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MLB Mailbag: Vlad Jr., Yankees, Seiya Suzuki, Sasaki, Giants

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We (Steve Adams and Tim Dierkes) are on the scene at the Hilton Anatole in Dallas for Day 2 of the Winter Meetings.  At the time of this writing, Tuesday has been quiet in terms of completed deals, but plenty of action is yet to come.  We carved out some time from meandering the lobby to field subscriber questions on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s potential contract, what the Yankees might do after losing out on Juan Soto, the Cubs and the Seiya Suzuki trade situation, the idea of signing Roki Sasaki to an extension, what's next for the Giants, and much more.

Jeff asks: 

Jays fan question - if 26 year old Soto is worth 765M, isn't 26 year old free agent Vlad Jr now worth ~500M? How bad has Ross Atkins bungled his window to sign Vlad at a more reasonable price, over several years of dithering? All the talk had been a Devers comp in the mid-300s, but that ship has surely sailed, right?

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s likely rising price tag was a big topic of conversation around the lobby of the MLB Winter Meetings in Dallas Monday night.

It's worth noting that Guerrero will turn 27 shortly in advance of his first free agent season, as opposed to Juan Soto spending the entire first year of his new deal at the age of 26.  We have rarely seen a prominent free agent hit the market at 27, perhaps with the exception of Carlos Correa's weird three-year post-lockout contract.  Otherwise you're looking at international free agents like Jose Abreu or Seiya Suzuki, or Cody Bellinger who took a one-year deal at that point.

Steve and I spoke to our esteemed former colleague Ben Nicholson-Smith last night about a potential Vlad Jr. price tag, and Ben mentioned Rafael Devers as a comp just as Jeff did in his question.  Indeed, Devers' contract only covers free agent years and started with his age-27 season.  That was a ten-year, $313.5MM extension.  Due to deferred money, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe wrote that the CBT hit on Devers' deal is "just more than $29 million."  In other words, the present value of Devers' deal was below $300MM.  It was also not signed on the open market.

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Sign Up For The Free MLBTR Newsletter

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Did you know MLB Trade Rumors has a free newsletter?  It’s written by Cliff Corcoran, who has an extensive resume contributing to Sports Illustrated, The Athletic, Baseball Prospectus, and other outlets.  Cliff will take you through the hot stove highlights of the previous day, boiling down MLBTR’s posts into the essential stories.  It’s a great weekday morning read, perfect for keeping up with the hectic Winter Meetings.

 

This free newsletter arrives via email Monday through Friday in the morning.  Be sure to check your inbox and click the link in the confirmation email.  If you’re not seeing the box to input your email, you can simply click this link to sign up.

MLB Mailbag: Dodgers, Padres, Vlad Jr., Casas, Nats, Cubs, Giants

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Today's epic pre-Winter Meetings mailbag gets into the Dodgers' deferrals, the golden AB idea, traded Padres prospects, the Blue Jays' failure to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Triston Casas and Boston's paths forward, the Cubs' plans, the Giants and draft pick forfeiture, and much more.

Elden asks:

I recently read that the Dodgers now have over $1 billion in deferred salaries on the books even if the sign nobody else. I admit that they have some pretty deep pockets and can weather almost any financial storm but how is this not a manipulation of the CBT rules? Granted that prices go up all them time but their deferred money alone is 4X the first tax threshold How is this good for baseball?

Not to pick on Elden, but fans don't have a seat at the collective bargaining table between owners and players, so "good for baseball" is largely irrelevant.  At that table, there is "good for owners," and "good for players."

The players like having the option of deferring money.  In February, union leader Tony Clark told Jack Harris of the L.A. Times, "We want the players and their individual representation to have as many tools in the tool bag to work with teams to find common ground."

Plenty of teams like having this option as well.  Yes, the Dodgers have deferred a ton of money, more than any club in recent memory.  But all kinds of contracts have included significant deferrals, for example Boston's Rafael Devers extension or the Nationals' signing of Max Scherzer.  Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman correctly said, "I think the Shohei one was just very extreme. But if you set the Shohei contract aside, the rest are all within the norm and standard operating procedure that a lot of teams have done. But I think the Shohei one is just jarring to people because it's so different and I think that the others just unfairly get lumped into that, but I think it's kind of a lazy narrative."

If there's one thing casual fans love, it's a good lazy narrative.  But why are the Dodgers doing so much of this?  Fabian Ardaya and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote about it in March, suggesting benefits such as "reducing their short-term cash obligations, enabling them to discount luxury-tax numbers and creating flexibility in negotiations with players."

I am not a finance expert, but I'd say the main benefit is reducing short-term cash obligations.  After two years, teams have to put the average annual value in an escrow account, but they can invest all of that and grow it until the player needs to be paid.  And of course, if you're only actually paying Shohei Ohtani $2MM right now, you can spend more on players than if you were paying him $46MM.

It's worth considering, too, that the bill eventually comes due.  If the Dodgers owe retired players, say, $150MM in 2035, that seems like it could reduce their flexibility even if the money was invested along the way.  But what about the Dodgers' competitive balance tax manipulation?

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Free Agent Prediction Contest Leaderboard Now Available

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Our free agent prediction contest leaderboard is now available!  Three of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents have signed: Nick Martinez, Yusei Kikuchi, and Blake Snell.  Over 4,300 people entered the contest, and six have jumped out to an early lead by guessing all three pitchers’ destinations correctly.

If you’re looking for the leaderboard later, it can be found under the Tools menu for desktop users and under the Flame menu for mobile web users.

MLBTR TikTok Focus Group

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This website is 19 years old.  I am the owner of the site, and I’m 42 years old.  I have two teenage children and another who is 12, and they have helped me realize that MLB Trade Rumors might benefit from having a presence on TikTok.

I’ve played around with TikTok recently and understand the basic idea, but it’s not an app I would use naturally.  So before launching an MLB Trade Rumors account, I’d like to talk to people who use TikTok regularly.

We are looking for 12 people for a focus group who meet these criteria:

  • Available to join a Zoom call on Wednesday December 4th at 7pm central time
  • Use TikTok regularly
  • Use this website/app regularly
  • Would like to help us out by answering my questions for an hour.  Generally I am trying to figure out what an entertaining and/or informative MLBTR TikTok account would look like and what you’d like to see.

If you’d like to participate, please enter your email address into this Google Form.  I will select roughly a dozen people at random from that list to participate in a one-hour TikTok/MLB Trade Rumors discussion over Zoom on Wednesday December 4th at 7pm central time.

I assume more than 12 people will add their email, but I think a larger group would be hard to manage for an open discussion.  All who enter their email will be added to a list where I may send emails about future TikTok focus groups or surveys (your email will not be used for any other purpose).

A few quick notes on this topic:

  • I’m not sure we’ll be launching an MLB Trade Rumors TikTok, but I’m leaning toward it.
  • The possibility of TikTok being shut down in the U.S. likely won’t affect my decision, because we’d be cross-posting to YouTube Shorts.
  • This account would not be run by a current member of the MLBTR writing staff.  We would hold a separate hiring process for this, but I’m not ready to do that yet.

MLB Mailbag: Braves, Padres, Red Sox, Rangers, Reds, Rizzo, Buehler

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This week's mailbag gets into Braves, Padres, and Red Sox offseason possibilities, where Anthony Rizzo and Walker Buehler could land, off-the-wall Reds trade ideas, potential Rangers trade partners, and much more.

Bill asks:

What will Atlanta do this offseason with their shortstop, pitching, catching, and outfield needs?

I don't think the Braves will do anything significant at catcher; they might be content to use Chadwick Tromp as Sean Murphy's backup and see how Drake Baldwin comes along.  If they wanted to limit Murphy's playing time, they would've kept Travis d'Arnaud.

In terms of starting pitchers, the Braves have been linked to Walker Buehler, Nick Pivetta, and Nathan Eovaldi so far.  We'll know by Friday whether they tender a contract to Griffin Canning.  I don't love the Pivetta fit, given that he declined a qualifying offer.

12 days ago, Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tossed out some of these same names and also speculated on Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Kevin Gausman, and Shane Bieber.  I consider Kikuchi another viable free agent option, as well as Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and a reunion with Charlie Morton.  The Braves could make a play for Garrett Crochet, or try to trade for Fedde, Sonny Gray, Zack Littell, Jesus Luzardo, Luis Castillo, or Jeffrey Springs.  They could sign Jeff Hoffman as a starter, given how well that strategy worked with Reynaldo Lopez.

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The Ultimate Fan’s Holiday Wishlist: Baseball and Football Edition (Sponsored)

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This is a sponsored post from Legends Memorabilia.

This holiday season, Legends Memorabilia Collection (LMC) offers a gift lineup for the ultimate sports fan. From MLB autographs from Hall of Famers and All-Stars to iconic NFL and college
football memorabilia from the biggest names in the game, this curated guide spotlights top items perfect for the holiday gift-giving season!

For the Baseball Aficionado

  1. Freddie Freeman (LMC Exclusive) and Kiké Hernandez 2024 World Series Champs Signed Memorabilia: Celebrate the glory of the 2024 World Series with signed items from LMC Exclusive
    Freddie Freeman and Kiké Hernandez. Whether it’s a signed baseball, jersey, or photo, these collectibles are bound to be treasured keepsakes from the championship. Additionally, send in your own item to be signed to add a personal touch!
  2. Mike Trout (LMC Exclusive) Autographed Items – Special Holiday Pricing: An exclusive deal for the season, LMC offers Mike Trout autographed memorabilia at a special holiday price. As one of baseball’s all-time greats, Trout’s items are a gift any fan would cherish, offering history and legacy for a price that won’t last long. Personal items
    can also be sent in for Trout to autograph, creating a unique keepsake.
  3. Sandy Koufax Autographed Baseball: An autographed baseball from the legendary Sandy Koufax is a collector’s dream. Known for his incredible career with the Dodgers, Koufax’s signed ball is a timeless piece that will impress fans and collectors alike.
  4. Paul Skenes Autographed Jerseys (LMC Exclusive): Perfect for the LSU and Pittsburgh Pirates fans, these Paul Skenes signed jerseys are exclusively available through LMC. Skenes’ impressive career is just beginning, making this an exciting investment in the next big MLB star.
  5. Ted Simmons Autographed Items (LMC Exclusive): A Hall of Fame catcher, Ted Simmons autographed baseballs are ideal for longtime baseball fans. These signed items are the perfect tribute to Simmons’ impressive career.
  6. Patrick Bailey Autographed Items (LMC Exclusive): Known for his skills behind the plate, Patrick Bailey’s signed items make for an amazing gift. This LMC Exclusive brings Giants fans closer to one of their franchise’s future legends.
  7. Kyle Harrison Autographed Items (LMC Exclusive): Kyle Harrison, San Francisco’s pitching phenom, has autographed items available exclusively through LMC. Get an item signed by this rising star before he cements his place in Giants history.

All MLB items include MLB Authentication.

For the Football Fanatic

  1. Detroit Lions – Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush Autographed Helmets: Celebrate Detroit’s football greats with autographed helmets from two fan-favorite players. Calvin “Megatron” Johnson and Reggie Bush’s signed gear are iconic reminders of their impact on the field and an exciting addition for Lions fans.
  2. LSU Tigers – Tyrann Mathieu and Harold Perkins (LMC Exclusive) Signed Items: LSU fans, look no further! Autographed memorabilia from Tigers legends Tyrann Mathieu and Harold Perkins are available for the ultimate fan experience. Celebrate LSU’s legacy with these iconic signatures from two standout players.
  3. Ohio State Buckeyes – Jeremiah Smith and Jack Sawyer: Buckeye fans can own a piece of Ohio State pride with items signed by rising star Jeremiah Smith and defensive powerhouse and team captain Jack Sawyer. These autographed pieces celebrate both the future and present of Ohio State football, making them a must-have for the true Buckeye faithful.
  4. Ole Miss Rebels – Jaxson Dart and Eli Manning Signed Items: Ole Miss fans can own a piece of Rebels history with items signed by two of their most iconic quarterbacks, Jaxson Dart and Eli Manning. These items celebrate both past and present and are a perfect fit for the Rebel faithful.
  5. USC Trojans – Zachariah Branch (LMC Exclusive) and Reggie Bush: Embrace the Trojan spirit with signed memorabilia from rising star Zachariah Branch and all-time great Reggie Bush. This selection makes the ideal gift for USC fans who love both the team’s future and historic past.

This holiday season, make a sports fan’s dream come true with these unforgettable items from Legends Memorabilia Collection. Whether you’re adding to a collection or gifting a lifelong memory, these exclusive items make for the ultimate surprise under the tree!

Rawlings Gold Glove Winners! (Sponsored)

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This is a sponsored post from Rawlings.

Rawlings Sporting Goods Company, Inc., announced the winners for the 2024 Rawlings Gold Glove Award®, honoring the best individual fielding performances at each position in the American League® and National League®. The winners were unveiled on Nov. 3rd.

Recognized as the best defensive players at their respective positions, this year’s class of honorees includes six previous winners of the Rawlings Gold Glove Award and 14 first-time winners.

Of this group, Matt Chapman has earned the most awards during his career thus far with five at the third base position.

Several teams had multiple winners: the Cleveland Guardians, Kansas City Royals and Seattle Mariners in the American League; and the Colorado Rockies, Milwaukee Brewers and San Francisco Giants in the National League.

“The art of defense is something we’ve deeply admired and treasured over the 67-year history of the Rawlings Gold Glove Award, and this year’s winners are truly masters of their craft,” said Mike Thompson, chief marketing officer for Rawlings.

“It’s evident, from this year’s stacked lineup of Rawlings Gold Glove Award finalists to the newly announced winners, that superior defensive excellence is what differentiates the good from the great in this game.”

How Gold Glove Winners are Selected:

To determine the winners of the 18 defensive position awards, each team’s manager and up to six coaches on his staff voted from a pool of qualified players in their league and could not vote for players from their own team. Additionally, Rawlings includes the SABR Defensive Index™ (SDI) as part of the Rawlings Gold Glove Award selection process, which influences approximately 25 percent of the overall selection total, with the managers’ and coaches’ votes continuing to carry the majority.

To identify the utility award winners, Rawlings collaborated with SABR to create a specialized defensive formula separate from the traditional selection process for the Rawlings Gold Glove Award position winners. Utilizing the SABR formula and additional defensive statistics, Rawlings selected one utility winner from each league.

“We truly value our role in providing the quantitative metrics used to assist in determining the winners of a career-defining honor such as the Rawlings Gold Glove Award,” said Scott Bush, chief executive officer for SABR. “The 20 Rawlings Gold Glove Award recipients this year certainly took defense to a new level, and we congratulate them on their golden achievement this season.”

The Winners!
Below is the complete listing of the 2024 Rawlings Gold Glove Award winners from each league and the number of Rawlings Gold Glove Awards each player has won in his career:

AMERICAN LEAGUE:

  • P: Seth Lugo – Kansas City Royals (1)
  • C: Cal Raleigh – Seattle Mariners (1)
  • 1B: Carlos Santana – Minnesota Twins (1)
  • 2B: Andrés Giménez – Cleveland Guardians (3)
  • 3B: Alex Bregman – Houston Astros (1)
  • SS: Bobby Witt Jr. – Kansas City Royals (1)
  • LF: Steven Kwan – Cleveland Guardians (3)
  • CF: Daulton Varsho – Toronto Blue Jays (1)
  • RF: Wilyer Abreu – Boston Red Sox (1)
  • Utility: Dylan Moore – Seattle Mariners (1)

NATIONAL LEAGUE:

  • P: Chris Sale – Atlanta Braves (1)
  • C: Patrick Bailey – San Francisco Giants (1)
  • 1B: Christian Walker – Arizona Diamondbacks (3)
  • 2B: Brice Turang – Milwaukee Brewers (1)
  • 3B: Matt Chapman – San Francisco Giants (5)
  • SS: Ezequiel Tovar – Colorado Rockies (2)
  • LF: Ian Happ – Chicago Cubs (3)
  • CF: Brenton Doyle – Colorado Rockies (2)
  • RF: Sal Frelick – Milwaukee Brewers (1)
  • UT: Jared Triolo – Pittsburgh Pirates (1)

“I’m honored to have won my very first Rawlings Gold Glove Award alongside such a talented group of athletes, including my own teammate, which makes it even more special for me,” said Cal Raleigh, catcher for the Seattle Mariners. “I can’t wait to wear the iconic Rawlings gold patch on my gear and glove as Gold Glovers like Johnny Bench, Yadier Molina and Salvador Perez have done throughout their impressive careers as catchers.”

About the Rawlings Gold Glove Award®:

The Rawlings Gold Glove Award® is a registered trademark owned by Rawlings Sporting Goods Company, Inc. The award is correctly identified as the Rawlings Gold Glove Award. The name should not be shortened, abbreviated, or otherwise misused. Proper identification of this service mark using the registration symbol and the Rawlings name is important to protect the integrity of the program and perpetuate this worthy tradition. For more information including how players qualify for the Award, please visit www.Rawlings.com.

About Rawlings®:

Established in 1887, Rawlings is an innovative leading global brand and manufacturer of premium baseball and softball equipment, including gloves, balls, and protective headwear. Rawlings’ unparalleled quality, innovative engineering and expert craftsmanship are the fundamental reasons why more professional athletes, national governing bodies and sports leagues choose Rawlings.

Rawlings is the official glove, baseball, helmet and faceguard, and base of Major League Baseball, the official baseball of Minor League Baseball and the official baseball and softball of the NCAA and NAIA, and the official softball of the NJCAA. For more information, please visit www.Rawlings.com.

Links To MLBTR’s Team Social Media Pages

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If you prefer your MLBTR fix limited to only your favorite team, we’ve got you covered.  Below are links to our team Facebook, X, and RSS pages and feeds.  Our previous Braves Facebook page got lost to the ether, so we’ve created a new one here.  The Cardinals Facebook page needed a jumpstart, but it should be fine moving forward.  If you see anything else amiss, please let us know in the comments or through our contact form.

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