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Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

No-Doubters

There’s zero suspense with this quintet. They’re going to receive qualifying offers, which they’ll easily decline. Soto is on his way to a record-setting deal. Adames and Bregman are locks for nine figures. Alonso has a solid chance to get there as well. It’s tougher to envision a $100MM contract for Santander, but he shouldn’t have any issue securing three or four years at an average annual value that’s around the QO price. As revenue sharing recipients, the Brewers and Orioles will get picks after the first round in the 2025 draft (assuming Adames and Santander sign for more than $50MM). The Mets, Yankees and Astros all paid the luxury tax and would only get a pick after the fourth round if they lose their qualified free agents.

Likely Recipients

We placed Hernández in the “likely” bucket last offseason when he was coming off a down year with the Mariners. Seattle opted not to make the QO and let him walk, citing a desire to cut back on the swing-and-miss profile that Hernández brings. That paved the way for the Dodgers to add him on a heavily deferred $23.5MM pillow contract. It was one of the best value signings of the winter. Hernández returned to peak form, bopping a career-best 33 homers with a .272/.339/.501 line through 652 plate appearances. That’s more than enough power to live with a few strikeouts and a fringy defensive profile in the corner outfield.

The cherry on top for L.A. is that Hernández remains eligible for the QO in his return to free agency. The Dodgers could accommodate a $21MM salary in the unlikely event that he accepts. As luxury tax payors, they’d only receive a pick after the fourth round in next year’s draft if he declines and walks. That minimal compensation is the biggest reason Hernández isn’t a lock, but he’s very likely to decline the QO in search of three or four years. The downside if he accepts is that he returns at a similar price point to the one Los Angeles offered coming off a rough season. Opting against the QO only makes sense if the Dodgers are fully committed to giving Andy Pages a look in left field next season.

Walker has seized upon a late-career opportunity with the Diamondbacks to develop into one of the sport’s best first basemen. He’s a Gold Glove caliber defender who topped 30 homers in both 2022 and ’23. He’d have gotten there again this season if not for an oblique injury that cost him the entire month of August. Walker had to “settle” for 26 homers with a .251/.335/.468 slash over 130 games.

The South Carolina product turns 34 just after Opening Day. He’s looking at four years at most and could wind up signing for two or three seasons. That could come at a comparable AAV to the qualifying offer price, though, and this is likely Walker’s only chance to really cash in on a multi-year contract. He’d likely decline a QO. If he didn’t, the D-Backs should be happy to have him back for another season at just over $21MM. The majority of MLBTR readers agree; more than 70% of respondents in a poll over the weekend opined that the Diamondbacks should make the offer.

Long Shots

It’s tough to see a qualifying offer for anyone in this group. Goldschmidt is the least likely. The Cardinals are entering a retooling year and he’s coming off the worst season of his career. The former MVP hit better in the second half than he did in the first. He should land a strong one-year deal but isn’t likely to get to $21MM.

Kim looked like a lock for the QO before suffering a late-season labrum injury in his throwing shoulder. He underwent surgery that’ll almost certainly sideline him into the early part of next year. There’s a decent chance he’d accept, which isn’t a great outcome for a Padres team that may enter the offseason already up against the budget. Payroll is a similar concern regarding Profar, who is coming off easily the best season of his career. He’s been wildly inconsistent throughout his decade-plus in the big leagues. San Diego baseball operations president A.J. Preller loves Profar, but $21MM+ is a lot for a team with a massive arbitration class and needs at shortstop and in the rotation. The Padres could try to bring him back for three or four years at a lesser annual hit.

O’Neill had a productive season for the Sox, hitting 31 homers with a .241/.336/.511 slash. He added three more IL stints to his lengthy career injury history, though, and the overwhelming majority of his production came against left-handed pitching. O’Neill’s righty bat provides a nice balance in a Boston lineup that skews heavily to the left side, but the QO price feels steep for this profile. There’s a strong chance he’d accept.

Torres would not have warranted a mention on this list a couple months ago. He had an excellent finish to the regular season (.306/.375/.417 after August 1) and has a .297/.400/.432 slash with more walks than strikeouts in October. That’s enough to at least get him back on the radar, but a QO still feels like a stretch. He’s a poor defensive second baseman whose overall season line — .257/.330/.378 in 665 plate appearances — was essentially league average.

At the trade deadline, the Yankees seemed set to turn the keystone to Jazz Chisholm Jr. and let Torres walk. They could keep Chisholm at the hot corner, but they’d need to overlook the flaws Torres showed for a good portion of the regular season. There’s a strong chance he’d accept a QO, which would put the Yanks on the hook for more than $44MM after accounting for the corresponding luxury tax hit. Tying that money up a week into an offseason where they’ll face a massive bidding war on Soto probably isn’t happening. That’s especially true since the compensation they’d receive if Torres declines (a pick after the fourth round) isn’t particularly valuable.

Ineligible

Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. That’s largely a moot point with regard to the position player class, as no one from this group was likely to receive one anyways. Bellinger probably won’t opt out of the two years and $50MM left on his deal with the Cubs. Conforto and Pederson would’ve been fringe candidates at best even if they hadn’t received the offer earlier in their careers.

Red Sox Hire Taylor Smith From Rays For Possible AGM Role

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The Red Sox are nearing a deal to hire Taylor Smith for an unspecified analytics-based role in the club’s front office, according to MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam and Chris Cotillo.  Smith could be joining the ranks as an assistant general manager, which would presumably also come with some type of VP title like Boston’s other four assistant GMs under chief baseball officer Craig Breslow.

Smith had been working with the Rays as Tampa Bay’s director of predictive modeling.  He has been with the organization since graduating from the University of Georgia in 2018, and Smith was initially hired as an analyst in Tampa’s research and development team.  He’ll now head to a larger role in Boston, becoming the latest in a seemingly endless line of Rays staffers hired by other teams to try and learn from Tampa Bay’s consistent success in player development.

As McAdam wrote in another piece earlier this week, assistant GM Mike Groopman had been considered the “de facto overseer” of Boston’s analytics operations, but Groopman was being shifted into another role “with more of a focus on player acquisition.”  It would seem that Smith will now be filling the gap left behind by Groopman’s role change, and it remains to be seen some more shuffling could be on the way.

Paul Toboni, another assistant GM, has been rumored to be the top in-house name to become Breslow’s official top lieutenant as Boston’s general manager, so if Toboni is promoted, the Red Sox would still have four AGMs (Smith, Groopman, Raquel Ferreira, Eddie Romero) in place.  McAdam suggests that promoting Toboni might also be a way of keeping him within the organization, and away from GM vacancies with the Giants and Mets.  There are some links between Toboni and other those jobs, as McAdam writes that Toboni is from the Bay Area, and he previously worked with Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns in the Brewers’ front office.

Red Sox Notes: Coaching Staff, Front Office, Fulmer

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While free agency won’t open for a few more weeks at this point, the Red Sox already have plenty of work on their offseason to-do list. Earlier this month it was reported that several changes were coming to the club’s coaching staff, and Sean McAdam of MassLive.com recently floated a possible name for the job of assistant hitting coach: Dillon Lawson, who has spent the past year as chief baseball office Craig Breslow’s minor league hitting coordinator.

Prior to joining the Red Sox last winter, Lawson had worked as a hitting coach in the minor leagues for the Astros and Royals until he joined the Yankees in 2018. Lawson started out as the club’s minor league hitting coordinator, the same role he has now with Boston, before being promoted to the role of hitting coach prior to the 2022 season. Lawson lasted just a season and a half in the role before being fired mid-way through the 2023 season, the first time the Yankees fired a coach midseason since 1998.

Despite that unfortunate piece of trivia, however, it’s fair to note that it’s unclear how much blame Lawson really deserved to shoulder for the club’s offensive woes in 2023. After all, the club’s wRC+ after firing Lawson (90) was actually slightly worse than it was under Lawson’s guidance (93), suggesting that the club’s struggles may have been due to lackluster performances from individual veterans such as Kyle Higashioka, Giancarlo Stanton, and DJ LeMahieu. Regardless of who is to blame for New York’s struggles on offense last year, the Red Sox were clearly pleased by Lawson’s work with the club’s young players in the upper minors this year if they’re considering him for a role with the big league coaching staff.

Shifting focus towards the front office, McAdam also notes that there’s an apparent top candidate for the as-of-yet-unfilled GM role directly below Breslow in the club’s baseball operations hierarchy. Per McAdam, there’s “little doubt” that the top internal candidate for the role is assistant GM Paul Toboni, who was promoted to his current position back in January after previously acting as the club’s VP of amateur scouting and player development to become one of four assistant GMs below Breslow, joining Raquel Ferreira, Eddie Romero and Mike Groopman.

McAdam adds that an executive with another club suggested that Toboni could be highly sought-after by rival organizations if the club were to settle on another candidate for the GM role. An internal candidate to replace Chaim Bloom as chief baseball officer before the club settled upon hiring Breslow, it’s possible that Toboni could receive interest from another club such as the Giants (who are in the midst of their own GM search) or Twins (who recently parted ways with GM Thad Levine) in the event that Breslow ultimately settles on an external candidate to act as his second-in-command with the Red Sox.

Turning back towards the players on the field, McAdam also notes that the Rule 5 protection deadline next month will come with a number of decisions for the Red Sox. It’s hardly uncommon for a club to face tough calls about whether to add a prospect to their 40-man roster or risk leaving them exposed to that winter’s Rule 5 draft, but Boston has one particularly unusual candidate for protection: veteran right-hander Michael Fulmer. Fulmer signed with the Red Sox on a two-year minor league deal last winter after undergoing surgery on his UCL and appears to be on track to be ready for Spring Training in February.

The 31-year-old’s unique situation as an experienced big leaguer with a solid 3.55 ERA since moving to the bullpen back in 2021 would make him a very attractive addition to the majority of clubs’ bullpen mix, as he could be added without the uncertainty that surrounds typical Rule 5 picks that are plucked out of the minors without any big league experience under their belts. Given Fulmer’s big league experience and the fact that he has more than enough service time to reject an optional assignment to the minors anyway, opposing clubs would shoulder relatively minimal risk if they decided to select Fulmer, meaning the Red Sox will likely have to add him to their 40-man roster next month if they hope to retain him for 2025.

Red Sox Name Kyle Boddy Interim Director Of Baseball Science

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  • The Red Sox promoted Kyle Boddy to the role of director of baseball science on an interim basis, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reports (via X).  The position appears to be a newly-created job within the Sox front office, as Brad Alberts is credited in the team’s directory as the “team lead” of baseball sciences, but there is no director position.  Boddy founded the data-based Driveline Baseball training facility in 2012, and then moved into an official role with a big league club when he was the Reds’ pitching coordinator for the majority of the 2020-21 seasons.  The Red Sox brought Boddy aboard last January as an advisor to chief baseball officer Craig Breslow.

Latest On Michael Fulmer

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  • It was almost exactly one year ago that Michael Fulmer underwent a UCL revision surgery, which ended the right-hander’s 2024 season before it even began.  After a year of rehab, however, Fulmer told WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford (X link) that he is back to throwing off a mound and “is trending well for” the start of Spring Training.  Despite the injury, Fulmer still landed a contract last offseason, as the Red Sox signed him to a two-year minor league contract with the knowledge that the 2024 campaign would be a wash.  Fulmer’s turn towards relief pitching in 2021 yielded pretty positive results over the 2021-23 seasons, and if he finally get healthy during what has been an injury-plagued career, Fulmer is an intriguing no-risk flier for the Sox heading into next season.

Masataka Yoshida Undergoes Shoulder Surgery

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12:46 pm: According to Ian Browne of MLB.com, the Red Sox are hoping Yoshida will be back in the lineup and ready to play on Opening Day.

11:44 am: Masataka Yoshida had surgery to repair the labrum in his right shoulder earlier this month, the Red Sox announced. The 31-year-old sat out the final two games of the regular season as he contemplated how to address the shoulder soreness that had bothered him for most of the year. He underwent an MRI after the season, and evidently, the results convinced him and the Red Sox that surgery was the best course of action.

The Red Sox described the procedure as “successful,” though it’s unclear what that means regarding Yoshida’s timeline to return. The usual recovery period for position players who undergo a labrum repair is somewhere between four to six months. Reds infielder Matt McLain had labral repair surgery this past March and initially hoped to return in August before suffering a setback. Meanwhile, Padres shortstop Ha-Seong Kim had a labrum repair of his own this offseason, and he is hoping to return sometime between mid-April and early May. Kim’s anticipated timeline is slightly longer than McLain’s, but it’s worth noting that Kim’s injury was in his throwing shoulder while McLain’s was not. Yoshida’s injury is also in his throwing shoulder, but as a designated hitter and a left-handed batter, perhaps his recovery timeline will be on the shorter end of the spectrum. If his timeline is similar to McLain’s original goal, he could be ready to return to game action sometime next March.

The 2024 season was complicated for Yoshida in terms of both his injury status and playing time. There was reportedly tension throughout the year between Yoshida and the Red Sox, both because he sought outside opinions regarding a thumb injury against the team’s wishes and because he was unhappy to be limited to a platoon DH role when healthy. Thus, between his injury troubles, defensive shortcomings, and poor performance against left-handed pitching, not to mention any behind-the-scenes tension, Yoshida’s tenure in Boston hasn’t gotten off to the strongest start. It’s fair to wonder if a change of scenery would do him some good, although his recent surgery and the $55.8MM remaining on his contract through 2027 could make a trade difficult to put together.

If Yoshida remains with the Red Sox next season, it’s hard to imagine his role changing all that much. Boston has two of the best defensive corner outfielders in the league, with Jarren Duran manning left field and Wilyer Abreu covering right. Duran can play center as well, but former top prospect Ceddanne Rafaela is far more valuable as an elite defensive center fielder than a stopgap shortstop, and he needs regular playing time if he’s going to improve at the plate. On the offensive side of things, Yoshida is going to need to slowly earn back playing time against left-handed pitchers; he put up a 103 wRC+ against lefties in 2023 but a dreadful 58 wRC+ against southpaws in 2024. Considering the Red Sox will already have at least four lefty batters in the everyday lineup next year – Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, Duran, and Abreu – it’s understandable why Cora might prefer to sub out Yoshida for a right-handed bat at DH. Thus, if Yoshida wants to be an everyday player for the Red Sox in 2025, he’ll need to make a quick recovery over the offseason and come to camp ready to address his weaknesses at the plate and in the field.

MLBTR Podcast: Previewing FA Starting Pitchers, TV Deals, And Potential Spending Teams

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • MLBTR’s early discussions for the upcoming Top 50 Free Agents post and the starting pitchers at the top of this winter’s market (1:00)
  • The ongoing bankruptcy drama of Diamond Sports Group and how the upcoming offseason looks in terms of possible spending (11:45)
  • The Red Sox seem poised for an aggressive offseason (20:35)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Y’all have repeatedly talked about the Tigers being at the beginning a strong period and riding a youth movement to the ALDS (if not further). In addition to adding some talent from outside the organization this winter, can we expect to see some of the homegrown guys being extended? Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter seem like solid options beside the obvious Tarik Skubal. (24:30)
  • Did the reduction in time of the average baseball game negatively impact stadium concession sales? If a Dodger game goes from 3 hours to 2 1/2 hours, are they selling less beer? (28:05)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Red Sox Making Multiple Coaching Changes

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The Red Sox are moving on from six coaches, reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. According to Speier, the departures from Alex Cora’s staff include first base coach Andy Fox, bullpen coach Kevin Walker, assistant hitting coach Luis Ortiz, mental skills coach Rey Fuentes, trainer Ben Chadwick and bullpen catcher Mani Martinez.

Fox was promoted to first base coach this past season. He’d previously spent time as Boston’s field coordinator. Fox had been in the organization for more than a decade. He played parts of nine seasons in the big leagues as a utility infielder, spending the bulk of that time with the Diamondbacks and Marlins.

Ortiz, who briefly appeared in the majors with the Red Sox during the mid-1990s, had been an assistant hitting coach for the last three years. Ortiz held the lead hitting job on Chris Woodward’s staffs with the Rangers between 2018-21. Ben Rosenthal has overlapped with Ortiz as an assistant to primary hitting coach Peter Fatse in Boston.

The Sox tabbed Walker as bullpen coach during the 2020-21 offseason. He’d spent the shortened season as an assistant pitching coach. Boston’s bullpen has generally been middle-of-the-pack over the past four years. The relief group was a disappointment this season, finishing 24th with a 4.39 earned run average and 23rd in strikeout percentage (21.9%). The bullpen cratered down the stretch. Only the Nationals’ relievers had a lower strikeout rate in the second half. No team had a worse ERA after the All-Star Break than the Sox’s 5.45, while Boston relievers led MLB with 16 blown leads.

That’s not all on the coaching staff, of course. The front office’s deadline pickups of Lucas Sims and Luis García didn’t work. Kenley Jansen missed most of September, while Chris Martin was shelved for the bulk of July. Nevertheless, the bullpen was one of the biggest factors in the Sox falling out of the Wild Card race, so they’ll look for a new voice. Strengthening the group in front of Rule 5 success story Justin Slaten and a hopefully health Liam Hendriks should be an offseason priority for Craig Breslow and his staff.

Luis Tiant Passes Away

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Three-time All-Star pitcher Luis Tiant passed away this morning, the Red Sox confirmed. He was 83 years old. The right-hander played for seven organizations throughout his 19-year MLB career, though he is best remembered for the eight seasons he spent in Boston.

“Luis had a style of pitching that was as memorable as it was effective, but to me, the rarer gift was his ability to lift you up with just a smile,” said Red Sox president & CEO Sam Kennedy, as part of a statement issued by the team. “When you were with him, you were reminded of what really matters. Whether you were a teammate, a fan, or just someone fortunate enough to share a conversation, Luis had a way of making you feel special, like you were a close friend. His legacy on the mound is undeniable, but all of us today are mourning the man, the friend, the mentor who connected generations of fans and players. I am gutted by the news of his passing and will miss him more than words can express. Spring Training won’t be the same without Luis’s infectious energy spreading throughout camp.”

Tiant was born in Marianao, Cuba on November 23, 1940. His father, Luis Tiant Sr., was himself a star pitcher in the Negro Leagues, as well as the Cuban League, Dominican League, and Mexican League. It didn’t take long for the younger Luis Tiant to make a name for himself, pitching for the Mexico City Tigers of the Mexican League and Havana Sugar Kings in the International League as a teenager.

At 21 years old, Tiant made his debut in Cleveland’s minor league system. Two years later, he joined the major league team, making 19 appearances (16 starts) with a 10-4 record and a 2.83 ERA in 127 innings pitched. Across six seasons in Cleveland from 1964-69, he threw 1,200 innings with a 2.84 ERA and an 83 ERA- (17% better than the league average). His 1,041 strikeouts ranked 11th among all pitchers in that time. The highlight of Tiant’s tenure in Cleveland was the 1968 season, in which he went 21-9 and led the American League with a 1.60 ERA. He made his first career All-Star team that year and finished fifth in voting for AL MVP.

Following a disappointing 1969 season (for both Tiant and Cleveland), Cleveland traded Tiant and Stan Williams to Minnesota in exchange for Dean Chance, Bob Miller, Ted Uhlaender and Graig Nettles. However, his time with the Twins was brief. He pitched well when he was on the mound, going 7-3 with a 3.40 ERA (89 ERA-) over 92 2/3 innings, but a broken scapula derailed his season in May. At the time, that was considered a much more serious injury – possibly even career-threatening – and indeed, Tiant did not look nearly as sharp upon his return. The Twins released him the following spring.

After a brief and unsuccessful stint in the Braves minor league system, Tiant caught the attention of the Red Sox organization. It turned out to be a match made in baseball heaven. While he struggled in his first season with his new club, the righty turned things around the following year. He introduced his now-trademark deceptive delivery and went 15-6 with an MLB-leading 1.91 ERA. He finished sixth in Cy Young voting and earned some down-ballot support for AL MVP.

Over eight years in Boston, Tiant went 122-81 with a 3.36 ERA (85 ERA-) in 1,774 2/3 innings pitched. He was named to a couple of All-Star teams and earned Cy Young and MVP votes in three seasons (1972, ’74, ’76). He led the AL in WHIP in 1973 and tied for the major league lead with seven shutouts in 1974. In 1975, he played a pivotal role in the playoffs, pitching a complete game in Game 1 of the ALCS, and 25 innings over three starts in the World Series. The Red Sox won all four games he started, but they lost all four games he did not pitch in the World Series, losing to the Reds in seven games.

As he entered his mid-thirties, Tiant became more of a precision pitcher, getting fewer strikeouts but also giving up fewer walks. He was a valuable contributor to the Red Sox every season from 1972-78, even as he became less durable (by 1970s standards) in his final two years with the club. Unfortunately, his tenure with the Red Sox ended on slightly sour terms; Tiant believed the team didn’t take him seriously in negotiations when his contract was up after the 1978 campaign (per John Powers of the Boston Globe).

Thus, Tiant spent the final four years of his career with the Yankees (1979-80), Pirates (1981), and Angels (1982). He made 55 starts and threw 332 innings over his age-38 and 39 seasons in New York, but his major league career was winding down by the time he signed with the Pirates at age 40. Still, he appeared in nine games for the Pirates in 1981 and six for the Angel in 1982. He also prolonged his professional career by returning to the Mexican League in 1983, and later the short-lived Senior Professional Baseball Association in 1989.

Following his playing career, Tiant worked as a scout for the Yankees in Mexico before landing coaching jobs in the minor leagues with the Dodgers (1992-95) and White Sox (1997). He also served as the pitching coach for the Nicaraguan national team in the 1996 Summer Olympics and later worked as the head coach for the Savannah College of Art and Design baseball team (1998-2001). In 2002, he returned to the Red Sox organization, working as a minor league coach (2002), Spanish language broadcaster (2002-03), and special assignment instructor (2004-24).

Tiant is arguably one of the greatest players excluded from the National Baseball Hall of Fame. Over 15 years on the BBWAA ballot, he never received close to enough support to reach the 75% threshold necessary for election. He has since fallen short on several committee ballots. While he never won any major awards and only earned three All-Star selections throughout his career, modern statistics make it clear that Tiant was underappreciated in his time. With 66.1 career Baseball Reference WAR and 44.1 bWAR during his seven-year peak, he falls slightly below the 73.0 career bWAR and 44.9 peak bWAR of the average Hall of Fame starting pitcher. However, his 55.1 JAWS is higher than that of more than 40 Hall of Fame pitchers. His 229 wins, 2416 strikeouts, and 66.1 career bWAR also rank first among all Cuban-born pitchers. Tiant could be up for Hall of Fame consideration again this winter on the Classic Baseball Era Committee ballot, though it is important to keep his wishes in mind. Speaking to ESPN Deportes in 2008, he said, “If you don’t take me in life, don’t try to elect me after I die, please.”

Thankfully, Tiant’s phenomenal career did not go unrecognized in his retirement. He was inducted into the Red Sox Hall of Fame in 1997, the Hispanic Heritage Baseball Museum Hall of Fame in 2002, and the Venezuelan Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum in 2009 (he spent seven seasons playing winter ball in the Venezuelan League during his major league career).

Known to fans as El Tiante, Luis Tiant will be remembered for his captivating windup, captivating performances, and equally captivating personality. His 49 shutouts are tied for 21st all-time, while his 2416 strikeouts are 48th-most in major league history. His sense of humor, however, was second to none; Red Sox teammate Dwight Evans claims Tiant could “turn a bus ride into something out of Saturday Night Live” (per Powers). We at MLB Trade Rumors send our heartfelt condolences to Tiant’s family, friends, and fans.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Craig Breslow, Sam Kennedy Discuss Red Sox’ Offseason

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The Red Sox flirted with playoff contention at times in 2024 but ultimately fell short, finishing five games back of a Wild Card spot at 81-81. That puts their focus on the offseason and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe published a column today, trying to read the tea leaves on some recent comments from chief baseball officer Craig Breslow as well as president and CEO Sam Kennedy.

Notably, the comments suggest the club plans to enter the winter with more of a win-now mentality. “It’s time to take that next step. It really is time,” said Kennedy. “You really need to build a roster and have a team that is built to win that division. That’s where we want to get to. We just have to go and do the right things that put us in that position to push towards 90-95 wins.” Kennedy has also stated that the club feels they have “building blocks” in place that they can construct a club around.

Of course, many fans will be quick to point to chairman Tom Werner’s “full throttle” comments from a year ago as a reason to be skeptical, since the club didn’t really follow through on that promise. Generally speaking, the Sox had a relatively future-focused offseason going into 2024, with the most notable move being the trade that sent Chris Sale to Atlanta for infielder Vaughn Grissom. That deal has gone very poorly so far for the Sox, as Sale went on to have an excellent season for his new club while Grissom struggled immensely after that deal.

But as Speier points out, most of the comments made by the Boston brass around this time a year ago were far more measured, with the “full throttle” quote being the exception that received the most attention. Breslow has recently suggested that a deal like the Sale-Grissom swap will get less consideration this offseason.

“That was a decision that was made with a longer-term focus in mind as much as 2024,” said Breslow on NESN’s 310 to Left podcast, as relayed by Speier. “Exclusively looking at the future is not something that we should be prepared to do as we embark on this offseason heading into 2025. Otherwise, fans would be rightfully frustrated with this continued push-off into the future of the window of contention. We can no longer ask our fans to look to the future, to think about a Red Sox team that’s capable of winning the division and capable of making a deep postseason run. We have to talk to decisive actions that we’re taking right now to put a better team on the field in 2025.”

Breslow echoed Kennedy’s comments that the club is setting a high target for next year. “It’s time to deliver the team that’s capable of winning the AL East and making a deep playoff run,” said Breslow. “If that means that guys who haven’t yet made their big-league debut need to be on the team to help us do that, then we have to be prepared for that. And if it means we have to be aggressive in bringing players in who aren’t currently in the organization to complement those who are, we have to be open to doing that as well.”

If the Red Sox are planning to be more aggressive, that could come in many forms. One of them would be financially, as the club could decide to return to being a top spender. Per the calculations of Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Sox had one of the top five payrolls in the league from 2004 to 2020, including being first overall a few times, but they have dipped since. They were eighth in 2021, sixth the year after that and then 12th in the two most recent seasons.

Per RosterResource, the Sox have about $105MM committed to the 2025 roster, well shy of this year’s $183MM. That doesn’t include the club’s arbitration-eligible players, but they have a fairly modest class this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects salaries just under $5MM for Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Jarren Duran, the entirety of the club’s arb group. Even if Boston were only to carry the same payroll forward from 2024 to 2025, they would have a lot of powder dry, while they would naturally have even more to work with if they decide to push payroll up.

Another possibility would be to be active on the trade front, with Breslow acknowledging that they might have to make some tough decisions about which players stay and which ones go. “There are going to be a lot of really good major league players who aren’t going to realize their value in Red Sox uniforms because only one guy can do that at a time at second base or shortstop or center field,” said Breslow.

The Sox have promoted a number of young prospects to the big leagues in recent years, with those players having varying degrees of major league success. Duran had a huge step forward defensively this year, which made him a hugely valuable piece when combined with his offense and baserunning. He’s only just reaching arbitration for the first time as a Super Two player and can be retained for four more seasons. Triston Casas has a great combination of power and on-base ability, with four years of club control beyond this one. Connor Wong and Wilyer Abreu also had some encouraging results in 2024 and will still be pre-arb in 2025.

On top of those players, the Sox also have long-term deals for Rafael Devers, Trevor Story, Ceddanne Rafaela and Masataka Yoshida. They could pick up a cheap 2025 option on Rob Refsnyder for $2.1MM. There’s also the club’s emerging group of position player prospects. Catcher Kyle Teel, infielder/outfielder Kristian Campbell, shortstop Marcelo Mayer and outfielder Roman Anthony are all considered top 100 guys and each has now reached the Triple-A level, so they will be pushing for major league jobs next year. (Mayer technically hasn’t played in a Triple-A game yet as he landed on the injured list shortly after being promoted to that level.)

With Danny Jansen heading to free agency, there could be an easy path for Teel to eventually share time behind the plate with Wong. If Mayer eventually takes over the club’s shortstop job, Story could perhaps move to second, squeezing out other guys on the roster. Rafaela has played both the middle infield and the outfield, but Boston’s options on the grass already include Duran, Abreu and Refsnyder with Anthony on the way. Campbell, like Rafaela, can play both the middle infield and the outfield and will be a factor somewhere at some point.

As Breslow suggested, the club likely can’t find jobs for everyone here, which will naturally lead to some interesting trade discussions this winter. With all these players and only so many spots, perhaps Breslow could acquire some pitching from another club. Boston had a collective 4.05 earned run average in 2024, 16th among the 30 major league clubs. They are now slated to lose Nick Pivetta, Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin to free agency.

Between the trade market and the club’s financial situation, Breslow should have all kinds of options to consider this winter as he tries to push the Sox forward in a crowded American League East for 2025. The Yankees and Orioles just wrapped up strong seasons. The Rays and Blue Jays disappointed in 2024 but have been in good form in prior years and will be looking to bounce back in 2025.

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