- The Red Sox are one of many teams facing some tough 40-man roster decisions this winter, and NBC Sports Boston’s John Tomase takes a look at some of the prospects under consideration to receive roster spots. Some decisions are easier than others, as shortstop/center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela will certainly be added to the 40-man following a great season at the high-A and Double-A levels. Rafaela hit .299/.342/.539 with 21 homers and 28 steals over 522 combined plate appearances at the two levels in 2022, and also flashed some excellent defense at multiple positions.
Red Sox Rumors
Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are trying to bounce back from a last-place finish in the AL East, but they face the possible departure of a longtime star.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Trevor Story, IF: $120MM through 2027 (includes $5MM buyout of $25MM club option for 2028; Story can opt out after 2025 season)
- Xander Bogaerts, SS: $60MM through 2025, $20MM club option for 2026 (Bogaerts can opt out of contract after 2022 season)
- Chris Sale, SP: $55MM through 2024, with $20MM club option for 2025 ($20MM of guaranteed money is deferred; Sale can opt out of contract after 2022 season)
- Eric Hosmer, 1B: $39MM through 2025 (Padres covering all but the annual minimum MLB salary; Hosmer can opt out of contract after 2022 season)
- Garrett Whitlock, SP/RP: $17.75MM through 2026 (includes $1MM buyout of $8.25MM club option for 2027; Red Sox also have a $10.5MM club option for 2028, with a $500K buyout)
- Enrique Hernandez, IF/OF: $10MM through 2023
- Matt Barnes, RP: $9.75MM through 2023 (includes $2.25MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2024)
Option Decisions
- James Paxton, SP: $13MM club options for both the 2023 and 2024 seasons, to be exercised at the same time; if Red Sox decline the options, Paxton has a $4MM player option for 2023
- Tommy Pham, OF: $6MM mutual option for 2023 ($1.5MM buyout)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Ryan Brasier (5.109): $2.3MM
- Rafael Devers (5.070): $16.9MM
- Nick Pivetta (4.166): $5.9MM
- Franchy Cordero (4.092): $1.5MM
- Alex Verdugo (4.078): $6.9MM
- Rob Refsnyder (4.048): $1.6MM
- Christian Arroyo (4.036): $2.2MM
- Josh Taylor (3.121): $1.1MM
- Reese McGuire (3.027): $1.3MM
- Yu Chang (3.007): $900K
- Non-tender candidates: Cordero, Taylor, Chang
Free Agents
With a 78-84 record in baseball’s most competitive division, the Red Sox suffered their fifth last-place finish in the last 11 seasons. It is the latest dip in a strangely inconsistent era for the franchise, as the Sox have also captured two World Series titles from five postseason appearances in that same 11-year stretch. The presence of certain tentpole stars (i.e. David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers) have helped the Sox make these quick turn-arounds, and yet that stability isn’t as apparent heading into 2023.
Bogaerts’ fate is the biggest question facing the Red Sox as the offseason begins, as the shortstop is expected to test free agency and opt out of the final three years and $60MM on his contract. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and members of the ownership group have all said both publicly and privately that they want to retain Bogaerts, the shortstop wasn’t dealt at the trade deadline, and Bogaerts has repeatedly stated that his preference would be to remain in Boston. However, the Sox reportedly made a curiously low offer (one additional year and $30MM added onto Bogaerts’ current deal) during Spring Training extension talks, and already seemed to be laying the groundwork for Bogaerts’ departure by signing All-Star shortstop Trevor Story last offseason.
Since free agency doesn’t officially open until five days after the World Series is over, the Sox still have some time to negotiate with Bogaerts and agent Scott Boras. While it isn’t totally uncommon to see notable players work out new extensions this close to the open market, the air of finality that has seemed to hang over Bogaerts’ Red Sox tenure creates plenty of doubt that a new deal can indeed be reached, before or after the Sox have to start bidding against other teams for Bogaerts’ services.
Between Bogaerts and outright free agents like J.D. Martinez and Nathan Eovaldi, this offseason could mark something of the end of an era in Boston, especially after longtime catcher Christian Vazquez was already dealt to the Astros at the trade deadline. That said, the Vazquez deal was the only rebuild-esque move made at the deadline, as the Sox otherwise kept most of their veterans and even added more experienced help in Tommy Pham and Eric Hosmer.
That attempt at a last-minute push for a wild card berth well fell short, leaving the Sox slightly above the luxury tax threshold (and the only one of the six tax-paying teams to not reach the playoffs). The actual $900K in taxes is a relative drop in the bucket, but the Red Sox now face added penalties in regards to qualifying-offer free agents this winter. Should the Sox sign a QO-rejecting free agent, they’ll have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2023 draft. Also, the compensatory pick that the Red Sox would themselves receive if a QO-rejecting free agent — like Bogaerts or Eovaldi — signed elsewhere will now fall after the fourth round of the draft.
The luxury tax penalty adds another wrinkle to a busy offseason for Bloom. It is worth mentioning that Bloom’s immediate predecessors in the job (Dave Dombrowski and Ben Cherington) were each fired after four years or less, even though both had overseen a World Series champion during their tenure. While ownership may be more patient this time around, Bloom has thus far sandwiched a trip to the 2021 ALCS between two last-place finishes, so he could be facing extra pressure to get the Red Sox back to contention.
In fairness, the Sox were a lot more competitive than your usual last-place team, and might have been contenders in any other division. (Boston had an ugly 26-50 record against AL East opponents but were a dominant 52-34 against non-division clubs.) The Red Sox might’ve made more of a charge in 2022 if they’d had had only an average number of injuries, yet the AL East is so competitive that the Sox can hardly just run things back and hope for better health next year, especially with so much key personnel slated for free agency.
All of the potential departures do leave a lot of open payroll space heading into the winter, and yet though Bloom is the CBO of a team that surpassed the luxury tax threshold, splashy moves haven’t really been Bloom’s forte. Story’s six-year, $140MM deal is far and away the largest contract given to a free agent during Bloom’s tenure, as the Red Sox have mostly preferred to look for value in shorter-term free agent deals and lower-profile trades and acquisitions.
Could this be the year that Bloom truly splurges on the open market? Signing Jacob deGrom or Justin Verlander would be a big way of upgrading the pitching staff, or making a push for Aaron Judge would add more fuel to the fire of the Red Sox/Yankees rivalry. While Bloom’s front office has routinely at least checked in with many of the top free agents of the last few seasons, his propensity to swing trades is another avenue for roster improvement.
For instance, Boston has the financial flexibility to take on a pricey contract from a team looking to cut payroll — whether that big contract belonged to a player the Sox are targeting, or a player whose deal the Sox are willing to eat in order to obtain another player they really want. With so much money coming off the books, the Red Sox might be able to reload their roster and still stay under next year’s $232MM tax threshold.
Story’s first Boston season wasn’t a triumph, as he hit .238/.303/.434 in 396 plate appearances and played in only 94 games due to a hairline fracture in his wrist and then a late-season heel contusion. He is the obvious choice to move back to his old shortstop position if Bogaerts leaves, though Story could potentially remain at second base if the Red Sox signed another big-name free agent shortstop (such as Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, or Dansby Swanson). Such a scenario may be less likely than Boston spending its biggest money at another position, but if any of the major shortstop are open to an opt-out clause after a couple of seasons a la Story, there could be room for the Red Sox to strike.
Keeping Story at second base might be Boston’s preference over moving him to shortstop and going with the respectable but unspectacular collection of internal second-base options. The Red Sox reached an early extension with Enrique Hernandez to keep him off the free agent market, but Hernandez might ultimately offer more value as a regular center fielder. Even if Hernandez only sees limited time in the infield, Christian Arroyo and Rob Refsnyder — who hit very well after joining the Sox on a minors contract — figure to take a good chunk of the playing time. Another acquisition could be added to this group, and the Red Sox would also love to see former top prospect Jeter Downs get on track at the MLB level after struggling in his last two minor league seasons.
Speaking of top prospects, Triston Casas made his Major League debut in 2022 and had a respectable .766 OPS over his first 95 PA in the Show. Casas figures to get the bulk of playing time at first base, with Hosmer on hand as a veteran complement since Hosmer isn’t likely to exercise his own opt-out clause. It’s something of an imperfect combination since both Casas and Hosmer are left-handed hitters, yet DH at-bats could be available if Martinez isn’t retained, or the Red Sox might end up parting ways with Hosmer if another roster upgrade opportunity presents itself.
After Vazquez was traded, the Reese McGuire/Connor Wong tandem delivered quality defense, and McGuire hit well at the plate. Boston might look to emulate the Astros, Guardians, Cardinals, Yankees, and Rays as contenders who prioritize defense and game-calling over offense from the catcher’s position, but Bloom has said that the Red Sox will at least explore other options. A reunion with Vazquez might not be entirely out of the question, or the Sox might pursue a longer-term catcher like Athletics trade candidate Sean Murphy.
Devers is both the biggest sure thing on Boston’s roster heading into 2023, and also its biggest long-term question mark. The third baseman is coming off another strong offensive year, but he is also a free agent after the 2023 season, and (as with Bogaerts) extension talks this past spring didn’t yield much progress. Bloom has been emphatic that Devers isn’t a trade candidate this offseason or in the foreseeable future, and even if more contract negotiations don’t lead to a new deal, it is probable that the Red Sox wouldn’t consider swapping Devers until the trade deadline at the earliest.
Martinez was still an above-average (119 wRC+) force at the plate in 2022, yet his power numbers dropped off and he made a full-on transition to designated hitter, without a single game played in the field. With Martinez now entering his age-35 season, his time in Boston could be up, as the Red Sox may prefer to rotate multiple players through the DH spot, or give the bulk of DH time to a younger player with more upside.
The outfield is the most logical spot for a new addition, as Hernandez and Alex Verdugo are the only incumbents likely to see a lot of playing time. Franchy Cordero is a non-tender candidate, former top-100 prospect Jarren Duran has yet to establish himself either offensively or defensively in limited MLB playing time, and Pham’s mutual option (like virtually all mutual options) isn’t likely to be exercised. Pham might be brought back on a smaller contract and the Red Sox won’t give up on Duran this soon, but one or even two proven regulars would go a long way towards adding more pop to the lineup.
There are plenty of interesting bats available in free agency, ranging from Judge at the top of the outfield market to other prominent names like Brandon Nimmo, Mitch Haniger, Joc Pederson, and more. Teams like the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, and Giants also stand out as potential trade partners thanks to their surplus of outfield talent, plus any number of other possibilities could emerge given how other clubs adjust their rosters.
While the Red Sox lineup was lacking in power in 2022, it was still a pretty productive (ninth in runs scored) unit overall, even if some of that production will need to be replaced or upgraded. A different challenge is faced with the pitching staff, as the Sox didn’t get good results from either the rotation or bullpen, but have to address some potential key departures.
The advanced metrics didn’t much like Michael Wacha’s work last season, but his one-year, $7MM contract ended up being a nice investment for the Red Sox thanks to Wacha’s 3.32 ERA over 127 1/3 innings. The ageless Rich Hill continued to post solid numbers even in his age-42 season, and another return to Boston is always a possibility, even if Hill has floated the idea of only pitching for part of the season, or pitching for a clear-cut contender.
Re-signing Wacha or Hill might just require one-year deals, but a larger commitment would be necessary to retain Eovaldi, even coming off an injury-hampered season. Eovaldi was limited to 109 1/3 innings and allowed some of the most hard contact of any pitcher in the league, but still delivered a 3.87 ERA. The right-hander was an All-Star as recently as 2021, yet Eovaldi’s checkered injury history and the fact that he’s entering his age-33 season might make the Sox wary of signing him to another longer-term contract.
Chris Sale is a cautionary case in this regard, as he has pitched only 48 1/3 regular-season innings over the life of his five-year, $145MM extension (covering the 2020-24 seasons). The southpaw was limited to only 5 2/3 innings in 2022 due to a variety of injuries, including a stress fracture in his rib, a finger fractured by an Aaron Hicks comebacker, and then a fractured wrist in a bicycle accident. While Sale is expected to be ready to go for Spring Training, the Sox can’t be sure exactly what they’re getting next season — just getting Sale back onto a mound would count as a win at this point, let alone getting him back to his old ace form.
Sale, Nick Pivetta, and rookie Brayan Bello are penciled into three rotation spots, while a pair of other young arms in Josh Winckowski and Kutter Crawford could either be depth options or in competition for a job in Spring Training. The Red Sox figure to keep at least one spot open in the rotation for a competition, or to give Garrett Whitlock another look as a starter. However, acquiring two more starters to eat innings and pitch at the front of the rotation would make this entire group look a lot more capable of competing against the AL East’s big offenses. James Paxton may also be a factor if he (as expected) exercises his $4MM player option in the wake of another injury-marred campaign, yet Paxton has pitched only 21 2/3 innings since the start of the 2020 season, and none at all in 2022 due to a lat strain while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
John Schreiber was one of the bright spots of the season, as the 28-year-old unexpectedly emerged as Boston’s most consistent reliever and a regular ninth-inning choice. Matt Barnes also got some save opportunities down the stretch, as after a rough start to the season and a stint on the 60-day injured list, Barnes returned from the IL in great form. Between these two, Whitlock (if he returns to the bullpen), and Ryan Brasier (who pitched much better than his 5.78 ERA would indicate), the Red Sox have some interesting pieces in the pen, even if more depth is certainly needed. It has never been Bloom’s style to invest too heavily in the pen, so expect more lower-level relief acquisitions rather than a pursuit of a big name like Edwin Diaz.
When the Red Sox finished in last place in 2020, Bloom responded with a big flurry of offseason moves, which provided enough upgrades for the Sox to finish only two games shy of a berth in the 2021 World Series. Of course, the 2021 team had Bogaerts, Devers, and a resurgent Martinez and Eovaldi all firing on all cylinders, and Devers might be the only member of that group wearing a Boston uniform in 2023. As aggressive as Bloom has been in reshaping the Red Sox with under-the-radar or mid-tier transactions, some big swings may be necessary to get the Sox back into contention this time around.
Abraham Almonte Elects Free Agency
The Red Sox announced that outfielder Abraham Almonte (who was designated for assignment earlier this week) cleared waivers and was outrighted off the 40-man roster. Because Almonte has previously been outrighted in his career, he had the right to reject this assignment and become a free agent, and Almonte has indeed opted to hit the open market.
Almonte signed a minor league deal with the Brewers last winter, but didn’t get any time in the big leagues until the Red Sox acquired him in a late-July trade. Almonte ended up playing 15 games with Boston in September and October, hitting .257/.297/.400 over his small sample of 37 plate appearances.
It marked the 10th consecutive season of MLB action for Almonte, who has spent his 455 career games with seven different teams, and also spent time (without any Major League action) in the Brewers and Yankees farm systems. Rarely more than a bench option at any of his stops, Almonte has carved out a niche as a solid defensive outfielder capable of playing any of the three positions. He provided some helpful depth for the Braves in 2021, filling in in the outfield in the wake of Ronald Acuna Jr.’s ACL tear and eventually earning the first World Series ring of his career.
Designating and outrighting Almonte essentially serves as an early non-tender for the Red Sox, as Almonte was eligible for arbitration and projected to earn $900K. The 33-year-old will now get an early jump in free agency and look to catch on with yet another club on another minors contract.
Red Sox Claim Jake Reed, Designate Eduard Bazardo
The Red Sox have claimed right-hander Jake Reed off waivers from the Orioles, according to the transactions tracker at MLB.com. Fellow righty Eduard Bazardo was designated for assignment in a corresponding move.
Reed, 30, began the year with the Mets before waiver claims took him to the Dodgers, the Orioles and now the Red Sox, making this his fourth organization of 2022. Between last year and this year, he has a 5.74 ERA in his career, though in a fairly small sample of just 26 2/3 innings. That includes a 19.2% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 39.8% ground ball rate.
He’s generally fared better in the minor leagues and that was the case this year. In 23 1/3 innings on various farms, he put up a 3.09 ERA while striking out 25.5% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. He still has one option year in tact, meaning the Sox can shuffle him between the majors and minors for all of next year as long as Reed continues to hang onto a 40-man roster spot.
For Bazardo, 27, this is the second time this year that the Sox have designated him for assignment. After the first instance in April, he cleared waivers and was outrighted, eventually getting selected back to the roster in September. Between last year and this year, he has 19 1/3 innings of MLB experience with a 2.76 ERA, 18.2% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 40% ground ball rate. In 57 1/3 innings at Triple-A this year, he put up a 3.45 ERA, striking out 23.5% of batters faced, walking 7.5% of them and getting grounders on 42% of balls in play. He has less than a year of MLB service time and a couple of options left, meaning any team that puts in a claim could keep him around as a depth option for the foreseeable future.
Eric Hosmer Gained Full No-Trade Rights With Deal To Red Sox
Eric Hosmer’s contract with the Padres contained a limited no-trade clause, one which became a central topic for a few hours on the day of the deadline. Initially reported to be included in the Juan Soto/Josh Bell swap as a means of offsetting salary, Hosmer used his no-trade rights to block a move to a last-place Washington club.
The Friars and Nats went through with the Soto swap, subbing in Luke Voit instead. San Diego then pivoted and dealt Hosmer to the Red Sox — a team that was not on his no-trade list — along with minor leaguers Corey Rosier and Max Ferguson for pitching prospect Jay Groome. As part of that swap, San Diego agreed to pay down all the remaining money on Hosmer’s contract minus the league minimum.
Hosmer still has three years and $39MM remaining on that deal, as he’ll certainly bypass the chance to opt out and retest free agency this winter. For the next trio of seasons, he’ll also have complete no-trade protection. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports that Hosmer’s contract contains a stipulation that he’d receive a full no-trade clause if San Diego traded him. The move to Boston triggered that provision, giving Hosmer control over any future movement.
While it was hard for the Padres to find a taker for the 12-year veteran on his $144MM deal, a trade from Boston isn’t difficult to envision. With the Red Sox not responsible for any notable chunk of money, they could market Hosmer to other teams for virtually no financial penalty. Boston still would not receive an immense return in that scenario, but he’d be a plausible buy-low candidate for a team seeking a left-handed bat.
Hosmer hit .268/.334/.382 across 419 plate appearances this season. While he was actually far better against left-handed pitching than righties in a small sample this year, he has more typical platoon splits over a multi-year span. Dating back to the start of 2020, he owns a .270/.346/.414 line while holding the platoon advantage. With San Diego on the hook for the salary, Hosmer’s solid bat against right-handed pitching and strong clubhouse reputation could have some appeal on the trade market.
The Red Sox figure to be open to parting with the 32-year-old, as Boston broke in top prospect Triston Casas late in the season. Baseball America’s #19 prospect entering the year, Casas hit .273/.382/.481 across 317 plate appearances at Triple-A Worcester to earn an MLB call in September. While he only hit .197 in his first 27 MLB games, the former first-rounder slugged five home runs and took 19 walks against 23 strikeouts. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom praised Casas’ plate discipline last week (link via Christopher Smith of MassLive) and conceded he “(doesn’t) know yet” whether Boston would be prepared to devote active roster spots to both Hosmer and Casas. Each hits left-handed and is limited to first base or designated hitter. While the Sox will see DH J.D. Martinez hit free agency, they could certainly retain Martinez or bring in another bat in an effort to bolster a lineup that was a hair better than average this season.
Boston’s limited financial commitments to Hosmer mean they presumably wouldn’t have any qualms about releasing him if they felt they were squeezed for flexibility by carrying multiple first basemen. It stands to reason they’d prefer to trade him for even a modest return than release him altogether if it came to that, but the revelation that Hosmer can block any deal adds a wrinkle to that potential scenario, although it’s certainly one of which the Boston front office was aware at the time they acquired him.
Red Sox Claim Caleb Hamilton, Designate Abraham Almonte
The Red Sox have claimed catcher Caleb Hamilton off waivers from the Twins, according to the transactions tracker at MLB.com. Outfielder Abraham Almonte was designated for assignment in a corresponding 40-man move. Chris Cotillo of MassLive confirmed the transactions (on Twitter).
Hamilton changes organizations for the first time in his career. The Oregon State product entered the professional ranks as a late-round Twins draftee back in 2016. He’s spent seven years climbing the minor league ladder and was rewarded with his first big league call when Ryan Jeffers landed on the injured list in mid-July. He appeared in 22 MLB games but only started four times and tallied 23 plate appearances. He struck out in 14 of them, an obviously untenable rate. He did, however, collect his first big league hit — a solo homer off José Quijada.
The 27-year-old spent the majority of the season at Triple-A St. Paul, where he had a solid showing. Over 251 plate appearances, he hit .233/.367/.442 with 11 home runs. He went down on strikes 26.7% of the time and didn’t post a particularly impressive batting average, but he showed the best power of his professional career and worked walks at a stellar 17.1% clip. That patient plate approach is clearly of some interest to the Red Sox, who add Hamilton to Reese McGuire, Connor Wong and Ronaldo Hernandez as backstops on the 40-man roster.
Hamilton only exhausted his first of three minor league options this year. If he holds his spot on the 40-man roster, the Sox can shuttle him between Boston and Triple-A Worcester for the foreseeable future. He’s still three years away from arbitration eligibility, so he’d be an affordable depth option for the Red Sox if they devote him a 40-man position.
Almonte is a journeyman who has gotten to the majors in each of the past nine years. He cracked Boston’s roster after the team had fallen out of contention in September, appearing in 15 games down the stretch. The switch-hitter picked up nine hits, including a homer, in 37 plate appearances. Still, it never seemed likely the Red Sox would tender him an arbitration contract this offseason. His projected $900K salary wasn’t onerous, but he always looked like a temporary stopgap for the season’s final few weeks.
The Red Sox will place Almonte on waivers in the next few days. He’s virtually certain to clear and elect free agency, as is his right as a player with more than five years of MLB service. The 33-year-old is coming off a .293/.417/.534 showing in Triple-A, so he shouldn’t have an issue finding another minor league opportunity with a Spring Training invitation this winter.
34 Players Become Free Agents
The Wild Card round of the 2022 postseason begins today, but for the majority of teams and players, the offseason is now underway. With that will come plenty of roster formalities, including veteran players who’ve been outrighted off their respective teams’ rosters reaching minor league free agency. This week, there have been 34 such instances throughout the league, per the transactions log at MiLB.com.
None of these are a surprise, to be clear. Any player who is not on his team’s 40-man roster at season’s end but has three-plus years of Major League service time, multiple career outright assignments and/or seven-plus seasons in the minors has the right to elect free agency. Everyone in today’s group of players falls under that umbrella. The majority of the group will likely find minor league deals over the winter, although a few of the players in question could potentially find a big league deal as a bench piece or middle-inning reliever.
There will be several more waves of players of this ilk, and we’ll make note of them in bunches over the coming weeks as we await the launch of Major League free agency, when all unsigned players with at least six years of Major League service time will reach the open market. For now, here’s the first of what will likely be several waves of newly minted minor league free agents:
Catchers
- Taylor Davis (Pirates)
- Dustin Garneau (Tigers)
- Andrew Knapp (Giants)
- Pedro Severino (Brewers)
Infielders
- Willians Astudillo (Marlins)
- Johan Camargo (Phillies)
- Michael Chavis (Pirates)
- Matt Davidson (Athletics)
- Dixon Machado (Giants)
- Richie Martin (Orioles)
- Josh VanMeter (Pirates)
- Tyler Wade (Yankees)
Outfielders
- Greg Allen (Pirates)
- Lewis Brinson (Giants)
- Jaylin Davis (Red Sox)
- Jonathan Davis (Brewers)
- Jackson Frazier (Cubs)
- Brett Phillips (Orioles)
Pitchers
- Tyler Beede (Pirates)
- Austin Brice (Pirates)
- Miguel Del Pozo (Tigers)
- Jerad Eickhoff (Pirates)
- Luke Farrell (Reds)
- Paul Fry (Diamondbacks)
- Eric Hanhold (Pirates)
- Travis Lakins Sr. (Orioles)
- Mike Mayers (Angels)
- Daniel Mengden (Royals)
- Juan Minaya (Nationals)
- Sean Newcomb (Cubs)
- Dillon Peters (Pirates)
- Dereck Rodriguez (Twins)
- Cesar Valdez (Angels)
- Aneurys Zabala (Marlins)
Red Sox Notes: Devers, Hosmer, Casas, Coaching Staff, Catcher
This afternoon, Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, GM Brian O’Halloran, president Sam Kennedy, and manager Alex Cora spoke with the media (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe and Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic) to put a wrap on the 2022 season and provide clarity for the team’s offseason moves.
The quartet made it clear that Xander Bogaerts is a top priority, with Bloom stating that the Red Sox are “going to work really hard” at creating a deal with the long-term shortstop. Bloom continued, adding that he hopes that the Red Sox can get a deal done before the Bogaerts opts out and that the Bogaerts deal is “something that we can work on right away.”
Bogaerts had previously signed a six-year, $120MM extension in 2019 with an opt out after the 2022 season. The star shortstop has not officially stated whether he will exercise the opt out, but he’s a lock to do so and earn far more on the open market. Bogaerts said yesterday he and the team have not had any recent extension talks.
Bogaerts has been the Red Sox’s longest-tenured player, having made his debut as a 20-year-old in August 2013 and winning two World Series with the club. Since his debut, the recently turned 30-year-old has continued to develop and post strong results, slashing .307/.377/.456 with 15 home runs and 38 doubles in the 2022 season. Over the past five seasons, Bogaerts has posted a .301/.373/.508 slash line for a strong .880 OPS with 105 home runs, earning three All-Star berths and MVP consideration in the previous four seasons, finishing in fifth during the 2019 season.
If Bogaerts leaves the team, the Red Sox have options internally. Trevor Story, signed to a six-year, $140MM contract during the 2021 offseason, has considerable experience at short. However, Story has expressed a preference to remain at second and retain Bogaerts at short. Utility men Kiké Hernández and Christian Arroyo both have experience at shortstop, but neither produces an offensive output comparable to Bogaerts.
Additionally, Red Sox’s top prospect Marcelo Mayer, ranked as the seventh-best prospect by MLB.com, just finished his first full minor league season, posting a strong .280/.399/.489 line across Low-A and High-A. MLB.com currently projects the 19-year-old to make his debut during the 2024 season. However, Bloom said that prospects who are years away from the Majors will not impact the Red Sox’s approach to their 2023 team.
Transitioning to Rafael Devers, the slugger said on Wednesday that he’d be open to discussing a long-term deal this offseason (via Rob Bradford of WEEI). The Red Sox and Devers reportedly weren’t close during their Spring Training negotiations, but Bloom reiterated today “we would like to” explore a long-term deal with Devers, per Speier.
Devers is headed into his final season of arbitration eligibility, as Mookie Betts was before his blockbuster trade to the Dodgers. Bloom dismissed the possibility of trading Devers, saying that “isn’t on our radar” and that everything the team has done (farm system and payroll-wise) was conducted so that the team “is never in that position [of trading a player like Betts] again.” Bloom added that while it was always possible he’d receive a trade offer that was “stupid to walk away from,” Devers “is a guy that we want to build around.”
Unlike Bogaerts, the Red Sox have fewer internal options to replace Devers at the hot corner. Arroyo and Hernandez are capable of playing there, but, like is the case with shortstop, neither of them provides the offensive output that Devers brings to the team. Bobby Dalbec could be a contender for third base. However, the righty has yet to consistently produce at the major league level, slashing .232/.298/.456, buoyed by a strong .263/.359/.600 in his late 2020 debut season. Jeter Downs and Ryan Fitzgerald are both Triple-A candidates that could see some time if needed, but both will likely continue their development in Triple-A.
Similar to Meyer, ninth-best prospect Blaze Jordan just finished his first full minor league season. Across Low-A and High-A, the 19-year-old posted a combined .289/.363/.445 line. Jordan is also projected to make his debut during the 2024 season, which may be sped up to align with a Devers departure.
Moving to the other side of the infield, Bloom touched on the arrivals of Eric Hosmer and Triston Casas. “I don’t know yet,” he admitted when asked if there was room on the roster for two left-handed first basemen, per Christopher Smith of Mass Live. “Obviously, when we got Hoz, we were focused on what he could bring to us right now and not wanting to rush Triston. I think after that, Triston showed us in Triple-A, coming back off that injury once he got settled in, really the best we’ve seen from him or at least I’ve seen since I’ve been here. … It’s something we’re going to have to look at.”
Hosmer was acquired at the trade deadline and posted a weak .244/.320/.331 line with the Red Sox in 45 at-bats. He arrived with three years remaining on his eight-year, $144MM contract that he signed in 2018 with the Padres, but San Diego is paying down all but the league minimum salary. Hosmer certainly won’t opt of the remaining $39MM on his deal, but Boston could move from the veteran at virtually no financial cost if they wanted to turn to Casas full time.
Casas is Boston’s second-best prospect, after Mayer, and is ranked as the No. 25 prospect by MLB.com. The slugger made his debut in early September and finished the season going 15-for-76 (.197) with 23 strikeouts. However, he had a strong 20% walk rate, a .358 on-base percentage, and sent five balls over the fence. Bloom stated that the Red Sox were happy with how Casas “progressed the last couple months of the season,” noting that “he was a tough at-bat every single time,” and that the team is “excited” to see how he learns from his brief experience in the Show.
Bloom also noted that the Red Sox “fully expect” they’ll look at the possibility of adding to their catching group externally, per Speier. He suggested the Red Sox see Reese McGuire and Connor Wong as having “raised the floor,” but left open the possibility of an impact addition. Willson Contreras is the clear top free agent available at the position, while deadline trade target Sean Murphy could again be made available by the A’s. McGuire has had a strong start to his Red Sox tenure, slashing a strong .337/.377/.500 for a .877 OPS with three homers in 98 at-bats. However, these high numbers are inflated by an astounding .411 BABIP. Wong has been less productive, posting a .188/.273/.315 line, with a high 28.6% strikeout rate.
Meanwhile, Cora announced that the Red Sox hope to bring back their entire coaching staff for the next season, per Chris Cotillo of Mass Live. However, it’s possible some members of the staff could get a chance to interview for managerial positions this winter. Bench coach Will Venable, in particular, has been a frequent candidate for managerial jobs in past offseasons.
Bloom: Bogaerts Is Red Sox’ Top Priority
6:01pm: Sean McAdam of the Boston Sports Journal writes that members of Boston’s ownership group have met with Bogaerts over the past week and expressed similar sentiments privately to Bloom’s public comments about the club viewing Bogaerts as its top priority. Those informal talks didn’t involve Bogaerts’ reps at the Boras Corporation, and McAdam writes that no specific contractual numbers were exchanged.
1:45pm: Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said at today’s end-of-season presser that a new contract for Bogaerts is the team’s top priority, and the process of attempting to extend him will begin immediately (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com). Boston hopes to secure a new deal with Bogaerts before he can even formally exercise his opt-out provision, five days after the World Series ends.
12:45pm: Xander Bogaerts, who can opt out of the three years and $60MM remaining on his contract after the postseason concludes, said following the final game of the season that he hasn’t had any recent talks with the Red Sox about a new contract (link via Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald). He’d indicated back in May that he was open to talks during the season. Bogaerts is planning to head home to Aruba in the next few days and enjoy a mental reset after a long season. “I need it more than a lot of years I’ve been here,” Bogaerts said of his upcoming time at home.
The 2022 season was a difficult one for the Red Sox, who went from missing the 2021 World Series by one game to a last-place finish in the American League East. Boston dealt with myriad injuries, as key names like Chris Sale, Trevor Story, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Enrique Hernandez all spent ample time on the shelf. That said, there were far more than injuries at play. The Sox were hammered by bullpen issues all season, struggled to find quality rotation work beyond the quartet of Eovaldi, Wacha, Nick Pivetta and Rich Hill, and saw several hitters (e.g. Hernandez, Story, Bobby Dalbec, Alex Verdugo and J.D. Martinez) fall shy of their previous levels of contribution.
To a small extent, Bogaerts was part of that offensive downturn. Although he was excellent on the whole, hitting .307/.377/.456 in 631 plate appearances, he hit “only” 15 home runs this season — his lightest showing in the power department since 2017 (both in terms of home run total and ISO). Bogaerts saw declines in his exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate, further supporting the dip in extra-base pop. That said, Bogaerts also picked up the pace in the season’s final couple months, and he and Rafael Devers were still the team’s two best players by a wide margin.
Bogaerts’ postgame comments yesterday contained two repeated themes: he hopes to remain with the Red Sox — the only organization he’s ever known — but is also a different player and person than he was when he signed his original contract extension. Bogaerts said at multiple points that he has grown and matured in recent seasons, adding that he’s “in a different mentality now than I was a couple years ago.”
Bogaerts is a veritable lock to opt out and test free agency. Nothing he said yesterday suggested anything to the contrary, and while the dip in power may be something of a red flag for interested teams, it’s only fair to point out that said downturn was accompanied by a major uptick in his defensive grades. Bogaerts posted negative marks in Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average in each of the four seasons heading into 2022 but was strong across the board at shortstop in 2022 by measure of DRS (4), OAA (5) and Ultimate Zone Rating (5.4).
That could work to his favor in combating the narrative that he’ll need to move to either third base or second base — perhaps sooner than later. Some suitors may still prefer him at another position, and a willingness to play elsewhere can certainly bolster one’s market — just ask Story or Marcus Semien — but the 2022 campaign is a point in his favor if Bogaerts is intent on remaining at shortstop for the foreseeable future.
Regardless of his defensive home, Bogaerts’ bat should carry him to a longer-term, more-lucrative deal than the club-friendly extension he originally signed with the Sox a few years back. He’s been at least 29% better than average at the plate in each of the past five seasons, by measure of wRC+, posting a combined .300/.373/.507 slash with 105 long balls in that time. He’s also been quite durable, incurring just one injury (a small crack in his ankle in 2018) and playing in 91% of the Red Sox’ total games in that half-decade span.
The Red Sox’ public position on the matter has repeatedly been that the team hopes to sign Bogaerts, though the most recent extension offer from the team casts doubt on the plausibility of that outcome. Boston reportedly offered Bogaerts one additional year at a price of $30MM back in Spring Training. That’d have brought Bogaerts to four years and $90MM in total commitment, and it stands to reason that he could more than double that overall guarantee on the open market this winter as he heads into his age-30 season.
Boston has a bit less than $102MM in guaranteed contracts already on next year’s books, although Bogaerts accounts for $20MM of that sum. By 2024, they’ll be down to about $57MM (sans Bogaerts), and by 2025, Story’s contract is the last notable guarantee remaining on the books. The team is perhaps optimistically earmarking some payroll space for a Devers extension, but it’s plenty feasible that all three of Story, Bogaerts and Devers could fit onto the payroll — particularly for a big-market club with little in the way of other major guarantees for other players beyond the 2024 season.
If and when Bogaerts opts out, he’ll be eligible to receive a qualifying offer. He’ll surely receive and reject that, positioning the Red Sox to receive some compensation if he departs as a free agent. However, because the Red Sox finished the 2022 season north of the $230MM luxury tax line (by a reported margin of about $4.5MM), they’d stand to receive a pick between the fourth and fifth rounds of next summer’s draft — as opposed to the pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 that they’d have otherwise received.
Red Sox Claim Easton McGee From Rays
The Red Sox have claimed right-hander Easton McGee off waivers from the Rays, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive. McGee had been designated for assignment on Monday.
McGee, 24, will join just the second organization of his career. He was drafted by the Rays in 2016 and has been with them until today. He’s never been a huge strikeout guy, but has always limited walks and gotten lots of ground balls, though he’s gotten less grounders this year. In 107 2/3 Triple-A innings this season, he registered a 5.43 ERA with a 17.4% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate and 39.6% ground ball rate. He was especially vulnerable to the long ball, surrendering 24 home runs this year.
The Rays selected him to the big league roster a week ago and put him into Sunday’s game. McGee threw three innings in his MLB debut without allowing an earned run, though one unearned run did cross the plate. He was designated for assignment the next day as part of the standard Tampa Bay roster churn.
The Red Sox are evidently intrigued by the 6’6″ righty, nabbing him off waivers on the final day of the regular season. McGee comes with a full slate of options and just a few days of service time, meaning he can be part of Boston’s pitching staff for the foreseeable future, so long as he hangs onto a 40-man roster spot. The club is facing a great deal of turnover in its rotation, with Nathan Eovaldi, Rich Hill and Michael Wacha all slated to reach free agency in a month’s time, making it fairly sensible to reach out and grab another depth option.