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Big Hype Prospects

Big Hype Prospects: Moreno, Ortiz, Casas, Perez, Rafaela

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we catch up on some pre-holiday shopping.

Five BHPs In The News

Gabriel Moreno, 22, C, ARI (MLB)
(AAA) 267 PA, 3 HR, 7 SB, .315/.386/.420

Moreno headlined the Diamondbacks return in the Daulton Varsho trade. FanGraphs describes him as “the most athletic catcher to come along since J.T. Realmuto.” Last season, Moreno continued to put his contact skills on display. A brief 73 plate appearance trial in the Majors yielded a high batting average and tiny 11.0 percent strikeout rate. He generally produces modest exit velocities with a low angle of contact. In plain english, power isn’t a big part of his game, but he’ll be a valuable hitter all the same. He’ll need to make substantial adjustments to ever become a regular 20 homer threat.

There are questions about his ability to carry a full workload given that he’s never topped 350 plate appearances in a season. He’s considered an above average defender with sufficient athleticism to improve. With Carson Kelly still in-house, the Diamondbacks can consider platooning Moreno between catcher and designated hitter while working on his durability.

Luis Ortiz, 23, SP, PIT (MLB)
(AA) 114.1 IP, 9.92 K/9, 2.68 BB/9, 4.64 ERA

The lightbulb clicked for Ortiz partway through the 2022 campaign. His command improved as he became more aggressive with his domineering stuff leading to a successful 10 inning stint in Triple-A followed by 16 more frames in the Majors. Given his lack of Triple-A experience, it’s understandable why the Pirates have gone out of their way to delay Ortiz’s arrival via the signings of Vince Velasquez and Rich Hill. Ortiz has impressive Statcast measurables. Health permitting, he’s on pace to soon form a potent one-two punch with Roansy Contreras in the Pirates rotation.

Triston Casas, 22, 1B, BOS (MLB)
(AAA) 317 PA, 11 HR, .273/.382/.481

Virtually everybody in baseball is ready to see Casas sink or swim as the Red Sox first baseman of the present and future. The only barrier entering this offseason was a certain veteran. Removing Eric Hosmer from the roster ensures manager Alex Cora won’t have to juggle any difficult decisions. Casas had a mixed 95 plate appearance debut last season, showing power and discipline but posting a poor .197 batting average. In this case, his .208 BABIP appears especially fluky. If anything, his batting profile is that of a high-BABIP hitter. Some of his at bats felt like he was selling out for contact (my personal observation, not that of a scout), a common “mistake” among debut hitters. Look for him to further refine his approach and consistency in 2023.

Eury Perez, 19, SP, MIA (AA)
75 IP, 12.72 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 4.08 ERA

On the shortlist with Andrew Painter for most exciting teenaged pitching prospect, Perez is one of the reasons the Marlins are shopping Major League starting pitchers. He’s on pace to arrive in the second half of 2023. Scouts laud his excellent fastball command and biting slider. He’s a skyscraper of a man whose very size ensures a unique look. Scouts believe his changeup can develop into a weapon as well. His curveball is seen as a less competitive offering that can play up based on the effectiveness of his other pitches.

It’s worth mentioning this is the organization that, a decade ago, jumped a 20-year-old Jose Fernandez straight from High-A to the Majors. Of course, none of those decision-makers remain on hand, making it highly unlikely we see a repeat with Perez.

Ceddanne Rafaela, 22, OF, BOS (AA)
(A+/AA) 522 PA, 21 HR, 28 SB, .299/.342/.539

The Red Sox are reportedly shopping their prospects for upgrades with Rafaela serving as the most-highly valued of the bunch. Rafaela wasn’t a consensus top prospect in the Red Sox system prior to last season. Now he’s widely considered their third-best farmhand behind Marcelo Mayer and Casas. He displayed a tantalizing mix of power and speed last season, though there are still worrisome signs with his offensive stats. He lacks discipline and carries a high swinging-strike rate. Hitters who thrive with the Javy Baez profile are few and far between.

Should his discipline and whiff issues become an impediment, Rafaela has super utility man potential. He’s presently being trained as a center fielder. He also played 12 games at shortstop last season and has prior experience at second and third base. He’s considered an above average outfielder. I do not have reports on his infielding acumen.

Three More

Corbin Carroll, ARI (22): Although there was little doubt Carroll would start for the 2023 Diamondbacks, the Varsho trade all but ensures an Opening Day role. A line drive machine with excellent discipline in the minors, Carroll had a mixed debut. His 130 wRC+ in 115 big league plate appearances belied below average exit velocities and merely average discipline. Look for those traits to dramatically improve throughout 2023.

Dominic Fletcher, ARI (25): Another “winner” of the Varsho trade, Fletcher no longer has an entire squadron of outfielders ahead of him on the depth chart. Should Alek Thomas continue to struggle and Jake McCarthy suffer a sophomore slump, then Fletcher might just worm his way into the Arizona lineup. Likelier, he’ll serve as trade bait. The Diamondbacks still need pitching depth.

Kumar Rocker, TEX (22): Kumar made his debut in the Arizona Fall League, pitching 14 innings with mixed results. His 18 strikeouts were encouraging, but they were offset by 12 walks and a 4.50 ERA. He appeared in the news this last week in connection to Carlos Correa’s delayed contract with the Mets. New York selected Rocker in the first round of the 2021 draft only to back out of their deal over concerns with his physical.

Big Hype Prospects: Alvarez, Muller, Ruiz, Naylor, Westburg

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Our coverage of in-the-news prospects continues. A couple signings and the Sean Murphy trade give us plenty of fodder to chew upon. The Braves did an excellent job of converting unneeded role players into a premium upgrade. We’ll touch on several of the former-Braves now enjoy new homes with the Athletics and Brewers.

Francisco Alvarez, 21, C, NYM (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 495 PA, 27 HR, .260/.374/.511

The Mets continue to fortify their Major League roster, building out a resiliency of depth they’ve lacked for… the entirety of my living memory. The Mets have always been a club of “just enough,” a formula that rarely works in a 162-game season with extended playoffs.

The addition of catcher Omar Narvaez to veterans James McCann and Tomas Nido seemingly gives New York the opportunity to promote Alvarez if and when they believe he is ready for a regular starting role. That could be immediately out of Spring Training or later in the season. Cynically, it’s worth noting the Mets might gain an extra season of club control by holding Alvarez back until late April. Due to his age, there’s appeal to such an approach.

The recently-turned 21-year-old had a brief cup of coffee to finish 2022. He flashed trademark power, discipline, and a tendency to whiff. At this early stage of his career, he might be a tad too disciplined – a common issue for precocious, discipline-oriented sluggers. Minor league pitchers are exploitable in ways Major Leaguers are not. A second stint in Triple-A – where he compiled 199 plate appearances with a 121 wRC+ – could help him to add a touch of targeted aggression to his approach. Otherwise, he risks carrying over-30 percent strikeout rates early in his career. The tools are there for more acceptable whiff rates. Even without that adjustment, he profiles as an above average hitter.

Then there’s the matter of defense where some of his mechanics are a tad unconventional. This is made necessary by his stocky build. He doesn’t squat as deeply into his crouch as most catchers. Without runners on base, he uses a kneeling approach. There are questions about his blocking (when kneeling) and pitch-framing (when squating). Even his arm, which is at least 60-grade, could play down if opponents correctly guess when he squats and kneels.

Kyle Muller, 25, SP, OAK (MLB)
(AAA) 134.2 IP, 10.63 K/9, 2.67 BB/9, 3.41 ERA

The highest-rated prospect dealt by the Braves in the Sean Murphy trade, Muller has performed well against Triple-A competition for two straight seasons. With the Braves contending and enjoying considerable rotation depth, Muller hasn’t received many opportunities in the Majors. In total, the southpaw has made 12 appearances, 11 starts, for a total of 49 innings with a 5.14 ERA. Muller has a four-pitch repertoire. Three pitches grade out as average or better. His changeup is considered a platoon pitch. His ascent has been slowed by poor command. Although his low walk rate last season seems a positive development, none of the contacts I reached out to believe his command has truly improved. As of now, he profiles as an inefficient fifth starter or high-upside reliever.

Esteury Ruiz, 23, OF, OAK (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 541 PA, 16 HR, 85 SB, .332/.447/.526

The other notable prospect in the Murphy swap, Ruiz had a season to remember in the minors. Neither the Padres nor Brewers gave him many opportunities in the Majors despite rostering him for a considerable chunk of the season. All told, he attempted 102 steals and succeeded 86 times (84.3%) over a total of 576 plate appearances. With new rules on the way, Ruiz could find himself among the stolen base leaders if he hits enough to merit a starting role.

That last detail is in doubt. Despite incredible minor league numbers last season, a half dozen public scouting reports all point to a reserve role. The Athletics undoubtedly hope experience will unlock at least a second-division starter upside – as they attempted with Cristian Pache last season. While he’s drawn some (very) lazy comps to Alfonso Soriano for his combination of power and speed, Ruiz’s hit tool is suspect. He’s shown an ability to work counts and avoid strikeouts, but he seems to do this at the expense of exit velocity. As such, his power plays down in games since he’s so rarely taking his best swing.

Bo Naylor, 22, C, CLE (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 510 PA, 21 HR, 20 SB, .263/.392/.496

Between the lost 2020 season and a terrible 2021 campaign, Naylor found himself entering last year with much to prove. He recovered his prospect panache by adjusting his swing mechanics and now profiles as the Guardians catcher of the future. He even made eight plate appearances for Cleveland, though he went hitless with five strikeouts. The defense-oriented Guardians opted to bring in Mike Zunino on a one-year, $6MM deal to bridge the gap.

Naylor has rare speed for a backstop. The last catching prospect to display similar wheels was Daulton Varsho. The last such catcher to stick at the position as a longterm starter was J.T. Realmuto. Naylor’s defense doesn’t draw rave reviews, but it’s merely below average. A scout I questioned believed he can be an average defender. Cleveland’s preference for elite defensive catchers might lead to a position switch for trade for Naylor. I keep thinking back to Varsho, an acceptable but unexceptional catcher who turned into a gold glove center fielder almost overnight.

Jordan Westburg, 23, SS, BAL (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 622 PA, 27 HR, 12 SB, .265/.355/.496

One of my beats last year was with an Orioles blog, Baltimore Sports and Life. At the end of the season, there were two schools of thought regarding the Orioles 2023 middle infield. One group (including me), advocated for signing one of the four free agent shortstops, moving Gunnar Henderson to third base, and using Jorge Mateo and Ramon Urias at second base until prospects arrived. Others were ready to hand the keys directly to Westburg (or the next guy below) and save the budget for one of the top pitchers on the market.

Baltimore GM Mike Elias opted for Door #3, choosing to ink Adam Frazier on a one-year rebound contract eerily reminiscent of the deal handed to Rougned Odor prior to last season. While Frazier won’t truly block Westburg or others, his presence will help delay the need to promote them. Nevertheless, Westburg is seemingly ready. He spent most of last season in Triple-A where he posted a 129 wRC+. As a hitter, he’s a well-rounded pile of 50-grades. He might be going down a Willy Adames-like path – not a household name but better than a typical core performer. He’s a tad stretched defensively on the left side of the infield, but he should be an above average defender at the keystone. While there’s utility risk here, it’s a premium version of it – in the same way that Chris Taylor, Tommy Edman, and Jake Cronenworth are “utility men.”

Four More

Joey Ortiz, BAL (23): One of my favorite Peripheral Prospects, Ortiz isn’t all that highly rated nationally. The Orioles love him. He’s contact-oriented and gets to more game power than you might expect based on his size. He’s trained as a utility man who profiles as a plus defensive second baseman and acceptable elsewhere. He might just beat Westburg to the Majors. Ortiz is already on the 40-man roster.

Jeter Downs, BOS (24): When the Red Sox acquired Downs in the Mookie Betts trade, he was an up-and-comer with impressive minor league stats. With Boston, he developed a serious swinging strike problem – and a commensurate 30 percent strikeout rate. Questions about his hit tool predated the trade, but this outcome feels like a total developmental failure. Now in DFA limbo, Downs looks like somebody another org might be able to salvage.

Freddy Tarnok, OAK (24): It’s been a slow burn for Tarnok who has long profiled as a future big leaguer even without flashing standout skills. He has a four-pitch repertoire, but his secondaries need further refinement. The short path to the Majors is via the bullpen where his velocity might play up. Oakland can afford to be patient.

Royber Salinas, OAK (21): The last notable prospect acquired by Oakland for Murphy, Salinas has starter caliber stuff and poor command. The instinct among evaluators is to move him to relief and watch him take off. He’s entering his Rule 5 evaluation year which could force the Athletics hand.

Big Hype Prospects: Painter, Graceffo, Herrera, Thomas, Wesneski

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My Rule 5 coverage didn’t go to plan. While I successfully tabbed first overall pick Thad Ward, he was the only Rule 5 eligible player chosen of the 25 we evaluated. Ryan Noda was left off due to his age. All the others chosen were not on my radar.

With the Winter Meetings behind us, we’ll swing into full offseason mode here at Big Hype Prospects with a focus on young players affected by recent news.

Five BHPs In The News

Andrew Painter, 19, SP, PHI (AA)
(A/A+/AA) 103.2 IP, 13.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.56 ERA

The Phillies had what can only be described as a successful Winter Meetings, checking off all three boxes on their offseason wishlist. With Taijuan Walker joining the rotation, the club reportedly intends to leave the fifth slot as a battle between Bailey Falter and their stable of prospects. Though he’s younger than Mick Abel, Griff McGarry, and other candidates, Painter is under consideration for an early-season rotation role. He turns 20 shortly after Opening Day. While Falter is the odds-on favorite for the fifth slot, that assumes no preseason injuries to their planned rotation.

Painter carried an unusually large workload for a teenager including two late-season outings of 26 or more batters faced. He made short work of three minor league levels. He gives every appearance of Major League readiness, though a stint in Triple-A might prove beneficial.

Gordon Graceffo, 22, SP, STL (AA)
(A+/AA) 139.1 IP, 9.0 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 2.97 ERA

The Cardinals pursuit of a catcher ended with the signing of Willson Contreras. In negotiations with the Athletics for Sean Murphy, Oakland apparently requested Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, and Graceffo. The right-hander has an effective four-pitch repertoire coupled with above-average command. While the details differ, this is basically the same starter kit as Zac Gallen – a deep array or weapons with the means to use them all effectively. Graceffo ran into some speed bumps in Double-A, posting a 3.94 ERA with a 5.07 FIP in 18 starts. He’s on pace to debut in late-2023 or at some point in 2024.

Ivan Herrera, 22, C, STL (AAA)
278 PA, 6 HR, 5 SB, .268/.374/.394

Long considered the heir apparent to Yadier Molina, Herrera isn’t quite far enough along in his development for the Cardinals to hand him the keys. He looked overmatched in a tiny 22 plate appearance Major League sample. While the acquisition of Contreras could render him expendable, the Cardinals have resisted trading touted prospects in recent seasons. It’s entirely plausible St. Louis will treat Contreras as an expensive stopgap to be traded if ever Herrera surpasses him. Herrera draws mixed reviews for his defense with most reports considering him below-average but passable. His athleticism suggests he could be a late bloomer behind the dish. Plate discipline and contact skills are his carrying traits as a hitter. Though he’s no slouch in the power department, he doesn’t hold a candle to Contreras’ exit velocities.

Alek Thomas, 22, OF, ARI (MLB)
411 PA, 8 HR, 4 SB, .231/.275/.344

No longer technically a prospect by the prevailing definition, Thomas is nevertheless prospect-aged and sufficiently talented. His Major League debut didn’t go to plan, but he held his own thanks to positive defense and baserunning. Thomas’ batted ball profile is built for generating high-BABIPs and batting averages, but he slumped to a .263 BABIP in the big leagues. Part of his minor league success included plus plate discipline. He was below average in this regard in his debut, a sign he didn’t adjust well to sharp scouting reports.

Arizona’s outfielders will be in-demand all winter long, especially once the remaining quality free agents like Andrew Benintendi and Michael Conforto sign.

Hayden Wesneski, 25, SP, CHC (MLB)
(AAA) 110.1 IP, 8.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.92 ERA

The Cubs signed Jameson Taillon last week and were reportedly among the finalists for Kodai Senga before he signed with the Mets. Their focus on upgrading the rotation could leave Wesneski without an Opening Day role in the Majors. Acquired in the Scott Effross trade, Wesneski finished 2022 with a lovely 33-inning stint with Chicago. He pitched to a 2.18 ERA with a 3.20 FIP. Wesneski wields a five-pitch repertoire of three fastballs, a slider, and a changeup. They bleed together in a way that stymies hitters despite a lack of overpowering stuff. One scout I spoke with believes the Cubs are better suited than the Yankees to get the most from his particular approach. Whether or not Wesneski opens in the rotation, he is an important part of the club’s 2023 plans.

Five More

Ryan Noda, OAK (26): The second overall pick in the Rule 5 draft, Noda is highly likely to slot into the Athletics lineup and never look back. He’s been among the top minor league performers for his entire career. Notably, he has always been old for his levels. He uses discipline as a weapon and has made steady gains in other facets of his game over the years. He even steals bases, though nobody will confuse him for a speedster. Think of him as vaguely similar to a more athletic Dan Vogelbach.

Dominic Fletcher, ARI (25): Though not nearly of the same pedigree as their other in-house options, Fletcher looks the part of a second-division starter or adequate fourth outfielder. He’s slowed to the point that center field is no longer a fit, and his modest power isn’t ideal for a corner outfield role. His batted profile yields high BABIPs, and his discipline improved last season. He could be a draw in trade discussions, and Arizona shouldn’t mind shopping him given their depth.

Keyshawn Askew, TBR (22): True to his name, Askew brings the funk from the left side. Acquired in the Brooks Raley deal, Askew profiles as a likely future reliever who seems destined to flummox hitters for years to come. He throws a sinker and slider out of a quirky sidearm armslot. The Rays love to collect unusual pitchers. There’s yet a chance they keep him stretched out as a starter.

Michael Busch, LAD (25): An accomplished minor league hitter, Busch has slow-burned through the Dodgers system. He’s considered a poor defensive second baseman but might get a chance there nonetheless due to the club’s intention to stay out of Carlos Correa’s market. He hit .266/.343/.480 (102 wRC+) with 21 home runs in 504 Triple-A plate appearances last season.

Jacob Amaya, LAD (24): Amaya is a more defensively able option at second base if Gavin Lux is indeed shifted to shortstop on a full-time basis. After torching Double-A pitching, Amaya was merely decent at Triple-A. He’s shown consistently above-average discipline but there’s often a notable lack of impact when he connects. For a team with Dodgers standards, he looks more like a utility man than a starter. Lesser clubs might happily count him as a regular.

Big Hype Prospects: Rodriguez, Volpe, Mervis, Bae, Macko

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With the Rule 5 Draft looming, we’ll touch on a few more names who could find themselves with a new organization in the next few days. We’ll also start our pivot to offseason mode, highlighting prospects who are in the news.

Five BHPs In The News

Grayson Rodriguez, 22, SP, BAL (AAA)
69.2 IP, 12.53 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 2.20 ERA

If not for a lat strain, Rodriguez would have graduated from prospect lists. The Orioles are in the market for multiple starting pitchers, but Rodriguez reportedly has an inside path to an Opening Day role, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. The consensus top pitching prospect in the league wields upwards of five above-average offerings with a superstar-caliber changeup as his headliner. Rodriguez’s rookie campaign will go a long way toward determining if the Orioles can build upon their surprising 2022 success.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 511 PA, 21 HR, 50 SB, .249/.342/.460

The Yankees aren’t expected to be active participants in the shortstop market this winter largely because Volpe and Oswald Peraza await in the wings. Peraza already has a successful 57 plate appearance stint in the Majors, albeit with worrisome exit velocities. Getting back to Volpe, he only has 99 plate appearances of experience in Triple-A and might merit further seasoning. He hit just .236/.313/.404 in the minor’s highest level, good for only a 91 wRC+. His swing is geared for extreme fly ball rates. As a result, his batting average might play below his raw tools. If he continues hitting over 50 percent fly balls, he profiles as a future 40-homer threat as he ages into more strength. Initially, he might frustrate with too many softly hit flies and pop-outs. There’s also potential for him to tighten up his launch angle to sacrifice a few home runs for better outcomes on average. Volpe has multiple pathways to superstardom.

Matt Mervis, 24, 1B, CHC (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 512 PA, 36 HR, 2 SB, .309/.379/.606

A frequent guest of this column in recent months, Mervis charged through three levels while greatly improving his contact rate and plate discipline at each stop. For icing on the cake, he turned in a quality performance in the AFL. He’s very much in consideration for an Opening Day role as the Cubs first baseman or designated hitter. Chicago is reportedly on the hunt for a first baseman, but that won’t necessarily affect Mervis since designated hitter is also vacant. He profiles as a way-too-early frontrunner for NL Rookie of the Year.

Ji Hwan Bae, 23, 2B/OF, PIT (MLB)
(AAA) 473 PA, 8 HR, 30 SB, .289/.362/.430

Bae turned in 37 solid plate appearances in the Majors. Like Peraza above, Bae posted an above-average batting line despite worrisome quality of contact. He mostly played second base and shortstop in the minors with some time in center field too. Outfield might be his best path forward on the Major League roster. There’s a whiff of Tommy Edman to Bae. He has defensive utility, a speed-first profile, and makes low-angle contact leading to high BABIPs and rare home runs. The Pirates are said to be considering middle infield additions which could affect Bae’s Opening Day assignment.

Adam Macko, 21, SP, TOR (A+)
38.1 IP, 14.09 K/9, 4.70 BB/9, 3.99 ERA

The Blue Jays acquired Macko as half of the return for Teoscar Hernandez. A mystery injury prevented Macko from working much this season, though he did appear in the AFL. The upcoming season is his Rule 5 evaluation year which might push him toward a bullpen role. He has the stuff to start – a three-pitch repertoire of average or better offerings. The southpaw is inconsistent, often losing command of his secondary offerings. Predictably, his fastball plays down when this happens. When he’s on, he mows through low-minors hitters as evidenced by 14.09 K/9 and a 15.8 percent swinging strike rate.

Five More Rule 5ers

Kameron Misner, TBR (24): Originally acquired in exchange for Joey Wendle, Misner has plus discipline, power, and speed. He’s a capable defensive centerfielder. Misner has yet to taste Triple-A despite never posting a below-average batting line. His biggest weakness is a lofty strikeout rate, but the rest of his profile seemingly supports this drawback. Among hitters, Misner would top my personal Rule 5 wishlist as a fifth outfielder and potential righty-masher.

Ronny Simon, TBR (22): Although he lacks Misner’s physicality and upside, Simon might be even more likely to be selected. He performed well in the Arizona Fall League following solid High- and Double-A campaigns. At the plate, Simon hides swing-and-miss issues with aggression. He’s developed sneaky pop and has shown a willingness to steal bases. Simon is a utility man who fits best at second or third base.

Andres Chaparro, NYY (23): The Yankees infield depth likely led them to leave Chaparro unprotected. He’s coming off an impressive performance at Double-A including a .289/.369/.594 line with 19 home runs in 271 plate appearances. The main knock against him is a lack of durability. He’s a corner infielder by trade.

Adrian Hernandez, TOR (22): A diminutive right-hander (by baseball standards), Hernandez is a changeup specialist who succeeds by keeping opponents off balance. Between his stature and pitching approach, it’s an unusual profile. ‘Unusual’ tends to do well in the current meta. Hernandez pitched well early in 2022. He struggled upon returning from a shoulder injury.

Cam Devanney, MIL (25): Although he’s never really appeared on prospect lists, Devanney made a swing adjustment last season. He now looks like a sure-fire Major Leaguer. He flashed power and adequate discipline at Double-A and performed well in a brief trial at Triple-A. His most attractive trait is utility – he’s proven himself a capable defender at shortstop, second, and third base.

Big Hype Prospects: Miller, Nunez, Thomas, Ramos, Duran

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Building on last week’s column, we’ll continue evaluating possible Rule 5 draft targets. By nature, these are not truly “big hype prospects.” After all, Rule 5 picks rarely go on to have notable Major League careers. We’ll have a few leftovers to discuss next week.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Erik Miller, 24, RP, PHI (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 48.1 IP, 11.5 K/9, 5.8 BB/9, 3.54 ERA

At times, Miller looked like he might one day be a Top 100 prospect. At his best, he shows a four-pitch repertoire of average or better offerings from the left side. Unfortunately, errant command causes his stuff to play down. In a brief 12-inning trial at Triple-A, he allowed 14 walks, one hit batter, and four home runs. Between suspect strike-throwing ability and his late-season flop, the Phillies must have determined he couldn’t help them contend in the near future. Their 40-man roster is already crowded. Other clubs without the burden of a 2023 playoff push might be more willing to hand Miller a role, especially since he’s a southpaw. His career has been interrupted by several injuries. A healthy stretch could help him to resolve his command woes.

Malcom Nunez, 21, 1B, PIT (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 493 PA, 23 HR, 5 SB, .262/.367/.466

Designated hitters tend to escape Rule 5 scrutiny. Perhaps we’ll see new trends with the universal DH in place. Nunez has almost no defensive value even though he’s mostly played first and third base. The Pirates acquired the slugger as part of the Jose Quintana deal. Nunez mashed at Double-A last season and had a successful five-game stint in Triple-A. He showed improved strike zone judgment and is prone to hard, low-angle, pulled contact which cuts into his home run potential. He might be a more substantive Rule 5 target this time next year.

Tahnaj Thomas, 23, RP, PIT (AA)
50.2 IP, 9.24 K/9, 3.55 BB/9, 3.02 ERA

Thomas is a former top prospect whose development has plateaued in recent years. He looks like a big league pitcher and even used to brush triple-digit velocity on the regular. Lately, his fastball has sat in the mid-90s. It’s his best offering. A lack of secondary stuff continues to constrain his progression. Given his modest success at Double-A despite middling stuff, I expect some club will take a leap to see if they can teach him a breaking ball during Spring Training. There’s also a chance the right pitching lab work could help him to recover his heater.

Jose Ramos, 21, OF, LAD (A+)
407 PA, 19 HR, 2 SB, .240/.322/.467

It’s possible 26-man rosters could help a few rebuilding clubs stomach rostering a player like Ramos. He’s a tooled-up slugger who’s prone to flailing at bendy stuff in the dirt. A year ago, he was on a Top 100 prospect trajectory. If he continues to produce in the upper minors, he could still rebound to that level. A jump straight to the Majors is almost certainly doomed to fail in terms of statistical results. Any acquiring team has to be comfortable getting close to no production from the corner outfielder in 2023. Drafting Ramos is a long-term gambit.

It’s worth noting that the Dodgers dev staff is considered one of the best in the league. If they’ve failed to help Ramos lay off breaking balls, there aren’t many clubs that can confidently expect to do better.

Carlos Duran, 21, SP, LAD (A+)
48.2 IP, 12.58 K/9, 4.44 BB/9, 4.25 ERA

This is a classic Rule 5 draft profile – a good young starter coming off a solid, age-appropriate performance. His stuff could instantly pop in the bullpen. The Dodgers never got around to evaluating him as a reliever – at least not during game action. Duran features a spicy upper-90s fastball with bowling ball sink. His slider is also considered a double-plus offering. He throws a changeup and curve, both of which are developing offerings that would likely be dropped if he’s picked up as a Rule 5 reliever. Given his imposing presence on the mound, he evokes another Duran (Jhoan Duran) though he lacks that top-end ceiling. Still, Duran is one of the better bets for teams hoping for the instant gratification of finding a high-leverage reliever.

Five More

Korry Howell, SDP (24): A toolsy utility man who shows best in the outfield, Howell combines plate discipline and speed with questions about his bat-to-ball ability. Though he only has mixed success in Double-A, his speed and defensive versatility might prove attractive to another club.

Corey Julks, HOU (26): Julks is one of the most statistically accomplished players available in the draft. Last season, he hit .270/.351/.503 in Triple-A with 31 home runs and 22 steals. He’s also one of the oldest plausible picks without Major League experience. While he could patch center field in a pinch, he’s a better fit defensively in the outfield corners. The only glaring flaw in his game is a lack of standout tools. Even so, this blend of contact, discipline, pop, speed, and acceptable defense is sufficient to merit an immediate big league look.

Ryan Ward, LAD (24): Over the last two seasons, Ward has popped a combined 55 home runs in 1,001 plate appearances split between High- and Double-A. A left-handed corner outfielder, he’s trending as a righty-mashing platoon bat. While he’d ideally get some time in Triple-A, a non-contending club might tolerate having him on the regular roster as a part-timer.

Dominic Canzone, ARI (24): Like Ward, Canzone passes a smell test as a possible platoon outfielder. He eviscerated Double-A pitching before posting a merely solid .284/.349/.489 line in 364 plate appearances. Remember, the Reno Aces play in a hitters’ haven. While he doesn’t have an obvious path to the Majors with the outfield-rich Diamondbacks, plenty of clubs should be interested in giving him a spring tryout.

Edgar Barclay, NYY (24): Barclay dominated High-A as a strike-throwing bulk reliever. The southpaw has a plus changeup but lacks an impact fastball or breaking ball. Since he’s short and left-handed, he could be used as a situational reliever and mop-up man. His lack of upper-minors experience could be a deterrent.

Big Hype Prospects: Ward, Vodnik, Lavigne, Murray, Sikkema

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It’s time to shift our attention to the frozen wasteland of the offseason. With luck, the baseball gods will provide us with an amply warm stove to survive this bleak period without baseball. Already, we’ve seen a number of interesting, tinkering-on-the-margins trades. Teams are also preparing for the Rule 5 draft, set to take place on December 7.

Today, we’ll check in on some players who were not protected per MLB.com. By nature, none of these are consensus Top 100 prospects. In some cases, they had a better prospect pedigree in the past. In others, scouting reports don’t agree with the statistical output. Still others are clearly talented but have struggled to stay on the field.

We’ll cover half today and the other half next week.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Thad Ward, 25, SP, BOS (AA)
33.1 IP, 11.07 K/9, 3.78 BB/9, 2.43 ERA

Ward has scarcely pitched in official game action since 2019, accruing just 59.1 innings over the last three seasons due to Tommy John surgery. He appeared in the Arizona Fall League, adding 12.2 innings to his season total. He held opponents to a 2.84 ERA with 15 strikeouts and six walks.

Any team thinking about drafting Ward will have to consider his readiness for a full campaign after so much lost development time. The right-handed starter has a five-pitch repertoire. It’s believed he could play up in the bullpen as a cutter-slider specialist – they’re his best offerings. He also has a sinker, curve, and changeup, none of which are relief-quality offerings.

Victor Vodnik, 23, RP, ATL (AAA)
27.2 IP, 10.73 K/9, 5.20 BB/9, 2.93 ERA

Vodnik is a relief prospect with a cutting fastball. He has an adequate changeup and a work-in-progress slider. He pitched to a 2.93 ERA at Triple-A last season. He had issues with walks but made up for it by inducing over 50 percent ground balls. He’s allowed high BABIPs – a sign he might not have a high leverage future. He appears to be big league ready. Teams can look at him as comparable to the typical non-roster invitee.

Grant Lavigne, 23, 1B, COL (AA)
242 PA, 5 HR, .245/.347/.370

Lavigne had a strong AFL showing, but it wasn’t enough for the Rockies to protect him from the upcoming draft. The left-handed hitting first baseman is a discipline-first hitter. Although he has plus raw power, he doesn’t access it in-game very often. His swing path could use work, especially since his upper-cut hack has yielded a high ground ball rate. Between his size and discipline, a team might believe there is something salvageable here with the right instruction. A flatter, more adaptable swing plane could yield immediate rewards.

Jayden Murray, 25, SP/RP, HOU (AA)
108 IP, 8.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 3.50 ERA

Part of the Trey Mancini trade, Murray profiles as a high-probability future big leaguer based on his command of a plus slider. His eventual role remains uncertain. He’s spent his entire career starting – with mostly positive results. His ERAs are consistently more than a run below his FIP, a symptom of the aforementioned slider command. Few minor league pitchers have a fine touch with their offspeed stuff. Murray has made only one appearance in Triple-A. Clubs could be curious to try him in a relief role to see if the stuff plays up. Even if it doesn’t, he looks like a plausible innings-eating, low-leverage reliever for any non-contender.

T.J. Sikkema, 24, SP/RP, KC (AA)
69 IP, 10.8 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 4.83 ERA

A former 38th-overall pick, the Royals acquired Sikkema as part of the Andrew Benintendi trade. After dominating at the Yankees High-A affiliate, Sikkema struggled to a 7.44 ERA with the Royals Double-A crew. While his performance doesn’t appear to be that of a plausible Rule 5 pick, he fits a historically favored profile for the draft. A southpaw with a 50 percent ground ball rate, he’s worked almost exclusively as a starter. A team in need of a lefty specialist could be interested to see how he performs as a reliever.

Five More

Ethan Hankins, CLE (22): Despite reaching Rule 5 eligibility, Hankins has barely pitched professionally. He’s totaled just 64 career innings across five seasons. He returned from Tommy John surgery at the end of 2022. At times, he has flashed multiple plus pitches. Hankins would rate as an extreme selection – he has yet to appear in High-A. Orgs lacking in both Major League and prospect talent – like the Nationals – might take an interest.

Chase Strumpf, CHC (24): Strumpf has topped out at Double-A where he’s mixed solid power and excellent discipline with a serious strikeout issue. Ironically, he was originally considered a hit-over-power prospect. Strumpf could be seen as a development project, especially if a club thinks they can unlock better results by teaching him selective aggression.

Yolbert Sanchez, CWS (25): Sanchez is a contact hitter who would have been valued more in past eras of baseball. His low-angle contact approach yields a high average at the expense of power and on-base skills. He’s mostly of interest for his value as a utility infielder who can put the bat on the ball – not unlike a Ronald Torreyes type.

Jeremiah Jackson, LAA (22): One of the younger and toolsier options available, Jackson made some notable gains at Double-A last season – specifically his rate of contact. The Angels don’t have a well-regarded development system. Jackson is young and talented enough that a team with better resources – might opt to sacrifice a roster spot for a season to see if they can unlock another level.

Micah Pries, CLE (24): Although he’s flown well-below the radar, Pries has done nothing but hit since his debut in 2021. A 2019 draftee, he missed that season due to a pre-draft hamstring injury. COVID restrictions cost him his 2020 campaign. Pries seems unlikely to be selected on so short a track record and modest scouting grades. In 504 Double-A plate appearances, he batted .266/.341/.473 with 18 home runs and 20 stolen bases. If there are underlying metrics supporting his success (I have no such info on him), a data-savvy team might give him a try.

Big Hype Prospects: Sheehan, Perez Jr., Kjerstad, Walker, Mervis

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Our Arizona Fall League prospect coverage is coming to a close. The league wraps up its postseason this weekend. We’ll use this opportunity for one last peek at game action before affiliated baseball closes down for the year.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Emmet Sheehan, 22, SP, LAD (AA)
AFL: 20.1 IP, 8 BB, 24 K, 3.54 ERA

Arguably the top pitching prospect in the AFL, Sheehan had a shaky start to his fall season. He ended with a masterpiece: a five-inning, 10-strikeout gem. He allowed one hit and one walk in the outing. A right-handed changeup specialist, command is the main bugaboo when it comes to Sheehan’s development. His repertoire plays together in a way that should flummox hitters at all levels. As a Dodger, there is increased pressure to refine his command if he wants to stick in the rotation. Most clubs would comfortably view him as a future starter – one who might fumble a few games in the early innings but make up for it by dominating in others. The Dodgers could yet opt to turn him into a swing-man or reliever as they have with several able pitching prospects in recent years.

Robert Perez Jr., 22, 1B, SEA (A+)
AFL: 77 PA, 3 HR, .231/.338/.415

A slow-burn prospect whose calling card is power, Perez neither seized nor fumbled his opportunity in the AFL. The Rule 5-eligible first baseman has impressive power which he put on display by winning the first Fall Stars Home Run Derby. He performed well during the regular season – mostly at Low-A where he was a tad old for the level. His potent regular season and passable AFL campaign should lead to a promotion to Double-A early in the season. Whether or not the Mariners opt to add him to their 40-man, the right-handed slugger probably isn’t ready for a straight jump to the Majors via the Rule 5 Draft. Even in the AFL, he struck out 22 times in 77 plate appearances (28 percent).

Heston Kjerstad, 23, OF, BAL (A+)
AFL: 104 PA, 5 HR, .357/.385/.622

Few players had more to prove this fall than Kjerstad. Now that the smoke has cleared, he answered some questions and raised others. The left-handed hitting outfielder led the league in plate appearances and at bats. He recorded five walks and 31 strikeouts. Given the modest quality of pitching in the AFL, it’s fair to wonder about his combination of aggression and swing-and-miss tendencies. This is a long-standing issue dating back to pre-draft reports. He worked on it during the regular season – possibly to the detriment of his power. On-site observers raved about the quality of Kjerstad’s contact… whenever he connected. Between premium exit velocities, plenty of fly balls, and all those at bats, it’s no surprise he led the league in extra-base hits.
Such prospects succeed when they’re adept at making adjustments. Kjerstad should get his first taste of the upper minors at some point next season.

Jordan Walker, 20, OF/3B, STL (AA)
AFL: 90 PA, 5 HR, 3 SB, .286/.367/.558

While others had flashier showings, Walker was the talk of the AFL. He handled himself with poise while flashing a superstar ceiling – both by the traditional eye-test and via Statcast measurables. He likely could hold his own in the Majors as soon as next season. The Cardinals have been working on shifting him to the outfield in deference to Nolan Arenado. The main element lacking in Walker’s development is the easiest to supply – experience. He needs more opportunities to face and adjust to star-caliber pitching. Along the way, he’ll likely develop into a regular All-Star candidate.

Matt Mervis, 24, 1B, CHC (AAA)
AFL: 68 PA, 6 HR, 2 SB, .262/.324/.590

Of AFL participants (excluding Joey Wentz), Mervis probably has the best chance to open 2023 in the Majors. Including the regular season, he hit 42 home runs in 646 plate appearances this year. Remarkably, especially for the AFL home run leader, he fanned just eight times (11.8% K%) this fall. He also improved his strikeout rate continuously throughout the regular season. He began in High-A, where he recorded a 24.1 percent strikeout rate. That dropped to just 20.0 percent in Double-A and 14.6 percent in Triple-A. The low rate at his final stop coincided with an 8.7 percent swinging strike rate – far better than the league average. If Mervis can continue to avoid strikeouts while tapping into his power, he’ll have a bright future as a mid-lineup left-handed slugger.

Five More

Edouard Julien (23): Julien has been covered ad nauseum in this column. No prospect did more to further their claim to a future Major League role this fall. He’ll almost certainly be protected from the upcoming Rule 5 Draft. Julien’s combination of discipline, contact, sneaky pop, and sneakier baserunning are the traits of a regular. He still needs to settle into a position defensively – an issue that has arisen a few times in the Twins recent past (Luis Arraez, Jose Miranda, Nick Gordon).

Evan Reifert, TBR (23): Reifert allowed a hit in his final inning of work, closing out the season with 11.2 innings, 40 batters faced, one hit allowed, four walks, and 25 strikeouts. Despite a relatively low inning total, he had the second-most strikeouts. The showing will help put him in consideration for a Major League role next season. The Rays have a crammed 40-man roster, and Reifert isn’t Rule 5-eligible until next offseason.

Tyler Hardman, NYY (23): A developing slugger with potent pop, Hardman is coming off Player of the Week honors. Overall, he posted a .325/.373/.662 line in 83 plate appearances. Of qualified hitters, he had the fourth-best OPS. Contact and inconsistent defense at the hot corner hold him back from appearing on prospect lists.

Nick Gonzales, PIT (23): Gonzales dropped from the spotlight due to injury and flawed performance. His AFL stint allowed him to build on a solid first showing in Double-A. In both settings, he succeeded without truly impressing. Whiffs remain an issue for a second baseman who is heavily dependent on his offensive output.

Francisco Morales, PHI (23): Morales is an interesting AFL participant because the Phillies have already burned two of his option years. They’re likely assessing if he should remain on the roster at all. He was one of four pitchers to throw 10 or more AFL innings without allowing an earned run. He recorded 17 strikeouts with only four hits allowed in 10.2 innings. He also issued seven free passes. Those walk issues have haunted him on a regular basis.

Big Hype Prospects: Ginn, Julien, Pages, Veen, Rocker

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Voting for the final participants of the Fall Stars Game is underway. The game itself is scheduled for 3pm CT on Sunday, November 6. If you happen to be in the area, swing by the game and meet up with participants of the First Pitch Arizona fantasy baseball conference hosted by Baseball HQ. Say hello from me (full disclosure, I am a staff writer with HQ).

Five Big Hype Prospects

J.T. Ginn, 23, SP, OAK (AA)
AFL: 12 IP, 4 BB, 12 K, 2.25 ERA

A former second-round pick of the New York Mets, the Athletics acquired Ginn in the Chris Bassitt trade. The right-hander is coming off a mixed performance in Double-A where he posted 10.44 K/9, 3.57 BB/9, a 56.6 percent ground ball rate, and a painful 6.11 ERA. Typically, pitchers who keep the ball on the ground while recording strikeouts and limiting walks represent a stable and effective asset class. Ginn’s season was cut short due to injury – hence his inclusion in the AFL. He only pitched 35.1 innings in 10 Double-A starts. Ginn is scheduled to pitch today (Friday) and is currently defending a brief scoreless streak. He appears to have a sufficient repertoire for starting though he might revert to relief if his command proves insufficient. While pitchers are never truly “can’t miss,” I consider Ginn to be a high-probability future Major Leaguer.

Edouard Julien, 23, 2B, MIN (AA)
AFL: 81 PA, 5 HR, 5 SB, .361/.519/.689

Far and away the top-performing hitter in the AFL, Julien appears to have turned a corner in his development. For older prospects like Julien, the fall league is for working on new skills. In his case, doing damage to pitches within the strike zone. He’s already proven to have an exceptional eye with enough contact skills to confidently take early-count strikes. However, to transition to the Majors, he’ll need to jump on those early-count cookies rather than let them pass. According to a contact, this is what he’s focusing on this fall. His 1.208 OPS suggests he’s succeeding. In addition to leading the league in OPS and walks, he’s tied for the lead in runs scored (19) and home runs (5). He’s hit all five of his home runs in the last 15 days.

For those keeping track at home, this is the same adjustment Gunnar Henderson made to launch his meteoric rise this season. That’s not to say Julien is physically comparable to Henderson, only that he has the raw ingredients to leap into the Top 100 prospects via a similar path.

Andy Pages, 21, OF, LAD (AA)
AFL: 83 PA, 4 HR, 1 SB, .286/.373/.486

If Pages has a thing to work on, it’s his strikeout rate. Thus far, he’s managed a lovely 12 percent strikeout rate this fall. He posted a 24.5 percent strikeout rate each of the last two seasons. We’ve covered Pages a few times in this column, and there’s no reason to believe anything has changed in his profile. He has average or better plate discipline, considerable raw power, and a swing geared for frequently pulled, fly ball contact. The batting profile reads similarly to early-career Rhys Hoskins. Pages has more raw power and a less discerning eye than the Phillies first baseman. He’s also far more athletic.

Pages is scheduled to participate in the Fall Stars Home Run Derby.

Zac Veen, 20, OF, COL (AA)
AFL: 85 PA, 1 HR, 16 SB, .353/.471/.456

Veen, who we touched upon during the first week of AFL coverage, remains the stolen base leader roughly one month into the season. Although he hasn’t hit for much power, the rest of his performance is encouraging. He’s recorded 14 walks compared to just six strikeouts. During the regular season, Veen showed plus discipline in High- and Double-A. However, he struggled to make contact, especially at Double-A. His AFL performance helps to put that in context. The 20-year-old was probably overmatched against older competition.

A strong showing in the upper minors next season could yield a 2023 Major League debut. The speedy outfielder is well-built for Coors Field. While we tend to think of the venue as a power haven, it bolsters all types of hitting. Besides, most scouts believe Veen will grow into considerable pop.

Kumar Rocker, 22, SP, TEX (—)
AFL: 7.2 IP, 9 BB, 8 K, 4.70 ERA

A late addition to the AFL roster, this represents Rocker’s first affiliated action. He got off to a rough start, uncorking multiple walks and wild pitches. He’s since settled down over his last two appearances, working 5.2 innings with four hits, one run, two walks, and all eight of his strikeouts. Rocker’s draft history makes for fascinating reading. Throughout his amateur prospectdom, he’s brought different arm slots and pitch mixes. The one unifying detail is a tendency for erratic command. On his best days, he looks like a surefire Major League workhorse. On his worst, he is indistinguishable from the hundreds of live-armed minor leaguers who have yet to (and might never) click on the lightbulb.

Five More

Connor Thomas, STL (24): The current strikeout leader by a healthy margin, Thomas pitched a five-inning, seven-strikeout gem since our last update. The southpaw is Rule 5 eligible and has almost certainly played his way into being selected if the Cardinals do not protect him. They appear to have sufficient roster flexibility to do so.

Evan Reifert, TBR (23): Also since our last update, Reifert has added three more no-hit innings along with seven strikeouts. That puts him at 10.2 no-hit innings on the season with 22 strikeouts. Four walks represent the lone blemish to his stat line. Reifert has the third-most strikeouts in the AFL despite throwing fewer than half the innings of Thomas.

Carlos De La Cruz, PHI (22): A mammoth human of roughly the size and shape of Aaron Judge, De La Cruz is a free-swinging center fielder with considerable power. He’s performed well this fall while still showing dreadful feel for the strike zone. His 24 strikeouts in 59 plate appearances (40.6% K%) rate as one of the worst performances in the AFL. Conversely, his .302/.373/.547 triple-slash with 16 hits, three home runs, and two triples is indicative of his quality of contact when he does connect.

Cal Conley, ATL (23): A switch-hitting future utility man who has only advanced to High-A, Conley is one of the finalists for a spot on the Fall Stars roster. He split the year between Low- and High-A, posting a roughly league-average batting line. In 83 plate appearances this fall, he’s batting .304/.422/.551 with two home runs, three triples, five doubles, and nine steals. Conley has the sixth-highest OPS over the last 15 days.

Mason Miller, OAK (24): Miller is a fireballer, regularly living in the triple-digits with his fastball. Over the last 15 days, he’s made two three-inning starts, holding opponents to just two hits, no walks, and nine strikeouts. Thus far in his professional career, he’s been used as a short-burst starter. He’s expected to eventually transition to the bullpen. His third pitch is a below-average changeup, and he also struggles with command. He fills the strike zone and lets his stuff overwhelm hitters rather than locating it.

Big Hype Prospects: Merrill, Marte, Davis, Yorke, Winn

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Big Hype Prospects remains focused on the Arizona Fall League. A general note before we dive in – I’m relaxing the definition of “big” so we can continue to cover different active players.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Merrill, 19, SS, SDP (A)
AFL: 73 PA, 1 HR, 2 SB, .308/.356/.431

Merrill was the 27th overall selection in the 2021 draft. One of the youngest players in the AFL, he’s held his own in Arizona after a promising regular season split between the complex and Low-A. He’s now arguably the top prospect in a Padres system that traded the likes of MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, CJ Abrams, and James Wood.

Merrill has the look of a throwback shortstop. He’s smaller than many of the current crop of shortstops and has a swing geared more for all-field contact than generating power. He appears to be a high-probability future big leaguer. It’s possible he’ll top out as a utility guy if certain aspects of his game – such as first-step quickness in the field – don’t age well. His defensive aplomb will go a long way toward determining his future role.

Noelvi Marte, 21, SS, CIN (A+)
AFL: 58 PA, 2 HR, 1 SB, .208/.345/.333

Marte hasn’t been particularly effective this fall – possibly a sign that he’s out of gas after a 520 plate appearance regular season split between Seattle and Cincinnati’s High-A affiliates. Marte has also been prone to streaks this year so he still has plenty of time to turn things around with a couple big games. Encouragingly, he’s recorded more walks than strikeouts. He recently hit a titanic 461-foot home run, showcasing his premium power upside.

Henry Davis, 23, C, PIT (AA)
AFL: 53 PA, 1 HR, 3 SB, .256/.415/.462

One of two exciting, near-Majors catching prospects in the Pirates system, Davis managed just 236 plate appearances during the regular season due to injuries. He’s mostly in Arizona to work on his defense. If he doesn’t improve in all defensive facets, he could eventually move to first base where his bat should still play – just a lot less excitingly. He’s shown more than his characteristic plate discipline this fall. While one home run seems disappointing for a player with premium raw power, he’s also hit five doubles.

Nick Yorke, 20, 2B, BOS (A+)
AFL: 76 PA, 1 HR, .328/.434/.492

Yorke was one of a few players with more to prove than most in the AFL. He’s mostly succeeded. Yorke currently leads the league in plate appearances and doubles (7). He also has 15.8 percent strikeout and walk rates. The Red Sox undoubtedly hope Yorke can fit in as a future leadoff hitter, and he’s filled that role ably this fall. Lately, it’s been shared that Yorke played through nagging injuries which might have led to his poor performance at High-A. Occasionally, the “nagging injury” card is played to distract from the real reasons for a lousy season. A healthy 2023 campaign could do much to restore confidence in Yorke’s future role in Boston.

Masyn Winn, 20, SS, STL (AA)
AFL: 52 PA, 1 HR, 6 SB, .300/.462/.375

Winn is an up-and-coming prospect. At present, the tools are more obvious than the actual statistical outcome. He’s a plus runner who has the capacity to hit for power. Scouts have noted that his game approach doesn’t always tap into those tools – as if he’s selling out for contact at the expense of power. Given that he’s a Cardinals prospect – a system that has long valued discipline and contact – this shouldn’t come as a surprise. Should Winn access more in-game power next season, he could climb onto Top 10 prospect lists. In the AFL, he has just one extra-base hit, though he’s otherwise performed well including 12 walks to just eight strikeouts.

Five More

Ronny Simon, TBR (22): Simon currently leads the AFL with 18 RBI. He’s the sort of player the Rays system tends to produce in bulk. He can play second or third base. During the regular season, he hit 22 home runs with 34 steals over 473 plate appearances. He spent the bulk of the season at High-A. Rule 5 eligible, Simon might not be doing enough to claim a 40-man spot with the roster-crunched Rays. If so, we could see him in the Majors next April as a Rule 5 draftee.

Connor Thomas, STL (24): The Cardinals will have a difficult choice with Thomas. He is also Rule 5 eligible. A ground ball machine who worked to a 5.47 ERA in 135 Triple-A innings this season, Thomas should find himself on a 40-man roster before long. While he didn’t succeed at preventing runs during the regular season, the 5’ 11’’ southpaw features plus command of a four-pitch repertoire. He’s arguably the top-performing pitcher in Arizona, posting a 1.53 ERA with 24 strikeouts and four walks in 17.2 innings. His slider in particular looks like it could play up in a relief role.

Evan Reifert, TBR (23): Reifert is the AFL’s top-performing reliever. He has 15 strikeouts with just one walk and no hits allowed in 7.2 innings. Acquired in the Mike Brosseau trade with the Brewers, Reifert has an upper-90s fastball and a two-plane, borderline elite slider. The right-hander has historically struggled with command, though he’s mostly avoided walks this year. He’s on pace to debut next season.

Zach Daniels, HOU (23): Daniels recently hit the longest home run of the 2022 AFL season – a 481-foot moonball to center field. It was his first home run in an otherwise poor showing in Arizona. He’s addressed his biggest demon – a sky-high strikeout rate – by punching out just five times in 26 plate appearances. However, he’s batting only .130/.231/.304. Power hitters of this profile tend to be volatile.

Zach Britton, TOR (23): Yet another catching prospect in the catcher-rich Blue Jays system, Britton is a highly disciplined left-handed hitter roughly in the mold of Cavan Biggio. Britton isn’t nearly as maxed out on fly ball contact which should help him to hit more consistently than Biggio. Britton should receive more attention from prospect outlets next season as he approaches a Major League debut. He’s currently second in the AFL in OPS with a .457/.524/.686 (1.210 OPS) triple-slash in 40 plate appearances.

Big Hype Prospects: Rojas, Walker, Pages, Lavigne, Kjerstad

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Big Hype Prospects remains focused on the Arizona Fall League. Let’s dig in.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Johan Rojas, 22, OF, PHI (AA)
AFL: 44 PA, 10 SB, .297/.386/.378

Rojas is one of the prospects I’m most closely tracking this fall. He’s Rule 5 eligible this winter, though there’s little chance the Phillies would risk exposing him to the draft. With his elite defense and double-plus speed, at least 20 teams could easily hide him on their roster for a full season. His development could affect how the Phillies approach the free agent and trade markets in the coming winters as they transition away from their long-standing reputation as a poor fielding franchise.

The early results in Arizona are a mixed bag. He does have a solid triple-slash and three doubles, though he’s yet to muscle up for a home run. Only Zac Veen (13) has more stolen bases. Rojas and Veen are also the only players to feature a three-steal game. Rojas did it by nabbing each bag once. You can find a video of his thefts of third and home via Jacob Resnick of MLB.com (scroll down). It sure looked to me (Twitter link) that the pitcher was a tad insulted by the steal of home.

Encouragingly, Rojas has five walks (11.4% BB%) and six strikeouts (13.6% K%) in his 44 plate appearances. The two areas of his game that need the most work are in-game power and plate discipline.

Jordan Walker, 20, 3B, STL (AA)
AFL: 47 PA, 2 HR, 1 SB, .300/.362/.525

Although nobody should be upset with the above stat line, Walker ranks just 25th out of 62 qualified hitters by OPS. Nevertheless, he’s putting on an impressive display on both sides of the ball that has only served to highlight his physical readiness. Like Rojas, Walker’s development has major implications for the Cardinals mid-range plans. It’s long been rumored that Nolan Arenado will not opt out of his contract. Walker, however, is a talented defender who has been measured brushing triple-digit velocities on throws across the diamond. He also features Major League caliber exit velocities – he regularly exceeds 100-mph with his batted balls. All this from a 20-year-old who has all the makings of a franchise cornerstone. If Arenado does remain in St. Louis, they’ll have tough decisions to make soon – perhaps as early as next spring.

Andy Pages, 21, OF, LAD (AA)
AFL: 43 PA, 3 HR, .278/.372/.556

A consistent power-hitting prospect, Pages is coming off a solid showing at Double-A. Barring a change in approach, he’s destined to be a low-average, high-ISO slugger. As a hitter, comparisons to vintage Rhys Hoskins are almost unavoidable (Hoskins adjusted his batted ball profile this season). Pages puts more than half of his batted balls in the air, has plus discipline, and features more than enough raw power to casually blast more than 30 home runs per full season. My home run calculator projects a range of 28 home runs (at a 15% HR/FB ratio) to 47 home runs (25% HR/FB ratio) per 600 plate appearances. Presently, he plays center field, though there are questions about his ability to stick there. Some scouts believe he’ll slow considerably as he ages.

Grant Lavigne, 23, 1B, COL (AA)
AFL: 42 PA, 1 SB, .389/.476/.611

Once considered an interesting prospect with upside, Lavigne has fallen off lists in recent years amidst unimpressive results. This season, he posted a 146 wRC+ as a slightly old High-A player before turning in a 102 wRC+ in Double-A. He’s a first-base-only prospect so his lack of power – 10 home runs in 524 plate appearances – could be a fatal blow to his prospectdom. However, he has excellent plate discipline and a batted-ball approach that could outperform expectations at Coors Field. When I squint, I see him as sort of similar to a more patient and whiff-prone version of Eric Hosmer. Although he’s yet to homer this fall, Lavigne leads the league with six doubles. Lavigne is Rule 5 eligible this winter and might be left exposed.

Heston Kjerstad, 23, OF, BAL (AA)
AFL: 57 PA, 4 HR, .352/.386/.648

Kjerstad leads the league with 19 hits and is tied with Matt Mervis for the home run lead. He also has four doubles. The other hit leaders have taken a slappier approach, featuring minimal extra-base contact. As we profiled last week, Kjerstad lost most of two seasons due to COVID shutdowns and heart inflammation.

In less positive news, his 16 strikeouts are second-worst in the AFL, behind only Rece Hinds. Whiffs figure to remain an unavoidable part of Kjerstad’s game. So long as he’s achieving game power – as he is this fall – he remains a promising but volatile prospect.

Five More

Lawrence Butler, OAK (22): A slow-burn prospect who has hit at every level up through High-A, Butler has the fourth-best OPS in the AFL. A patient slugger who has always struggled with strikeouts, he tallied 10 walks and only seven strikeouts through 42 plate appearances. As a left-handed hitter, he has an easier path to relevance than other players with a similar toolset like Peyton Burdick. Butler should spend 2023 in Double-A. He’s being evaluated for a 40-man roster spot since he’s Rule 5 eligible.

Yasel Antuna, WSH (22): Antuna will turn 23 next Wednesday. A former top international prospect, his development has been slower and less impressive than originally hoped. His plate discipline is his standout trait, and it’s been on full display in Arizona where he has seven walks and one strikeout in 23 plate appearances. There are rumors his discipline is actually passivity. A dose of targeted aggression could unlock better power outcomes.

T.J. Rumfield, NYY (22): Acquired from the Phillies in exchange for Nick Nelson, Rumfield is an intriguing first base prospect who missed considerable development time – both in college and post-draft. When he’s been on the field, he’s demonstrated superb plate discipline. He puts on power displays in batting practice, though this has yet to translate in-game. He currently leads the AFL with a 1.236 OPS in 38 plate appearances.

Austin Martin, MIN (23): Martin is next-best with a 1.168 OPS in 48 plate appearances. It’s a BABIP-driven batting line – only three of his 18 hits have gone for extra bases. An important component of the Jose Berrios trade, Martin has intriguing discipline and contact skills. In his present form, he profiles as a most-days super utility guy. There’s risk higher-level pitchers will overpower him.

Edouard Julien, MIN (23): Another future Twins utility guy, Julien features pristine plate discipline that can verge into passivity at times. His pickiness results in an elevated strikeout rate despite above-average contact skills. He’s also never posted below a 19.3 percent walk rate. For comparison, among qualified Major Leaguers, only Juan Soto (20.3% BB%) exceeded a 16 percent walk rate this season. Julien isn’t on par with Soto, but he does have a well-rounded skill set and… surprise, surprise, he leads the AFL with 13 walks (30.9% BB%) and 10 strikeouts (23.8% K%) in 42 plate appearances.

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