As part of our annual Offseason in Review series, MLBTR is hosting team-specific chats in conjunction with each entry as it’s released. Yesterday, the Orioles’ installment of the series was published. After you check that out, click here to read the transcript of the Orioles-centric chat.
Orioles Rumors
Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles
After five straight dismal seasons, the Orioles finally showed signs of life in 2022. Their farm system truly started producing for the big league club and they won 83 games, their best tally since 2016. That led to hopes of an aggressive winter, with general manager Mike Elias fanning those flames as the offseason was ramping up. But in the end, the club avoided big splashes and stuck to a few modest moves. The future is still bright in Baltimore as the organization is loaded with young talent, but a true pedal-to-the-metal move hasn’t materialized yet.
Major League Signings
- RHP Kyle Gibson: one-year, $10MM
- IF/OF Adam Frazier: one-year, $8MM
- RHP Mychal Givens: one-year, $5MM, including 2024 mutual option
2022 spending: $23MM
Total spending: $23MM
Option Decisions
- Club declined $11MM option on RHP Jordan Lyles in favor of $1MM buyout
Trades And Claims
- Claimed OF Jake Cave off waivers from Twins (later lost on waivers to Phillies)
- Claimed C Mark Kolozsvary off waivers from Reds (later outrighted off 40-man roster)
- Claimed C Aramis Garcia off waivers from Reds (later outrighted and elected free agency)
- Claimed OF Daz Cameron off waivers from Tigers (later outrighted off 40-man roster)
- Claimed 1B Lewin Díaz off waivers from Pirates (later traded to Braves, claimed again and then outrighted off 40-man)
- Selected RHP Andrew Politi from Red Sox in Rule 5 draft
- Acquired C James McCann and cash considerations from Mets for a player to be named later (later named as IF/OF Luis De La Cruz)
- Traded IF Tyler Nevin to Tigers for cash considerations
- Acquired 1B/OF Ryan O’Hearn from Royals for cash considerations (later outrighted off 40-man roster)
- Acquired LHP Darwinzon Hernandez from Red Sox for cash considerations (later outrighted off 40-man roster)
- Acquired LHP Cole Irvin and RHP Kyle Virbitsky from A’s for IF Darell Hernaiz
Extensions
- None
Notable Minor League Signings
Notable Losses
- Lyles, Rougned Odor, Cam Gallagher, Brett Phillips, Jesús Aguilar, Chris Owings, Robinson Chirinos, Jake Reed, Beau Sulser, Louis Head, Chris Ellis, Yusniel Díaz
“Our plan for this offseason has always been to significantly escalate the payroll,” general manager Mike Elias said in August. “I think a lot of that’s going to come through our own guys going into arbitration, but also we plan to explore free agency much more aggressively. We plan to maybe make some buy trades for some guys that are either on contracts or kind of in the tail-end of their arbitration.”
“The success…has only cemented those plans. I’m really looking forward to the offseason and kind of a winter meetings environment where we’re buying. I think it’s going to be a lot of fun for our group and for the organization.”
Here’s another Elias comment from August, relayed by Dan Connolly of The Athletic: “I think it’s liftoff from here for this team.”
Those comments surely led to a wide spectrum of interpretations and expectations among the club’s fanbase. Some might have been on the more skeptical side, while others might have been dreaming of a big splash such as one of the top shortstops or an elite starter. The club reportedly did sniff around the “Big Four” shortstops but never really seemed to be close to getting anything done there. They were also connected to starters like Carlos Rodón and Jameson Taillon and others. But again, they never really seemed to close to winning those bids and those players ultimately signed elsewhere.
The club did make a couple of moves for their rotation, but nothing approaching the level of a Rodón or a Taillon. They turned down an $11MM option over veteran Jordan Lyles, opting instead for the $1MM buyout. A few weeks later, they redirected the $10MM they saved to another veteran innings eater in Kyle Gibson. On the surface, that actually seems like something of a downgrade, as Lyles posted a 4.42 ERA last year to Gibson’s 5.05. One could dig deeper and find that Gibson had better peripherals and a lower FIP, and this will perhaps turn into a savvy swap. But in the grand scheme of things, we’re talking about a move that is essentially net neutral.
The other new addition to the rotation is Cole Irvin, acquired from the A’s with each team getting a new prospect in the deal as well. Irvin is somewhat similar to Gibson in that he’s expected to be a competent but not elite member of the rotation. He made 62 starts for the A’s over the past two years with a 4.11 ERA, but will be moving from the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum to the AL East. Oriole Park is a bit kinder to pitchers since they moved the left field fence back last year, but Irvin will still have to take the mound in the less-friendly stadiums around the division while facing some strong lineups. He has done well over the past couple of seasons and is cheap since he’s yet to reach arbitration, but there’s some risk here.
There were also some modest additions made to the position player mix. Adam Frazier was brought aboard with a one-year deal to essentially replace Rougned Odor as the veteran second baseman. He’s coming off a down year at the plate but is generally graded well with the glove. His bat has oscillated hot and cold over the years, and he’ll be a nice piece if he can have one of those good seasons. If one of the Orioles’ many infield prospect eventually pushes for a larger share of the second base reps, Frazier has plenty of experience in left field, too.
The club also bought low by acquiring James McCann from the Mets, as he’s coming off two straight disappointing seasons. He still has two years remaining on his four-year, $40.6MM deal, but the Mets are paying down most of it. The O’s will only be responsible for paying $5MM total over those two years. With Adley Rutschman firmly cemented as the backstop for years to come, the O’s only need McCann to be a serviceable backup. If his bat rebounds to where it was in 2019 and 2020, that would be a nice bonus, but they’re not relying on it. Notably, McCann has a strong track record against lefties (despite a poor showing in 2022), and the switch-hitting Rutschman was far better as a left-handed hitter than as a right-handed hitter during his debut season. The O’s aren’t going to immediately relegate Rutschman to platoon status, but McCann still gives them some nice balance in their catching duo.
And what else? Mychal Givens got $5MM to bring an established veteran presence to the bullpen. The depth was fortified by waiver claims on players like Ryan O’Hearn and Lewin Díaz, twice in the latter case. Both players were eventually outrighted to serve as non-roster depth alongside minor league signees like Nomar Mazara and Franchy Cordero. That’s about it.
As mentioned earlier, fans likely had varying ideas of what to expect this winter with those comments from Elias, but it’s hard to really feel like this is what he had in mind. The club’s current payroll is effectively stagnant relative to the end of last year, with Roster Resource putting a $63MM figure on both tallies. That places them 29th in the league, with only the A’s behind them. After saying he would “significantly” escalate the payroll, it’s hard to characterize that as anything but a disappointment. Was it “a lot of fun,” as Elias predicted, to swap Lyles for Gibson and then add Irvin, McCann, Frazier and Givens?
The disparity between the promise and the delivery might be chalked up to the changes in the offseason environment. Most of the marquee free agents beat the industry projections, often by wide margins. Xander Bogaerts, for instance, got around $100MM more than most expected. Even mid-rotation starters like Taillon and Taijuan Walker did much better than their projections. Perhaps Elias expected to come away with more here and was simply priced out. There would be little sense in raising hopes if he had no intention in coming through.
Regardless of how or why it happened, the O’s are going into 2023 with a fairly similar roster to last year, which isn’t really a bad thing. The club’s farm system truly started to bear fruit at the big league level last year, with prospects like Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Stowers and others debuting and showing strong potential. There’s even more coming through the pipeline with Grayson Rodriguez, one of the best pitching prospects in the league, potentially jumping right into the Opening Day rotation here in 2023.
Those should be fixtures on the big league team this year and for years to come, alongside other incumbents like Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays and others. The pitching seems a little less exciting, with Gibson and Irvin joined by some other hurlers that are still trying to cement themselves as viable big leaguers, such as Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Austin Voth and Tyler Wells.
Despite all those prospects jumping up to the big leagues, the system still has more. After Rodriguez, the club also has highly-regarded prospects like DL Hall, Connor Norby, Coby Mayo, Joey Ortiz, Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser and Jackson Holliday. Aside from Holliday, those guys will all be in the upper levels of the minors and could join the team this year depending on how the year progresses.
Overall, the club is still in great shape for the future, as they are loaded with young and controllable talent. The lack of recent spending means that there’s close to nothing on the books going forward. But it was hoped by many that the young core would be supplemented by aggressive moves to add established veterans. Elias asserted that was the plan and did bring in some complementary pieces, but not really at the level he seemed to imply.
Leaving aside the players for a moment, another key storyline for the Orioles this winter was the apparent turmoil within the Angelos family. Peter Angelos has owned the team for decades but has been suffering poor health since he collapsed in 2017. It seems that his wife Georgia and their two sons, John and Louis, have been in disagreement about how to proceed with the franchise. It was reported in June of last year that John had been approved by MLB as Baltimore’s “control person” but with Louis suing his brother over those developments and others. Georgia then filed a countersuit against Louis, alleging he fabricated claims in his own attempt to seize power. Despite that seemingly ugly battle, an agreement was reached in February whereby all parties agreed to drop their lawsuits.
Amid all those lawsuits were accusations about a potential sale of the club, with John and Georgia both accused of trying to explore the possibility at times. Alongside this, the club declined a five-year lease extension at Camden Yards in February. That creates some uncertainty about the club’s future in Baltimore, but it seems that this is merely a temporary issue. The club is hoping to get a new deal in place that’s 10-15 years in length so that the Maryland Stadium Authority can qualify for a $600MM loan for stadium upgrades. John Angelos has been adamant that the club is not looking to relocate, nor are they seriously pursuing a sale. He’s also said they would like to get into the top half of the league in terms of spending at some point.
That provides some hope for the future, but that didn’t come to fruition this winter. As mentioned, the club’s payroll is higher than last year but still just 29th among the 30 clubs in the league. Despite a winter devoid of splashy moves, the on-field product is still in decent shape. They won 83 games last year and still have plenty of prospects on the rise. However, young players don’t always progress in a linear fashion, and this particular group will be trying to compete in what is arguably the strongest division in the league. There’s light over the horizon, but it’s still not clear how close the new dawn really is.
How would you grade the Orioles’ offseason? (Link to poll)
In conjunction with the Orioles’ offseason review, we held an Orioles-focused chat on March 7. You can click here to read the transcript.
AL East Notes: Hall, Vavra, White
Baltimore’s opening day rotation picture is a little clearer now after manager Brandon Hyde revealed he doesn’t believe DL Hall will be stretched out enough to handle a starting workload to begin the season, per Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun. Hall had been a candidate to take a spot in a rotation that is very much up in the air behind Cole Irvin and Kyle Gibson but was experiencing lower back discomfort late in the off-season, which appears to have put him a bit behind schedule.
The question now for the Orioles is whether they option Hall to Triple-A to begin the season, or have him pitch out of the bullpen in the big leagues. Hall had a brief stint in the big leagues last season, working to a 5.93 ERA over 11 appearances (one start). That did come with a completely unsustainable .436 BABIP, and Hall did post a quality 29.7% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate to indicate he did pitch much better than the 5.93 ERA suggests.
Hall was competing for, presumably, one of three available rotation spots. Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin look like certainties to take two spots, and Hall, Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, Austin Voth and others were candidates to fill the remaining spots. With Hall now removed from that equation, it does increase the chances that top pitching prospect Rodriguez cracks the opening day rotation.
Here’s some more notes from around the AL East:
- Sticking with the Orioles to begin with, and Ruiz reports that utilityman Terrin Vavra is day-to-day with left shoulder discomfort. According to Hyde, Vavra experienced soreness while taking pre-game batting practice. There doesn’t appear to be too much reason for concern given we’re still a little under a month away from the start of the regular season. Vavra slashed .258/.340/.337 across 103 plate appearances during his rookie year last season. He spent time in the infield and outfield, and projects as a useful versatile bench option for the Orioles going into the new season.
- Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that Mitch White is a few weeks behind schedule but is feeling good and threw a side session today as he builds back from a shoulder impingement suffered in January. White had been a contender for Toronto’s fifth rotation spot, and while there’s nothing definitive ruling him out of that, the fact he’s still a few weeks behind schedule would suggest it’s unlikely he’ll be stretched out enough to be in the rotation picture by opening day. That would mean Yusei Kikuchi, who lost his rotation spot last year, would be the favorite to join Alek Manoah, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios in the Blue Jays’ rotation. White, acquired from the Dodgers last summer, struggled to a 7.74 ERA over 43 innings for Toronto last season. That came after a much more promising 56 innings of work with the Dodgers earlier in the season, whereby White worked to a 3.70 ERA. His peripherals were largely the same across both teams, and indeed his FIP for the Dodgers of 3.95 was actually worse than the 3.76 mark he had with the Blue Jays. White is out of minor league options.
AL Notes: White, Santander, White Sox
Mariners first baseman Evan White is healthy and even hit a home run in today’s spring action (Twitter link with video from the club). But Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports that the team wants him to get everyday action in Triple-A Tacoma to start the season. That’s fairly logical given that injuries have held back the former top prospect in recent seasons. In November of 2019, he and the club agreed to a six-year contract with three club options, before White had even cracked the majors. He finally made his debut in 2020 but struggled, striking out in 41.6% of his plate appearances. The two subsequent seasons were marred by various injuries, including hip surgery and sports hernia surgery, with White only getting into 62 total games between the majors and minors.
With so much missed time and White still having options, some regular playing time in the minors could help him get back on track. There’s also the matter of Ty France having taken over as the club’s regular first baseman. “I said to our coaches, ‘I believe at some point this year, Evan White will help us,’” Mariners manager Scott Servais said to Daniel Kramer of MLB.com. “He’s going to impact us. Certainly, Ty France has first base locked down right now. But things happen. Things happen throughout the course of the year. But [White] just needs to go play baseball, put himself kind of back on the map again — and the only way he can do that is to be available.”
In 2019, White played 92 games in Double-A and hit 18 home runs. His .293/.350/.488 batting line was good for a 132 wRC+, indicating he was 32% better than the league average hitter. If he can get back into that form, that would be a nice depth piece for the M’s to have.
Some other notes from around the league…
- Orioles outfielder Anthony Santander left today’s game after being hit on the knee with a pitch, with Nathan Ruiz of The Baltimore Sun among those to relay the details. The game was in the sixth inning at the time and Santander may have been scheduled to leave the game at that time anyway, but he did limp away from the field with the trainer by his side. The club later provided an update, describing Santander as day-to-day with a bruised knee. “I think he’s OK,” manager Brandon Hyde said, per Ruiz. If Santander isn’t seriously harmed, that would be good news for two clubs, as he’s set to play for Venezuela in the upcoming World Baseball Classic. Injuries dragged Santander down in 2021 but he stayed healthy last year and got back on track, hitting 33 home runs and finishing with a .240/.318/.455 batting line for a 120 wRC+.
- The White Sox are going to be without their closer for an unknown amount of time as Liam Hendriks is undergoing treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. They will have to figure out how to proceed in the meantime, but it doesn’t seem like there are any plans to have one set closer. “Absolutely not,” manager Pedro Grifol said to Scott Merkin of MLB.com. “That’s not how we are going to run it.” Many teams are bucking traditional closers these days, preferring to target their best pitchers to the best hitters in the opposing lineup, with the Sox perhaps leaning that way as well. Though there won’t be a set closer, some candidates for high leverage work will include Kendall Graveman, Aaron Bummer, Joe Kelly and Reynaldo López.
Latest On Felix Bautista
- Felix Bautista threw another bullpen session today, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes, as the Orioles closer was aiming to ramp up to 80-85 percent readiness. Bautista is still recovering from left knee problems that cropped up at the end of last season, as well as an offseason problem for strengthening his throwing shoulder. Today’s work marked Bautista’s sixth throwing session overall, so he appears to be on pace to reach his stated goal of making the Opening Day roster. Bautista’s first MLB season was a thorough success, as he posted a 2.19 ERA and an elite 34.8% strikeout rate (albeit with a below-average 9.1% walk rate) over 65 1/3 innings, becoming one of many breakout players for the surprising Orioles.
AL Notes: Chapman, Andrus, Orioles
Blue Jays third baseman Matt Chapman is entering his second and potentially final season in Toronto, as he looks set to hit free agency at season’s end. The 29-year-old addressed his long term future with the organization with Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star, saying he’s open to an extension but realistic about his future.
“I know the Blue Jays enjoy having me here and want to continue having me here,” Chapman said. “I know I want to continue to be here and be a part of this team. I’m sure conversations will be had along the way but, when I signed that two-year deal, I was anticipating they would have to pay Bo and Vladdy and all these young guys.”
With Manny Machado seemingly headed for the open market next winter, Chapman figures to be the second best third baseman available. Offensively he’s hit 27 home runs in each of the past two seasons, and has hit at least 24 in the last four 162-game seasons, while his glove has been worth 18 Outs Above Average over the past two seasons and 40 over his career. Another quality season should set Chapman up to do very well in free agency, whether that be for the Blue Jays or elsewhere.
Here’s some more bit and pieces from around the American League as full squad workouts begin:
- The White Sox made their signing of infielder Elvis Andrus official today, confirming the one-year, $3MM deal. General manager Rick Hahn addressed the signing with reporters (including Scott Merkin of MLB.com) in Arizona, confirming the expectation is that Andrus will be Chicago’s everyday second baseman. Leury Garcia, Romy Gonzalez, Yolbert Sanchez, Lenyn Sosa and non-roster invite Hanser Alberto were all the previous candidates to man second, but Andrus will bump some combination of those players into bench/utility roles. With Tim Anderson entrenched at shortstop, this will be the first time Andrus has logged time at another defensive position, as all of his career 16,606 innings in the field have come at short. There seems little doubt about Andrus’ ability to handle second of course, given his track record of quality glove work at the more demanding shortstop position.
- Speaking of free agency, Roch Kubatko of MASN reports that the Orioles are still involved in the free agency market, and have their eyes on a few major league players. Jurickson Profar stands out as comfortably the highest-profile player remaining in a very thin free agent field. Profar does make some sense as an upgrade over Austin Hays in left field, although it’s also not an obvious fit. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic did report back in January that the Orioles were involved in Profar, although they didn’t appear particularly confident of getting a deal done. Outside of Profar, there’s no available free agent who’d drastically alter Baltimore’s payroll for the upcoming season, but it is worth noting here CEO John Angelos’ comments about the team’s payroll moving forward.
Orioles CEO John Angelos Discusses Camden Lease, Ownership, Payroll, Extensions
Orioles CEO/chairman John Angelos met with reporters (including The Baltimore Sun’s Nathan Ruiz and Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com) today to discuss a wide range of topics regarding the franchise, its offseason moves, and the bigger-picture question of the Orioles’ long-term future in Baltimore.
To the latter subject, Angelos reiterated his family’s commitment to the ownership of the Orioles, saying “I would say that there’s not a plan to change the principal ownership or the managing partnership and there would be no reason to.” While a new minority owner might be brought into the ownership group, Angelos noted that such a move wouldn’t necessarily be unusual, given that some of the original investors in the group “have transitioned out” in the 30 years since Peter Angelos (John’s father) first brought the franchise and become majority owner.
“It would be nice if we could attract strategic people who care about Baltimore, who care about the way we’re doing this now, who care about the example Camden Yards set and want to be part of it,” Angelos said. “That’s not necessary or a requisite, but we’re open to it. We have no plan to change or transition out of what we have today.”
Some of the questions surrounding the Orioles’ ownership situation were raised by a lawsuit filled by Louis Angelos (John’s brother), who raised the possibility that John and his mother Georgia could possibly sell the team, or move the Orioles to Tennessee. Earlier this month, Louis’ lawsuit and the countersuit from Georgia Angelos were dropped, bringing an apparent end to a legal dispute. Unsurprisingly, John didn’t get into specifics about the lawsuits, other than to say “those things are distractions, and it’s unfortunate whenever they arise, but all good things going forward now.”
Angelos noted his longstanding commitment to Baltimore and his desire to finalize a new, longer-term lease for the Orioles at Camden Yards. The current lease is up after the 2023 season, since the O’s passed on their opportunity on February 1 to trigger a five-year lease extension.
Despite this ticking clock, Angelos has confidence that a new deal will be reached, saying that “the actual facility use agreement, renewing a 30-year-old document, that’s really a minor sidelight” to the Orioles’ larger plans for a more fully developed stadium-village type of project, given that Camden Yards is right next to M&T Bank Stadium, home of the NFL’s Baltimore Ravens. The ideal would be a thriving downtown area that provides value to the city, state, and the franchise beyond just gamedays.
“I have no doubt that we will relatively rapidly move towards the renewal of the public-private partnership and I would be very disappointed if I’m not able to work with the governor and his team…to make that happen in the next six months. I’d love to have that as an All-Star break gift for everybody, really,” Angelos said. “There’s just no there there other than we’re going to get that done. That’s always been one of the things I committed to and I have no intention of not seeing that happen. I know the governor and his folks are just as keen on it as we are.”
Making reference to himself as “here for the long haul” with the franchise, Angelos used the same terminology to describe GM Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde, implying some security with the contracts of both men. While specifics weren’t mentioned, Angelos said Elias and Hyde’s current deals aren’t “expiring in a year or two years or anything like that.”
Since the Orioles usually don’t publicize contract terms, not much is known about the nature of either agreement. For instance, Hyde initially signed a three-year deal as manager in December 2018, but he also inked an extension during the 2020-21 offseason — a fact that wasn’t reported until September 2021. Elias was hired a month before Hyde, and while terms were never released about the GM’s contract, it is fair to speculate that he might have gotten a relatively lengthy deal (say, four years) considering the wide scope of the rebuild project the Orioles were on the verge of entering. That said, Angelos’ comments hint that Elias might have signed an extension in the interim, keeping him in Baltimore through at least the 2025 season.
Locking up Elias and Hyde certainly seems like a no-brainer move given the progress the Orioles made in 2022. The first three seasons of the Elias/Hyde rebuild resulted in non-competitive seasons, but the O’s were a very respectable 83-79 last season. Star rookie Adley Rutschman has already established himself as a quality player, and Rutschman might be just the first of several top prospects the Orioles can hope can make a quick impact at the MLB level.
However, the immediate follow-up to this breakout season has been modest, since the O’s have had a relatively quiet offseason. According to Roster Resource, the Orioles’ projected $63.4MM payroll for 2023 is essentially the same as their year-end figure from 2022, since Chris Davis finally came off the team’s books following last season.
Angelos didn’t close the door on increased spending in the future, saying “Could payroll be double or triple what it is? Or could it be over 100 million? Yeah. We’re not there yet. We have a very young team that’s overachieved and overperformed because of the great work of our baseball folks.”
“Payroll, I think there’s a range there that Mike and his team have to determine. Do I have a role in that? Really only to make sure their recommendations are properly funded. We’re probably not going to have or is any other middle or small-market team going to have the payroll of the Mets or the Dodgers or even the Red Sox, certainly not the Yankees. That’s not an Oriole thing. That’s a small or middle-market team in this economic system.”
Citing other teams with notably lower payrolls, Angelos mentioned that the Guardians, Brewers, and Rays are teams that the O’s would like to emulate, since “we’re aiming for sustained success, and I think what you see in a place like Tampa, they have had sustained success….I would be disappointed if we’re not the next Tampa, which means being sustainably competitive and relevant.”
This might not be welcome news for Baltimore fans, who would certainly like to see their team become a regular contender but with the flexibility to spend at a much higher level than the Rays. The Orioles’ spending fluctuated when Peter Angelos had day-to-day control over the team, though the O’s had top-10 payrolls as recently as 2016 and 2017.
AL Notes: Twins, LeMahieu, Means
Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey told reporters, including Dan Hayes of The Athletic, that right-handed prospect Jordan Balazovic will miss the start of Spring Training due to a broken jaw stemming from “an altercation away from the field.” A source with the team indicated to Hayes that Balazovic suffered the injury following a verbal altercation last Saturday, though Balazovic did not retaliate physically. Balazovic underwent surgery and is currently unavailable, though he could begin to play catch in seven to 10 days.
Balazovic came into the 2022 season viewed as a consensus top 100 prospect but struggled mightily with injuries and ineffectiveness last year. He was out until May 1 last year with a knee injury and then struggled to a 7.68 ERA in 72 2/3 minor league innings last year while pitching almost exclusively at the Triple-A level. Now it appears his 2023 is off to a rocky start of its own. Fortunately for Minnesota, the club has an impressive amount of starting pitching depth, with Pablo Lopez, Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Kenta Maeda, and Bailey Ober all capable big league starters even with Chris Paddack set to spend most of the 2023 season on the injured list.
Elsewhere around the AL…
- Sticking with the Twins, center fielder Byron Buxton and first baseman Alex Kirilloff are both in places the club is comfortable with health-wise at this point in the spring, according to Hayes. Buxton is fully recovered from last year’s knee surgery and is playing without limitations, while Kirilloff, Falvey notes, is behind most other hitters as the organization plans on taking things slowly with him following his second wrist surgery, which Hayes notes was particularly intensive. Both figure to be part of the Twins Opening Day lineup if healthy, though the Twins acquired Michael A. Taylor earlier this offseason in part as insurance in center if Buxton continues to struggle to stay healthy, while rumors of the clubs interest in a veteran, right-handed complement to Kirilloff at first base have percolated throughout the offseason.
- Yankees infielder DJ LeMahieu talked with reporters this morning, including Erik Boland of Newsday Sports and Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. LeMahieu noted that he is at “100 percent” as he enters camp this spring, able to play with no limitations. In addition, LeMahieu says he’s excited to play in a utility role for the Yankees this season. With Anthony Rizzo at first base and Gleyber Torres at second, while Oswald Peraza, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa all expected to mix and match at shortstop and with Josh Donaldson at third base, at least until top prospect Anthony Volpe is ready to contribute, LeMahieu figures to pick up playing time at each of first base, second base, and third base this season. LeMahieu played second base almost exclusively prior to signing with the Yankees ahead of the 2019 season, but since then has moved around the infield more often, racking up 872 innings of work at first base and 1,171 innings at third base in a Yankees uniform.
- While Orioles left-hander John Means won’t factor into the Baltimore Opening Day rotation, he certainly seems to be on the right track to have an impact on the club at some point this season. Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters, including Roch Kubatko of MASN, that means will begin throwing off a half mound sometime in the coming week. Means has had the look of a solid mid-rotation starter since taking on a full-time role in 2019, pitching to a 3.72 ERA (124 ERA+) in 353 1/3 innings over that time while earning an All Star appearance and finishing second in AL Rookie of the Year voting for his 2019 season, where he posted a 3.60 ERA (131 ERA+) in 155 innings of work. Whenever Means is ready to return, he’ll be a welcome addition to a rotation that saw Kyle Gibson replace outgoing veteran righty Jordan Lyles and added lefty Cole Irvin in a trade with Oakland this offseason.
Pitching Notes: Bello, Bautista, Severino, McCullers
With pitchers and catchers having now reported to their respective spring training sites, there’s a fair bit of news around the health of a number of pitchers around the sport.
Red Sox right-hander Brayan Bello will take the weekend off throwing, and hopes to be able to throw again Monday, per Sean McAdam of the Boston Sports Journal. Bello apparently felt tightness in his forearm this week. Any time tightness and forearm are mentioned in the same sentence regarding a young pitcher there’s a fair bit of concern, but Bello says he believes it’s due to throwing a higher number of breaking balls of late.
In any case, he’ll be shutdown temporarily and the Red Sox and Bello will be hoping he’s good to go next week. Bello figures to compete for a spot in the Red Sox’ starting rotation this year. The 23-year-old made 11 solid starts (and two relief appearances) last season, working to a 4.71 ERA with a 20.5% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate.
Here’s a few other injury tidbits from around the sport:
- Orioles closer Felix Bautista told reporters, including Jake Rill of MLB.com, that he expects to be ready for opening day. Bautista has spent the winter rehabbing left knee and right shoulder injuries, and has thrown four bullpen sessions since January. He’s believes he’ll be ready to get into spring matches around March 15, and will need four or five spring innings to get up to speed. Bautista was dominant for the Orioles during his rookie year last season, pitching to a 2.19 ERA across 65 2/3 innings, striking out batters at a quality 34.8% clip.
- Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. has been shut down temporarily following him experiencing some soreness in his throwing arm (via Mark Berman of Fox 26). There’s always a bit of concern there particularly given McCullers’ injury history, but manager Dusty Baker gave reporters a promising outlook “he’s just getting treatment. He’s feeling pretty good. He’s feeling better.” McCullers is into his eighth season with the Astros. A forearm strain suffered in 2021 limited him to just eight starts in 2022, but he still worked to an impressive 2.27 ERA in those handful of appearances.
- Yankees starter Luis Severino is entering his walk year, so naturally hoping for a strong, and healthy, campaign. After missing the bulk of three-straight seasons, Severino returned to make 19 starts last year, working to a 3.18 ERA. A lat strain sidelined him for two months of the season, but the Yankees were unsurprisingly happy to exercise the $15MM club option they held over the 28-year-old ahead of the 2023 season. While the significant injury history won’t help, a full season of ~30 starts of his typically excellent output could set Severino up for a big payday next winter. “Health is always the question with him. I feel like he’s done everything he needs to this offseason. He’s been around Tampa. He’s been at the complex. He’s getting his work in. Physically, he looks like he’s in a good spot. I think everything we’ve wanted out of him this offseason, he’s answered the bell. He’s ready to go this year. We feel good about the way he’s reported,” pitching coach Matt Blake told Brendan Kuty of The Athletic. The Yankees are depending even more so on a healthy season from Severino after the news that Frankie Montas will miss the majority of the year as he recovers from shoulder surgery.
Orioles Provide Health Updates On Several Pitchers
Orioles general manager Mike Elias met with the media as pitchers and catchers report to the team’s spring training facility in Sarasota, Fla., and the GM provided a handful of less-than-ideal updates regarding his pitching staff. Most notably, righty Dillon Tate sustained a forearm/flexor strain in late November and is expected to miss at least the first month of the season (Twitter link via Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun). Tate will open the year on the 15-day injured list.
Meanwhile, closer Felix Bautista has spent the winter rehabbing from the left knee injury that ended his season and has also been on a strengthening program for his right shoulder (Twitter link via MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko). His spring debut will be delayed, so he’s not a lock to be ready by Opening Day. Top prospect DL Hall is also behind schedule after experiencing some lower lumber discomfort about three weeks ago (via Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner). Elias didn’t rule out the possibility that southpaw Nick Vespi, who underwent surgery to repair a hernia in early January, would be ready for Opening Day, but that’s not a given either.
Tate’s injury status is presently the largest blow to the club, as he quietly stepped up as a high-end setup piece for Bautista in 2022. The former No. 4 overall draft pick logged a career-high 73 2/3 innings while recording a tidy 3.05 ERA. Tate picked up 16 holds and five saves, offsetting a below-average 20.5% strikeout rate with excellent walk and ground-ball rates of 5.5% and 57.1%, respectively.
The Orioles and Tate agreed to a $1.5MM salary earlier in the offseason, avoiding an arbitration hearing in Tate’s first trip through the process. He’s under control through the 2025 campaign and had previously looked to be in the running for Baltimore’s top setup option to Bautista. At least in the season’s early stages, some of those high-leverage innings that would’ve gone to Tate will now instead fall to veteran Mychal Givens — who returned to the O’s on a one-year free agent deal this winter — and lefty Cionel Perez.
Speaking of Bautista, there’s no firm indication that he’ll miss any regular-season time just yet, but even a short-term absence would be a notable hit to the bullpen. The 27-year-old hadn’t pitched above A-ball until 2021, when he posted a combined 1.54 ERA across three minor league levels, topping out with just 18 1/3 frames in Triple-A. That, apparently, was all the upper-minors seasoning he needed; Bautista not only made the Orioles’ Opening Day roster in 2022 but almost immediately broke out as one of the game’s top relievers.
In 65 2/3 innings last season, Bautista notched an outstanding 2.19 ERA and tallied the first 15 saves of his career. He averaged an obscene 99.3 mph on both his four-seamer and his sinker, which played a huge role in the right-hander’s gaudy 34.8% strikeout rate. Unlike many flamethrowers who lack any semblance of precision with their high-octane heaters, Bautista turned in a 9.1% walk rate that matched the league-average walk rate for relief pitchers. Obviously, it’s discouraging to hear that last year’s knee issue required what was apparently a relatively lengthy rehab process, but to this point the O’s haven’t broadcast any reason for major concern, either.
As for Hall, the back troubles could throw a wrench into his bid for a spot in the team’s rotation to begin the season. The former first-round pick (No. 21 in 2017) has stated at multiple points this winter that his goal is to win a starting job to begin the season. Given his prospect status and the general uncertainty on the Orioles’ staff behind Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin, that seemed plausible, but expectations should likely be tempered until it becomes clearer as to when Hall’s spring regiment can begin in earnest.
The 24-year-old Hall made his MLB debut last season, starting one game and making ten relief appearances. In 13 1/3 frames, he was tagged for nine runs on 17 hits and six walks. The resulting 5.93 ERA was an eyesore, but Hall flashed huge strikeout potential by fanning 19 of the 64 batters he faced (29.7%). He hasn’t any problems missing bats in the minors, either, evidenced by a mammoth 43.4% strikeout rate in 35 1/3 career Double-A frames as well as a 36.1% mark in 76 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level.
Where Hall has struggled — and struggled repeatedly — is with his command. The lefty has walked an untenable 13.4% of his opponents across parts of five minor league seasons, including an even more troublesome 14.2% mark in Triple-A. That lack of command has prompted many scouting reports to peg Hall for a future in the bullpen, but the O’s are understandably intent on giving him a legitimate opportunity to stick as a starter. He’s been used almost exclusively as a starter in the minors, with 69 of his 77 total appearances coming out of the rotation.
If Hall is behind schedule to the point that he can’t be ready for a big league rotation spot early in the year, that’ll create additional opportunities for Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Spenser Watkins, Bruce Zimmermann, Mike Baumann and top prospect Grayson Rodriguez. That said, so long as Hall’s back injury doesn’t prove too serious, he’ll likely get an opportunity early in the season. He and Rodriguez are the organization’s top two pitching prospects, and while Rodriguez (arguably the sport’s top all-around pitching prospect) is typically held in higher regard, Hall nevertheless landed in the No. 75 spot on Baseball America’s 2023 Top 100 prospect rankings.
