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Orioles To Sign Jordan Lyles

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The Orioles are in agreement with right-hander Jordan Lyles on a one-year, $7MM guarantee with a 2023 club option, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). The deal is pending a physical, which is expected to take place after the work stoppage.  Lyles is represented by Ballengee Group.

If the Lyles deal is completed, it will mark the Orioles’ largest free agent expenditure since Mike Elias was hired as Executive Vice President and General Manager three years ago.  Elias’ previous largest free agency outlay had been a $3MM deal for Jose Iglesias.  Adding veteran Major League talent has not been a priority during Elias’ rebuild.  In 2022, Lyles and Trey Mancini figure to be the only Orioles to be paid as much as $7MM.  The Orioles have run a bottom-four payroll for the entirety of Elias’ tenure.

Drafted 38th overall by the Astros out of a South Carolina high school in 2008, Lyles peaked as a top 50 prospect prior to the 2011 season – around the time Elias moved from the Cardinals to the Astros with fellow executive Jeff Luhnow.  Luhnow ended up trading Lyles to the Rockies for Dexter Fowler in 2013.

Lyles, 31, posted a 5.15 ERA, 19 K%, 7.3 BB%, and 37.6% groundball rate in 180 innings for the Rangers this year.  There wasn’t much to like about Lyles’ season other than his taking the ball 30 times, which is a big need for an Orioles rotation with no reliable members after John Means.  After a decent 2019 season for the Pirates and Brewers, the Rangers gave Lyles a two-year, $16MM contract.  The righty struggled throughout his time in Texas.

Given that lack of success, Lyles’ contract is a bit higher than you might expect.  Perhaps that’s the cost of luring a pitcher to one of the game’s worst teams.  Lyles received more than Rich Hill or Dylan Bundy ($5MM), the same as Michael Wacha, and only $1MM less than Corey Kluber.  If the contract is completed, he’ll join Means and perhaps Bruce Zimmermann in the rotation with a cast of pitchers competing for remaining spots – unless Means is traded post-lockout.  Prize prospects Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall should debut at some point during 2022, having both reached Double-A in ’21.

Outrights: Scrubb, de Geus, Martin, Anderson

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As a busy evening of contract tendering (and non-tendering) draws to a close, some players find themselves in a new position of being outrighted off their team’s 40-man roster. The following players cleared waivers and remain with one of their organization’s minor league affiliates:

  • Right-handed Astros reliever Andre Scrubb has been outrighted to Triple-A Sugar Land. Scrubb posted a shiny 1.90 ERA across 23 innings last season despite a huge 19.6% walk rate. His ERA regressed to 5.03 in a similar sample size of 19 innings, while his home run rate ballooned to nearly double the league average.
  • Arizona infielder Andrew Young and right-handed pitcher Brett de Geus  are ticketed for Double-A Amarillo and Triple-A Reno, respectively. Young demonstrated strong power numbers in limited action but struck out an untenable 43.3% of the time. The 24-year-old de Geus was a Rule 5 pick who was thrown into the fire by both the Rangers and Diamondbacks this season, but will return to the minors for additional seasoning after recently being designated for assignment.
  • Baltimore shortstop Richie Martin is headed to Triple-A Norfolk following a sub-replacement level season as an Oriole. The 26-year-old Martin has shown some offensive prowess at Double-A in the past, but for now he’ll look to establish himself as a plus hitter at Triple-A for the first time.
  • Blue Jays right-hander Shaun Anderson is on his way to Triple-A Buffalo after a busy season that saw him pitch for three big league teams, only to be claimed by Toronto in mid-November. Anderson didn’t have much go right in his 23 innings this year, but has consistently been capable of 3-something ERAs in the minor leagues as a starter or reliever.

Orioles Sign Rougned Odor To Major League Deal

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The Orioles announced agreement with infielder Rougned Odor on a major league contract for 2022. Odor is a client of Beverly Hills Sports Council. Baltimore’s 40-man roster now sits at 38.

It has now been a few seasons since Odor was a productive regular. After breaking into the majors with the Rangers in his early 20’s, Odor posted a couple solid seasons. That led Texas to strike on an early-career $49.5MM extension in March 2017, but his production took a downturn almost immediately thereafter. The left-handed hitter slumped to a .204/.252/.397 line that season. He improved upon that lowly output in the following years, but Odor has still been a below-average offensive player in each of the past four years.

Going back to the start of the 2018 campaign, Odor owns a .216/.291/.418 line. That’s come with worse than average strikeout and walk rates (27.8% and 7.9%, respectively), sapping much of his overall value. The Yankees acquired Odor from Texas this past spring, hoping that a move to the Bronx would reinvigorate his lefty bat.

While Odor did hit 15 homers in 361 plate appearances in pinstripes, he managed just a .202/.286/.379 line altogether. New York designated him for assignment and released him earlier this month to clear roster space for prospects to be added before the Rule 5 draft.

Odor is still just 27 years old (28 in February). He’s young enough that teams can continue to hold out hope he may yet find his stride offensively, but it’s been quite some time since he was a capable everyday player. There’s no financial risk for the O’s in integrating him into the infield mix, though. Under the terms of the Rangers – Yankees swap, Texas remains on the hook for almost all of the $12.3MM in guaranteed money remaining on his deal. Baltimore will only be responsible for the league minimum salary.

Dan Connolly of the Athletic first reported the Orioles were nearing agreement with Odor on a big league deal.

Tender Deadline Signings: 11/30/21

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With the deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players looming tonight at 8pm ET — the MLBPA and MLB jointly agreed to move the deadline up a couple days due to the looming expiration of the collective bargaining agreement — we’ll likely see a slew of arbitration-eligible players signing one-year deals.

It’s commonplace for a large batch of players to sign deals in the hours leading up to the tender deadline. “Pre-tender” deals of this nature often fall shy of projections due to the fact that teams use the looming threat of a non-tender to enhance their leverage. Arbitration contracts at this juncture are often take-it-or-leave-it propositions, with the “leave it” end of that arrangement resulting in the player being cut loose. Given the widely expected lockout, there could be more incentive than usual for borderline non-tender candidates to take those offers rather than being cast out into free agency just hours before a transaction freeze is implemented.

As a reminder, arbitration contracts are not fully guaranteed. In a typical year, a team can cut a player on an arb contract at any point before the halfway point in Spring Training and only be responsible for 30 days’ termination pay (about one-sixth of the contract). Releasing a player in the second half of Spring Training bumps the termination pay to 45 days of his prorated salary.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for each team’s arbitration-eligible players last month, although for many of the players listed below, this isn’t so much avoiding arbitration as it is avoiding a non-tender. Here’s a look at today’s agreements…

  • The Yankees have agreed to deals with infielder Gio Urshela and right-hander Domingo German, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter links). Urshela will make $6.55MM, while German has agreed to a $1.75MM deal. Urshela has two seasons of control remaining; German is controllable for three years. Urshela is coming off a .267/.301/.419 showing while playing third base and shortstop. German tossed 98 1/3 innings of 4.58 ERA ball.
  • The Twins have signed three arbitration-eligible pitchers, per reports from Feinsand and Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (on Twitter). Right-hander Jharel Cotton signed for $700K, reliever Caleb Thielbar lands $1.3MM and reliever Tyler Duffey signs for $3.8MM. Thielbar and Duffey were both productive members of the Minnesota relief corps in 2021. Cotton was recently claimed off waivers from the Rangers.
  • The Giants have agreed to terms with outfielder Austin Slater on a $1.85MM deal, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). The 28-year-old (29 next month) appeared at all three spots on the grass while hitting .241/.320/.423 over 306 plate appearances in 2021.
  • Reliever Emilio Pagan and the Padres have agreed on a $2.3MM deal, reports Rosenthal (on Twitter). The 30-year-old worked 63 1/3 innings of 4.83 ERA/3.93 SIERA ball this past season.
  • The Diamondbacks agreed to a $2MM deal with left-hander Caleb Smith, reports Zach Buchanan of the Athletic (via Twitter). The 30-year-old posted a 4.83 ERA/4.68 SIERA across 113 2/3 innings in a swing capacity in 2021.

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Nationals Claim Lucius Fox

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The Nationals have claimed infielder Lucius Fox off waivers from the Orioles, per announcements from both clubs. Baltimore had claimed Fox off waivers from the Royals earlier this month.

Fox, 24, was a big-time international signing by the Giants out of the Bahamas back in the 2015-16 international signing period. Signed to a $6MM bonus, he was viewed as a gifted up-the-middle defender with a promising hit tool but a lack of power. San Francisco clearly wasn’t the only club enamored of his skill set, as Fox has been included in a couple of fairly notable trades — going from San Francisco to Tampa Bay in the Evan Longoria swap and from the Rays to the Royals in exchange for Brett Phillips.

To this point in his career, Fox has gotten on base at a respectable clip but has indeed demonstrated a lack of power. In five minor league seasons, he’s posted a .244/.339/.332 batting line — never topping five home runs or 20 doubles in a given season. Scouting reports, including this one from FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen, note that Fox has plus speed and strong defensive tools but is still inconsistent with the glove.

Fox will vie for a spot in a fairly wide-open Nationals infield mix next spring, where Alcides Escobar, Luis Garcia and Carter Kieboom look like the incumbent options at shortstop, second base and third base, respectively. That said, Fox also has a minor league option remaining, so if he lasts on the 40-man roster through the remainder of the offseason, he can be sent to Triple-A without first needing to pass through waivers.

Orioles Release Brooks Kriske

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The Orioles have released right-handed pitcher Brooks Kriske, according to the MLB.com transactions tracker. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports that he could be interested in an opportunity with a foreign professional club.

Kriske, who turns 28 in February, was selected by the Yankees in the sixth round of the 2016 draft. He climbed his way up the ranks of the minors and eventually made his MLB debut in 2020. However, he’s been given very limited opportunities at the big league level thus far, only logging 15 innings in the past two seasons combined. He has an unsightly 14.40 ERA in that small sample, but has been much better in the minors.

At Triple-A this year, between the Yankees’ and Orioles’ systems, he threw 29 1/3 innings with an ERA of 3.68, along with a hefty strikeout rate of 37.4%, but a lofty walk rate of 12.2%. The Orioles claimed him on waivers from the Yankees in September, but he wasn’t able to hold onto his roster spot through the winter. He is still young and has an option year remaining, which could give him some appeal to other clubs as a depth signing.

The release of Kriske means Baltimore now has 39 players on their 40-man roster, allowing them to potentially use that open spot in the Rule 5 draft. The rebuilding Orioles have been quite active in recent Rule 5 drafts, making three selections in 2017, one in 2018 and then two selections in both 2019 and 2020. The draft is scheduled to take place December 9, but could be delayed by the lockout and transaction freeze that are expected to follow the expiration of the CBA on December 1.

Orioles Willing To Listen To Trade Offers On Cedric Mullins

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The Orioles have shown a willingness to listen to trade offers on center fielder Cedric Mullins, reports Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link). The 27-year-old is coming off a 2021 campaign in which he was MLB’s only 30-homer, 30-stolen base player.

Mullins entered the season as an unestablished player, with just a .225/.290/.342 line across 418 plate appearances between 2018-20. He’d been regarded as a solid but not elite prospect, and it wasn’t clear entering 2021 that Mullins projected as a long-term regular, either in Baltimore or anyone else. Perhaps no one around the league has raised their stock more over the past eight months, though, as Mullins broke through with an All-Star showing that garnered him some down ballot MVP support.

The North Carolina native played in 159 games and tallied 675 plate appearances, mashing at a .291/.360/.518 clip. That’s 36 percentage points above the league average by measure of wRC+, and Mullins added further value on the basepaths. In addition to his Silver Slugger winning offense, he was credited with ten Outs Above Average by Statcast in nearly 1300 innings in center field. Defensive Runs Saved wasn’t as bullish on his outfield work, but it’s likely most clubs around the league will view Mullins as an average or better gloveman in center.

There’s no question he’ll be in high demand after that breakout campaign, although that doesn’t guarantee he’ll wind up on the move. There’s a difference between the O’s being willing to hear out offers on Mullins versus actively attempting to move him, and there’s no indication they’re doing the latter. Heyman suggests Baltimore has placed an “extremely high” asking price in talks, no surprise since there’s no pressing incentive for the Orioles to give the Campbell University product up.

Mullins only has between two and three years of major league service time. Barring changes to the service structure in the next collective bargaining agreement, he’ll remain under club control through the end of the 2025 season. Mullins hasn’t even yet qualified for arbitration, so he’ll play next season on a salary just above the league minimum. As with starter John Means — on whom the O’s are also reportedly fielding offers — general manager Mike Elias and his staff can set a high asking price and hold onto the player if no other clubs are willing to meet it. The ask on Mullins figures to be even a fair bit loftier than that on Means, considering that Mullins would seem to have less injury risk and comes with an additional year of contractual control.

Broadly speaking, a willingness to discuss Mullins in trade shouldn’t seem out of the ordinary. Very few players around the league would be absolutely untouchable in trade talks, since front offices have a responsibility to consider all avenues through which they can improve their club. That’s particularly true in the case of a rebuilding organization like the Orioles that stands little chance of competing in 2022 and could have its work cut for out it to contend for a playoff spot in 2023.

That said, the Orioles surely expect to contend before Mullins reaches free agency in 2025-26. Even coming out of a massive rebuild, they’ll need some core players to anchor their next competitive club. Teams understandably covet controllable, star position players in particular. That’ll lead to plenty of strong offers, but it also reduces the Orioles’ urgency to pull the trigger on any deal, since Mullins looks to be precisely the kind of player around whom a franchise can build.

Orioles Claim Cionel Perez

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The Orioles have claimed lefty Cionel Perez off waivers from the Reds, per a team announcement. Baltimore’s 40-man roster is now full.

Perez, 25, was a prominent international signing out of Cuba by the Astros back in 2016, when current Orioles GM Mike Elias was an assistant GM in Houston. Cincinnati acquired him from Houston this past January, and he went on to tally 24 big league innings with a 6.38 ERA with a 22.5% strikeout rate, an 18.6% walk rate and a 51.5% ground-ball rate at the MLB level. In 50 2/3 innings between the Reds and the Astros, Perez has a 6.04 ERA.

While he’s worked exclusively as a reliever in the Majors, Perez has split his time between the rotation and the bullpen in the minors. He has a 4.46 ERA with a 24.5% strikeout rate and 11.7% walk rate in 82 2/3 innings of Triple-A ball, and although that walk rate is rather bloated, Perez’s 52% grounder rate in Triple-A is strong. He was particularly sharp in Triple-A Louisville this past season, notching a 3.26 ERA and 41-to-13 K/BB ratio in 30 1/3 innings of relief.

Perez is out of minor league options, so if he makes it through the offseason on Baltimore’s 40-man roster, have to either break camp with the Orioles or else be exposed to waivers a second time.

Orioles Reportedly Discussing John Means In Trade Talks

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As  the Orioles prepare to enter what will be the fourth season of a full-scale rebuild, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports that they’re “dangling” lefty John Means in trades in talks with other clubs (Twitter link).

Means, 28, is the lone established starter on the Orioles’ roster. Over the past three seasons, he’s pitched to a 3.73 ERA through 345 1/3 innings out of the Baltimore rotation. Means is the only pitcher who’s started more than 31 games for the O’s over the past three seasons (63), and of the 18 pitchers to make at least seven starts in that time he’s one of just three with an ERA south of 5.00. (Andrew Cashner and Dylan Bundy, no longer with the club, are the only others.)

Dating back to 2019, Means’ 5.1% walk rate is the sixth-lowest among all pitchers with at least 300 innings. His strikeout rate sat at 19% in 2019 but has jumped to 23% in 2020-21, bringing that roughly in line with the big league average. Home runs have been an issue for Means, who has yielded 1.69 big flies per nine frames. Being an extreme fly-ball pitcher at the homer-friendly Camden Yards can’t help the matter, but Means has struggled with the long ball on the road as well.

The 2021 season looked to be something of a breakout showing for Means early on, before a shoulder injury sidelined him for a portion of the year. The lefty pitched to a 2.05 ERA through his first 11 starts, headlined by a 12-strikeout no-hitter (and near perfect game) against the Mariners on May 5. Means faced just five hitters in his 12th start of the season before departing with a shoulder strain that would sideline him for more than six weeks.

There was no appreciable change in Means’ velocity upon returning from that IL stint — 92.9 mph average fastball pre-injury; 92.8 mph post-injury — but the southpaw yielded a 4.88 ERA with a diminished strikeout rate in 14 starts to close out the season, finishing out the year  with a seven-run drubbing at the hands of the Blue Jays.

With three-plus years of service time now under his belt, Means is arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $3.1MM salary for Means in his first trip through the arb process. He’d be eligible for further raises upon that salary in each of the next two offseasons before reaching free agency following the 2024 season.

Means’ first notable salary increase of his career surely plays a role in any willingness to trade him, but it should be noted that there’s no reason that salary should cause payroll issues in Baltimore. The Orioles don’t have a single guaranteed contract on their 2022 roster, with the lone set cost coming via the dead money they owe to Chris Davis following his retirement. Even with that sum, Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects a payroll around $56MM, which would rank among the lowest in baseball. Potential trades of Means, Trey Mancini (projected $7.9MM salary), Anthony Santander ($3.7MM), etc. would further drop that figure.

With three years of affordable club control remaining, Means ought to command a strong return even with this past season’s shoulder injury and subsequent scuffles. That said, if the Orioles actually make the leap and trade their lone rotation lock, the 2022 staff could look quite grisly — at least early on. Top pitching prospects Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall are nearing big league readiness, but the immediate rotation options behind Means have yet to find much in the way of MLB success. Jorge Lopez, Bruce Zimmermann, Keegan Akin, Zac Lowther, Dean Kremer and Spenser Watkins have all started big league games, but Zimmermann’s 5.30 ERA is the best of the group.

The Orioles could, of course, bring in a veteran or two on a low-cost deal in free agency, but they haven’t been willing to spend on veteran starters since their rebuild began. They’ve handed out a few minor league deals for veteran arms (Matt Harvey, Tommy Milone, Wade LeBlanc, Felix Hernandez), but the only pitcher given a guaranteed contract under GM Mike Elias was an $800K deal to Nate Karns in Feb. 2019.

Organizational Notes: Red Sox, Groopman, Orioles, Murray

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Mike Groopman is joining the Red Sox organization as an assistant general manager, per Chad Jennings and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Groopman was previously with the Brewers as VP of International Scouting and Player Personnel.

After short stints with the Reds and Mets, Groopman was hired by the Royals in 2008 and ended up staying for a decade, before moving to Milwaukee in 2017. When he joined Kansas City, the club was in the middle of a years-long tank job that ultimately proved fruitful, as they had four consecutive seasons of .500 or above from 2013 to 2016, which included back-to-back trips to the World Series, losing to the Giants in 2014 but then defeating the Mets in 2015. Since Groopman came to the Brewers, they have also had a nice run of success, having just made the postseason for a fourth straight year.

Of course, front offices are comprised of dozens of employees and no individual can take full responsibility for a club’s successes or failures. Still, the fact that Groopman has been given this new job and new title shows that his work is well regarded in the industry.

Moving across the AL East, Collin Murray will be joining the Orioles as a development coach, he himself announced on Twitter. Over the past few years, Murray has worked with some colleges, in addition to jobs with the Marlins, Angels and Tigers.

Development is going to be extremely important for the Orioles over the next few years. They are currently bottom feeders in a stacked AL East, with the other four teams each logging at least 91 wins in 2021, compared to the 52 notched by the Orioles. However, their farm system is held in high esteem by prospect evaluators, with FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline ranking theirs as the best in the league, and Baseball America slotting them second behind the Mariners. Helping those talented youngsters blossom into productive major leaguers will be extremely important for them to gain ground on their rivals and get back into contention.

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