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Latest On Corbin Burnes

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Right-hander Corbin Burnes entered the offseason as the consensus top rotation option available in free agency, but following last night’s reported agreement between the Yankees and Max Fried he now stands as the only ace-level pitcher available on the open market this winter. That should put Burnes in strong position to exceed MLBTR’s seven-year, $200MM prediction for the righty. While Boston reportedly put together a formal offer for Corbin Burnes yesterday, a separate report from Mark Feinsand of MLB.com characterized the Blue Jays and Giants as the “most aggressive” teams in their pursuit of Burnes and went on to suggest that the Red Sox “appear hesitant” to spend at the level necessary to land the righty.

Toronto, who Feinsand notes is considered the “favorite” to land Burnes, have been involved on a number of top free agents this winter and made their first major moves of the winter yesterday by agreeing to terms with right-hander Yimi Garcia and trading infielder Spencer Horwitz and outfield prospect Nick Mitchell to land infielder Andres Gimenez and righty Nick Sandlin from the Guardians. While those moves have helped to address the club’s bullpen after they non-tendered Jordan Romano last month and bolster their infield mix, one area of the roster that has not yet been addressed is the rotation.

The Jays dealt lefty Yusei Kikuchi away at the trade deadline, face Chris Bassitt departing in free agency next winter, and saw Kevin Gausman take a step back last year as he enters his mid-30s. Given those realities, it’s hardly a surprise that the club would hope to add a top-of-the-rotation arm to its mix. For a club that’s been involved in top free agents ranging from Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto last winter to Juan Soto and Max Fried this year, it’s hardly a surprise that they’re being aggressive on Burnes with the other top-of-the-market players rapidly coming off the board.

As for the Giants, the club has a clear hole at the front of their rotation after southpaw Blake Snell departed for their archrival Dodgers in free agency last month. Much like the Blue Jays, San Francisco has been deeply involved in the upper levels of free agency in the past several years. While most of that occurred under former president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, Buster Posey kicked his tenure as head decision-maker for the Giants off with a bang over the weekend when he signed shortstop Willy Adames to a seven-year deal. While supplementing their young core with a top-flight starter alongside their twin investments in Adames and Matt Chapman would make plenty of sense, rumors percolated last month that the club could look to scale back payroll this winter, and it’s difficult to imagine them being able to achieve that goal while also bringing Burnes into the fold. Given that reality, it’s perhaps no surprise that sources told Feinsand they were “skeptical” of San Francisco’s odds of outbidding Toronto if the Jays are determined in their pursuit of Burnes.

Perhaps the most interesting piece of Feinsand’s report, however, is the apparent pessimism regarding the Red Sox as a suitor for Burnes. Boston brass haven’t been shy about their plans to be aggressive this winter, particular in pursuit of front-of-the-rotation arms. With Fried and Snell now off the market, Burnes is the last clearly ace-level pitcher available in free agency this winter. Feinsand suggests that the Red Sox could pursue a reunion with right-hander Nick Pivetta in free agency if they miss out on Burnes, though Pivetta’s 4.29 ERA in parts of five seasons with the Red Sox is hardly a front-of-the-rotation level resume.

Other possible solutions Feinsand discussed are right-hander Walker Buehler, whom the Red Sox were previously reported to have interest in, as well as trade market options like White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet. The trade market also seems to be a potential fallback plan for the incumbent Orioles if they miss out on reuniting with Burnes. A report from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi earlier today described Baltimore’s hopes of re-signing the star righty as fading and noted that the Orioles have interest in Padres right-hander Dylan Cease in the event that Burnes ultimately lands elsewhere. Cease is not currently seen as likely to move, but the Padres are reportedly exploring his market with the Red Sox also known to be among his potential suitors. Turning back to Boston, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reported that the Red Sox “seem confident” about their ability to land a top pitcher this winter, although that could mean trading for a player like Crochet or Cease rather than signing Burnes.

Latest On Kyle Tucker’s Trade Candidacy

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11:15am: Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome of The Athletic confirmed Houston’s interest in Smith, Paredes, and Gil in a report this morning while also noting that the Astros have interest in Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki. Suzuki is a trade candidate in his own right but club brass has downplayed their interest in moving him. That disinclination to part with Suzuki is confirmed by the report from Rosenthal and Rome, who note the Cubs are “highly unlikely” to move him.

10:03am: On the heels of Astros GM Dana Brown acknowledging earlier this week that the club isn’t ruling out a trade of either Kyle Tucker with free agency looming next winter, Joel Sherman of the New York Post described the Yankees as among the teams “most seriously” pursuing the outfielder. Sherman adds that the Cubs are viewed as a “strong player” in Tucker’s market as well, however, while the Giants are also involved. The Phillies have “at least inquired” on Tucker previously, per Sherman, but while they tried to put together a package for the outfielder it’s unclear whether or not they remain involved in his market.

Buzz surrounding the possibility of a Tucker trade has increased in the days since Juan Soto signed his record-breaking deal with the Mets, and as the Yankees turn towards their contingency plans for if they failed to reunite with Soto it’s hardly a surprise that they would be involved in talks regarding another star right fielder. Both New York and Chicago’s interest in Tucker’s services has been previously reported, but Sherman’s report notably suggests that the Astros are prioritizing big-league ready corner infield and starting rotation help in trade talks surrounding Tucker. While the Yankees themselves are lacking in corner infield talent, the club reached an agreement with lefty Max Fried yesterday to create a surplus in their rotation, and Sherman adds the Astros are said to be “very interested” in reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil.

The Cubs, by contrast, are flush in the sort of young talent that the Astros seem to be prioritizing. Top infield prospect Matt Shaw is primarily a second baseman by trade but spent the majority of the 2024 season at third base. Sherman notes that Shaw is joined by 2024 first-round Cam Smith and incumbent third baseman Isaac Paredes are “attractive” to the Astros as they run the risk of losing longtime third baseman Alex Bregman in free agency. While not noted in Sherman’s report, it’s also worth noting that Chicago has a number of young pitchers who they could theoretically make available including Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, and Hayden Wesneski.

As for the other teams mentioned in Sherman’s report, both clubs have at least theoretical fits for Houston’s reported ask as well. The Giants have former top prospect Marco Luciano and power-hitting utility man Tyler Fitzgerald as pieces who may be attractive to the Astros as third base options, while right-handers Hayden Birdsong and Mason Black are among the club’s more interesting young pitchers who could be made available. It’s unclear whether any of those names have been discussed or to what level Houston would be interested in them, but San Francisco sports a deep group of young options in both areas. The infielders figure to be particularly available following the club landing Willy Adames in free agency, and the same could be said of the rotation pieces if they’re successful in their reported pursuit of Corbin Burnes.

The Phillies, meanwhile, are known to be making third Alec Bohm available in trade but may be an imperfect fit for the Astros needs. The infielder has just two years of team control remaining, and two years of a solid but unspectacular third baseman seems unlikely to land one year of a star player like Tucker. It’s possible the Phillies could supplement a package including Bohm with starting pitching, but it would be a shock if the club was willing to part ways with top prospect Andrew Painter and other options like Mick Abel and Seth Johnson are likely far less inspiring to the Astros.

The Opener: Rule 5 Draft, Yankees, Rangers

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As the Winter Meetings enters its final stretch today, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. 2024 Rule 5 Draft:

Baseball’s annual Rule 5 Draft is scheduled to take place at 1pm CT this afternoon. International players and high school draft picks who signed in 2019 and college draft picks signed in 2020 who have not yet been added to their club’s 40-man roster are vulnerable in today’s draft, where any club can select them for a $100K fee. If the player does not stick on their new club’s 26-man roster for the entire season, he must be offered back to his original club for $50K. Teams must have open space on their 40-man roster to select a player in the draft, meaning the Tigers and Red Sox would each need to clear space on their 40-man roster before the draft begins in order to participate.

Players selected in the Rule 5 draft occasionally go on to impact their team in the future, as free agent outfielder Anthony Santander famously did following his selection in the 2016 Rule 5 Draft. Red Sox right-hander Justin Slaten, A’s right-hander Mitch Spence, and Padres right-hander Stephen Kolek are among last year’s picks who remained with their new organization through the entire 2024 season, with Slaten in particular featuring prominently in Boston’s late-inning mix. Will a similarly valuable diamond in the rough be unearthed today?

2. Yankees pivot away from Soto:

The Yankees started their pivot away from Juan Soto yesterday in a big way when they agreed to an eight-year deal with left-hander Max Fried. The deal is the largest in MLB history for a left-handed starting pitcher, and every indication is that the hot stove will stay active in the Bronx going forward. The club has been connected to first baseman Christian Walker, third baseman Alex Bregman, and outfielder Teoscar Hernandez among others in free agency, while potential trade candidates include White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet, Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker, and Cubs first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger. The club’s reported interest in Crochet came before they landed Fried, but each of those hitters still seems to be a reasonably possible target for the Yankees as they look to rebuild their lineup without Soto.

3. What’s next for the Rangers?

The Rangers checked the biggest box of their offseason yesterday by agreeing to a deal that would bring right-hander Nathan Eovaldi back into the fold. That wasn’t the club’s only move last night, either, as they followed it up by acquiring infielder Jake Burger from the Marlins for a package of three prospects. With limited payroll space available as the club seeks to duck under the luxury tax this winter, could the acquisition of Burger prompt Texas to deal a hitter such as first baseman Nathaniel Lowe in order to free up additional dollars for pitching help? Barring to clear payroll, Chris Young’s front office will need to get creative in order to rebuild a bullpen that’s lost Jose Leclerc, David Robertson, and Kirby Yates to free agency while also adding additional starting depth.

Padres “Exploring” Dylan Cease’s Trade Market

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As the Padres face payroll constraints amid an offseason where starting pitching has been at a premium, the possibility of San Diego fielding interest on right-hander Dylan Cease emerged earlier today with Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune suggesting that the club is anywhere from actively “trying to unload” the right-hander to merely “open to offers” on him. This evening, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin characterized the situation slightly differently, reporting that the club is “at least exploring” Cease’s trade value but also cautioning that San Diego “prefers” to keep Cease in the fold and a trade is not considered likely at this time.

The Padres have plenty of needs this winter, including help in the outfield, starting rotation, and behind the plate. Dealing Cease from a 2025 rotation where he projects to feature prominently alongside Yu Darvish and Michael King would be a substantial hit to an already thin rotation mix, of course, even with with Matt Waldron, Randy Vasquez, Adrian Morejon, Bryan Hoeing, and Stephen Kolek as potential back-end options available internally. It’s for that reason Lin reports the club would seek “multiple controllable players,” including “one or more” starting pitchers. If San Diego were unable to secure enough rotation help from a Cease trade, Lin adds, then they would likely look to flip those players to land other rotation pieces.

Given the club’s rotation needs, it may raise some eyebrows that the club could consider trading Cease even if they don’t receive controllable pitching in return. The logic behind that possibility, per Lin, stems in part from the club’s pessimism regarding their ability to keep Cease in San Diego long-term. While Lin notes the club still “harbors some hope” that they may be able to extend King before he reaches free agency next winter, they believe they have no such chance of being able to afford Cease following the 2025 campaign, when MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to make $13.7MM in his final trip through arbitration.

If Cease were to be traded for young talent, that $13.7MM could be re-invested into the roster and potentially used to a player in free agency, whether that be a mid-level starter like Jose Quintana or Kyle Gibson or help in the outfield, perhaps even in the form of a reunion with Jurickson Profar. Much as that salary relief could be a huge boon to the Padres, it’s not an especially cumbersome figure overall. For that reason, Lin suggests that Cease could find a much wider range of suitors on the trade market this winter than Juan Soto did when San Diego shopped him last year, even as Cease isn’t nearly as impactful as the league’s newly-minted $765MM man.

At least one suitor for Cease’s services has already been named, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported earlier today that the Red Sox are among the teams with interest in Dylan Cease. Boston has long been known to be targeting help at the top of their rotation, and after the club fell short in the pursuit of southpaw Max Fried today their interest in working out a deal to acquire Cease has surely only grown. The Red Sox currently seem focused on courting right-hander Corbin Burnes as they search for top-of-the-rotation help, but the possibility of the club looking to add two front-end starters this winter has been bandied about at times throughout the offseason so even landing a player of that caliber wouldn’t necessarily preclude a deal from taking place.

The Red Sox have a tantalizing cachet of top prospects in their system, though the likes of Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell are generally considered to be untouchable in trade discussions. Catcher Kyle Teel, outfielder Wilyer Abreu, or perhaps even right-hander Garrett Whitlock would be perfect fits San Diego’s needs, though it’s unclear if the Red Sox would be willing to part ways with any of those players in a deal for a rental piece like Cease. While Abreu in particular has been floated frequently as a potential trade candidate this winter, those rumors have typically tended to frame Abreu as the headliner for a package that would land a controllable piece like White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet rather than for a rental arm like Cease.

Latest On Seiya Suzuki’s Trade Candidacy

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While the overwhelming majority of the focus on the Cubs’ outfield mix this winter has been on the trade candidacy of Cody Bellinger, teammate Seiya Suzuki has emerged as an intriguing trade candidate in his own right in recent weeks. Previous reporting has described the club as “determined” to move one of the two outfielders, and today Suzuki’s agent Joel Wolfe offered notable insight on the possibility of his client getting dealt, as relayed by ESPN’s Jesse Rogers.

Wolfe told reporters (including Rogers) this afternoon that Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer approached him last night about which teams are interested in Suzuki’s services. Notably, Suzuki has a full no-trade clause, meaning that he and Wolfe are free to reject any trade proposal involving the outfielder. Wolfe suggested that while Suzuki is theoretically open to a trade, he added that “it’s a pretty small universe” in terms of teams he would be willing to entertain being moved to.

In addition to confirming that there are teams at least inquiring on Suzuki’s availability, Wolfe’s comments also revealed one potential motivation for Suzuki to entertain trade offers: his desire to play the outfield on a regular basis. Following the emergence of top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong as the club’s everyday center fielder last summer, Suzuki found himself parked at DH on a regular basis once the club’s outfield mix was fully health and Bellinger cemented himself as the club’s regular right fielder. That’s a situation he was evidently displeased with, as Wolfe suggested that Suzuki likely “would not have signed with a team” who pitched being their everyday DH to him in free agency.

That potential source of discord between player and team shines a new light on the Cubs’ efforts to trade either Suzuki or Bellinger this winter. With Ian Happ locked in as the club’s left fielder and Crow-Armstrong having cemented himself in center, it’s undeniable that the club’s best defensive alignment with their current group of players involves Bellinger in right field with Suzuki at DH. Suzuki was well-regarded defensively for his work in the outfield during his NPB days but has oscillated between average and below average throughout his three seasons in the big leagues according to defensive metrics. His -3 Outs Above Average last year ranked 33rd among 42 qualified right fielders. While Bellinger did not get enough reps to qualify, he’s earned +2 Outs Above Average for his work across all three outfield spots in two seasons with the Cubs and is generally regarded as a plus defender in an outfield corner.

Of course, that’s not to say the Cubs would necessarily prefer to trade Suzuki. Indeed, the club’s apparent aggressiveness in shopping Bellinger suggests just the opposite, and it’s not hard to see why. For one things, Bellinger’s $27.5MM salary in 2025 eclipses the $19MM Suzuki is owed this year, and Bellinger’s player option for 2026 offers Chicago less certainty moving forward than Suzuki’s guaranteed contract. What’s more, Suzuki is a better hitter and perhaps even the best hitter on the team. The 29-year-old’s .283/.366/.482 (138 wRC+) slash line this year dwarfs Bellinger’s own line of .266/.325/.426 (109 wRC+), and Suzuki has long been a statcast darling who hits the ball hard and takes his walks compared to Bellinger’s low exit velocities and contact-oriented approach.

To that end, Cubs GM Carter Hawkins spoke to reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) this afternoon and downplayed the likelihood of a trade.

“We don’t want to trade Seiya,” Hawkins said, as relayed by Montemurro. “but, look, as [Wolfe] talked about there’s people interested in great players and so if teams come asking those are at least conversations that we’re willing to have, but I really don’t think much is going to come of it.“

Hawkins’s comments lend further credence to previous reporting regarding Suzuki’s availability that suggested while the Cubs were willing to entertain offers for the slugger, a deal was only likely to come together if Chicago was unable to trade Bellinger. To this point, Bellinger has received reported interest from the Yankees, Mariners, Astros, and Diamondbacks at the very least, suggesting that a Bellinger trade remains the more likely outcome unless the market for his services falls apart in the coming days and weeks.

Tigers Designate Akil Baddoo For Assignment

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The Tigers formally announced their previously reported signing of right-hander Alex Cobb this evening. In a corresponding move, outfielder Akil Baddoo was designated for assignment as noted by MLive’s Evan Woodbery.

Baddoo, 26, was a second-round pick by the Twins back in 2016. The outfielder’s major league career wouldn’t begin until 2021, after he was selected by the Tigers in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft. That first taste of big league action went remarkably well for the youngster, as he slashed an impressive .259/.330/.436 with a 108 wRC+ in 124 games for Detroit while splitting time between left field and center. Baddoo’s 26.5% strikeout rate was somewhat elevated, but he made up for it by walking at a healthy 9.8% clip and clubbing 13 homers, seven triples, and 20 doubles while swiping 18 bases during his rookie season.

That combination of power and speed was tantalizing enough that the Tigers stuck with Baddoo on a part-time basis despite lackluster numbers at the plate. Between the 2022 and ’23 season, he hit just .212/.302/.331 (80 wRC+) in 582 combined trips to the plate. While he went a decent 23-for-32 on the bases in those years, his power evaporated as he posted a combined isolated slugging percentage of just .119, down from the solid .177 figure of his rookie campaign. That downturn in performance in conjunction with the emergence of exciting outfield options like Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter from the Detroit farm system left Baddoo with fewer and fewer big league opportunities as his time in the organization continued.

That dwindling playing time in Detroit came to a head in 2024, as after a winter that saw the Tigers add Mark Canha to the lineup and a phenomenal Spring Training performance from Wenceel Perez, Baddoo found himself as the odd man out on Opening Day. Baddoo was optioned to the minors and ended up spending the overwhelming majority of his 2024 campaign at Triple-A. He made just 82 trips to the plate in the big leagues this past year and struggled badly in that limited time with a .137/.220/.301 slash line and a 32.9% strikeout rate. The Tigers kept him on the roster through last month’s non-tender deadline despite Baddoo being projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $1.6MM salary in his second trip through arbitration, but he’s now lost his 40-man roster spot with the club nonetheless.

Looking ahead, any club in the league will now have the opportunity to claim Baddoo off waivers if the Tigers don’t work out a trade for him within the next few days. The 26-year-old’s combination of youth and past big league success could make him an intriguing option for outfield-needy clubs, although his recent struggles and arbitration-level price tag could turn some potential suitors away.

Giants Sign Willy Adames

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The Giants officially have their new shortstop. San Francisco finalized their seven-year, $182MM contract with Willy Adames this afternoon. The CAA client will be introduced at Oracle Park on Thursday. The deal, which is the largest in Giants history, reportedly contains a $22MM signing bonus and a full no-trade clause. There is no deferred money on the contract. Adames will make $10MM in the first two seasons of the deal and $28MM in the final five.

Adames, 29, was the top shortstop available on the market this winter and goes to a team that has been candid about its desire to upgrade at the position this winter. They’ve now done so by bringing in one of the league’s steadiest players on both sides of the ball to handle the position.

Adames has been worth at least 3.1 fWAR and 3.0 bWAR in each of his five full, 162-game seasons in the majors thanks to that consistency. A career 109 wRC+ hitter who slashed a strong .251/.331/.462 (119 wRC+) with Milwaukee in 2024, the addition of Adames as a middle-of-the-order bat should help improve a Giants offense that managed just a 98 wRC+ last year.

While San Francisco’s 112 wRC+ at shortstop last year a strong figure, much of that production was thanks to multi-positional bat Tyler Fitzgerald, who took over the position down the stretch but was a lackluster defender with a -4 in Outs Above Average last year. Adames was only worth a +1 figure by OAA last year but posted excellent +16 and +10 figures in the metric in 2022 and ’23 and should be a major upgrade to the club’s defense who forms a dynamic tandem with third baseman Matt Chapman on the left side of the infield. That combination of above-average offense and defense at a premium position on the diamond was enough to make Adames the #5 ranked free agent on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list last month, where we predicted a six-year $160MM deal for the shortstop.

Adames managed to top that prediction by one year and $22MM, which isn’t necessarily a major shock given the thin infield market and Adames’s wide range of suitors. The Yankees, Phillies, Astros, Braves, Blue Jays, and Red Sox were all linked to Adames in recent weeks, and a handful of those suitors were seemingly drawn in by his willingness to move off of shortstop in order to facilitate a deal. That made him a particularly attractive option for clubs like the Yankees and Astros, for whom a potential position change made Adames an interesting “Plan B” option should they fail to re-sign incumbent sluggers Juan Soto and Alex Bregman given their apparent comfort with incumbent shortstop Anthony Volpe and Jeremy Pena.

Ultimately, however, Adames has landed with a club that figures to play him at shortstop on a daily basis. Fitzgerald, who slashed .280/.334/.497 (132 wRC+) in 96 games with the club last year, seems likely to be in line for the lion’s share of playing time at second base now that he’s been bumped off of shortstop but also has experience at first base and in the outfield that could theoretically lead to a multi-positional role if needed. With former top prospect Marco Luciano as well as youngsters like Heliot Ramos, Luis Matos, and Grant McCray likely to impact the club’s outfield mix next year alongside incumbents Jung Hoo Lee and Mike Yastrzemski, it’s not impossible to imagine the addition of Adames leaving the club more or less set on the positional side.

Even if San Francisco doesn’t make further additions to their hitting corps, questions remain about their plans for the remainder of the offseason. Reporting has previously indicated that the club plans to enter 2025 with a lower payroll than 2024, and RosterResource indicates that signing Adames has left the club with a projected payroll of $180MM for 2025. That’s $26MM below their final estimate for the 2024 season, which would be consistent with a reduction in payroll if the club didn’t make additional moves. The Giants have also featured prominently in the rumor mill for starting pitching this winter, however, and were connected to top free agent starter Corbin Burnes just last week.

Signing Burnes in addition to Adames would surely push their payroll to or even beyond 2024 levels, which would suggest either a reversal regarding their payroll plans or an intention to cut salary elsewhere, perhaps by trading a player such as Yastrzemski or first baseman LaMonte Wade Jr. It’s also worth noting that the Giants are forfeiting their second- and fifth-highest draft picks (as well as $1MM in international bonus pool money) in order to sign Adames. That could make the club hesitant to sign an additional qualified free agent like Burnes in order to preserve their remaining draft capital, or it’s possible that San Francisco could be emboldened to make another qualified signing because the draft penalty becomes relatively less-severe on additional signings. For example, signing Burnes would now cost the Giants only their second- and fifth-highest picks in next year’s draft after accounting for the picks forfeited to sign Adames, meaning they would actually be giving up what were actually their third- and seventh-highest selections in the draft at the start of the offseason.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Giants and Adames had agreed to a seven-year, $182MM deal that included a $22MM signing bonus. Susan Slusser of the Francisco Chronicle initially reported the sides were making progress. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the no-trade clause and the absence of deferrals. Slusser also first reported the specific annual breakdown.

Orioles Sign Tyler O’Neill

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December 10: The Orioles officially announced O’Neill’s signing this afternoon.

December 7: The Orioles are in agreement with outfielder Tyler O’Neill on a three-year, $49.5MM deal according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman adds that the Boras Corporation client’s contract comes with an opt-out opportunity following the 2025 season.

O’Neill, 30 in June, entered his walk year having just been shipped from the Cardinals to the Red Sox. While he had earned down-ballot MVP consideration with a fantastic 2021 season in St. Louis, back-to-back down seasons combined with a glut of viable outfield options left O’Neill as the odd man out with the club. He made the most of the situation and carved a regular role for himself in Boston this year, however.

While O’Neill struggled with his health between two trips to the injured list this past year, he performed at a high level when healthy enough to take the field. In 113 games for Boston, he slashed a strong .241/.336/.511 with a 131 wRC+. That production came with an unsightly 33.6% strikeout rate, though O’Neill made up for it somewhat with 31 homers and a 11.2% walk rate.

The outfielder is certainly not without warts. His high strikeout rate is at least somewhat concerning even when factoring in his power and high walk rate, and he also posted a massive platoon split last year. While he put up an incredible 215 wRC+ against left-handed pitching last year, same-handed pitchers held him to below average offense (91 wRC+) overall as he hit just .208/.290/.403 against them. O’Neill’s lengthy injury history is also something of a red flag that could hamper his value in the coming years. Even with those concerns, however, it’s easy to see O’Neill’s fit in Baltimore. The Orioles have a deep position player mix that can help to cover for O’Neill when he’s injured and perhaps even give him occasional days off against tough right-handed opponents.

Meanwhile, O’Neill’s phenomenal numbers against left-handed pitching could provide a massive boost to a heavily left-handed Orioles lineup. Orioles outfielders hit a decent .236/.302/.419 (106 wRC+) against left-handed pitching last year, but much of that production came from Anthony Santander’s 132 wRC+ against southpaws. Santander is now a free agent, leaving the club with the lefty-swinging Colton Cowser, Cedric Mullins, Heston Kjerstad, and perhaps Ryan O’Hearn in their projected outfield mix. All four of those players are left-handed hitters, and Cowser’s 89 wRC+ against lefties last year was the highest mark among the quartet. By adding O’Neill to the mix, the Orioles should be able to help balance an outfield that projected to be well below average against southpaws in 2025.

Notably, they’ve also done so at a far more affordable price tag than they likely would’ve if they simply re-signed Santander. While MLBTR’s #9 free agent on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list was predicted for a four-year, $80MM pact in free agency after slugging 44 homers for the Orioles this year, O’Neill ranked farther down the board at #19 with a projected deal of three years and $42MM. It’s a deal O’Neill managed to beat by a small amount in terms of total guarantee, and he managed to add additional value to his contract by affording himself the opportunity to opt out of the final two years of the deal next winter. If O’Neill manages to stay healthy and replicate his strong production from his time in Boston in 2025, it’s not hard to imagine him re-entering free agency in line for a much more lucrative deal next winter.

In the meantime, O’Neill will provide a veteran presence in a young and exciting Orioles lineup. Baltimore is known to be in the market for a catcher to back up Adley Rutschman at the position and push waiver wire addition Rene Pinto into a depth role, but O’Neill’s signing likely represents the heavy lifting in terms of the club’s offensive upgrades this winter. That doesn’t mean they’re done for the winter, however; the club has long been connected to the market for starting pitching as they look to either reunite with or replace ace hurler Corbin Burnes at the top of their rotation. Aside from that, the club figures to make bullpen additions who can help to replace hurlers Danny Coulombe and Jacob Webb, though the return of closer Felix Bautista from Tommy John surgery in the spring should provide a big boost to the relief corps already.

The club figures to still have resources available to make those additions even after adding O’Neill. RosterResource projects the Orioles for a $114MM payroll in 2025 with O’Neill in the fold. That would not only be a step above last year’s payroll but also the highest payroll the club has put forward since the 2018 season. Of course, the club’s new ownership group led by David Rubenstein has seemed far more open to spending in free agency that the Angelos family was in the final years of their ownership tenure, and the club has been candid about their increased payroll flexibility this winter. The club is likely further emboldened by just how clean their long-term books are: O’Neill’s contract is their first guaranteed money on the books for the 2026 season, with all other payroll commitments coming in the form of arbitration level or pre-arbitration level players.

Orioles Sign Gary Sanchez

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December 10: The Orioles officially announced Sanchez’s signing this afternoon.

December 7: The Orioles have agreed to a one-year deal with catcher Gary Sanchez, according to a report from Jon Heyman of The New York Post, who adds that the deal guarantees Sanchez $8.5MM. Sanchez is represented by MDR Sports Management.

Sanchez, who celebrated his 32nd birthday earlier this week, returns to the AL East after spending the first seven seasons of his MLB career with the Yankees. The first few years of his career saw him establish himself as one of the better offensive catchers in baseball with a .246/.328/.518 slash line in 327 games through the end of the 2019 season. In that time, he made two All-Star games and clobbered 105 home runs in 1576 plate appearances. That 30-to-35 homer power helped to make up for Sanchez’s middling defense behind the plate, but things took a turn for the worse when he started to struggle on offense. After striking out at a 24.1% clip through the end of the 2019 season, his 2020-22 seasons saw that rate tick up to 29.5%. Meanwhile, Sanchez’s home run power began to suffer as he hit just 49 homers in 294 games. This period even saw his defense drop from roughly average to nearly unplayable, including a -12 figure in Statcast’s catcher defense metric during the 2021 season.

These struggles led the Yankees to trade Sanchez to the Twins prior to the 2022 season, where he continued to struggle at the plate but managed to bounce back a bit on defense. Sanchez then entered free agency but did not find a deal before the 2022 season began. He eventually signed with the Mets during the season but lasted just three games on the club’s roster before spending the rest of the season in a Padres uniform. With San Diego, Sanchez managed to bounce back and flash some of the power he had shown during his Yankees days, slashing .218/.292/.500 with 19 homers in just 260 plate appearances and a 114 wRC+. That earned Sanchez a guranteed deal in Milwaukee this past season, where he served as a back up for William Contreras at catcher and occasionally found his way into the first base/DH mix as well.

Since leaving the Bronx, Sanchez has generally had the look of a solid if unspectacular catching option. In that time, he’s slashed .212/.291/.412 with a 96 wRC+ that’s more or less in line with his production for the Brewers last year, and he’s done so while providing the roughly average defense he offered early in is career. That’s enough to make him a quality back up catching option for virtually any team, and he’ll take over the role vacated by James McCann when he elected free agency last month as Adley Rutschman’s partner in the Orioles catching tandem. In addition to sharing catching duties, Sanchez can also serve a secondary role of helping improve the club’s offense against left-handed pitching by providing a righty-swinging alternative to Ryan O’Hearn at DH on days where he isn’t filling in for Rutschman behind the plate. That makes Sanchez the second player the club has added today who could provide a boost to their offense against southpaws, joining Tyler O’Neill who agreed to a three-year deal with the Orioles earlier today.

While the Orioles had internal options to serve as their secondary catcher behind Rutschman such as Rene Pinto and Blake Hunt, the club made clear in recent weeks that they hoped to add a more established player to that mix. That included a reported interest in reunion with James McCann, but reports seemed to indicate that McCann could look to find a multi-year deal in free agency while the Orioles were hoping to find a one-year arrangement given the presence of top catching prospect Samuel Basallo in their minor league system. To find a quality player willing to accept a one-year deal and a back-up job that won’t guarantee regular playing time, it seems as though Baltimore may have had to go over the top to land Sanchez; his one-year, $8.5MM guarantee matches the guarantee Danny Jansen landed from the Rays yesterday to serve as their regular starter behind the plate and far exceeds the $3MM guarantee he received from the Brewers last year.

That willingness to stretch financially in order to land the right fit for their roster is a luxury GM Mike Elias and his front office haven’t had in previous winters, when the Angelos family owned the team. New owner David Rubenstein has given the club the ability to expand payroll significantly, however, and the Orioles now project to open the 2025 season with a $122MM payroll according to RosterResource. It seems reasonable to expect that the club’s payroll could continue to climb from here as well, with Baltimore seemingly poised to turn their attention to the starting pitching market where they’ve been connected to Jack Flaherty and Nathan Eovaldi if they aren’t able to retain ace Corbin Burnes. As for the catching market, Sanchez joins Austin Hedges, Jacob Stallings, Kyle Higashioka, and Jansen in having already come off the board in what’s been the fastest-moving part of the positional market this winter. A few quality options remain available, however, including Carson Kelly and Elias Diaz.

Dodgers Sign Michael Conforto

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December 10: The Dodgers officially announced Conforto’s signing today.

December 8: The Dodgers signed a left-handed hitting outfielder represented by Scott Boras tonight.  No, not that one.  Shortly before the Mets signed Juan Soto to a seismic contract, the Dodgers agreed to a deal with Michael Conforto, per a report from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Conforto’s deal with L.A. is a one-year pact worth $17MM, according to ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez. Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times reports the deal includes deferred money and an $8.5MM signing bonus.

Conforto, 32 in March, was selected by the Mets tenth overall in the 2014 draft and emerged as an impact bat for the club early in his career. In his first six seasons as a big leaguer, Conforto slashed an incredible .259/.358/.484 with a wRC+ of 128. Conforto made an All-Star appearance, slugged 118 homers in 632 games, and established himself as one of the best young offensive players in the NL.

Unfortunately, however, Conforto was dogged by shoulder issues early in his career that came to a head following a down 2021 season (104 wRC+). Conforto declined the Qualifying Offer and entered free agency in line for a solid payday, but required surgery during the 2021-22 lockout and ultimately did not sign a contract for the 2022 season while he recuperated.

Despite missing the entire 2022 season, Conforto inked a strong two-year, $36MM deal with the Giants, one of eight contracts by former GM Farhan Zaidi that included an opt-out.  After posting a league average 99 wRC+ in his first year with the Giants, Conforto chose not to opt out of the $18MM he was owed for 2024.

Conforto improved to a 112 wRC+ in 2024, including a 137 surge over the season’s final two months.  He showed a reverse platoon split, beating up on lefties more so than righties.  He also managed a 133 wRC+ away from Oracle Park, a place known to suppress offense.

Over the two years Conforto has been a Giant, Oracle Park has been the second-worst park in baseball for offense, ahead of only T-Mobile Park in Seattle. Dodger Stadium, meanwhile, is right around league average as the 17th best park in the majors for offense.

While the Dodgers are surely hoping that Conforto unlocks something closer to the form he showed throughout his 20s in New York with them this year, even the 105 wRC+ he’s offered over the past three seasons would help to bolster the club’s lackluster outfield mix. Dodgers outfielders combined for a wRC+ of just 101 last year, a figure that is drastically improved by contributions from Teoscar Hernandez and Mookie Betts. Hernandez is currently a free agent, however, and while Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Dodgers remain in on him even after signing Conforto, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be in a Dodgers uniform in 2025. With Betts ticketed for an infield role next season, that left the Dodgers with a projected outfield of Tommy Edman, James Outman, and Andy Pages for next season. Pages’s 100 wRC+ led that trio in 2024, and even a relatively mediocre season for Conforto would be a massive upgrade over Outman’s ghastly 54 wRC+ in 53 games last year.

With the addition of Conforto, RosterResource projects the Dodgers for a $326MM payroll in 2025 that perfectly matches their 2024 payroll, though that projection does not factor in deferred money. Regardless, that’s not expected to prevent president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and his front office from spending this winter. Every indication has been that the Dodgers are willing and able to increase their payroll well beyond last year’s figure in order to land the right players, which is surely a relief for fans given the number of holes that remain on the roster. The Dodgers could use additional bullpen help even after reuniting with Blake Treinen earlier this evening, would benefit from either re-signing Hernandez or adding another bat to their lineup, and at minimum they appear likely to reunite with Clayton Kershaw to bolster their rotation even after landing Blake Snell last month.

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