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Poll: Should The Braves Extend Spencer Schwellenbach?

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He has only made two starts this season, but it’s impossible not to be impressed. Spencer Schwellenbach has thrown 14 innings without giving up a run. Indeed, he hasn’t thrown so much as a single pitch with a runner in scoring position. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 14 to one. His groundball rate is 60%. He has allowed 30 batted balls and not one of them has been barreled. According to Baseball Savant, the righty has thrown six distinct pitches at least 10% of the time, and five of them have a positive run value. All told, his +9 pitching run value is the best in the sport. Two starts make for a tiny sample size, but like I said, it’s impossible not to be impressed by what Schwellenbach has done.

Of course, the 24-year-old is used to being impressive. Before the 2025 season began, he was mowing down opponents in the Grapefruit League, striking out 28 batters in 21 innings while pitching to a 3.00 ERA. Before that, he was a breakout stud in his rookie season, putting up a 3.35 ERA, 3.42 SIERA, and 2.6 FanGraphs WAR over 21 starts. Before that, he was a consensus top-five prospect in Atlanta’s system. Across 24 minor league starts at Single-A, High-A, and Double-A from 2023-24, he threw 110 innings with a 2.21 ERA and 3.01 FIP. He skipped Triple-A to make his big league debut last May and never looked back.

With less than one season of service time under his belt, Schwellenbach already finds himself a key member of the Braves’ rotation. Spencer Strider is still working his way back from elbow surgery. Reynaldo López will miss most of the season. Chris Sale remains the ace of the staff, but he’s 36 years old, injury-prone, and has looked unusually mortal to start the year. It remains unclear how much Atlanta will be able to count on top prospects AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep, former All-Star Bryce Elder, and 2024 breakout arm Grant Holmes. Having Schwellenbach to rely on every fifth game will be critical as the Braves look to make up ground in the NL East following a 2-8 start to the season.

As Schwellenbach continues to impress – and as Atlanta continues to be reminded of the importance of reliable, top-end starting pitching – perhaps it’s time for president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos to start thinking about extending the right-hander. It might seem early to be talking about an extension for Schwellenbach. Then again, the Braves extended Strider shortly after his rookie season in 2022. At that time, he had 20 big league starts and 134 innings under his belt. Schwellenbach doesn’t have quite as much MLB service time as Strider did when he signed his extension, but he has now thrown more innings (137 2/3). Meanwhile, Michael Harris II was just 71 games into his big league career when he signed an extension with Atlanta in August 2022. As a position player, Harris is not quite as strong of a comp for Schwellenbach. Regardless, the key point is that this front office doesn’t have any qualms about extending players with limited big league service time. In fact, that’s part of the appeal for the Braves, who also extended Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies quite early on in their careers. The point of these extensions is to offer talented young players immediate financial security in exchange for additional years of team control down the line. If Schwellenbach keeps pitching this way, his asking price is only going to climb, and the chances that he would be willing to give up any of his future free agent years will diminish.

With that said, the Braves have awarded far fewer long-term extensions to pitchers than to position players. For instance, they notably did not extend two-time All-Star Max Fried, who left for the Yankees in free agency this past offseason. Dating back to the 2006 season, the Braves have only given out three guaranteed multi-year extensions to starting pitchers: Strider’s six-year, $75MM deal in 2022; Julio Teheran’s six-year, $32.4MM deal in 2014; and Tim Hudson’s three-year, $28MM deal in 2009. What’s more, the Strider extension has not exactly gone according to plan thus far. While he won 20 games and earned Cy Young votes in 2023, he has made just two starts since the beginning of the 2024 season after damaging his UCL. It’s also worth noting that the Braves have seen many young pitchers get off to promising starts only to fizzle out soon after, whether due to injury or underperformance. That includes arms like Ian Anderson, Michael Soroka, Kyle Wright, and Elder. Perhaps all that will make them a bit more cautious when it comes to Schwellenbach.

As for what a Schwellenbach extension might look like, we can turn to several recent comps. Since Strider inked his deal in October 2022, four more starters with fewer than two years of service time have signed multi-year extensions. Schwellenbach can almost surely ask for more than Cristopher Sánchez’s four-year, $22.5MM guarantee, though he is unlikely to command as much as Strider. The other three extensions – for Hunter Greene, Brayan Bello, and Brandon Pfaadt – were all for somewhere between $45MM and $55MM in guaranteed money over five or six years (with at least one club option). Schwellenbach has arguably had more big league success than any of those pitchers did when they signed their extensions. However, he doesn’t have as much experience as Pfaadt or Bello, nor did he ever have the prospect pedigree of Greene. Still, the preseason ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA projections envisioned Schwellenbach to be roughly as valuable, if not more so, than all three of those arms. With that in mind, a six-year deal (that would buy out Schwellenbach’s first free agent season) with an AAV around $9MM and at least one club option would be a logical starting point for negotiations.

Do MLBTR readers think the Braves should offer Schwellenbach an extension? Perhaps you think Atlanta needs to act fast and extend him now before his star shoots any higher. Or perhaps you think the Braves would be smarter to wait until the young right-hander has proven himself over a larger sample of starts. Have your say in the poll below:

 

Photo courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel, Imagn Images

The Opener: Langford, López, Orioles Rotation

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Here are three things we’ll be paying attention to around baseball today:

1. Rangers await MRI results for Wyatt Langford:

Sophomore slugger Wyatt Langford exited last night’s game with tightness in his right side, the team revealed to reporters (including Kennedi Landry of MLB.com). According to Landry, Langford is optimistic the injury isn’t too serious, and he noted that it is not as painful as the left oblique strain he dealt with in spring training. Still, the 23-year-old will go for an MRI today, and the Rangers will know more about the severity of the issue after that. Langford is off to a strong start this season, with four home runs and an .894 OPS through his first 12 games. Losing his bat would be a tough blow to a Texas team that is already dealing with several injuries on the pitching front.

2. Pablo López exits with hamstring tightness:

Twins ace Pablo López left his start on Tuesday with what the team later told reporters (including Dan Hayes of The Athletic) was right hamstring tightness. Hayes reports that the right-hander will go for an MRI today. López’s description of the injury doesn’t exactly sound promising – his word of choice was “weird” – but he said he hopes to avoid the IL and make his next start as scheduled. However, he also mentioned that he has never experienced discomfort like this before. Thankfully for the Twins, they have some starting depth at Triple-A, should they need to call upon it. Former top prospect Zebby Matthews is pitching well and seems like the natural first choice for a call-up. Even so, there is no doubt that losing López for any amount of time would be a punch to the gut. Through 16 2/3 innings this season, he has pitched to a 1.62 ERA and 3.34 SIERA.

3. How will the Orioles replace Zach Eflin?

On Tuesday, Orioles manager Brandon Hyde confirmed that the team would briefly shut down Zach Eflin and place him on the 15-day IL. The right-hander is nursing a low-grade lat strain. Presumably, Baltimore will announce Eflin’s IL stint, and a corresponding active roster move, at some point before this afternoon’s rubber match with the Diamondbacks.

When it comes to replacing Eflin in the starting rotation, the O’s have a little more time to make their decision. As MLB.com’s Jake Rill explains, the Orioles can take advantage of two upcoming off days to put off choosing a fifth starter until April 19. At that time, however, they will have to make a difficult decision. Baltimore currently has an entire rotation’s worth of arms on the IL. Grayson Rodriguez, Trevor Rogers, Albert Suárez, and Chayce McDermott all suffered injuries before the season, while Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells are recovering from elbow surgeries last June. The only other healthy starters on Baltimore’s 40-man roster are late-offseason signing Kyle Gibson, who has not stretched out enough to pitch in the majors; Cody Poteet, who has been pitching out of the bullpen in the minors this season; and Brandon Young, who has no major league experience. Thus, Young seems to be the most likely choice for the start on April 19. He has thrown 11 1/3 scoreless innings over his first two Triple-A starts this season, striking out 11.

Yankees Sign Adam Ottavino

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The Yankees have signed veteran reliever Adam Ottavino to a major league contract, the team announced this morning. The right-hander was released by the Red Sox in March. Devin Williams has been placed on the paternity list, temporarily opening a space for Ottavino on the active roster, while JT Brubaker has been transferred to the 60-day IL, thereby making room for Ottavino on the 40-man.

Ottavino, 39, is a veteran of 14 MLB seasons. Over 724 regular season appearances, he has pitched to a 3.49 ERA and 3.44 SIERA, amassing 46 saves and 194 holds. Despite his advanced age, he has remained reliable in recent years. He has made at least 60 appearances in each of the past four seasons with a 3.41 ERA and 3.52 SIERA in that time. While his 4.34 ERA with the Mets last season was not particularly impressive, his 3.19 xERA and 3.27 SIERA offer reason to believe he can bounce back in 2025. While his ERA does not show it, he was equally good at racking up strikeouts and inducing weak contact. That’s usually a good recipe for success. On top of that, Ottavino is only one year removed from a 3.21 ERA performance in 2023 and only two years removed from a 2.06 ERA performance in 2022. That’s not to say Ottavino is a sure thing to succeed with the Yankees. There’s a reason the Mets left him off their NLCS roster last fall, and there’s a reason the Red Sox cut him this spring. Still, his long track record is the reason the Yankees are giving him another shot. After all, this team knows the highs and lows of the Ottavino experience as well as anyone. The righty was a Yankee for two years in 2019 and 2020. He pitched to a 1.90 ERA in 73 games his first season with the club and a 5.89 ERA in 24 games in his second.

The Yankees’ bullpen has not been hit by injuries quite as hard as their rotation. However, they are currently without Ian Hamilton (virus), Jonathan Loáisiga (rehab from elbow surgery), and Scott Effross (hamstring strain). Ottavino can offer some helpful depth, at least in the short term. When Williams returns from the paternity list, the Yankees will need to make another move if they plan to keep Ottavino in their bullpen. The most likely course of action would be that they send Brent Headrick to Triple-A. Headrick, 27, has one option year remaining.

Brubaker, 31, broke three ribs early on in spring training. He will now be unavailable until mid-to-late May. Acquired from the Pirates last March, the right-hander has not appeared in the majors since 2022. He missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery, and he was limited to just a handful of minor league rehab appearances in 2024. He looked like a capable back-end innings eater when last healthy, making 61 starts for Pittsburgh from 2020-22 with a 4.99 ERA but a 4.04 SIERA, averaging just over five innings per outing.

Lance Lynn To Retire

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Veteran starting pitcher Lance Lynn announced his retirement today on his and his wife’s podcast, Dymin in the Rough. In his own words, “I am officially retiring from baseball right here, right now… from Major League Baseball, I am done pitching.”

Lynn spent his final season with the Cardinals, pitching to a 3.84 ERA and 4.40 SIERA over 117 1/3 innings. The team went 15-8 in his starts. It was a fitting way to go out, pitching for the same team with whom he spent the first decade of his professional career. The Cardinals selected Lynn in the first round of the 2008 draft, and he made his big league debut just under three years later. He would quickly become a key contributor in the Cardinals’ bullpen, helping the team to a World Series championship in the fall.

Taking on a full-time starting job for the first time, Lynn was an All-Star in 2012. Overall, across six seasons in St. Louis from 2011-17, the right-hander threw close to 1,000 innings. He went 72-47 with a 3.38 ERA and 3.94 SIERA. He then spent most of his thirties bouncing between organizations, pitching for the Twins, Yankees, Rangers, White Sox, and Dodgers before returning to the Cardinals. Although Lynn had a couple of rough seasons in that time, he also had a few of his best. He earned Cy Young votes each year from 2019-21, finishing fifth, sixth, and third, respectively. He was also an All-Star in 2021, when he pitched to a career-best 2.69 ERA. All told, Lynn threw just over 2,000 MLB innings and collected just over 2,000 strikeouts. He pitched to a 3.74 ERA and won 143 games.

Some might have worried that Lynn was nearing the end in 2023, when he pitched to a bloated 5.73 ERA between the White Sox and Dodgers. It was only the second time in his career that he posted an ERA above 4.00. That being said, he still made 32 starts that year, and his respectable 4.33 SIERA was an encouraging sign. The Cardinals clearly had faith in Lynn, signing him to a one-year, $11MM guarantee with a club option for 2025, and he proved them right. While right knee inflammation limited him to 23 starts, he looked like a perfectly solid back-end starter in those games. Aside from one blowup outing in July (2 2/3 IP, 11 R), he gave St. Louis a chance to win each time he took the mound. However, the Cardinals declined his $12MM team option for 2025.

While Lynn did have some suitors over the winter, the Cubs were one team known to have interest, he says, “The money didn’t work out.” He adds that he wasn’t particularly interested in the possibility of signing with a team mid-season. In other words, prolonging his career was not his top priority. To that point, he might have also had a chance to prolong his career by transitioning into a reliever – an option he seemed at least somewhat interested in when he discussed the topic with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic in January. Yet, his comments suggest he is quite happy with the way he ultimately went out.

Verlander: Astros Were Not “In A Place To Make An Offer” This Offseason

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Justin Verlander reportedly drew interest from several suitors over the offseason, but the Astros, his former team, were the only club known to have spoken with the three-time Cy Young winner before he signed a one-year, $15MM contract with the Giants. Yet, a new story from The Athletic’s Chandler Rome suggests a reunion between Verlander and Houston was never even close to a reality. Although the two sides kept in touch over the winter – Verlander told Rome he spoke with owner Jim Crane “a lot” and that they had “mutual interest” in a deal – the Astros did not make the veteran an offer.

According to Verlander, he continued his talks with Crane after the Giants made it clear they were interested in his services. At that point, however, Verlander says Crane told him that the Astros were not “even in a place to make an offer.” To some, this might not come as much of a surprise. After all, one could argue that the writing was on the wall for Verlander in Houston as soon as the Astros left him off their postseason roster last October. On the other hand, Verlander himself did not see it that way. He told Rome that he did not truly consider, at that time, the possibility that his final start with the Astros last season might be his final ever outing with the club.

The Astros paid the luxury tax for the first time in 2024. While Crane told reporters (including Rome) in November that the team had “the wherewithal” to continue spending at the same level in 2025, Houston ultimately ended up cutting payroll significantly. According to the estimates from RosterResource, the club’s payroll is $25MM lower right now than it was at the end of last season, while their luxury tax payroll is about $3.5MM below the first tax threshold. It’s not as if GM Dana Brown had no money to spend this past offseason; he signed Christian Walker to a three-year, $60MM deal. However, the Astros also let Alex Bregman walk and shaved payroll by trading Kyle Tucker. Meanwhile, Brown’s only notable addition to a starting rotation that certainly could have used some help was Hayden Wesneski, acquired in the Tucker trade. The 27-year-old right-hander comes with promise and former top prospect upside, but he has never started more than 11 games in a season. He is scheduled to make his Astros debut this evening against the Giants.

All that to say, it sure seems like the luxury tax was the primary obstacle that got in the way of a reunion between Verlander and the Astros. Rome’s reporting suggests the same. While neither Crane nor Brown ever explicitly stated that the team needed to get back below the first luxury tax threshold, Rome reports that the club operated as if that were the case.

So, was last season the end of the line for Verlander and the Astros? Not necessarily. There is clearly a strong relationship between the two. Crane’s Astros have traded for Verlander twice, extended him once, and re-signed him in free agency once. Meanwhile, Verlander told Rome he would “always entertain the idea of coming back” to Houston. With that said, he is now 42 years old, and it’s not far-fetched to wonder if this season could be his last. Then again, Verlander hasn’t given any indication that he’s thinking about retirement. Last fall, he told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) that he felt like he still had “a lot more to give pitching-wise.” He showed as much in his first start of the 2025 season, giving the Giants five innings of two-run ball, striking out five, and walking just one. If Verlander is looking for a team again next winter, and the Astros are willing to spend a bit more cash, it would hardly be surprising to see the two linked once again.

Offseason In Review: Texas Rangers

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After a disappointing follow-up season to their first-ever World Series championship, the Rangers were the busiest team in the AL West over the offseason. Did they do enough to put themselves in the driver’s seat of the division?

Major League Signings

2025 spending: $56.225MM (not including Curvelo)
Total spending: $139.475MM (not including Curvelo)

Option Decisions

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

While the Rangers significantly increased payroll during the 2021-22 and 2022-23 offseasons, they weren’t nearly as active the winter after their World Series victory, despite the extra cash their success surely brought in. The reason? Declining television revenue and an unknown future for their TV broadcasts. Texas was one of many teams affected when the company then known as Diamond Sports Group filed for bankruptcy in 2023. The Rangers negotiated a new agreement with DSG for 2024, but it was only a one-year deal, and it paid them significantly less than they had received under their previous contract.

The Rangers did not re-up with DSG (now called Main Street Sports Group) for 2025, nor did they follow the path of teams like the Guardians and Twins, who will have their TV broadcasts distributed by MLB this season. Instead, the Rangers announced the brand new Rangers Sports Network in late January. RSN will partner with several TV providers to distribute games. Presumably, the team decided this would be a more lucrative option than signing away their exclusive TV rights to another broadcast company or MLB. Still, the whole ordeal meant the Rangers were facing quite a bit of financial uncertainty for the second consecutive winter. For the first time in four years, they did not increase their payroll. Indeed, the team made it a goal to drop below the luxury tax threshold in 2025. According to the estimates from RosterResource, those efforts were successful. The Rangers' payroll sits about $4MM lower than where it was at the end of last season, while their CBT payroll is $14.5MM lower – and $4.7MM below the first tax threshold.

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Blue Jays DFA Zach Pop, Tommy Nance, Nick Robertson

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The Blue Jays revealed their Opening Day roster this morning and, in the process, announced that they have designated three right-handed pitchers for assignment: Zach Pop, Tommy Nance, and Nick Robertson. The three DFAs make room for right-hander Jacob Barnes and outfielders Alan Roden and Myles Straw on the 40-man roster. The Blue Jays had already confirmed their intention to select Barnes, Roden, and Straw, and today, they made the decision official. In addition, the Blue Jays formally placed right-handers Erik Swanson and Ryan Burr on the 15-day IL and center fielder Daulton Varsho on the 10-day IL. The team had already announced that Swanson, Burr, and Varsho would miss the beginning of the season.

Pop, 28, has pitched for the Marlins and Blue Jays throughout his four-year MLB career. In that time, he has a 4.45 ERA and 3.94 SIERA across 155 2/3 innings of work. He was electric after Toronto acquired him at the 2022 trade deadline, pitching to a 1.89 ERA in 17 appearances down the stretch. However, he has struggled at the big league level in each of the past two seasons, pitching to a 5.81 ERA in 73 total appearances. His 4.31 SIERA is better but still not especially promising. The righty is a groundball pitcher who does not miss many bats. His home run rate over the past two years (1.89 HR/9) is far too high for a pitcher who also issues his fair share of walks. To make matters worse, Pop was set to begin the season on Toronto’s injured list with elbow discomfort that arose this spring.

Nance, now 34, made his MLB debut with the Cubs at age 30 in 2021. He has had somewhat of an up-and-down career to this point. His rookie season was rough, but he looked like a capable low-leverage reliever over 43 2/3 innings with the Marlins in 2022. Then, injuries kept him out for much of 2023. He signed a minor league deal with the Padres last offseason and failed to make his way back to the majors in San Diego. Yet, after a late-summer trade to Toronto, he looked perfectly serviceable once again, pitching to a 4.09 ERA and 3.96 SIERA in 22 innings of lower-leverage work. He leads with a curveball and a sinker, a good approach for inducing groundballs, but hasn’t been able to consistently induce outs and strand baserunners at the highest level.

Robertson, 26, has already pitched for four different teams over his two MLB seasons, suiting up for the Dodgers and Red Sox in 2023 and the Cardinals and Blue Jays in 2024. He also pitched in the Angels’ system in between his stints with St. Louis and Toronto. The right-hander has a 5.30 ERA but a 3.52 SIERA in 35 2/3 career MLB frames. He has shown the ability to pitch multiple innings out of the bullpen as needed, but his performance has been poor at both the major and minor league levels since he left the Dodgers organization as part of the Enrique Hernández deadline trade in 2023. At times in the minors, Robertson has shown sharp strikeout stuff, but he has struggled in recent years to consistently rack up strikeouts and limit walks. He has one option year remaining, which could make him a bit more appealing to a club in need of bullpen help.

The Blue Jays will enter 2025 with something of a new-look bullpen, led by free agent acquisition and 2024 All-Star Jeff Hoffman. Other new pieces include Yimi García, who is back after a brief stint with the Mariners; Nick Sandlin, whom the Blue Jays acquired as part of the Andrés Giménez trade; and Richard Lovelady, who, like Barnes, signed a minor league deal with the club this offseason. Toronto selected his contract last week.

Red Sox Notes: Eovaldi, Zavala, Gambrell

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Nathan Eovaldi started for the Red Sox on Opening Day each year from 2020-22, pitching a combined 16 1/3 innings with a 2.76 ERA. Today, the Red Sox will face their former no. 1 starter on Opening Day, sending their new ace, Garrett Crochet, to the bump against Eovaldi and the Rangers.

Facing Eovaldi is never an enviable task – the right-hander has a winning record and an ERA under 4.00 in each of the past five seasons – but the Red Sox, in particular, probably aren’t thrilled to be meeting up with their old friend this afternoon. After all, they made an effort to re-acquire him this past offseason, and as it turns out, they were the runner-up for his services. According to Rob Bradford of WEEI, six teams showed legitimate interest in signing Eovaldi this winter, but the veteran’s decision ultimately came down to Texas or Boston. However, it’s not known how much money the Red Sox were willing to offer or if their final bid came close to the three-year, $75MM guarantee he landed with the Rangers.

Interestingly, Boston’s trade for Crochet came together less than 24 hours after Eovaldi signed with Texas. That’s not to say the Red Sox wouldn’t have pursued Crochet if they landed Eovaldi, but it’s a possibility worth considering. If that’s true, one could argue that missing out on Eovaldi was the best possible outcome for Craig Breslow and company. Eovaldi is a great pitcher, but Crochet is coming off an All-Star season and already looks like a strong early contender for the AL Cy Young.

Of course, the Red Sox would have been even better off with both Crochet and Eovaldi atop their rotation, especially now that so many of their other starters are on the IL, namely Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello, and Kutter Crawford. And while the Red Sox surely have high hopes for the free agents starters they added this offseason – Walker Buehler and Patrick Sandoval – Eovaldi would have been a far less risky signing.

In other Red Sox news, catcher Seby Zavala has accepted his outright assignment and will begin the season with the Triple-A WooSox, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive. The 31-year-old was informed last week that he would not be making the Opening Day roster. While the minor league deal he signed with Boston in November included an assignment clause that allowed him to seek out an opportunity on another team’s 40-man roster, it appears he was not able to find such an opportunity and has instead reported to Triple-A. A veteran of five big league seasons, Zavala is a plus defender with 183 games of MLB catching experience. He will offer the Red Sox depth behind starting catcher Connor Wong, backup Carlos Narvaez, and Blake Sabol, who has a spot on the 40-man roster but will start the season at Triple-A.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox have released Grant Gambrell, a minor league right-handed starter (h/t to Christopher Smith of MassLive). Gambrell was one of five players Boston received in 2021 as part of the three-team trade that sent Andrew Benintendi to the Royals. The Red Sox initially acquired outfielder Franchy Cordero from Kansas City and right-hander Josh Winckowski from the Mets, while Gambrell was one of three players to be named later, along with fellow righty Luis De La Rosa and outfielder Freddy Valdez. As Smith points out, Winckowski is now the only player from that trade who is still playing in the Red Sox organization. Gambrell had pitched relatively well in Boston’s system over the past two years, putting up a 3.81 ERA and 4.29 FIP in 41 games (39 starts). However, he was never a top prospect, and now 27 years old, the Red Sox have evidently decided he does not fit into their future plans.

The Opener: Opening Day, Soto, Baker

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Here are three things we’ll be following around baseball as the 2025 season gets underway:

1. Opening Day has arrived:

The 2025 MLB regular season technically began in Tokyo earlier this month with a two-game set between the Dodgers and Cubs. Yet, today marks the first game of the season for 26 of the league’s 30 teams. The Yankees and Brewers will kick things off with the first matchup of the day at 2:05 pm CT, and games will continue throughout the afternoon and evening, ending with contests between the Cubs and Diamondbacks and the Athletics and Mariners at 9:10 pm CT. Only the Rays and Rockies will have to wait one more day to get their seasons started, as the Rays have been given some extra time to prepare their new, temporary stadium, George M. Steinbrenner Field.

2. Roster spot for Livan Soto?

Livan Soto does not have a spot on the Orioles’ 40-man roster, nor has he been informed he’s breaking camp. However, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports that the young infielder has a locker in the visiting clubhouse at the Rogers Centre ahead of today’s Opening Day matchup between the Orioles and Blue Jays.

Baltimore acquired Soto from the Reds ahead of the trade deadline last summer. The 24-year-old came with limited big league experience (23 games, 74 PA), but the O’s took advantage of his optionability and defensive versatility to use him as an up-and-down depth piece for the bench. He went 3-for-10 with an .862 OPS in 12 games, taking reps at second base, third base, and shortstop. The Orioles DFA’d Soto in January but invited him to big league camp this spring. Whether or not he makes the Opening Day roster likely depends on the status of fellow utility man Jorge Mateo. Mateo underwent elbow surgery last season and has been slowly building up this spring. It remains unclear if he’ll need to start the year on the IL, but if he does, Soto would presumably take his spot on the active roster. For what it’s worth, Kubatko points out that Mateo does not currently have a locker in Toronto.

3. The Orioles’ final bullpen spot:

Orioles right-hander Bryan Baker finds himself in a similar position to Soto. As Kubatko notes, Baker has not yet been informed if he has made the Opening Day roster, but he too has a locker at the Rogers Centre. Unlike Soto, however, Baker is already on Baltimore’s 40-man and is out of minor league options. In other words, it would be bigger news if Baker didn’t make the Opening Day roster, as the Orioles would have to designate him for assignment. What’s more, Kubatko reports that neither Matt Bowman nor Roansy Contreras, Baker’s biggest competitors for the final bullpen spot, has a locker in Toronto. It certainly seems like the job is his.

The 30-year-old Baker pitched well for Baltimore in his rookie season two years ago, putting up a 3.49 ERA and 3.35 SIERA in 66 games. He followed that up with a solid sophomore campaign (3.60 ERA, 4.14 SIERA in 46 games) but spent most of the final two months of the season at Triple-A after the trade deadline. This past year, he was optioned and recalled five times throughout the campaign. While his 5.01 ERA in 19 games was poor, his underlying numbers (3.48 SIERA, 3.59 xERA) remained solid.

Randy Dobnak Will Make Twins Roster

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Over the weekend, the Twins told reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press) that Rule 5 draft pick Eiberson Castellano would not make the Opening Day roster. That decision meant Minnesota would soon have an open spot on the 40-man – the Twins can’t keep Castellano if he isn’t on the active roster or the IL. It also meant the team had one more spot to fill in the Opening Day bullpen. Today, Bobby Nightengale of the Minnesota Star Tribune reported that both of those spots will go to Randy Dobnak. The right-hander will take on a long relief role to begin the year (per Nightengale).

Dobnak, 30, has spent his entire career in the Twins organization. He signed with the club as an undrafted free agent in 2017 and made his big league debut just two years later. The righty earned a regular role in the rotation the following season, making 10 starts with a 4.05 ERA and 4.56 SIERA during the shortened 2020 campaign. Although he failed to miss many bats (13.5% strikeout rate), Dobnak led all pitchers (min. 40 IP) with a 62.1% groundball rate. He faced 200 batters and allowed just three home runs.

That performance earned Dobnak a nice little extension ahead of 2021, a five-year, $9.25MM guarantee with escalators and club options that could increase the total value of the contract to $29.75MM over eight years. Yet, the Twins put him back in the bullpen to start the season, and while he ultimately made it back to the rotation for a handful of starts, he struggled in both roles. Across 14 games (six starts) and 50 2/3 innings, he pitched to a 7.64 ERA, though his 4.53 SIERA was almost identical to his SIERA from the year before.

Things continued trending downhill for Dobnak in 2022, and he ended up sitting out most of the season with a right middle finger strain, an injury that had also given him trouble in 2021. While he was healthy again in 2023, he did not make his way back to the big league roster, spending the season with the Triple-A St. Paul Saints. Dobnak finally returned to the majors in 2024, albeit briefly, tossing 9 2/3 innings in relief. He gave up six runs on 11 hits and five walks, while striking out seven. All told, he has a career 4.99 ERA and 4.43 SIERA over 135 1/3 innings, including 21 starts and 17 games out of the ’pen.

The Twins initially reassigned Dobnak to minor league camp two weeks ago, but evidently, he pitched well enough over there to change the team’s mind. Now in the final guaranteed year of his contract, Dobnak is a useful depth piece for Minnesota. He has experience as both a starter and a reliever, and he has thrown at least 125 innings in each of the past two seasons. What’s more, the Twins can add him to the 40-man and subsequently outright him as much as they would like with little risk of losing him. He does not have the necessary MLB service time to reject an outright assignment without forfeiting his remaining salary.

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