Cedric Mullins of the Baltimore Orioles, baseball’s top power-speed threat in 2021, opened up in a video (Twitter link) that dropped today about some previously private health struggles with Crohn’s disease. The 27-year-old details how teammate Trey Mancini’s abrupt colon cancer diagnosis before the 2020 season helped him pay more attention to his own health woes.
Orioles Rumors
Quick Hits: Assistant GMs, Kjerstad, 2022 Draft
There’s plenty of ambition to be found within baseball’s front offices, and yet for an increasing number of executives, remaining in a secondary role is a nice place to be, The Athletic’s Brittany Ghiroli and Eno Sarris write. Whether in an assistant GM role or as a general manager working under a president of baseball operations, these “top lieutenant” positions tend to involve more job security, increased pay in recent years as teams try to prevent other clubs from poaching employees, and a lot less public pressure than being the head of a baseball ops department. As one former GM put it, “there’s so much scrutiny on it that people are like, ’Screw it, I’m happy making a nice living and can be around my kids and go out to dinner without being recognized.’ ”
On the other hand, if there is relatively less movement amongst front office personnel, that can also lead to a stagnation of hiring practices. This makes it harder for minority candidates to get opportunities for a notable front office position, let alone consideration for a PBO or GM job. As White Sox executive VP Kenny Williams has observed, teams are increasingly hiring front office personnel lacking in baseball-related experience, and yet that same lack of experience is often cited as a reason why women or minority candidates aren’t given promotions to larger roles.
More from around the baseball world…
- Heston Kjerstad might receive an invitation to the Orioles’ big league Spring Training camp, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. It is a welcome bit of good news for Kjerstad, who is now fully recovered from the myocarditis that has thus far kept the second overall pick of the 2020 draft from beginning his professional career. Kjerstad has gotten in some work at Orioles minicamps and in the fall instructional league, with the early returns against live pitching already impressing team coaches and evaluators.
- Speaking of high draft picks, the top of the 2022 draft class figures to be heavy with position players, with MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis predicting that “at least eight hitters will go in the first 10 selections.” This seems due to both a lack of standout college pitchers and an above-average group of hitters at both the collegiate and prep levels. High schoolers Druw Jones (son of former Braves star Andruw Jones) and Termarr Johnson rate particularly well with Callis, who puts Jones and Johnson behind only Bobby Witt Jr. as the best position player prospects of the 2019-22 draft classes.
Latest On Camden Yards
- Renovations to Camden Yards’ left field area are intended to make the ballpark a little less treacherous for Orioles pitchers, and also to any future pitchers the team might be looking to eventually sign. As GM Mike Elias told The Athletic’s Dan Connolly and other reporters, the Orioles’ ability to attract free agent pitchers was “definitely a significant factor in” the decision to renovate. “The conditions here have been very extreme, towards the very most extreme in the league….It has been the case for decades and part of having a winning program is the ability to recruit free-agent pitchers, and that has been a historical challenge for this franchise,” Elias said. While Connolly doesn’t believe the team will ever be a true destination for ace-level free agent hurlers, changing the dimensions might at least help the O’s land some mid-level veterans or bounce-back candidates, who might’ve been normally wary about working at such a hitter-friendly venue.
Details On The Orioles’ Signing Of Cesar Prieto
While most members of the 2021-22 international signing class are teenagers who are years away from the major leagues, 22-year-old infielder Cesar Prieto could potentially help the Orioles as early as this season. It makes Prieto a particularly intriguing player to watch from this signing period, as noted in separate pieces by The Baltimore Sun’s Nathan Ruiz and MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko.
Prieto defected to the United States from Cuba last May, and MLB declared him eligible to sign only in November. This left Prieto in a bit of a tough spot heading into the January 15 signing period, as since most teams had already committed most of the money in their bonus pools, the $650K Prieto received from the Orioles counts as something of a bargain for a player with his experience and track record.
Since the money was relatively tight across the board, however, the O’s tried to stand out from the field in other ways. Orioles senior director of international scouting Koby Perez told media that he and GM Mike Elias personally visited Prieto to pitch him on joining Baltimore’s organization.
“He decided on us. There was other suitors, and we’re excited that he wants to take this journey with us,” Perez said. “Sometimes, you’ve got to wait for the late bloomer, or sometimes these guys from Cuba come out unexpectedly, and you want to be prepared to be able to get them. It played right into our hands in this situation.”
Given the lack of established infielders on the rebuilding Orioles, it also isn’t surprising that Prieto saw Baltimore as a possible quicker route to the majors. Perez said Prieto will start next season in the “mid to upper levels” of the farm system, with the O’s eyeing him as mostly as a second baseman but flexible enough to handle third base or shortstop in a pinch.
While the Orioles don’t want to harm Prieto’s development by promoting him too soon, it isn’t out of the question that he could make his MLB debut in 2022, considering his age and past pro experience. If an early call-up would only come if Prieto adjusts quickly and dominates minor league pitching, his time in the Cuban National Series (Cuba’s top league) is evidence that Prieto can indeed be a big force at the plate.
Over his last two CNS seasons, Prieto has recorded 68 walks against only 34 strikeouts, while batting .379/.452/.533 in 690 plate appearances. Prieto doesn’t offer much power (11 home runs in those two seasons), yet he makes up for that lack of pop with tons of contact and a keen batting eye. According to Perez, some O’s scouts used Nick Madrigal as a comp for Prieto’s skillset.
Prieto’s ability to handle multiple positions could make him something of a utilityman in the majors, depending on how the Orioles’ future infield picture eventually shakes out. On the current MLB roster, Rougned Odor is a veteran stopgap set for regular second base duty, Ramon Urias is already 27 but has looked good in his first two Major League seasons, and Kelvin Gutierrez has yet to show much at the big league level. Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg are the Orioles’ two top infield prospects, and Prieto being lined up as a second baseman reflects how the O’s seem to be eyeing Henderson and Westburg as the future left side of their infield (with the specific positions yet to be determined).
Travis Snider Announces Retirement
Former major league outfielder Travis Snider announced his retirement on Instagram this morning. “Thank you baseball. You have given me countless relationships and experiences I will cherish for the rest of my life,” Snider wrote as part of his statement. “I am so thankful that I got to live out my childhood dream and share it with the people I love and care about. I have contemplated this day for a while but the time has finally come for me to hang up the spikes. … To my teammates, coaches, trainers, front office, and clubhouse families, thank you for all the amazing memories.”
A first-round pick of the Blue Jays in the 2006 draft, the left-handed hitting Snider quickly emerged as one of the sport’s more promising prospects. Baseball America ranked him among the league’s Top 100 farmhands over each of his first three full pro seasons. That included a #6 overall ranking heading into the 2009 campaign, not long after Snider had made his big league debut at age 20 late in the prior season.
Snider would go on to spend the next three-plus seasons in Toronto. He never emerged as the middle-of-the-order slugger evaluators and the Jays’ fanbase hoped he’d become, but he hit around a league average level over his first few seasons. Snider struggled in 2011, though, and the Jays traded him to the Pirates for Brad Lincoln at the following deadline. He spent the next couple years as a platoon outfielder in Pittsburgh, posting a career-best .264/.338/.438 showing over 359 plate appearances in 2014.
The following offseason, the Bucs traded Snider to the Orioles for Steven Brault and Stephen Tarpley. He didn’t perform well in Baltimore and wound up released in August. Snider hooked back on with Pittsburgh late in the season but was outrighted off the Bucs’ roster after appearing in 18 games.
That ultimately proved to be the final big league run for the Washington native, as Snider hasn’t appeared in the majors since 2015. He’s hung around the periphery of the majors as a high-priority depth option, logging Triple-A time with the Royals, Mets, Rangers, D-Backs and Braves over the past half-decade.
All told, Snider departs having appeared in eight big league seasons and suiting up in 630 games. Across 1,971 plate appearances, he hit .244/.311/.399 (93 wRC+) with 54 homers, 100 doubles and seven triples. Snider never blossomed into a star or even as a true everyday player, but he played in the bigs every year between 2008-15 and ultimately spent a decade and a half in affiliated ball. MLBTR congratulates Snider on his career and wishes him all the best in his post-playing days.
Orioles Changing Left-Field Dimensions At Camden Yards
Construction has begun on the left field area at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Nathan Ruiz of The Baltimore Sun reports, as the Orioles are looking to make their ballpark’s dimensions slightly more favorable towards pitchers. The stretch of the left field wall from the foul pole to the bullpen area in left-center field will be moved back roughly 30 feet, and also elevated to around 12 feet high from its current height of seven feet.
The renovations are expected to be completed by Opening Day. This is the first notable change to OPACY’s dimensions in 20 seasons, though even those changes (increasing the distance between home plate and the outfield wall) were rolled back a year later.
As Ruiz notes, Camden Yards has allowed the most home runs (5911) of any ballpark in the majors since OPACY first opened in 1992. While obviously many new stadiums have since opened and don’t have the 30 years of compiled history, any number of metrics or just plain naked-eye measurements leave no doubt that Camden Yards is one of baseball’s more hitter-friendly venues.
The oft-struggling state of the Orioles’ pitching staff has naturally played a role in those numbers, though it can certainly be argued that Baltimore pitchers might have had better numbers if right-handed batters had more of a challenge in reaching the seats on fly balls to left field. “While Camden Yards will remain a hitters’ park, the hope is for the changes to prevent it from being an outlier in terms of home runs,” Ruiz writes.
Orioles pitchers have allowed the most homers in baseball in each of the last three 162-game seasons. That includes a 2019 campaign that saw Baltimore pitchers set a new MLB record with 305 home runs allowed in a single season. The use of the livelier ball led to a huge surge in home runs league-wide in 2019, yet while the five highest single-season homers-allowed totals in history occurred during that season, the Orioles’ 305 total still comfortably led the pack (the Rockies were second, surrendering 270 home runs).
Orioles In Talks About Camden Yards' Lease
The Orioles have called Oriole Park at Camden Yards home for the last 30 seasons, and the team continues to negotiate with the Maryland Stadium Authority about the ballpark’s future and a lease extension. “The good news is both the Orioles and the stadium authority feel very strongly that we want to renew this partnership and that it’s been beneficial for all parties — the state, the city, the team,” Orioles senior VP of administration and experience Greg Bader told The Baltimore Sun’s Jeff Barker. The Orioles’ lease at Camden Yards is up in December 2023, though the club can decide by February 1, 2023 whether or not it wants to exercise a one-time, five-year extension that would run through 2028.
Orioles “Favorites” To Sign Cuban INF Cesar Prieto
The Orioles are the “favorites” to sign infielder Cesar Prieto when the international signing period opens on January 15th, per MLB.com’s Francys Romero (via Twitter). Romero reports the signing amount to be somewhere between $650K and $750K.
Baltimore has been aggressive under GM Mike Elias in pursuing international free agents. It’s one of the few avenues available to teams to add talent without giving up talent in return. Prieto raked as a 21-year-old in the Cuban National Series, slashing .403/.463/.579 over 360 plate appearances, showing off an intriguing combination of bat-to-ball skills, speed, and gap power.
Fangraphs lists Prieto as a second baseman with a 40+ future value ranking. They write, “Prieto is the best pure hitter in Cuba. He broke Kendrys Morales’ rookie hits record then broke the Serie Nacional’s hit streak record (40 games) in 2020 while striking out just six times in 250 plate appearances. His swing and game resemble Eric Sogard’s.”
At 22-years-old, Prieto is older than many international prospects, which could just make him a fast riser in Baltimore’s system. The Orioles need as much talent in their system as they can muster. Prieto represents a low-cost, low-risk opportunity to add a hitter with a proven track record of success in Cuba.
Seven Years And Counting For The Orioles Rotation
Though the Giants have made putting together a starting rotation look easy, most teams struggling to contend know how complex a process building a competent pitching staff can be. Bullpens are fickle, so consistency in run prevention is best guaranteed with a reliable rotation.
The Baltimore Orioles know the challenge better than most. The rotation at Camden Yards finished 26th in 2021 by measure of fWAR, but last with a 5.99 ERA and 5.41 FIP. In fact, their rotation has finished in the bottom-10 by ERA AND FIP in every season since 2014. That’s a pretty remarkable run of incompetence. It’s almost impressive, especially considering they were able to overcome those subpar rotations to make the playoffs in 2016 and finish .500 in 2015.
The Orioles invested in their rotation this offseason for the first time in GM Mike Elias’ tenure. Small as that investment was (they signed Jordan Lyles to a one-year, $7MM guarantee with a team option for a second season), it’s a step in the right direction. Lyles alone isn’t going to keep the Orioles from an 8th consecutive season with a bottom-10 rotation. He made 30 starts in 2021 and finished with exactly 0.0 fWAR, after all. But he also tossed 180 innings, which makes a difference in saving a bullpen and providing enough breathing room for young rotation arms to thrive.
Forget productivity for a moment. The Orioles rotation will have a watchable rotation if and when D.L. Hall and Grayson Rodriguez establish themselves in the Majors. That duo is likely to start next season in Triple-A, but they’re close. When they arrive, there’s going to be some honest-to-god excitement around Baltimore’s rotation. That duo probably won’t have a full season in the bigs until 2023, however.
There’s at least one more season of fungible, fill-in-the-blanks taking the bump in Baltimore. Just because the big-name prospects aren’t set to arrive doesn’t mean there’s no progress to be made this season. After all, with Lyles and presumptive ace John Means, they’re in a better place than usual.
Rich Dubroff of Baltimorebaseball.com went through each of their internal candidates to fill out the rotation behind Means and Lyles. Dubroff lists Keegan Akin, Mike Baumann, Dean Kremer, Zac Lowther, Alexander Wells, and Bruce Zimmermann as the incumbent candidates, with Zimmermann as the most accomplished of the group, even if he was most successful as a long man out of the pen.
The other way to build out the rotation, of course, is through free agency. The Orioles aren’t probably going to spend any more than they already have in terms of a one-year salary, but for free agents at the bottom of the hierarchy, Baltimore offers more opportunity than most other rotations around the game. Matt Harvey is the mold, a former star looking to rehabilitate his image.
Harvey posted 1.9 fWAR but only a 6.27 ERA, but he did make 28 starts and toss 127 2/3 innings in 2021. A 4.60 FIP suggests Harvey might have something left in the tank. Besides, amazing though this is, Harvey’s 2021 ranks as the 13th-best output by fWAR during this seven-year run of Orioles’ bottom-feeding. There simply hasn’t been much success of any kind, even the tempered brand of success offered by Harvey in 2021.
Unfortunately for Baltimore, most teams looking for mid-season upgrades have higher standards than the Orioles. Their goal for 2022 should be to add arms that might actually be flippable at the deadline. Lyles qualifies, even if his numbers from last season aren’t all that inspiring.
Other names that might be available to Baltimore are Jose Urena, Mike Fiers, Aaron Sanchez, and/or Mike Foltynewicz. Guys with slightly more upside, say, Chris Archer, Drew Smyly, Chad Kuhl, or Steven Brault might cost a little more than Baltimore wants to spend. Carlos Martinez or Matthew Boyd might present the highest upside, either in terms of their current ability or their eventual trade value, but even those arms are higher up the totem pole than Baltimore has ventured in years past.
What could change that calculus is a trade of Means. There’s not a real high likelihood that Baltimore wants to move Means at this juncture, but if it means selling high on the southpaw, they might consider it. There are enough teams in need of pitching to make Baltimore listen to pitches. If they do move the 28-year-old, they’d probably be better off in the long run, but it all but guarantees another disastrous finish for their starting staff in 2022.
Frankly, Means isn’t unique enough of a talent to hold onto, should the prospect return be right. But teams also haven’t been eager to move prospects of value recently. The longer they hold onto Means, the more his salary will rise, and the lesser of a trade piece he becomes.
Then again, teams generally aren’t as desperate in the offseason because there are more options available and more margin for error with a full season ahead. If they hold onto Means to start the year, he will still have a year plus of team control at the deadline, and that might be just the right calculus to make a deal happen.
It’s not hard to blame the Orioles for holding onto Means. Prospects aren’t a sure thing. Kevin Gausman had the best season by fWAR (2016) of any Baltimore starter in this current era, and when they traded him, Zimmermann was a big part of the return. So it’s not as if trading off their starters has yielded the path to a turnaround.
The rub here is that GM Mike Elias has yet to actually try to build a winning rotation. His goal since his arrival has been to build a long-term competitive engine, a process that’s still very much in the works. So they can sign more free agents, and they can trade Means or hold onto him, but until Elias is willing to really give it a go, expect Baltimore’s rotation to stay in the bottom 10.
Extension Candidate: Adley Rutschman
Within the last four years, Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, Evan White, and Scott Kingery all signed their first multi-year Major League contracts before even debuting in the Show, as clubs began to increasingly explore the idea of the “pre-career” extension. The logic is simple — if a team thinks it has a can’t-miss prospect, signing that prospect to an extension before his service clock begins can give the team both cost-certainty over the player’s arbitration years, as well as control over at least a few free agent years via club options.
Robert’s six-year, $50MM pact with the White Sox (that could be an eight-year, $88MM deal if Chicago exercises a pair of club options) in January 2020 represents the high-water mark for pre-career deals, yet it is worth noting that the Astros were something of a pioneer with this tactic. Jon Singleton signed a five-year, $10MM contract in June 2014 before playing his first MLB game, and Houston also notably explored such a contract with George Springer prior to the future All-Star’s big league debut. This period overlaps with Mike Elias’ time (2012-18) in the Astros’ front office, and now that Elias has since moved on to run his own team as the Orioles’ executive VP and general manager, it is worth wondering if Elias might attempt locking up his own blue-chip prospect.
Adley Rutschman is widely expected to not only make his MLB debut in 2022, but also get the bulk of playing time as Baltimore’s starting catcher. Jacob Nottingham and Anthony Bemboom were recently signed to minors deals to provide at least some Major League experience in the team’s catching ranks, but either will just be a placeholder until Rutschman gets the call to the big leagues. Whether this debut happens on Opening Day or a few weeks into April may hinge on whether or not the service-time manipulation issue is addressed in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement, but an extension for Rutschman would make that question moot, and guarantee that Baltimore fans will get to see Rutschman as soon as possible.
The first overall pick of the 2019 draft, Rutschman has done nothing but reinforce that pedigree during his brief pro career. Rutschman already received two promotions up the ladder (to A-ball) in his first season in 2019, and after working out at the Orioles’ alternate training site in 2020 due to the canceled minor league season, he tore up the farm system in 2021. The catcher hit .285/.397/.502 with 23 home runs over 543 combined plate appearances with Double-A Bowie (358 PA) and Triple-A Norfolk (185 PA).
An argument can be made that Rutschman could use a bit more seasoning at the Triple-A level, particularly since he’ll be taking over a position that requires so much extra work in terms of pregame preparation and working with pitchers. However, as noted in Baseball America’s scouting report, Rutschman may be a bit ahead of the curve in this respect, due to his time spent with veteran pitchers, catchers, and Major League coaches at the 2020 alternate training site. Plus, Rutschman was already seen as a strong defender even in his college days at Oregon State, and BA now gives him a strong 60 grade on the 20-80 scouting scale (to go along with an eye-popping three 70 grades in hitting, power, and throwing arm.) Both BA and MLB Pipeline rate Rutschman as the best prospect in all of baseball.
In short, Rutschman seems like the kind of cornerstone prospect that any team would covet, especially an Orioles club that has been grinding through a top-to-bottom rebuild during Elias’ entire tenure. The O’s already see Rutschman as the next face of the franchise, and an extension would only cement that status. Given that the Orioles have almost literally no money on the books beyond the 2022 season, there’s plenty of payroll space to commit to a hefty contract for the burgeoning star.
For Rutschman and other star prospects presented with pre-career extensions, the question is simple. Does the player feel comfortable in taking a big payday now and locking in at least one eight-figure fortune from his baseball career, or does the player feel like betting on himself to perform as expected in the majors? The latter route carries more risk, but potentially sets the player up for even more money down the road, either through rising arbitration salaries, bigger free agent money once he hits the open market, or even a later extension with his current team.
From a pure dollars perspective, Rutschman has already achieved some solid financial security, via his $8.1MM signing bonus from the draft. This isn’t necessarily an indicator that he would be less open to an extension — Robert, for instance, already had a $26MM international signing bonus in the bank prior to his extension with the White Sox.
The added wrinkle in this case is Rutschman’s position. No catcher has ever signed a pre-career extension — expanding the list to players with less than a year of service time, the Royals’ February 2012 deal with Salvador Perez represents the earliest pact ever given to a backstop. Needless to say, Rutschman won’t be signing for a contract similar to Perez’s five years and $7MM in guaranteed money, though Perez did end up doing much better in two subsequent extensions with Kansas City.
Rutschman is enough of a top-tier prospect that the Orioles probably won’t have much concern over guaranteeing a big long-term deal to a catcher. From Rutschman’s perspective, taking a big contract now might have some appeal as a hedge against potential injury, simply because catchers inevitably receive so much wear and tear (even if the DH or a potential move to first base down the road can help). Plus, unless the next CBA adjusts when players are eligible to reach free agency, it will be quite some time before Rutschman can hit the open market. He turns 24 in February, so if his debut is indeed pushed off to mid-April for service-time reasons, Rutschman won’t be scheduled for free agency until he is entering his age-31 season.
So while there are some valid reasons why Rutschman might be open to an extension early in his career, that doesn’t necessarily mean he would take a deal before his career gets underway. It can be assumed that a Rutschman extension would top Robert’s record, and yet Rutschman might have eyes on a bigger target — such as the 11-year, $182MM deal Wander Franco just signed with the Rays in November.
Since Joe Mauer is the only catcher to sign a deal worth more than $182MM, Rutschman won’t top Franco’s number. Plus, Franco is both younger (turning 21 in March) and plays shortstop, so he is more of a safer long-term play for an extension, even for a lower-payroll club like the Rays. However, while Rutschman and his representatives likely wouldn’t be aiming to top Franco’s contract, the deal does serve as a reminder of the greater riches that can await a star prospect if he exhibits even some of that early promise at the MLB level. While no reports surfaced whether or not Tampa explored a pre-career extension with Franco, had he inked such a contract, it would have been worth much less than his eventual $182MM guarantee.
Obviously, matching Franco’s excellent 2021 performance is no small feat for any player, especially a rookie like Rutschman. But, just staying on the field and performing pretty well in 2022 would represent a nice showcase for Rutschman, and give the Orioles even more confidence in committing a major sum closer to the $100MM mark than simply a bump over Robert’s $50MM pact with the White Sox.
Given Rutschman’s status as an elite prospect, it is quite possible an extension akin to Robert’s deal could be on the table next winter anyway even if he doesn’t quite hit the “performing pretty well” threshold. Barring a major injury or an unusual amount of struggles at the MLB level, the Orioles would likely still have interest in extending Rutschman prior to his sophomore year, considering all of his widely-touted potential.
A Rutschman extension would also have no small amount of symbolic value for the franchise. Simply promoting Rutschman might have that same galvanizing effect on the long-suffering Baltimore fans, so Elias and the front office don’t necessarily need to rush into things just yet. However, officially planting the financial flag on a new era of Orioles baseball would set a clear direction that the rebuild is almost over, and the organization will again start spending and looking to play some competitive baseball.
