • Garrett Whitlock, SP/RP: $14MM through 2026 (includes $1MM buyout on 2027 club option; additional club option for '28)

Option Decisions

2025 financial commitments: $105.93MM
Total long-term financial commitments: $562.79MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: None

Free Agents

Disappointing as the 2024 season was for the Red Sox in terms of their record, one major silver lining for the club this winter is that the majority of their key contributors remain under long-term team control, meaning they'll be able to focus more on upgrading the roster than patching holes created by departing veterans. In particular, they're extremely well set-up in the outfield with Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela all currently locked in at the major league level, not to mention the presence of Masataka Yoshida and (assuming his club option is picked up as expected) Rob Refsnyder.

With top prospect Roman Anthony knocking on the door of the majors and even getting some buzz as Baseball America's #1 prospect, the Red Sox remain flush in outfield talent even as they watch Tyler O'Neill and his 30-homer power depart for free agency. Of course, that's not to say O'Neill's bat won't be sorely missed in the Red Sox lineup. As a team, their 104 wRC+ was a hair above average, placing them in a three-way tie with the Brewers and Mariners for the tenth-best figure in the majors. While that's certainly a respectable number, even a prospect as talented as Anthony can't be expected to seamlessly replace the 131 wRC+ O'Neill provided to the club in a resurgent 2024 season.

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Lucas Giolito Exercises Player Option For 2025

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Red Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito has exercised his $19MM player option for the 2025 season, the team announced. There was little doubt that Giolito would pick up the option after he missed the entire 2024 season due to elbow surgery.

Last winter, Giolito was Boston’s big winter signing. It was a two-year deal with a $38.5MM guarantee, with the righty having the ability to opt-out after the first season.

He had a down year in 2023 and was surely hoping for a bounceback in 2024, which could allow him to return to the open market with more earning power. Unfortunately, he was diagnosed with a partial tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow during spring training, as well as a flexor strain, ultimately undergoing internal brace surgery.

After missing the entire 2024 campaign, there was little drama about this decision. Rather than return to free agency, he’ll lock in his $19MM player option and be a part of Boston’s rotation mix for 2025. He might not be ready by Opening Day but should get back on the mound at some point.

The Sox are now losing Nick Pivetta to free agency, leaving them with a rotation core of Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford. They also have guys like Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell, Quinn Priester and others for the back end. They will likely pursue offseason upgrades but Giolito will be a midseason addition at some point. As will Garrett Whitlock and Chris Murphy, who also underwent elbow surgery early in the ’24 season.

When Giolito returns will be of importance for him and the club, as his deal with the Sox also includes a option for 2026. If he throws fewer than 140 innings in 2025, it’s a $14MM club option. But if he gets over that threshold, it’s a $19MM mutual option. Either way, the buyout is $1.5MM.

If Giolito has a strong bounceback, he will want to get over that line and return to free agency, but he’ll need to stay fairly healthy after his current rehab is over. If he has a decent season but falls shy of the line, he could be a relatively cheap rotation option for the Sox in ’26.

Giolito allowed a massive 41 home runs in 2024, bumping his ERA up to 4.88 even though his 25.7% strikeout rate was still strong and his 9.2% walk rate close to average. From 2019 to 2023, he had a 4.11 ERA, 28.3% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate in almost 800 innings.

Red Sox Hire Dillon Lawson As Assistant Hitting Coach

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The Red Sox announced that Dillon Lawson has been promoted to the role of assistant hitting coach.  Lawson had been with the Sox for the last year as the club’s minor league hitting coordinator, and he’ll now take over the role left open by Luis Ortiz, who was one of six coaches Boston announced wouldn’t be returning for the 2025 season.  Last week, MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam suggested that Lawson was seen as a logical candidate for the assistant hitting coach job.

This will be Lawson’s second stint on a big league coaching staff, after his previous job as the Yankees’ hitting coach for the 2022 season and the first half of the 2023 season.  Somewhat infamously, Lawson became the first coach longtime Yankees GM Brian Cashman ever fired partway through a season, as Cashman installed former MLB veteran Sean Casey as New York’s new hitting coach as the team resumed play after the All-Star break.  The change didn’t work, as the Yankees actually had a lower wRC+ (92) under Casey than under Lawson (96).

The 39-year-old Lawson had a long coaching career in college ball, including a year as the University of Missouri’s hitting coach in 2017 that was sandwiched between his first two jobs with a Major League team.  Lawson worked as a hitting coach for two separate Astros Single-A affiliates in 2016 and 2018, and then moved on to join the Yankees as a minor league hitting coordinator for the 2019-21 seasons.

Peter Fatse is Boston’s lead hitting coach, with Ben Rosenthal and now Lawson acting as assistants.  The Red Sox ranked in the top ten in most offensive categories in 2024, though a team-wide slump over the last six weeks of the season curtailed Boston’s late bid for a wild card spot.

Doug Bird Passes Away

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11-year MLB veteran Doug Bird passed away late last month, according to an obituary from a North Carolina funeral home. The former Royals, Phillies, Yankees, Cubs, and Red Sox right-hander was 74 years old.

A California native in his early years, Bird was drafted by the Royals in the summer of 1969. He spent the next few years as a starter in the minor leagues before making his big league debut with Kansas City on April 29, 1973 as a reliever. His rookie season out of the bullpen was a strong one, as he pitched to an excellent 2.99 ERA in 102 1/3 innings of work. It was more of the same over the next two years, as Bird would go on to post a 3.01 ERA in 197 2/3 frames from 1974-75.

That strong resume in relief earned Bird a move into the rotation for the Royals’ 1976 season, though he still made 12 appearances out of the bullpen on top of his 27 starts that year. Bird was a solid back-of-the-rotation arm for the Royals that year, posting a 3.37 ERA that clocked in just above league average across his 197 2/3 innings of work. 1976 also saw Bird pitch in the first of three consecutive ALCS match-ups between the Royals and Yankees. He earned the win in Game 4 of the ’76 ALCS with 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball in relief of southpaw Larry Gura.

In 1977 and beyond, Bird moved back into a relief role. That change suited him just fine, as he told Norman L. Macht in a 2003 interview about his career that he preferred working out of the bullpen because starting pitchers were stuck “sitting around for four days doing nothing.” He took a bit of a step back in terms of productivity over his final two seasons with the Royals, as he surrendered a 4.52 ERA in 217 innings spread across 11 starts and 82 relief appearances before being traded to the Phillies in April of 1979. Bird’s stint with the Phillies was short-lived, however, as he struggled through one season with the club before being released by the club.

That led Bird to sign on with the Yankees, and he enjoyed something of a career renaissance with the club in the early 1980’s. While he donned pinstripes for just parts of two seasons, he was nothing short of excellent out of the Bronx bullpen during that time with a 2.68 ERA in 104 dominant innings of work. He was traded to Chicago partway through the 1981 season, however, and found himself moved back into a rotation role with the Cubs. The experiment went pretty well down the stretch that year, as Bird posted an above-average 3.58 ERA in 75 1/3 innings of work across 12 starts, but the 1982 season left much to be desired as he surrendered a 5.14 ERA in 191 innings before being traded to the Red Sox for the final season of his career. He pitched 67 2/3 frames for Boston before retiring that September at the age of 33.

Across his 11 seasons in the major leagues, the right-hander went 73-60 with a 3.99 ERA in 1213 2/3 innings of work. Those of us at MLBTR extend our condolences to Bird’s family, friends, and loved ones.

MLBTR Podcast: The World Series, The White Sox Reportedly For Sale, And Tropicana Field

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The upcoming World Series (0:30)
  • White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf reportedly talking about selling the team (4:35)
  • The hurricane damage to Tropicana Field and the complicated situation the Rays are in (18:10)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Should the Guardians trade Josh Naylor and what would the return look like? (27:05)
  • What would a Masyn Winn or Alec Burleson extension look like? Could the Cardinals still hammer out a deal even with the current budget constraints? (35:00)
  • What do you think the Red Sox will do this winter? (42:05)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Changes In Minnesota, Cubs’ Prospect Depth, And Possibilities For The O’s – listen here
  • Previewing FA Starting Pitchers, TV Deals, And Potential Spending Teams – listen here
  • Buster Posey Takes Over In SF And The Cardinals’ Succession Plan – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

We looked at the candidates for a qualifying offer on the position player side yesterday. Today, it’s a look at the pitchers, where there are a couple borderline calls.

No-Doubters

These are the easiest QO decisions in the pitching class. Burnes and Fried are two of the three best pitchers available. (Blake Snell is ineligible.) They’ll reject the QO just as easily as their teams make the offer. Burnes will set his sights on a $200MM+ deal, while Fried should land five or six years well into nine figures.

As a revenue sharing recipient, Baltimore will get the top compensation if Burnes signs elsewhere for more than $50MM: a pick after the first round in next summer’s draft. Atlanta exceeded the luxury tax threshold, so they’ll receive minimal compensation. The Braves would get a selection after the fourth round if Fried departs.

Likely

Manaea will hit free agency once he makes the easy call to decline his $13.5MM player option. The southpaw ran with a full rotation opportunity in Queens after spending most of the ’23 season working in multi-inning relief with San Francisco. Manaea took all 32 turns and logged 181 2/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball. He fanned a quarter of his opponents against an 8.5% walk rate while running a solid 11.7% swinging strike percentage. Manaea was dominant down the stretch, working to a 3.16 ERA while holding opponents to a .182/.251/.327 slash after July 1.

The veteran left-hander turns 33 in February. He should be in line for at least a three-year deal. Four is a real possibility. It’s hard to see Manaea accepting a QO. If he did, the Mets would probably be happy to have him back for just over $21MM (although it’d be a $44MM+ commitment after luxury taxes). This isn’t quite a lock to the same extent as the Burnes and Fried calls, but it’d be surprising if the Mets didn’t make the offer.

Borderline Calls

Severino is a trickier call for New York. He signed a one-year, $13MM pillow contract last offseason. Like Manaea, he stayed healthy and provided 30+ starts of mid-rotation production. Severino worked to a 3.91 earned run average through 182 innings. He was markedly better than he’d been during his final season with the Yankees. Still, it wasn’t a return to the form he’d shown early in his career in the Bronx.

The 30-year-old righty struck out a league average 21.2% of opposing hitters. He kept the ball on the ground at a solid 46% clip while walking just under 8% of batters faced. Those are all decent but not outstanding peripherals. Severino continued to struggle to miss bats on a per-pitch basis. His 9.4% swinging strike rate ranked 91st out of 126 pitchers with 100+ innings. Severino still has plus velocity, but his production is more in line with that of a third or fourth starter than a top-of-the-rotation force.

New York could be fine with that. If the Mets expect him to repeat this year’s production, $21.05MM is a decent investment. It’d again be $44MM+ after taxes, but Steve Cohen hasn’t shied away from huge CBT bills. Severino could be the player whose market value is most affected by whether he receives the QO. There are parallels to where Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker stood as free agents. Neither of those pitchers got a qualifying offer; they each landed four-year deals in the $70MM range. That kind of contract would be a tougher sell if a team is also giving up a draft pick.

The Mets would only get a post-fourth round pick as compensation if Severino declines the QO and walks. That’s not much. It’d be a prospect who might sneak into their organizational top 30. The offer is only worthwhile if the Mets would be happy to have Severino back at that price point. We’ll see in a few weeks how highly they value him.

Wacha’s two-year, $32MM free agent deal allows him to opt out after this season. The veteran righty should retest the market after a strong year in Kansas City. He turned in a 3.35 ERA across 166 2/3 innings. Wacha missed a bit of time in June with a small fracture in his left foot, but he was otherwise durable. It’s the second-highest inning total of his career and his third straight season allowing fewer than 3.50 earned runs per nine.

It’s not the flashiest profile. Wacha’s swing-and-miss and grounder rates are just alright. He has plus control and generally does a strong job avoiding hard contact. He’s not going to be valued as an ace, but he continues to churn out quality results despite playing on his sixth team in as many years.

An offer just north of $21MM might feel rich for Kansas City, but it’s not that much higher than the $16MM salary which they paid Wacha this past season. The Royals got what they wanted in year one, as Wacha joined Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo as a rotation nucleus that helped push them to a surprise trip to the AL Division Series.

This is a situation where the player accepting a qualifying offer might work out well for everyone involved. It’d give Wacha a $5MM+ raise and allow him to spend multiple seasons with a team for the first time since he left the Cardinals in 2019. Kansas City could keep their rotation intact. If the Royals don’t make the QO, Wacha has a shot at three years and a guarantee above $40MM going into his age-33 campaign. That’d be less likely if he’s attached to draft compensation.

Long Shots

Bieber could’ve been a QO candidate had he been healthy. He blew out after two fantastic starts and underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Bieber could return in the first half of next season, but he’d probably accept a qualifying offer. That’s likely too risky for Cleveland, though they could try to bring him back on an incentive-laden deal that allows him to approach $20MM if he stays healthy.

Hoffman is one of the best relievers in the class. He has had a dominant two-year run with Philadelphia, working to a 2.28 ERA in 118 2/3 innings. There’s no precedent for teams making a qualifying offer to non-closing relievers, though. The rare reliever QO has generally gone to pitchers with longer track records than Hoffman possesses and at least one full season of closing experience (i.e. Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias, Will Smith, Greg Holland, Wade Davis, Kenley Jansen).

Martinez is going to decline a $12MM player option with Cincinnati. If he doesn’t get the QO, he’ll get another multi-year deal that could push beyond $30MM. Martinez had a third consecutive strong season, turning in a 3.10 ERA over 142 1/3 innings while working in a swing role. He started 16 of 42 appearances. If the Reds were committed to giving Martinez a rotation spot, there’d be an argument for the offer. A salary north of $21MM is a hefty sum for a player who has never really held a full-time starting job in MLB, though. The Reds spent around $100MM on player payroll this year. If they stay in that range, a Martinez QO would risk tying up more than 20% of their budget.

Pivetta has been durable and routinely posts plus strikeout and walk rates. He throws hard, misses bats and fares well in the eyes of ERA estimators that place a heavy emphasis on a pitcher’s K/BB profile. Nevertheless, he’s never had a season with a sub-4.00 earned run average. Pivetta gives up a bunch of hard contact and always allows more home runs than the average pitcher. He’s a solid innings eater, but the Sox have had four-plus seasons to try to unlock another gear and haven’t been able to do so. He’d likely accept the QO if offered. Boston probably prefers to keep that money in reserve and look for a clearer top-of-the-rotation arm.

Ineligible

Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. Eovaldi, Scherzer and Snell each have a previous QO. Snell and Eovaldi would’ve been easy calls if they could’ve received them.

The midseason trade took the QO off the table for Flaherty, Kikuchi and Scott. The latter wouldn’t have gotten one from the Marlins in either case, but he’s the top reliever in the class. Flaherty would’ve been a lock for the QO if the Tigers hadn’t traded him at the deadline. Getting moved to the Dodgers gives him a chance to pitch in the World Series and took draft compensation off the table for his return trip to free agency. Kikuchi dominated after a deadline deal to the Astros and could command something like the QO salary on a three-year deal covering his ages 34-36 seasons.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

No-Doubters

There’s zero suspense with this quintet. They’re going to receive qualifying offers, which they’ll easily decline. Soto is on his way to a record-setting deal. Adames and Bregman are locks for nine figures. Alonso has a solid chance to get there as well. It’s tougher to envision a $100MM contract for Santander, but he shouldn’t have any issue securing three or four years at an average annual value that’s around the QO price. As revenue sharing recipients, the Brewers and Orioles will get picks after the first round in the 2025 draft (assuming Adames and Santander sign for more than $50MM). The Mets, Yankees and Astros all paid the luxury tax and would only get a pick after the fourth round if they lose their qualified free agents.

Likely Recipients

We placed Hernández in the “likely” bucket last offseason when he was coming off a down year with the Mariners. Seattle opted not to make the QO and let him walk, citing a desire to cut back on the swing-and-miss profile that Hernández brings. That paved the way for the Dodgers to add him on a heavily deferred $23.5MM pillow contract. It was one of the best value signings of the winter. Hernández returned to peak form, bopping a career-best 33 homers with a .272/.339/.501 line through 652 plate appearances. That’s more than enough power to live with a few strikeouts and a fringy defensive profile in the corner outfield.

The cherry on top for L.A. is that Hernández remains eligible for the QO in his return to free agency. The Dodgers could accommodate a $21MM salary in the unlikely event that he accepts. As luxury tax payors, they’d only receive a pick after the fourth round in next year’s draft if he declines and walks. That minimal compensation is the biggest reason Hernández isn’t a lock, but he’s very likely to decline the QO in search of three or four years. The downside if he accepts is that he returns at a similar price point to the one Los Angeles offered coming off a rough season. Opting against the QO only makes sense if the Dodgers are fully committed to giving Andy Pages a look in left field next season.

Walker has seized upon a late-career opportunity with the Diamondbacks to develop into one of the sport’s best first basemen. He’s a Gold Glove caliber defender who topped 30 homers in both 2022 and ’23. He’d have gotten there again this season if not for an oblique injury that cost him the entire month of August. Walker had to “settle” for 26 homers with a .251/.335/.468 slash over 130 games.

The South Carolina product turns 34 just after Opening Day. He’s looking at four years at most and could wind up signing for two or three seasons. That could come at a comparable AAV to the qualifying offer price, though, and this is likely Walker’s only chance to really cash in on a multi-year contract. He’d likely decline a QO. If he didn’t, the D-Backs should be happy to have him back for another season at just over $21MM. The majority of MLBTR readers agree; more than 70% of respondents in a poll over the weekend opined that the Diamondbacks should make the offer.

Long Shots

It’s tough to see a qualifying offer for anyone in this group. Goldschmidt is the least likely. The Cardinals are entering a retooling year and he’s coming off the worst season of his career. The former MVP hit better in the second half than he did in the first. He should land a strong one-year deal but isn’t likely to get to $21MM.

Kim looked like a lock for the QO before suffering a late-season labrum injury in his throwing shoulder. He underwent surgery that’ll almost certainly sideline him into the early part of next year. There’s a decent chance he’d accept, which isn’t a great outcome for a Padres team that may enter the offseason already up against the budget. Payroll is a similar concern regarding Profar, who is coming off easily the best season of his career. He’s been wildly inconsistent throughout his decade-plus in the big leagues. San Diego baseball operations president A.J. Preller loves Profar, but $21MM+ is a lot for a team with a massive arbitration class and needs at shortstop and in the rotation. The Padres could try to bring him back for three or four years at a lesser annual hit.

O’Neill had a productive season for the Sox, hitting 31 homers with a .241/.336/.511 slash. He added three more IL stints to his lengthy career injury history, though, and the overwhelming majority of his production came against left-handed pitching. O’Neill’s righty bat provides a nice balance in a Boston lineup that skews heavily to the left side, but the QO price feels steep for this profile. There’s a strong chance he’d accept.

Torres would not have warranted a mention on this list a couple months ago. He had an excellent finish to the regular season (.306/.375/.417 after August 1) and has a .297/.400/.432 slash with more walks than strikeouts in October. That’s enough to at least get him back on the radar, but a QO still feels like a stretch. He’s a poor defensive second baseman whose overall season line — .257/.330/.378 in 665 plate appearances — was essentially league average.

At the trade deadline, the Yankees seemed set to turn the keystone to Jazz Chisholm Jr. and let Torres walk. They could keep Chisholm at the hot corner, but they’d need to overlook the flaws Torres showed for a good portion of the regular season. There’s a strong chance he’d accept a QO, which would put the Yanks on the hook for more than $44MM after accounting for the corresponding luxury tax hit. Tying that money up a week into an offseason where they’ll face a massive bidding war on Soto probably isn’t happening. That’s especially true since the compensation they’d receive if Torres declines (a pick after the fourth round) isn’t particularly valuable.

Ineligible

Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. That’s largely a moot point with regard to the position player class, as no one from this group was likely to receive one anyways. Bellinger probably won’t opt out of the two years and $50MM left on his deal with the Cubs. Conforto and Pederson would’ve been fringe candidates at best even if they hadn’t received the offer earlier in their careers.

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