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Rays Promote Shane Baz

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Sept. 20: The Rays have formally selected Baz’s contract and created space on the 40-man roster by transferring Archer from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL. That will formally end the season for Archer, who is battling renewed discomfort in his problematic hip. Tampa Bay opened a spot on the 28-man roster for Baz by placing righty Andrew Kittredge on the 10-day IL due to tightness in his neck.

Sept. 18: Top Rays prospect Shane Baz will make his Major League debut on Monday against the Blue Jays, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). Baz was the third piece acquired along with Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow from the Pirates in the now infamous Chris Archer trade. The 22-year-old’s stock has risen since the trade, though the former first rounder has always shown tremendous promise.

In the Tampa development engine, he has become a refined starting prospect at the top of an impressive farm system. He was the Rays’ top prospect on Baseball America’s midseason report, and he’s the top prospect by MLB.com’s rendering as well. Baz won a silver medal alongside current Ray David Robertson while with Team USA at the Olympics in Japan.

He is not currently on the 40-man roster, so a corresponding roster move will be necessary. While Baz isn’t technically postseason-eligible right now, he could theoretically be added to the postseason roster through a petition to the Commissioner’s office as an injury replacement. That process has often been exploited in the past, and the Rays have shown a willingness to throw young hurlers into the postseason fire (see McClanahan, Shane).

Besides, while the Rays own the best record in the American League, they have the most dynamic (read: unpredictable) pitching staff. Practically speaking, it’s entirely unclear who might get the ball in a potential opening round playoff series, so there is at least a possibility that Baz could pitch his way onto the playoff roster. Because playoff roster changes cannot be made mid-series, the only opening he’d likely snag would be as a starter. Best case, he could make maybe three starts before the year is out — if the Rays view this promotion as an actual audition for playoff baseball.

The prospect of Baz as a playoff weapon isn’t all that far-fetched when you consider his dominance in the upper levels of the minors this season. He made seven starts in Double-A with a 2.84 ERA, striking out 49 in 32 2/3 innings. After earning a rapid promotion to Triple-A, Baz went back to work with a 1.76 ERA over 10 starts totaling 46 innings with a 64-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Those eye-popping numbers certainly must make the Rays consider giving him an opportunity to help the parent club right now.

The rookie southpaw McClanahan is the only sure thing to be in the playoff rotation right now, and he’s currently on the injured list. Drew Rasmussen is making a strong push to be a postseason starter as well, having not allowed more than one earned run in any of his past six starts since joining the rotation. Ryan Yarbrough, Michael Wacha, and Luis Patino round out the rotation for now, though the Rays are likely to use at least one rotation spot (and maybe more) for bullpen days come the postseason.

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Be The AL’s Wild Card Teams?

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This season marks the beginning of what should be a competitive era of Blue Jays baseball, but like all good stories, this one began in the middle. Toronto continued their second half surge today with their 83rd win. Over the past year, the Jays have supplemented young cornerstones Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette with an impressive collection of veterans including George Springer, Marcus Semien, Jose Berrios, and two years ago, Hyun Jin Ryu.

Buying low and hitting on reclamation projects like Robbie Ray, Steven Matz – and even Semien – further fueled their organizational turnaround. Give the development team credit for turning less-heralded pieces like Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Jordan Romano into significant supplemental assets. Young pitching has started to arrive as well, with Alek Manoah impressing in his first 17 starts and Nate Pearson hitting triple-digits in limited usage out of the bullpen.

Charlie Montoyo’s club has pushed all year, but only recently have they angled their way into the AL’s playoff quintet. In fact, today’s win puts them back into playoff position with 14 games to go. Per Fangraphs’ playoff odds, the Jays are well-positioned with a 62.6 percent chance of nabbing one of the two wild card spots.

The Yankees don’t have the momentum of their northern neighbors, but this team is better than the negative press would have you believe. It’s a tough road to hoe, however, with just 13 games remaining and their final nine against the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Rays. Put positively: the Yankees control their own fate. A loss today dropped them a half game behind the Jays, but patience is key.

Good thing, because they Yankees aren’t just the tallest team in the AL, they’ve also been the most patient with a 10.4 percent walk rate. Pairing a walk-heavy approach with the power bats of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, Luke Voit, Joey Gallo and Gary Sanchez ought to be a recipe for success. They’ve been six percent better than average as a group since the trade deadline, but their offense ranks just around the middle of the pack on the year: they rank 9th in the AL in runs, 8th by ISO, 6th by wOBA and 7th by wRC+.

The pitching staff has carried the day, however, ranking 2nd in the AL by fWAR, strikeout rate, ERA, and SIERA, and 3rd by FIP. Gerrit Cole has lived up to his billing as one of the game’s few true frontline starters. But he’s not alone, as Corey Kluber, Jameson Taillon, Nestor Cortes Jr., Jordan Montgomery, Luis Gil, and Domingo German have all provided valuable innings.

Regardless, they will enter play tomorrow 1.5 games behind the Red Sox for the top wild card spot. Boston nabbed their 85th win of the season today, pushing their playoff odds to a robust 85.8 percent. They trail the Rays by 7.5 games, so Tampa’s hold on the division is ironclad, but Boston seems a safe bet to find themselves in the wild card game.

That said, a 1.5 game lead with 12 to go isn’t quite ready to take to the bank. Alex Cora’s team does have the benefit of a soft schedule the rest of the way. Not only do they have the least amount of games remaining among the contenders, but they will happily circle the Beltway for four against the Orioles and three against the Nationals. They have two with the Mets and three with the Yankees, but the BoSox could even mitigate a tough series against the Yanks by taking care of business against inferior teams in those other nine games.

The Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Yankees pose the most compelling cases among the wild card hopefuls because of their divisional rivalries and star power – but they aren’t alone. There are a pair of contenders out west who are still hanging around this race.

The Athletics were largely expected to take a step back this season after losing Semien, Liam Hendriks, Tommy La Stella, Robbie Grossman, and Joakim Soria to free agency. But Bob Melvin has turned in another solid season from the bench, steering this club to 80 wins (and counting) and a .544 win percentage. As of this writing, Oakland sits 2.5 games out of a playoff spot with a lead early in their game against the Angels. Chris Bassitt’s return may provide an emotional boost, but with their final four series switchbacking against the Astros and Mariners, they have an uphill climb ahead.

Speaking of the Astros, they have a seven game lead over Oakland for the AL West and a magic number of nine. With six head-to-head match-ups remaining, the A’s could theoretically overtake Houston to win the division, but that’s not all that likely. Houston has a 99.4 percent chance to win the division right now, so that’s probably where they’ll be after game 162.

The Mariners round out our group of potential playoff teams from the American League. They have six more games against a beatable Angels team, but Scott Servais’ crew remains a long shot contender. They are 3.5 games behind Toronto with three teams to leapfrog and a 1.3 percent chance to play beyond the regular season, per Fangraphs.

The Mariners’ aren’t toast yet, but with seven head-to-head match-ups with the A’s still to come, the two western contenders are likeliest to eliminate one another from wild card contention. These final games count the same as any other, however, and something like a 12-2 finish from either the Mariners or A’s wouldn’t be unheard of. All we can say for sure is that it won’t happen for both teams.

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk ran through the NL Wild Card contenders just a few days ago, and more than 50 percent of readers went chalk in voting the Cardinals to keep their hold on the NL’s last playoff spot. Now’s your chance to make the call for the AL contenders. Will the Red Sox and Blue Jays hold on? Can the Yankees, A’s, or Mariners yoink a ticket to postseason play? What say you?

(Link to poll for app users)

(Link to poll for app users)

AL Roster Notes: Yankees, Rays, Angels, Rangers

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The Yankees optioned Luis Gil to Triple-A after today’s ballgame, per the team. A corresponding move is likely to follow tomorrow. Gil started today’s game, an 11-3 loss to Cleveland. Though today’s outing ended poorly, Gil had given the Yanks five very strong starts. He logged a 2.88 ERA/3.96 FIP in 25 innings heading into today’s ballgame.

Let’s check in on some other roster moves made today around the Junior Circuit…

  • The Rays optioned righty Joey Krehbiel to Triple-A today after making his Rays’ debut, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). The move is likely a precursor to the call-up of top prospect Shane Baz, whose debut is scheduled for Monday. Krehbiel, 28, tossed a scoreless inning today, striking out two while walking one.
  • The Angels demoted yesterday’s starter Jhonathan Diaz to Triple-A, recalling Cooper Criswell in his place, the team announced. Diaz made his Major League debut last night, giving up two earned runs on two hits and four walks while striking out two over 1 2/3 innings. Criswell made his own debut under similar circumstances earlier this year, giving up three earned runs in 1 1/3 innings in his lone start on the year.
  • The Rangers have sent Matt Bush out on a rehab assignment to Triple-A, per the team. Bush has been on the shelf since April 8 with a right elbow flexor strain. He made just three appearances in what had been his first big league action since 2018. The 35-year-old former first overall draft pick has 139 career appearances – all with the Rangers – and a 3.47 ERA/3.88 FIP over 140 career innings.

Dodgers Notes: Alexander, Bellinger, Kahnle

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Scott Alexander won’t be returning this season, per Jorge Castillo of the LA Times (via Twitter). Alexander has been out since July 20 because of shoulder inflammation. The southpaw has been a reliable presence out of the Dodgers pen for the past four seasons, tossing 111 innings with a 3.49 ERA/4.24 FIP over that span.

Tommy Kahnle is also done for the year, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. Kahnle has been recovering from Tommy John surgery, and there was some thought that he might be well enough to return this season, but that’s no longer the case. Of course, the Dodgers signed him to a two-year deal with this possibility fully in mind. The plan remains to get him healthy and ready for the start of 2022.

Cody Bellinger’s season soldiers on, though it’s hardly gone as planned. Beyond the almost comically disastrous .159/.237/.291 triple slash line, Bellinger has struggled to stay healthy going all the way back to last year’s World Series. He’s now dealing with a non-displaced rib fracture, suffered in an outfield collision with converted infielder Gavin Lux, per The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya. He missed 53 days earlier this season with a fractured fibula and a little more than a week with a hamstring strain.

Bellinger appears likely to play through this injury and avoid another stint on the injured list, though given that he’s hitting just .073/.174/.122 in September, a bit of rest might be preferable for the Dodgers. Chris Taylor is certainly capable of handling centerfield in the short term, though Taylor himself has been banged up of late.

Besides, the fact that Lux was playing left field at all speaks to where the Dodgers are at right now in terms in their available outfielders. And for all his struggles at the plate, Bellinger is a viable defensive centerfielder, putting up 3.0 OAA, -2 DRS, and 1.2 UZR.

A’s Place Daulton Jefferies On 10-Day Injured List, Return James Kaprielian To Rotation

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The A’s placed righty Daulton Jefferies on the 10-day injured list with right elbow ulnar neuritis and recalled southpaw Sam Moll to claim his roster spot, per the team. Jefferies was supposed to start today, but the injury unfortunately delays his joining the rotation.

James Kaprielian, who was demoted to the bullpen in favor of Jefferies, will now step back into the rotation for his regular turn on the bump. Kaprielian will presumably need to turn around his performance quickly in order to make the most out of this second chance. The Athletics hopes that Chris Bassitt will be back in the rotation shortly, which could again send Kaprielian to the pen.

Kaprielian’s overall numbers this season are decent: he’s posted 1.3 rWAR/1.0 fWAR over 20 starts totaling 105 1/3 innings. Those numbers with his 4.02 ERA/4.46 FIP make for a serviceable rotation arm, if not one guaranteed innings on a first division squad. Over his past eight stars, however, he’s been tagged for a 6.51 ERA/5.01 FIP, prompting the move to the bullpen.

As for Moll, he returns for his third stint in the Majors this season. The 29-year-old Tennessee native has made just four appearances over his first couple of turns upstairs, though he’s done well in the short sample, keeping opponents scoreless over 4 2/3 innings.

Giants Activate Alex Wood, Designate Chadwick Tromp For Assignment

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The Giants have activated starter Alex Wood from the injured list, per MLB.com’s Maria I. Guardado. Sammy Long was optioned to Triple-A and Chadwick Tromp has been designated for assignment.

Wood should slide right back into the rotation for the final few weeks of the season while auditioning for a spot in the playoff rotation. The 30-year-old southpaw has put together a resurgent year for the NL West leaders, making 23 starts and logging 125 2/3 innings with a 4.08 ERA/3.71 FIP. Despite a couple of trips to the injured list, this is the healthiest Wood has been over a full season since 2018.

Tromp has been a regular member of the Giants’ catching rotation, though clearly behind Buster Posey, Curt Casali, and Joey Bart in the hierarchy. Still, the 26-year-old has made 82 plate appearances for the Giants over the past two seasons.

Long has both started and relieved this season, taking five turns in the rotation and appearing seven times in relief. He has a 5.53 ERA/4.22 FIP across 40 2/3 innings with relatively average peripherals across the board: 21.6 percent strikeout rate, 8.5 percent walk rate, and 39.2 percent groundball rate.

MLB Suspends Mike Wright, Tony La Russa

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Major League Baseball has levied a three-game suspension against the White Sox’ Mike Wright for intentionally throwing at Shohei Ohtani, per Jack Harris of the LA Times (via Twitter). Manager Tony La Russa was also given a one game suspension, which he is serving tonight. Impressively, La Russa’s ejection was the 91st of his career.

The suspension stems from a three-pitch incident in which Wright missed badly on consecutive balls, eventually plunking Ohtani in the leg with the third offering. Wright has appealed his suspension, so he will continue to be available for the time being.

The 31-year-old Wright has made nine appearances for the White Sox this year, his first in Chicago. Though he did not appear in the Majors in 2020, he made appearances in every season from 2015 through 2019, mostly with the Orioles. He made nine appearances with the Mariners in 2019 after being acquired via trade. In total, Wright has a 5.87 ERA/5.20 FIP across 271 1/3 big league innings.

Quick Hits: Reds, Nationals, A’s

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The Reds and pitching guru Kyle Boddy are ending their relationship after two seasons, per a press release from Boddy himself. Boddy and Driveline Baseball, his player development organization, surged into the public sphere not long ago as major disruptors in pitching innovation and date-driven development. The Reds’ hiring of Boddy as their minor league pitching coordinator suggested buy-in on Cincinnati’s side, as did their promotion of Boddy to Director of Pitching. That makes this split somewhat surprising, but the relationship clearly did not progress as planned.

What this means for the future of Reds’ development is unclear. Changing philosophies organization-wide can be a slow and clunky process, but it’s certainly possible that the Reds don’t plan to make wholesale changes. Still, moving on from such a public and outside-the-box hire suggests that the Reds will be moving in a different direction in terms of their minor league development strategy. Elsewhere around the game…

  • The Nationals are planning on avoiding a full-scale rebuild, according to comments made by GM Mike Rizzo, provided by Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter). Perhaps most interestingly, Rizzo says that the players on the squad now will make the foundation of their next championship club. Juan Soto fits the bill, for obvious reasons, but it’s unclear who else might be a part of that supposed core. Keibert Ruiz, Luis Garcia, and Carter Kieboom are the most obvious candidates given their age and prospect status, but none of the three is yet clearly established as an above-average regular. Time will tell if Rizzo is right about this current crop of Nats.
  • The Athletics continue to take steps towards relocating from Oakland to Las Vegas. Per Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle, the A’s will winnow a list of potential sites down to a few finalists sometime in November. Although Vegas’ involvement might have seemed like a bargaining ploy to start, there’s clearly a real possibility of a move. This saga is far from done, however, as the city of Oakland remains in negotiations with the A’s about the prospect of building a new stadium.

Giants Place Jake McGee On 10-Day Injured List

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The Giants have placed reliever Jake McGee on the 10-day injured list with a right oblique strain, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Because the injury placement is backdated to Tuesday when McGee first felt the muscle acting up, he will be available to return to the active roster by September 24 at the earliest.

Not long ago, it would have been scoff-worthy to suggest that McGee would find a role as the nominal closer for the team with the best record in the Majors – but here we are. McGee was one of the Rockies’ ill-fated bullpen signings back in 2017, and by the time that $27MM contract had run its course, McGee had fallen so far out of favor that Colorado released him before the third season was up. The southpaw posted an unfortunate 5.54 ERA over those two seasons in Colorado with unusually high walk and home run rates.

He’s rejuvenated now, however, having performed well for the Dodgers last season before catching on in San Francisco this year. He owns a 2.72 ERA/3.35 FIP across 62 games totaling 59 2/3 innings with an impressive 31 saves. Since leaving Colorado, his walk and home run rates have returned to normal levels – a 4.2 percent walk rate coming in well below the average mark and a 2.9 percent home run rate being exactly league average. McGee is also striking out a solid 24.3 percent of opponents.

Without McGee, the Giants will turn to Tyler Rogers, Tony Watson, and Dominic Leone to close games, writes Slusser. Rogers has played the part already this season, notching 12 saves while appearing in a league-leading 71 games for Gabe Kapler’s club. Leone has been used more as an opener of late, but he’ll be an option from the right side as well. Watson, a trade deadline acquisition this season, can close from the left side, should the match-ups lean that way.

McGee’s roster spot went to Jay Jackson, who was recalled today from Triple-A. Jackson has spent a decent chunk of time on the active roster and begun to earn Kapler’s trust at times. The 33-year-old has pitched in 22 games for a 3.95 ERA across 20 2/3 innings. Given that Jackson had totaled just 34 2/3 innings in the Majors prior to this season, he’s been a pleasant surprise in limited action for the Giants.

Angels Select Jhonathan Diaz, Reinstate Jose Marte

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The Angels have selected the contract of southpaw Jhonathan Diaz and added him to the active roster to start tonight’s ballgame, the team announced. Diaz, 25, will be making his Major League debut.

The Angels also reinstated righty Jose Marte from the injured list. Marte, 25, made just one appearance this season, and in fact, for his career thus far, tossing two scoreless innings against Cleveland on August 20. He was originally signed by the Giants and sent to the Angels this season as part of the Tony Watson deal.

In terms of departures, veteran Junior Guerra was placed on the 10-day injured list with a left hamstring strain and Elvis Peguero was returned to Triple-A. Guerra has soaked up his share of innings for the halos this season, though he’s struggled to the tune of a 6.06 ERA/4.74 FIP over those 65 1/3 innings. Peguero made just three appearances with the club totaling 2 1/3 innings.

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