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Burch Smith, Daniel Johnson Elect Free Agency

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The Orioles announced that right-hander Burch Smith and outfielder Daniel Johnson have both elected free agency rather than accept outright assignments. There hadn’t been any reporting about either player being removed from the roster but apparently the O’s quietly passed each through waivers quietly in recent days.

Smith, 34, started the year on a minor league deal with the Rays. He had an upward mobility clause in that deal and triggered it at the end of spring training, getting flipped to the Marlins. He stuck with the Fish through the middle of June before getting released and landing with the O’s.

Between those two clubs, he managed to toss 56 1/3 innings this year, allowing 4.95 earned runs per nine. His 19% strikeout rate was subpar but his 5% walk rate was quite strong and his 43.8% ground ball rate around league average. His 63.2% strand rate was a bit on the unlucky side, which was a factor in his 3.66 FIP and 3.79 SIERA being more than a run better than his ERA.

The O’s could have retained Smith via arbitration for 2025, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a $1.6MM salary next year. It appears the O’s didn’t have any intention of doing that, so they put Smith on waivers as an effective early non-tender.

Players with at least three years of service time or a previous career outright have the right to reject further outright assignments and elect free agency. Smith qualifies on both counts and chose to exercise his right.

Some things last a long time but not Johnson’s tenure on the Baltimore roster. He signed a minor league deal with the club in the offseason and had his contract selected on September 21. He got into that day’s game as a pinch runner and later grounded out. He was optioned the next day, making that his only plate appearance of the season.

He has a fairly limited major league track record, also spending some time with Cleveland in 2020 and 2021. He hit 21 home runs in exactly 500 plate appearances at Triple-A this year and slashed .259/.320/.448, but that actually translated to a subpar 97 wRC+ in this year’s inflated offensive environment in the International League.

Johnson still has less than a year of service time and could have been cheaply retained for next year but the O’s decided to move on instead. As a player with a previous career outright, he has the right to reject further outright assignments and exercised that right to return to the open market.

Orioles Acquire Daz Cameron From Athletics

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The Athletics have traded outfielder Daz Cameron to the Orioles in exchange for cash considerations, according to announcements from both clubs. This will be Cameron’s second stint in the Orioles organization.

Cameron, the son of All-Star outfielder Mike Cameron, was a highly-regarded prospect in the 2015 draft. The Astros selected him 37th overall but gave him a $4MM signing bonus, a number much closer to the slot value of the fifth overall pick (which Houston used on Kyle Tucker) rather than a competitive balance round selection. Yet, Cameron has never been able to live up to his top-prospect billing. The Astros sent him to the Tigers in 2017 as a part of the trade package for Justin Verlander, and he made his MLB debut with Detroit three years later. Over parts of three seasons with the Tigers, he put up a meager .201/.266/.330 slash line with a 66 wRC+ in 73 games.

After the 2022 season, the Tigers designated Cameron for assignment, and the Orioles scooped him up off of waivers. They quickly removed him from the 40-man roster but kept him in the organization and gave him an invitation to spring training. However, he failed to earn a spot on the roster out of camp and spent the 2023 season with the Triple-A Norfolk Tides, slashing a serviceable .268/.346/.452 with a 98 wRC+ over 110 games. He showed off relatively good plate discipline (21.3% strikeout rate, 9.6% walk rate) and plus speed (23 stolen bases in 29 attempts), but it wasn’t quite enough to get him back on the 40-man roster.

Cameron posted monster numbers with the Athletics’ Triple-A club this past season, hitting .304/.424/.577 (149 wRC+) with six homers, eight steals and a gaudy 16.4% walk rate in 41 games. He parlayed that into a look in the majors but wasn’t able to capitalize, batting just .200/.258/.329 during his 66 games (186 plate appearances) as an Athletic.

Orioles GM Mike Elias was the Astros’ scouting director when Cameron was selected 37th overall by Houston in 2015 and clearly still thinks well of the player. It seems unlikely that Baltimore would carry the out-of-options Cameron into next season, but the O’s have a habit of making early-offseason depth acquisitions, signing those players to a split contract for the upcoming season and then passing them through waivers. It’s possible they could look to go down a similar path with Cameron, who’d be eligible to reject an assignment in favor of free agency if he ultimately does pass through waivers.

MLBTR Podcast: The Mets’ Spending Power, Juan Soto Suitors, And The Rangers’ Payroll Limits

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns recently addressed the club’s financial situation (2:00)
  • Does the spending capacity of the Mets make them favorites for Juan Soto? (16:00)
  • The Rangers are reportedly hoping to duck beneath the competitive balance tax in 2025 (23:00)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Which impending free agent has earned the biggest pay raise by his performance in the current postseason? (30:30)
  • Could the Cardinals get Ryan Mountcastle from the Orioles in a deal for Ryan Helsley to fill the void at first? (36:40)
  • Could Rowdy Tellez be a fit for the Tigers? (38:50)
  • Should Justin Verlander switch into a closer’s role? (41:10)
  • Details on what’s coming up soon at MLBTR, including the Top 50 Free Agents, top trade candidates and a megapod (43:25)

Check out our past episodes!

  • The World Series, The White Sox Reportedly For Sale, And Tropicana Field – listen here
  • Changes In Minnesota, Cubs’ Prospect Depth, And Possibilities For The O’s – listen here
  • Previewing FA Starting Pitchers, TV Deals, And Potential Spending Teams – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Orioles Notes: Leonsis, Holliday

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  • Ted Leonsis looked into buying the Orioles when the Angelos family put the team up for sale, the Washington Post’s Rick Maese write as part of a long profile of the billionaire.  Already the owner of the NHL’s Washington Capitals and NBA’s Washington Wizards, Leonsis was heavily considered as the prime contender to buy the Nationals when the Lerner family announced they were looking into selling the team in April 2022, though the family reversed course last February and said the Nats were no longer for sale.  Leonsis reiterated earlier this year and within Maese’s piece that he remains interested in the Nationals if the Lerners do decide to sell, though it also makes sense that he would’ve at least checked into the Orioles once they came on the market.
  • Jackson Holliday had some success after adopting a toe tap into his swing late in the 2024 season, and the Orioles shortstop told Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun that he’ll now look to continue using this adapted approach next season.  Though Holliday had used the toe-top technique on occasion during his high school days, he gave it another shot while “just messing around in the cage, trying to imitate [Shohei] Ohtani,” but Holliday then felt quite comfortable with his swing.  Holliday hit only .189/.255/.311 over his first 208 plate appearances in the big leagues, striking out 69 times as pitchers took advantage of the big leg kick Holliday used in his old swing.  Obviously it’s too soon to tell if this adjustment might truly unlock something for Holliday, but as he heads into his sophomore season, the sky is still the limit for the first overall pick of the 2022 draft.

Rudy May Passes Away

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Former MLB pitcher Rudy May passed away earlier this week at the age of 80, according to an obituary published in local North Carolina newspaper The Daily Advance. Jeff Pearlman first reported May’s passing yesterday. A veteran of 16 MLB seasons, May pitched for the Angels, Yankees, Orioles, and Expos during his lengthy career in the big leagues.

A left-handed pitcher, May grew up in Oakland alongside childhood friend and future Hall of Famer Joe Morgan. He impressed as one of the best pitchers in the area during his high school days before being signed by a Twins scout in 1962 and subsequently selected in the first-year player draft by the White Sox in 1963. By the end of 1964, May was already on the fourth organization of his professional career as he was traded to the Phillies by the White Sox ahead of the Rule 5 draft before being flipped to the Angels shortly thereafter.

It was with Anaheim that May finally made his big league debut in 1965, and the then-20-year-old hurler posted decent but unexceptional numbers in his rookie campaign. In 30 appearances (including 19 starts), May logged 124 innings of work but surrendered a pedestrian 3.92 ERA, which was 14% below average in the era just before the year of the pitcher in 1968. That would be May’s only big league action for years due to injuries he suffered in the minor leagues in 1965, but he eventually resurfaced at the big league level as a 24-year-old in 1969. That year, May posted a league average 3.44 ERA in 180 1/3 innings of work that solidified his spot on the Angels’ roster, and he’d spend the next five seasons as a quality back-of-the-rotation arms for the club with a 3.51 ERA (96 ERA+) across 948 2/3 innings of work.

He once again began the season with the Angels in 1974, but a brutal 7.00 ERA in his first 27 innings of work that year upon being pushed into a bullpen role prompted the club to deal him to the Yankees that summer. May experienced a revival in New York down the stretch, dominating the competition to the tune of a 2.28 ERA (156 ERA+) with 90 strikeouts in 114 1/3 innings of work over his 17 appearances (15 starts) in the Bronx following the trade. He followed up on that performance with an excellent 1975 season where he pitched to a 3.06 ERA (122 ERA+) in 212 innings of work in a mid-rotation role behind club ace (and future Hall of Famer) Catfish Hunter. Unfortunately, a step back in performance in 1976 led May to be traded once again, this time to the Orioles.

That 1976 season kicked off something of a lull in May’s career, as he reverted to the back-of-the-rotation form he had shown throughout his time with the Angels. In three seasons split between the Yankees, Orioles, and Expos from 1976 to 1978, May pitched to a pedestrian 3.71 ERA in 99 appearances, 92 of which were starts, and racked up 616 innings of work. That led the veteran southpaw to be moved to a relief role during his second year with the Expos in 1979, but the lefty dominated in the role with a sterling 2.31 ERA (160 ERA+) in 93 2/3 innings of work across 33 appearances, only seven of which were starts.

He’d continue to pitch in that sort of hybrid role upon being re-acquired by the Yankees in 1980, which turned out to be perhaps the best season of his career. Although May started only 17 of his 41 games played that year, he posted phenomenal numbers in the role as he led the American League with a 2.46 ERA (160 ERA+) while throwing 175 1/3 frames. The 1980 season also saw May, then 35, appear in the postseason for the first time in his career. The lefty was dealt a tough-luck loss in Game 2 of the ALCS against the Royals that October, as the Yankees lost 3-2 despite May pitching eight strong innings of three-run ball.

He’d return to the postseason in 1981 on the heels of a lackluster regular season, but this time he and the Yankees enjoyed some success. May made a solid relief appearance against the Brewers in the ALDS before posting a lackluster start against Oakland in the ALCS, but when the Yankees made it to the World Series opposite the Dodgers he managed to turn in 6 1/3 strong relief innings across three appearances even as his club eventually lost in six games. Overall, May posted a respectable 3.66 ERA with 15 strikeouts in 19 2/3 postseason innings during those years with the Yankees, which wound up being the only postseason outings of his career.

May pitched two more years with the Yankees following the club’s loss in the 1981 World Series and enjoyed a strong rebound campaign in 1982, and though he re-signed with New York on a two-year contract he made just 15 appearances in 1983 due to injury and missed the entire 1984 season with back issues before retirement. In all, May appeared in 535 games at the big league level and drew the start in 360 of those contests. He pitched to an above-average 3.46 ERA during his career and collected 152 wins and 1760 strikeouts across his 2622 innings of work in the majors. Those of us at MLBTR extend our condolences to May’s family, friends and loved ones.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

We looked at the candidates for a qualifying offer on the position player side yesterday. Today, it’s a look at the pitchers, where there are a couple borderline calls.

No-Doubters

These are the easiest QO decisions in the pitching class. Burnes and Fried are two of the three best pitchers available. (Blake Snell is ineligible.) They’ll reject the QO just as easily as their teams make the offer. Burnes will set his sights on a $200MM+ deal, while Fried should land five or six years well into nine figures.

As a revenue sharing recipient, Baltimore will get the top compensation if Burnes signs elsewhere for more than $50MM: a pick after the first round in next summer’s draft. Atlanta exceeded the luxury tax threshold, so they’ll receive minimal compensation. The Braves would get a selection after the fourth round if Fried departs.

Likely

Manaea will hit free agency once he makes the easy call to decline his $13.5MM player option. The southpaw ran with a full rotation opportunity in Queens after spending most of the ’23 season working in multi-inning relief with San Francisco. Manaea took all 32 turns and logged 181 2/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball. He fanned a quarter of his opponents against an 8.5% walk rate while running a solid 11.7% swinging strike percentage. Manaea was dominant down the stretch, working to a 3.16 ERA while holding opponents to a .182/.251/.327 slash after July 1.

The veteran left-hander turns 33 in February. He should be in line for at least a three-year deal. Four is a real possibility. It’s hard to see Manaea accepting a QO. If he did, the Mets would probably be happy to have him back for just over $21MM (although it’d be a $44MM+ commitment after luxury taxes). This isn’t quite a lock to the same extent as the Burnes and Fried calls, but it’d be surprising if the Mets didn’t make the offer.

Borderline Calls

Severino is a trickier call for New York. He signed a one-year, $13MM pillow contract last offseason. Like Manaea, he stayed healthy and provided 30+ starts of mid-rotation production. Severino worked to a 3.91 earned run average through 182 innings. He was markedly better than he’d been during his final season with the Yankees. Still, it wasn’t a return to the form he’d shown early in his career in the Bronx.

The 30-year-old righty struck out a league average 21.2% of opposing hitters. He kept the ball on the ground at a solid 46% clip while walking just under 8% of batters faced. Those are all decent but not outstanding peripherals. Severino continued to struggle to miss bats on a per-pitch basis. His 9.4% swinging strike rate ranked 91st out of 126 pitchers with 100+ innings. Severino still has plus velocity, but his production is more in line with that of a third or fourth starter than a top-of-the-rotation force.

New York could be fine with that. If the Mets expect him to repeat this year’s production, $21.05MM is a decent investment. It’d again be $44MM+ after taxes, but Steve Cohen hasn’t shied away from huge CBT bills. Severino could be the player whose market value is most affected by whether he receives the QO. There are parallels to where Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker stood as free agents. Neither of those pitchers got a qualifying offer; they each landed four-year deals in the $70MM range. That kind of contract would be a tougher sell if a team is also giving up a draft pick.

The Mets would only get a post-fourth round pick as compensation if Severino declines the QO and walks. That’s not much. It’d be a prospect who might sneak into their organizational top 30. The offer is only worthwhile if the Mets would be happy to have Severino back at that price point. We’ll see in a few weeks how highly they value him.

Wacha’s two-year, $32MM free agent deal allows him to opt out after this season. The veteran righty should retest the market after a strong year in Kansas City. He turned in a 3.35 ERA across 166 2/3 innings. Wacha missed a bit of time in June with a small fracture in his left foot, but he was otherwise durable. It’s the second-highest inning total of his career and his third straight season allowing fewer than 3.50 earned runs per nine.

It’s not the flashiest profile. Wacha’s swing-and-miss and grounder rates are just alright. He has plus control and generally does a strong job avoiding hard contact. He’s not going to be valued as an ace, but he continues to churn out quality results despite playing on his sixth team in as many years.

An offer just north of $21MM might feel rich for Kansas City, but it’s not that much higher than the $16MM salary which they paid Wacha this past season. The Royals got what they wanted in year one, as Wacha joined Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo as a rotation nucleus that helped push them to a surprise trip to the AL Division Series.

This is a situation where the player accepting a qualifying offer might work out well for everyone involved. It’d give Wacha a $5MM+ raise and allow him to spend multiple seasons with a team for the first time since he left the Cardinals in 2019. Kansas City could keep their rotation intact. If the Royals don’t make the QO, Wacha has a shot at three years and a guarantee above $40MM going into his age-33 campaign. That’d be less likely if he’s attached to draft compensation.

Long Shots

Bieber could’ve been a QO candidate had he been healthy. He blew out after two fantastic starts and underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Bieber could return in the first half of next season, but he’d probably accept a qualifying offer. That’s likely too risky for Cleveland, though they could try to bring him back on an incentive-laden deal that allows him to approach $20MM if he stays healthy.

Hoffman is one of the best relievers in the class. He has had a dominant two-year run with Philadelphia, working to a 2.28 ERA in 118 2/3 innings. There’s no precedent for teams making a qualifying offer to non-closing relievers, though. The rare reliever QO has generally gone to pitchers with longer track records than Hoffman possesses and at least one full season of closing experience (i.e. Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias, Will Smith, Greg Holland, Wade Davis, Kenley Jansen).

Martinez is going to decline a $12MM player option with Cincinnati. If he doesn’t get the QO, he’ll get another multi-year deal that could push beyond $30MM. Martinez had a third consecutive strong season, turning in a 3.10 ERA over 142 1/3 innings while working in a swing role. He started 16 of 42 appearances. If the Reds were committed to giving Martinez a rotation spot, there’d be an argument for the offer. A salary north of $21MM is a hefty sum for a player who has never really held a full-time starting job in MLB, though. The Reds spent around $100MM on player payroll this year. If they stay in that range, a Martinez QO would risk tying up more than 20% of their budget.

Pivetta has been durable and routinely posts plus strikeout and walk rates. He throws hard, misses bats and fares well in the eyes of ERA estimators that place a heavy emphasis on a pitcher’s K/BB profile. Nevertheless, he’s never had a season with a sub-4.00 earned run average. Pivetta gives up a bunch of hard contact and always allows more home runs than the average pitcher. He’s a solid innings eater, but the Sox have had four-plus seasons to try to unlock another gear and haven’t been able to do so. He’d likely accept the QO if offered. Boston probably prefers to keep that money in reserve and look for a clearer top-of-the-rotation arm.

Ineligible

Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. Eovaldi, Scherzer and Snell each have a previous QO. Snell and Eovaldi would’ve been easy calls if they could’ve received them.

The midseason trade took the QO off the table for Flaherty, Kikuchi and Scott. The latter wouldn’t have gotten one from the Marlins in either case, but he’s the top reliever in the class. Flaherty would’ve been a lock for the QO if the Tigers hadn’t traded him at the deadline. Getting moved to the Dodgers gives him a chance to pitch in the World Series and took draft compensation off the table for his return trip to free agency. Kikuchi dominated after a deadline deal to the Astros and could command something like the QO salary on a three-year deal covering his ages 34-36 seasons.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

No-Doubters

There’s zero suspense with this quintet. They’re going to receive qualifying offers, which they’ll easily decline. Soto is on his way to a record-setting deal. Adames and Bregman are locks for nine figures. Alonso has a solid chance to get there as well. It’s tougher to envision a $100MM contract for Santander, but he shouldn’t have any issue securing three or four years at an average annual value that’s around the QO price. As revenue sharing recipients, the Brewers and Orioles will get picks after the first round in the 2025 draft (assuming Adames and Santander sign for more than $50MM). The Mets, Yankees and Astros all paid the luxury tax and would only get a pick after the fourth round if they lose their qualified free agents.

Likely Recipients

We placed Hernández in the “likely” bucket last offseason when he was coming off a down year with the Mariners. Seattle opted not to make the QO and let him walk, citing a desire to cut back on the swing-and-miss profile that Hernández brings. That paved the way for the Dodgers to add him on a heavily deferred $23.5MM pillow contract. It was one of the best value signings of the winter. Hernández returned to peak form, bopping a career-best 33 homers with a .272/.339/.501 line through 652 plate appearances. That’s more than enough power to live with a few strikeouts and a fringy defensive profile in the corner outfield.

The cherry on top for L.A. is that Hernández remains eligible for the QO in his return to free agency. The Dodgers could accommodate a $21MM salary in the unlikely event that he accepts. As luxury tax payors, they’d only receive a pick after the fourth round in next year’s draft if he declines and walks. That minimal compensation is the biggest reason Hernández isn’t a lock, but he’s very likely to decline the QO in search of three or four years. The downside if he accepts is that he returns at a similar price point to the one Los Angeles offered coming off a rough season. Opting against the QO only makes sense if the Dodgers are fully committed to giving Andy Pages a look in left field next season.

Walker has seized upon a late-career opportunity with the Diamondbacks to develop into one of the sport’s best first basemen. He’s a Gold Glove caliber defender who topped 30 homers in both 2022 and ’23. He’d have gotten there again this season if not for an oblique injury that cost him the entire month of August. Walker had to “settle” for 26 homers with a .251/.335/.468 slash over 130 games.

The South Carolina product turns 34 just after Opening Day. He’s looking at four years at most and could wind up signing for two or three seasons. That could come at a comparable AAV to the qualifying offer price, though, and this is likely Walker’s only chance to really cash in on a multi-year contract. He’d likely decline a QO. If he didn’t, the D-Backs should be happy to have him back for another season at just over $21MM. The majority of MLBTR readers agree; more than 70% of respondents in a poll over the weekend opined that the Diamondbacks should make the offer.

Long Shots

It’s tough to see a qualifying offer for anyone in this group. Goldschmidt is the least likely. The Cardinals are entering a retooling year and he’s coming off the worst season of his career. The former MVP hit better in the second half than he did in the first. He should land a strong one-year deal but isn’t likely to get to $21MM.

Kim looked like a lock for the QO before suffering a late-season labrum injury in his throwing shoulder. He underwent surgery that’ll almost certainly sideline him into the early part of next year. There’s a decent chance he’d accept, which isn’t a great outcome for a Padres team that may enter the offseason already up against the budget. Payroll is a similar concern regarding Profar, who is coming off easily the best season of his career. He’s been wildly inconsistent throughout his decade-plus in the big leagues. San Diego baseball operations president A.J. Preller loves Profar, but $21MM+ is a lot for a team with a massive arbitration class and needs at shortstop and in the rotation. The Padres could try to bring him back for three or four years at a lesser annual hit.

O’Neill had a productive season for the Sox, hitting 31 homers with a .241/.336/.511 slash. He added three more IL stints to his lengthy career injury history, though, and the overwhelming majority of his production came against left-handed pitching. O’Neill’s righty bat provides a nice balance in a Boston lineup that skews heavily to the left side, but the QO price feels steep for this profile. There’s a strong chance he’d accept.

Torres would not have warranted a mention on this list a couple months ago. He had an excellent finish to the regular season (.306/.375/.417 after August 1) and has a .297/.400/.432 slash with more walks than strikeouts in October. That’s enough to at least get him back on the radar, but a QO still feels like a stretch. He’s a poor defensive second baseman whose overall season line — .257/.330/.378 in 665 plate appearances — was essentially league average.

At the trade deadline, the Yankees seemed set to turn the keystone to Jazz Chisholm Jr. and let Torres walk. They could keep Chisholm at the hot corner, but they’d need to overlook the flaws Torres showed for a good portion of the regular season. There’s a strong chance he’d accept a QO, which would put the Yanks on the hook for more than $44MM after accounting for the corresponding luxury tax hit. Tying that money up a week into an offseason where they’ll face a massive bidding war on Soto probably isn’t happening. That’s especially true since the compensation they’d receive if Torres declines (a pick after the fourth round) isn’t particularly valuable.

Ineligible

Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. That’s largely a moot point with regard to the position player class, as no one from this group was likely to receive one anyways. Bellinger probably won’t opt out of the two years and $50MM left on his deal with the Cubs. Conforto and Pederson would’ve been fringe candidates at best even if they hadn’t received the offer earlier in their careers.

Orioles Notes: Bautista, Rogers, Anderson

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The Orioles enter the 2024-25 offseason on the heels of a disappointing end to their season where they fell out of the AL East race late in the year before failing to win a playoff game against the Royals during the Wild Card Series. While that disappointing end to the season in conjunction with the impending free agencies of key pieces like Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander is surely worrisome for fans in Baltimore, there is one major silver lining regarding the club’s 2025 outlook: the impending return of closer Felix Bautista

Bautista, 29, was perhaps the single most dominant bullpen arm on the planet in 2023 when he made his first career All-Star appearance and pitched to a jaw-dropping 1.48 ERA with a 1.88 FIP with a ridiculous 46.4% strikeout rate in 61 innings of work. Unfortunately, the dominant closer underwent Tommy John surgery in early October of last year and missed not only the 2023 postseason but all of 2024, as well. He figures to be back on the mound for Baltimore in 2025, though, and MASN’s Roch Kubatko relayed earlier today that Bautista is currently on track to be “full-go” in time for Spring Training in February. That’s a great sign for the Orioles, particularly given the fact that their bullpen took a major step back this past year as they tried to replace Bautista in the closer role with veteran closer Craig Kimbrel, who pitched quite well in the first half of the season but fell apart in mid-July, surrendering an 11.50 ERA with a 7.44 FIP in his final 18 innings of work before being designated for assignment in September.

Bautista may not be the only boost the club’s bullpen gets entering next year, either. The Orioles paid a hefty price to acquire lefty Trevor Rogers from the Marlins, surrendering well-regarded youngsters Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby to seal the deal. Rogers struggled badly in his first taste of action with the Orioles, however, surrendering 16 runs (15 earned) in 19 innings of work across four starts with the team before being demoted to Triple-A. That brutal stint in the club’s rotation raised some questions about the club’s future plans for Rogers, who is under control via arbitration through the end of the 2026 season. Kubatko offered some insight on the club’s thinking, noting that while the Orioles have not yet given up on the possibility that Rogers can pitch in the rotation the club also figures to weigh the value he could bring to the club as a long reliever.

That makes Rogers one of a handful of potential rotation options who will be fighting for a role with the big league club next spring. Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, and Dean Kremer all seem like to be part of the club’s rotation on Opening Day 2025, leaving two spots up for grabs. It seems likely that the Orioles will pursue an external addition either via free agency or on the trade market to fill at least one of those spots, but the club does have a handful of internal options for the back of their rotation even beyond Rogers. Albert Suarez enjoyed something of a breakout season in a swing role with the club at age-34, pitching to a solid 3.70 ERA in 133 2/3 innings of work this year while drawing 24 starts and making an additional eight relief appearances.

Other factors in the club’s rotation mix, if not out of Spring Training then at some point in 2025, figure to be youngsters Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott, both of whom made their big league debuts in 2024 to somewhat lackluster results. McDermott surrendered three runs on five hits (including a homer) and two walks while striking out three in four innings of work during his lone big league appearance this year, while Povich surrendered a 5.20 ERA with a 4.79 FIP in sixteen starts with the Orioles this year. Despite those bumpy debuts, however, the youngsters could still be utilized either as depth in the rotation or as long relief options out of the bullpen should they fail to earn a spot in the rotation out of camp this spring.

One other potential bullpen arm Kubatko suggests could be worth keeping an eye on is veteran right-hander Nick Anderson. Anderson, 34, was once a highly-regarded hurler for the Rays but missed time in recent years due to elbow surgery, plantar fasciitis, and shoulder issues. He pitched 35 2/3 innings for the Royals this year with a middling 4.04 ERA but a worrisome 5.06 FIP before being released by the Royals in late July. Anderson joined the Orioles on a minor league deal in the final days of August, but made just two appearances at the Triple-A level before being sidelined due to an injury and ultimately failed to make the big league club. While Anderson is currently scheduled to reach free agency following the World Series, Kubatko suggests that the club could look to re-sign him, presumably on a fresh minor league deal.

Orioles Notes: Rubenstein, German

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“I’m now 75 years old.  It’s unlikely that I’ll be, you know, doing this for 20 more years,” Orioles majority owner David Rubenstein said in a recent interview with NPR (hat tip to Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball).  “So I’ve got to speed up the effort to get [to] a World Series a lot sooner than maybe some younger owners would.”

This might be one of the clearer indications yet that the Orioles are in for their busiest offseasons in a long time, especially since the team is now coming off a pair of playoff appearances with nary a single win from five total postseason games.  This is Rubenstein’s first winter since his ownership bought the team, and as GM Mike Elias implied during his end-of-season press conference, the O’s will have a lot more to spend than in recent years during the club’s rebuild, when the Angelos family was still in charge.

  • Sticking with the Orioles, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes that the O’s “had no interest” in right-hander Domingo German in the past, which runs contrary to a report from the New York Post’s Mark W. Sanchez from last January.  German signed with the Pirates on a minors contract last winter and had only a 7.84 ERA in seven appearances and 20 2/3 innings on the big league roster in 2024.  Pittsburgh outrighted German off its 40-man roster in September and he elected free agency earlier this week.  Given his poor recent results and his troubled off-the-field history, it remains to be seen if any MLB teams will take a flier on German for another minor league deal.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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The Orioles got off to a strong start in 2024 but were only two games above .500 over their final 100 contests. They still finished with 91 wins, third-most in the American League, but their season ended in disappointment. For the second year in a row, the Orioles were swept out of the postseason in short order. General manager Mike Elias seems confident he’ll have more payroll flexibility this winter, but he’ll also be tasked with replacing (or re-signing) two of the 2024 team’s most valuable contributors.

Guaranteed Contracts

Additional Financial Commitments

  • Craig Kimbrel, RHP: $1MM buyout owed on $13MM club option for 2025

Total 2025 commitments: $22MM
Total future commitments: $22MM

Option Decisions

  • Eloy Jiménez, DH: $16.5MM club option for 2025 with $3MM buyout (White Sox will pay $1.5MM toward buyout)
  • Seranthony Domínguez, RHP: $8MM club option for 2025 with $500K buyout
  • Ryan O’Hearn, 1B/DH/OF: $8MM club option for 2025
  • Danny Coulombe, LHP: $4MM club option for 2025
  • Cionel Pérez, LHP: $2.2MM club option for 2025 (eligible for arbitration if club option declined)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Soto, Smith, Mateo, Bowman, Rivera

Free Agents

The Orioles have money coming off the books this winter, most notably the salaries of Corbin Burnes ($15.64MM), Craig Kimbrel ($12MM), and Anthony Santander ($11.7MM). However, Zach Eflin is due for a raise, and his salary will be on the payroll from day one. Seranthony Domínguez, Ryan O'Hearn, Danny Coulombe, and Cionel Pérez could also receive raises if the O’s exercise their club options. (The same is true for Eloy Jiménez, but this team is more likely to pick up and move to Baltimore, Ireland than it is to pick up that option.)  In addition, the Orioles have more arbitration-eligible players than any other team. 

If the Orioles pick up all of their club options (aside from Jiménez’s) and tender contracts to all of their arbitration-eligible players, that would put their player payroll for 2025 at around $105.8MM, a number that includes guaranteed contracts, buyouts, estimated salaries for arb-eligible players, and RosterResource’s $9.12MM estimate for pre-arb salaries. To put that in context, RosterResource estimates their final payroll in 2024 was $103MM. All that to say, ownership and the front office have little choice but to increase the payroll if they're planning to improve the roster over the winter.

It's a good thing, then, that Elias suggested he'll have more spending power this offseason than he has in the past. He has not confirmed that the Orioles' payroll will rise in 2025, but he told reporters (including Jake Rill of MLB.com), “I would be pretty confident that we’re going to keep investing in the Major League payroll.”

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