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2021 Amateur Draft Rumors: Pirates, Mayer, Orioles, Mock Drafts

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The 2021 amateur draft begins on July 11, and with the later date comes more time for analysis, predictions, smokescreens, rumors, and possible major changes up and down teams’ draft boards.  With this in mind, there is naturally quite a bit of uncertainty over which prospects will land with which teams, as a real consensus has yet to develop in almost every single spot in the first round.

Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo, The Athletic’s Keith Law, MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis, and ESPN.com’s Kiley McDaniel have all published new mock drafts within the last week, and one constant emerged between the four pundits — the Pirates taking California high school shortstop Marcelo Mayer with the first overall (1-1) pick.  It isn’t a sure thing by any means, however, as the Pirates are said to be focused “only on position players at this point,” according to Law, so such candidates as Louisville catcher Henry Davis (Callis cites Davis as Pittsburgh’s apparent “Plan B”) or high school shortstops Jordan Lawlar and Khalil Watson could still be in the mix.  Collazo also believes the Pirates are considering Vanderbilt right-hander Jack Leiter.

The Pirates’ $14,394,000 draft bonus pool is the highest of any team, and they plan to maximize value by drafting a player at 1-1 who is thought to be less willing to insist on the full slot price $8,415,300 slot price for the first overall pick.  “I think that’s what Pittsburgh’s pick will come down to: taking the one that is clearly cheaper to sign,” McDaniel writes, which certainly isn’t welcome news to Pirates fans long frustrated by the team’s unwillingness to spend.

That being said, many teams have deployed the strategy of spreading around their draft bonus money in the past.  The most famous example was the Astros’ pick of Carlos Correa (seen as a slight reach at the time) first overall in 2012, and Houston signed Correa to a below-slot bonus and then using that saved money to sign 41st-overall pick Lance McCullers Jr. to an above-slot deal.  It also isn’t like Mayer would be a controversial choice at 1-1, considering that MLB Pipeline ranks him first on their top 250 draft prospects list, and McDaniel’s most recent prospect ranking has Mayer second overall.

While Mayer looks like the favorite at the moment, it is quite possible the perceived price tags could still fluctuate in the next three weeks.  For instance, the three pundits all note that the Tigers love Mayer, so he isn’t likely to fall beyond Detroit at the third overall pick if the Pirates and Rangers (who pick second) both pass.  As McDaniel observes, this impacts Mayer’s leverage in potential negotiations with the Pirates, since the young shortstop can be reasonably certain of at least landing a bonus in range of the $7,221,200 slot price attached to the third overall pick.

There is no consensus whatsoever in the mock drafts after a hypothetical Pirates/Mayer 1-1 pick, so if Pittsburgh went in another direction, the draft boards would be entirely blown up.  To give you an idea of the wide range of scenarios, here is the list of players cited by Callis, Collazo, Law and McDaniel as possibilities for each team drafting in the top eight, along with which pundit selected which prospect for each top-eight team in their mock draft.

  • 1. Pirates: Mayer (Callis/Collazo/Law/McDaniel), Henry Davis, Jordan Lawlar, Khalil Watson, Jack Leiter
  • 2. Rangers: Leiter (Callis), Lawlar (Collazo/Law), Davis (McDaniel), Kumar Rocker, Mayer, Watson….in a contrast to the other three pundits, Callis writes that Texas has Lawlar and Davis “on the back burner” behind Watson, Mayer, and Leiter.  “Watson has real heat at this spot,” Collazo writes.
  • 3. Tigers: Mayer, Jackson Jobe (Callis/Collazo), Leiter (Law), Brady House (McDaniel), Lawlar, Watson, possibly Rocker “as a big maybe” in Collazo’s words
  • 4. Red Sox: Lawlar (Callis), Davis (Law), Leiter (Collazo/McDaniel)….Collazo doesn’t believe Leiter would fall beyond Boston at fourth overall,
  • 5. Orioles: Davis (Callis), Colton Cowser (Law), Watson (Collazo/McDaniel), House, Harry Ford, either of Mayer/Lawler if they happened to fall….Baltimore is widely expected to take a college position player at an under-slot price, as a way of keeping money in reserve to go over-slot on other picks.
  • 6. Diamondbacks: Rocker (Callis), Davis (Collazo), Watson (Law), Lawlor (McDaniel), Jobe
  • 7. Royals: Watson (Callis), Rocker (Collazo/Law/McDaniel)….this is another minor consensus area, as Law and McDaniel believe that Rocker isn’t likely to fall beyond Kansas City.  “The market for Rocker is weirdly specific,” Law writes, citing the Rangers, Red Sox, Royals, Nationals, and Mets as perhaps the only true interested parties.  Of course, Callis projected the D’Backs to take Rocker at sixth overall, so Arizona could also be a candidate for the Vanderbilt righty.
  • 8. Rockies: House (Callis/Collazo/Law), Benny Montgomery (McDaniel), Jobe

All four mock drafts are well worth reading in full, to get a sense of what the 29 teams with first-round picks are generally targeting this year or have historically looked for in past drafts.  (The Astros aren’t included, as they lost their first-rounder as part of their punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.)

For more on the prospects themselves, you can check out the aforementioned lists from McDaniel and MLB Pipeline, Baseball America’s top 500 list, or some of the individual writeups from the Sports Info Solutions blog on such top college players as Florida outfielder Jud Fabian, Wake Forest right-hander Ryan Cusick, UCLA shortstop Matt McClain, and Mississippi right-hander Gunnar Hoglund.

Orioles Designate Mickey Jannis For Assignment, Select Konner Wade

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The Orioles announced Friday that they’ve selected the contract of righty Konner Wade from Triple-A Norfolk and designated right-hander Mickey Jannis for assignment in a corresponding move. The O’s also optioned righty Dean Kremer to Norfolk and recalled lefty Alexander Wells.

Jannis was just selected to the major league roster earlier this week. The 33-year-old made his MLB debut Wednesday night against the Astros, but it didn’t go well. He worked 3 1/3 innings of mop-up relief but was tagged for seven runs on eight hits (including three homers), issuing four walks while striking out just one. It was a nightmare outing to be sure, but it also came against a Houston lineup that has been far and away the best in baseball this year. Before that tough debut, the knuckleballer earned a big league look by pitching to a 2.92 ERA in 24 2/3 innings with Norfolk. The O’s will have a week to trade him or place him on waivers.

The designation of Jannis frees up Wade to make a late-career MLB debut of his own. A 7th-round pick out of the University of Arizona in 2013, Wade has spent the past seven seasons climbing the minor league ladder. Most of that time was spent in the Rockies and Red Sox systems, but the 29-year-old signed a minor league deal with Baltimore over the winter. He’s spent the entire year in Norfolk, where he’s tossed 31 innings of 3.48 ERA ball, mostly as a multi-inning reliever. Wade has never been one to miss many bats, and that hasn’t changed this year (16.4% strikeout rate). But the righty also has a long history of quality strike-throwing, and that’s continued in 2021 (4.9% walk rate).

Kremer has spent much of the year in the O’s rotation. He’s struggled mightily, though, pitching to a 7.25 ERA with worse than average strikeout and walk numbers (20% and 10.7%, respectively) over 49 2/3 innings. That’s a disappointing follow-up to a decent four-start MLB look in 2020 for Kremer, who’s long been seen as one of the more promising pitchers in the Baltimore system.

Wells is a decently-regarded prospect in his own right. The 24-year-old doesn’t throw hard or miss bats, but he owns some of the best control in the minors. He has a 5.63 ERA across 32 Triple-A frames this season. Wells will be making his major league debut whenever he gets into a game.

Mets Claim Chance Sisco

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The Mets have claimed catcher Chance Sisco off waivers from the Orioles, per team announcements from both clubs. The Orioles had designated him for assignment last week. The Mets moved J.D. Davis to the 60-day injured list to clear a roster spot for Sisco, who has been optioned to Triple-A Syracuse for the time being.

Today’s claim brings to an end Sisco’s tenure with the Orioles, who selected him in the second round of the 2013 draft. The left-handed hitting backstop raked up through Double-A over the next few seasons, eventually earning himself a place on top prospect lists. Baseball America ranked Sisco among the back half of the league’s top 100 minor league talents entering the 2017 and 2018 campaigns, with the expectation that Sisco would cement himself as a bat-first regular behind the dish.

To this point, however, Sisco hasn’t carried that offensive promise over to the highest level. He tallied 598 major league plate appearances with Baltimore over the past five seasons, managing just a cumulative .199/.319/.339 line. He’s popped sixteen home runs and walked at a strong 10.2% clip, but Sisco has become increasingly strikeout prone as he’s climbed to the highest level. He’s gone down on strikes in 32.3% of his MLB plate appearances. Advanced defensive metrics have panned his work behind the plate, which was also a concern for some scouts as he worked his way up the ladder.

While Sisco hasn’t yet proven a valuable big leaguer, there’s little harm for the Mets in placing a claim on an obviously talented player. He’s still just 26 years old and has a decent .264/.352/.421 slash line in 805 career plate appearances at Triple-A. As mentioned, he can also be optioned for the remainder of the year, so the Mets can keep him in Syracuse as high minors’ depth if he remains on the 40-man roster all season.

Davis’ transfer to the 60-day IL is largely a procedural move. It rules him out for 60 days from the time of his initial IL placement (May 3). He’ll be eligible to return on July 1. General manager Zack Scott told reporters (including Tim Britton of the Athletic) earlier this week that Davis could embark on a minor league rehab assignment within a week or two.

Hyde: John Means Targeted For Return "Right After The All-Star Break"

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Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko and other reporters that John Means is slated to return “at some point right after the All-Star break.”  Means hit the 10-day injured list on June 6 due to a shoulder strain, and his timeline wasn’t entirely clear at the time of the placement.  For now, Means is able to play catch, and will gradually work his way up to readiness over the next few weeks.

Though it’s good news that a projected return date is in place, the timing confirms that Means won’t be participating in the All-Star Game, and the left-hander certainly looked like a strong candidate for his second All-Star selection based on his first two months of work.  A return shortly after the July 12-15 All-Star break would allow time for Means to show that he is healthy for any teams interested in a deal prior to the July 30 trade deadline, though since Means is controlled through the 2024 season, there isn’t any immediate pressure on the Orioles to move Means unless a great offer comes along.

Orioles Select Mickey Jannis

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The Orioles announced they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Mickey Jannis. Fellow righty Mac Sceroler was designated for assignment to create active and 40-man roster space.

Jannis’ promotion will be welcome news to fans of a unique pitch that has fallen out of vogue in recent seasons. The 33-year-old is a knuckleballer, and he’ll become the first of that ilk to appear in the majors in 2021 if he gets into a game. According to Statcast, there have been twelve knuckleballs thrown in MLB this season, but they come with an asterisk. All twelve “knucklers” were thrown by White Sox utilityman Danny Mendick during a mop-up appearance against the Red Sox in April. (Jannis was featured in a 2019 article about the league’s declining usage of the knuckleball by Ben Lindbergh of the Ringer).

Today’s news also marks the culmination of a long personal journey for Jannis. A 44th-round pick in 2010 out of Cal State-Bakersfield, he’s pitched in parts of eight minor league seasons and four years of independent ball. He reached Triple-A in the Mets system but didn’t get to the majors with New York. Signed to a minors pact with Baltimore over the winter, Jannis earned his first big league promotion with a strong start at Triple-A Norfolk. Across 24 2/3 innings with the Tides, he’s pitched to a 2.92 ERA. As might be expected from a knuckleballer, he hasn’t missed many bats (13% strikeout rate) and has issued a fair amount of walks (10%) but he’s only given up one home run this season.

Sceroler, 26, was selected out of the Reds organization in last December’s Rule 5 draft. He’s logged his first 7 2/3 MLB innings in 2021, but they’ve not gone well. Sceroler has been tagged for fifteen runs (twelve earned) in that limited time. He’s punched out a decent eleven hitters but also issued seven walks and given up a staggering six homers.

As a Rule 5 draftee, Sceroler had to stick on the active roster (or injured list) all season if the O’s wanted to retain his contractual rights. He’ll now be exposed to waivers. If he goes unclaimed, Baltimore will have to offer him back to the Reds, who wouldn’t need to dedicate him a 40-man roster spot.

Cedric Mullins’ Emergence In Baltimore

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The Orioles have torn their roster down as part of a massive rebuild over the past few seasons. The organization has acquired a collection of highly-regarded prospect talent the fanbase is certainly hoping will comprise the core of a contender down the line. In the interim, though, the MLB product has been quite poor. The Orioles went 126-258 (32.8% winning percentage) between 2018-20, and their 23-48 record this season is the worst in the American League.

This kind of rebuild does offer an opportunity for less-heralded players to get some run at the major league level, though. Most won’t take advantage, resulting in a lack of teamwide success, but an underrated player will occasionally perform at a high enough level to cement himself as a building block of the organization’s long-term future. This season, Cedric Mullins has done exactly that.

A 13th-round pick out of Campbell University in 2015, Mullins performed well enough in the minors to generate a bit of attention. Baseball America twice ranked him among the O’s top 30 prospects, suggesting he was most likely to settle in as a fourth outfielder. In 2018, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs noted that he had an intriguing toolset and minor league track record but suggested the consensus opinion among talent evaluators was that he’d be more of a role player than a true regular.

Mullins made his MLB debut late that season and performed in line with those expectations over the next couple seasons. Between 2018-20, he hit .225/.290/.342 (73 wRC+). He was always a good baserunner and made some improvements at the plate last season, but he still looked like more of a placeholder than a core piece entering the year.

Over the past few months, Mullins has changed that outlook by outperforming even the most optimistic projections. He’s hitting .319/.389/.552 (158 wRC+) with thirteen home runs across 304 plate appearances. Not only has he emerged as a force at the plate, he’s been one of the game’s rangiest defenders. Statcast credits Mullins with seven outs above average this season, tied with Brett Phillips for second among outfielders (Manuel Margot is plus-9). Advanced metrics that take arm strength into account (like Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating) have been a little less enthused, but all agree that Mullins has at least been above-average in center field this year.

Factoring in his contributions on both sides of the ball, Mullins has been one of the most valuable players in the sport. FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement metric places Mullins third among position players (fourth if you also include Shohei Ohtani’s pitching value), trailing only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Ronald Acuña Jr. Baseball Reference’s version of the statistic slots Mullins seventh.

There’s room to debate where Mullins truly fits among players like Guerrero, Ohtani, Fernando Tatís Jr., Marcus Semien, Carlos Correa and Matt Olson this year. That he’s even in that conversation, though, is a testament to the campaign he’s had. Mullins will almost certainly be elected to the All-Star Game, and he’s tracking towards appearing on MVP ballots if he can continue to produce like this in the second half of the season.

Mullins probably won’t remain this good. His .363 batting average on balls in play is 73 points higher than the .290 league average. A quality runner, he should be expected to run a slightly better than average BABIP, but he’ll have a hard time keeping it quite so high. Statcast’s batted ball metrics suggest his results have outpaced the quality of his contact a bit, and his prior track record of subpar hitting can’t be completely discounted.

There’s plenty of room for Mullins to take a bit of a step back while remaining a decidedly above-average player, though. His defense gives him a strong floor to begin with, and the 26-year-old has made some substantive changes that suggest he’s turned a corner at the plate. Most notably, Mullins abandoned switch-hitting this year, hitting left-handed permanently. He’s been much better at hitting opposing southpaws left-on-left than he was stepping into the right-handed batter’s box. But that’s only come in 97 plate appearances, and he’s posting career-best production against righties this year too.

Mullins is striking out less than he did last year against pitchers of both handedness (albeit with a more significant drop against lefties), making more contact when he swings, and drawing walks at a career-best rate. He’s also almost completely stopped popping the ball up on the infield, even as his overall fly ball rate is higher than ever. Perhaps abandoning his right-handed swing to focus solely on hitting lefty has made Mullins more comfortable with his mechanics overall. Maybe his strong production against righties is completely unrelated to that decision. Whatever the reason, he’s made significant strides as a hitter.

There’s been plenty of attention on which players the still-rebuilding O’s might move before the July 30 trade deadline. Mullins, though, looks like a safe bet to stick around. He’s controllable through 2025 and won’t reach arbitration-eligibility until after next season. Even if there’s some regression forthcoming, he’s made enough process improvements to believe he’s truly taken his game to another level as he enters his prime years. Mullins looks to have legitimately broken out in 2021, and he’s the type of player the Orioles can build around as their top prospects matriculate to the big league level. Baltimore fans haven’t had much to celebrate in recent seasons, but Mullins’ emergence is a reason to continue to watch as the team scuffles in the near-term, and a sign of hope for the future.

Orioles Designate Chance Sisco For Assignment

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1:40pm: The Orioles announced that Sisco has indeed been designated for assignment. The move was necessary to open a spot on the roster for right-hander Thomas Eshelman, whose contract has been selected from Triple-A Norfolk. Eshelman will take the place of lefty Bruce Zimmermann and start tonight’s game for the O’s, while Zimmermann is headed to the injured list due to tendinitis in his left biceps.

1:07pm: The Orioles have designated former top catching prospect Chance Sisco for assignment, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (Twitter link). They’ll now have a week to trade him or attempt to pass him through outright waivers.

Sisco, 26, was a second-round pick back in 2013 and quickly played his way into top prospect status. Sisco raked at every stop through his first few minor league seasons, and Baseball America ranked him among the sport’s 70 best prospects in both 2017 and 2018. His 2016 season, in particular, was an impressive run through Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk, as Sisco combined to bat .317/.403/.430 with a 12.3 percent walk rate against a 17.7 percent strikeout rate. The O’s called Sisco up for a look late in the 2017 season, and he responded with a 6-for-18 showing that included a pair of homers and a pair of doubles. He looked very much like the organization’s catcher of the future.

That began to change in 2018, when Sisco received his first extended look at the MLB level. He played in 63 games for Baltimore that season and logged 184 plate appearances with just a .181/.288/.269 output to show for it. Sisco’s numbers improved to .211/.345/.389 in 2019-20, but he’s struggled mightily so far in 2021 both in the big leagues and down in Norfolk.

Sisco had a nice showing with Triple-A during the 2019 season, but he hasn’t consistently produced even at the sport’s top minor league level. He’s batting .205/.327/.341 through 52 plate appearances in Norfolk this season and carries an overall .264/.352/.421 slash there in parts of five seasons.

Those struggles have become more problematic as Sisco has gotten older and been unable to improve his ability to control the running game. Baseball America noted back in 2018 that Sisco would likely need “perfect footwork” to be a passable thrower from behind the dish, given bottom-of-the-scale pop times as he attempted to throw out runners on the bases. To his credit, he went 6-for-9 in thwarting thieves at the MLB level this season, but he’s also 1-for-16 in that department in Norfolk this year and has a career 21 percent caught-stealing rate in the minors.

Further complicating matters for Sisco is that he’ll be out of options next spring, meaning he’d need to either make the big league roster or go unclaimed on waivers. With his current struggles pushing him down the depth chart, that lack of future flexibility likely contributed to today’s decision to remove him from the 40-man roster.

Sisco’s status as a one-time top catching prospect who can be optioned for the remainder of the year could well hold appeal to another club, either via a small trade or a waiver claim. The most plausible scenario for him to remain with the Orioles beyond the current season would be one where he clears waivers and is later selected back to the MLB roster, but given today’s move, it may be likelier that another club takes a chance on the former top prospect.

With Sisco now in DFA limbo, the only catchers on the Orioles’ 40-man roster are Pedro Severino and light-hitting Austin Wynns. The club has an experienced option in Norfolk in the former of former Rays catcher Nick Ciuffo, but the organization’s hope at the position clearly shifted to Adley Rutschman the moment he was selected with the top pick in the 2019 draft. The switch-hitting Rutschman has utterly obliterated Double-A pitching thus far in 2021, hitting at a .287/.421/.554 pace with ten homers and five doubles through 171 plate appearances in what is typically a pitcher-friendly environment.

It’s not implausible that Rutschman could crack the Majors this season, although rebuilding clubs like the Orioles often seek to delay the arrival of their top prospects in order to gain an additional year of club control. Calling Rutschman up this season, or at any point in the first two weeks of the 2022 campaign, would give the Orioles’ control over him through the 2027 season. Waiting to call him up until 15 days of the 2022 season have elapsed would push that path to free agency back into the 2028-29 offseason.

Shawn Armstrong Discusses Decision To Stay With Orioles

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  • After being outrighted off the Orioles’ 40-man roster, Shawn Armstrong had the option of rejecting the outright assignment and becoming a free agent.  As Armstrong told MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko, he received interest from “quite a few teams” about a possible spot in a new organization, but he chose to remain in Baltimore.  “I love being an Oriole….They have a very good understanding of what I need to be successful in my career,” Armstrong said.  “The comfort of working with these guys that I’ve been with for the past three years is a huge plus for me.”  The right-hander has struggled to an 8.55 ERA over 20 innings out of Baltimore’s pen this season, though Armstrong is optimistic about a turn-around after identifying several issues with both his biomechanics and “not being too predictable” with his pitch selection and location.

John Means Plays Catch For First Time Since Injury

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  • Orioles ace John Means, pulled from a June 5th start in the first inning, began playing catch for the first time since the injury according to MLB.com’s Joe Trezza.  Means may be able to return by month’s end.  With a 2.28 ERA and a no-hitter on the season, the lefty seems a lock for the All-Star Game.

Pirates Acquire Taylor Davis

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The Orioles acquired minor league outfielder Jose Berroa from the Pirates for catcher Taylor Davis, reported Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com among others.

Davis, 31, picked up 20 games of big league experience with the Cubs from 2017-19.  He signed a minor league deal with the Orioles in January 2020, and played in 12 games for the Norfolk Tides this year.  Davis may not have made much of a big league impact yet, but he did garner fame for “shooting icy stares at the Iowa Cubs’ cameras,” as SI’s Dan Gartland put it in 2017.  Davis will now make the trip to the Pirates’ Triple-A affiliate.  The Indianapolis Indians open a six-game set against the Memphis Redbirds tonight.

Berroa, 19, did not fall within FanGraphs’ top 51 Pirates prospects back in February.  He played 56 games in the Dominican Summer League in 2019 and will be assigned to the Orioles’ Florida Complex team in Sarasota.  He was a July 2 signing out of the Dominican Republic back in 2018.

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