- Today’s victory over the Angels extended the Orioles’ winning streak to seven games, and Baltimore now has a 42-44 record. After years of rebuilding, the O’s may seem a little ahead of schedule, as they find themselves on the outskirts of the wild card hunt. However, GM Mike Elias didn’t give reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko) any hint that the team would be planning to add rather than subtract at the trade deadline, just saying that “everything that I do or that we do has tradeoffs, and all I can say is, we do everything from a very global, a very thoughtful perspective about what is the right thing to do for the health of the Orioles’ franchise….I think that we’re in store for a lot of good stuff in the next few years, and I’m very happy that it’s kind of reflected right now during this stretch of play so plainly for our fans.”
- Elias also noted that the front office has been more focused on the upcoming amateur draft than on trade possibilities, and that the Orioles are considering five players for the first overall pick.
Orioles Rumors
Orioles Recall Bruce Zimmermann, Option Beau Sulser
The Orioles have optioned Beau Sulser to Triple-A, recalling Bruce Zimmermann to claim his roster spot, the team announced.
Sulser made his Major League debut this season, pitching for both the Pirates and Orioles. In total, he has made six appearances between the two clubs, totaling 14 innings of work and registering a 3.86 ERA/3.82 FIP with a 12-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Zimmermann has spent most of the season in Baltimore’s rotation. Over 13 starts, the 27-year-old southpaw has a 5.94 ERA/5.82 FIP across 66 2/3 innings. He’s tossed an additional 18 innings with a 4.50 ERA in Triple-A.
The Orioles have been surprisingly competent. Despite being in last place, they’re currently only three games under .500 overall. The rotation, however, hasn’t been a particular strength. Orioles’ starters rank 23rd overall with a 4.64 ERA.
Orioles Claim Kirk McCarty, Designate Marcos Diplan For Assignment
The Orioles announced Wednesday that they’ve claimed lefty Kirk McCarty off waivers from the Guardians and opened a spot on the roster by designating righty Marcos Diplan for assignment. Baltimore also shuffled up its bullpen by optioning lefty Nick Vespi to Triple-A Norfolk and recalling righty Beau Sulser in his place.
McCarty made his big league debut with the O’s this season but was hit hard, surrendering 13 runs (12 earned) on 18 hits and six walks with eight punchouts in a dozen innings. Of those 18 hits he yielded, a whopping six were home runs.
That said, the 26-year-old McCarty has pitched fairly well in Triple-A this season, notching a 3.77 ERA with a below-average 18.7% strikeout rate but a strong 7.1% walk rate. He also has all three minor league option years remaining (2022 included), which creates the potential that he could serve as rotation depth in Baltimore beyond the current season. The Orioles’ rotation has been in a constant state of flux throughout their rebuild, so having some extra optionable depth on hand is never a bad thing.
Alternatively, the O’s could try McCarty in the ’pen to see just how much his 92 mph average fastball velocity might tick up (and perhaps to focus more heavily on one of his three secondary offerings — likely his curveball). The O’s are currently getting excellent work from both Cionel Perez and Keegan Akin, but there’s plenty of fluidity on the fringes of the relief corps and no reason the O’s couldn’t carry three lefty relievers.
As for the 25-year-old Diplan, he’s appeared in each of the past two seasons with the O’s, pitching to a combined 4.04 ERA, 21.3% strikeout rate and 13.3% walk rate in 35 2/3 innings off work. He’s yielded just one run earned run in 5 2/3 big league innings so far in 2022, albeit with a less-appealing 8-to-5 K/BB ratio. He also carries a 3.12 ERA in a a total of 43 2/3 career innings of Triple-A ball, but those same command issues have persisted in the upper minors; Diplan has walked 24 of the 197 hitters he’s faced in Triple-A (12.2%) and hit another pair.
The O’s have passed Diplan through outright waivers unclaimed on two occasions in the past — once in 2020 and once in 2021. Both times, he’s returned to the organization. Because of those prior outrights, he can reject another outright assignment if he clears waivers a third time. The O’s will have a week to trade him, try to put him through waivers, or release him.
Orioles Notes: Mancini, Santander, Lopez
As has been the case the past few summers, the Orioles enter deadline season among the game’s likeliest sellers. Baltimore has been amidst a full rebuild, and they’re again all but certain to finish at the bottom of the American League East. The O’s have shown signs of progress, graduating top prospect Adley Rutschman to the big leagues and going 14-12 last month, but they’re still set to field offers on a number of players.
Among the likeliest to be dealt are first baseman/designated hitter Trey Mancini and corner outfielder Anthony Santander. Mancini is set to hit free agency at the end of this season, and as of Spring Training, the club had not engaged his representatives in talks about a potential long-term deal. Barring an out-of-the-blue extension coming together over the next few weeks, the O’s figure to flip Mancini to a contender for this season’s final couple months. (Mancini’s agreement with the O’s to avoid arbitration this spring included a $10MM mutual option for 2023. Given the caliber of season he’s having, he seems unlikely to trigger his end of the pact and forego a possibility at a multi-year free agent deal).
The Mets are among the teams that has checked in on Mancini, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. New York skipper Buck Showalter is plenty familiar with the Notre Dame product, having managed in Baltimore through 2018. That encompassed Mancini’s first two full seasons as a big leaguer, so Showalter had an up-close look at his clubhouse fit and work habits.
Mancini is amidst one of the better seasons of his career. Through 295 plate appearances entering play Friday, the 30-year-old is hitting .280/.356/.421. Mancini has only hit seven home runs, but his 20% strikeout rate is a career-low. While his power output has dipped, particularly relative to his 35-homer 2019 breakout campaign, his hard contact rate is still well above-average.
Pete Alonso is having a great season at first base for the Mets, but the club figures to look into external possibilities at designated hitter. New York has gotten a .230/.311/.383 showing from the DH position, exactly league average production by measure of wRC+. Between Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis, the Mets entered the season with a seeming surplus of bat-first players who could serve as the team’s DH. Smith has instead struggled for a second straight season, hitting .194/.283/.265 in 113 MLB plate appearances and spending some time in Triple-A. Davis has a .243/.333/.345 line over 171 trips to the dish, hitting only two homers in 51 games. Like Mancini, Davis has far better batted ball metrics than his power results would suggest though.
The Mets are one of plenty of teams that either already has or will check in with O’s general manager Mike Elias regarding Mancini. Santander also figures to attract some amount of interest, and Heyman writes in a separate piece that Baltimore is willing to make him available. After a down 2021, he’s hit 14 home runs through this season’s first half. The switch-hitting outfielder owns a .235/.329/.424 line in just under 300 trips to the plate.
For the first time in his career, Santander has an on-base percentage above the league average, a testament to an approach overhaul that has allowed him to work more free passes. After swinging at more than half the pitches he’d seen in every season of his career through 2021, Santander has cut his swing rate to just over 46% this year. With that more patient approach has come a 10.5% walk rate that’s more than double the 5.1% clip he’d posted in his career through last season.
While the O’s are under time pressure to extend or trade Mancini, the club could elect to hold onto Santander if they don’t receive offers to their liking. The 27-year-old entered this season with three-plus years of big league service. He’s controllable through the end of 2024 via arbitration and making a modest $3.2MM this season. As for Baltimore’s other controllable outfielders, Heyman unsurprisingly writes the team would “have to be blown away” to move either Cedric Mullins or Austin Hays. Baltimore can keep each of Mullins and Hays through 2025.
Aside from Mancini and Santander, Baltimore’s next-most likely trade candidate may well be breakout closer Jorge López. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored yesterday, López has transformed from struggling starter to lights-out reliever. Through 37 innings, the right-hander has a microscopic 0.73 ERA. He’s struck out 27.1% of opponents and generated ground-balls at a massive 64% clip, a combination that is sure to lead to plenty of calls from teams looking to add a late-game weapon.
As part of a reader mailbag, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes that Baltimore would listen to offers on López, at least as a matter of due diligence. Controllable through 2024 and playing this season on a $1.5MM salary, the 29-year-old could affordably stick around for the next few seasons. It’d no doubt take a significant haul for Elias and his staff to pull the trigger on a deal, but other clubs will try to pry López away before the August 2 deadline.
The Orioles’ Waiver Claim All-Star (And Trade Candidate)
The Orioles have acquired their fair share of formerly well-regarded prospects over the course of a drawn-out rebuild, as one would expect of a team in their situation. For the most part, there’s little to show for their frequent waiver claims and minor trades in this arena, however. Names like Maikel Franco, Kelvin Gutierrez, Carson Fulmer, Chris Shaw, Dilson Herrera, Rio Ruiz and Jahmai Jones have had brief spells in recent years, none producing much in the way of value. Longtime top prospect Jorge Mateo is currently on the roster and leading the AL with 19 steals … but he’s also been one of MLB’s worst hitters, evidenced by a .199/.247/.335 batting line.
For much of his tenure with the Orioles, it looked as though right-hander Jorge Lopez was destined to join that list of once-promising names who got another shot in Baltimore but never really panned out. Lopez was a second-round pick of the Brewers back in 2011 and ranked as one of the system’s better arms for years. He was eventually traded to the Royals alongside Brett Phillips in the deal that brought Mike Moustakas to Milwaukee, and Lopez went on to have a rather nondescript run in Kansas City. Appearing in 47 games — 25 of them starts — he was rocked for a 6.42 ERA over the life of 158 1/3 innings. The Royals eventually felt he’d had enough opportunities and cut bait. The Orioles claimed Lopez off waivers.
Lopez’s first two years in Baltimore were a near-mirror image of his ugly run with the Royals. From Aug. 2020 through the end of the 2021 season, Lopez started 31 games and made 11 relief appearances with the O’s; he posted a 6.13 ERA (5.22 FIP) with a 19.3% strikeout rate, a 9.4% walk rate and 1.58 HR/9 through 160 innings pitched.
Heading into the offseason, Lopez looked as though his time with the team could be up. Due for his first trip through the arbitration process, Lopez was a soon-to-be-29-year-old who’d posted an ERA north of 6.00 in three consecutive seasons. The O’s had acquired and subsequently discarded plenty of former top prospects of this nature, and few fans or pundits would’ve been surprised to see Lopez meet the same fate. Many — myself included — felt a Lopez non-tender was all but a given.
Instead, the Orioles signed Lopez to a one-year, $1.5MM deal on the day of the non-tender deadline. It might prove to be the best use of payroll resources so far during Mike Elias’ time as the team’s general manager, as Lopez appears all but assured of earning his first ever All-Star nod.
Through the first three months of the season, the 29-year-old Lopez has stepped up not only as Baltimore’s closer but as one of the best relievers in Major League Baseball. Pitching exclusively in relief for the first time in his big league career, Lopez has seen the average velocity on his sinker jump to a career-best 98.0 mph. Never one to miss many bats in prior seasons, he’s logged an 11.6% swinging-strike rate that, while not elite, is three percentage points higher than his pre-2022 career mark and is slightly north of the 11.1% MLB average. Unsurprisingly, he’s fanning opponents at a career-best 27.1% clip so far in 2022. Again, it’s not an elite level — Lopez is tied for 64th among 178 qualified relievers in overall strikeout rate — but it’s comfortably above the 23.4% league average for relievers.
Lopez does possess at least one elite skill, however. Opposing hitters can barely elevate the ball against him. The right-hander’s 64% ground-ball rate is the third-best in baseball among qualified relievers, and while no one’s catching Clay Holmes in that regard (82.4%), Lopez’s power sinker has helped to turn him into a bona fide bullpen force.
The success lies not solely in the fact that Lopez is getting hitters to pound the ball into the ground — it’s in the fact that the contact against him, both in the air and on the ground, is generally hapless. Hitters are averaging an 84.5 mph exit velocity against Lopez on grounders — well below the league average — but even when they manage to lift the ball, it’s been wildly ineffectual. Lopez has yet to surrender a home run this season, and his opponents’ average 89.7 mph exit velo on liners/fly-balls is tied for the 19th-lowest mark among 368 qualified big league pitchers.
Given the sinker’s dominance, it’s not a surprise to see Lopez going to it more than ever before. He’s all but scrapped his four-seamer, throwing it at just a three percent clip so far in 2022, while his sinker is being used at a career-high 51.3% clip. He’s also throwing his slider at a career-high 12% pace and his changeup at a career-high 15.9% rate — with that change in secondary offerings coming at the expense of his previous go-to curveball. Lopez is still tossing that curve 17.8% of the time, but that’s down considerably from 2018-21’s 27.8% usage rate. The velocity uptick is across the board — even Lopez’s changeup is average just under 91 mph — and it’s effectively rendered all four of his main offerings as above-average pitches. FanGraphs’ run values peg each of Lopez’s sinker, curveball, changeup and slider as positive-value pitches this season.
If it seems like an out-of-the-blue breakout, that’s mostly true, although it’s possible that Lopez’s August/September performance in 2021 served both as a portent for this turnaround and as a means of saving his roster spot. Lopez lost his rotation spot after an Aug. 19 drubbing at the hands of the Rays (four runs in two innings). His next outing came out of the bullpen and featured a scoreless inning with a pair of strikeouts — and from that point forth, Lopez would pitch 8 1/3 innings of relief while allowing just two runs on six hits and two walks with 10 strikeouts.
That’s a tiny sample, of course, but the seeds of this breakout were quite likely planted at that point. From Opening Day 2021 through that final start on Aug. 19, Lopez threw his four-seam fastball at a 24.2% clip and his sinker at a 33.3% clip. The sinker was still favored, but his ineffective four-seam heater was a prominent part of his repertoire. Over his final eight relief appearances, Lopez shifted gear and turned to his sinker at a 48.4% rate while cutting back the use of his four-seamer to just 15.3%. The sinker, which had sat at 95 mph out of the rotation, jumped to 96.5 mph on average, and Lopez’s overall ground-ball rate soared from 49.4% to 66.7%.
Small-sample sources of intrigue like these don’t always pan out, but the O’s deserve credit for looking at Lopez’s strong bullpen showing down the stretch in 2021 and believing that he could build on that formula over a larger sample. The risk was minimal — $1.5MM and a 40-man roster spot all winter — but few would’ve batted an eye had the O’s non-tendered Lopez and looked to utilize that roster spot in a different manner.
Instead, the Orioles now have a pitcher who has genuinely been one of MLB’s best relievers in 2022. Lopez has a minuscule 0.73 ERA on the year, and he ranks in the 93rd percentile or better in each of the following (according to Statcast): expected ERA, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, barrel rate, expected wOBA, expected batting average and expected slugging percentage. Lopez is one of just five relievers in MLB (min. 30 innings) with a strikeout rate greater than 25%, a walk rate under 10% and a ground-ball rate north of 50%. The others — Holmes, Taylor Rogers, Emmanuel Clase and breakout rookie Jhoan Duran — are considered among baseball’s elite.
Of course, given the Orioles’ place in the standings and the protracted nature of their rebuild, trade speculation regarding Lopez is inevitable. General manager Mike Elias will absolutely be receiving calls and texts about Lopez’s availability — he surely already has — and Elias generally takes a “no one is off the table” approach regarding his veteran players. Lopez will surely be “available” to an extent, but there might not be a trade candidate in baseball who has elevated his stock quite this dramatically in 2022.
Beyond Lopez’s pure dominance, he’d be a multi-year fix for any team willing to pony up with a hefty offer. The right-hander has two years of club control remaining beyond the current season, and given this year’s eminently affordable $1.5MM salary, his future raises will be starting from a relatively low baseline. In other words, he ought to remain overwhelmingly affordable — especially relative to his newfound production — over the remainder of that club control.
The Orioles certainly don’t have to trade Lopez. By the time his club control is drawing to a close, in 2024, they may well finally be back to a state of competitiveness. At the same time, reliever performance is volatile on a year-to-year basis. Just as there’s risk in selling a high-end contributor like Lopez for unproven young talent, there’s risk that Lopez will sustain an injury or simply a downturn in performance — even if that appears unlikely based on his current skill set.
The O’s, for instance, had plenty of interest in lefty Paul Fry prior to last year’s deadline but held onto him (and his remaining three-plus years of club control). Fry melted down with 19 runs over seven post-deadline innings and wound up being designated for assignment earlier this year (at which point he was flipped to the D-backs for a 19-year-old in Rookie ball). Fry’s trade value wasn’t nearly as high as Lopez’s is now, nor was his future outlook quite so promising. That said, the manner in which his Baltimore tenure panned out is illustrative of the risk associated with rebuilding clubs holding onto bullpen arms in hopes of down-the-road contributions.
The nexus of Lopez’s dominance, his remaining club control and the Orioles’ timeline to compete will make him one of the most fascinating borderline cases to monitor as this year’s Aug. 2 trade deadline draws nearer. In the meantime, he’ll give O’s fans good reason to tune into the All-Star Game — well, if he’s still wearing an Orioles uniform by that point.
Orioles Trade Patrick Dorrian to Brewers For Cash Considerations
The Brewers have acquired Triple-A infielder Patrick Dorrian from the Orioles in exchange for cash considerations, per MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (via Twitter). Dorrian, 25, hit .161/.256/.269 over 169 plate appearances with Triple-A Norfolk this season. As recently as last year, however, Dorrian posted a solid .246/.362/.475 in 473 plate appearances in Double-A. The Brewers will see if they can rekindle some of that magic in Triple-A.
Orioles Outright Zac Lowther
- The Orioles announced that left-hander Zac Lowther went unclaimed on outright waivers and has been subsequently assigned to Triple-A Norfolk. He was designated for assignment a week ago, when Baltimore claimed infielder Jonathan Arauz off waivers from the Red Sox. Lowther, 26, was a second-round pick by the Orioles back in 2017 and for a few years rated as one of their system’s most promising arms. It was easy to see why, as he breezed through the low minors, reaching Double-A as a 23-year-old in 2019 and hurling 148 frames of 2.55 ERA ball with a 26% strikeout rate (albeit against an elevated 10.6% walk rate). Since moving up to the Triple-A level, however, the former Xavier University standout has been clobbered for 61 earned runs in 65 1/3 frames. He’s endured similar struggles in his limited Major League action, pitching to a grisly 6.94 ERA with 15 walks, five hit batsmen and six homers allowed in just 35 innings.
Orioles Activate Joey Krehbiel, Option Logan Gillaspie
The Orioles have activated Joey Krehbiel from the 15-day injured list and placed him on the active roster. Right-hander Logan Gillaspie was optioned to Triple-A to make room, per the team.
Gillaspie, 25, has made 11 appearances spanning 10 1/3 innings with a 4.35 ERA/3.23 FIP. This year is his first with big-league experience. He has also made nine appearances in Triple-A with a 3.14 ERA over 14 1/3 innings.
Krehbiel, 29, has been an active participant out of the bullpen for the Orioles this season, appearing in 22 games. He’s pitched to a 2.74 ERA, but just 4.48 FIP across 23 innings with a 16-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Orioles claimed Krehbiel off waivers from the Rays last September.
Orioles Reinstate Anthony Santander, Keegan Akin
JUNE 17: As expected, Santander and Akin have been reinstated from the restricted list before this evening’s game against the Rays. Stowers and Garcia have been returned to the minor leagues and are off the 40-man roster.
JUNE 13: The Orioles announced they’ve selected outfielder Kyle Stowers and right-hander Rico Garcia onto the major league roster as designated COVID-19 “substitutes.” In corresponding moves, they’ve placed outfielder Anthony Santander and lefty Keegan Akin on the restricted list. That’s the standard practice for players who haven’t been vaccinated against COVID-19 on teams headed for a series in Toronto. The Canadian government prohibits unvaccinated athletes from crossing the border, so Santander and Akin will miss the next four games.
Stowers is the more notable of the two call-ups, as he’s now in line to make his major league debut. A supplemental second-round pick out of Stanford back in 2019, the left-handed hitter has been one of the organization’s most interesting prospects since that point. Stowers appeared among the top 30 farmhands in a quality Baltimore system each season from 2020-22, according to Baseball America, with the outlet recently placing him as the O’s #9 minor league talent.
Primarily a corner outfielder, Stowers’ calling card is his bat speed and power potential. BA graded his raw power as plus-plus (a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale), and he popped 27 home runs and 23 doubles across three minor league levels last season. Stowers drew plenty of walks as well but struck out in more than 30% of his plate appearances at each stop, and both Baseball America and Keith Law of the Athletic raised questions about how often he swings through pitches inside the strike zone.
To Stowers’ credit, he’s cut back on his strikeout rate thus far in the 2022 campaign. Through 209 plate appearances at Triple-A Norfolk, he’s hitting .253/.356/.545 with 12 homers and a more manageable 25.4% strikeout percentage. That’s still a few points north of the league average, but it’s unquestionably an improvement relative to last season and hasn’t come at the cost of any of Stowers’ extra-base impact.
Garcia, meanwhile, is headed to the majors for the first time in two years. The Honolulu native suited up with the Rockies and Giants between 2019-20, tossing 16 innings of 7.31 ERA ball between the division rivals. Garcia missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery, and he was limited to a minor league deal this past winter. He has a 1.93 ERA across 18 2/3 innings between three levels, striking out an excellent 37.2% of opponents along the way.
That Baltimore specified both Stowers and Garcia are COVID replacements is notable, as they’ll each be occupying a temporary spot on the 40-man roster. Both players can be taken off the roster and returned to Norfolk when Santander and Akin are eligible to return on Friday, and that seems the likeliest course of action.
Stowers, in particular, figures to land a permanent roster spot in the relatively near future, though. He’ll need to be added to the 40-man at the start of next offseason to keep him from being taken in the Rule 5 draft, and Baltimore could bring him up for an extended look against big league arms before too long given his strong high minors showing.
In other O’s news, the club announced that infielder Chris Owings has passed through release waivers unclaimed. He’s now a free agent. Baltimore designated Owings for assignment last week after a .107/.254/.143 start to the season.
Orioles Claim Jonathan Arauz, Designate Zac Lowther
The Orioles announced they’ve claimed infielder Jonathan Araúz off waivers from the Red Sox and optioned him to Triple-A Norfolk. Left-hander Zac Lowther has been designated for assignment to create a 40-man roster spot.
Boston designated Araúz for assignment last week, a move that eventually ended his tenure in the organization after two-plus seasons. Selected out of the Astros organization in the 2019 Rule 5 draft, Araúz stuck on the active roster for the shortened 2020 campaign. Boston secured his long-term contractual rights and he’s bounced on and off the active roster for the past two seasons as a depth infielder. The switch-hitter owns a .204/.280/.320 line with four home runs through 167 big league plate appearances.
The Panama native has posted a .228/.303/.329 mark in just under 400 trips to the dish with the Red Sox’s top affiliate in Worcester. That’s obviously not great production, but he’s only punched out in 15.8% of his Triple-A plate appearances. Araúz is capable of playing both middle infield positions as well as third base, and while he’s never likely to be much of a power threat, he at least brings solid bat-to-ball skills to the table. The 23-year-old is in his second minor league option year, so the O’s can stash him in Norfolk for the next year and a half if he holds onto a 40-man spot.
Lowther’s designation comes as a bit of a surprise, as the Xavier product had recently been rated as one of the better pitching prospects in the organization. He’s appeared among Baseball America’s rankings of the O’s top 30 prospects heading into each of the past five years. Lowther doesn’t throw hard or draw particularly strong grades for his breaking pitches, but evaluators have pointed to the deception in his delivery and his generally strong control as reasons he could be a useful depth starter.
The 26-year-old is amidst an absolutely dreadful season with Norfolk, though, as he’s been tagged for a 10.03 ERA across 35 innings. He’s served up eight homers in his ten outings while posting worse than average strikeout and walk numbers (21.7% and 10%, respectively). Lowther has also been hit hard at the big league level, allowing just under seven earned runs per nine innings over 11 appearances. That’s a far cry from his stellar performances up through Double-A, and the O’s have been discouraged enough by the recent results to risk losing him entirely.
Baltimore will have a week to trade Lowther or try to run him through outright waivers. His low minors dominance and pair of remaining options could lead another team to see whether they can get him back on track. If Lowther goes unclaimed, he’d remain in the upper minors of the Orioles’ system without occupying a spot on the 40-man roster.
