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Orioles, Danny Coulombe Avoid Arbitration

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6:25pm: Coulombe receives a $2.3MM salary, The Associated Press reports. That’s the midpoint of the respective filing figures. The 2025 option is valued at $4MM and comes without a buyout. Coulombe could push the option value as high as $4.925MM via escalators. The price would increase by $100K if he reaches 50 appearances this year, $50K apiece for his next five games, $55K each for his 56th-60th appearances, and $60K per game between 61 and 65 outings.

9:31am: The Orioles and left-hander Danny Coulombe have reached an agreement on a one-year deal with a club option for the 2025 season, the team announced. In doing so, the two sides avoided an arbitration hearing. Coulombe, a client of Elite Sports Group, had filed for a $2.4MM salary while the team countered at $2.2MM. He’d have been a free agent at season’s end, so the O’s are gaining an extra year of control over the southpaw with today’s agreement.

Coulombe, 34, proved to be an excellent low-cost pickup for Baltimore last winter. Acquired from the Twins in exchange for cash just days before the season began, he delivered 51 1/3 innings of 2.81 ERA ball in his first season with the O’s, striking out a strong 27.6% of his opponents against an outstanding 5.7% walk rate.

That marked the continuation of a late-career breakout that’s now seen the journeyman southpaw work to a collective 2.86 ERA over the past four seasons. It also represents a bounceback from an injury-marred 2022 campaign in which he posted a 1.46 ERA in a small sample of 12 innings with Minnesota but also walked an uncharacteristic 17% of his opponents. Coulombe missed the bulk of that season with a hip impingement but showed little to no ill effects in 2023.

Coulombe figures to slot back in as a setup man for manager Brandon Hyde, though he’ll be bridging the gap to a new closer in 2024. After star right-hander Felix Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery in October, the Orioles responded by signing free agent Craig Kimbrel to a one-year, $13MM deal. Kimbrel figures to close games for the O’s this season, with Coulombe, Yennier Cano and a healthier Dillon Tate among the current favorites for leverage spots in the seventh and eighth innings.

The option year being tacked on is significant for the Orioles. It’s relatively commonplace for teams to work out one-year deals with options of some kind even after figures are exchanged, but not necessarily with players who have five-plus years of service. Five-plus players tend to either prefer straight one-year deals or perhaps agree to a mutual option, which is largely a formality as mutual options are almost never exercised by both parties. It’s a compromise that effectively ensures the player he can reach the open market as was previously scheduled while also allowing the team to bend on a straight one-year deal that can then be used a data point in future arbitration cases. (The inclusion of an option of any kind disqualifies those agreements from being used in future negotiation of straight one-year arbitration deals.)

Coulombe, however, is older than the standard five-plus player and was perhaps more willing to surrender a free agent year as a result. He’ll lock in a salary that nearly doubles his modest career earnings of $2.89MM, and while next year’s option will surely be reasonably priced, it’ll give him the opportunity to remain in a setting where he clearly felt comfortable and where he’ll clearly have a good chance at being part of a competitive roster.

The Orioles exchanged arbitration figures with an MLB-high five players this year, but both Coulombe and fellow lefty reliever Cionel Perez have since agreed to one-year deals with options. Outfielder Austin Hays ($6.35MM vs. $5.85MM), first baseman/designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn ($3.8MM vs. $3.2MM) and righty Jacob Webb ($1MM vs. $925K) are all still unresolved, but presumably the team will continue looking into similar arrangements  with that group in order to avoid a potentially contentious hearing.

Mariners Interested In Dylan Cease

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The Mariners have begun discussing a trade for right-hander Dylan Cease with the White Sox, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Nightengale suggests that the White Sox are seeking a package centered around one of Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo, Seattle’s pair of cost-controlled righty starters. There’s no indications that a deal is particularly close or even likely, with Nightengale noting that the White Sox appear likely to retain Cease through the start of the 2024 season if a deal with Seattle doesn’t come together. That sentiment echoes other recent reports regarding Cease’s trade candidacy that have cast doubt on the likelihood he changes uniforms before Opening Day.

The report marks the first time the Mariners have been connected to Cease this winter. The right-hander has been a frequent subject of trade rumors this offseason with the Yankees, Reds, Orioles, and Red Sox among the clubs rumored to have had interest at one point or another. Despite that widespread interest, teams have largely appeared to balk at the high asking price the White Sox have set for Cease’s services. A report last month indicated that the club requested a package of four of the Cincinnati’s top prospects in negotiations with the Reds earlier this winter, and Nightengale added that talks between the White Sox and Orioles regarding Cease have “stopped” at this point in the offseason.

In negotiations with the Mariners, it appears the White Sox have pivoted from their previous ask of a hefty prospect package to instead focus on big-league ready talent. It’s an understandable move for the club to make. Woo and Miller are entering their age-24 and -25 seasons, respectively, coming off solid rookie campaigns with six seasons of team control remaining. Either righty would not only be able to immediately replace Cease in the club’s rotation mix, but would give the club another long-term asset to build around alongside star center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Robert is under team control for the next four seasons.

As for Seattle, adding Cease to their starting staff would give the club perhaps the strongest rotation in the majors. Cease is coming off a relative down season on the mound where he posted a 4.58 ERA in 177 innings of work but is just one season removed from a 2022 campaign where he placed second in AL Cy Young award voting. Over the past three seasons, Cease sports a solid 3.54 ERA (121 ERA+) and 3.40 FIP with a 29.8% strikeout rate, numbers that paint him as a solid #2 starter. The 28-year-old would likely slot into the middle of the club’s rotation alongside Logan Gilbert behind ace Luis Castillo and young star George Kirby, with whichever of Woo or Miller remained with the Mariners rounding out the club’s starting rotation.

Replacing Miller or Woo with Cease in the rotation would provide the club with additional certainty in a rotation that figures to lean heavily on young players. The most experienced pitcher aside from Castillo who currently projects for the club’s starting rotation is Gilbert, who is entering just the fourth season of his career in 2024. Kirby has just two MLB seasons under his belt, while both Miller and Woo are entering their sophomore campaigns with just 25 and 18 big league starts respectively under their belts.

Cease, by contrast, has been among the most durable starters in the league in recent years with 97 starts over the past three seasons. For a team that has long valued starting pitching depth but parted with both Marco Gonzales while swapping Robbie Ray for Anthony DeSclafani earlier this offseason, bringing a durable veteran arm in place of a young player who has yet to make 30 starts in a big league season could provide the club with an opportunity to make up for the innings lost by parting with Gonzales and Ray.

On the other hand, it would nonetheless be something of a surprise to see Seattle part with one of their young, cost-controlled arms in a deal that wouldn’t address an area of greater need such as the club’s infield, where Josh Rojas and Luis Urias project to be the everyday starters at second and third base. In addition to shopping for another infielder to add to the club’s mix, the Mariners have expressed interest in fortifying their relief corps, which currently features Andres Munoz and Matt Brash as its back-end options after the club dealt closer Paul Sewald to the Diamondbacks last summer. Recent comments from president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto also seemed to cast doubt on the possibility of a deal involving Miller or Woo, as he suggested that retaining the duo was “Plan A” for their offseason.

Orioles Sign Ronald Guzmán To Minor League Deal

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The Orioles announced that they have signed Ronald Guzmán to a minor league deal. The lefty is represented by JP Sports Advisors.

Guzmán, 29, has 246 games of major league experience. He spent 2018 to 2021 with the Rangers and also had a brief showing with the Yankees in 2022, working primarily as a first baseman for those years. He hit .225/.302/.410 in his 823 plate appearances, launching 31 home runs but also striking out at a 29.2% clip.

Just over a year ago, he signed a minor league deal with the Giants for the 2023 season. It was reported in early February that he would be attempting to become a two-way player. He was apparently hitting 96 miles per hour on the radar gun around that time, as well as throwing a slider and changeup.

Unfortunately, the experiment hit a snag pretty quickly, as he left a Spring Training game with an injury. He was later diagnosed with pronator strain in his left forearm, telling Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle at that time that he expected to be out of action for about six to eight weeks. He didn’t return to official game action until August, making three rehab appearances before being released.

It appears he is healthy now, as he has recently been playing for Gigantes del Cibao in the Dominican Winter League. He has played some first base, left field and made two appearances on the mound. The fact that the O’s listed him as a left-handed pitcher in their announcement suggests that they may be more interested in him for that role, though perhaps they will let Guzmán do both.

He still has effectively no experience as a pitcher to speak of, so it’s tough to know what to expect from him going forward, especially after last year being essentially wiped out by injury. But for the O’s, there’s no risk in bringing him aboard on a minor league deal to see if he can thrive in his new role with a bit of health.

Orioles Have Shown Interest In Michael Lorenzen

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The Orioles have been connected to various starting pitching targets all winter and that search is ongoing. General manager Mike Elias said so himself today, telling reporters such as Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner. Elias hasn’t ruled out a free agent addition but says the club’s farm system makes a trade more likely. In terms of free agent pursuits, Jon Morosi of MLB.com lists Michael Lorenzen as one they have shown interest in.

Pitching is a clear target area of the club’s roster. They are loaded with position players but the rotation is lacking in certainty. Kyle Gibson and Jack Flaherty each became free agents after last season and have since signed elsewhere.

Both Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez finished the year strong, but the former has less than two years of big league experience and the latter less than one. John Means will be in the mix but he hasn’t pitched much over the past two years due to Tommy John surgery. Dean Kremer should be in the back end somewhere after posting a 4.12 earned run average last year. Cole Irvin could be a factor but he struggled last year, getting moved to the bullpen and the minors throughout the year. Guys like Tyler Wells, Bruce Zimmermann or Cade Povich could factor in as well. Elias also said that DL Hall is still viewed as a starter in the long term, per Kostka, but may remain in the bullpen for the short term.

For a club that just won 101 games and is looking to compete again this year, there’s clearly room for upgrades there. They should have the ability to make any kind of move they want, due to their payroll and organizational situations. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that they haven’t given a free agent a multi-year deal since signing Alex Cobb in 2018. That means their future ledger is wide open and their 2024 payroll is only at $81MM, per Roster Resource. That’s a jump from last year’s Opening Day figure but still bottom three in the league for this year, ahead of only the Athletics and Pirates.

They also have a stacked farm system, considered by many to be the strongest in the league. With that combination of an elite farm system and a clean payroll slate, the options are theoretically endless. Throughout the winter, they have been connected to all sorts of arms. That includes one of the top free agents in Aaron Nola, though he subsequently re-signed with the Phillies. It also includes the lower tiers of free agency, with guys like James Paxton and Domingo Germán having been connected to the O’s, though Paxton is now reportedly in agreement with the Dodgers. The Orioles have also been interested in trade candidates like Dylan Cease and Corbin Burnes.

Despite all of that interest, they have yet to pull the trigger on any move to address their rotation, with pitchers and catchers set to report to Spring Training in less than three weeks. Elias continues to insist that a trade is a likely path forward, though it remains to be seen if they can get anything done. The asking price on Cease is reportedly very high, with the White Sox asking for multiple top prospects. The possibility of the Brewers trading Burnes has seemingly faded as the offseason has progressed.

On the free agent side of things, Lorenzen is apparently another name they have considered. The 32-year-old spent much of his career as a reliever with the Reds but has been pursuing a return to starting work since reaching free agency. He signed with the Angels in 2022 and was able to make 18 starts and log 97 2/3 innings. His 4.24 ERA was passable in that time. His 20.7% strikeout rate and 10.7% walk rate were a bit worse than average, but his 50.2% ground ball rate was strong.

That wasn’t astounding production but a step in the right director in terms of workload. In 2023, he seemed to take another step forward after signing with the Tigers. Through midseason, he had already made 18 starts and thrown 105 2/3 innings. He had dropped his ERA to 3.58 and lowered his walk rate to 6.5%. He was traded to the Phillies and kept the good times rolling for a while. He allowed two earned runs over eight innings in his first start as a Phillie and then threw a no-hitter in his second.

From that point, things went off the rails. Lorenzen was shelled for 27 earned runs in his final 30 1/3 innings, getting bumped to the bullpen in the process. It’s fair to wonder if he simply ran out of gas. After years of working out of the bullpen, he pushed himself to almost 100 innings in 2022. After the no-hitter, which took him 124 pitches, he was at 122 2/3 innings in 2023 with a 3.23 ERA. The rough finish added almost a full run to his ERA, pushing it to 4.18 for the year overall.

Arguably, another year of pushing himself in terms of innings could lessen the late-season drop-off. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Lorenzen for a two-year, $22MM deal. His market has been fairly quiet this winter but he reportedly held a showcase for interested clubs earlier this week.

Elsewhere in Oriole news, manager Brandon Hyde says that righty Dillon Tate is healthy and looked “unbelievable” recently, per Kostka. Tate didn’t pitch in the majors in 2023, as he was diagnosed with a forearm/flexor strain in November of 2022 and wasn’t able to get healthy last year. He went on multiple rehab assignments but was never returned to the big leagues. When he was last healthy, he threw 73 2/3 innings for the O’s in 2022 with a 3.05 ERA, 20.5% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 57.4% ground ball rate. If he is back in good form, it could be a boon for the bullpen.

Blue Jays, Orioles Have Shown Interest In Domingo German

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The Orioles and Blue Jays are among six teams that have shown interest in free agent starter Domingo Germán, reports Mark W. Sanchez of the New York Post. Sanchez adds that the Mets have also checked in but casts doubt on the chance of the right-hander heading to Queens.

Germán has spent his entire MLB career with the Yankees, who acquired him as a prospect in a 2014 trade with the Marlins. At times, he looked like a key mid-rotation arm in the Bronx, yet his tenure was marred by off-field issues. After working as a depth arm between 2017-18, he tallied a career-high 143 innings over 27 appearances (24 starts) in 2019. Germán was having a productive season, working to a 4.03 ERA with a near-26% strikeout rate.

That September, MLB placed Germán on administrative leave after he reportedly assaulted his girlfriend at a charity event. MLB finished its investigation that offseason and suspended him for the first 81 games of the 2020 season. That year wound up being shortened by the pandemic, so MLB reinstated him after he missed the entire 60-game schedule.

Germán returned to the Yankees in 2021. He missed parts of the next two seasons battling shoulder issues, combining for a 4.17 ERA over 170 2/3 innings. He held a spot in the New York rotation for the early portion of last year. Germán’s start to the year was middling and he was suspended for 10 games in mid-May after failing a foreign substance inspection.

He carried a 5.10 ERA through his first 14 appearances into a late-June start in Oakland. Germán turned in a legendary performance at the Coliseum that night, throwing MLB’s 24th perfect game, the first since Félix Hernández’s outing in 2012. Germán followed that up with a 4.61 ERA over five starts in July.

On August 2, the Yankees announced they were placing Germán on the restricted list so he could report to an inpatient treatment facility for alcohol abuse. Lindsey Adler of the Wall Street Journal subsequently reported that an apparently intoxicated Germán had argued with teammates and coaches in the New York clubhouse and flipped a couch amidst those confrontations.

That ended Germán’s tenure with the Yankees. He spent the rest of the season on the restricted list. At year’s end, New York placed him on outright waivers. Once he went unclaimed, he elected free agency.

Sanchez writes that Germán has completed the requirements of his inpatient treatment and is seeking a return to the majors in 2024. According to Sanchez, his camp has received two formal contract offers (although it isn’t clear if those proposals have come from Baltimore and Toronto specifically). If he lands a major league deal, it’d surely be a cheap one-year pact.

Of the two AL East teams known to have shown interest, Baltimore has the greater need for rotation help. Aside from depth righty Jonathan Heasley, the O’s have yet to add a starting pitcher this offseason. They’re slated to begin the year with Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, John Means and likely Dean Kremer in the top four spots. Cole Irvin and Tyler Wells (each of whom worked out of the bullpen at points last year) would be the best options for the #5 job at present. The starting staff is the weakest point on an otherwise loaded roster coming off a 101-win season.

It’s unlikely Baltimore will come away from the offseason completely empty-handed. Yet they’ve thus far resisted dealing from the top of their vaunted farm system to add starting pitching via trade. While they seemed a candidate to at least play in the middle tiers of the free agent rotation market, the organization again hasn’t shown that kind of appetite for spending.

The O’s signed Craig Kimbrel to a $13MM guarantee to take the ninth inning after losing Félix Bautista to Tommy John surgery. They’ve otherwise sat out MLB free agency this winter. Roster Resource projects their 2024 spending around $81MM. That’s well above last year’s approximate $61MM Opening Day figure but puts them in the league’s bottom five in terms of estimated payroll.

Toronto took some early swings at the top of the free agent market. They’ve pivoted to the middle tiers in recent weeks, including a rotation acquisition. The Jays agreed to terms with Cuban right-hander Yariel Rodríguez on a four-year, $32MM deal last week. He’ll likely compete for the final spot with Alek Manoah, who is trying to bounce back from a dismal 2023 season. With Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi occupying the top four positions, it’s unlikely they’d give Germán a look in the season-opening rotation. If Rodríguez doesn’t take them out of the market for Germán entirely, they’d probably view him as a long relief option.

Orioles Sign Daniel Johnson To Minor League Contract

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The Orioles have signed Daniel Johnson to a minor league deal, the team announced. The outfielder is represented by CAA Sports.

Johnson was once a fairly notable prospect in the Washington and Cleveland farm systems. The Nats dealt him to the Indians in 2018 for catcher Yan Gomes. Johnson made it to the big leagues during the shortened season and appeared in 30 games during the ’21 campaign. The New Mexico State product struggled to a .202/.245/.337 slash while striking out 32 times over 94 plate appearances.

Cleveland sent him off the 40-man roster at the end of the 2021 season. He split the 2022 campaign between the Nationals and Mets systems without reaching the majors. Johnson signed a minor league pact with the Padres last winter. He had a solid year between the top two minor league levels. The 28-year-old ran a .271/.348/.469 slash over 537 cumulative plate appearances.

Johnson has tallied a little more than 1000 plate appearances over parts of four Triple-A seasons. He’s a .254/.326/.446 hitter at that level. Johnson can play all three outfield spots but has more experience in a corner, with his top-of-the-scale arm strength playing best in right field.

Orioles, Cionel Perez Avoid Arbitration

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January 23: Perez will make $1.2MM in 2024, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The 2025 option comes with a base salary of $2.2MM can be increased by various escalators. It goes up by $25K for 55, 60, 65 and 70 innings pitched, $50K for 20 and 25 games finished, $100K for 30 and 35 games finished, $150K for 40 and 45 games finished, as well as $200K for 50 games finished.

January 22: The Orioles announced Monday that they’ve avoided arbitration with left-handed reliever Cionel Perez. The Octagon client agreed to a one-year deal with a club option for the 2025 season. Since Perez is under team control for three more years, he’d remain an Oriole (and be arbitration-eligible once again) even if the team declines the 2025 option. Perez had filed at a $1.4MM salary, with the team countering at $1.1MM. Today’s agreement will be somewhere between those two sums and will avoid a potentially contentious hearing.

Like most clubs throughout the sport, Baltimore has taken a “file-and-trial” approach to arbitration in recent years. That is to say, once the team and player have exchanged numbers and filed those respective figures with the league, talks on a straight one-year deal are cut off. However, multi-year deals and one-year pacts that contain options are still on the table for discussion.

To many, it seems an odd line to draw on the surface. But one-year deals containing club or mutual options are not considered “one-year” contracts in arbitration — at least not in the sense that they’re considered relevant data points in future arbitration cases. Because of that, even file-and-trial clubs will generally discuss them, considering those deals more akin to multi-year pacts that don’t have long-term ramifications in a process where salaries are determined based overwhelmingly on prior, comparable one-year agreements.

Perez, 27, has had a breakout showing in Baltimore over the past two seasons after being plucked off waivers from the Reds in November 2021. The southpaw has made 131 appearances for the O’s and turned in a terrific 2.43 earned run average in 111 innings, picking up four saves and 35 holds along the way. Perez took a step back in ’23, as his ERA spiked from 1.40 to 3.54 while his strikeout and walk rates both trended in the wrong direction (23.5% and 9%, respectively, in 2022; 17.8% and 10.9% in 2023). Even with those red flags, Perez’s fastball velocity held at nearly 97 mph on average, he remained one of the toughest pitchers to take out of the ballpark (0.32 HR/9), and his 60.9% ground-ball rate was elite.

Perez will likely join fellow lefties Danny Coulombe and DL Hall in what should once again be a very strong Baltimore bullpen. There’s no compensating for the loss of All-Star closer Felix Bautista, who had Tommy John surgery in October, but the team’s hope is that by signing Craig Kimbrel to join Perez, Coulombe, Hall, All-Star setup man Yennier Cano and potentially right-hander Tyler Wells (if he’s not back in the rotation), the bullpen will again be quite formidable.

With Perez’s case now settled, the Orioles still have four players whose arbitration status remains up in the air. The O’s also exchanged figures with outfielder Austin Hays ($6.35MM vs. $5.85MM), first baseman/designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn ($3.8MM vs. $3.2MM), Coulombe ($2.4MM vs. $2.2MM) and righty Jacob Webb ($1MM vs. $925K).

Orioles Acquire Tyler Nevin

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The Orioles announced they’ve reacquired infielder Tyler Nevin in a trade with the Tigers. Baltimore sends cash to Detroit, who had designated the right-handed hitter for assignment last week. The O’s now have 39 players on the 40-man roster.

Nevin heads back to Baltimore after a year away. During the 2022-23 offseason, the Orioles had designated Nevin for assignment and traded him to the Tigers for cash. The 26-year-old spent the year on the Detroit 40-man roster but worked mostly in Triple-A. He posted excellent numbers in the minors, where he raked at a .326/.400/.543 clip with 15 homers through 385 plate appearances.

That brings Nevin to a .276/.355/.464 slash in more than 1000 plate appearances at the top minor league level. He hasn’t found the same success in scattered looks against MLB pitching. He’s a .203/.310/.301 hitter in 105 big league contests over the past three seasons. Nevin played in 64 games with the Orioles from 2021-22 and got into 41 games as a Tiger.

The O’s are clearly familiar with the former Rockies draftee. With a pair of openings on the 40-man, they’ll bring him back for a minimal cost. Nevin is out of minor league options, so he’d have to break camp with the MLB team if the O’s don’t want to again DFA him. That could be a tough task on a team with plenty of infield depth, but there’s little harm for Baltimore in giving him a look in Spring Training.

Orioles Getting Trade Interest In Samuel Basallo

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  • Since Adley Rutschman has quickly become a cornerstone player in Baltimore, catching prospect Samuel Basallo is often mentioned as a possible trade chip for the Orioles.  MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes that rival clubs are indeed “checking on the availability” of Basallo in trade talks, yet it doesn’t seem likely that the O’s would move him for anything less than a spectacular offer.  Basallo doesn’t turn 20 until August, and since he has only four games of Double-A experience, the Orioles can take their time with his development as both a catcher and as a hitter.  Basallo has a strong throwing arm but evaluators are somewhat mixed on his future behind the plate, so if he ends up becoming more of a catcher/first base hybrid, Kubatko notes that there might be room for both Basallo and Rutschman to co-exist on Baltimore’s roster.  One of many gems from the Orioles’ deep farm system, Basallo is ranked by MLB Pipeline as the 46th-best prospect in all of baseball, while Baseball America puts Basallo behind only Jackson Holliday as Baltimore’s top minor leaguer.

Latest On Dylan Cease’s Trade Candidacy

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Few players have found their names in more trade rumors this winter than Dylan Cease. It has been widely expected the White Sox would move him. He’s down to his final two years of arbitration control and first-year GM Chris Getz has expressed a willingness to reshape the roster.

At the same time, Getz and his front office have set a high goal in trade discussions. Reports have suggested they’re seeking a return built around multiple top prospects. Teams like the Reds, Yankees, Dodgers and Braves were involved in Cease discussions but have pivoted to other free agent/trade targets after balking at Chicago’s ask.

Cease remains with the Sox less than a month from the opening of Spring Training. That has led to increasing speculation that Chicago could hold him into the season. One rival executive cast doubt on a Cease trade to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com yesterday, suggesting the White Sox aren’t showing any interest in backing off their asking price.

That’s a sentiment echoed by a few other reports. ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted this morning that a pair of executives outside the organization believe Chicago will hold Cease until the deadline. Robert Murray of FanSided writes that the Sox don’t appear close to any deal, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests there’s a “growing belief” within the industry that Cease stays in Chicago until the summer.

None of that is a guarantee Cease won’t move in the coming weeks. There’s nothing to suggest the White Sox plan to cut off trade dialogue even as they hold firm to a lofty ask. Chicago believed they’d have increased leverage in talks once Yoshinobu Yamamoto came off the board. Yamamoto’s signing didn’t spur a deal, but it’s possible they’re taking a similar stance with regards to Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery.

The Orioles, Red Sox and Mets have, to varying degrees, been linked to Cease this offseason. The Angels, Padres and Pirates haven’t been directly tied to the righty but are generally known to be looking for starting pitching. Baltimore has perhaps been the subject of the most speculation, a reflection of their loaded minor league pipeline and the benefit of adding a high-octane arm to last year’s 101-win club. Heyman reports that the O’s are reluctant to part with 24-year-old infielder Jordan Westburg, in whom the Sox are apparently showing interest. The former first-round pick hit .260/.311/.404 through his first 68 MLB games and has six years of club control.

Cease agreed to an $8MM salary for his second-to-last season of arbitration. He’s looking to rebound from a somewhat disappointing 2023 campaign in which he posted a 4.58 ERA over 177 innings. Cease still throws exceptionally hard and punched out 27.3% of opposing hitters a year ago. If the Sox do hold him into next season, he has the upside to be the most in-demand starter at the deadline.

José Berríos, Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle have all returned multiple highly-regarded prospects in summer deals with a year and a half of control. Yet the Sox would also assume the risk of Cease suffering an injury or regression if they hold him for another few months.

It’s the biggest decision for Getz in his first offseason leading baseball operations. He pulled the trigger on a deal sending reliever Aaron Bummer to the Braves for a five-player return at the start of the offseason. Getz and his staff have otherwise slow-played things thus far, supplementing the roster on the margins with fairly low-cost free agent pickups (i.e. Erick Fedde, Martín Maldonado, Chris Flexen, Tim Hill, Paul DeJong).

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