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Poll: Should The Red Sox Trade Kenley Jansen?

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The payroll has become a topic of conversation for the Red Sox. Despite chairman Tom Werner’s “full throttle” comments earlier in the offseason, CEO Sam Kennedy recently admitted that this year’s payroll will probably be lower than last year’s. It was reported last month by Chris Cotillo of MassLive that the club could look to shed some more payroll in order to improve their ability to pursue their free agent targets.

Per Roster Resource, the club’s payroll currently sits at $178MM. It hasn’t been that low in a full season since 2014, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but it seems the pursestrings are getting tight nonetheless. The club has been connected to some big name free agents that are still available, such as Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, but perhaps they need to free up a bit of cash before they can earnestly pursue any of those. More affordable options would include Mike Clevinger, Michael Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu and others.

Cotillo’s report identifies Kenley Jansen as a possible candidate for such a salary-clearing deal, which is a logical fit. He signed a two-year, $32MM deal with the Sox last offseason, with even salaries of $16MM in each campaign. His first season in Boston was solid, though not spectacular. He recorded 29 saves in 33 chances, posting an earned run average of 3.63 on the year. His 27.7% strikeout rate was above league average but the lowest single-season mark in his career. The club has reportedly received trade interest in him.

With the Chris Sale deal, the club flipped the soon-to-be-35-year-old for a younger second baseman in Vaughn Grissom while effectively replacing Sale by signing Lucas Giolito. Perhaps the club is thinking of a similar path with the bullpen, as they have been connected to relievers like Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson, though those two have now signed with other clubs. With Jansen now 36 years old, they could perhaps exchange him for whatever the market will bear, then pivot to a younger arm to bolster the relief corps.

They could also consider replacing him internally with someone like Chris Martin, though there would also be some logic to consider trading him as well. He was signed to a two-year, $17.5MM deal last offseason, with $9MM of that still to be paid out. Per the Associated Press, he’ll make a $7.5MM salary this year and a $1.5MM payment of his $4MM signing bonus is scheduled for June.

Martin, 38 in June, is coming off a dominant season in a setup role. He posted an ERA of 1.05 in 55 appearances, racking up 23 holds in the process. He struck out 23.1% of opponents, walked just 4% of them and got grounders at a 51% clip. Martin’s never really been a closer in the majors, with just 12 career saves, though he did have a 21-save season while pitching in Japan in 2016.

Similar to the logic with Sale and Jansen, perhaps the club would consider making Martin available on the trade market and then replacing him with a younger free agent. Or perhaps they would like to trade one, keep one in the closer’s role and use the saved money to further address their rotation.

The relief pitching market has recently started to move, with many dominoes falling of late. In addition to Hicks and Stephenson, Josh Hader, Aroldis Chapman and Matt Moore have come off the board in the past little bit. That leaves David Robertson, Ryan Brasier, Phil Maton, Héctor Neris, Adam Ottavino, Wandy Peralta and Brad Hand as some of the best bullpen options still available. With the market getting thinner, perhaps the Sox can flip Jansen and/or Martin, then use the money saved to address their rotation.

Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently identified the club’s rotation locks as Giolito, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and Nick Pivetta, with Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck, Josh Winckowski, Cooper Criswell and Max Castillo among the options for the back end and depth jobs.

What do you think? Should the Sox subtract from the bullpen in order to upgrade the club in other ways? If so, who should they move? Have your say in the poll below!

Adrián Beltré, Joe Mauer, Todd Helton Elected To Baseball Hall Of Fame

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The Hall of Fame announced this evening that Adrián Beltré, Joe Mauer and Todd Helton have been elected by the Baseball Writers Association of America. They will be elected alongside Jim Leyland, who was selected by the Era Committee last month.

Beltré received 95.1% of the vote, Helton 79.7% and Mauer 76.1%. Billy Wagner got 73.8%, just shy of the 75% threshold. This was his ninth year on the ballot, meaning next year will be his last. Gary Sheffield received 63.9% of the vote in his 10th year on the ballot and will therefore not be present on next year’s. The full results can be found at this link from the BBWAA.

Beltré was an international signing of the Dodgers out of the Dominican Republic. He debuted in the majors in 1998 when still just 19 years old. Though it took him some time to realize his full potential, he would eventually go on to have an incredible career in just about every respect.

He eventually played in parts of 21 seasons with the Dodgers, Mariners, Red Sox and Rangers. In 2,933 career games, he had 3,166 hits, which included 636 doubles, 38 triples and 477 home runs. He was also considered to be an excellent third baseman, tallying 200 Defensive Runs Saved even though that metric didn’t exist for the first few years of his career. He also stole 121 bases over the years.

Due to the combination of his offense, defense and longevity, he produced 83.8 wins above replacement in eyes of FanGraphs while Baseball Reference has him a 93.5. He was on four All-Star teams, won five Gold Glove awards and four Silver Slugger Awards. This was his first year on the ballot.

Mauer’s career exploits were many, but there was also a poetic connective tissue in that he was so specifically tied to one franchise. Born and raised in Saint Paul, Minnesota, he entered the 2001 Major League Baseball draft and the Twins used the first overall pick to select him.

He would go on to play his entire career for the Twins, which lasted from his 2004 debut through the 2018 season. He played in 1,858 games, with injuries reducing his playing time and eventually moving him from catcher to first base. But he still managed to notch 2,123 hits and finish his career with a .306 batting average.

Of the seven batting titles won by catchers, Mauer has three of them. That included his 2009 season, wherein he hit .365 and won Most Valuable Player in the American League. He finished his career with 53 fWAR and 55.2 bWAR. He was selected to six All-Star teams, won three Gold Glove awards and five Silver Slugger Awards. This was his first year on the ballot.

Todd Helton

Helton also spent his entire career with one organization, having been drafted eighth overall by the Rockies in 1995. He would make his major league debut in 1997 and stick with the Rockies through 2013.

In his 2,247 games, he tallied 2,519 hits, including 1,521 doubles and 369 home runs. In 2000, he hit .372 with 40 home runs, then followed that up by hitting 49 homers with a .336 batting average the year after. He made five All-Star teams, won three Gold Glove awards and five Silver Sluggers. He has career tallies of 54.9 fWAR and 61.8 bWAR. This was his sixth year on the ballot.

Per the BBWAA, this was the 10th time they elected three players, the last being when Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines and Iván Rodríguez were elected in 2017.

Latest On The Red Sox Pitching Search

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In signing Lucas Giolito and (surprisingly) trading Chris Sale, the Red Sox haven’t done a lot to upgrade a rotation that struggled in 2023.  Within the last week, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow stated that it has “been a challenge” in finding additional pitching, while club president Sam Kennedy seemed to downplay the idea of a big free agent splash by saying that the team’s payroll “probably will be lower than it was in 2023.”

Breslow did state that the Sox were continuing to look at free agent and trade possibilities, and it appears as though the club hasn’t given up on the idea of still landing a bigger name.  According to Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe (X links), the Red Sox are “still in contact with the top remaining free-agent starters.”  Reporter Marino Pepen is more specific, writing (Spanish language link) that the club has been continually talking with left-hander Jordan Montgomery.

There is no sense that a deal with Montgomery or anyone is particularly close, or necessarily even a realistic option.  Abraham wondered whether any pursuits of frontline pitching were “serious or not,” or if the team’s explorations could be “just posing so they can claim they tried” in the wake of growing angst in Red Sox Nation.

MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents still has 19 unsigned names.  Blake Snell (ranked 4th), Montgomery (6th), Mike Clevinger (30th), and Michael Lorenzen (34th) are the only clear-cut starting pitchers of that 19-player field, with Jakob Junis (47th) perhaps more of a swingman candidate though he has a lot of starting experience in the past.  It is fair to cite Snell and Montgomery as the true front-of-the-rotation types remaining, as landing Clevinger, Lorenzen, or Junis might help Boston’s staff, but perhaps not move the needle much in terms of quieting fan discord.

Breslow is naturally only under an obligation to make the team better, not to acquire only marquee talent.  However, the CBO is already facing a lot of heat in his first few months on the job given how the Red Sox are coming off a pair of last-place finishes in the AL East, and because team chairman Tom Werner raised expectations with his now-infamous “full throttle” comments about Boston’s winter plans.

Terms like “in contact with,” or “checking in on,” or “showing interest in” are commonplace during hot stove season, and this lingo can represent anything from due diligence texts to an agent or a more serious push to close a deal.  It is common for executives to keep in touch with agents about any number of available players, usually in the form of some contact early in the offseason to establish particular interest in a target or two, and then the two sides can circle back multiple times over the coming weeks or months as markets develop.

To this end, it isn’t surprising that the Sox are still testing the waters on the top pitchers, since there’s no downside in such explorations while the players are still unsigned.  As Abraham notes, the Red Sox “could be hoping prices drop and somebody like Montgomery makes sense” within what might be a somewhat limited 2024 budget, yet if this situation ends up being the case for Montgomery or Snell, it is far from automatic that Boston would necessarily be the first choice for a pitcher willing to accept a reduced deal.  

Montgomery has been linked to the Red Sox for over two months now, with some suggestion that Montgomery is the team’s preference over Snell.  Unlike Snell, Montgomery doesn’t come attached to qualifying offer compensation, and Montgomery has a steadier and more durable track record even if Snell’s peaks (i.e. two Cy Young Award-winning seasons) are higher.

Montgomery and his wife McKenzie also have a personal connection to Boston, as McKenzie is currently on a dermatology residency at a local hospital.  These family ties have led to speculation that Montgomery might therefore be more open to favoring Boston as a landing spot, though that obviously doesn’t mean Montgomery would leave tens of millions on the table to give the Red Sox any kind of discount.  MLBTR’s Nick Deeds explored Montgomery’s market in a reader poll earlier today, and given the number of known suitors — the Rangers, Giants, Yankees, and Angels — and possible mystery teams still on the periphery, there isn’t any indication that Montgomery and his representatives are yet willing to lower their demands.

Only the Red Sox (and the players’ agents) know how realistic Boston’s chances might be of actually landing a notable free agent, so a trade might be the more realistic route towards adding pitching help.  Trades have been Breslow’s preferred method of transaction thus far in his brief tenure as chief baseball officer, as the Sox have already brought in Tyler O’Neill and Vaughn Grissom in swaps while dealing away Sale, Alex Verdugo, and Luis Urias.  Giolito’s two-year contract and Cooper Criswell’s one-year, $1MM pact are thus far the only Major League signings of the Breslow era.

Cooper Criswell Preparing As Starter Ahead Of Spring Training

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  • The Red Sox and right-hander Cooper Criswell agreed to a big league deal earlier this winter, and MassLive’s Christopher Smith recently relayed additional information regarding the club’s plans for the 27-year-old hurler. As noted by Smith, Criswell recently told reporters that club brass have instructed him to come to camp ready to start. That would seem to indicate that Criswell could join the likes of Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Josh Winckowski in a camp battle for the fifth starter job in Boston this spring, though Criswell was careful to note that building up as a starter during the offseason can be beneficial even if he’s eventually moved to a relief role. Criswell pitched in a bulk relief role with the Rays last year, posting a 5.73 ERA in 33 innings of work across ten appearances at the big league level.

Red Sox Notes: Rotation, Cora, Ownership, Boddy

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Upgrading the Red Sox rotation has been a well-established goal for the club this winter, but they’ve achieved little on that front beyond swapping out Chris Sale for Lucas Giolito to this point despite pursuits of players such as Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga this winter. While chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has indicated that the club remains “engaged” in the market for starting pitching, club CEO Sam Kennedy recently cast some doubt on the possibility of the club making a significant addition by noting that the club is unlikely to match its 2023 payroll in 2024.

With that being said, at least one member of the Red Sox pitching apparatus feels confident about the club’s internal options headed into the season. In a conversation with Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, newly-minted pitching coach Andrew Bailey disputed the notion that the club needs to add another starting pitcher to its rotation mix while adding that he feels the group, which consists of Giolito, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and Nick Pivetta with the likes of Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock in competition for the fifth spot, has the talent to succeed. That group of pitchers combined for a 4.51 ERA in 791 innings of work last year.

Bailey’s optimism regarding the club’s internal options for the rotation is fortunate as its unclear whether the club will be successful in adding another arm to the rotation this offseason. According to RosterResource, the club’s current projected payroll is just $21MM below its 2023 level, likely leaving room for little more than a lower-level acquisition such as Mike Clevinger, Hyun-Jin Ryu, or perhaps a reunion with James Paxton. More significant additions such as a deal for Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell would surely require the club to move an existing salary such as that of closer Kenley Jansen, particularly the club’s continuing pursuit of a right-handed hitter such as Adam Duvall.

More notes from Boston…

  • While manager Alex Cora is entering the final year of his contract in 2024, the 48-year-old skipper recently told reporters (including MassLive’s Chris Cotillo) that he has yet to have any significant discussions with the club regarding his future, though he added that he’d be “very selfish” to focus on that and take his attention away from the upcoming season. Cora has previously indicated that he would like to move upstairs to a front office role at some point, though it’s worth noting that he added that he’s “not ready” to make that jump at this point in his career. If he remains in the dugout following the 2024 season, whether at Fenway or elsewhere, he’ll do so as one of the league’s most well-respected managers with a record of 440-370 through five seasons at the helm in Boston.
  • One piece of the Red Sox management puzzle that seems unlikely to change any time soon is ownership. As noted by Christopher Smith of MassLive, club chairman Tom Werner recently spoke to reporters about the ownership group’s plans to remain in Boston long-term. Werner noted that the Red Sox are the “cornerstone” of Fenway Sports Group, the club’s parent company that also owns other major sports teams such as Liverpool F.C. and the Pittsburgh Penguins. Werner added that ownership hopes to remain at the helm in Boston “for a couple more decades at least.”
  • The Red Sox made a significant hire for their front office earlier this week as The Athletic’s Eno Sarris reports that pitching guru Kyle Boddy has joined the club as a special advisor to Breslow. Boddy is best known as the founder of Driveline Baseball, a data-driven independent player development facility. Aside from his work at Driveline, Boddy also served as the Reds’ pitching director from October 2019 to September 2021. This offseason has seen the Red Sox focus heavily on hires with backgrounds in pitching development, with both Breslow and Bailey joining the club’s ranks in addition to Boddy over the past few months.

Red Sox, Angels Possible Finalists For Adam Duvall?

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  • The Red Sox and Angels have been the only two teams publicly linked to Adam Duvall this winter, and the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes that Duvall will “likely” wind up with one of those clubs barring a late bid from a new suitor. Duvall hit .247/.303/.531 with 21 homers over 353 plate appearances with the Sox last season, and his right-handed bat could serve as a nice complement to the lefty-swingers (i.e. Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida) that comprise much of Boston’s outfield mix.  Then again, Duvall could find more playing time in Los Angeles, given Mike Trout’s injury history and the lack of a consistent MLB track record for either Mickey Moniak or even Taylor Ward in the Angels’ outfield.

Kennedy: Red Sox Not Likely To Match Last Year’s Payroll

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Red Sox brass convened with fans and media at their annual Winter Weekend festivities. CEO Sam Kennedy chatted with reporters shortly before the event this evening.

Most notably, Kennedy said the club’s 2024 payroll “probably will be lower than it was in 2023” (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive). While he indicated that wasn’t a guarantee, it’s the latest signal from Boston officials that they’re not anticipating another major strike this offseason. Chairman Tom Werner hinted similarly earlier in the week when he backtracked on his early-offseason proclamation the team would go “full throttle” this winter.

From a raw payroll perspective, Boston’s projected salary isn’t far off last year’s Opening Day mark. Roster Resource projects the club’s player spending around $178MM. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Sox started last year with a payroll narrowly above $181MM. However, there’s a notable gap between the team’s luxury tax numbers. Roster Resource forecasts the Sox for a CBT figure in the $198MM range this year; Cot’s had their tax number approaching $226MM a season ago.

That’s not a huge distinction, as both are below the base threshold. This year’s CBT markers begin at $237MM. Boston isn’t close to that mark and it doesn’t appear they’re particularly interested in approaching it, at least during the winter. The competitive balance tax number is finalized at year’s end, so in-season acquisitions count against it (albeit on prorated salaries at that point).

Boston narrowly exceeded the luxury tax in 2022. That backfired, as they finished in last place in the AL East. The actual tax payment (roughly $1.2MM) was minimal, but staying above the threshold reduced their draft compensation for the losses of Xander Bogaerts and Nathan Eovaldi in free agency. The Sox dipped below the line last year en route to another 78-84 finish and a second straight last place standing.

That disappointing run led ownership to dismiss Chaim Bloom. They tabbed Craig Breslow to lead baseball operations. The first-year chief baseball officer has played things cautiously thus far. Their only significant free agent signing was a two-year, $38.5MM rebound deal for Lucas Giolito. Boston took on a $5.85MM arbitration salary in the Tyler O’Neill trade. They offloaded part of Chris Sale’s salary in the trade sending him to Atlanta for Vaughn Grissom, though the $10.5MM they saved in that deal would have been deferred for more than 15 years anyhow.

With Sale leaving town not long after Giolito signed, the Sox have the same number of starting pitchers they did at the start of the winter. Breslow admitted earlier this week they’ve found it a “challenge” to bring in rotation help but noted they were still evaluating free agent and trade possibilities.

Rob Bradford of WEEI reports that Jordan Hicks was one of those rotation targets. The hard-throwing righty came off the board last week on a four-year, $44MM pact to the Giants. While Hicks has worked mostly in relief as a big leaguer, San Francisco will give him a shot in the rotation. According to Bradford, the Sox would also have let Hicks battle for a starting spot had he gone to Boston.

Craig Breslow Discusses Red Sox’s Outfield, Rotation

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The Red Sox are open to adding another right-handed hitter to their outfield mix, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow tells Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe. To that end, Abraham reports that Boston remains in contact with free agent outfielder Adam Duvall’s camp.

Duvall had a solid, if volatile, 2023 season. Signed to a one-year, $7MM contract over the offseason, he was arguably the best hitter in MLB for the first couple weeks. Duvall ran a .455/.514/1.030 line over his first 37 plate appearances before fracturing a bone in his left wrist while diving for a fly ball. The injury cost him two months.

He was mired in an extended slump upon coming off the injured list, limping to a .175/.253/.313 showing through the All-Star Break. Duvall found his stride again coming out of the Break, raking at a .293/.349/.654 clip through the end of August. The year ended on a dismal note, as he struck out in over 40% of his plate appearances while hitting .149/.177/.324 from September 1 on.

Despite the extreme peaks and valleys, Duvall’s overall offensive production was well better than average. He hit 21 homers with a .247/.303/.531 slash in 353 plate appearances. Boston’s decision to give him nearly 500 innings in center field predictably didn’t work out well, as he rated between three and five runs below average by Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved. Duvall has been a plus defender in left field throughout the course of his career though. Between the strong corner outfield defense and 30-homer upside, he’s a valuable player despite high strikeout totals and subpar on-base marks.

The Angels are the only other team that has been publicly linked to Duvall this offseason. At age 35, it seems likely he’ll sign another one-year pact, although there’s an outside chance he lands a second guaranteed season.

Breslow wasn’t with the Sox when they signed Duvall last January. Yet the front office has sought right-handed power in the outfield throughout his first offseason at the helm. Boston already swung a trade for Tyler O’Neill. They were linked to Teoscar Hernández before he signed a one-year, $23.5MM pillow contract with the Dodgers. Duvall would be significantly cheaper.

Even as the Sox pursued Hernández, they’d pointed to the rotation as their biggest priority. Boston took a rebound flier on Lucas Giolito. Not long thereafter, they subtracted Chris Sale in the trade to add Vaughn Grissom from the Braves. While Giolito seems a safer bet than Sale to log a full workload, the pair of moves leaves the Sox with the same number of starters they had at the beginning of the winter.

Breslow told Abraham the current rotation consists of four pitchers: Giolito, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and Nick Pivetta. That’d leave Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck and Josh Winckowski competing for the final spot. Offseason acquisitions Cooper Criswell and Max Castillo are among the depth options on the 40-man roster.

Of course, that’s not necessarily the mix they’ll take to Spring Training. Breslow conceded their efforts to add rotation help have thus far “been a challenge” but said they’re “still engaged in conversations with free agents and teams via trade.” The Sox have been loosely tied to top arms Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery (more so the latter) during the offseason, but more recent reports indicated they were looking at the next tiers down. With mid-level arms like Shota Imanaga and Marcus Stroman recently coming off the board, the free agent supply is dwindling beyond Snell and Montgomery.

That hints at payroll questions that have hung over the offseason. The Sox opened the 2023 season with a player payroll in the $181MM range, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That ranked 12th in the majors, their first time outside the top 10 this century. Roster Resource projects their 2024 payroll in a similar range, a little under $178MM. They’re almost $40MM away from next year’s base luxury tax threshold.

An offseason headlined by Giolito and trade pickups of Grissom and O’Neill presumably isn’t what many in the fanbase envisioned. That’s especially true after team chairman Tom Werner vowed in early November the organization would go “full throttle” to put their two straight last place finishes behind them.

Werner walked that phrasing back in a conversation with Sean McAdam of MassLive this afternoon. “Maybe that wasn’t the most artful way of saying what I wanted to say, which is that we’re going to be pressing all levers to improve the team,” he said. “In the end, nobody’s happy with our performance the last few years. Some years, we go after somebody who is about to be a free agent, or was a free agent, as it pertains to Trevor Story or Raffy Devers.”

After noting the organization made an unsuccessful run at Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Werner added the Sox “certainly aren’t happy with the current roster as it was at the end of last year, so if I was going to say it again, I would say that we’re going to be pressing all levers and weren’t going to be happy with just one (method) — that includes free agency, trades or talent from Triple and Double A. … In the end, we don’t have a line in terms of our payroll that we look at as much as trusting that Craig is going to deliver on his assurance that we’re going to be competitive.“

Latest On Red Sox Pitching, Trade Discussions

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Craig Breslow’s first offseason as Boston’s chief baseball officer has been marked by one notable free agent signing (Lucas Giolito’s two-year, $38.5MM deal) and several significant trades, with the likes of Tyler O’Neill and Vaughn Grissom joining the roster and Chris Sale, Alex Verdugo, and Luis Urias all leaving Fenway Park.  With more work on the pitching staff still to be done, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes that the Red Sox could again turn to the trade market, though with some limitations on the scope of their talks.

Rather than pursue pitchers who are just under team control through the 2024 season (i.e. Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber), Speier reports that the Sox are trying to acquire pitchers who have multiple years of control.  Naturally, such hurler come at a high asking price in trade talks, yet Boston is unsurprisingly wary about parting ways with its top prospects.  It doesn’t appear that any of Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, or Kyle Teel are available in talks, though it isn’t clear if the Red Sox might be more open to dealing from the next tier down on their list of minor leaguers.  Speier cites outfielder Miguel Bleis and second baseman Nick Yorke as among the several other Sox prospects who have drawn trade interest from rival clubs.

Between these relatively lesser prospects and other potential younger trade chips on the big league roster, the Red Sox might be able to swing some kind of deal for a more proven upgrade, whether in the rotation or perhaps even somewhere else on the roster.  However, as Speier writes, “there’s little sense they’ll push in the chips to land an established top-of-the-rotation starter either via trade or free agency.  Further additions appear more likely in the middle or back of the rotation to improve depth and reliability.”

This isn’t markedly different from past reports about Boston’s offseason plans, though the Sox were at least somewhat engaged on enough big-ticket names (Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell) to create the impression that the team was willing to splurge in the right circumstance.  Even with Montgomery and Snell still unsigned, it doesn’t look like the Red Sox will emerge as a real suitor unless either starter drops his asking price — though in that situation, one would imagine a lot of other clubs might also step up their pursuits.

One of the lingering questions of Boston’s offseason is how much Breslow has been authorized to spend, considering that some level of payroll limitation appears to be in place.  The Sox currently have approximately $177.5MM on the books for 2024 according to Roster Resource, so they’re pretty close to matching their $181.2MM Opening Day payroll from 2023.  That figure from last year ranked 12th in all of baseball, the first time in the 21st century that the Red Sox weren’t at least in the top ten in Opening Day spending.

This relative hesitation towards larger spending has manifested itself not only in the lack of movement on Montgomery or Snell, but also in Boston’s pursuit of Shota Imanaga.  Granted, it appears as though the league as a whole perhaps had some concerns over Imanaga’s viability as a Major League starter, given that his four-year, $53MM deal with the Cubs fell below industry expectations.  However, Imanaga’s contract could become a five-year, $80MM pact if the Cubs exercise a club option for 2028, and they’ll have to make that decision following the 2025 season and 2026 seasons or else Imanaga can trigger an opt-out clause.

The Red Sox also had interest in a more creative deal for Imanaga, but Speier reports that their offer included only two guaranteed years “with the potential for two additional vesting years.”  Imanaga will earn $23MM ($22MM in salary and a $1MM signing bonus) over his first two seasons in with the Cubs and Speier writes that Boston’s offer paid him more than that $23MM amount through 2025, though it isn’t surprising to see why Imanaga decided to take the Cubs’ offer.

There’s still plenty of offseason left for Breslow to make more moves, and an argument could be that made that the Red Sox roster is already looking better than it did in 2023.  That said, simply being better doesn’t necessarily translate to a team capable of contending for a championship or even a playoff berth, and patience is running thin amongst the fanbase after consecutive last-place finishes in the AL East.

Latest On Dylan Cease

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Dylan Cease remains atop the list of potential trade candidates for teams seeking rotation upgrades this offseason, but White Sox general manager Chris Getz isn’t backing off on his asking price in a trade, writes ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. Other clubs who’ve spoken to the Sox about Cease tell Rogers that the ask has been “multiple” top prospects with additional lower-end talent; the Sox aren’t open to dealing two affordable years of control over their top starter for a package centered around just one top-tier prospect.

That generally aligns with prior reporting that the White Sox asked the Reds for last year’s first-round pick, Rhett Lowder, and top prospects Edwin Arroyo and Connor Phillips in exchange for Cease. Other teams have similarly balked at the idea of parting with so much talent from the top end of their system.

Rogers reports that the Braves approached the Sox and dangled infielder Vaughn Grissom, among others, but were rebuffed. Grissom instead went to the Red Sox in the Chris Sale trade. The Yankees, despite having known interest in Cease, aren’t likely to further deplete their farm after already acquiring Juan Soto (and Alex Verdugo) this offseason, per Rogers — at least not at the current asking price. Outfield prospect Spencer Jones, in particular, seems highly unlikely to be included in any potential deal, he adds. Meanwhile, Jim Bowden of The Athletic writes in his latest mailbag that talks between the Red Sox and White Sox never gained traction, thanks to Chicago’s steep ask.

Despite the lack of traction in talks thus far, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic said in a Tuesday appearance on Foul Territory that he expects Cease to be moved prior to the season. The demand for starting pitching, as Rosenthal rightly observes, clearly outpaces the supply that’s available in free agency. Beyond that, the asking price on some other pitchers rumored to be available — Jesus Luzardo, in particular — would likely be even greater than the ask for Cease. Luzardo has three years of club control as compared to Cease’s two.

Each of the Red Sox, Orioles, Yankees, Rangers, Angels, Giants, Dodgers and Padres, at the very least, could still use some degree of rotation upgrade. The Cardinals signed three free agents early in the offseason (Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson) but were reported to have interest in Cease even after making that trio of additions.

Getz, unsurprisingly, kept things close to the vest in his public comments yesterday. The newly minted general manager rattled off a series of familiar choruses, noting that Cease would only be moved for the right deal, that there was no urgency to make a swap given his remaining club control, and specifying that the majority of the league has shown at least some level of interest in the right-hander.

Cease is coming off a down season that saw him post a 4.58 ERA with a slightly diminished 27.3% strikeout rate. That’s down only by his lofty standards; he punched out 30.1% of his opponents a year prior while pitching to a sparkling 2.20 ERA that netted him a runner-up finish in American League Cy Young voting.

While last year’s ERA was unsightly, Cease still missed bats at a high level, sat just under 96 mph in terms of average fastball velocity, and notched a well above-average 13.6% swinging-strike rate. He’s also made a full slate of starts in each of the past four seasons, leading the Majors with 109 games started since 2020. Add in that Cease is projected for an eminently affordable $8.8MM salary in arbitration this winter (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) and is controllable through the 2025 season, and his appeal becomes even more apparent.

Any team to acquire Cease would surely view him as a prime rebound candidate whom they can control for two seasons before recouping some prospect value in the form of a qualifying offer. An extension with Cease always remains a possibility, albeit perhaps a faint one. Clients of the Boras Corporation tend to test the open market, though there are plenty of examples of Boras clients who have instead signed extensions (e.g. Xander Bogaerts, Jose Altuve, Stephen Strasburg, Carlos Gonzalez — among others).

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