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The Opener: Braves, Trade Market, Relief Market

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:

1. Braves getting down to business:

Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has long been known for his desire to move quickly during the offseason, and yesterday saw him kick off Atlanta’s offseason in a big way. The team re-signed closer Raisel Iglesias on a one-year deal worth $16MM and followed that move up by swinging a trade with the Astros for utilityman Mauricio Dubon. Iglesias helps to steady a bullpen mix that bid farewell to righties Tyler Kinley and Pierce Johnson when their club options were declined. Dubon gives the club a viable answer at shortstop should they fail to find an upgrade elsewhere and an excellent bench piece if he does wind up squeezed out of the starting lineup. In addition to further exploring the shortstop market, Atlanta will be on the hunt for rotation help and another reliever or two.

2. Trade market heating up?

The Dubon deal was the second notable trade in as many days, joining the surprise swap of Taylor Ward for Grayson Rodriguez between the Angels and Orioles. Neither Ward nor Rodriguez was a potential non-tender candidate, but Dubon and Nick Allen (whom the Astros acquired in exchange for Dubon) both might have been on their previous teams. MLBTR’s list of non-tender candidates released yesterday, and GMs around the league will surely be focused on trying to work out trades for any of their players who they don’t plan to tender a contract to tomorrow over the next day. Some notable trade candidates on that list include Jonah Heim, Adolis Garcia, Jonathan India, Alec Bohm, Jesus Sanchez, and Bailey Falter.

3. Could Iglesias spark more relief market movement?

Iglesias re-upping with the Braves wasn’t exactly a shocking move, given Atlanta’s proclivity towards familiar faces and a need for help at the back of a bullpen that lacked certainty outside of Dylan Lee and Aaron Bummer. Even so, there have been indications this winter that the market for relief arms could move more quickly than other parts of free agency. Iglesias is far from the only interesting name available in a market led by Edwin Diaz. Robert Suarez, Ryan Helsley, and Devin Williams are all notable names who should get strong contracts this winter, while Brad Keller, Pete Fairbanks, and Luke Weaver might lack that star power but would still be exciting additions to the back of virtually any bullpen. Who will be the next to sign?

Poll: The Royals’ Second Base Decision

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Just under a year ago, the Royals and Reds made one of the first significant trades of the 2024-25 offseason when Kansas City acquired Jonathan India and Joey Wiemer in exchange for right-hander Brady Singer. The trade made plenty of sense at the time, as the Reds were in need of some reliability in their rotation while the Royals were desperate for offensive upgrades in the lineup. Singer fulfilled his role with the Reds for the most part, pitching to a solid 4.03 ERA in 32 starts. Things haven’t been quite so rosy on the Royals’ side of the equation, as Wiemer did not appear in an MLB game for the organization and India fell well short of expectations.

In 136 games this past year, the 28-year-old India split time between second base, third base, and left field while hitting .233/.323/.346 (89 wRC+). He was essentially a replacement level player, worth 0.4 WAR according Baseball Reference and -0.3 according to Fangraphs. That might sound surprising considering that India was within spitting distance of league average offensively and collected 567 plate appearances, but his defense was atrocious. His -14 Outs Above Average this year was in the first percentile among all qualified fielders, and he drew negative grades at every position he played. His -6 Defensive Runs Saved weren’t quite as ugly but still well below par.

Did India struggle enough that his first year in Kansas City will also be his last? He’s due to go through the arbitration process one final time in 2026, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a $7.4MM salary next year. That’s a hefty chunk of change to spend on a replacement level player, especially for a Royals club that doesn’t have much money to spend this winter without first making room in the budget. While Michael Massey’s 57 wRC+ in 77 games was even more disastrous than India’s 2025 campaign, Massey is projected for a salary of just $2MM next year and is controlled through the 2028 season.

It’s undeniable that India had the better numbers of the two and looking at his advanced metrics creates an argument that he could’ve easily been an average or better hitter with a little luck. His 18.7% strikeout rate was actually the lowest of his career, and while a 9.5% walk rate was below his career norms it was still above league average. The big problems for India were that his BABIP dropped twenty points below his career norms while he managed to slug just nine home runs after being consistently good for 15 to 20 homer power during his time with the Reds.

The good news is that India’s expected numbers were stronger than his actual production, so there’s at least some reason to believe he could bounce back a bit in his age-29 season. Some of that reduction in power figures to be due to the difference between Great American Ballpark and Kauffman Stadium, however, as the Reds play at one of the friendliest stadiums in the majors for homers while the Royals undeniably have a pitcher’s park. Meanwhile, Massey’s season offers little in the way of statistical signs that better days on the way, but it’s still worth noting he was a quality player as recently as last year and his 2025 season was marred by multiple injuries, including an ankle sprain and a broken wrist. Perhaps all Massey needs to turn things around for his age-28 season is better health.

If the Royals decided to stick with both players, they’d been committing nearly $10MM to what would essentially be a second base platoon that was below replacement level in 2025. That’s a big gamble given the club’s limited resources, but there aren’t really any safe options at the club’s disposal. Non-tendering both players would leave the team with a hole and a free agent class somewhat thin on mid-tier infield talent (Willi Castro, Miguel Rojas) isn’t likely to provide a substantial upgrade, leaving them to pursue possible trade candidates like Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman. Non-tendering India would free up the majority of that money while still keeping Massey in house as a potential upside option, but it’s unclear if someone who would be better than India would be available at his price tag anyway. Non-tendering Massey would save a modest amount of money but, given his years of control, would only make sense if the team doesn’t believe he’ll be able to rebound. The non-tender deadline is Friday, giving the Royals just a few more days to make a decision.

How do MLBTR readers think the Royals should address second base this winter? Should they go with India, go with Massey, keep both, or send both packing in search of a new answer? Have your say in the poll below:

The Opener: Orioles, DFA Limbo, Top 50 FA Podcast

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Here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on today:

1. What’s next for the Orioles?

Last night’s surprising trade between the Orioles and Angels saw Baltimore bring Taylor Ward into the outfield mix, while Anaheim added a high upside arm to their rotation in Grayson Rodriguez. There’s little reason to wonder why the Angels swapped a rental bat for a roll of the dice on a young pitcher under long-term control who was once among the very best pitching prospects in baseball.

Baltimore’s motivations aren’t quite so easy to parse, given that the club’s outfield was already somewhat crowded with Ward now joining Tyler O’Neill, Colton Cowser, Dylan Beavers, Leody Taveras, Heston Kjerstad and prospect Enrique Bradfield. The trade helps balance out a lefty-heavy Orioles lineup, but Baltimore was already in clear need of additional rotation help. Might the addition of Ward signal that the O’s are prepared to use some of their existing outfield depth to help land a starter? Will they simply turn to the free agent market to fill out their starting staff?

2. Several players in DFA limbo ahead of non-tender deadline:

A large number of players were designated for assignment ahead of yesterday’s deadline to protect prospects from the Rule 5 draft. JJ Bleday, Christopher Morel, Jake Fraley, Tayler Saucedo, Jason Foley, and Ramon Urias stand out among the most notable names to end up in limbo after yesterday’s moves, and now those players figure to be available to any team interested in trading for them at a minimal price before their current teams likely non-tender them this coming Friday. Rangers outfielder Adolis Garcia and catcher Jonah Heim weren’t designated for assignment, but they’re being shopped ahead of Friday’s non-tender deadline. Will Texas line up on a deal for either of the two?

3. MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent podcast:

A special episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast goes live today, as Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco for a two-hour conversation covering MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 MLB Free Agents for the 2025-26 offseason with predictions. Whether it’s a discussion of Kyle Tucker and MLBTR’s $400MM prediction for the offseason’s top free agent, or the unpredictability of Dylan Cease’s market coming off a relative down season, the podcast provides insight into the discussions that went into this year’s Top 50 list. The episode is already live on both Spotify and Apple Podcasts, and will be posted here on MLBTR later this morning!

Rangers Shopping Jonah Heim, Adolis Garcia

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The Rangers are shopping catcher Jonah Heim and outfielder Adolis Garcia ahead of the non-tender deadline on November 21st, according to a report from ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Passan adds that both players are candidates to be non-tendered if Texas is unable to work out trades for them.

Both longtime stalwarts of the Texas lineup were featured on MLBTR’s list of the Top 40 Trade Candidates for the 2025-26 offseason. While Heim and Garcia were both key parts of the core that won the 2023 World Series for the Rangers, neither has played especially well since then. Heim was a four-win player and an All-Star in 2023 but since then has slashed just .217/.269/.334 (71 wRC+) in 255 games with sharply declining defensive metrics behind the plate. Garcia has fallen from similar heights, as he garnered MVP votes and won a Gold Glove in 2023 but has hit just .225/.278/.397 (89 wRC+) in 289 games the past two seasons.

Given each player’s past success, it’s not impossible to imagine either one bouncing back to be quality players in 2026. With that being said, the Rangers are facing payroll constraints this winter that will make it difficult for them to roll the dice on either player. That makes the decision to shop them on the trade market an easy one, as they can look to potentially recoup some value for one or both players before they’re forced to either pay the pair hefty arbitration salaries or non-tender them, cutting them from the organization for no return whatsoever.

Of the two, Heim appears to be far more tradable. He’s projected for a salary of just $6MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz in 2026 as he heads into his age-31 campaign. That’s not a particularly onerous figure for even teams with real budgetary concerns, and between that light salary and the dearth of quality catching options around the league it would make sense if another club was interested in rolling the dice on Heim. Teams like the Rays, Padres, Astros, and Phillies all could be in the market for catching help this winter and could consider giving Heim a look.

Garcia, by contrast, seems harder to convince a team to take a chance on. He’s entering his age-33 season and is projected for a $12.1MM salary in 2026. While the market for right-handed outfielders is somewhat sparse this winter, players like Austin Hays, Miguel Andujar, and Rob Refsnyder all provided above-average offensive production from a corner outfield spot this past year and would likely be able to be had for much less than Garcia’s arbitration price tag. Teams might even see Garcia as more comparable to a roll of the dice on a player like Randal Grichuk, Lane Thomas, or Starling Marte, any of whom could be had in free agency much more affordably without having to trade anything away.

As for the Rangers, they’ll need to find another complement to Kyle Higashioka behind the plate if they wind up trading or non-tendering Heim. Garcia would be easier to replace internally given the presence of controllable outfielders like Alejandro Osuna and Michael Helman, though the team’s need for more offense could still lead them to peruse external additions to help Wyatt Langford, Josh Smith, and Evan Carter out on the grass as well.

Mets Making Brandon Nimmo, Kodai Senga Available In Trade Talks

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With Pete Alonso and Edwin Diaz headed into free agency on the heels of a season where the Mets shockingly missed the postseason, it goes without saying that some significant changes will be coming to the Mets’ roster this winter. Much of the focus, naturally, has been on potential additions, whether that’s bringing back Alonso and Diaz or making a splash in the starting pitching market. There’s also been plenty of talk regarding players the Mets could look to part ways with on the trade market, however, and today Jeff Passan of ESPN made clear that two more names are available on the Mets’ roster: outfielder Brandon Nimmo and right-hander Kodai Senga.

Nimmo, 33 in March, is a somewhat surprising trade candidate due to the many complications surrounding a potential deal. The veteran has spent all ten seasons of his MLB career in Queens and has a no-trade clause. Nimmo would have to agree to any trade, which would naturally limit his suitors. While hardly an albatross, his contract isn’t exactly appealing, either. Nimmo has five years left on the eight-year, $162MM contract he signed with the Mets during the 2022-23 offseason. Just over $101MM of that money has yet to be paid out, and it’s hard to imagine Nimmo approaching five years and $101MM in free agency this winter if he was a free agent.

That would likely leave the Mets in a position where they would need to pay down a significant portion of Nimmo’s contract in order to facilitate a deal. Nimmo has been generally productive throughout his time in New York but has watched his numbers fall off a bit over the past two seasons. Since the start of the 2024 campaign, he’s slashed a combined .244/.326/.418 with 48 homers and 52 doubles, a 22.7% strikeout rate against a 9.8% walk rate, and a wRC+ of 111. He’s been worth 5.8 WAR according to Fangraphs and 5.1 WAR according to Baseball Reference over the past two years. While he was once a capable center fielder, his defense has dropped off enough that he’s more of a roughly average glove in a corner outfield spot, with -1 Outs Above Average and +3 Defensive Runs Saves in outfield this season with him starting 146 of his 147 games in the field out in left.

A two-to-three win corner outfielder is certainly something plenty of teams could use, and Nimmo does deserve acknowledgement for his reliability. Outside of his 32-game debut season in 2016, Nimmo has never posted a wRC+ below 108. Injury woes early in his career have subsided as well, and he’s played in at least 150 games with at least 650 plate appearances in each of the past four years. That four year stretch has seen him average 22 homers, 28 doubles, and a 10.2% walk rate against a 21.0% strikeout rate. With an above average track record in the outfield, he’ll surely be appealing to teams if the Mets were willing to pay down enough of his salary to make the inevitable decline as Nimmo enters his mid-to-late 30s easier to stomach.

Finding a fit for Nimmo’s services depends entirely on how much money the Mets would be willing to eat and where Nimmo would be willing to be traded. The Royals and Guardians are two of the teams most desperately in need of outfield help in the game, but they operate with small budgets and may not be the sort of consistent contender a veteran like Nimmo would surely prefer to play for. The Phillies have money to spend, a hole in the outfield, and recent success, but it would be a shock to see the Mets trade a franchise stalwart to one of their biggest rivals. Perhaps the Yankees would be a fit as they look for outfield help, though the club may simply prefer to re-sign Cody Bellinger or Trent Grisham rather than bring Nimmo into the fold.

As for Senga, the mercurial right-hander has already been known to be garnering interest on the market, though the Mets’ level of interest in moving hasn’t been clear. Passan reports that the righty is “extremely available,” however, and adds that multiple executives expect him to be traded this winter. The Orioles, Cubs, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Padres are on a long list of teams known to be looking for starting pitching help this winter, and any could make sense as trade partners for the Mets if they do decide to move Senga. The two years and $28MM guaranteed remaining on Senga’s contract could make him a particularly intriguing fit for teams hoping to fill a rotation spot on a budget like San Diego.

While the Mets are expected to add to their rotation rather than subtract this winter, room will need to be made in the rotation mix for external additions as well as up-and-coming youngsters like Nolan McLean and Brandon Sproat.  That’s enough to make a Senga trade worth thinking about for the front office, especially given the highs that could make him enticing to suitors have been matched by equally distressing lows.

The righty sports a career 3.00 ERA and 3.82 FIP across three seasons in the majors to go with a 26.8% strikeout rate, but an 11.1% walk rate, struggles bouncing back from injuries, and the fact that he’ll turn 33 in January all raise questions about his future. Senga struggled badly enough in the second half this past year that he agreed to be optioned to the minor leagues in September and would only have been part of the Mets’ playoff picture if their rotation mix suffered multiple October injuries, suggesting that the organization had little faith in the righty at the end of this past season.

Kazuma Okamoto To Be Posted November 19th

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It’s been known for nearly a month now that NPB infielder Kazuma Okamoto is set to be posted by the Yomiuri Giants this winter, but a report from Nikkan Sports (Japanese language link) this morning provided a bit more specificity regarding Okamoto’s timeline. He’ll be officially posted tomorrow, on November 19th, and that will kick off a 45-day window for teams to negotiate with Okamoto, who is represented by Scott Boras of the Boras Corporation.

That’s the same posting date as right-hander Tatsuya Imai, a fellow Boras client. Boras told reporters (including those at Nikkan Sports) that the pair would follow the same approximate timeline. They’ll be posted tomorrow before traveling to the United States in early December. That sets them up to be in the country in time to begin negotiations with clubs ahead of this year’s Winter Meetings, which are set to run from December 7 through December 10 this year. The posting window for both Okamoto and Imai is set to end in early January, but it would not be a surprise to see the pair to sign before the holidays given the slowdown of activity around that time.

Turning back to Okamoto specifically, the 29-year-old is coming off a strong season in 2025 that was abbreviated by an elbow injury. While he only played in 69 games, he managed to slash .327/.416/.598 with 15 homers and 21 doubles in just 293 trips to the plate. He also showed strong contact ability and plate discipline with 11.3% strikeout and walk rates. That’s an unusually low strikeout rate by his standards, but even his 17.7% clip since the start of the 2018 season is nothing to scoff at. Impressive as Okamoto’s career .277/.361/.521 slash line in Central League play is, however, it’s worth remembering that NPB pitchers often lack the same high-end velocity that has become routine in MLB. Some scouting reports, including that of Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, have noted that Okamoto’s numbers suffer against mid-90s and higher velocity. Of course, that’s also a flaw that can improve with great exposure to those types of pitches.

Okamoto has spent plenty of time at both infield corners over the years, and there’s been some debate about his fit defensively in the majors. He’s generally viewed as more capable of sticking long-term at the hot corner than fellow infielder Munetaka Murakami, though it’s fair to expect some teams to view him as capable of being a regular at third while others see him as more of a first base only defender. Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso stand at the top of the third and first base markets, respectively, with Eugenio Suarez, Jorge Polanco, and Luis Arraez standing out among the other notable corner infield options available.

MLBTR predicted a four-year, $64MM deal for Okamoto at the outset of the offseason, though it’s worth noting there’s at least some reason to believe Okamoto, Imai, and Murakami could all outperform expectations financially, at least to some extent. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that some MLB clubs are hoping to “avoid falling further behind” the Dodgers in the Japanese market, and that this sentiment could help the three top NPB talents coming over from Japan this winter secure better-than-expected deals.

The team that ultimately signs Okamoto will owe Yomiuri a posting fee on top of whatever they guarantee the infield. The posting fee works out to be 20% of the first $25MM Okamoto signs for, 17.5% of the contract’s next $25MM, and 15% of any money above the $50MM mark. If Okamoto were to sign for the $64MM guarantee MLBTR predicted he’ll land, the signing team would owe a posting fee of approximately $11.5MM, which would take the total financial outlay for Okamoto’s services to $75.5MM.

The Opener: QO Deadline, Rule 5 Protection Deadline, Naylor

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Deadline for qualifying offer decisions:

Today’s the deadline for players who were extended the qualifying offer to make their decisions on whether to accept the QO or head into free agency encumbered by draft pick compensation. The majority of the 13 players who received a QO will reject it without much thought, but there are a handful of edge cases who could at least consider accepting the one-year, $22.05MM deal rather than testing the open market. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco conducted a poll of MLBTR readers last night that suggested fans believe Tigers second baseman Gleyber Torres is the most likely player to accept. That’s MLBTR’s own judgment, as well; Torres was the only player we predicted would accept the QO in our Top 50 MLB free agents list. Shota Imanaga, Zac Gallen, and Trent Grisham are among the other players who could plausibly opt to accept the QO today.

2. Rule 5 protection deadline:

Today isn’t just the deadline for QO decisions. While the QO decisions get much of the attention, today’s deadline on protecting prospects from the Rule 5 draft by adding them to the 40-man roster figures to impact every club in the league. Teams with cluttered 40-man rosters will be looking to either trade Rule 5 eligible prospects they can’t fit on the roster or discard players already on the 40-man to make room for those prospects. Meanwhile, teams with plenty of 40-man roster space will be looking for the opportunity to add players squeezed out of other organizations to their own rosters. While the Rule 5 draft itself won’t occur until the Winter Meetings next month, today’s efforts to protect players from it figure to spark plenty of movement around the league.

3. Naylor introductory press conference:

Josh Naylor’s five-year deal with the Mariners is now official. As a result, the Mariners are hosting a press conference to officially re-introduce Naylor to the media as a long-term member of the organization later today. Naylor himself will be present, of course, as well as his agent, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and GM Justin Hollander. Dipoto and Hollander’s presence could leave the door open for hints towards the Mariners’ plans for the rest of their offseason, which could offer insight onto how they’ll continue to build on this year’s team after missing the World Series by just one game and making one of the largest free agent investments of Dipoto’s tenure with the organization into Naylor.

Phillies Interested In Re-Signing Harrison Bader

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After a disappointing seasons that saw them earn a bye through the Wild Card series but immediately fall to the Dodgers in the NLDS, the Phillies are in an uncertain spot as the team figures to look very different by the time Opening Day rolls around. Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto are free agents, while Nick Castellanos is expected to play elsewhere next year. While the team’s roster is in flux more than usual this winter, it’s long seemed likely that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski would look to engage with some of those outgoing free agents.

That includes some players who haven’t been around quite as long as the team’s veteran core, as Dombrowski indicated to reporters (including Lochlan March of The Philadelphia Inquirer) that the team not only has interest in bringing free agent outfielder Harrison Bader back into the fold, but has also conveyed that to Bader’s camp already this winter.

“They know we’d like to bring him back,” Dombrowski said during last week’s GM Meetings, as relayed by March. “They also had expressed that they want to see what’s out there, because this was the best year he’s had, I think, in quite a while.”

That would seem to indicate that Bader won’t be jumping the market to sign right away, the way Josh Naylor did last night when he re-upped with the Mariners. Still, a reunion between Bader and the Phillies would make plenty of sense. After being dealt to the Phillies from the Twins at the trade deadline, Bader found another gear amid what was already a career year. In 50 games with Philadelphia, Bader slashed .300/.361/.463 (129 wRC+) to boost his season-long slash line to .277/.347/.449 (122 wRC+). Bader’s 7.8% walk rate was his best full-season mark since 2019, and while he struck out at an elevated 27.1% clip he made up for it by slugging a career-high 17 homers and 24 doubles.

This year’s performance from Bader was enough for him to profile as a solid regular in an outfield corner offensively, but even as his defensive metrics have slipped from once-elite levels he remains a solidly above average defender all across the grass, including center field. That adds a solid floor of production to the upside Bader flashed this year, and it’s been widely speculated that the 31-year-old will be able to land a multi-year guarantee this year on the back of his strong 2025, and MLBTR’s own prediction is that he’ll secure a two-year, $26MM guarantee.

For a team that enters the offseason with only Brandon Marsh locked into its outfield for next year, it’s easy to see why bringing back Bader would make plenty of sense. With that said, the Phillies are far from the only team that Bader could be a fit for. His old stomping grounds in both Queens and the Bronx could both use a center fielder, and teams like the Angels, Orioles, Guardians, Giants, and Royals are all known to be on the prowl for help either in center or the outfield generally this winter.

Some of those teams may be priced out of Bader’s market when all is said and done, and not all of them are perfect fits, but it’s a large enough cast of potential suitors that even with Philadelphia’s interest in a reunion Bader could have some incentive to wait out the market for at least a little while yet. Meanwhile, the Phillies will need to prioritize bigger ticket free agents like Schwarber and Realmuto themselves, whether that comes by way of re-signing them outright or finding another way to replace their production for 2026.

Padres Re-Sign Kyle Hart

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The Padres announced they’ve re-signed Kyle Hart to a one-year deal with a club option for the 2027 season. The Nello Gamberdino client is reportedly guaranteed $1.2MM. He’ll be paid $1MM in 2026 and is guaranteed a $200K buyout on the $2.5MM option. The option price would climb by $250K apiece if Hart reaches 16 and 20 starts next season; it’d jump another $500K at 24, 28 and 32 starts. The buyout price would climb by $100K each at 50, 55 and 60 appearances.

Hart, 33 next week, posted a 5.86 ERA in 43 innings of work for the Padres this past year while splitting time between the rotation and bullpen. The lefty inked a $1.5MM guarantee with San Diego back in February that came with a $5MM club option for the 2026 season that Padres opted to decline earlier this month. That wasn’t necessarily a shock given his lackluster performance; even during his time at Triple-A El Paso, Hart posted a middling 4.10 ERA in 63 2/3 innings of work with a strikeout rate of just 18.5%. 2025 marked his first work in the majors since his 2020 big league debut with the Red Sox, which lasted all of 11 innings.

During the interim, Hart had bounced between various minor league affiliates before heading overseas to pitch for the KBO’s NC Dinos. He made 26 starts for the Dinos in 2024 and pitched exceptionally, with a 2.69 ERA and a 28.8% strikeout rate across 157 innings of work. It was a strong enough season that Hart looked to return to the big leagues and see what he could do at the highest level, but things didn’t work out quite so well last year. Hart is hardly the first player to dominate overseas but struggle to replicate his production stateside, as even 2023 KBO MVP Erick Fedde struggled in the big leagues this past year after enjoying a strong return season with the White Sox and Cardinals in 2024.

Regardless of Hart’s struggles last year, however, it’s understandable that San Diego decided to re-up with the lefty for 2026. The Padres are a team in desperate need of volume when it comes to rotation-capable arms. Dylan Cease and Michael King have both departed the organization for free agency and, while Joe Musgrove is expected back next year from injury, it’s already known that Yu Darvish won’t pitch next year. Musgrove and Nick Pivetta are both quality veterans, but Randy Vasquez, JP Sears, and Matt Waldron are all questionable as quality regulars in a contending rotation. That’s true of Hart as well, of course, but having additional depth behind that group figures to be valuable in order to avoid a situation like the one San Diego faced in 2021 when a lack of pitching depth forced them to turn to displaced veterans like Jake Arrieta and Vince Velasquez as they narrowly missed the playoffs due to a late September collapse.

Signing Hart helps fill out the depth on a budget, but it won’t do much to solve the problem of San Diego needing additional impact in the rotation. The Padres have operated with some financial uncertainty in the years since Peter Seidler’s death, and the recent announcement that ownership intends to explore a sale of the franchise further clouds the club’s financial picture in the short-term. That’s not to say making a splash in free agency and adding a mid-rotation or better arm to the mix is completely out of the question; they did manage to find room in the budget to add Pivetta just last year, after all. That could lead to a creative solution like trying Mason Miller or Adrian Morejon in the rotation as the team’s best option if they hope to add an impact starter with a pursuit of someone at the top of the market like Cease or Framber Valdez seemingly unlikely.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the guarantee, option price/buyout, and maximum value of the escalators. The Associated Press had the specific escalator breakdown. Image courtesy of Patrick Gorski, Imagn Images.

Yankees Re-Sign Ryan Yarbrough

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The Yankees officially re-signed Ryan Yarbrough to a one-year deal. The Excel Sports Management client is reportedly guaranteed $2.5MM with another $250K available in bonuses. He’d unlock $50K apiece for every ten innings pitched between 75 and 115.

Assuming the deal makes it over the finish line, it’ll be a starkly different offseason experience than Yarbrough had last year, when he lingered on the market until February before catching on with the Blue Jays on a minor league deal. He opted out of that deal just before Opening Day, which led him to a major league contract with the Yankees for the 2025 campaign. It was a decent enough year for the lefty in the Bronx, as he pitched to a 4.36 ERA across 64 innings of work split between eight starts and 11 relief appearances.

That’s roughly league average (94 ERA+) production on the surface, and more advanced metrics are something of a mixed bag but generally support that sentiment. His 5.06 FIP is well below par, but much of that has to do with an inflated home run rate. Yarbrough allowed 13 homers in just 64 innings of work despite an entirely manageable 6.9% barrel rate that was largely in line with his career norms. Yarbrough’s work in New York actually tied a career high (20.8%) for strikeout rate and saw him limit walks to a decent 7.2% clip. His 4.14 SIERA clocks in right around league average, as does his 4.30 xFIP.

While the specifics of the contract aren’t yet clear, re-upping for another year certainly seems to make sense for both sides. Signing this early in the offseason offers Yarbrough a level of certainty he wasn’t afforded last year while allowing the Yankees to build some depth into their rotation mix that will surely prove valuable headed into 2026. While the Yankees have a deep group of starting options with Gerrit Cole expected back from Tommy John surgery early next year plus Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Luis Gil, Will Warren and Cam Schlittler, it’s not hard to see why the team could use some additional depth.

Cole and Rodon both won’t be ready for Opening Day, while Clarke Schmidt is unlikely to be a factor until late in the year after his own Tommy John surgery. Gil appears to be healthy but has a lengthy injury history that could make relying on him for 30 starts a tall order as well. With so much uncertainty among that group, the addition of Yarbrough offers a steady veteran to offer roughly average production when filling those gaps. Yarbrough is more than comfortable bouncing between the rotation and bullpen after doing so throughout virtually his entire career, and having him available as a long relief arm could be valuable for a bullpen that figures to be searching for innings help after losing Devin Williams and Luke Weaver.

Whatever the cost of Yarbrough’s contract ends up being, it should serve as no impediment to the Yankees as they look to fill out the rest of their roster. The club has its work cut out for it this winter, as they’ll need to replace Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, Paul Goldschmidt, and Amed Rosario (along with Williams and Weaver) as they head into free agency on top of whatever other upgrades the club is interested in making to its roster. Given Schmidt’s injury, perhaps even the addition of another starter could be on the table if the team wants to have young pitching to dangle in trade talks or have the luxury of being patient with Cole as he gets his elbow ready for game action next year.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported Yarbrough and the Yankees were closing in on a major league deal. Joel Sherman of The New York Post had the $2.5MM guarantee and $250K in bonuses. The Associated Press reported the bonus details.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Imagn Images.

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