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Players Avoiding Arbitration: 12/1/20

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With the non-tender deadline on the horizon tomorrow, expect quite a few players to agree to contracts for the 2021 season, avoiding arbitration in advance. In many (but not all) cases, these deals — referred to as “pre-tender” deals because they fall prior to the deadline — will fall shy of expectations and projections. Teams will sometimes present borderline non-tender candidates with a “take it or leave it” style offer which will be accepted for fear of being non-tendered and sent out into an uncertain market. Speculatively, such deals could increase in 2020 due to the economic uncertainty sweeping through the game, although there are also widespread expectations of record non-tender numbers.

You can track all of the arbitration and non-tender activity here, and we’ll also run through today’s smaller-scale pre-tender deals in this post.  You can also check out Matt Swartz’s arbitration salary projections here.

Latest Agreements

  • Athletics second baseman Tony Kemp will get $1.05MM over one year, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle relays.
  • The Rockies announced that they have re-signed righty Jairo Diaz to a one-year pact. It’s worth $1.1MM, Feinsand tweets.
  • The Phillies and righty reliever Seranthony Dominguez have a one-year, $727,500 deal, according to Feinsand. Dominguez underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of June, so he might not pitch at all in 2021.
  • The Athletics and utility player Chad Pinder reached a one-year, $2.275MM deal, per Nightengale. Pinder has two seasons of team control left.
  • The Orioles and catcher Pedro Severino agreed to a one-year deal worth $1.825MM, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (Twitter link).  There was some speculation that Severino could be a non-tender candidate, though he has posted pretty decent numbers over two seasons as Baltimore’s primary catcher.  Severino is controllable through the 2023 season.
  • The Nationals and right-hander Joe Ross agreed to a one-year, $1.5MM contract, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.  This is a match of the salary Ross and the Nats had agreed on for the 2020 season, but Ross decided to opt out back in June.  This was Ross’ third year of arbitration eligibility, and is now expected to return and compete for a job in Washington’s rotation in 2021.
  • The Royals agreed to one-year deals with righties Jesse Hahn and Jakob Junis and outfielder Franchy Cordero, according to Feinsand and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links).  Hahn signed for $1.75MM in guaranteed money with another $350K available in incentives.  Junis will rake in $1.7MM. Cordero will earn $800K in his first arbitration-eligible year.

Earlier Agreements

  • The Athletics and righty Burch Smith agreed to a one-year deal worth $705K, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.  The 30-year-old Smith allowed three runs on seven hits and a walk with 13 strikeouts in 12 2/3 frames with the A’s in 2020. That was a solid showing for Smith to carry into his first trip through the arb process, though he carried a career 6.57 ERA in 135 1/3 frames into the 2020 season. The A’s can control Smith through 2023.
  • The Rockies agreed to a one-year, $1.2MM deal with catcher Elias Diaz, per Nightengale (Twitter link). The contract contains another $300K in available incentives.  The 30-year-old looked like a clear non-tender candidate after posting an ugly .235/.288/.353 slash with lackluster framing marks and just a 1-for-8 effort in throwing out base thieves, but the Rockies must remain hopeful he can return to his 2018 level of performance. Diaz is controllable through the 2022 season via arbitration.
  • Right-hander Jacob Barnes and the Mets agreed to a one-year deal worth $750K, Nightengale tweets. Barnes, claimed off waivers back in October, was a quality reliever in Milwaukee from 2016-18 but has seen his results crater over the past two seasons. From 2019-20, he’s posted a 6.75 ERA over 50 2/3 innings. Barnes has averaged 10 strikeouts per nine frames in that time but also averaged 4.6 walks and 1.42 homers as well. Barnes is controllable through 2022.

Orioles Claim Chris Shaw, Release Renato Nunez, Designate Thomas Eshelman

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The Orioles announced Wednesday that they’ve claimed first baseman/outfielder Chris Shaw off waivers from the Giants. Right-hander Thomas Eshelman was designated for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Additionally, the O’s revealed that corner infielder/designated hitter Renato Nunez, whom they designated for assignment last Friday, went unclaimed on waivers and has been released.

Shaw, 26, long seemed like a change-of-scenery candidate for the Giants. The former No. 31 overall draft pick has a productive .280/.328/.538 slash in more than 1000 Triple-A plate appearances, but he’s also struck out in 30 percent of his plate appearances there. He made his big league debut in 2018 but still only has 82 plate appearances, as the new-look Giants front office never seemed as bullish on Shaw as the prior regime that drafted him. Shaw was initially omitted from San Francisco’s 60-man player pool this season, and although he was later added, he never got called up to the big leagues. With the O’s, his left-handed bat will get some looks at first base, in the outfield corners and at designated hitter.

The release of Nunez in many ways opens a spot for Shaw to get an opportunity in Baltimore. While Orioles fans were alarmed to see Nunez, who slugged 43 home runs in just over 800 plate appearances from 2019-20, designated for assignment last week, the move wasn’t necessarily a shock.

Nunez has struggled to get on base even while showing considerable power, and he’s a below-average defender at both infield corners. The market for OBP-challenged, defensively limited sluggers has dried up considerably in recent years, and Nunez was due a raise in arbitration. That he went unclaimed speaks to the fact that his one-dimensional skill set isn’t one that’s valued highly around the game at the moment.

As for the 26-year-old Eshelman, he gave the Orioles an aesthetically pleasing 3.89 ERA in 34 2/3 innings this past season, but that mark was likely misleading. Eshelman managed just 16 strikeouts in that time, and while many low-strikeout arms can mitigate damage by keeping the ball on the ground, his 35.9 percent grounder rate makes him a fairly extreme fly-ball pitcher.

Eshelman has just 38 strikeouts in 70 2/3 career innings, and he’s allowed 19 home runs in that time as well — a rate of 2.42 per nine innings pitched. He has a decent minor league track record, but that lack of missed bats and penchant for serving up the long ball has led to a career 5.22 ERA and even higher 6.56 FIP. The Orioles will have a week to trade Eshelman, run him through outright waivers or release him.

Yasiel Puig Looking To Return To Majors In 2021

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8:54pm: Puig is already generating MLB interest, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, who writes that “the Astros, Orioles and Red Sox are among the teams that have Puig on their radar.”

3:53pm: After a season out of baseball, free-agent outfielder Yasiel Puig has hired Rachel Luba as his new agent, Luba announced on Twitter. That suggests Puig is looking to return to the pro ranks in 2021.

The past year has not gone according to plan for Puig, who was a fairly hyped free agent last offseason. Puig was unable to reach a deal until he finally agreed to a contract with the Braves in the middle of July, but that pact fell apart almost immediately. The soon-to-be 30-year-old tested positive for COVID-19 just a couple of days after the Braves deal, which caused the team to call off the signing. For the most part, it has been radio silence on Puig since then.

Last time he took the field, in 2019, Puig batted .267/.327/.458 (101 wRC+) with 24 home runs and 19 stolen bases over 611 plate appearances between the Reds and Indians. While his counting stats were solid, it was still a relatively disappointing year for a player who has typically been a well-above-average hitter throughout his career. Also a former Dodger, Puig has slashed .277/.348/.475 (124 wRC+) during his major league tenure. The hope for Puig is that he’ll return to that form if he does get back to the bigs in 2021. For now, he’s one of the most established and recognizable outfielders on the open market.

Orioles Designate Renato Nunez For Assignment

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The Orioles are designating infielder Renato Núñez for assignment, per various reporters (including Joe Trezza of MLB.com). Baltimore is also adding six players to the 40-man roster in advance of tonight’s deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 draft: infielder Rylan Bannon, outfielder Yusniel Diaz, right-handers Michael Baumann and Isaac Mattson and left-handers Zac Lowther and Alexander Wells.

Some may be surprised to see the Orioles letting go of Núñez. The 26-year-old has been an everyday player for Baltimore over the past two seasons, slugging .469 and hitting 43 home runs in 815 plate appearances. However, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored at length in previewing the Orioles’ offseason, Núñez indeed looked like a potential non-tender candidate. Núnez’s relatively low walk rates have led to a lackluster .314 on-base percentage over the past two years. He’s not well-regarded as a defender at third base, either. Overall, he’s only been worth around one win above replacement the past two seasons combined in the estimation of both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.

Evidently, Baltimore decided Núñez’s on-base and defensive deficiencies outweighed the power potential he brings, particularly as he enters arbitration for the first time. Núñez is projected for a salary in the $2.1MM – $3.9MM range this offseason, and the Orioles were clearly prepared to non-tender him prior to the December 2 deadline. With that settled, there’s little reason to keep Núñez on the 40-man roster beyond today’s Rule 5 protection deadline.

It’s still possible the O’s find a trade partner involving Núñez in the coming days. He does have some appeal as a potential 1B/DH option and hit better in 2020 than he had in 2019. If another team were to acquire Núñez, they could control him through arbitration for the next four seasons.

Orioles Receive Miguel Padilla To Complete Hector Velázquez Trade

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12:18 pm: The Orioles will receive right-hander Miguel Padilla from the Astros, the Orioles announced. Per their announcement on Twitter: “Padilla, 18, was originally signed by the Astros on November 26, 2018, as an International free agent out of Carora, Venezuela. He appeared in 19 games for the DSL Astros in 2019, pitching to a 4-1 record with a 2.08 ERA (6 ER/26.0 IP) and 26 strikeouts.“ As noted below, the move isn’t likely to affect the Orioles’ 40-man roster.

7:26 am: The Orioles are close to completing a July 29th trade that sent Hector Velázquez to the Astros for a player to be named later, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.

The funny thing about this trade is that Velázquez never appeared in a game for the Orioles, and he hasn’t appeared in a game for the Astros either. The Orioles claimed Velázquez off waivers from the Red Sox in March. He was part of the O’s original 60-man player pool, though he had been outrighted off their 40-man roster just before Opening Day.

The trade was a depth move for the Astros, but Velázquez never got the call. Still, they’ll be sending something back to Baltimore in the near future. The deal still makes some sense for Houston, as with just 2.017 days of service time, the Astros now control the right-hander’s rights for another four seasons.

In parts of three seasons with the Red Sox, Velazquez showed flashes of promise, including a 3.18 ERA over 85 innings during the Red Sox’ 2018 championship season. The swingman has never produced thick-enough strikeout rates, however, and when his walk rate rose from 2.8 BB/9 in 2018 to 4.5 BB/9 in 2019, his ERA rose with it to a 5.43 ERA. By Fielding Independent Pitching, however, his 2018 season (4.15 FIP) was neither as good as it seemed, nor was his 2019 season (4.74 FIP) quite as bad as it seemed. He’ll be an option for Houston’s bullpen in 2021.

Both teams are trying to finalize their 40-man roster additions before Friday, at which point any players eligible for December’s Rule 5 draft will be left unprotected. It’s likely that Baltimore’ return won’t feature a player in that field, but it’s certainly possible, in which case Baltimore would surely prefer a resolution in the coming days.

Transaction Retrospection: The Mike Yastrzemski Trade

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During his first offseason leading the Giants, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi aggressively remade the back half of the 40-man roster. Among that spate of transactions was the unheralded acquisition of outfielder Mike Yastrzemski in a spring training swap with the Orioles.

In March 2019, San Francisco picked up Yastrzemski in exchange for right-hander Tyler Herb. Then 28 years old, Yastrzemski was a former 14th-round pick who had yet to play a major league game. To the extent that there was any fanfare surrounding his acquisition, it had much more to do with his relation to Carl Yastrzemski than to his play.

The deal now looks like a masterstroke. Over his first 636 MLB plate appearances, Yastrzemski has put up a fantastic .281/.357/.535 slash (135 wRC+) and hit 31 home runs. He has been worth about five wins above replacement over the equivalent of one full season. The left-handed hitter earned an eighth-place finish in NL MVP voting this past season thanks to a .297/.400/.568 line.

Herb, on the other hand, didn’t reach the majors during his two years in the Baltimore organization. The 28-year-old elected minor-league free agency earlier this month, per Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America.

Even if Yastrzemski takes a bit of a step back from his star-level production, he at least looks like an above-average regular. His late-career breakout is another reminder that even the lowest-profile transactions have some chance of being impactful.

Latest On Trey Mancini

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NOVEMBER 12: In yet further good news, Mancini says that he remains cancer-free two months after wrapping up his chemotherapy regimen. As MLB.com’s Joe Trezza was among those to report, Mancini made clear that he intends to be ready to play on Opening Day in 2021.

We’ll all be rooting for continued progress for the outfielder, who says he’s well enough that all of his “attention is turned back toward baseball.” When last he played competitively, in the 2019 season, Mancini ripped 35 home runs and turned in a .291/.364/.535 batting line over 679 plate appearances.

NOVEMBER 6: Orioles slugger Trey Mancini posted a video on Instagram of himself taking swings in a batting cage Wednesday, as noted by Joe Trezza of MLB.com. He’s been hitting been since mid-October, Mancini told Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.

The 28-year-old missed the entire 2020 season after being diagnosed with a malignant tumor in his colon in March. Eight months later, it seems he’s thankfully on track for a more-or-less normal offseason. “I’ve been doing full workouts and everything. I’m not really taking it easier, I’m just making sure I’m taking long enough breaks and things like that. But I’m full tilt, doing normal workouts,” Mancini said (via Kubatko). He went on to note that getting his mechanics back as a hitter clicked pretty quickly, comparing it to riding a bike.

The Orioles have long expected Mancini to return to the team in 2021, but it’s doubtless still welcome news his recovery is progressing smoothly. In addition to being one of Baltimore’s best players, the well-respected Mancini should be a boon to the O’s young clubhouse. “I’m not even lying when I say this: If spring training started today, I’d be good to go,” Mancini stated.

Looking At The Orioles' Rule 5 Possibilities

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  • With five open spots on their 40-man roster, the Orioles have some room to maneuver before November 20, when they must set their 40-man in advance of December’s Rule 5 Draft.  The Baltimore Sun’s Nathan Ruiz looks at eight eligible prospects the O’s might be looking to protect in the draft, assuming the Orioles use all five open roster spots on their own players and not any external additions or minor leaguers they might themselves draft out of another team’s system.

Braves, Orioles Complete Tommy Milone Trade

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The Braves acquired left-hander Tommy Milone from the Orioles for two players to be named later prior to the Aug. 31 deadline. A little over two months after the fact, those players’ identities are now known. The Orioles are getting infielders AJ Graffanino and Greg Cullen, per an announcement from the Braves.

AJ Graffanino, the son of former major league infielder Tony Graffanino, joined the Braves as an eighth-round pick in 2018. He has since ascended to Single-A ball, where he slashed .301/.333/.378 in 153 plate appearances during his draft year. MLB.com ranked the 23-year-old as the Braves’ No. 23 prospect before the trade, writing that “he has very good hands and a strong arm suited for shortstop.” However, with just one professional home run so far, it’s unclear how much of an offensive impact Graffanino will make in the majors.

Cullen entered the pros in the same draft class as Graffanino as a 15th-round pick. He was not a high-ranked Braves prospect, but Cullen, also 23, did slash .270/.393/.401 (138 wRC+) with nine homers in 568 PA in Single-A ball in 2019.

However these prospects turn out, the Milone acquisition didn’t go as planned for the Braves. The soft-tossing veteran posted a disastrous 14.90 ERA in 9 2/3 innings with Atlanta. Between the two teams, the now-free agent logged a 6.69 ERA/4.76 FIP over 39 frames in 2020, though he did record excellent strikeout and walk numbers (9.23 K/9, 1.38 BB/9).

Starting Pitching Notes: Kluber, Nats, Orioles

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Agent B.B. Abbott tells MLB.com’s Jon Morosi that right-hander Corey Kluber has been cleared to begin a throwing program and is expected to progress to throwing off a mound early next month (Twitter link). That timeline provides a glimpse into where Kluber is at in his rehab from the Grade 2 teres major strain that limited him to just one inning with the Rangers this past season. It stands to reason that interested clubs may prefer to see how Kluber handles that next critical step before committing a guaranteed contract to him. A broken forearm and a strained oblique muscle held Kluber to 35 2/3 innings in 2019, so he’s tossed just 36 2/3 frames over the past two seasons. However, in his last full season, the 34-year-old Kluber finished third in AL Cy Young voting.

Some notes on the market for starting pitching…

  • The Orioles are still in the midst of a long rebuild, but GM Mike Elias told reporters this week that he plans to look at the free-agent market for rotation options (link via Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com). “I definitely think we’re going to be signing some starting pitchers,” Elias said. “You can never have enough.” Elias downplayed the magnitude of any potential signing, cautioning that any such moves could be on major league or minor league deals. Baltimore went the latter route last winter when inking Tommy Milone and Wade LeBlanc to soak up some innings, but that duo is gone — as is righty Asher Wojciechowski. The Orioles already have some young arms knocking on the door to potential rotation spots, headlined by left-hander Keegan Akin, but there’s so much uncertainty on the staff that it wouldn’t be a surprise to see multiple arms brought into the fold. “There will be additional competition in camp,” said Elias.
  • While many clubs are content to stay in-house to round out the back of their rotations, the Nationals’ history suggests that they’ll spend to add a No. 4 starter behind Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin, writes Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. That fourth spot in the rotation was held down by Anibal Sanchez in 2019-20 but now looks vacant once again after Sanchez’s 2021 option was unsurprisingly declined. While the Nats might not break the bank  to bring in a veteran, there’s a rather robust market for fourth and fifth starter types, including a host of high-profile names seeking bouncebacks from poor 2020 showings. Zuckerman notes that southpaw Robbie Ray, one such starter, was initially a Nationals draft pick and a prospect that GM Mike Rizzo had a difficult time trading in the Doug Fister swap with the Tigers back in 2013. As seen on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent list, Ray is one of many options for clubs seeking rotation help.
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