Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks has still not begun throwing in his recovery from a mid-season capsular tear in his shoulder, per Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports. While the delay in his recovery is enough to cause some concern, Wittenmyer notes that there’s not yet reason to think that Hendricks won’t be ready for spring training. Hendricks was originally due to resume playing catch at the end of the season, but the plan is now to start that in November.
Hendricks posted a 4.80 ERA across 16 starts this season before going down with injury. Hendricks’ HardHit% soared in 2022, standing at 38.8%, well above his second highest mark of 33%, which occurred last season. As one would expect, that translated into a higher home run rate and Hendricks gave up almost one per start this season. It’s the second straight season that’s been the case, as Hendricks suffered from a lift in home runs on the way to a 4.77 ERA across 32 starts in 2021. Prior to that, Hendricks was an incredibly reliable arm for the Cubs, regularly hitting 30 starts and posting ERAs in the mid-to-lower threes.
While Hendricks has experienced some decline in recent years, he’s still a much-needed workhorse for the Cubs rotation. They’ll have veteran Marcus Stroman back next year as well as the impressive Justin Steele. Beyond that, Keegan Thompson, Adrian Sampson and Hayden Wesneski all showed varying degrees of promise to suggest they’ll feature in the rotation next season, but none can be reasonably pencilled in to make 30 starts. Steele, too, is no sure thing workload-wise having pitched a career high 119 innings in 2022, though the promise he showed in pitching to a 3.18 ERA with the peripherals to match suggest the Cubs will certainly be looking to get big innings out of him.
The uncertainty over Hendricks’ immediate future could provide further motivation for the Cubs to be active in the starting pitcher market this winter. A competitive Cubs team in 2023 probably already needed an arm or two in the rotation, and if Hendricks’ recovery is set back any further that need will only increase. Hendricks is owed $14MM in 2023, and has a $16MM team option for 2024 with a $1.5MM buyout.