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Padres “Exploring” Dylan Cease’s Trade Market

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As the Padres face payroll constraints amid an offseason where starting pitching has been at a premium, the possibility of San Diego fielding interest on right-hander Dylan Cease emerged earlier today with Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune suggesting that the club is anywhere from actively “trying to unload” the right-hander to merely “open to offers” on him. This evening, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin characterized the situation slightly differently, reporting that the club is “at least exploring” Cease’s trade value but also cautioning that San Diego “prefers” to keep Cease in the fold and a trade is not considered likely at this time.

The Padres have plenty of needs this winter, including help in the outfield, starting rotation, and behind the plate. Dealing Cease from a 2025 rotation where he projects to feature prominently alongside Yu Darvish and Michael King would be a substantial hit to an already thin rotation mix, of course, even with with Matt Waldron, Randy Vasquez, Adrian Morejon, Bryan Hoeing, and Stephen Kolek as potential back-end options available internally. It’s for that reason Lin reports the club would seek “multiple controllable players,” including “one or more” starting pitchers. If San Diego were unable to secure enough rotation help from a Cease trade, Lin adds, then they would likely look to flip those players to land other rotation pieces.

Given the club’s rotation needs, it may raise some eyebrows that the club could consider trading Cease even if they don’t receive controllable pitching in return. The logic behind that possibility, per Lin, stems in part from the club’s pessimism regarding their ability to keep Cease in San Diego long-term. While Lin notes the club still “harbors some hope” that they may be able to extend King before he reaches free agency next winter, they believe they have no such chance of being able to afford Cease following the 2025 campaign, when MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to make $13.7MM in his final trip through arbitration.

If Cease were to be traded for young talent, that $13.7MM could be re-invested into the roster and potentially used to a player in free agency, whether that be a mid-level starter like Jose Quintana or Kyle Gibson or help in the outfield, perhaps even in the form of a reunion with Jurickson Profar. Much as that salary relief could be a huge boon to the Padres, it’s not an especially cumbersome figure overall. For that reason, Lin suggests that Cease could find a much wider range of suitors on the trade market this winter than Juan Soto did when San Diego shopped him last year, even as Cease isn’t nearly as impactful as the league’s newly-minted $765MM man.

At least one suitor for Cease’s services has already been named, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported earlier today that the Red Sox are among the teams with interest in Dylan Cease. Boston has long been known to be targeting help at the top of their rotation, and after the club fell short in the pursuit of southpaw Max Fried today their interest in working out a deal to acquire Cease has surely only grown. The Red Sox currently seem focused on courting right-hander Corbin Burnes as they search for top-of-the-rotation help, but the possibility of the club looking to add two front-end starters this winter has been bandied about at times throughout the offseason so even landing a player of that caliber wouldn’t necessarily preclude a deal from taking place.

The Red Sox have a tantalizing cachet of top prospects in their system, though the likes of Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell are generally considered to be untouchable in trade discussions. Catcher Kyle Teel, outfielder Wilyer Abreu, or perhaps even right-hander Garrett Whitlock would be perfect fits San Diego’s needs, though it’s unclear if the Red Sox would be willing to part ways with any of those players in a deal for a rental piece like Cease. While Abreu in particular has been floated frequently as a potential trade candidate this winter, those rumors have typically tended to frame Abreu as the headliner for a package that would land a controllable piece like White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet rather than for a rental arm like Cease.

Red Sox Preparing Offer To Corbin Burnes

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The Red Sox are preparing a formal contract offer to Corbin Burnes, write Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam of MassLive. The former Cy Young winner is the final clear top-of-the-rotation arm available in free agency.

Boston came up empty in their pursuit of Max Fried. While the Sox were one of Fried’s top suitors, they balked at the massive $218MM guarantee which the southpaw landed from their rivals. The Red Sox have also seen reported targets Blake Snell and Nathan Eovaldi head elsewhere. The supply is limiting if the Sox are going to follow through on chief baseball officer Craig Breslow’s stated goal of “raising the ceiling” in the rotation.

Burnes would obviously accomplish that. While the righty hasn’t missed as many bats over the past couple seasons as he did during his best years in Milwaukee, he’s still an ace. Burnes fired 194 1/3 innings of 2.92 ERA ball for the Orioles in his platform year. He added eight innings with one run allowed in his lone postseason start. If the Red Sox were to land Burnes, they’d have one of the stronger rotations in MLB. He’d top a staff also including Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and a hopefully healthy Lucas Giolito.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Burnes would receive a seven-year, $200MM commitment. That’ll almost certainly be light. Burnes was above Fried on virtually every contract prediction (MLBTR’s included). This has been a very strong market for starting pitchers. There’s a chance Burnes could land eight or even nine years on a deal that checks in between $250MM and $300MM at this point.

The Giants and Blue Jays are also known to be involved on Burnes. Baltimore has expressed a desire to keep him around, but that seems to be a longer shot. As a player who rejected a qualifying offer, he’d cost the Sox their second-highest draft pick and $500K of pool space from their 2026 international signing class.

Burnes isn’t the only qualified free agent (nor the lone high-profile Boras Corporation client) whom the Sox are pursuing. Boston is reportedly in the mix for Alex Bregman. In a separate column, McAdam writes that the third baseman is something of a divisive player in the Fenway Park offices. According to McAdam, manager Alex Cora and team president Sam Kennedy are more keen on a Bregman pursuit than Breslow happens to be. Cora is personally familiar with Bregman from his time as bench coach in Houston.

Whether Breslow is lower on Bregman as a player or simply prefers to focus his attention on starting pitching, that’s a potential complicating factor for free agency’s top remaining position player. The Sox presumably aren’t going to come away with both Burnes and Bregman. They could keep Rafael Devers at third base or pursue a Nolan Arenado trade if Bregman heads elsewhere. If they’re looking for a top-of-the-rotation arm and come up empty on Burnes, they’d likely go to the trade market. Reports have cast them more on the periphery of the Garrett Crochet bidding. The Sox floated the possibility of swapping Triston Casas for one of Seattle’s starters, but the Mariners rebuffed that interest while expressing a desire to hold their young pitching.

Max Fried Will Reportedly Choose Destination In Coming Days

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Left-hander Max Fried is one of the top remaining free agents but he could be coming off the board soon. Per a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Fried is expected to pick his next club by Thursday, with the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays presented as the frontrunners. Rosenthal adds that right-hander Corbin Burnes is generating interest from the same three clubs, with the Giants perhaps involved there as well but not for Fried. The Rangers are mentioned as a possibility for Fried but that’s depicted as more of a long shot, with the Angels listed alongside the Giants as cubs that are not finalists for Fried.

It’s perhaps not a coincidence that the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays were finalists in the Juan Soto frenzy and are now listed as the most likely landing spots for Fried. The general expectation throughout the baseball world has been that the clubs with money to spend would focus on Soto until getting clarity on that situation, with those that missed out then pivoting to other targets. Now that Soto is going to the Mets, that seems to be how things are indeed playing out.

All three clubs are looking to make a big splash, though for different reasons. The Yankees just made it to the World Series, but suffered a deflating five-game loss to the Dodgers in which they looked clearly outmatched. They then lost last year’s big splash when Soto moved from the Bronx to Queens. The Red Sox have been dialing back payroll in recent years with lackluster results to go along with it, though now seem motivated to big big dogs again. The Jays were good during the regular season from 2020 to 2023 but suffered heartbreaking ends in each of those years, narrowly missing the playoffs in one of them with three quick postseason exits in the others. They followed that up with a dismal 2024 season that saw them fall to the basement of the A.L. East.

In different ways, each club is looking to both improve their respective rosters for next year while also perhaps mollifying a restive fanbase. Soto would have been one way of doing that but that’s now off the table.

Fried, 31 in January, has been a strong pitcher at the major league level for quite some time. He got brief big league looks in 2017 and 2018 but has been an established big leaguer for the past six seasons. From 2019 to the present, he has tossed 824 2/3 innings, allowing 3.06 earned runs per nine. His 23.8% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate in that time were both a bit above average while his 54.1% ground ball rate was excellent. Only Framber Valdez and Logan Webb had better ground ball rates for that time, among pitchers with at least 550 innings pitched, and Fried had a slightly better strikeout rate than those two. Fried was also a key part of Atlanta’s postseason rotations throughout that time.

There is a little bit of injury risk, as Fried was limited to 14 starts last year due to a forearm strain and had a brief IL stint in 2024 due to neuritis in that same forearm. That’s bit concerning but Fried managed to make 29 starts this year, logging 174 1/3 innings, and there hasn’t been anything to suggest he won’t be healthy for 2025.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Fried could land a six-year deal with a $156MM guarantee, though it’s possible that Fried’s earning power has jumped since then. Pitchers like Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd and Clay Holmes have outearned expectations and the massive Soto deal has perhaps altered industry spending expectations more generally.

For the Yankees, they don’t strictly need pitching. Their rotation is already fairly deep with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, Luis Gil, Marcus Stroman, Nestor Cortes and other options on the roster. However, Fried would certainly upgrade that group and they could then perhaps use the surplus to make a trade, with both Stroman and Cortes have been in previous rumors.

Boston’s chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has said he would like to raise the ceiling of the club’s rotation, which currently has a core three of Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford. The Sox will get Lucas Giolito back at some point during the 2025 season, once he recovers from last year’s elbow surgery. They have depth options like Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell and Quinn Priester but adding Fried would help the club with its aims of improving the rotation and the club more generally.

The Toronto rotation has a veteran core of Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt. It seems likely that Bowden Francis will get a shot at having a spot next year since he was so strong in the second half of 2024. Yariel Rodríguez is an option for the fifth spot but he also has plenty of relief experience and could get bumped to the bullpen. Jake Bloss is on the roster and has encouraging potential but limited experience and could be ticketed for the Triple-A rotation.

While all three clubs are looking at Fried, they have another option in Burnes. He has flashed a higher ceiling than Fried but hasn’t hit that ceiling in the past two years. From 2020 to 2022, he posted a 2.62 ERA with a 33.4% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 47.6% ground ball rate. Over the past two seasons, his 3.15 ERA has still been a strong mark but with a diminished strikeout rate of 24.3%. He is still perceived as a strong option on account of his durability and overall strong results, with MLBTR predicted him for a $200MM guarantee over seven years.

The Giants make sense for a rotation addition and seemingly prefer Burnes to Fried. Their rotation currently consists of Webb, Robbie Ray and Kyle Harrison. President of baseball operations Buster Posey said this week that Jordan Hicks will get another shot at a rotation job. Guys like Hayden Birdsong and Landen Roupp could battle for the fifth spot but getting Burnes would obviously be a boon to the group.

Both Burnes and Fried rejected qualifying offers and are therefore associated with penalties, which differ depending on who ultimately signs them. The Giants are perhaps the most interesting club in this group as they already agreed to sign QO guy in Willy Adames. Since they paid the competitive balance tax last year, that means forfeiting $1MM of international bonus pool space and two draft picks, while signing another QO would effectively double that.

The Rangers’ interest in Fried was reported previously but also characterized as more of a long shot. They definitely want rotation upgrades, including a hope of re-signing Nathan Eovaldi, but they might need more clarity on their finances. They no longer have a broadcast deal with Diamond Sports Group and have been looking into creating their own regional sports network but haven’t quite figured that all out yet. They are reportedly hoping to stay under the CBT in 2025 and they might need to make progress on the broadcast deal before throwing big money around.

The Angels are seemingly only mentioned to touch on Fried’s potential geographic preferences. Fried was born and raised in Southern California, then committed to UCLA before being drafted by the Padres. He was traded to Atlanta as a prospect and has spent his entire major league career with them so far. That club has signed many players to extensions but Fried wasn’t one of them. Rosenthal relays that some clubs feared Fried would prefer to return to the West Coast but it seems his three primary suitors are all A.L. East clubs.

Time will tell how things play out with Fried and Burnes, but it seems that the expected post-Soto domino effect might be coming to pass. As clubs pivot to plan B or plan C or plan D, guys like Fried and Burnes are seeing their markets heat up, which could potentially also impact guys like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso and others soon as well.

Red Sox Interested In Walker Buehler

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The Red Sox are known to be looking for starting pitching, with chief baseball officer Craig Breslow having said that he wants to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation. They have been connected to marquee free agents like Corbin Burnes and Max Fried as well as notable trade candidates like Garrett Crochet, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe reports that Walker Buehler is another free agent they have interest in.

Whether Buehler would count as raising the ceiling would be a matter of debate at this point, as it’s been a few years since he was at his best over a meaningful stretch of time. From 2018 to 2021, he tossed 564 innings for the Dodgers, allowing 2.82 earned runs per nine. He combined a 27.7% strikeout rate with a 6.1% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. He also posted good results in 15 postseason starts for the Dodgers in that time.

But in 2022, he had an ERA of 4.02 before requiring Tommy John surgery, the second of his career. He missed the entire 2023 campaign and didn’t immediately bounce back this year. He only made 16 starts in 2024 and had rough results, most prominently a 5.38 ERA. His 18.6% strikeout rate was below league average and also far from his previous form.

He did finish things on a positive note, in a very small sample but on a very big stage. After getting lit up by the Padres in the NLDS, he went on to throw ten shutout innings over his final three appearances of the Dodgers’ World Series run. That included four shutty against the Mets in the NLCS, a five-inning start against the Yankees in the third game of the World Series, followed by the final three outs in game five.

Going into 2025, Buehler is an interesting risk/reward play. His previous upside is tantalizing but he’s been hurt or middling for the past few years. He did have that strong finish in the playoffs but most modern front offices won’t be swayed by such a small sample, even it was under the brightest lights in baseball.

That uncertainty means that Buehler could likely be had for a relatively low price, which could either turn into a bargain or a waste. The Dodgers declined to issue Buehler a $21.05MM qualifying offer at season’s end, evidently not valuing him worth that price point. At the start of the winter, MLBTR predicted Buehler for a one-year deal with a $15MM, though the market for pitching has been stronger than expected, with mid-rotation or back-end guys like Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd and Clay Holmes outearning their projections so far.

Despite the recent results, Buehler has proven to be quite popular this winter, having already drawn the interest of Atlanta, the A’s, Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Tigers and now Red Sox. For Boston, they tried a buy-low move last year which hasn’t worked out so far. After a few rough years, they gave Lucas Giolito a fairly modest $38.5MM guarantee on a two-year deal but elbow surgery wiped out his 2024 season.

The injury is not really the fault of the Boston front office but Giolito was a risky choice even before that and it was generally expected they would target more surefire rotation upgrades this time around. The club’s decision makers have talked about being aggressive this winter and putting together a club capable of winning the division, even if that means paying the competitive balance tax.

RosterResource pegs the club’s CBT number at $181MM right now, about $60MM shy of the $241MM base threshold. That means they have plenty of room to go after top free agents like Burnes and Fried, but they are also at least considering a more modest strike for someone like Buehler, or perhaps a combination of the two.

The rotation currently projects to include Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello, with openings at the back. Giolito will be expected back at some point, though likely not at the start of the season. Guys like Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell and Quinn Priester are on the roster but fairly unestablished and still optionable. Alongside Buehler, the Sox could consider other mid-rotation or back-end free agents such as Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, Jeff Hoffman, Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and others.

Mariners Turned Down Triston Casas Trade Offer From Red Sox

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The Mariners’ pitching depth over the last few seasons has drawn many teams into trade talks and it was almost exactly a year ago that reports surfaced about Boston’s interest in the Seattle rotation.  Nothing materialized between the two teams then, but Ryan Divish and Adam Jude of the Seattle Times report that earlier this offseason, the Red Sox offered first baseman Triston Casas for either Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo.  However, these “exploratory talks” then “didn’t progress any further,” as the M’s don’t have interest in trading from their rotation unless it is something of a last resort.

Given the contrasting strengths and weaknesses of the Mariners and Red Sox, a pitching-for-hitting swap would seem like an ideal answer to both team’s needs.  While Miller or Woo might not be precisely the kind of ace the Sox are looking for to reinforce their rotation, obviously both are talented young arms with upside and team control — neither Miller or Woo is eligible for arbitration yet, and both are controlled through the 2029 season.  Likewise, Casas is controlled through 2028 and has already shown glimpses of his potential at the MLB level.

Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has consistently turned down past offers for Miller, Woo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Luis Castillo.  Recent reports suggest that the M’s are at least open to hearing what teams have to say about Castillo (the oldest and highest-paid member of the rotation), but Divish and Jude write that “the Mariners….are not actively shopping Castillo.”

Nothing is stopping Dipoto from hearing what teams might have to say, just in case someone steps forth with an offer too good to refuse.  However, Dipoto told Divish and other reporters today that “our initial reluctance to any type of deeper discussions on trading starting pitching has probably resulted in a lot fewer phone calls than we’ve usually fielded to this point in the offseason.”

The result is perhaps something of a stalemate, as the Mariners are waiting for rival teams to lower their asking prices and other clubs are waiting for the M’s to become more open to the idea of trading from the rotation depth.  Things could evolve once some free agent pitchers come off the board, or perhaps if the Mariners themselves added a pitcher in the form of Roki Sasaki.  While virtually every team in baseball will be making an appeal to the Japanese ace now that his posting window is officially open, Seattle’s track record with both pitching development and star Japanese players would seemingly put the M’s move above most teams in the bidding process.

In the interim, it seems as though the Mariners will continue to focus on trying to trade from its minor league depth, except as Dipoto notes, “it’s the time where prospects aren’t a driver, where just about everybody is focused on major league players.  And I don’t know why that seems different to me now than it usually does, and maybe that too changes in a week or two with the free agent market really opening up.”

Since shortstop J.P. Crawford is the only established member of the Mariners’ infield, landing a promising first base talent like Casas would go a long way towards shoring up the infield and the shaky lineup as a whole.  That said, the Mariners have at least a part-time first base option already in Luke Raley, who looks to be getting a good chunk of playing time against right-handed pitching.

Since the M’s have been linked to such second or third base trade candidates as Nico Hoerner or Alec Bohm, it could be that Seattle might be trying to address one of those positions first before turning to the comparatively easier-to-fill position of first base.  An industry source told Divish and Jude that the Mariners could look into trying to add a third team into talks with the Cubs about Hoerner, perhaps to help cover some of the money owed in the remaining two years of Hoerner’s contract.

From Boston’s perspective, trading Casas wouldn’t necessarily create a vacancy at first base.  Rafael Devers is a subpar defender at third base, and reportedly the Sox have at least considered moving him to first base in order to open up the hot corner either for one of Boston’s up-and-coming infield prospects, or perhaps for a big free agent like Alex Bregman.  This remains a speculative topic for now, as manager Alex Cora told reporters (including Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe) today that he hasn’t spoken with Devers about a position change, and Cora in fact praised Devers’ third base work in 2024 as “outstanding.”

Then again, there is no shortage of gamesmanship going on during the offseason, as it was just last month that Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow downplayed the idea of trading Casas.  Reports then surfaced this past weekend that the Sox were considering the possibility of dealing Casas for pitching, and this apparent offer for Miller or Woo only reinforces the idea that Casas is far from an untouchable part of the Red Sox roster.  Of course, this also isn’t to say that Casas is going to be moved for anything less than a premium return.

Yankees, Mets Among Top Suitors For Garrett Crochet

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One day after the Mets and Yankees finished battling for the top free agent, they’re in the competition for arguably the winter’s #1 trade candidate. Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of the Athletic report that the New York teams are currently the most aggressive suitors for White Sox’s lefty Garrett Crochet.

The Athletic writes that the Red Sox and Phillies have also expressed interest, but they appear to be behind the New York teams for the moment. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network put the Brewers on Crochet this morning, though The Athletic report does not mention Milwaukee. Rosenthal and Sammon indicate that no team is close to pulling off a deal yet.

Crochet stayed healthy in his first full season as a starter. The Sox pulled back his workload after failing to line up a deadline trade. Chicago never shut him down or skipped his turns through the rotation, but they abbreviated his starts at the end of the year. Crochet finished the season with 146 innings across 32 appearances. He turned in dominant rate stats, striking out 35.1% of batters faced against an excellent 5.5% walk rate. His 3.58 earned run average didn’t quite align with those fantastic peripherals. That’s at least in part because he was pitching in front of one of the game’s worst defensive teams, contributing to an elevated .318 average on balls in play against him.

Going into 2025, Crochet projects as a top-of-the-rotation arm. He shouldn’t have as many concerns about his workload down the stretch. His deadline trade candidacy was also complicated by the late revelation that he was seeking a contract extension if he’d be asked to pitch into the postseason during his first season as a starter. That’s no longer an obstacle.

Chicago GM Chris Getz spoke in generalities about a potential Crochet trade. He repeated the organization’s preference to add young hitting talent but suggested they weren’t opposed to building around pitching if they felt it was the best offer (X link via Scott Merkin of MLB.com). Getz reiterated that he didn’t feel compelled to make a trade this offseason, though it’d be a major surprise if Crochet were still in a White Sox uniform by the end of March.

Of the New York teams, the Mets have more talent at the top of the farm system. Their system is headlined by shortstop Jett Williams. Baseball America ranks 19-year-old infielder Jesus Baez as the #3 prospect in the organization. Ronny Mauricio is a former top prospect who might’ve opened the season as New York’s third baseman had he not torn his ACL in winter ball last year. Third baseman Brett Baty has seen his stock dip as he’s underperformed against MLB pitching, but he’s drawing attention as a change of scenery candidate. While Baty no longer has the pull to headline a Crochet package, he could be of interest as a secondary piece. (The Sox built their deadline return for Erick Fedde and Michael Kopech around Miguel Vargas, another post-hype infielder.)

The Yankees’ system is headlined by Jasson Domínguez. There’s a sharp drop thereafter, however. It’d be a surprise if the Yanks were willing to put Domínguez in a Crochet package. The switch-hitter may well be New York’s starting center fielder next year, with Aaron Judge potentially kicking to right field after Juan Soto walked. Outfielder Spencer Jones and infielders George Lombard Jr. and Roderick Arias were once viewed as Top 100 type talents, but they’re all coming off somewhat alarming minor league seasons. Jones and Arias struck out at huge rates, while Lombard didn’t hit for much power in A-ball.

Crochet is controllable for two seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a bargain $2.9MM salary. Even for the New York franchises, the affordability is appealing. The Yankees could prefer to attack the lineup in free agency rather than make a top-of-the-market splash for starting pitching. The Mets still need a top-of-the-rotation starter. They’ve thus far shied away from making that kind of move in free agency, instead building the rotation with upside plays for Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas.

Red Sox Interested In Anthony Santander

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The Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox have strong interest in free agent outfielder Anthony Santander, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (X link). The Jays and Yankees have been connected to Santander in previous rumors.

The fit is logical as all three clubs just came up short in their pursuit of Juan Soto. This winter’s free agent outfield market featured Soto at the top, clearly on a tier by himself, well above the rest. The level below featured a cluster of guys including Santander, Teoscar Hernández, Jurickson Profar, Tyler O’Neill, Michael Conforto and others. O’Neill and Conforto are also off the board now, in addition to Soto, so it’s natural that these clubs would pivot to the guys still available.

Santander, 30, doesn’t have Soto’s youth or plate discipline but there’s no doubting the power. He has hit at least 28 home runs in each of the past three seasons, including 44 in the most recent campaign, leading to 105 overall for the 2022-24 seasons. His 8.5% walk rate in that time was right around league average, with his 20.5% strikeout rate slightly better than par. His .244/.317/.478 batting line for that stretch led to a 124 wRC+, indicating he was 24% better than league average.

Given that healthy production, it’s unsurprising that he is generating plenty of interest. What also works in his favor is that he is a switch-hitter without strong platoon splits. As a righty against lefties, he hit .239/.309/.513 in 2024 for a 132 wRC+. For the inverse split, he hit .225/.306/.488 for a 123 wRC+. For his career, he has a 111 wRC+ against lefties and 116 against righties.

That balanced attack means he should be able to fit into the plans of any club with an outfield need, or perhaps an opening at designated hitter. His outfield defense has been subpar in his career, with grades of -3 Defensive Runs Saved and -13 Outs Above Average. He has gotten brief looks at first base recently, with 72 innings at that spot in 2023 and one more in 2024.

Despite the defensive concerns, Santander’s power bat is one of the best available. Perhaps some club would be willing to live with the subpar defense, or maybe try to slot Santander in at first base or designated hitter down the road. At the start of the winter, MLBTR predicted Santander could earn a guarantee of $80MM over four years.

For the Sox, they would likely be looking at Santander as an outfielder. Their corner infield and designated hitter mix is already crowded, with Rafael Devers at third, Triston Casas at first and Masataka Yoshida a primary option for designated hitter. There have been some rumors that the Sox would like to sign a third baseman and move Devers over to the other side of the diamond, which would likely require Casas or Yoshida to be moved.

In the outfield, the Sox have some good options but they could fit Santander into the mix. Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu project to be in two spots, but both are left-handed hitters with notable platoon splits. The lineup is already fairly left-leaning as Devers, Casas and Yoshida all hit from that side as well. The right-handed Rob Refsnyder can help out a bit but having Santander as an everyday option would help stabilize the whole group.

Ceddanne Rafaela could be involved in the outfield group as well but he’s a glove-first option who can also play the infield. Roman Anthony is one of the top prospects in the sport but he has not yet turned 21 years old and only has 35 games of Triple-A experience thus far. He is also a left-handed hitter, so he’ll exacerbate the club’s slant in that direction even if he earns his way into the big league plans.

The Sox have been looking to be aggressive this winter with the rotation being a primary focus but adding Santander or another big bat to the lineup would obviously help as well. They are reportedly even willing to pay the luxury tax under the right circumstances. RosterResource currently projects the club’s tax number at $181MM, which is $60MM below next year’s base threshold of $241MM. That should give them enough wiggle room to sign Santander or another outfielder as well as a notable starting pitcher, if they so choose. The Sox have been connected to various rotation options, including Corbin Burnes and Max Fried.

The Jays and Yankees have been connected to just about every big-name free agent, though both clubs have been focused on Soto until now. The coming days should see them pivot and gauge the market on guys like Fried, Burnes, Santander, Hernández, Alex Bregman and others, as those guys have each been connected to both the Yankees and Jays in rumors this offseason.

The loss of Soto obviously leaves a huge hole in the Yankee outfield, so they will surely be considering various options to bolster the group alongside Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham and Jasson Domínguez. That could include the aforementioned free agents but the Yanks have reportedly contacted the Cubs about a Cody Bellinger trade.

The Jays have George Springer and Daulton Varsho as their two most established outfielders, though Varsho is recovering from shoulder surgery and might not be ready for Opening Day. They have Nathan Lukes, Joey Loperfido, Jonatan Clase and other guys on the roster but those guys are all fairly limited in terms of their major league experience.

Santander rejected a qualifying offer from the Orioles at season’s end, so that club will receive draft pick compensation if he ultimately signs elsewhere. That feels fairly inevitable now that they have an agreement with O’Neill, effectively replacing Santander in the club’s outfield mix. If Santander signs a contract worth more than $50MM, the O’s will get a pick after the first round of the upcoming draft. The signing club will also be subject to penalties, depending on whether they are revenue sharing recipients or paid the competitive balance tax in 2024.

Latest On Alex Bregman

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While the majority of attention figures to be focused on the outfield market in the aftermath of Juan Soto’s decision to sign with the Mets on a record-shattering deal last night, one other beneficiary of the failed suitors’ expected aggressiveness on the rest of the free agent market could be third baseman Alex Bregman. Rob Bradford of WEEI reported last night that the Red Sox may “immediately be prioritizing” a pursuit of Bregman in the aftermath of Soto’s signing as they look to use those funds to sign other top free agents, while USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports this morning that the Yankees are “expected” to make a run at free agency’s top infielder as well.

The Red Sox were previously reported as a potential suitor for Bregman earlier this winter, but their level of interest has not been clear to this point. Now, it appears they may have more significant interest in adding the 30-year-old veteran to their roster after failing to land Soto. Bregman certainly makes plenty of sense for the Red Sox, as he’d help to balance a heavily left-handed lineup as a right-handed hitter with a career .277/.367/.494 slash line against southpaws. What’s more, the club’s crowded outfield mix makes the infield perhaps the most obvious place for Boston to add to the lineup, though they’ve seemingly prioritized adding pitching help (aside from their pursuit of Soto) to this point in the offseason.

Perhaps the biggest obstacle to Bregman landing in Boston is a somewhat questionable positional fit. Bregman has spent virtually his entire big league career at the hot corner, which is currently occupied by Rafael Devers at Fenway Park. That said, it’s easy to see how the Red Sox could fit Bregman into their plans if they’re sufficiently motivated to do so. Bregman has expressed a willingness to slide over to second base if his new team so desires, and the Red Sox have also reportedly considered shifting Devers off third base into either a first base or DH role. There’s potential flaws in either of those plans given the presence of top prospect Kristian Campbell as a potentially big league ready long-term solution at the keystone and Devers’ reported desire to remain at third base for the foreseeable future, but those are issues that could surely be worked around if Boston were sufficiently motivated.

The Yankees, meanwhile, have been a speculative fit for Bregman’s services but have not previously been reported to have interest in the veteran. The club is sure to be aggressive in upgrading its roster now that Soto has landed elsewhere, and an infield that sports little certainty outside of Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Anthony Volpe is an obvious place to start. The club had reported interested in shortstop Willy Adames as a candidate to play either second or third base before he signed with the Giants over the weekend, and Bregman is certainly a logical fit to fill that same role.

Chisholm played third base for the Yankees down the stretch and into the postseason after being acquired from the Marlins last summer but has far more experience at the keystone, so adding a proven third baseman like Bregman could upgrade the club on both sides of the ball by allowing Chisholm to move back to his natural position while adding a reliable hitter who’s never posted a wRC+ lower than 114 in a season to their lineup. One theoretical roadblock to the Yankees signing Bregman could be discontent due to the third baseman being part of the 2017 Astros squad that was implicated in the infamous sign-stealing scandal, though the same could be said for shortstop Carlos Correa and GM Brian Cashman’s front office didn’t let that stop them from pursuing him when he was a free agent three years ago.

Of course, the longtime archrivals of the AL East are hardly the only suitors for Bregman’s services. The Phillies, Blue Jays, and Tigers all reportedly have at least some level of interest in the veteran infield this winter, and the incumbent Astros are perhaps his most obvious suitor of all. Houston has already made an offer to Bregman’s camp this winter, which was reportedly in the range of six years and $156MM. He’s reportedly looking for a deal in the $200MM range, however, and that gap could create room for one of his other suitors to swoop in and pull him away from the Astros. That’s led the club to explore contingency plans in case Bregman signs elsewhere such as infielder Jorge Polanco and first baseman Christian Walker, GM Dana Brown made clear in an appearance on MLBNetwork Radio yesterday that retaining their star third baseman remains the club’s top priority.

“We’re working on it… we’re having a lot of conversations with Scott [Boras], and, you know, we’re optimistic,” Brown said of their pursuit of Bregman. He went on to make clear that, even if they don’t re-sign Bregman in free agency this winter, he expects the club to seek outside help at third base. Brown noted that he believes the club’s internal infield solutions to be anywhere from six months to a year away from being ready for big league action, indicating that at least a stopgap solution at the hot corner such as Polanco will be necessary for Houston should they fail to bring Bregman back into the fold.

Garrett Crochet Rumors: Cubs, Padres, Yankees, Red Sox, Reds

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7:28pm: MLBNetwork’s Jon Morosi reported this evening that a Crochet deal coming together during the Winter Meetings this week is “increasingly possible.” What’s more, Morosi suggests that the Red Sox are “more willing” to listen on top shortstop prospect Marcelo Mayer than previously believed and could become a more significant factor in Crochet’s trade market if they make him available in trade talks with the White Sox.

4:23pm: Garrett Crochet’s status as the offseason’s top trade candidate means that there is plenty of buzz surrounding the White Sox southpaw as the Winter Meetings get underway.  A crosstown trade could be a possibility, as Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that the Cubs “have had at least preliminary talks” with the Sox about Crochet’s availability.

The Cubs’ list of top prospects is heavy on position players, which could fit with White Sox GM Chris Getz’s stated aim of obtaining premium position-player talent in exchange for Crochet’s services.  It is easy to imagine Getz asking for at least one of Matt Shaw or Owen Caissie as a headliner in a trade package, or perhaps even Pete Crow-Armstrong if the Sox wanted a player with some actual big league experience.  Given the Cubs’ depth at both the MLB and minor league levels, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer might feel comfortable in parting with a younger blue-chipper in order to land a controllable pitcher.

Crochet is projected to earn only $2.9MM in arbitration this season, and he is under one further year of team control in 2026.  Even if Crochet’s production takes a dip from his 2024 numbers, he’d still be a bargain in comparison to the cost of the average starting pitcher.  This might be the type of special circumstance that would make the Cubs want to keep adding to their rotation, even though the Wrigleyville starting five already seems set with Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad, and new signing Matthew Boyd.

The White Sox are known to have a very high asking price on Crochet, and apparently had interest in at least one of Ethan Salas or Leodalis De Vries in trade talks with the Padres, as per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.  San Diego has been linked to Crochet on the rumor mill since prior to the trade deadline, yet the Friars have seemingly drawn a line when it comes to moving either of the top two prospects in their farm system.

The Padres and Cubs are just two of the many clubs known to have had some level of interest in Crochet in the last six months, and given his low price, it’s probably safe to say just about every team in baseball has probably at least checked in with Getz about what it would take to land the left-hander.  The Yankees refused to deal Spencer Jones to the White Sox for Crochet prior to the deadline, but MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (X link) writes that New York is still “believed to be in” on the Crochet sweepstakes.

Boston may be a different story, as Cotillo hears that the Red Sox are “just on the periphery of Garrett Crochet talks and are not aggressors at all.”  This tracks with reporting from Cotillo’s MassLive colleague Sean McAdam a couple of weeks ago, as McAdam wrote that negotiations between the two Sox teams had seemingly quieted.  On paper, the Red Sox would seemingly be an ideal fit for Crochet given Boston’s need for frontline pitching and their collection of elite position-player prospects (Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel), but obviously a match depends on what exactly Chicago would want back in return.  For instance, there have been reports that Anthony and Campbell are the true untouchables within the “big four” Red Sox prospects, so talks might have cooled with the White Sox are insisting on one of those two.

There appear to be mixed signals on whether or not the Reds could be involved.  Cotillo writes that “Cincinnati [is] seen as a real threat to land Crochet,” but Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer throws cold water on the possibility, saying that “the talks went nowhere” between the Reds and White Sox, “and there’s no reason to think they’ll re-engage at this point.”  Wittenmyer notes that the two sides discussed Crochet before Cincinnati acquired Brady Singer from the Royals, so that deal could mark the end of any higher-level pitching moves the Reds could make.

Latest On Teoscar Hernandez’s Market

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2:17PM: The Blue Jays also have interest in Hernandez but Anthony Santander appears to be Toronto’s chief backup target if Soto isn’t signed, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (X link).

1:44PM: The Dodgers and Red Sox were previously linked to Teoscar Hernandez’s market earlier this offseason, and MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reports that the Yankees are also looking at the free agent slugger.  The three suitors all have “serious interest” in Hernandez’s services, with one noteworthy caveat — all three clubs are in the running to land Juan Soto, so Hernandez is viewed as the natural backup plan for all parties if Soto can’t be signed.

The Mets and Blue Jays are the two other teams known to still be pursuing Soto.  At the moment, all five teams seem to be still be under consideration even if the Mets and Yankees have reportedly pushed the bidding up into the range of $710-$730MM.  Los Angeles is thought to be the least aggressive of Soto’s five suitors and perhaps seems more likely to break away from the pack to pivot towards Hernandez or another option, but Cotillo figures Hernandez won’t make his own decision until after Soto signs.

Hernandez has openly said that returning to the Dodgers is “the priority” of his offseason, and “I’m going to do everything in my power to come back….It feels great to be part of this.”  After a down year with the Mariners in 2023, Hernandez rebounded in the best possible way by winning a World Series and hitting .272/.339/.501 with 33 home runs over 652 plate appearances with L.A. last season.  Hernandez inked a one-year, $23.5MM contract last winter and now looks poised to land a much heftier multi-year deal this time around.

As sources tell Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe (X link), Hernandez’s preference is still to remain with Los Angeles, though the Red Sox have a solid case in their own right for the slugger’s services.  The Sox made a push for Hernandez last year in offering him a two-year, $28MM deal that Hernandez turned down in order to take the greater flexibility of the Dodgers’ one-year offer, plus L.A. was the more clear-cut contender heading into 2024.  Hernandez “has long been intrigued by the idea of playing at Fenway Park and he’s a fan of Alex Cora,” Abraham writes, so with a World Series ring now in tow, Hernandez could now explore a move to Boston and perhaps a big role in a future Red Sox championship team.

The Yankees shouldn’t be overlooked as contenders, as Hernandez has also enjoyed a lot of success at Yankee Stadium over the years.  New York might have the most incentive of all these teams to bolster the lineup if Soto departs, even if adding a big bat in the infield is also a priority since Gleyber Torres and Anthony Rizzo are free agents and unlikely to return.

Rejecting the Dodgers’ qualifying offer probably won’t have much impact on Hernandez’s market, though the Yankees and Red Sox would face a differing penalty level for signing the outfielder (or any player who rejected a QO).  Because New York was a luxury tax payor in 2024, signing Hernandez would cost the Yankees $1MM in international bonus pool money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft.  Boston would have to give up $500K of int’l pool funds and their second-highest 2025 draft pick.  Los Angeles, of course, wouldn’t have to give up anything to sign Hernandez, as he is one of the Dodgers’ own free agents.

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