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Big Hype Prospects: Salas, Merrill, Yorke, Hence, Mayo

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We missed a week while I was on the injured list (back spasms sustained while diving back to first base). There’s much for us to cover. Let’s start with some high-profile Padres. While the draft is tempting, let’s look in on those guys as they sign.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Ethan Salas, 17, C, SDP (A)
139 PA, 6 HR, 5 SB, .259/.381/.500

When we adjourned two weeks ago, Salas was batting .208/.340/.286 in 94 plate appearances. An 82 wRC+ isn’t anything to sniff at when we’re talking about a guy who’s 17-and-one-month old playing in full-season ball. Over the last two weeks, Salas hit .371/.467/.971. Including a HBP, he has as many free passes as strikeouts during the span. Of his 13 hits, he bopped five homers, four doubles, and a triple. That adds up to a 240 wRC+ for the hot streak and a 133 wRC+ on the season. If he keeps this up for long, he’ll find himself playing against High-A competition before the season ends. He’s “on pace” to debut as a teenager – a feat he can accomplish as long as he reaches the Majors before June 1, 2026.

Jackson Merrill, 20, SS, SDP (A+)
300 PA, 10 HR, 10 SB, .280/.318/.444

Salas’ future teammate had to grind through a rough April before turning a corner. The Midwest League is a difficult hitting environment. His first month of play consisted of a .188/.247/.338 performance. In the three months since then, he’s hit .317/.348/.487 while making steady improvements. Lately, he’s found a power stroke. Since June 14, he’s hit six of his 10 home runs. Merrill isn’t expected to be much of a power hitter. His carrying trait is an advanced feel for contact. He rarely meets a pitch with which he can’t connect. His discipline lags a bit, though it’s not as if he’s Javy Baez. An unsubstantiated theory of mine is that his early-season slump was the result of contacting too many pitches outside of the zone. The theory fits what data I have available, though I haven’t discussed it with anybody who would actually know.

Nick Yorke, 2B, 21, BOS (AA)
316 PA, 9 HR, 6 SB, .275/.361/.453

Folks weren’t sure what to make of Yorke’s forgettable 2022 campaign. The industry had a little chuckle when the Red Sox “reached” for Yorke in the first round of the 2020 draft. After a superb 2021 season, everyone adjusted expectations. Then 2022 happened. Some evaluators stuck with their updated outlook and blamed injuries. Others pointed to his subpar defense and wrote him off.

Yorke has rebounded this season – perhaps not enough to make up for his defensive shortcomings. His current 122 wRC+ depends upon a .353 BABIP. He also has 13.0 percent swinging strike and 25.0 percent strikeout rates. Historically, prospects with similar statistical performances have been prone to stalling out in the Quad-A bucket. For now, we should view Yorke’s rebound as a positive development. Perhaps more distance from his injury-riddled 2022 will lead to improvements in his quality or rate of contact.

Tink Hence, 20, SP, STL (AA)
(A+) 41.2 IP, 9.94 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 2.81 ERA

Hence received a promotion to Double-A at the beginning of July. He also picked up a hold in the Futures Game. The pitching-needy Cardinals surely hope Hence can remain in the rotation. Alas, though he doesn’t walk many hitters, he’s not known for sharp command. His breaking ball is a weapon. It’s expected he should join the many pitchers who have mastered manipulating breaking ball spin for different effects. He doesn’t have a consistent changeup. Taken with the errant fastball command and history of brief outings, the relief risk is palpable. That said, Hence has yet to meet a challenge he hasn’t mastered. His Double-A debut was the first appearance of his career in which he faced more than 20 batters (22).

Coby Mayo, 21, 3B, BAL (AA)
347 PA, 17 HR, 4 SB, .307/.424/.603

With a 176 wRC+ on the season, Mayo is one of the top qualified hitters in the minors. He’ll play his next game in Triple-A, ending a nearly 500-plate appearance stint in Double-A. Mayo has traits grounded in the 2019 juiced ball era. He’s a pull-oriented slugger who generates plenty of loft. As a right-handed hitter, he’s not an ideal fit for Camden Yards. However, his power is such that he could overcome the home field limitations. It will be interesting to see if Mayo can continue to run elevated BABIPs into the Majors as this is a hitting profile typically associated with low BABIPs. Hypothetically, if a franchise-altering talent is made available at the trade deadline, Mayo would go a long way toward securing a deal. They’ll eventually have to trade somebody they like.

Three More

Johan Rojas, PHI (22): The Phillies are angling to get Kyle Schwarber into the DH slot. The plan would involve Cristian Pache in center and Brandon Marsh in left. If Pache doesn’t work out, Rojas has a similar reputation as a superlative defender who might hit enough to create a lot of value. In 354 Double-A plate appearances, Rojas is batting .306/.361/.484 with nine homers and 30 steals. He’s on the 40-man roster.

River Ryan, LAD (24): The latest pitcher to pop in the Dodgers system, Ryan features a promising four-pitch repertoire. In the month of June, he tossed two five-inning no-hitters. His command hasn’t been particularly sharp. Even across those two no-nos, Ryan issued four walks and hit three batters. It’s thought he’ll eventually develop better command. If not, he has a relief floor.

Ignacio Alvarez, ATL (20): A ripped shortstop who recently turned 20, Alvarez evokes Yandy Diaz right down to the comical biceps, low-angle contact, discipline, and rare whiffs. The comparison is hard to avoid. He might just be the next Brave to skip the line to the Majors. He generally keeps the ball on the ground with an all-fields approach. He’s expected to eventually move to third base, though he remains passable at shortstop for now.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Ryan Sherriff Elects Free Agency

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Left-hander Ryan Sherriff went unclaimed on outright waivers following his DFA by the Red Sox and has elected free agency rather than accept an assignment to the minors, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports (Twitter link).

Sherriff, 33, held opponents to two runs on six hits and a pair of walks with five strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings earlier this season. He’d since been optioned to Triple-A and, after pitching well in 22 1/3 innings, diagnosed with a flexor strain that sent him to the injured list. The Sox reinstated him last week but immediately designated the southpaw for assignment, needing a 40-man roster spot to reinstate infielder Yu Chang from the 60-day injured list.

While Sherriff has seen action in parts of five big league seasons, injuries have frequently limited his ability to take the field. In addition to this year’s flexor strain, Sherriff has also dealt with a broken toe, a shoulder strain and undergone Tommy John surgery over the past five years. In 51 major league innings, Sherriff has a 3.53 ERA, an 18.5% strikeout rate, an 8.6% walk rate and a hefty 52.6% ground-ball rate. He’s also turned in a 3.08 ERA in 193 innings at the Triple-A level.

If Sherriff is healthy enough to get back on the mound, he ought to draw interest from clubs in need of some left-handed depth in the bullpen. That could include a return to the Red Sox, as it’s not uncommon for veterans of this nature to reject an outright assignment and quickly return on a new minor league contract.

Red Sox Outright Caleb Hamilton

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The Red Sox passed catcher Caleb Hamilton through outright waivers unclaimed and assigned him back to Triple-A Worcester, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. Hamilton has been outrighted in the past, giving him the right to reject the assignment if he chooses, but he’s listed as active on the WooSox’ roster for now.

The 28-year-old Hamilton appeared in only four games with Boston prior to being designated for assignment last week. He went hitless in six trips to the plate during that limited time and is now just 1-for-23 in his big league career, although that lone hit was a big fly during last year’s MLB debut with the Twins. Hamilton was batting .180/.285/.310 through 116 plate appearances with Triple-A Worcester prior to being selected to the MLB roster in June. In parts of four Triple-A seasons, Hamilton is a .206/.316/.377 hitter.

Boston is currently utilizing Connor Wong and recently re-signed Jorge Alfaro — whose contract with the Sox prompted Hamilton’s DFA in the first place — as the primary catching tandem on the big league roster. That’ll likely be the arrangement for the near future, at least until Reese McGuire is able to return from an oblique strain suffered on June 21. The Sox also have former top prospect Ronaldo Hernandez and 2019 tenth-rounder Stephen Scott on the roster in Triple-A Worcester.

Red Sox Notes: Pivetta, Houck, Bello

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The Red Sox rotation is facing a great deal of uncertainty headed into the All Star break. Right-hander Garrett Whitlock was placed on the injured list earlier this week with elbow inflammation, joining Tanner Houck, Chris Sale, and Corey Kluber on the shelf among the club’s starting options.

It seems their lack of rotation options won’t be cleared up anytime soon, as Alex Cora told reporters, including The Boston Globe’s Julian McWilliams, that the club has no intention of moving right-hander Nick Pivetta out of his current bulk role out of the bullpen. What’s more, Alex Speier of The Boston Globe relays that Cora indicated to reporters that Houck, who is expected to begin throwing again next week, could be ramped up for “a role other than starter” as he looks to return from the injured list. With Pivetta sticking to relief work and Houck seemingly poised to join him upon his return, it seems that Boston will be relying on bullpen games and spot starters to cover innings alongside James Paxton, Brayan Bello, and Kutter Crawford for the time being.

It’s easy to see why the club would prefer both Pivetta and Houck out of the bullpen. Pivetta posted a 6.30 ERA in eight starts this season prior to his mid-May move to the bullpen, but has become one of the most reliable relievers in the club’s bullpen since then. In 29 innings of relief across 14 appearances, Pivetta has dominated hitters to the tune of a 2.79 ERA and 3.29 FIP, with a strikeout rate of 33.7%. Houck, meanwhile, scuffled to a 5.05 ERA across 13 starts this season prior to his placement on the IL. While advanced metrics generally agree he’s pitched a bit better than the results would otherwise indicate, with a FIP of 4.24 and an xERA of 3.85, it’s easy to see why Boston would be enticed by Houck’s career 2.68 ERA in 53 2/3 innings out of the bullpen.

One pitcher who seems clearly ticketed for a long-term role in the rotation is Bello, who’s impressed with a 3.04 ERA and 3.78 FIP across 14 starts this season. According to WEEI’s Rob Bradford, the young right-hander was asked by reporters if the Red Sox had approached him regarding extension conversations, which Bello indicated they had not done. That being said, the 24 year old went on to express openness to the idea.

“I would love it. I love this organization.” Bello said. “I would love to stay here, but I haven’t really given it much thought.”

Of course, there’s no rush on any such discussions. Bello entered the 2023 campaign with just 82 days of service time, and as such is under team control through the end of the 2028 campaign. Still, early-career extensions have become more prevalent in recent years. Spencer Strider, a fellow young pitcher who inked a six-year $75MM extension with the Braves following his rookie season last year, is among the many recent examples of youngsters signing long term deals with their clubs at the beginning of their careers.

Red Sox Designate Ryan Sherriff For Assignment

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The Red Sox announced a number of moves before tonight’s series opener with Oakland. Infielder Yu Chang is back from the 60-day injured list and starter James Paxton returned from paternity leave. In corresponding moves, infielder David Hamilton was optioned while reliever Kaleb Ort was placed on the 15-day injured list due to right elbow inflammation. Boston designated reliever Ryan Sherriff for assignment to create a 40-man roster spot for Chang’s return.

Chang has been down since late April after fracturing the hamate bone in his wrist. He’s expected to assume the primary shortstop role now that he’s healthy, at least until Trevor Story is able to return from the internal brace procedure on his elbow. Chang steps back into the starting lineup tonight, hitting ninth against A’s southpaw Sam Long.

Boston has used a revolving door at shortstop in Story’s absence. They haven’t found any kind of consistency. Boston shortstops have hit .214/.284/.328 on the season. They’re 25th in on-base percentage and 28th in slugging. Chang contributed to those offensive struggles, hitting only .136/.174/.341 through 47 trips to the plate. He has a modest offensive track record at the big league level, but the Sox will hope he can at least stabilize things defensively.

Hamilton had picked up 10 starts at the position since receiving his first big league call a few weeks ago. The 25-year-old infielder hit .138/.265/.207 to begin his career. He’ll head back to Triple-A Worcester, while Chang’s return pushes Sherriff off the roster entirely.

Boston signed Sherriff to an offseason minor league contract and selected his contract two months ago. The left-hander made five big league appearances, allowing two runs in 6 2/3 innings. He’s now up to 51 MLB frames over parts of five seasons, putting together a 3.53 ERA despite a middling 18.5% strikeout rate.

Sherriff has had a decent season in Worcester, allowing 2.82 earned runs per nine while fanning just under 26% of opposing hitters. He’d unfortunately been on the minor league injured list since late June and was reinstated yesterday. The Sox will have a week to trade him or put him on waivers.

Red Sox Sign Jorge Alfaro To Major League Contract

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The Red Sox have signed catcher Jorge Alfaro to a Major League deal, tweets Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. He’s already in the clubhouse and will be active for tonight’s game. MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo adds that Caleb Hamilton has been designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Alfaro, 30, began the season in the Red Sox organization on a minor league deal and raked with their Triple-A club in Worcester, batting .320/.367/.520 but never receiving a call to the Majors before exercising an opt-out in his deal. He became a free agent and signed another minor league deal with the Rockies, who selected him to the Major League roster after just three Triple-A games.

Things didn’t go particularly well for Alfaro in Colorado. The veteran backstop appeared in 10 games, tallied 32 plate appearances and batted just .161/.188/.387 before being designated for assignment. The Rockies passed him through outright waivers, but as a player with five-plus years of service, Alfaro had the ability to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency. The Rockies never publicly confirmed that outcome, but today’s news makes clear that’s precisely the route Alfaro took. He’ll now head straight to the Red Sox’ big league roster, supplanting Hamilton and pairing with Connor Wong behind the dish.

Formerly one of the top catching prospects in the sport, Alfaro has appeared in parts of eight seasons but hasn’t seen his on-field production line up with the fanfare he received prior to his debut. In 1690 plate appearances as a big leaguer, he’s a .254/.302/.396 hitter. Defensively, he’s never been regarded as a premier defender, which led the Marlins to try him in left field for a bit back in 2021. He’s primarily been a catcher and designated hitter in the minors this year, though the Sox did give him a pair of starts at first base as well.

Hamilton, 28, appeared in four games with the Sox but went hitless in six plate appearances. He was hitting .180/.285/.310 in 116 Triple-A plate appearances prior to his promotion to the big leagues and is a lifetime .206/.316/.377 hitter in parts of four seasons at that level. The Red Sox will have a week to trade Hamilton, pass him through outright waivers, or release him.

Red Sox Have Multiple Infield Decisions Looming

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The Red Sox are planning to reinstate Yu Chang from the injured list and install him as their starting shortstop within the next couple of days, but that’s only the first of several decisions regarding their infield mix. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com outlines the situation neatly, noting that there are ostensibly three roster spots for four infielders: Chang, Christian Arroyo, Enrique Hernandez and Pablo Reyes.

Like Chang, Reyes is expected to be activated from the injured list before long. Based on overall track record — he’s a career .250/.312/.361 hitter — the 29-year-old would seem to be the odd man out. Reyes is hitting .303/.338/.364 so far this season, however, and while it’s only come in a sample of 72 plate appearances, that’s still better output than the rest of the group. Arroyo is batting .243/.278/.375 in 163 plate appearances, while Hernandez has struggled immensely this year with a .225/.282/.333 slash in 291 plate appearances. Each of Arroyo, Chang and Reyes is out of minor league options, while Hernandez cannot be optioned by virtue of his Major League service time.

Further muddying the infield mix, manager Alex Cora told the team’s beat last night that Justin Turner could begin mixing in at second base soon (Twitter link via Ian Browne of MLB.com). The 38-year-old has just nine innings at second base since 2015, eight of which came earlier this season. He hasn’t started a game at second in eight years, but he’s been one of Boston’s best hitters (.282/.354/.461), and Cora voiced a desire to maximize the offensive potential for a club that has averaged fewer than two runs per game during a 5-8 slump over the past 13 games. It seems unlikely that the Red Sox would install Turner at second base on a full-time basis, given his age and lack of recent experience there, but even occasional reps at the position will cut into opportunities for Arroyo, Hernandez and others.

Looming further in the distance is the return of shortstop Trevor Story, who could begin a minor league rehab assignment following the All-Star break, per Cora (Twitter link via Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald). While Story has previously spoken about the possibility of returning as a DH in July before moving to shortstop in August, it seems that won’t happen. Cora indicated that when Story returns, it’ll be as a shortstop. That’s still a ways down the road, but it’d likely push Chang either into a utility role or, depending on the outcome of the upcoming roster decisions, perhaps into a more frequent role at second base.

Health and performance leading up to the returns of Chang, Reyes and Story can certainly impact the eventual roster management, but even independent of the Aug. 1 trade deadline, the Red Sox will have a handful of roster decisions to make in the relatively near future.

Wyatt Mills Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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The Red Sox announced to reporters that right-hander Wyatt Mills underwent a successful reconstruction of the right ulnar collateral ligament, the procedure also known as Tommy John surgery.

Mills, now 28, came over to the Red Sox from the Royals in an offseason trade. However, he was shut down in the spring with elbow inflammation and has spent the entire season on the injured list. It will now go down as an entirely lost season for the righty and he’s likely to lose much of the 2024 campaign as well, given that the procedure typically requires a recovery period of 14 to 18 months.

Originally a draft pick of the Mariners, Mills worked his way up to the big leagues with that club and made his debut in 2021. He posted a 9.95 ERA in a small sample of 12 2/3 innings that year. He had better results in the first half of 2022, with a 4.15 ERA in 8 2/3 innings at the major league level along with a 1.83 ERA in 19 2/3 innings at Triple-A.

The Royals then acquired him as part of the deal where they flipped Carlos Santana to the Mariners. After that deal, Mills registered a 4.79 ERA in 20 2/3 innings in the bigs and a 2.57 mark in 14 Triple-A frames. He finished the year with a 29.9% strikeout rate in the minors while getting grounders on around half the balls he allowed in play. He walked 12.7% of Triple-A hitters and 10.2% in the bigs, but there was clearly a strikeout-grounder combination that intrigued the Red Sox.

Mills lost his roster spot when the Royals signed left-hander Ryan Yarbrough in December, getting designated for assignment. Boston was willing to give him a shot and flipped minor leaguer Jacob Wallace to the Royals to facilitate a deal, also designating first baseman Eric Hosmer for assignment to get Mills onto their roster. The fact that Mills still had an option remaining and less than one year of service time was surely a part of the appeal.

Unfortunately for both Mills and the Sox, the elbow issue has prevented him from making his club debut thus far. He’ll earn a full year of service time here in 2023 while spending the entire campaign on the IL. He’s already on the 60-day IL and isn’t taking up a roster spot but he’ll have to be added back in the winter since there’s no injured list in the offseason. The Sox could put him back on the 60-day IL once Spring Training begins, though he will have to hang onto his 40-man roster spot all winter long.

Red Sox Plan To Use Yu Chang As Primary Shortstop Upon Return From IL

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The Red Sox expect infielder Yu Chang to return from a hamate fracture this week, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (Twitter link). The team plans to deploy Chang as its starting shortstop once he’s reinstated from the 60-day injured list. Chang has been out since undergoing surgery in late April.

Chang’s status as the team’s starter at short figures to be tenuous, at least in the long run. Trevor Story is hoping to return from elbow surgery sometime this month and ease back into things as a designated hitter at first. However, he’s expressed optimism about being able to return to shortstop at sometime in August. Beyond the potential impact of Story’s return, the trade deadline looms on Aug. 1 and could obviously impact Boston’s middle infield outlook.

Utilizing Chang as the starter at shortstop, even if only for a month or so, highlights the middle-infield problems that have plagued the Sox throughout the year. Boston found out late in the offseason that Story would miss at least the first half of the season. Subsequent moves to bolster the middle infield depth — acquiring Adalberto Mondesi and signing Adam Duvall, thus pushing Enrique Hernandez from center field to the infield — haven’t had the intended effect. Mondesi hasn’t played in a game this season due to injury, while Hernandez has been pushed out of the starting shortstop role due to defensive struggles.

Of late, the Red Sox have used rookie David Hamilton at the position, but he’s batted just .120/.241/.160 in his first 29 Major League plate appearances. On the whole, Boston shortstops have posted a .212/.281/.325 batting line this year, which translates to a 63 wRC+ that ranks last in the Majors. They also rank 20th in Defensive Runs Saved and 27th in Outs Above Average.

Chang’s return should, at the very least, help on the defensive end of the coin. The 27-year-old is regarded as a versatile and above-average infield defender, with positive DRS and OAA grades in his career at each of second base, shortstop and third base.

At the plate, however, Chang probably won’t provide much of a boost. He’s appeared in 213 big league games and tallied 585 plate appearances but managed just a .206/.271/.358 batting line with a 7% walk rate and 28.4% strikeout rate. That production would grade as a slight upgrade over Boston’s cumulative shortstop output in 2023 — a damning statement on the team’s middle-infield play as a whole — but still grades well below league average.

The Sox will hope that defensive gains made by installing Chang at shortstop can help keep their playoff hopes afloat. A 13-game deficit in the American League East seems nearly insurmountable, but Boston is a more manageable five games back of the final Wild Card spot in the American League, currently sporting a .500 record. Their play over the next several weeks will be of particular note, as it’ll likely determine the front office’s approach to the 2023 trade deadline on Aug. 1.

Red Sox Place Garrett Whitlock On IL With Elbow Inflammation

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The Red Sox announces a few roster moves today, with right-hander Garrett Whitlock placed on the 15-day injured list due to right elbow inflammation, retroactive to July 3. Left-hander James Paxton was placed on the paternity list while pitchers Brandon Walter and Tayler Scott were recalled in corresponding moves.

Whitlock started Sunday’s game against the Blue Jays but departed after just one inning due to elbow tightness. Sean McAdam of MassLive reported yesterday that Whitlock would likely land on the IL but that the club wasn’t overly concerned with the nature of the injury. With the upcoming All-Star break, it’s possible that Whitlock only misses a couple of turns through the rotation.

Even if it ultimately proves true that the issue is minor, it’s not ideal timing for the Sox. The rotation is already a bit short-handed with Chris Sale and Tanner Houck each on the injured list already. Corey Kluber and Nick Pivetta each pitched poorly enough earlier in the year to get moved to the bullpen, with Kluber now on the IL as well. Pivetta has pitched well as a reliever of late and the club might prefer to keep him doing that for as long as it’s working.

Those factors have led to the club running a four-man rotation of late, using bullpen days and off-days to make it all work. With Whitlock now out of action, they are down to just Paxton, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford. Paternity list stints last from one to three days, meaning Paxton should be back shortly. The upcoming All-Star break will help the club out but they still have to get through six games before that and will have six straight coming out of the break as well.

For Whitlock personally, this is yet another setback in his attempts to establish himself as a bonafide big league starter. After a successful rookie campaign as a reliever in 2021, the Sox tried moving him to the rotation last year with mixed results. He started the year with four relief appearances and then nine starts before landing on the IL due to hip inflammation. When he returned, he was kept in relief and finished the season with an ERA of 3.45 in 78 1/3 innings.

His ongoing hip issues ultimately required surgery, which landed him on the IL to start this year. He eventually returned but this is now the second time he’s hit the IL this year due to an elbow issue. He’s made 10 starts and logged 51 2/3 innings with a 5.23 ERA. His strikeout rate has dropped to 21.8% after being at 26.4% last year.

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