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Padres, Diamondbacks Among Teams Interested In Xander Bogaerts

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11:40am: The Athletic’s Peter Gammons cites front office officials from three other teams who are of the belief that Bogaerts will not return to Boston (Twitter link). As he did with regard to Bogaerts playing another position, however, Boras outwardly denied the report, telling Alex Speier of the Boston Globe that Bogaerts is “open to any and all voices in the free agent market” and adding that he and Bogaerts “have not closed any doors on anyone.”

10:04am: Next week’s Winter Meetings are generally expected to serve as a catalyst for what’s been a slow-moving free agent market. As the league’s biggest offseason convention approaches, the interest for some of the top players available is beginning to come into focus.

Xander Bogaerts is part of a loaded shortstop class, and a number of teams have checked in with his representatives at the Boras Corporation. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports the Diamondbacks and Cubs have expressed interest, while adding that previously-reported suitors like the Phillies and Dodgers are in the mix. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller recently checked in with Scott Boras about Bogaerts’ willingness to play a position other than shortstop. Boras, however, flatly rejected the possibility; the agent tells Rosenthal “Xander is playing shortstop” and denied that San Diego would prefer to move him off the position.

San Diego’s interest in Bogaerts isn’t a new development. Marino Pepén listed the Padres as a suitor last week, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post has suggested they’re involved in the top of the shortstop market more generally. The Friars are seemingly serious enough in their pursuit to gauge Bogaerts’ amenability to move off the position.

The infield mix at Petco Park is already crowded, although there are a number of multi-positional options who can move around. Manny Machado is locked in at third base, while the rest of the current infield figures to be made up by some combination of Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth. Kim has proven himself an excellent defensive shortstop and earned an everyday role with a .251/.325/.383 showing this past season. Tatis was expected to be the franchise shortstop after a brilliant start to his career earned him a $340MM extension, but he’s now under consideration for a move to second base or the outfield after missing all of 2022 due to injury and a performance-enhancing drug ban. Cronenworth is a quality defender at the keystone, but the Friars have floated the possibility of kicking him over to first base with Josh Bell and Brandon Drury hitting free agency.

Adding a first base/designated hitter type might be the most straightforward path to building out the offense, but there’s no harm for Preller and his staff in considering other avenues. Adding another middle infielder while kicking Cronenworth to first base would give San Diego an elite defensive infield, while Bogaerts is among the top offensive players available regardless of position. He’s long been mentioned as a candidate to move off shortstop towards the end of a free agent deal after years of subpar defensive marks, but he quieted those concerns (at least in the short term) with arguably the best season of his career with the glove. Bogaerts rated as four runs above average in more than 1200 shortstop innings by both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast this past season. He hasn’t played anywhere else since 2014 and while there’s little question he could handle a less demanding position like second or third base, it doesn’t seem he’s willing to do so.

There are a number of other teams with worse internal options than the Padres that’d surely be willing to plug Bogaerts in at his longtime position. The Diamondbacks relied on rookie Geraldo Perdomo this year, and he looked overmatched to the tune of a .195/.285/.262 line in 500 plate appearances. Nick Ahmed is under contract and can play excellent defense, but he’s always been a below-average hitter and lost almost all of this past season to surgery on his throwing shoulder.

Arizona general manager Mike Hazen is plenty familiar with Bogaerts from his previous work in the Red Sox’s front office, so it’s little surprise they’re interested in adding him given the uncertain shortstop outlook. The question is whether a Diamondbacks team that has had a payroll south of $100MM in each of the past two seasons would be willing to commit a deal of that magnitude. MLBTR predicts a seven-year, $189MM contract for Bogaerts. The D-Backs already have roughly $98MM in salary commitments for next season, per Roster Resource, so adding a salary in the realm of $27MM annually would require owner Ken Kendrick signing off on a major spending hike relative to recent levels.

The Cubs have a cleaner long-term payroll outlook that makes them a viable fit for any of the top shortstops. Nico Hoerner is a quality incumbent, but he’s already expressed a willingness to move to second base to accommodate a big-ticket acquisition. Roster Resource projects Chicago’s 2023 commitments around $127MM, and they’ve opened each of the past two seasons with payrolls in the $140MM to $150MM range. Chicago has pushed spending north of $200MM in the past. There’s room for an aggressive offseason, but president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer and his front office have to weigh whether to invest in the middle infield against other weak points on the roster like center field, first base, catcher and the back of the rotation.

Bogaerts rejected a qualifying offer from the Red Sox, so any signing team will have to forfeit draft choice(s) and/or international bonus pool space to sign him. Boston has consistently maintained retaining him is their top priority, though extension talks dating back at least to Spring Training haven’t gotten anywhere. The Phils are widely expected to be in play for a top shortstop, but reports suggest they’re more dialed in on Trea Turner at the moment. The Dodgers could certainly turn to any of the other shortstops if Turner walks, while the Twins reportedly have Bogaerts as their top fallback if they can’t retain Carlos Correa.

Guardians Made Three-Year Offer To Jose Abreu

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Yesterday, the Astros and first baseman Jose Abreu agreed to a three-year, $58.5MM contract, but it seems a surprising club was close to Houston in the bidding for Abreu’s services. Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that the Guardians made a three-year offer, but that the $60MM range was “beyond their reach.”

The Guardians are usually one of the lowest-spending clubs in the league, so the fact that they didn’t sign a costly free agent isn’t exactly shocking. However, it could perhaps be an indication that they have a greater willingness to spend this offseason than usual. The largest free agent contract in the history of the franchise is the $60MM over three years given to Edwin Encarnacion prior to the 2017 season, coincidentally very similar to the deal Abreu just signed. The Guardians did give José Ramírez $129MM over seven years, though that was an extension and not a free agent deal.

Though many fans will remain skeptical of “at least we tried” reports of teams just missing on free agents, there are reasons to think the Guards might actually have some money to work with this winter. The club ran out a roster full of rookies and other young players in 2022, and it worked tremendously. They went 92-70 and finished atop the American League Central despite a very modest payroll. Roster Resource currently pegs their 2023 spending around $72MM, with no individual player set to earn more than the $14MM Ramírez will get. $9MM of that number is the projected arbitration salary of shortstop Amed Rosario, a name frequently mentioned in trade rumors. That $72MM figure is already a slight upgrade over last year’s Opening Day figure of $68MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but they got as high as $135MM in 2018.

Now that the club is a few years removed from the lost revenues of the pandemic and just got a boost from a surprise postseason run, it’s possible that they are willing to push spending back up near their pre-pandemic levels. It would also make sense from an on-field perspective to build around their bevy of young and talented players while they are still paid at arbitration or pre-arb levels.

If there is some money to be spent, the first base/designated hitter part of the roster is a sensible place to put it. The club has Josh Naylor penciled in as their first baseman but Franmil Reyes flamed out as the designated hitter in 2022 and eventually got put on waivers, going to the Cubs. There would have been an opening for Abreu to step in and split the first base and designated hitter duties with Naylor. It also would make sense to add some extra thump to a lineup that succeeded in 2022 largely by making contact and avoiding strikeouts. The club hit 127 home runs this year, which was 29th in the majors, ahead of only the Tigers. Abreu’s power actually took a step back in 2022, but he still hit 15 home runs and has frequently been a 30-homer bat in the past.

If the Guardians are still willing to pursue this market, there are other options available to them. There are some part-time or role players available such as Trey Mancini or Yuli Gurriel, but the top option is Josh Bell. On MLBTR’s Top 50, he was projected for a $64MM contract over four years. That guarantee is beyond what Abreu got, but at a lower average annual value of $16MM. Since Bell is only 30 years old compared to Abreu’s 36, he will likely require a lengthier commitment, but that lower salary might better suit the Cleveland checkbook. Like Abreu, he would add some thump to the lineup, having hit 17 home runs last year and getting as high as 37 in previous seasons. He also isn’t likely to throw off the club’s low-strikeout style either, as he’s never posted a rate above 19.2% outside of the shortened 2020 season. For context, this year’s league average rate was 22.4% and the Guardians struck out at a collective 18.2% clip.

The Guardians will surely have competition in a pursuit of Bell or any other first basemen they decide to go after. The Padres, Cubs and Marlins were all reported to have been interested in Abreu and they will likely start thinking about the next options on their lists. One other team on that list is the Red Sox, as Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that Abreu was their top free agent target and they met with him as soon as free agency began.

The Red Sox already have something of a cluttered mix of players for their first base and designated hitter spots. Youngsters Triston Casas and Bobby Dalbec are on the 40-man roster along with veteran Eric Hosmer, picked up in a deadline deal with the Padres last year. However, there’s no real reason for them to be especially committed to Hosmer, as the Padres agreed to pay down all of his remaining contract except for the league minimum. Since joining the Padres prior to 2018, he’s been essentially a replacement level player, producing a wRC+ of 100 and 0.3 fWAR. As for Dalbec, he showed some potential in 2020 and 2021 but struggled greatly in 2022, hitting just .215/.283/.369 for a wRC+ of 80 while striking out in 33.4% of his plate appearances.

We can’t know for sure what subsequent moves the Red Sox would have made if they had signed Abreu, but it seems possible they could have looked to trade Hosmer or simply released him if he used his no-trade clause to block a deal. Dalbec could have also found himself on the trading block but he also has options and could have been retained as minor league depth in case Casas, who has just 27 MLB games under his belt, struggled in 2023. He hit five homers in that short sample and walked a bunch but didn’t hit for much average, leading to a lopsided batting line of .197/.358/.408.

The first base market has been quite robust in the early days of the offseason, as Anthony Rizzo already re-signed with the Yankees, the Pirates traded for Ji-Man Choi and Carlos Santana, followed by Abreu signing with the Astros. With several teams seemingly still interested in upgrading their rosters at first, the remaining free agents might see their phones lighting up very soon.

Red Sox Promote Ramon Vazquez To Bench Coach

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Red Sox first base coach Ramon Vazquez is getting a new assignment, as reporter Edwin Hernandez Jr. tweets that Vazquez will take over from Will Venable as Boston’s new bench coach.  Venable joined the Rangers earlier this month to take an associate manager role under Bruce Bochy.

The 46-year-old Vazquez has been a member of Boston’s coaching staff since 2018, first working as a statistical analysis coordinator and then moving into a role as a quality control coach.  Vazquez saw some fill-in work as the first base coach in 2021 before taking over the job entirely for the 2022 season.

Before joining the Red Sox, Vazquez worked as a coach on the Padres’ staff in 2017, and previously as a coach in the Astros’ farm system.  Fans may remember Vazquez from his lengthy and well-traveled playing career, as he suited up for six different MLB teams (including the Red Sox) from 2001-09.  In an interesting tidbit, Vazquez and Alex Cora were actually traded for each other back in July 2005, with Vazquez going to Cleveland and Cora going to the Red Sox — this started Cora’s history in Boston, which has continued into his current role as the team’s manager.

Red Sox Made Two-Year Offer To Brooks Raley Last Offseason

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  • The Red Sox pursued left-hander Brooks Raley in free agency last year, and offered Raley a two-year deal worth roughly $8MM, according to The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier.  Raley ended up signing a two-year, $10MM contract with the Rays, and then had a strong season for Boston’s division rival (Raley’s year included a 0.00 ERA over six innings against the Sox).  Between missing out on Raley and the general lack of quality in Boston’s 2022 bullpen, Speier writes that the Red Sox “came to regret not pursuing relief help more aggressively,” and opines whether or not the team might put more emphasis on relievers this winter.  Chaim Bloom hasn’t spent much on relief pitching in his first three offseasons as the Red Sox chief baseball officer, and thus far this winter, Speier notes that the Sox haven’t yet paid much attention to the relief market, with a larger (and understandable) focus on starting pitching and re-signing Xander Bogaerts.

Latest On Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts

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Shortstop Carlos Correa is one of the top free agent available and he is unsurprisingly drawing plenty of interest. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that eight teams are interested in his services, but the Twins are expected to “go hard” in their attempts to retain him.

Heyman doesn’t mention any teams by name other than the Twins, who are already known to be making a concerted effort to keep Correa in Minnesota. It was reported earlier this week that they have made multiple offers to him, with varying lengths between six and ten years, presumably with higher salaries on the shorter deals and lower salaries on the longer deals. In addition to the Twins, Correa has already been publicly linked in some way to the Giants, Dodgers and Cubs. Since Heyman says eight teams are involved, it appears there are four “mystery teams” at the table.

As to who those mystery teams are, we can only guess, though there would be some logical fits. Mariners’ president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has said the club is planning to pursue shortstops to play second base in deference to J.P. Crawford. The Phillies are known to be looking for a shortstop this winter. The Braves will need to replace Dansby Swanson if they can’t re-sign him but they might not have the financial ability to go after Correa. The Orioles have been speculated as a fit given that general manager Mike Elias was working for the Astros when Correa was drafted and developed, though they don’t have a track record that would suggest they’d give out the type of contract it would require to land him.

One surprising team that could be in the mix is the Padres. Heyman doesn’t directly connect the club to Correa but he does say they are considering the free agent shortstops. The Padres have been extremely aggressive in recent years and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller shouldn’t really be counted out on anyone, but it’s still unexpected to see the club connected to this market. The Friars got by without Fernando Tatis Jr. in 2022, who missed the first half of the season due to a wrist injury and the second half due to a suspension for a positive test for performance-enhancing drugs.

In his absence, Ha-Seong Kim stepped up and had an excellent season. He hit .251/.325/.383 for a wRC+ of 105 while stealing 12 bases and providing excellent defense. All of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average gave him positive grades, allowing him to produce 3.7 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. With Tatis set to return in 2023 once he serves the final 20 games of his suspension, it would seem the position is already crowded enough as it is. However, Heyman’s report indicates the club is open to the idea of moving Tatis to the outfield, something he’s dabbled with in the past, while bumping Kim into a utility role.

It had been previously reported that the club was considering an alignment of Kim at short, Tatis at second and Jake Cronenworth at first. It seems that this new plan would be somewhat similar but with Tatis going to the outfield, perhaps replacing Jurickson Profar, who is now a free agent, in left. Regardless of how it would eventually play out, Heyman lists Xander Bogaerts as their preferred option for this plan. Marino Pepén also connects the Padres to Bogaerts, though he says they are behind the Phillies and the Red Sox in the bidding.

Payroll might be a factor for the Friars, as Roster Resource currently pegs their payroll at $210MM and their competitive balance tax number at $230MM, just under the first CBT threshold of $233MM. The club has nudged over the CBT line in the past two years, but signing a marquee shortstop would surely mean blowing past the first threshold and flirting with the second, which is $253MM. As a third-time payor, the Padres are already facing a 50% tax on all spending over the first the first threshold plus a 12% surcharge on spending over the second. That means every dollar they go over $253MM would be taxed at a 62% rate. The club has continually surprised onlookers with their aggression in recent seasons, meaning it shouldn’t be completely ruled out. But it would be quite a noteworthy escalation, especially with the club connected to other big free agents like José Abreu and Kodai Senga.

As for the Giants, who have been connected to the free agent shortstops for some time, they will have to answer the Brandon Crawford question if they succeed in signing a new shortstop. He’s been with the club since being drafted back in 2008 and has been a mainstay at shortstop for them since 2011. He turns 36 in January, has one year remaining on his extension and is coming off a down year in 2022. He made multiple trips to the injured list and posted a batting line of .231/.308/.344, wRC+ of 87. DRS and UZR were down on his work in the field, but he did earn 7 OAA.

As to how the club would handle a new shortstop with Crawford on the roster, it seems that it would depend who the shortstop is. According to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, Crawford would move to third base if they signed Correa, but Trea Turner or Dansby Swanson would be installed at second base. That’s likely a reflection of the fact that Turner and Swanson have lesser throwing arms than the other two. According to the Statcast arm strength leaderboard among shortstops, Swanson comes 48th out of 50 while Turner is 26th. Crawford is a bit higher at 19 while Correa is at #6. Correa’s excellent arm strength arguably makes him a fit for third base, but his overall defense is superior to Crawford’s at this stage of their careers. Regardless of how sensible the arguments may be, it’s at least a bit surprising that the Giants are apparently willing to supplant Crawford at shortstop under the right conditions.

Red Sox, Narciso Crook Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox have inked outfielder Narciso Crook to a minor league contract, according to the transactions log at MLB.com. The 27-year-old had elected minor league free agency after being waived by the Cubs two weeks ago.

Crook, a 2013 draftee of the Reds, is headed into his 10th year in the professional ranks. That includes three seasons and just under 1000 plate appearances of Triple-A work. Crook was rewarded for his extended climb up the minor league ladder with his first big league call from the Cubs at the end of June. He only appeared in four games but picked up his first two MLB hits before being optioned back to Triple-A Iowa.

In 101 games with Iowa, Crook put together a .260/.345/.492 showing. He connected on 19 home runs and 21 doubles, with that plus power translating to solid overall numbers. He punched out at an elevated 30.3% clip, however, the continuation of career-long strikeout issues that have thus far prevented him from getting a real look against big league pitching.

Crook spent most of the year in right field, logging 539 innings there and 156 1/3 frames in left while starting just three games in center. He’s spent vastly more time in the corners than up the middle throughout his career, putting extra pressure on him to perform offensively.

The Red Sox have a fair bit of uncertainty in their outfield mix heading into 2023. Enrique Hernández and Alex Verdugo look like the favorites for playing time, with Rob Refsnyder, Jarren Duran and the recently-selected Wilyer Abreu making up the rest of the options on the 40-man roster. Hernández is an option for the middle infield as well, while Verdugo has been the subject of loose trade speculation this offseason. Boston’s sure to address the outfield in the coming months. Crook seems a long shot to crack the Opening Day roster given his lack of MLB experience but could play his way into the mix with a strong start for Triple-A Worcester.

Red Sox Acquire Hoy Park

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The Pirates have traded infielder Hoy Park to the Red Sox, according to the transactions tracker at MLB.com (hat tip to Chris Cotillo of Mass Live). Park was designated for assignment yesterday. Going the other way is left-hander Inmer Lobo.

Park, 27 in April, has spent most of his career in the Yankees’ organization. He went to the Pirates in 2021 as part of the trade that sent Clay Holmes to the Bronx. Unfortunately, he didn’t find much success with his new team. He was optioned frequently between the majors and minors this year, hitting .216/.276/.373 in the bigs and .225/.332/.354 in Triple-A. Based on that tepid showing, he lost his roster spot when the Pirates claimed Lewin Díaz.

Despite the lackluster offense, the Red Sox likely were intrigued by Park’s defensive versatility and speed. He’s posted double-digit steal totals in each of his professional seasons when combining different levels, in addition to having played all three outfield positions and every infield position except for first base. If his work at the plate can improve at all, he could be a useful utility option for them.

The club’s position player mix has a bit of uncertainty at the moment, with Trevor Story and Enrique Hernández both candidates to play shortstop. Both players are also capable of playing second base with Hernandez also a candidate for work in center field. Christian Arroyo could play some second with Jarren Duran an option for center while Jeter Downs is also in the infield mix. Park’s versatility could have him moving around based on how those situations play out over time.

As for Lobo, he threw 22 dominant innings over five starts in the Dominican Summer League with a 0.82 ERA, 34.1% strikeout rate and 2.4% walk rate. He’s still quite young, as he won’t turn 19 until February, but he’s an intriguing long-term prospect for the Pirates.

Red Sox Sign Joely Rodriguez

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11:49am: Rodriguez will earn a $500K bonus for reaching each of 30, 60, 90 and 120 days on the active roster in 2023, MLBTR has learned.

10:28am: The Red Sox have signed left-handed reliever Joely Rodriguez to a one-year deal with a club option for the 2024 season, per a team announcement. Rodriguez, a client of L.A. Sports Management, will be guaranteed $2MM in the form of a $1.5MM salary in 2023 and a $500K buyout on a $4.25MM club option for the 2024 campaign, Chad Jennings of The Athletic reports (via Twitter).

MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo tweets that Rodriguez can earn up to $2MM of bonuses based on time spent on the active roster in 2023, plus $250K in each season of the deal based on games pitched. In all, it can max out at $8.25MM over a two-year term. Boston’s 40-man roster is now up to 39 players.

Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Pirates as a teenager back in 2009, Rodriguez bounced to four different organizations before signing with the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball prior to the 2018 season. A strong two-year run with the Dragons (1.85 ERA in 87 2/3 innings) landed Rodriguez a big league deal to return to the Rangers.

Twice traded since that time, the now-31-year-old Rodriguez has spent a season with Texas and both New York clubs, pitching to a combined 4.28 ERA but more encouraging secondary marks. He’s averaged 94 mph on his heater, punched out an above-average 25.5% of his opponents and logged a huge 55.7% ground-ball rate. Despite a higher-than-average 10.3% walk rate, fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.14) and SIERA (3.51) all feel that Rodriguez has pitched a fair bit better than his more rudimentary ERA would otherwise indicate.

In particular, Rodriguez has excelled at limiting hard contact. Last year’s paltry 85.3 mph average exit velocity, 3.8% barrel rate and 31.8% hard-hit rate were all among the lowest marks in the league. Statcast ranked each in the 91st percentile or better among big league pitchers. Rodriguez carried a notable platoon split with the Yankees in 2021 but, upon ramping up his usage of a sinker/changeup combination (at the expense of most of his four-seamers and sliders) was generally tough on lefties and righties alike in 2022. Left-handers hit .233/.320/.326 against him, while righties were actually even worse, at .220/.325/.300.

If Rodriguez can sustain those gains against right-handed opponents and simultaneously rein in his command a bit — he walked 12% of hitters in 2022 but just 8.7% in 2021 — there’s potential for him to elevate his profile and prove to be a quality bargain on this relatively modest deal.

Rodriguez will step into a Boston bullpen that had otherwise been slated to include just one lefty: Josh Taylor. It’s possible that Darwinzon Hernandez or one of recently selected Chris Murphy and Brandon Walter could eventually work their way into the mix, but left-handed bullpen help was a fairly clear area of need for the Sox. They’ve now made at least one move to address that — though others could certainly transpire — and done so in affordable fashion. With Rodriguez on the books, Boston’s payroll sits at a projected $133.8MM, while their luxury-tax ledger is just north of $153MM.

Free Agent Notes: Judge, White Sox, Strahm

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There is an increasing belief that the Dodgers will make a run at AL MVP winner Aaron Judge, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman notes that the Dodgers have freed up $100MM, with Cody Bellinger, Craig Kimbrel, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, David Price, Trea Turner, and Justin Turner no longer on the roster, and that the Dodgers have an outfield gap to fill. Justin Terranova of the New York Post adds that the Dodgers were previously viewed as being on the outskirts of the Aaron Judge sweepstakes, with the Giants posing the biggest threat in his return to the Bronx. The Yankees have already sent the superstar’s camp a new offer, but Terranova notes that the Giants have “indicated that they were willing to break the bank for Judge’s services.”

There has been speculation that Judge, who grew up outside of San Francisco, might be inclined to play closer to home, with Randy Miller of NJ.com noting that the star spends “parts of his offseasons in Linden” but resides in Tampa. For his part, Judge has played coy when asked about his free agency, telling reporters after he won the AL MVP that he is “looking forward to getting the free-agent process going,” but noting that “a lot of stuff doesn’t kick in until the winter meetings in December,” per Terranova.

Elsewhere in the League:

  • White Sox pitching coach Ethan Katz has indicated that his team “need[s] another starter” with Johnny Cueto entering free agency, according to Tim Stebbins of NBC Sports Chicago. Katz adds that Chicago has discussed bringing back Cueto, and it was previously reported that Cueto is open to a return to the team. Inked to a minor league contract in early April, Cueto joined Chicago in late May and posted one of his strongest seasons over the past five years. The 36-year-old worked to a 3.35 ERA in 158 1/3 innings, albeit with a career-low 15.7% strikeout rate and a strong 5.1% walk rate. As noted in MLBTR’s 2022-23 Free Agent Starters article, Cueto’s age, lack of missed bats, and 91 MPH fastball likely won’t earn him a huge deal, but he will almost surely earn a guaranteed rotation spot entering the 2023 season.
  • On the heels of a successful season in Boston, Matt Strahm is in search of an opportunity to start on the free agent market, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. However, Speier notes the seven-year veteran has only discussed bullpen opportunities so far this offseason. Strahm last started during the 2019 season, before transitioning to a bullpen role with the Padres in July of that season. Following a slow recovery from a 2020 patellar tendon surgery on his right knee, he was DFA’d after the 2021 season and subsequently picked up by the Red Sox on a one-year, $3MM deal. Despite being limited to only 27 1/3 innings across the 2020-2021 seasons, Strahm played an integral role in Boston’s pen in 2022, pitching to a 3.83 ERA in 44 2/3 innings and earning four saves. Importantly, after two years of sub-20% strikeout rates, Strahm punched out an above-average 26.9% of opposing batters while walking a solid 8.8%.

Latest On Red Sox Pitching Targets

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The Red Sox have already been linked to multiple free agent pitchers, with such names as Kodai Senga, Andrew Heaney, Seth Lugo, and Tyler Anderson (since signed by the Angels), all reported as names on Boston’s radar, and the Sox also have interest in re-signing two of their own free agents in Nathan Eovaldi and Rich Hill.

Corey Kluber is also on this list, as the right-hander tells Alex Speier of the Boston Globe that he had again had some talks with Boston this winter.  After previously negotiating with the Red Sox in each of the right-hander’s previous two trips to the free agent market, Kluber ended up signing with the Yankees for the 2021 season and then with the Rays in 2022.  Kluber posted a 4.34 ERA and a league-best 1.2 BB/9 over 164 innings with Tampa Bay, and pitching in Boston would have some extra appeal since Kluber and his family live in Winchester, Massachusetts.

While the Red Sox are actively seeking out more arms, Speier writes that it doesn’t appear the team is aiming for the very top of the pitching market.  This means that Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon, and Chris Bassitt are unlikely to be landing in Boston, for a variety of reasons.  In the view of most pundits (including MLB Trade Rumors’ own top 50 free agent list), these are the four established Major League starters likely to score the biggest contracts on the open market this winter, and it seems as though the Red Sox aren’t eager to make quite such a big commitment to a single player.  “The Sox are more likely to spread spending across several targets,” Speier writes, so hypothetically, Boston could sign the likes of Heaney and Eovaldi for less than it would cost to sign Verlander alone just in 2023 salary.

Senga could be something of an exception, as the Japanese ace is drawing enough widespread interest that it now looks like he could land one of the bigger contracts of any pitcher this offseason.  MLBTR projects Senga for five years and $75MM, and while the Red Sox have interest, it is possible the bidding could get beyond their comfort zone.

The qualifying offer is also a factor, as deGrom, Rodon, and Bassitt all rejected the QO and thus have draft compensation attached to their services.  Since the Red Sox surpassed the luxury tax threshold in 2022, they’d face a higher penalty ($1MM in international bonus money, and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2023 draft) for signing a qualifying free agent.  Since Eovaldi and Xander Bogaerts also rejected qualifying offers, the Red Sox could net two compensatory picks back if those player signed elsewhere, yet those picks would only fall after the fourth round as further penalty for exceeding the luxury tax.  In short, the draft-related tradeoff probably means that the Sox would prefer to not sign a QO free agent, all things considered.

This strategy might not hold much appeal to Boston fans, who haven’t been pleased about the big-market team’s approach to spending in recent years.  The Red Sox haven’t had much progress in trying to lock up Bogaerts or Rafael Devers to new contracts, and the team’s desire to reset their tax bill in 2020 was one of the factors behind trading Mookie Betts to the Dodgers.  However, the Sox were willing to go over the tax line this past season, despite only a longshot chance at a playoff berth at the trade deadline.  The Red Sox ended up with a disappointing 78-84 record and now an extra tax burden to boot, in the form of the QO-related penalties.

That said, it was just two offseasons ago that chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom also used the “spread out the spending” strategy to bolster the roster that ended up making the 2021 ALCS.  And, back in the 2012-13 offseason, the Red Sox famously made a number of lower-level acquisitions that all paid off in the best possible fashion, as Boston captured the 2013 World Series.  So there is certainly recent evidence that a more measured approach to the offseason can work out swimmingly, and of course, there is still plenty of quality pitching available even in the second or third tiers of the open market, not to mention what else might emerge in trade talks.

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