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Trade Candidate: Brandon Lowe

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When Brandon Lowe was healthy in 2020 and ’21, he was arguably the best second baseman in baseball. The Rays slugger led primary second basemen in home runs, RBI, OPS, wRC+, and FanGraphs WAR over those two seasons. Unfortunately, he has missed significant time with various injuries in each of the three years since. When he takes the field, however, Lowe is still a highly productive player. He launched 21 homers in 107 games this past season while producing a 123 wRC+ and 2.2 fWAR. His .350 xwOBA ranked in the 85th percentile of major league hitters.

Earlier this month, Tampa Bay picked up a $10.5MM team option for Lowe’s services in 2025, rather than paying him a $1MM buyout and sending him off to free agency. The Rays might be notoriously close-fisted, but still, there was little doubt they’d exercise the option. A net $9.5MM is a bargain for a player like Lowe, even if he sits out a third of the season with injuries once again. That being said, a $10.5MM salary puts Lowe in a tie with Jeffrey Springs for the highest paycheck on the club next year. To put it another way, it’s approximately 12% of the team’s estimated payroll for 2025 (per RosterResource). Thus, it’s more than fair to wonder if the Rays would rather spread that money across multiple roster spots rather than give it all to one injury-prone player. In other words, it’s fair to wonder if Lowe will be wearing a new uniform by Opening Day next March.

Tampa Bay has a long track of trading veteran players once their salaries start to increase, even when the team is still planning to contend. As the Rays enter the 2024-25 offseason coming off their worst finish since 2017, and coming off a season in which they sold big at the trade deadline, it seems even more believable that they would consider trading Lowe. Furthermore, the Rays have multiple internal options who could replace Lowe in the lineup (even if they can’t necessarily replace his production). One of Junior Caminero or José Caballero could potentially slide over to second base, while Christopher Morel could slot in for Caminero at third base or Taylor Walls could replace Caballero at shortstop. Former top prospect Curtis Mead is another infielder to keep in mind.

Then again, the fact that the Rays didn’t trade Lowe at last year’s deadline could be an indication that they’d like to hold onto him for 2025. After all, they might be cheap, but they also love a good value play. If the Rays shop Lowe around and come to the conclusion that he is severely undervalued around the league, they might prefer to hold onto him.

Back in August, Rays hitting coach Chad Mottola told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, “I don’t think the industry and even our own fans understand the impact [Lowe] makes in our lineup.” If president of baseball operations Erik Neander shares that opinion, he might be hesitant to part with his All-Star second baseman. Neander recently expressed confidence in Lowe’s bat and glove, telling Topkin, that Lowe is “most valuable” as a second baseman but that the team could continue to give him some time at first base and DH next season to have his powerful bat in the lineup as often as possible.

It’s also worth mentioning that Lowe has another team option for 2026 (valued at $11.5MM with a $500K buyout), which means Tampa Bay could keep him around for the start of next season and still have the flexibility to trade him at a later date. What’s more, the Rays have numerous other trade candidates on the roster. Lowe isn’t the only player they can flip if they’re facing pressure to cut payroll in light of the damage to Tropicana Field or the team’s current lack of a broadcast deal.

First baseman Yandy Díaz and closer Pete Fairbanks are two of the top 10 players on MLBTR’s list of the top 35 trade candidates of the offseason. Díaz (no. 5) will be making $10MM next year, and he has a $12MM team option for the following season. His contract also includes a $1MM trade assignment bonus. Fairbanks (no. 7) is set to collect $3.67MM in 2025, and he has a $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout for 2026. One more name to keep in mind is Zack Littell. He doesn’t have the same star power as Díaz or even Fairbanks, but he has proven himself to be a capable mid-rotation starter over the last year and a half. He made just $1.85MM this past season, but he is projected to earn close to a $3MM raise in his final year of arbitration eligibility.

Another factor to consider is the market for second baseman this offseason, both in terms of free agents and trade candidates. Only two of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents are primary second basemen: Gleyber Torres (no. 20) and Hyeseong Kim (no. 26). One could easily imagine why teams would prefer Lowe over either of them, especially on such a team-friendly contract. However, things could get more complicated if any teams are seriously pursuing Alex Bregman (no. 3), Willy Adames (no. 5), or Ha-Seong Kim (no. 43) to play second base. Ha-Seong Kim was a primary second baseman as recently as 2023, while both Adames and Bregman have expressed a willingness to switch positions.

As for the trade market, second basemen who could be on the move include Luis Arraez (no. 17 on MLBTR’s top trade candidates list), Brendan Donovan (no. 20), and Nolan Gorman (no. 21). However, none of those players seem particularly likely to be dealt, and they all fill different niches than Lowe. Funnily enough, all four bat left-handed, but Lowe is the only one who offers proven, middle-of-the-order power against both left- and right-handed pitching.

So, do you think the Rays will hold onto Lowe this winter? Or will they have a new second baseman on Opening Day 2025? Have your say in the poll below!

(poll link for app users)

 

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Gosuke Katoh Retires, Joins Blue Jays Front Office

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After 10 years in affiliated ball and two seasons in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball league, infielder Gosuke Katoh is trading in his playing equipment for a gig behind the scenes. Days after announcing his retirement, Katoh revealed on his Instagram account that he has taken a job in the Blue Jays front office.

Katoh, 30, was born and raised in California, moving from the Bay Area to San Diego as a young child. The Yankees selected him out of high school in the second round of the 2013 draft, and he spent the next seven years working his way up the minor league ladder in their system. He elected minor league free agency after the 2019 campaign and proceeded to bounce between the Marlins, Padres, and Blue Jays organizations before finally getting the chance to make his major league debut. He made Toronto’s Opening Day roster in 2022, appearing in eight games before he was designated for assignment in early May. Across 11 plate appearances, he went 1-for-7 with three walks and a sacrifice bunt, scoring twice and striking out only once. The Mets claimed him off of waivers, and although they briefly recalled him from Triple-A for a handful of days, he never appeared in another big league game. New York DFA’d and outrighted him in June and released him at the end of the year.

Following the 2022 season, Katoh entered the NPB draft. (As a Japanese citizen, he had no choice but to be drafted before he could sign with an NPB club.) The Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters, his favorite team growing up, selected him in the third round, and he played for the Fighters in 2023 and ’24. Over those two years, he appeared in 90 games for the Fighters and another 64 with their minor league farm team in the Eastern League. Unfortunately, he had a particularly rough year at the plate this past season. Over 28 NPB games, he slashed .172/.238/.190 with one run, one RBI, and one extra-base hit.

Last Sunday, Katoh announced his retirement on Instagram, and yesterday, he revealed that he’ll be reuniting with the Blue Jays to take on an as-of-yet-unspecified role in the front office. The team has yet to confirm the news itself or provide any further details about Katoh’s role.

Reggie Jackson Steps Down From Astros Front Office Role

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After four seasons as a special advisor in the Astros front office, Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson is leaving the team. The 78-year-old baseball lifer reportedly wants to spend more time with his family in California. He also has other business ventures to focus on, including a car dealership and various endorsements. Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of the New York Post were the first to announce the news.

Jackson was thought to be a highly influential presence in Houston’s front office. Speaking with Heyman and Sherman on their podcast “The Show” earlier this year, he named himself, Craig Biggio, and Jeff Bagwell as three advisors who were “very much involved” in the team’s decision-making, along with general manager Dana Brown and owner Jim Crane. His specific duties with the Astros were never entirely clear, although Chandler Rome of The Athletic explains that he was “a fixture in spring training, on select trips and behind the batting cages at Minute Maid Park.” He also worked with two of the team’s charitable foundations. Jackson described himself to the New York Post as a “pseudo executive.”

Presumably, his advisory gig with the Astros was more fulfilling than the special advisor role he previously held in the Yankees organization. Although Jackson spent twice as many seasons with the Athletics, he is perhaps best remembered as a member of the Yankees. It was in New York that he earned the nickname “Mr. October,” and it is a Yankees cap atop his head on his Hall of Fame plaque. Soon after his playing career ended, he joined New York’s front office as an advisor, a role he held for close to 30 years. However, speaking about his job in the organization for the documentary Reggie, he expressed frustration with his lack of influence in the front office, saying it reached a point where he “really couldn’t get heard.” In contrast, he said that in Houston he was genuinely “part of the decision-making process” and added that he “couldn’t have landed in a better spot.”

While Jackson is stepping away from the game for now, he has not closed the book on his career in Major League Baseball. It’s not as if he’s already looking for a new job, but he stopped short of shutting down the possibility. He didn’t even rule out a potential return to the Yankees. “I still like being around the game,” he explained. “[But] I don’t want to be gone as much.”

Tigers To Give Kenta Maeda “Every Opportunity” To Earn Back Role In Rotation

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Kenta Maeda was the Tigers’ biggest signing of the 2023-24 offseason, but his tenure in Detroit got off to a disappointing start. Kicking off the first season of a two-year, $24MM deal, he gave up three long balls and six runs over 3 1/3 innings in his Tigers debut. It was more of the same across his first 16 starts: 65 2/3 innings, 15 home runs, and a 7.26 ERA. Detroit went 5-11 in those contests. While his 4.88 SIERA suggested he was due for some positive regression, it still put him among the bottom 10 pitchers (min. 60 IP) in the American League.

Thus, just before the All-Star break, the Tigers decided to move Maeda to the bullpen indefinitely – although not necessarily permanently. Indeed, he still took on a starter’s workload in several of his bullpen appearances, throwing at least 80 pitches out of the ’pen on four separate occasions. He also started the final game of the regular season after the Tigers had already clinched a Wild Card berth. Now, he’s back in the conversation for a role in the starting rotation in 2025.

President of baseball operations Scott Harris spoke to members of the media (including Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press) at the GM Meetings in San Antonio, where he made it clear that Maeda “will have every opportunity to earn a job” in the Tigers rotation this spring. The POBO acknowledged that Maeda’s pure stuff and pitchability were lacking early in the year but noted that the veteran looked much stronger in the summer months. “I thought he pitched pretty well down the stretch for us,” Harris explained.

Indeed, Maeda put up much better numbers out of the bullpen, pitching to a 3.86 ERA and 3.23 SIERA over 42 innings in July, August, and September. However, he struggled once again upon his return to the rotation for game 162, giving up five runs on five hits in 4 2/3 innings of work.

That final outing notwithstanding, it isn’t surprising the Tigers are giving Maeda another chance to earn a starting role. With a $10MM salary for 2025, he’s currently the highest-paid pitcher on the team. He also has a long track record of success as a starter, with a career 4.23 ERA and 3.91 FIP in 171 big league starts. What’s more, he was downright dominant in his last fully healthy season, putting up a 2.70 ERA and 2.92 SIERA in 2020 en route to a second-place finish for the AL Cy Young.

Admittedly, that was several years ago and a shortened season, but the point remains that Maeda has been a highly successful starting pitcher in the not-too-distant past. Finally, the Tigers don’t have any locks for the 2025 rotation beyond ace Tarik Skubal and promising young righty Reese Olson. Even if they make a couple of additions, there will be a battle for at least one spot in the rotation this spring.

Harris re-emphasized that the team “could have done a better job” preparing Maeda last winter as he transitioned from the Twins to the Tigers. To that point, the Tigers have designed a new program for the right-hander this offseason. As part of that program, Petzold suggests Maeda will be throwing more regularly throughout the coming months; last year, he only threw one bullpen session back home in Japan before returning stateside for spring training.

It’s far from a guarantee that Maeda will re-claim his job in the rotation. Even if he does, it’s no sure thing he’ll stay there all year long. He’s going to turn 37 next April, an age at which it would be fair to worry about his performance even if he weren’t an injury-prone pitcher coming off a career-worst season. And now that the Tigers have officially entered their window of contention, they can’t afford to give him as long of a leash as they might have in years past. If Maeda is going to be a key contributor for the Tigers next season, he’s going to have to earn it by looking more like his younger self and less like the starter he was in 2024.

The Opener: Platinum Gloves, Objection Deadline, Premier12

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Now that the GM Meetings have wrapped up, here are three things we’ll be watching around baseball this weekend:

1. Platinum Glove winners to be revealed:

The Gold Glove Award winners were announced last weekend, honoring the best defensive player in each league at each position. Later today, Rawlings will reveal the winner of the 2024 Platinum Glove Awards, which honor the top defensive player in each league, regardless of position. All 10 Gold Glove winners in each league are eligible for the Platinum Glove, which is determined by a fan vote. Voting was live from Sunday through Thursday night.

Two previous Platinum Glove winners are eligible again this year: Guardians second baseman Andrés Giménez and Giants third baseman Matt Chapman. Other strong contenders include Blue Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho, who won the Fielding Bible Defensive Player of the Year Award, and Giants catcher Patrick Bailey, who led the majors in Statcast’s Fielding Run Value.

2. MLB’s objection deadline in DSG bankruptcy case:

Diamond Sports Group must prove in bankruptcy court that it has a feasible plan of action to avoid liquidation in the future, and Major League Baseball has the right to object to that plan. According to Evan Drellich of The Athletic, MLB has until 2:00 pm CT this afternoon to file its formal objection. However, it’s worth keeping in mind that this deadline has already been pushed back several times.

The Braves, Cardinals, and Marlins reportedly have deals in place to continue broadcasting their games with Diamond if/when the company emerges from bankruptcy, while the Twins, Guardians, and Brewers will broadcast their games through MLB instead. The Rangers have not yet made alternate plans, but they have suggested they will not negotiate a new deal with Diamond. As Drellich points out, that leaves the broadcast situations for the Reds, Tigers, Royals, Angels, and Rays up in the air. ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez reports that DSG “remains in talks with at least some of those teams.”

3. WBSC Premier12 kicks off this weekend:

The Premier12 championship, organized by the World Baseball Softball Confederation, is set to kick off this Saturday. The action will begin with Panama vs. Netherlands, while Puerto Rico will take on the USA later that day. More matchups of the weekend include Venezuela vs. Mexico, Venezuela vs. Panama, Netherlands vs. the USA, and Mexico vs. Puerto Rico. The tournament, which features the 12 highest-ranked national baseball teams worldwide, runs from November 9 to 24. Games will be played in Mexico, Japan, and Taiwan.

Players on a 40-man roster are not eligible to participate in the Premier12, but there are several top-100 prospects on this year’s Team USA roster: Rays infielder Carson Williams, Cubs infielder Matt Shaw, Phillies outfielder Justin Crawford, Pirates infielder Termarr Johnson and Braves catcher Drake Baldwin. There are also a handful of free agents with MLB experience on this year’s roster, including Rich Hill and Dan Altavilla. The WBSC’s official web site has more info on the Premier12 event and full rosters for all the teams involved.

Alex Bregman Willing To Move To Second Base

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Earlier this month, Alex Bregman was awarded a Gold Glove for his defense at third base. He has been an All-Star, a Silver Slugger, and a World Series champion, but this was the first Gold Glove of his nine-year career. The honor was well deserved. According to Baseball Savant, Bregman set new career highs in Outs Above Average (OAA) and Fielding Run Value (FRV). The metrics at FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus agree he was the most valuable defensive third baseman in the American League. Yet, Bregman’s agent Scott Boras revealed at the GM meetings this week that multiple teams have asked about his client’s willingness to move to second base – and Boras confirmed that Bregman would indeed be willing to make the change (per Bob Nightengale of USA Today).

It’s not necessarily surprising that Bregman would be amenable to switching positions. Extra versatility will only make him more appealing as a free agent. The more suitors he can attract, the more money he can command. Similar reports came out this week about fellow top free agent Willy Adames, a talented shortstop who would be willing to move to second or third base on the right deal. Moreover, it’s not as if Bregman would be completely new to the keystone. He played a handful of games at second base in each of his first three MLB seasons. He also has plenty of experience at shortstop from college and his early professional years.

What is slightly more surprising is the fact that teams would be interested in Bregman playing second base in the first place. He’s a good enough hitter that his bat could play anywhere around the diamond, but he is an experienced third baseman coming off the best defensive season of his career. It’s hard to imagine his glove would be quite as valuable at a new position – nor would his bat necessarily play any better at second base. Historically, second base has been a weaker offensive position than third, but the gap has nearly disappeared over the last two years. From 2023-24, second basemen have produced a .308 wOBA. Third baseman have put up a .309 wOBA in that time. Finally, there is more competition on the free agent market at second base than third. Adames and Ha-Seong Kim can play both positions, but each has more big league experience at second. In addition, two of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents are primary second basemen: Gleyber Torres and Hyeseong Kim. Bregman is the only primary third baseman on our top 50 list.

On the other hand, Bregman has never had a good arm for a third baseman. What’s more, it’s quite possible he would have been a second baseman all along if it weren’t for Jose Altuve blocking the position in Houston. Considering Bregman’s arm looked weaker than usual in 2024 (and that he just had surgery on his throwing elbow), perhaps some of his suitors think he’ll be a better defender at second base in the long run. Alternatively, they might just be hedging their bets in case his elbow problems linger into next season.

Regardless, Bregman continues to be most strongly linked to Houston this offseason. GM Dana Brown told reporters (including Jon Heyman of the New York Post) at the GM Meetings that he thinks the Astros have “a really good chance” of re-signing their homegrown star. In that case, there is no doubt he would resume his duties at the hot corner in 2025. Altuve is coming off another All-Star season at second, and the face of the Astros franchise is under contract for another five years and $125 million.

Blue Jays Believed To Have Gotten Under Luxury Tax Threshold

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According to a report from Shi Davidi of Sportsnet, the Blue Jays are thought to have gotten their 2024 player payroll below the first competitive balance tax threshold of $237MM. However, that will not be confirmed until later this offseason when the commissioner’s office calculates each team’s final payroll and formally announces which clubs will have to pay luxury tax penalties for the 2024 season.

The Blue Jays came into the season with a luxury tax payroll approximately $11MM above the first threshold, but they shaved some money off the books by trading several players ahead of the deadline. It’s also worth keeping in mind that publicly available payroll estimates are exactly that – estimates.

According to the estimates at RosterResource, 10 teams (including the Blue Jays) are in line to pay the luxury tax this January. The Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, Braves, Phillies, Astros, Giants, and Rangers are certain to be penalized, while the Blue Jays and Cubs are close enough that they could potentially slip under the $237MM threshold in the final calculations. RosterResource has Toronto’s final 2024 luxury tax payroll at $240.4MM and Chicago’s at $238.4MM. While neither the Blue Jays nor the Cubs would have to pay a particularly high penalty for their modest overages (if they do in fact go over), the Blue Jays, in particular, could benefit from resetting their penalties. They paid the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history last season. Luxury tax penalties increase when a team goes over the first threshold for a second consecutive season and increase again when a team goes over for a third consecutive season. Unless the Blue Jays are confidently planning to decrease payroll this winter, it would make a big difference if they could reset their penalties this year. After all, a 30% tax on a few million dollars in overages wouldn’t be that big of a deal for Toronto, but the potential for a 50% tax (the penalty for a third-time offender) next year and beyond could significantly hamper offseason spending.

What’s more, if the Blue Jays get under the luxury tax threshold, they would only lose their second-highest draft pick (and not their second and fifth-highest picks) if they sign a free agent who received the qualifying offer this winter. Similarly, they would only lose $500K of international bonus pool money rather than $1MM. Perennial high-spenders, like the World Series champion Dodgers, understand that it’s worth losing a few draft picks and some international bonus pool money in order to sign the best major league players and field the most competitive major league team. However, one can understand why the Blue Jays, who finished 74-88 in 2024 and would likely only be a few million over the luxury tax threshold (if they went over at all), would prefer not to be so harshly penalized.

There is no reason to believe the Blue Jays are entering a rebuilding or retooling phase after their disappointing 2024 season. Instead, it seems more likely they will try to contend once again in their final season of team control over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. As they attempt to do so, it would certainly help if they don’t have to be quite so concerned about signing a QO free agent or bringing next year’s payroll above the first luxury tax threshold ($241MM in 2025). Davidi notes that team president Mark Shapiro doesn’t see the team’s payroll “either growing or decreasing in a big way,” but that still leaves for the team to sign at least one QO free agent and possibly eclipse the first tier of the CBT. RosterResource estimates that Toronto’s luxury tax payroll for 2025 is currently $211.2MM, approximately $29.2MM lower than this past year’s estimated total.

Cardinals Re-Sign Chance Sisco To Minor League Contract

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The Cardinals have re-signed catcher Chance Sisco to a minor league contract for the 2025 season. The team revealed the news via the Cardinals Player Development account on X.

Sisco, who will turn 30 in February, is a veteran of five big league seasons, although he has not played in the majors since 2021. Selected by the Orioles in the second round of the 2013 draft, he rose through the system over the next four years, hitting well at every step along the way. By the time the 2017 season rolled around, he was Baltimore’s top-ranked prospect according to Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, ESPN, and FanGraphs. Unfortunately, Sisco was never able to put things together at the highest level. Over 196 MLB games from 2017-21, he slashed .197/.317/.337, good for an 82 wRC+. Those numbers just weren’t strong enough for a catcher who also produced below-average blocking, throwing, and framing metrics.

The Orioles designated Sisco for assignment in June 2021, and the Mets put in a claim. However, he appeared in just five games for the Mets down the stretch before they, too, DFA’d him in September. He then bounced between the Mariners and Twins minor league systems, the Acereros de Monclova of the Mexican League, and the Long Island Ducks of the Atlantic League before signing a minor league deal with the Cardinals this past August. Evidently, the Cardinals liked what they saw from Sisco in the Atlantic League (.274/.416/.609 slash line) enough to bring him into the organization, and they liked what they saw during his brief stint with the Triple-A Memphis Redbirds to bring him back for the 2025 campaign. Over seven games with Memphis, the backstop went 5-for-23 with one home run, one walk, and two hit-by-pitches.

In further Cardinals news, the team confirmed that they have signed a new minor league deal with Packy Naughton, news the left-hander first announced himself over Instagram. St. Louis also announced the re-signing of nine additional minor leaguers to new contracts for 2025: right-handed pitchers Augusto Calderon, Angel Cuenca, Inohan Paniagua, Dionys Rodríguez, Victor Santos, and Leonardo Taveras; catcher Gavin Collins; infielder Ramon Mendoza; and second baseman and outfielder Darlin Moquete.

Giants To Name Zack Minasian General Manager

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The Giants are planning to name Zack Minasian their new general manager on Friday, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. He will work under new president of baseball operations Buster Posey.

Minasian, the brother of Angels GM Perry Minasian, has been the Giants’ vice president of professional scouting since 2022 and a member of the front office since 2019.

Prior to coming to the Giants, Minasian spent 14 years working with the Brewers. He held various titles in that time, mostly in the scouting realm, before getting plucked out of Milwaukee and landing in San Francisco.

The Giants are undergoing a significant front office overhaul. Posey was tapped to replace Farhan Zaidi last month. Amid reporting on that change, it was also noted that general manager Pete Putila would be given a new role and replaced with a new GM.

Various names were floated as candidates, including Athletics assistant GM Billy Owens, Giants assistant GM Jeremy Shelley, Astros special advisor De Jon Watson and others, but the Giants will promote from within by giving Minasian the gig.

Presumably, Posey and Minasian already have some familiarity with each other. Posey was on the field for the Giants as recently as 2021 and later moved into a new role, buying a minority ownership stake and getting a seat on the club’s board of directors.

Regardless of whatever pre-existing relationship they had, their future partnership figures to be important for the franchise. Most baseball decision makers come from a background in scouting or analytics and are already familiar with the day-to-day role of running a baseball club. But Posey’s path is fairly unusual so he might be leaning on his second-in-command a bit more than other front office leaders, at least until he learns the ropes.

Lucas Giolito Exercises Player Option For 2025

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Red Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito has exercised his $19MM player option for the 2025 season, the team announced. There was little doubt that Giolito would pick up the option after he missed the entire 2024 season due to elbow surgery.

Last winter, Giolito was Boston’s big winter signing. It was a two-year deal with a $38.5MM guarantee, with the righty having the ability to opt-out after the first season.

He had a down year in 2023 and was surely hoping for a bounceback in 2024, which could allow him to return to the open market with more earning power. Unfortunately, he was diagnosed with a partial tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow during spring training, as well as a flexor strain, ultimately undergoing internal brace surgery.

After missing the entire 2024 campaign, there was little drama about this decision. Rather than return to free agency, he’ll lock in his $19MM player option and be a part of Boston’s rotation mix for 2025. He might not be ready by Opening Day but should get back on the mound at some point.

The Sox are now losing Nick Pivetta to free agency, leaving them with a rotation core of Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford. They also have guys like Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell, Quinn Priester and others for the back end. They will likely pursue offseason upgrades but Giolito will be a midseason addition at some point. As will Garrett Whitlock and Chris Murphy, who also underwent elbow surgery early in the ’24 season.

When Giolito returns will be of importance for him and the club, as his deal with the Sox also includes a option for 2026. If he throws fewer than 140 innings in 2025, it’s a $14MM club option. But if he gets over that threshold, it’s a $19MM mutual option. Either way, the buyout is $1.5MM.

If Giolito has a strong bounceback, he will want to get over that line and return to free agency, but he’ll need to stay fairly healthy after his current rehab is over. If he has a decent season but falls shy of the line, he could be a relatively cheap rotation option for the Sox in ’26.

Giolito allowed a massive 41 home runs in 2024, bumping his ERA up to 4.88 even though his 25.7% strikeout rate was still strong and his 9.2% walk rate close to average. From 2019 to 2023, he had a 4.11 ERA, 28.3% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate in almost 800 innings.

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