- The Chaim Bloom era of Red Sox baseball is now officially in the rearview mirror as the club hired former major league pitcher and Cubs executive Craig Breslow as the club’s new chief baseball officer earlier this week. MassLive’s Sean McAdam discussed the importance of Breslow and manager Alex Cora building a strong relationship together in the early stages of their partnership, and in doing so noted that the relationship between Bloom and Cora frayed during the “last year or so” of Bloom’s tenure at the helm. While Cora was frustrated with Bloom’s lack of urgency in returning to contention, McAdam notes that the pair’s relationship was complicated by Cora temporarily departing the club during the 2019-20 offseason, mere months after Bloom was hired to replace Dave Dombrowski. Fortunately for the Red Sox, Breslow and Cora should have no such roadblock as they look to build a strong working relationship going forward.
Red Sox Rumors
Looking For A Match In An Alex Verdugo Trade
Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo saw his name floated around the trade deadline as a potential trade candidate, and though no trade ultimately came together, it’s worth noting that the club did field interest from clubs including both the Yankees and Astros regarding Verdugo at the deadline. With new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow now in place, the club’s focus figures to turn toward the offseason proper, and Verdugo once again makes sense as a trade candidate.
After all, the club has plenty of quality outfield options. Masataka Yoshida is entrenched in left field after a strong first stateside campaign, while the likes of Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela all represent solid young outfield options that the Red Sox have previously expressed belief in. Of that quartet, only Rafaela bats right-handed, so Verdugo’s presence does little to balance out the club’s heavily left-handed outfield mix. With just one year of team control remaining before Verdugo hits free agency, the 27-year-old sticks out as a prime trade candidate for a Boston club looking to pull itself back into contention after back-to-back last place finishes in the AL East.
That’s not to say Verdugo isn’t a quality player in his own right, of course. He’s been a roughly league average bat in each of the past three seasons, slashing .278/.334/.417 with a wRC+ of 102 since the start of the 2021 campaign. He paired that average offensive with above-average defense in right field this year, as he posted a solid +1 Outs Above Average alongside a more impressive +9 Defensive Runs Saved. Only Fernando Tatis Jr. had a higher DRS in right field this year, per Fielding Bible.
The lackluster free agent market for position players further bolsters Verdugo’s potential trade candidacy. While the top of the market features Cody Bellinger, who is coming off his best season since his 2019 MVP campaign, the rest of the market pales in comparison with the likes of Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Pham, and Jorge Soler among the group’s highlights. For teams in need of short-term outfield help, a one-year commitment to Verdugo (who MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects to make $9.2MM in his final trip through arbitration) could make more sense than targeting one of those mid-tier free agents who could potentially be in search of a multi-year deal.
Teams that are unlikely to contend in 2023 are easy to eliminate from this exercise, as they wouldn’t particularly stand to benefit from a one-year deal with Verdugo. That would seem to eliminate the A’s, Nationals, Rockies, Royals, and White Sox from the list of potential teams. Teams without a significant need for a corner outfield bat are also fairly easy to eliminate. The Angels, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Giants, Orioles, Rangers, Rays, Reds, Tigers, and Twins all appear to be fairly set in the outfield corners. That still leaves 12 teams that could potentially have interest in Verdugo’s services, however. Let’s take a look at how they match up…
Best Fits:
- Astros: Houston was one of the teams linked to the Red Sox at the trade deadline, and it’s easy to see why given the club’s desire to acquire a left-handed outfielder to complement Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick, given the uncertain health situation of veteran Michael Brantley at the time. It stands to reason that the club’s interest in Verdugo would continue into this offseason, with Brantley set to hit free agency and leave an opening in the club’s left field mix. Verdugo would provide quality defense in left field and complement the right-handed bats of McCormick and Meyers alongside fellow lefty Kyle Tucker, who figures to play every day in right.
- Braves: The Braves hold a $9MM option on the services of Eddie Rosario for the 2024 season, and while Rosario bounced back from a brutal 2022 campaign to post league average offensive numbers this year, Verdugo would be a more consistent player with stronger defense at roughly the same financial cost. The clear upgrade Verdugo provides for the Braves over their current left field mix makes Atlanta a strong potential landing spot for Verdugo, who would join Michael Harris II and Ronald Acuna Jr. in the outfield while allowing Marcell Ozuna to remain as the club’s regular DH.
- Dodgers: As unusual as it would be for the Dodgers to trade for Verdugo just four seasons after including him in the package that brought Mookie Betts from Boston to LA, Verdugo would be an excellent fit for the Dodgers, who are set to lose lefty corner bats David Peralta and Jason Heyward to free agency this offseason. Though a healthy season from Gavin Lux would allow Betts to patrol right field on a regular basis again in 2024 after spending much of 2023 on the infield dirt, the club still figures to be in need of an outfield regular alongside Betts and James Outman. Additionally, Verdugo’s left-handed bat would complement the right-handed bat of Chris Taylor, who figures to play a utility role in both the infield and outfield next season.
- Mariners: After acquiring a one-year stopgap in right field last offseason when they landed Teoscar Hernandez in a trade with the Blue Jays, Seattle figures to once again be in need of corner outfield help this offseason. While Julio Rodriguez has locked down center field and Jarred Kelenic showed enough positive signs this year to warrant a regular role in left, the Mariners’ options beyond that duo are few and far between, with the likes of Cade Marlowe, Sam Haggerty and Taylor Trammell among their best choices. Verdugo, much like Hernandez this season, would provide the club with a quality regular who can lock down a corner spot and allow the Mariners to focus on other areas this offseason.
- Yankees: As rare as trades between the longtime rivals once were, they’ve become more common in recent years, including a deal that sent Greg Allen to New York earlier this year and a trade that moved Adam Ottavino to Boston back in 2021. While a Verdugo deal would be more significant than either of those two trades, the Yankees are in clear need of both left-handed bats to balance their lineup and could use two outfield bats to pair with Aaron Judge, assuming the club doesn’t want to count on Giancarlo Stanton as an everyday outfielder. Verdugo would fill both of those needs without adding another long-term contract to a payroll in New York that features five guaranteed contracts that extend through 2026 or longer.
Next Tier Down:
- Guardians: The Guardians are well-established as a team in need of outfield help. Though Steven Kwan figures to remain entrenched in left field and Myles Straw is under contract in center long term, Ramon Laureano is a non-tender or trade candidate in right field and Straw could easily be pushed into a fourth outfielder role if Cleveland acquired an outfielder better suited to an everyday role. Verdugo would fit the club’s lineup nicely, taking over for Laureano in right field and offer a reliable bat to an outfield group that posted the second-worst wRC+ in the majors last year, 16% worse than league average. Unfortunately, the fit is less clean than it may appear, as Verdugo would immediately become the third highest-paid player on the club’s roster behind only Jose Ramirez and Shane Bieber. Given the Guardians typically run payrolls at or near the bottom of the league, the club may prefer to look for lower-cost fliers in free agency to boost their outfield production rather than spend both financial and prospect capital to bring in Verdugo.
- Marlins: Miami will see one of its best bats in Jorge Soler depart for free agency this offseason, leaving a clear hole in the lineup. While Soler was primarily used as a DH, the addition of Verdugo in the outfield would allow the club to platoon Bryan De La Cruz and Jesus Sanchez, opening up the DH spot for an additional bat to improve a lackluster Marlins offense. That being said, given the presence of De La Cruz, Sanchez, and Avisail Garcia on the roster, Miami might be better served focusing on upgrading at shortstop, where the club currently projects to utilize Jon Berti as an everyday option.
- Padres: The outfield in San Diego is currently well-stocked, with superstars Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. in the corners and Trent Grisham getting the lion’s share of playing time in center. With that being said, rumors have already begun to percolate this offseason that the Padres could look to move Soto in trade this offseason in hopes of cutting payroll. If the club does move on from Soto, that would create a hole in left field that Verdugo could slide into nicely. Verdugo projects to make almost $24MM less than Soto in 2024, and while his bat is not nearly as valuable as Soto’s he provides significantly more defensive value and is a clearly capable everyday player in left, which the Padres would lack without Soto on the team. Of course, if the team doesn’t move on from Soto this offseason, San Diego would no longer be a fit for Verdugo’s services.
Longer Shots:
- Blue Jays: With Kevin Kiermaier set to depart for free agency this offseason, the Blue Jays will be in need of an outfield bat to pair with George Springer and Daulton Varsho, even as the likes of Spencer Horwitz and Ernie Clement provide reasonable depth options. While Verdugo could certainly fill that role, Toronto may not want to commit to Varsho as the club’s regular center fielder, seeing as the 26-year-old has never started more than 50 games at the position in a season during his career. What’s more, after a disappointing offensive season from the club, it’s reasonable to think the Blue Jays may prefer to add a bat with a stronger offensive profile than Verdugo, who’s 112 wRC+ in 106 games with the Dodgers during the 2019 season represents his best full season offensively.
- Mets: After parting with Mark Canha and Tommy Pham at the trade deadline, the Mets have a clear opening in left field where Verdugo would represent a clear improvement over the club’s incumbent options. That being said, the rumors have indicated that the club may look to take a bit of a step back in 2024 after a difficult 2023 campaign, and the club has plenty of young players who could feasibly take a step forward with regular playing time in 2024 including Bretty Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and Mark Vientos. An opening in the outfield would allow the Mets to provide more playing time to those players, whether by directly playing them in left or by moving multi-positional veteran Jeff McNeil to left, thereby opening up time on the infield dirt.
- Phillies: Whether the Phillies look to add a first baseman or outfielder this offseason could hinge on where Bryce Harper hopes to play in 2024, but in the event Harper spends next season at first base, Verdugo could provide the club with a quality defensive outfielder who would provide more certainty than relying on the likes of Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache to play alongside Brandon Marsh and Nick Castellanos. That being said, Verdugo’s lefty bat makes for an imperfect fit in a Philadelphia lineup that already features Harper, Marsh, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryson Stott, further complicating Verdugo’s fit with the Phillies.
- Pirates: While the Pirates lack an obvious starter in the outfield alongside Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski, the club figures to continue attempting to convert catcher Henry Davis to the outfield in 2024, likely filling the club’s outfield mix at least in the early part of the season. What’s more, the annual low budgets in Pittsburgh make a deal for Verdugo seem even more unlikely, as the club would presumably look to reunite with veteran outfielder and franchise legend Andrew McCutchen, who is set to hit free agency this offseason, if they were to dedicate resources to their outfield mix.
Red Sox Notes: Breslow, Huntington, Levine, Mejdal, Bailey
Craig Breslow, Neal Huntington, and Thad Levine were the final three candidates for the Red Sox in their search for a new front office boss, MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam writes. That search came to an end earlier this week when Breslow was hired as Boston’s new chief baseball officer, putting the former Cubs assistant GM and 12-year big league veteran in charge of a front office for the first time.
Huntington and Levine were known to be under consideration, though Levine initially didn’t appear to be a finalist when reports surfaced this week that the Red Sox had told him he was no longer a candidate for the job. At the time, it seemed like the Sox were moving onto a second round of interviews in their hiring process, yet it now appears as if that second round had already begun, and the Sox had made their decision about Breslow. It seemed as though Breslow sealed the deal with a strong interview with Sox principal owner John Henry during that secondary stage.
Back in September, Peter Gammons reported that the Red Sox had some interest in Breslow for a possible role as a director of pitching development. That early link between Breslow and the Sox could tie into McAdam’s breakdown of how the team didn’t initially have Breslow on the radar as a CBO candidate at first, in part due to his lack of experience as a GM or president of baseball operations. However, as the Red Sox increasingly became open to the idea of at least making Breslow the chief lieutenant of a CBO, they still had difficulty finding someone appropriate for that top job, thus making Breslow an even more attractive candidate. McAdam also notes that the Sox were concerned that the Cubs might offer Breslow a promotion to stay in Chicago if he was offered anything less than a CBO position, or that another team might come calling about Breslow in the near future about a CBO/PBO job if he was only in a secondary role in Boston.
The front office search was marked by several notable executives who declined to interview with the Red Sox, though McAdam writes that Boston had interest in a candidate that seemingly wasn’t given permission for an interview. The Sox wanted to speak with Orioles assistant GM Sig Mejdal, yet the O’s “dragged their feet on the process and never provided the Sox with the go-ahead to speak with Mejdal,” according to McAdam.
The 57-year-old Mejdal has been with Baltimore since November 2018, and was one of Mike Elias’ first hires when Elias took over the Orioles’ front office as general manager. Mejdal has been one of the key figures of baseball’s analytics movement over the last two decades, as his work with the Orioles, Astros, and Cardinals has led those clubs to tremendous results in maximizing talent and finding and developing young players. As McAdam observes, it probably isn’t surprising that the Orioles wanted to keep Mejdal in the fold, even if most organizations generally allow employees to interview for promotions on other teams. It isn’t known if Mejdal would’ve been open to an interview anyway, as there has been some past speculation that Mejdal is happy in a behind-the-scenes role rather than running a front office himself.
Returning to Breslow, it’s still too early to tell how he’ll approach the makeup of his baseball operations department, which will continue to have several longtime holdovers (assistant GMs Eddie Romero, Raquel Ferreira, Michael Groopman) who are expected to stay in the organization. Whether one of them could be elevated to a full-time general manager role to act as Breslow’s No. 2 remains to be seen, or if he might hire a GM from outside Fenway Park to provide another new voice in the mix.
As for on-field matters, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford speculates that Giants pitching coach Andrew Bailey might be a candidate to join Boston’s staff, as Breslow and Bailey are close friends and former teammates from when they pitched together with the Athletics and Red Sox from 2009-13. The Sox fired pitching coach Dave Bush after the season, and some recent reports suggest Bailey might look to leave San Francisco for a job closer to his family on the East Coast.
Red Sox Reportedly Offered Nathan Eovaldi Three-Year Deal Last Offseason
- Sticking with the Rangers, veteran right-hander Nathan Eovaldi has been a key cog in the club’s success this season. After posting a 3.63 ERA in 144 innings of work during the regular season, Eovaldi has posted quality starts all four times he’s taken the mound for Texas this postseason, with a 2.42 ERA and 26.9% strikeout rate in 26 innings of work. Eovaldi’s success with the Rangers this year prompted MassLive’s Chris Cotillo to look back at Eovaldi’s free agency last offseason, during which there was mutual interest in a reunion with the Red Sox. Cotillo notes that Boston offered the veteran righty a three-year, $51MM deal in early December, though after Eovaldi decided to hold out for a better offer, the club’s later signings of players like Kenley Jansen and Masataka Yoshida left Boston with a budget crunch later in the offseason. While the sides remained in contact until Eovaldi signed in Texas, Boston’s later offers were characterized by what Cotillo describes as “creative structures” thanks to a desire to stay under the luxury tax. Ultimately, Cotillo adds, the Red Sox pivoted to righty Corey Kluber, who posted a 7.04 ERA in 15 appearances this year, after Eovaldi landed with the Rangers on a two-year, $34MM deal.
Red Sox Officially Hire Craig Breslow As Chief Baseball Officer
TODAY: The Red Sox officially announced Breslow’s hiring today, with an introductory press conference scheduled for November 2, one week from today. Principal owner John Henry, chairman Tom Werner, and team president Sam Kennedy all spoke glowingly of Breslow in statements.
“Each year, one baseball club emerges with a championship. Our organization continues to have significantly high standards and expectations with a goal of being able to compete annually for that coveted privilege,” Henry said, “We feel strongly that Craig is the right person at the right time to lead our baseball department. Craig’s understanding of the game is remarkable. What convinced us to bring him aboard in this capacity was his highly strategic philosophy and his grasp of what it takes operationally in today’s evolving game to excel at the highest level in player acquisition, development, and execution at the major league level. We are excited to welcome him back.”
Werner praised Breslow as “an extraordinary leader” while Kennedy noted the “astounding character references” the club received regarding Breslow from the likes of David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, and Cubs manager David Ross, all of whom played with Breslow during his time as a pitcher with the Red Sox. Breslow himself also released a statement.
“I couldn’t be more excited to return to the Boston Red Sox, an organization that means so much to my family and to me. I am humbled by the opportunity to lead baseball operations and to work alongside so many talented people.” Breslow said, “I know firsthand how special winning in Boston is, and I look forward to once again experiencing that passion and success with our fans.”
Oct. 25: Craig Breslow has accepted the Red Sox’s offer to take over as head of baseball operations, report Alex Speier and Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe (X link). He is expected to be named chief baseball officer, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive (on X). The team will presumably wait until Wednesday before announcing the hire.
Breslow, 43, is a Yale graduate who spent 12 seasons in the majors as a reliever. While he spread that across seven organizations, he’s best known for his time with the Sox. The New Haven native pitched 211 innings across five campaigns with Boston, turning in a 1.81 ERA for the 2013 World Series club.
After concluding his playing career in 2018, Breslow signed on with the Cubs as their director of strategic initiatives for baseball operations. He shed that wordy title when he was named director of pitching one season later. The following year, the Cubs bumped him to AGM in Jed Hoyer’s front office, a title he has held for the last three years.
Just a half-decade after first joining a front office, he’ll get his crack at running the show. Breslow replaces Chaim Bloom, who was fired midway through September with the team en route to a second straight last place finish. Boston finished the season at 78-84, an identical record as they had in 2022.
Breslow will be tasked with pushing the club back into contention in one of the game’s toughest divisions. He steps into a situation that’s certainly not devoid of talent but comes with an uncertain direction. The Red Sox ranked 11th in run scoring behind a lineup anchored by Rafael Devers and Triston Casas this past season. Former top prospect Jarren Duran took a step forward to secure an outfield spot.
Boston will have some decisions to make as they build around that group. Justin Turner is likely to decline a player option, subtracting one of their top hitters from this year. Alex Verdugo is entering his final season of arbitration eligibility and could be a trade candidate. The Sox will need better from Trevor Story at shortstop but could upgrade at second base, which was a revolving door during Bloom’s tenure. Masataka Yoshida is on hand in left field and at designated hitter, while they could explore ways to upgrade on the catching tandem of Connor Wong and Reese McGuire.
The pitching side has its share of uncertainty as well. Tanner Houck, Nick Pivetta and Garrett Whitlock are all effective multi-inning arms who haven’t cemented themselves as starters. Brayan Bello tailed off following a promising first half. Chris Sale has battled myriad injuries in recent years. Boston’s rotation finished 22nd in ERA.
While a mediocre defense hasn’t done the pitching many favors, sorting out the rotation might be the top priority for Breslow and his front office staff. The longtime hurler unsurprisingly took on a heavy workload in building the pitching infrastructure in Chicago, as The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma, Patrick Mooney, Jen McCaffrey and Chad Jennings chronicle.
The Red Sox have a solid minor league pipeline and an organizational track record of running higher-end payrolls. They’ve cut back on player spending of late, opening this season outside the top 10 for the first time this century (as covered by Cot’s Baseball Contracts). It’s unclear precisely how much ownership will make available this offseason, although it’s apparent the Sox are going to make some kind of effort to compete in 2024.
Breslow joins Texas GM Chris Young, White Sox GM Chris Getz and Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto as former MLB players who are now in charge of a front office. He landed the job over the likes of Minnesota GM Thad Levine, former Pirates GM Neal Huntington, former Giants manager Gabe Kapler and internal candidates like Eddie Romero, Michael Groopman and Paul Toboni — all of whom met with Boston brass. Various high-profile executives (e.g. James Click, Kim Ng, Derek Falvey and Mike Hazen) either declined interviews or pulled themselves out of the mix at one point or another.
It’s possible Breslow’s hiring is just the first, if most important, in constructing the new look front office. There have been reports that Boston could also hire a new #2 executive in the kind of arrangement that has become commonplace around the game.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Red Sox Have Offered Top Baseball Operations Job To Craig Breslow
The Red Sox’s search for a new baseball operations leader is accelerating, with one candidate pulling ahead of the pack. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe and Chris Cotillo of MassLive each indicate that Cubs assistant general manager Craig Breslow is the favorite.
Speier reports that the Sox have already offered the position to Breslow, although there’s no indication he has yet accepted. Cotillo suggested this evening that the hiring process was gaining steam and the job could be filled imminently.
Breslow, 43, is a Yale graduate who spent 12 seasons in the majors as a reliever. While he spread that across seven organizations, he’s best known for his time with the Sox. The New Haven native pitched 211 innings across five campaigns with Boston, turning in a 1.81 ERA for the 2013 World Series club.
After concluding his playing career in 2018, Breslow signed on with the Cubs as their director of strategic initiatives for baseball operations. He shed that wordy title when he was named director of pitching one season later. The following year, the Cubs bumped him to AGM in Jed Hoyer’s front office, a title he has held for the last three years.
Boston fired chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom as the season was winding down. They haven’t announced the specific title of the person they’re planning to bring in as head of baseball operations. Since Breslow holds the AGM title, the Red Sox could offer him a bump to general manager — either as the leader of the front office (as seems increasingly likely), or as the second-in-command under a newly minted president of baseball operations.
Cotillo suggests the Sox could still bring in two new front office hires, utilizing the president/GM structure that has become commonplace around the league. They don’t need to make both additions simultaneously. The Tigers, for instance, left the GM role vacant for an entire season to afford incoming president of baseball operations Scott Harris time to choose his top lieutenant.
Even if there’s agreement on a hire in the next few hours, the Red Sox aren’t likely to make a formal announcement tonight. MLB dissuades teams from releasing noteworthy news on the day of postseason games. With two scheduled off days between tonight’s NLCS Game 7 and the first contest of the World Series, it’s possible a hire is finalized tomorrow or Thursday.
Offseason Chat Transcript: Boston Red Sox
In conjunction with the recent offseason outlook, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald held a Red Sox-specific chat. Click here to read the transcript.
Thad Levine No Longer A Candidate In Red Sox Front Office Search
As the Red Sox continue their search for a new head of baseball operations, Twins general manager Thad Levine is no longer in the running, according to Jeremy Nygaard of Twins Daily. Levine was told yesterday by the Sox that he was no longer a candidate, MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam reports (via X).
The news comes as the Red Sox have apparently taken a next step in their selection process, as the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes that club has moved onto a second round of interviews. Cubs assistant GM Craig Breslow is believed to have advanced to this second round, though it isn’t known how many other candidates might also be getting a second sitdown with team brass. As per The Athletic’s Chad Jennings, “information is spotty” on the situation, but Red Sox assistant GM Eddie Romero and Breslow could both still be candidates. Four other candidates known to have sat down for an initial interview remain in the process for now — Red Sox assistant GM Michael Groopman, Red Sox VP of player development/scouting Paul Toboni, former Pirates GM Neal Huntington, and former Phillies/Giants manager Gabe Kapler.
The 51-year-old Levine has been Minnesota’s GM since the 2016-17 offseason, working as the top lieutenant to chief baseball officer Derek Falvey (who turned down an interview offer from the Red Sox). Levine has over two decades’ worth of experience working in the front offices of the Twins, Rangers, Rockies, and Dodgers, though he hasn’t yet gotten the chance to call the shots in a baseball operations department. There have been a couple of close calls, however, as the Rockies and Phillies considered Levine for their most recent GM openings were respectively filled by Bill Schmidt and Dave Dombrowski.
Falvey, Kim Ng, Jon Daniels, James Click, Michael Hill, Sam Fuld, Brandon Gomes, and Mike Hazen are among the prominent executives who have declined to interview for the Red Sox job, yet it appears as though the club is satisfied enough with its current list of candidates to progress into what might be a final stage of the hiring process. Breslow may or may not be the frontrunner, as reports have indicated that the Sox definitely see him as a candidate for some kind of front office role, if perhaps a GM working under a president of baseball operations moreso than a PBO himself.
Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox
Uncertainty seems to be the running theme of the Red Sox right now. Though they have World Series championships not too far in the rear-view mirror, recent seasons have seen them cut payroll and wind up in a middle ground between a rebuilding club and a frontline contender. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom was recently fired and the search to find his replacement hasn’t yet shed light on which direction the franchise is heading.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Rafael Devers, 3B: $313.5MM through 2033
- Trevor Story, SS: $100MM through 2027 (includes buyout on 2028 club option; Story can opt-out after 2025 but club can negate that by picking up option)
- Masataka Yoshida, OF: $72MM through 2027
- Chris Sale, LHP: $27.5MM through 2024 (includes 2025 club option with no buyout)
- Garrett Whitlock, RHP: $16.75MM through 2026 (includes buyout on 2027 club option; deal also has ’28 club option)
- Kenley Jansen, RHP: $16MM through 2024
- Justin Turner, IF: $13.4MM player option with $6.7MM buyout
- Chris Martin, RHP: $7.5MM through 2024
- Rob Refsnyder, OF: $1.85MM through 2024 (includes club option for 2025 with no buyout)
Option Decisions
- IF Justin Turner has $13.4MM player option with $6.7MM buyout
- Club holds $11MM option on RHP Corey Kluber with no buyout
- Club holds $4.25MM option on LHP Joely Rodríguez with $500K buyout
2024 financial commitments (assuming no options are triggered): $129.1MM
Total future commitments (assuming no options are triggered): $555.1MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Nick Pivetta (5.166): $6.9MM
- Alex Verdugo (5.078): $9.2MM
- Luis Urías (4.098): $4.7MM
- Reese McGuire (4.027): $1.7MM
- John Schreiber (3.027): $1.3MM
Non-tender candidates: Urías, McGuire
Free Agents
If there were an award for the least consistent club in the majors, the Red Sox would be in the running. In the past 20 years, they have four World Series championships, more than any other team. But they have also finished last in the American League East six times in that stretch, including each of the two most recent campaigns.
As mentioned up top, the recent skid cost Bloom his job, which means the first order of business is to figure out who makes the decisions now. Various high-profile names have taken themselves out of the running, such as Mike Hazen, Kim Ng, Jon Daniels, James Click, Michael Hill, Derek Falvey, Sam Fuld and Brandon Gomes. Most of those executives have other commitments that would make it hard for them to consider a move to Boston, but it’s also been suggested that the appeal of the job might not be very high.
The higher-ups in Boston have given very short leashes to their executives recently. Ben Cherington was put in charge in October of 2011 but was replaced as the club’s baseball decision maker by Dave Dombrowski in August of 2015, despite the fact that the club had won the World Series in 2013. Dombrowski was then dismissed in 2019, even though he also brought a title to Boston the year prior, getting replaced by Bloom. With Bloom now out the door as well, it’s been quite a while since anyone has even lasted five years, despite the club’s many successes. It has also been suggested that the new hire won’t have much autonomy, with Álex Cora seemingly entrenched as manager and several other important jobs already filled.
It would be understandable if the gig weren’t viewed by everyone as a dream job, but there are only 30 of these to go around and there is still plenty of interest. Gabe Kapler, Craig Breslow, Thad Levine, Neal Huntington, Eddie Romero and Paul Groopman have been publicly reported to have been interviewed and it’s possible there are others who have sat down for a chat without it being leaked.
Once a hire is made, there will perhaps be more clarity on how the franchise envisions itself moving forward. But regardless of who eventually gets chosen, they will undoubtedly face challenges in improving the club’s chances going forward. The American League East doesn’t have weak spots, with each of the Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays having made the playoffs in 2023. The Yankees were bit by the injury bug and finished fourth but they will certainly be aggressive in the hopes of putting this season behind them.
Whether a hire has been made by the start of the offseason, the front office will have some formalities to attend to. Both Corey Kluber and Joely Rodríguez are sure to have their options declined after injury-marred seasons in 2023. Justin Turner figures to opt out after another strong season at the plate. $13.4MM is a strong salary for a player his age but the $6.7MM buyout means he only needs to find another $6.7MM in free agency in order to break even. The Sox will miss his bat but will likely need the designated hitter spot for other guys.
How aggressive the Sox will be for 2024 is an open question and likely won’t be answered until the front office business is complete. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the club’s payroll was one of the top five in the league for much of the century but they’ve dropped down since, settling at 12th place in 2023. Perhaps they will sign off on more spending after having reset their luxury tax status this year, but it also wouldn’t be a shock for a new exec to take a year to slow-play things and evaluate the franchise, an approach that is common.
When factoring in estimated arbitration salaries, Roster Resource pegs the club’s 2024 payroll around $167MM and their competitive balance tax figure at $187MM. Non-tendering depth infielder Luis Urías would knock those numbers down a few million, but the club isn’t too far from the $181MM payroll they had this year. They have a bit more room on the CBT side of things, with next year’s base threshold at $237MM, but it’s unclear if the club plans to spend up to or over that line.
The roster has its share of uncertainty, particularly on the pitching side of things. Chris Sale is coming off a somewhat encouraging season in 2023, as his 102 2/3 innings and 20 starts were more than he threw over 2020-2022 combined. But the results weren’t to his previous levels, with a 4.30 earned run average on the year. Perhaps he can fare better next year when he will be further from his injury struggles, but he will also turn 35 in March.
Nick Pivetta posted an ERA of 6.30 in his first eight starts and got bounced to the bullpen in May. He was able to get things back on track from there, with an ERA of 3.16 the rest of the way, finishing back in the rotation with a 4.04 ERA on the year overall. Brayan Bello made 13 appearances in 2022 but got a fuller audition in 2023, which resulted in some solid but not outstanding results. He registered a 4.24 ERA with a tepid 19.8% strikeout rate, though he limited walks and got heavy doses of ground balls.
Kutter Crawford had a 4.04 ERA this year with good peripherals, though it’s unclear if that’s sustainable since he’s never been a highly-touted prospect. Tanner Houck has shown some potential, but injuries have continually kept him in the range of 100-120 innings. The same is largely true for Garrett Whitlock, though he hasn’t even reached 100 frames since 2018.
Having six semi-plausible starting pitchers isn’t a terrible place to be in, but there isn’t much locked in, especially in the long-term. Sale is entering the final guaranteed year of his deal and Pivetta only has one arbitration season remaining. It wouldn’t be a shock to see the Sox add someone here, though it might not be a top-of-the-market name, depending on where they plan to set payroll. Pitchers like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Aaron Nola are destined for nine-figure contracts, but the Sox could perhaps set their sights on arms like Sonny Gray or old friend Eduardo Rodriguez. Beyond them are veteran bounceback candidates like Marcus Stroman, Jack Flaherty or Lucas Giolito.
The bullpen has a bit more clarity, with veterans Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin each having another year remaining on their respective deals. Josh Winckowski, John Schreiber and Brennan Bernardino have shown promise to varying degrees and should have the inside track for jobs on next year’s club. That still leaves plenty of room for a free agent addition, though any investment here could be on the modest side with Jansen and Martin already giving the club strong high-leverage options. On the other hand, if the new front office decides to make 2024 a sort of evaluation year, maybe Jansen or Martin find themselves on the trade block.
On the position player side of things, the catcher position is probably the most wide open. The Sox gave plenty of runway for Connor Wong and Reese McGuire in 2023, though neither of them took firm hold of the job. They each posted a matching wRC+ of 78 with so-so defensive grades. Wong was great with the running game but poor in terms of blocking and framing, whereas McGuire was generally middling across the board.
Investing in a veteran backstop and non-tendering McGuire would be sensible, though the free agent options aren’t terribly exciting. Mitch Garver and Tom Murphy have strong bats but generally struggle to stay healthy. Austin Hedges and Martín Maldonado have strong reputations as defenders and pitching staff leaders but they’re both poor hitters. Gary Sánchez is arguably the best of the bunch but his half season in San Diego was strong enough that he may have played himself into a two-year deal. The trade route could feature unproven options like Joey Bart or Iván Herrera.
The infield is half set, with Rafael Devers having third base spoken for. He will likely require a move to first base at some point since his defense isn’t strong at the hot corner, but his offense continues to be excellent and he’s under contract for another decade. Whenever it’s time to move over to first, it could be a bit tricky since Triston Casas seems to have established himself over there. He has 29 home runs in his first 159 major league games and has walked at a 14.9% clip, but his glovework isn’t strong either, perhaps leading him and Devers to someday co-exist via the designated hitter slot. But for the time being, it seems fair to expect them to stay on opposite corners.
The middle infield is far more up-in-the-air, with the investment in Trevor Story yet to pay dividends. He hit at a league-average level in 2022 and then required elbow surgery in the winter, not returning to the big leagues until August of 2023. The results were grim, as he struck out in 32.7% of his plate appearances and didn’t do much impact when he put the ball in play. His wRC+ of 48 was one of the 10 worst in the majors, minimum 160 plate appearances, with mostly catchers and bench players around him on that list. The club has little choice but to hope that Story gets back on track, given the four years left on his deal.
As for his double play partner, that’s also a question. The club has taken chances on a number of light-hitting utility guys of late, with the list including Urías, Yu Chang, Pablo Reyes, Hoy Park and Christian Arroyo. Of that group, only Reyes and Urías remain. The latter seems likely to be non-tendered after a rough season and Reyes is best suited for a bench/depth role. David Hamilton and Enmanuel Valdéz are present as optionable depth options.
The club could certainly pursue middle infield help but the options there aren’t great either. Whit Merrifield, Adam Frazier and Amed Rosario are arguably better second basemen than what the Sox currently have in-house, but each are coming off fairly unremarkable seasons.
In the outfield, Jarren Duran had a breakout season in 2023, with a .346 on-base percentage and 24 stolen bases. Even though his season was ended by toe surgery, he should be pencilled into the center field spot, at least as the strong side of a platoon. Alex Verdugo had another passable season, with offense around league average and strong defense. He figures to be in right field, though he also stands out as a possible trade candidate in his final arbitration season with a projected salary of $9.2MM. Masataka Yoshida showed some encouraging signs with his contact-heavy approach resulting in a 109 wRC+ in his first MLB season. The defense was poor, as was expected, though perhaps the Sox are comfortable using their small left field and the DH spot to diminish the effects of his glovework. Long-term, it’s not ideal to have three poor defenders battling for the DH position in Yoshida, Devers and Casas, but it’s semi-workable for now. Rob Refsnyder will be in the outfield mix as a short-side platoon guy.
Younger options could be pushing for time in that outfield mix this year, as each of Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela got into 28 big league games this year. Abreu fared better in those, but it’s too small of a sample to draw broad conclusions from. Roman Anthony is considered by some to be a Top 100 talent and has reached Double-A, perhaps putting a 2024 debut on the table. Miguel Bleis is also a highly-regarded prospect but is further away.
There may be glimmers of hope for the farm to help out at other positions as well, with catcher Kyle Teel having just been selected 14th overall in the most recent draft. Shortstop Marcelo Mayer is a consensus Top 100 guy and second baseman Nick Yorke has been on some of those lists as well. Each of those three got to Double-A in 2023 and won’t be too far from the majors.
Despite all the uncertainty, there are many things to like about this Boston club. They just went 78-84 in the toughest division in the league, with a run differential of -4. It would only take modest improvements to get them into contention for a playoff spot.
Perhaps a new hire would like to take a year to get more looks at young players like Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony, Teel, Mayer and Yorke. There’s plenty of money coming off the books after 2024, with Sale, Jansen, Martin, Pivetta and Verdugo all potential free agents. Maybe some of those guys end up getting moved this winter, freeing up roster space for younger guys. They need help at catcher and in the middle infield, but there aren’t obvious solutions available in free agency and the Sox have possible long-term solutions in the pipeline.
All things considered, the ship isn’t in terrible shape. But as of right now, it’s unclear who is steering it, which direction they’re going or how fast they’ll be allowed to head there. There’s plenty of fog on the horizon but perhaps things will clear up soon.
In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Red Sox-centric chat on 10-24-23. Click here to read the transcript.
Alex Cora Has Had "Very Little" Involvement In GM Hiring Process
- While Red Sox manager Alex Cora took himself out of the running for the club’s opening atop the baseball operations department early in the club’s search for their next GM, at the time it was believed that Cora would play a significant role in the hiring process as Boston looked to replace ousted chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom. This morning, however, MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam notes that Cora’s role in the process may not be as substantial as previously believed. McAdam reports that a source has indicated that Cora has had very little involvement in the process to this point, though McAdam does note that the Red Sox’s intentions of involving Cora were focused on ensuring a good working relationship between the manager and his new boss. Given those goals, it’s certainly possible Cora could have greater impact on the process once the team has narrowed the field of candidates down further.
