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2023 Rule 5 Draft Results

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The 2023 Rule 5 draft will begin at 1pm Central time today at the Winter Meetings in Nashville.

As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and have played five professional seasons, and any players who signed at 19 years of age or older at signing that now have four professional seasons, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

The clubs will draft in reverse order of the 2023 standings, with no club obligated to make a selection when it’s their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2024 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors. Last year’s edition saw some key players change clubs, such as Ryan Noda going from the Dodgers to the Athletics and Blake Sabol going from the Pirates to the Giants.

This post will be updated as the draft continues. Here is the order…

1.  Athletics: RHP Mitch Spence (Yankees)
2. Royals: RHP Matt Sauer (Yankees)
3. Rockies: RHP Anthony Molina (Rays)
4. White Sox: LHP Shane Drohan (Red Sox)
5. Nationals: SS Nasim Nuñez (Marlins)
6. Cardinals: RHP Ryan Fernandez (Red Sox)
7. Angels: pass
8. Mets: RHP Justin Slaten (Rangers); Mets later traded Slaten to the Red Sox for LHP Ryan Ammons* and cash considerations.
9. Pirates: pass
10. Guardians: 3B Deyvison De Los Santos (Diamondbacks)
11. Tigers: pass
12. Red Sox: pass
13. Giants: pass
14. Reds: pass
15. Padres: RHP Stephen Kolek (Mariners)
16. Yankees: pass
17. Cubs: pass
18. Marlins: pass
19. Diamondbacks: pass
20. Twins: pass
21. Mariners: pass
22. Blue Jays: pass
23. Rangers: RHP Carson Coleman (Yankees)
24. Phillies: pass
25. Astros: pass
26. Brewers: pass
27. Rays: pass
28. Dodgers: pass
29. Orioles: pass
30. Braves: pass

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. A few former major leaguers changed uniforms. They include 1B Seth Beer going from the Diamondbacks to the Pirates while the Yankees took RHP Kervin Castro from the Astros.

* (Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Ammons was going to the Mets. Joel Sherman of The New York Post added that Ammons and cash were being exchanged for Slaten.

Red Sox Interested In Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Michael A. Taylor, Martin Maldonado

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The Red Sox are considering a number of position player targets, including a pair of outfielders.  MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that the Sox are interested in Lourdes Gurriel Jr., KPRC’s Ari Alexander reports that Michael A. Taylor is another player of interest, and Boston is also looking at help behind the plate in Martin Maldonado, according to The Athletic’s Chandler Rome.  (All links to X).

Even after the trade of Alex Verdugo to the Yankees earlier tonight, the Red Sox technically still have a set starting outfield in Jarred Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu, with Masataka Yoshida available for part-time duty in left field when he isn’t a designated hitter, and utilitymen Rob Refsnyder and Pablo Reyes in the mix.  That said, the projected starting outfield doesn’t carry much MLB experience, making a veteran addition like Gurriel (for left field) or Taylor (for center) very sensible.

Gurriel will be the priciest of the group, as MLBTR predicted a four-year, $54MM contract for the 30-year-old while ranking Gurriel 14th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents.  Over his six Major League seasons with the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks, Gurriel has been a streaky but generally productive bat, hitting .279/.324/.446 for a career 113 wRC+ over 2456 plate appearances.  Settling in as a regular left fielder after some poor defensive showings as an infielder at the start of his career, Gurriel’s glovework has been somewhat mixed, yet public metrics were very impressed across the board with his fielding in 2023.  It could be that the move to Chase Field from Rogers Centre helped Gurriel’s defense, though dealing with the Green Monster in Fenway Park could be a trickier endeavor.

The Red Sox got a first-hand look at Gurriel during his days in Toronto, and Gurriel has a solid .811 OPS over 180 career PA at Fenway.  Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow also crossed paths with Gurriel on a personal level, as Breslow’s last pro season (2018) was spent in the Blue Jays organization when Gurriel spent time at Double-A and Triple-A before making his MLB debut that season.

Since defensive improvements are a stated goal of the Red Sox offseason, signing a former Gold Glover like Taylor would provide immediate help.  Taylor’s +5 Defensive Runs Saved, +8 Outs Above Average, and +4.3 UZR/150 over 960 1/3 center field innings with the Twins last season were actually down from some of his elite totals earlier in his career, yet obviously Taylor is still among the best defensive center fielders in the sport.  He added to that glovework with one of his better offensive seasons, hitting .220/.278/.442 with 21 home runs in 388 PA for Minnesota in 2023 for a 96 wRC+.

With Byron Buxton unable to play center field due to recurring knee problems, Taylor ended up being very valuable in solidifying Minnesota’s center field situation.  The same could be true in Boston, as having Taylor up the middle on even a part-time basis would allow Rafaela to perhaps contribute at second base — another known target area for the Red Sox this winter.

Taylor and Maldonado could come at much lower price tags than Gurriel, and could be had at one-year contracts despite quite a bit of interest in their service.  For instance, Maldonado has drawn interest from at least four other teams besides the Red Sox, though a reunion with the Astros now looks to be scuttled given Houston’s signing of Victor Caratini.

Though Maldonado has never contributed much as a hitter, his ability to handle pitchers and call games has been widely praised throughout his career.  This allowed Maldonado to continue getting regular at-bats in Houston, and his work with the Astros’ pitchers was seen as a major reason for their development and the peak that was the 2022 World Series title.  However, as Yainer Diaz started to break out as a catcher of the future, the Astros ultimately decided to move on from Maldonado, leaving the veteran in search of a new home.

Connor Wong and Reese McGuire already form a catching platoon, so there would seem to be less immediate opportunity for playing time in Boston than Maldonado might find on another team.  Signing Maldonado might open the door for the Sox to make a trade, as Kyle Teel could make his MLB debut in 2024 and is seen as Boston’s catcher of the future.  If Wong and McGuire are seen as shorter-term placeholders anyway, Maldonado could then become a veteran mentor to Teel as the top prospect gets acclimated to the majors.

Yankees Acquire Alex Verdugo

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The Yankees and Red Sox have lined up on a rare major trade. The teams announced a deal sending outfielder Alex Verdugo to the Bronx for reliever Greg Weissert and minor league pitchers Richard Fitts and Nicholas Judice.

Verdugo, who turns 28 in May, has spent the past four seasons in Boston. The Sox acquired him from the Dodgers as the key piece of the Mookie Betts trade return. The left-handed hitting outfielder never quite lived up to that lofty billing. Verdugo has settled in as a solid regular without emerging as an impact player on either side of the ball.

Over his time with the Red Sox, Verdugo hit .281/.338/.424 in a little more than 2000 plate appearances. His strongest season was the shortened 2020 campaign. After posting a .308/.367/.478 slash, he has hit at a league average level for three years running. Verdugo owns a .277/.334/.417 mark since the start of 2021. This past season’s .264/.324/.421 line over 602 plate appearances fit that recent body of work.

Verdugo doesn’t have prototypical home run power for a corner outfielder. He has hit between 11 and 13 longballs in each of the last three years. Verdugo has topped 30 doubles in each season, however. He has always had excellent bat-to-ball skills and generally shows an all-fields approach. Aside from a 15-game debut showing in 2017, he has hit .260 or better in every year of his big league career.

Bringing in a hit-over-power lefty bat seems a deliberate effort by the New York front office to add balance to the lineup. The Yankees have skewed right-handed and leaned heavily on power hitters in recent years. They’ve found themselves generally lacking in consistent offensive production beyond Aaron Judge and, to a lesser extent, Gleyber Torres.

Verdugo isn’t an impact lineup presence, but he checks a box which general manager Brian Cashman had identified as a priority. Cashman expressed a desire for two outfielders to join Judge, preferably ones who hit from the left side. Top center field prospect Jasson Domínguez will be out into the middle of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, while left field has been a significant problem for the past couple years. 22-year-old Everson Pereira might be a longer-term solution there but limped to a .151/.233/.194 line in his first month as a big leaguer.

The desire for multiple outfield additions still leaves the Yankees very much in play for bigger stars. New York has been tied to Juan Soto in trade rumors and Cody Bellinger on the free agent market. Various reporters (including Andy Martino of SNY) unsurprisingly relay that the Yankees are still involved on Soto. Talks between the Yankees and Padres reportedly slowed over the weekend after San Diego demanded a pitching-heavy return built around Michael King and prospect Drew Thorpe.

Verdugo won’t take them out of that mix (or presumably impact a run at Bellinger if they can’t line up on a Soto deal). However, it could require the Yankees to lean on Judge in center field for a season if they were to acquire Soto. Verdugo hasn’t played center field since 2021. He has generally received solid marks for his glove in right field. Verdugo has one of the game’s better arms, although his speed and overall range are closer to average.

The outfield alignment is to be determined based on future moves. Verdugo steps in a short-term acquisition who’ll solidify one position while buying time for Domínguez to rehab and Pereira to see more action in Triple-A. The veteran outfielder is a year away from free agency. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz forecasts him for a $9.2MM salary in his final season of arbitration.

That pushes the Yankees’ projected spending to roughly $246MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. Their luxury tax number sits right at the $257MM line that marks the second tier of penalization. Since they’re paying the CBT for what’d be a third consecutive season, the Yankees are taxed at a 50% rate on spending between $237MM and $257MM. That’ll push their overall tab on Verdugo into the $14MM range, while they’re sure to continue adding to the roster (with accompanying higher penalties beyond the $257MM mark).

On the other side of the equation, Boston offloads Verdugo’s salary projection. They’re moving on from a player who, while reasonably effective, had a somewhat disappointing overall run at Fenway Park. In addition to the leveling off in his performance, Verdugo occasionally came under fire with the organization for perceived effort questions.

Beyond that, it’s not uncommon for an incoming baseball operations leader to reshape a roster. This is the first significant trade of Craig Breslow’s tenure as chief baseball officer. It leaves a vacancy in right field, where the Sox seem likely to look to free agency or the trade market. Boston has left-handed hitting Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and Masataka Yoshida in the outfield mix, so the pursuit of a righty bat might make the most sense.

They’ll also add controllable pitching help, with Weissert standing as the most immediate upgrade. The 28-year-old righty has pitched at the MLB level in each of the past two seasons. Weissert has worked 31 1/3 innings, allowing a 4.60 ERA. His underlying numbers are more intriguing. The Fordham product has averaged around 94 MPH on his sinker and four-seam fastball. He has struck out a solid 24.4% of batters faced while keeping the ball on the ground at a 47.3% clip.

Weissert also had an excellent year in Triple-A in 2023. Over 40 1/3 frames, he pitched to a 2.90 ERA while punching out more than 34% of batters faced. Control has been an issue throughout his career, but Weissert has consistently shown the ability to miss bats in the minors. He still has two option years remaining and won’t reach arbitration for three seasons, making him an affordable and flexible bullpen piece.

Fitts, who turns 24 in a few weeks, is the more intriguing of the minor leaguers involved. An Auburn product, he was drafted in the sixth round in 2021. The 6’3″ righty had an impressive year at Double-A Somerset, working to a 3.48 ERA across 152 2/3 innings. He punched out nearly 26% of batters faced against a tidy 6.8% walk percentage. Prospect evaluators praise Fitts’s slider and overall command, projecting him as a potential back-end starter. Boston doesn’t need to add him to the 40-man roster until next offseason to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft, but it’s possible he pitches his way into the MLB rotation mix at some point during the summer.

Judice was an eighth-round pick this year out of UL-Monroe. The 6’8″ hurler had posted a 3.74 ERA over 53 innings in his draft year. BA’s draft report praised his potential plus slider and mid-90s velocity. Judice projects as a reliever and is a low minors development flier.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the trade terms. Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Likelier To Acquire Second Base Help Via Trade

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The Red Sox have been focused on pitching help first and foremost this offseason, yet that isn’t the team’s only target area.  Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow told reporters (including MLB.com’s Ian Browne) that the Sox are looking at second basemen on both the trade and free agent markets, though a new infielder is likeliest to come via trade.  Breslow implied that the Red Sox would first like to address their pitching needs, so it may be some time yet before a second-base answer comes into focus.

A whopping 11 players saw at least a little time at second base for the 2023 Red Sox, but this revolving door combined for 0.0 bWAR, as only three teams got less production from their second basemen.  Enmanuel Valdez, Pablo Reyes, Bobby Dalbec, or (when he isn’t in center field) Ceddanne Rafaela all look like the top internal candidates for the keystone heading into the offseason, but Boston would clearly like to better solidify the position.  With a somewhat thin free agent class of midfielders available, it isn’t surprising that Breslow would prefer to bring in a higher-caliber upgrade in trade talks.

Mets, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Royals Interested In Lucas Giolito

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Free agent right-hander Lucas Giolito is getting a lot of attention, with Jon Morosi of MLB.com reporting that the Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, and Royals are interested in him. The interest from the Dodgers was already reported but the four other clubs are new mentions.

Giolito, 29, is one of the hardest free agents to value. From 2019 to 2021, he made 72 starts and tossed 427 2/3 innings with a 3.47 earned run average. He struck out 30.7% of batters faced in that time while walking just 8%. His 11.3 wins above replacement in that stretch, per FanGraphs, was seventh among all pitchers in the league.

Things took a bit of a downturn in 2022, at least in terms of results. His ERA jumped to 4.90 and his strikeouts dropped a bit, though his 25.4% rate was still above league average. His .340 batting average on balls in play that year stands out as a clear outlier, as he’s never had that figure finish higher than .274 in any other season. His 4.06 FIP and 3.79 SIERA both suggested he was actually more in line with his previous track record than the ERA would indicate.

He seemed to be back on track in the first half of 2023, making 21 starts for the White Sox with a 3.79 ERA. But things went downhill for him after he was traded to the Angels prior to the deadline. He took the ball six times for the Halos, posting an ERA of 6.89 in those. As that club fell out of contention, he was put on waivers and claimed by the Guardians. Six more starts with that club yielded an even worse ERA of 7.04. His walk rate jumped to 10.8% in the 12 starts after being traded and he also allowed 20 home runs in just 63 1/3 innings.

That poor stretch of play represents such a small sample in a career that now includes over 1,000 big leagues innings, but was unfortunately timed right before his first trip to free agency. MLBTR predicted he would get a two-year, $44MM with an opt-out that lets him potentially return to free agency with a stronger platform.

Each of the four clubs now connected to him are sensible fits since they each are known to need pitching. The Diamondbacks have Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly in two rotation spots with Brandon Pfaadt likely to be somewhere behind them, but there’s not much certainty beyond that. General manager Mike Hazen has been open about the club’s desire to upgrade the rotation this offseason.

The Mets have added Luis Severino to a rotation that also features Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana, but there are question marks for the back end and even Severino is no guarantee after his poor 2023 campaign.

The Red Sox have plenty of options but none of them concrete. Chris Sale should be in one spot but he hasn’t reached 105 innings pitched in a season since 2019 due to various injuries. Brayan Bello had a decent 2023 season overall but faded later in the year with a 5.49 ERA in the second half. Each of Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Kutter Crawford have oscillated between the rotation and bullpen without permanently cementing a spot. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said at the Winter Meetings that the club would be “aggressive” in pursuing upgrades.

The Royals have plenty of questions in their rotation. Cole Ragans had a strong finish after coming over in the Aroldis Chapman trade but Brady Singer and Jordan Lyles each had disappointing seasons. General manager J.J. Picollo said this week that the club has about $30MM to spend and adding a starter is one thing on their to-do list. Signing someone like Giolito would likely eat up a decent chunk of that budget and leave little for bullpen upgrades, but it’s at least feasible that they could dedicate more of their resources to the rotation.

Red Sox “Stepping Up Efforts” In Pursuit Of Seth Lugo

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Dec. 5: The Red Sox are “stepping up [their] efforts” to bring Lugo to Boston, reports Heyman, who notes that the Braves are among the four to five other clubs still in the mix for the righty. Cotillo tweets the Red Sox are “expected” to make a formal offer to Lugo soon, if they haven’t already.

Dec. 4: Seth Lugo is a popular target in the middle tiers of free agency. The Tigers (prior to signing Kenta Maeda) and Dodgers have been publicly tied to the right-hander, who has reportedly drawn interest from upwards of half the league.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds a few more clubs to the mix, reporting that the Braves are among the teams showing interest. Heyman adds the Reds, Red Sox and Diamondbacks have also been involved this offseason — although it’s not specified whether Cincinnati’s interest predated their two-year contract with Lugo’s former San Diego teammate Nick Martinez.

The newly revealed suitors on Lugo are all sensible. Each has found themselves in the market for starting pitching. The Braves made a run at Aaron Nola before he returned to the Phillies. They subsequently signed Reynaldo López, whom they’re considering stretching back to rotation work. Atlanta also acquired Marco Gonzales in last night’s trade with the Mariners but reportedly plan to flip the southpaw elsewhere.

Boston has been in the market for multiple starting pitchers. They’re involved on top-of-the-market options like Jordan Montgomery and Yoshinobu Yamamoto but are surely identifying targets at various tiers of free agency. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow reiterated this afternoon that the rotation was the Sox’s top priority (relayed by Chris Cotillo of MassLive).

The D-Backs have made no secret of their desire for a mid-rotation starter to step in behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly and alongside Brandon Pfaadt. Arizona general manager Mike Hazen suggested this evening that acquisition was likelier to come via free agency than trade, although he unsurprisingly indicated they’re exploring both avenues (link via Steve Gilbert of MLB.com).

Cincinnati added Martinez last week, bringing in the veteran righty to join an otherwise young starting staff. There’s still room for more innings considering the injury history and/or limited MLB track records of players like Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson. The Reds have also left open the possibility of keeping Martinez in a swing/multi-inning relief role, although it’d be an odd decision to guarantee him $13MM annually over two seasons if they didn’t anticipate him earning a spot in the rotation.

Lugo, entering his age-34 campaign, is reportedly seeking a three-year deal. He has a strong case for one on the heels of a 3.57 ERA over 26 starts for the Padres.

Astros, Rangers, Red Sox, Angels Among Teams Interested In Jordan Hicks

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December 5: The Angels and Red Sox have also checked in on Hicks, per Ari Alexander of KPRC 2. Both clubs could use some bullpen reinforcements, with Boston relievers having posted a collective 4.32 ERA in 2023 while the Angels were at 4.88.

December 4: The Astros, Rangers, Cardinals and Orioles are among the teams with interest in right-hander Jordan Hicks this offseason, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Cardinals and Orioles having interest is no surprise since they had previously been linked to the 27-year-old earlier in the offseason. The connections to the Rangers and Astros, however, are new.

The Rangers make plenty of sense as a potential fit for Hicks. The reigning World Series champions got excellent results out of their offense and starting pitching in 2023, but faced significant struggles in the bullpen. The club’s relief corps combined for a 4.77 ERA that was bottom-seven in the majors, while the group’s 4.45 FIP and 2.6 fWAR were also bottom-ten figures. The Twins, Diamondbacks, and Marlins were the only other playoff teams to feature a bottom-ten bullpen in even one of those three categories, and no club besides the Rangers appeared in the bottom of those leaderboards more than once.

That acute need for bullpen additions has led the Rangers to be frequently connected to top-of-the-market closer Josh Hader, who posted a sensational season in 2023 with a 1.28 ERA and a 36.8% strikeout rate while picking up 33 saves in 56 1/3 innings of work with the Padres. That being said, Hader has a chance to land a record-breaking contract in free agency this offseason, with MLBTR projecting the lefty for a six-year, $110MM contract on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, on which he ranks eighth overall. Coming off a World Series championship in 2023 and a pair of offseasons where they were among the league’s biggest spenders, it’s possible that sort of contract won’t be a problem for Texas.

That being said, GM Chris Young recently cautioned that the club doesn’t expect to spend quite as lavishly this offseason as they have the past two winters. If the Rangers do find that Hader is out of their price range, Hicks could represent a more affordable alternative who has still flashed elite upside as a late-inning arm. Hicks, who was the second-highest rated reliever (#21 overall) on MLBTR’s list with a projected price tag of four years and $40MM, boasts a triple-digit fastball with sinking action that allows him to post groundball rates near 60% on a yearly basis.

While control and injury issues have dogged Hicks throughout his career, the righty is still three seasons away from his 30th birthday and impressed this season with a career-high 28.4% strikeout rate. While his 3.29 ERA hardly jumps off the page for a back-end relief arm, it’s worth noting that Hicks’ season numbers are skewed by a brutal early-season performance where he surrendered nine runs (eight earned) in just 5 2/3 innings across seven appearances. After that point, Hicks boasted a sterling 2.40 ERA and 2.59 FIP with a 30% strikeout rate against a 9.6% walk rate in his final 60 innings of work. While its not reasonable to simply ignore a rocky start to the season entirely, Hicks’s strong performance after the first two weeks of his season does highlight the tantalizing upside the right-hander has flashed throughout his career.

The Astros, on the other hand, are a somewhat less obvious suitor. Veteran righty Ryan Pressly is entrenched as the club’s closer, while young hurler Bryan Abreu has emerged as one of the best young relief arms in the league with a 1.84 ERA and 2.59 FIP across the past two seasons. That duo led the Astros’ relief corps to a sterling 3.56 ERA in 2023, the sixth-best figure in the league. Houston’s bullpen sports similarly strong advanced metrics, as only six clubs posted a better collective SIERA than the Astros’ 3.79 figure.

Good as the club’s relief corps was in 2023, however, it’s important to note that the Astros have since lost key pieces such as Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek, and Phil Maton to free agency. While Pressly and Abreu certainly make for a strong back-end duo, Houston looking to replace those outgoing arms is hardly a surprise, and few options available figure to be better than Hicks. While the Astros clearly need additional relief arms to supplement the roster, it’s fair to wonder if Hicks is the most realistic target for the club from a financial perspective. GM Dana Brown cautioned earlier in the offseason that the club doesn’t have “a ton” of financial flexibility to work with this winter while telling reporters he’s “not interested in overpaying” for bullpen arms.

Given the club’s limited financial flexibility, it would register as something of a surprise for the Astros to commit a hefty sum to a single reliever given their other needs. The Astros are known to be in the market for a backup catcher in addition to bullpen, to say nothing of the possibility they look to add a left-handed bat to replace Michael Brantley or shore up a starting rotation lacking in certainty behind Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez. While it’s impossible to deny that the addition of Hicks to a bullpen that already features Abreu and Pressly could create a three-headed monster that few teams could replicate, it’s fair as a wonder if a cheaper option could be more feasible for Houston from a financial perspective. One such option could be a reunion with Hector Neris, who The Athletic’s Chandler Rome relayed this evening Brown has been in contact with. MLBTR ranked Neris, who posted a 1.71 ERA and 3.83 FIP in 68 1/3 innings for the Astros last year, as the offseason’s #46 free agent while projecting him for a two-year, $15MM deal.

Breslow: Red Sox Will Be “Aggressive” In Search For Rotation Upgrades

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New Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has a tall task ahead of him, trying to bring a fifth-place club back into contention in a stacked AL East. Perhaps the hardest part of his job will be improving a starting rotation that finished with a bottom-ten ERA and FanGraphs WAR last season. Indeed, while the Red Sox have starting pitching depth, their rotation has too many question marks and not enough top-end talent.

Chris Sale is a lock for the 2024 rotation. So is 24-year-old Brayan Bello, who pitched to a 4.24 ERA in 28 starts last year. After that, the Red Sox have four more experienced arms who will stretch out to start this winter but could move into a bullpen role at any time: Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Garrett Whitlock. All four have made at least ten starts and at least ten relief appearances over the past two years. With a rotation led by an aging, oft-injured veteran followed by a still-developing young starter and four guys who have bounced in and out of bullpen roles the past years, it’s clear the Red Sox could use a lot more stability and at least one front-line pitcher.

It’s not surprising to hear Breslow call rotation upgrades his top priority as the Red Sox navigate the offseason (links via Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam of MassLive.com). Breslow expressed optimism about Sale’s health, at least publicly voicing confidence that the lefty could hold up over a full, healthy season in 2024. Of course, that’s quite a charitable outlook for a pitcher who’s totaled just 151 innings over the past four seasons.

Granted, 102 2/3 of those frames came in 2023, when Sale worked to a respectable 4.30 ERA with excellent strikeout and walk rates of 29.4% and 6.8%, respectively. But Sale still missed two months last summer with a shoulder injury, and in the three seasons prior he underwent Tommy John surgery, suffered a stress fracture in his ribcage, broke his wrist in bicycling accident and sustained a broken a pinkie finger on his pitching hand upon being struck by a comeback liner. The Sox don’t have much choice but to hope Sale is healthy this year — he’s entering the final season of his five-year, $145MM contract — but recent history is not on their side, regardless of whatever optimism the team’s brass wants to forecast.

Even if the Sox were able to somehow manifest a 32-start season from Sale, there’d be need to further solidify the group. For his part, Breslow pledged to be “as aggressive as we possibly can” to fill the rotation (link via Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic), be it via free agency or trade. Boston has already been linked to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery and Seth Lugo in free agency. McCaffrey indicates that the Sox had an initial Zoom meeting with Yamamoto’s camp (as has been standard for interested teams thus far) but adds that a team official declined to state whether the Red Sox were in position for a forthcoming in-person sitdown with the NPB ace.

Breslow’s pledge to be as aggressive as possible is sensible for a team with a projected payroll ($172MM, per Roster Resource) that’s more than $10MM shy of their end-of-season levels and a whopping $64MM short of their franchise-record Opening Day mark of $236MM. That said, it’s also somewhat at odds with prior reporting on Boston’s rotation search. McAdam reported last month that the Sox have a preference for the trade market before free agency, notably specifying that at that point, they had not yet been active in the market for Dylan Cease.

The previously mentioned piece from McCaffrey quotes Breslow in acknowledging that the Sox will have to “be willing to give up position player capital” in order to bolster the starting staff, though McCaffrey notes that the Sox aren’t likely to trade top-end prospects for pitchers with only one year of club control remaining. That’ll make names like Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber and division foe Tyler Glasnow particularly difficult to obtain. And just yesterday, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported that Boston prefers to avoid free agents who’ve rejected a qualifying offer.

There’s room to be aggressive within a fairly measured set of free-agent and trade targets, but whether avoiding qualified free agents and one-year rentals is truly acting “as aggressive as we possibly can” is up for debate, at the very least. It’s understandable that Breslow, particularly in his first season on the job, might not want to recklessly spend and saddle the club with a long-term contract or deplete the farm system he’s still learning, but imposing those limitations on his front office only makes the goal of bettering the starting staff in a meaningful way all the more daunting.

Of course, the goal in the long term is to better the organization’s ability to develop its own pitchers. To that end, the Red Sox announced yesterday that they’ve hired Twins minor league pitching coordinator Justin Willard as their new director of pitching.

“We’re really excited to bring him on board,” Breslow said (relayed by Cotillo). “Someone that comes with a pretty strong track record of pitching development. We’ve been mindful of what Minnesota’s done over the last few years in the development of some of their guys. We feel really lucky, really fortunate.”

The Twins have had some success stories with late-round starters, as both Bailey Ober and Louie Varland have reached the Majors and held their own (a good bit more than that in the case of Ober, a 12th-rounder). The Twins’ bullpen has seen multiple names emerge from within the system as well, headlined by closer Jhoan Duran and setup man Griffin Jax.

Willard will join newly hired pitching coach Andrew Bailey in working with Breslow and the rest of the Boston baseball ops and player development staff to hopefully optimize the Sox’ pitching development systems. While each of Bello, Houck and Crawford has had some big league success, they’re all still relatively inexperienced. The Red Sox have regularly relied on free agency and the trade market to round out the pitching staff over the past decade, but they’ve struggled to supplement those high-profile additions (e.g. Sale, Rick Porcello, David Price, Nathan Eovaldi) with cost-effective arms produced by their own system.

Red Sox Reportedly Prefer Not To Sign Qualified Free Agents

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The Red Sox are known to be interested in adding to the front of their rotation this winter, though Alex Speier of the Boston Globe suggests that desire could come with a major caveat. Speier relays that the club prefers to avoid signing a player attached to a Qualifying Offer. President of baseball operations Craig Breslow neither confirmed nor denied that preference when asked about it by reporters, acknowledging that while there are instances where a player being attached to draft pick compensation “shouldn’t be an impediment or deterrent,” there are also other situations where a QO could be an obstacle.

Of course, such a preference wouldn’t completely shut the door on a top-of-the-market arm for the Red Sox. Left-hander Jordan Montgomery isn’t attached to draft pick compensation after being dealt from the Cardinals to the Rangers midseason, while posted NPB stars Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga are both free of a qualifying offer as well. With both Sonny Gray and Aaron Nola already having signed long-term deals this offseason, a preference to avoid signing qualified free agents for their rotation would really only take Boston out of the running for left-hander Blake Snell, who rejected a QO from the Padres earlier this offseason. While the Red Sox have also reportedly been connected to two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani this offseason, previous reporting indicates that the club is no longer pursuing the offseason’s top free agent.

Rangers, Mets, Red Sox Reportedly Shift Focus Away From Pursuit Of Shohei Ohtani

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Rumors about the state of Shohei Ohtani’s market in free agency have been decidedly and deliberately scarce. Ohtani is said to prefer things to be kept quiet and close to the vest, and teams involved in the bidding surely don’t want to jeopardize their chances by being too forthcoming in terms of leaking information to the media. ESPN’s Jeff Passan pulls back the curtain a bit this morning, however, writing that at least three teams — the Rangers, Mets and Red Sox — have turned their attention to other players at this stage of the process. While each of the three were among Ohtani’s original group of suitors, it seems the trio has become pessimistic about their chances of closing a deal.

The Rangers’ ostensible exit from the Ohtani bidding dovetails with recent comments from general manager Chris Young, who just yesterday told reporters that he does not anticipate spending to the same extent he did in the past two offseasons. Texas dropped more than $500MM in the 2021-22 offseason when signing Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray. The Rangers spent more than $200MM last winter when adding Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney. Whether the expectation for lesser spending is because they feel they’re out of the Ohtani bidding or vice versa, the end result seems to be an expectation and concession that the two-time AL MVP and longtime Rangers division rival will sign elsewhere.

As for the Mets, there was never any question whether they have the funds to pay Ohtani a contract that’s widely expected to eclipse $500MM by a comfortable margin. Owner Steve Cohen is the sport’s wealthiest and most aggressive owner. But there have long been questions about Ohtani’s desire to play in the New York spotlight and deal with the inherent media frenzy associated with that market. It should come as no surprise that the Mets (and likely the Yankees) nevertheless tried, but Passan’s report suggests those efforts have come up short. To that end, SNY’s Andy Martino reports that Ohtani’s countryman, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, is currently the Mets’ primary focus.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, are known to be seeking top-of-the-rotation help for the 2024 season, which doesn’t apply to Ohtani while he mends from elbow surgery. (Though he’d clearly be a factor in their 2025 rotation and beyond.) Prior reports have suggested that Boston’s focus, thus far, has been more on the trade market than on free agency. That doesn’t definitively mean that the Sox aren’t willing to spend lavishly on free agents this winter, but if their pursuit of immediate rotation help eventually leads them to free agency, it’d make for a particularly expensive offseason to pursue both Ohtani and one of the remaining top-end starters (e.g. Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery).

While those three clubs are out of the mix, Ohtani’s market does still include the likes of the Dodgers, Cubs, Blue Jays and Angels, per Passan. That’s not intended to be a comprehensive list of the remaining suitors, however. It stands to reason that other clubs could yet be in play. The Giants have long been linked to Ohtani, as have the Mariners — although Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reported a couple weeks ago suggested that the Mariners were unlikely to ultimately land him.

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