Hello, friends.

In a sport with as much variance as baseball, there are few highs like those of catching some small-sample lightning early. Whether it's a favorite late-round draft pick currently cashing sleeper checks, or someone you pounced on after they came out of the ether to explode in a way Yoan Moncada only dreams about -- finding early gems is always fun.

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Hello, friends.

"Welcome back!" he said, staring into a mirror. Apologies for my absence during literally the most inconvenient month of the year; wrist injuries wait for no man. Or, at least, they made this man wait until he could type with less pain. But we're back, baby -- and we're more Nick than ever?

Well, anything interesting happen recently? Ha! That question was a ruse -- in fact, many interesting things have shaken up the fantasy baseball snowglobe of information we were working with all through the draft season. That's the tough thing about early-season fantasy: Is everything noise, or is anything real? What to react to and what to ignore?

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Hello friends.

Ooops, I did it again. And by it, I mean went full clickbait on the title. Sorry but it made me laugh.

Do you know what's not a laughing matter, though? Going into your draft feeling unprepared. Or even if you are prepared, not feeling confident in your ability to find the edges that'll let you draft a championship contender. Well, fear not, my friends -- the answers lie within. Clickbait, smlickbait --we're going to teach a couple of easy ways to put you on the road from joe to pro. And there's even a free prize at the bottom of the box.

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Hello friends.

The Gauts remain buried in Midwest snow and single-digit temps, but the good news is I've become super proficient in virtual learning/hiding from my kids to sneak away to write fantasy nerd stuff. They always find me, though...Always.

Regardless, let me warm up my fantasy soul with some regression-fueled hate. Wait! Hold on; just wait. I know "regression" can be a dirty word for some, as it's too often used as a crutch to explain both the good and the bad. Its disciples can go too heavy with their reliance while the detractors get set against all things analytical and too often throw out all the good with the bad.

Like most things, an extreme path is rarely best. Regression can be good and regression can be bad; it's all relative, baby. Just like we shouldn't assume that a 3.00 xFIP will translate to a 3.00 ERA in the future, we also shouldn't assume a 4.00 xFIP will equal a 4.00 ERA.

No individual number tells the whole story in baseball, but they can serve as markers, good or bad, pointing out areas that may warrant further examination. And while one bad flag doesn't necessarily mean disaster, worry should pile up as the number of red flags mounts.

Let's look at three starters who were excellent last season but have more red flags than a Turkish semaphore team. That's right -- a flag-signaling joke. Deal with it.

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Helllo friends.

Happy Valentine's Day! Or, as I like to call it, Happy My Birthday Eve! That's right, y'all -- much like a bearded Cupid, this cherubic lothario was born just a whisper from our Hallmark-created day of lo-oove. Fitting but a little on the nose, if I say so myself.

Any-who. I know you're not here for love-talk, you're ready to mainline some of that hot sleepiness right into your fantasy veins. Well, don't let me hold us back anymore. It's time to get back to America's #1 (probably) fantasy baseball fake award show...

It's the Sleepys!

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Ya-aawwwwwn. Much like the mighty grizzly bear, I've spent the cold winter months of the midwest hibernating in my west county burrow. The calendar has now flipped to February, though, and I've awakened to see all of the telltale signs heralding the full arrival of fantasy baseball season... Football is finally ending and birds are almost chirping, while dozens of podcasts extensively extol the virtues of the same seven players. And just yesterday, Eno Sarris emerged from his local craft brewery and saw his own merm's shadow, officially ushering in 30 more weeks of content. Huzzah!

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Hello, friends.

This is the best and most exciting week of the fantasy season. It's a time for taking the final steps towards a championship, staying laser-focused on every minute decision within your control; whether to eke out one or two more points to pass your final rival in roto (or keep from being passed) or trying to win one final head-to-head matchup.

Or, perhaps it's a time to coast because your in-season dominance has been such that the chances of being caught have approached a literal zero. Ahh, now that's nice -- getting to enjoy the fruits of your labors a week early, taking deep inhales from championship flowers while exhaling some cutting and clever burns on your vanquished league-mates, perhaps referencing their past trash talk that now seems very foolish, in hindsight. "Ha-ha!", you might say. "You said that my fantasy baseball team was going to be very bad but it is, in fact, the best fantasy baseball team. In your face -- ha-ha, HA!".*

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Hello friends.

Congratulations to those who have made it this far, but for most the journey will not be finished until the very end. With less than two weeks to go, many races will separated by just a few points, with razor-thin margins on multiple categories allowing for the possibility of many endings. Translation: All's well and good right up until you lose a championship on the last day by one-hundredth of a point in batting average and a single stolen base*.

*Not that this exact situation has ever happened to me. Nope, definitely not ever, and even if it had, I certainly would've gotten over it by now and wouldn't still be bitter.

Every one of these last games can be huge but waiver-wires are thin and most hold little overall value. But category specialists can still be found, as can overlooked players on bad teams, and teams who play their last six games on the moon. With that in mind, let's use the rest-of-season projections from Razzball and see if we can find anything floating around the wire.

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Hello friends.

Some of you may still be chasing championships but for many that time has officially come and gone. You know it, your league knows it, all that's left is for the official horn to sound. Before you totally check out, though, and head on over to the land of big hits, exciting actions, and pudding brains, let's pause to appreciate a few excellent performances from some new starting pitchers on the scene.

Trusting starters without an appreciable body of work is one of the most dangerous games in fantasy baseball and can burn you, year in and year out. Sometimes it's believing in a repeat performance that never materializes; sometimes it's the cost of the lost opportunities if you instead keep your heart closed to new blood and assume regression that never comes. Regardless, wouldn't it be nice to not be doomed to a season of haunting questions like, "What if I'd drafted Jack Flaherty instead of Bobby Miller?", and "Maybe Merrill Kelly had to go to South Korea for a reason?"

The world will never know, my friends, but let's still try to get out in front of next year's pain by digging in on some guys who could possibly continue their breakouts into the future.

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Hello friends.

Labor Day is behind us and the calendar has officially flipped to the last month of everyone's championship runs...hopefully.

For those out of the race, we salute you. But for those that remain, a month of difficult decisions may await you because, unlike the previous five months, we're basically out of road on the whole "will so-and-so turn it around?" portion of the proceedings. The band of players you may be willing to sit in favor of some new hotness will continue to expand, as there's officially no time to wait. No time to wait for lingering injuries to clear up, no time for sluggish stars to get going again, no time to wait for bad offenses to suddenly become good, with their rising tides lifting the counting stats of everyone around.

Given that, we need to sort out the possible chaff from this final harvest of wheat. Let's get to it.

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