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Minor MLB Transactions: 12/27/17

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The baseball world is in the midst of a holiday lull right now, but there are at least a few things happening. We’ll keep track of the minor moves in this post…

  • The Red Sox have agreed to terms on a minor league deal with Mike Olt, says Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish. A former top prospect, Olt was once part of a package sent from the Rangers to the Cubs in exchange for Matt Garza prior to the 2013 trade deadline. The third baseman has never able to make an impression in the major leagues, however. In all of his MLB stints, Olt has played at half a win below replacement level or worse. He owns a lifetime .168/.250/.330 batting line across 400 career plate appearances with the Cubs, Rangers and White Sox, and has whiffed in an astonishing 37% of his plate appearances. He does carry some pedigree, however, and Boston will hope he can show some of the defensive skills and power ability that prompted Baseball America to rank him within their top 50 prospects in both 2011 and 2012.

Recent Christmas Day Transactions

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Happy Holidays, MLBTR readers! We hope you’re all enjoying the season of giving. December 25th is typically a quiet day for transactional news, but it’s not altogether uncommon for teams to make small moves. Since the turn of the millenium, there have been a few players to receive Christmas presents in the form of minor league contracts, and even one who earned a major league deal. Here’s a quick recap of the Christmas Day signings since the year 2000…

2016

  • The Tigers signed left-fielder Quincy Latimore to a minor league deal.
  • The Red Sox inked third baseman Heiker Meneses and left fielder Brian Bogusevic to minors pacts, the latter of whom was extended an invitation to spring training camp.

2013

  • The Yankees reached a deal with right-hander Yoshinori Tateyama on a minor league contract that included a spring training invite.

2012

  • The Cubs signed right-hander Jaye Chapman to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training.

2007

  • The Giants signed right-hander Keiichi Yabu to a minors pact with a spring training invite.

2004

  • The Cardinals signed Abraham Nunez, a utility infield type, to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.
  • The Royals signed right-hander Jose Lima to a major league contract. The club also added infielder Luis Ugueto on a minor league deal with a spring training invite.

 

Looking for a Match in a J.T. Realmuto Trade

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A new ownership group in Miami (headlined by Derek Jeter) has kicked off a fire sale. Dee Gordon is now a Mariner, Giancarlo Stanton a Yankee, and Marcell Ozuna a Cardinal, and there’s no telling whether the Marlins are done yet.

In the wake of this significant shift in direction for the organization, catcher J.T. Realmuto has reportedly requested a trade out of the city. While the team has stated that they have no intention to trade him (via Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports), the club had similar things to say about Ozuna early this offseason before shipping him to St. Louis for a package of prospects. On that note, there’s reason to at least explore his trade value and market.

Unlike Stanton or Gordon, Realmuto has significant surplus value on his contract. He’s been worth a combined 9 WAR across the past three seasons due to his excellent defense, above-average bat and good baserunning skills. He’s projected to make just a $4.2MM salary in his first trip through the arbitration process, and comes with two additional years of team control beyond the 2018 season. The former third-round pick out of Oklahoma’s Carl Albert High School is just entering his prime; he’ll begin the 2018 season having turned just 27 years old.

Realmuto, then, doesn’t help the Marlins’ with their loudly-stated goal to shed salary. However, by taking Stanton, Gordon and Ozuna off the books, they seem to have already reduced their payroll significantly. They don’t seem to have any intention of competing for an NL East pennant this year, and it’s looking more and more like Realmuto won’t be around for the next winning Marlins club. After all, teams like the Astros, Cubs and Nationals all took longer than three years to go from teardown to contention.

So with a realistic time frame to contend in mind, it’s difficult to believe the Marlins wouldn’t move Realmuto for the right offer. The question, then, is a matter of what kind of package would tempt them enough to move their backstop. Above-average major leaguers with three arbitration years remaining typically cost a small fortune; one need not look any further than the Braves’ recent trades of Andrelton Simmons and Craig Kimbrel for evidence. It would likely take at least one “blue-chip” prospect to even get the Marlins to pick up the phone, and probably another prospect within or near the top 100 to ultimately get a deal done.

A trade partner, then, would need to have a strong farm system along with a significant need at the catcher position. That club wouldn’t necessarily need to stand out as a contender this season, but Realmuto would fit best on a team with a fairly obvious multi-year window in the near future.

The Nationals jump off the page as the most obvious trade partner for the Marlins in a hypothetical Realmuto trade. They have a great farm system, including outfielder Juan Soto, who doesn’t have an obvious path to the majors. The Nationals’ outfield is crowded, and superprospect Victor Robles is ahead of him in the pecking order. Thanks in part to a terrible season from Matt Wieters, Nats catchers ranked dead last in the majors with -1.1 fWAR. Washington would definitely benefit from the sizable upgrade Realmuto would provide them at the catcher position; in theory the team would have won about five more games last year if they’d had him instead of Wieters.

Beyond that, the Rockies and Diamondbacks are fairly good fits. Both clubs ranked in the bottom ten in WAR value from the catcher position in 2017, and neither has any promising backstops in their farm system. Additionally, both teams are obvious contenders in 2018. Either team could feasibly deal from its prospect depth in order to add Realmuto to their lineup.

The Padres may be ready to give up on Austin Hedges at this point, and while the team probably won’t win next season, they could feasibly be contenders before Realmuto hits free agency. The Twins could make a play if they’re not content with mediocre offensive production from Jason Castro. If the Brewers aren’t buying last year’s breakout from 30-year-old Manny Pina, they’d have plenty of prospect depth to get a deal done.

Although there’s no rush to trade him at the moment, there are a host of teams that would probably be willing to fork over enormous value for a catcher who ranked third in the majors in fWAR this past season. The Marlins would be wise to keep their ears open if they’re approached teams who are interested in, or desperate for, an elite backstop.

Latest on Gerrit Cole

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TODAY: Chance Adams and Miguel Andujar could be part of a hypothetical Yankees/Pirates trade for Cole, Kristie Ackert and Bill Madden of the New York Daily News report.  If those two prospects and Frazier are all included, that could mean the Pirates will also include Josh Harrison in the deal.  While the Yankees have also talked to the Diamondbacks about Patrick Corbin and the Tigers about Michael Fulmer, it seems as if Cole is New York’s preferred target of the three pitchers; Corbin is under control for just the 2018 season while Detroit is putting an enormous asking price on Fulmer’s services.

SATURDAY: A trade of Gerrit Cole doesn’t appear to be imminent at this point, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports (via Twitter). Though it seemed at one point that talks between the Yankees and Pirates were picking up momentum, Crasnick says that multiple clubs have engaged with the Pirates since the winter meetings; the prospect of a Cole trade isn’t “Yankees or bust”.

The Yankees don’t appear to have tunnel vision on a Cole deal, either. Though the Bronx Bombers are trying to net Pittsburgh’s prized right-hander with proposals centered around Clint Frazier, Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that the Bombers offered similar packages to the Rays and Tigers for Chris Archer and Michael Fulmer, respectively. From my perspective, it seems as though the Yankees may not be interested in Cole specifically, but rather could have a broader objective to move the 23-year-old Frazier in exchange for pitching help. Following the club’s acquisition of Giancarlo Stanton, it appears as though Frazier is destined to be a high-ceiling depth piece for the Yankees, whose outfield picture features Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks and Stanton, with Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury also on the roster.

In a brilliant piece for the New York Post, Joel Sherman points out that the Yankees can afford to be patient, as they did with Stanton this winter and Sonny Gray this summer. They’re not desperate for pitching right now, as their rotation is set to feature Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Gray, CC Sabathia and Jordan Montgomery. While each of those pitchers carries a question mark or two (or in Sherman’s words, “red flag possibilities”), the ballclub wouldn’t be chastised if it were to have these five in the rotation come Opening Day. Furthermore, top prospects Chance Adams and Justus Sheffield could reach the majors before long, with Adams being the more likely of the two to contribute in 2018.

From the Pirates’ side, they don’t necessarily need another outfielder. However, it stands to reason that a trade of Cole could set off a domino effect that prompts Pittsburgh to sell off other pieces. As Brink states in a separate article (one that deals with the “what if” scenario of a Cole trade), trading the right-hander could act as “the first tug on the rope that raises the white flag on 2018.” In that case, they’d be highly likely to shop Andrew McCutchen, the 2013 NL MVP, and his hypothetical trade would mean that Frazier could suddenly become a useful piece.

It’s unclear how serious the Pirates’ talks are with other potential suitors at this time, or even whether those clubs have made formal offers. Crasnick notes in his above tweet that a deal probably won’t come together before Christmas, but adds that trade talks could pick up again between then and New Year’s. It stands to reason that Pittsburgh could be patient for months, or even wait until the 2018 trade deadline to trade Cole (if they opt to move him at all). It will of course be far more evident how the Pirates’ playoff chances compare with those of the other NL Central clubs. However, there are plenty of reasons to move him now as well, including the high probability that clubs would be willing to pay more to have Cole for a full season, and the risk that the Yankees might acquire a different starter.

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/23/17

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We’ll use this post to keep track of teams’ minor moves throughout the day…

  • Infielder Matt Dominguez has agreed to a one-year deal with the Chiba Lotte Marines of Nippon Professional Baseball, Steve Adams of MLBTR reports (on Twitter). Once a highly regarded prospect, the 28-year-old Dominguez hasn’t panned out in the bigs since debuting with the Marlins in 2011. He spent all of last year with Boston’s Triple-A affiliate and hit .264/.295/.425 with 16 home runs in 451 plate appearances.

Earlier updates

  • The Rockies have agreed to terms on a minor-league pact with Dante Bichette Jr., whose father was a four-time Rockies All-Star. News of the pact was originally reported by Matt Kardos at Pinstripe Prospects, and later confirmed by the elder Dante Bichette (via Thomas Harding of MLB.com). Bichette Jr. began his career in promising fashion after the Yankees made him a supplemental first round pick in the 2011 draft; the third baseman hit .342/.446/.505 with the Yankees’ Rookie league affiliate. However, he’s never quite managed to replicate that success at any other level of the minors. As such, Bichette Jr. has yet to reach Triple-A. Most recently, he hit .262/.352/.352 with the Trenton Thunder (Double-A affiliate of the Yankees) in 2017.

Indians Notes: Santana, Spending, Alonso, Kipnis

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Indians GM Chris Antonetti told reporters today that the club was in on Carlos Santana until the very end (hat tip to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com). It seemed that Santana’s reps kept the Tribe informed through the entirety of Santana’s free agency, but in the end, things just didn’t work out for Cleveland. This news comes as another sign that Santana wanted to remain with the Indians if possible; the first baseman also wrote an emotional goodbye letter to Tribe fans in which he stated, “I cried once it sunk in that I would no longer be suiting up for and living in the City of Cleveland.” Ultimately, he signed a three-year, $60MM contract with the Phillies. Santana came to Cleveland in the Casey Blake trade prior to the 2008 trade deadline. Though the Dominican Republic native came up as a catcher through the minors, his most recent years have been spent as a first baseman. He hit .249/.365/.449 during his time with the Indians, and provided them with 23 fWAR. The club will now hope that new signee Yonder Alonso can replace his fantastic patience in their lineup.

More from the Indians’ camp on the day the Alonso signing was announced…

  • Bastian also tweeted some words from Antonetti about the club’s spending plans for the remainder of the offseason. It seems as though the Alonso signing may be the Tribe’s most significant of the winter, though they’ll reportedly continue to explore their options. “We’ll continue to be active,” the Indians GM told reporters. “We had a certain amount of flexibility heading into the offseason that we had to use judicially, and this will represent the vast bulk of that flexibility. The cost of retaining the nucleus of our team is more expensive.” Indeed, the Indians have a number of expensive arbitration-eligible players. MLBTR projects that Trevor Bauer, Lonnie Chisenhall, Danny Salazar and Cody Allen alone will cost the club nearly $30MM, and there are still smaller salaries to account for within their arb-eligible group.
  • Antonetti isn’t worried about Alonso’s ability to sustain a high level of production, Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal tweets. The Indians GM cites his control of the strike zone and escalating average exit velocity across the past three seasons as evidence of a “purposeful adjustment”. It’s worth noting that there’s a healthy amount of skepticism in the industry over whether the former top prospect’s .266/.365/.501 season was a true breakout or a career year. As Evan Davis of FanRag Sports writes in a detailed piece, there’s reason to believe certain adjustments could yield sustainable results over the long-term, including a 9.1-degree spike in average launch angle that led to a .385 xwOBA in the season’s first half. However, Davis also points out that his second half was far more pedestrian; Alonso’s xwOBA and wRC+ both plummeted to levels more indicative of his previous self.
  • One of the remaining items on Antonetti’s docket is to speak with Jason Kipnis about a position plan, Bastian says in yet another tweet. Antonetti told reporters that it’s possible Kipnis could be a contingency plan for Michael Brantley in left field if the two-time All-Star isn’t ready for Opening Day. As Anthony DiComo of MLB.com notes, Antonetti’s words make it seem all the more likely that Kipnis will open the 2018 season in an Indians uniform.

AL Notes: Gordon, Segura, Twins, Roberto Perez

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New Mariners center fielder Dee Gordon doesn’t like what’s happening in Miami, Tim Healey of the Sun Sentinel reports. While his words don’t stir up controversy quite to the level of Giancarlo Stanton’s upon the slugger’s own exit from Miami, Gordon was very candid with his feelings about the direction of the Marlins’ franchise. “It’s terrible,” Gordon said, via Healey. “It’s almost — I’m not even going to say almost. It’s embarrassing. It’s embarrassing. I don’t want to bash anyone, but what’s happened is not good.” The former Marlins second baseman expressed a distaste for the franchise’s trades of Stanton, Marcell Ozuna and himself, accusing the team of getting rid of them because of payroll obligations the Marlins’ new ownership “can’t take care of.” When asked what he thinks the club should do with Christian Yelich, Gordon said, “I think you have to let the dude go win.” Under new ownership, or course, the Marlins have expressed a desire to change the way the team operates financially in order to create sustainable success for the long-term. While the strategy has been met with skepticism by many (including colorful agent Scott Boras), others side with Derek Jeter and co., believing that the new owners aren’t morally obligated to remain bound to the financial decisions of the old regime.

More from around baseball’s American League during the holiday season…

  • In other Mariners news, shortstop Jean Segura says he was assaulted and robbed at gunpoint by corrupt police in the Dominican Republic. Mark Townsend of Yahoo Sports delves into the details of incident, which Segura made public via a post on his Instagram account. The photo of the post appears to show a number of DICAN officers, one of whom is “visibly armed,” in Townsend’s words. The Dominican Republic National Police have since announced the appointment of a commission to investigate the incident. Segura followed up a breakout 5-WAR 2016 campaign with the Diamondbacks by hitting .300/.349/.427 across 566 plate appearances in 2017.
  • The Twins “hope to get a meeting soon with Darvish,” Darren Wolfson of KSTP reports in a tweet. While the prospect of a meeting certainly doesn’t imply a serious pursuit of the former Rangers ace (indeed, Wolfson adds that there’s no indication the club has made a formal offer), a potential pursuit of Darvish by Minnesota is intriguing. Any contract large enough to lure him in would need to nearly triple the club’s highest-ever guarantee given to a pitcher ($55MM to Ervin Santana). However, it’s no secret that the Twins are in dire need of pitching if they plan to compete this offseason, and as MLBTR’s Steve Adams notes, the club is definitely in a position to spend this offseason.
  • Roberto Perez, backup catcher for the Indians, is focused on getting his mother a new home. A story by Jordan Bastian of MLB.com details Perez’ desire to sit down with his mom Lilliam Martinez this holiday season and discuss plans to build a new house to replace the one that was severely damaged by Hurricane Maria. Bastian’s piece provides some insight into the emotions of Perez since the storm hit; the piece is well worth a read for fans looking to learn more about how Puerto Rico has been affected since landfall by the Class 5 storm. The 29-year-old Perez made his MLB debut with the Indians back in 2014. He signed a four-year, $9MM extension last spring following three excellent defensive seasons with the Tribe.

John Middleton On Phillies’ Spending Plans

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Phillies owner John Middleton believes that his team is ready to start winning again, Mike Sielski writes in an article for Philly.com. It appears as though the franchise is actively looking to end its five-year run of fourth- and fifth-place finishes, based on some of Middleton’s comments about their budget and spending plans. Here’s what he had to say following a news conference introducing recent signee Carlos Santana.

Yeah, I think we’re close. They came to us with a budget, and we said, ‘Guys, if you want to put that number in for the budget, that’s fine, but don’t live with that. If something comes up, and it breaks the bank relative to the budget, and you don’t pursue it, we’re going to be upset.’ And they know that.

Sielski writes that Middleton wants to spend money, and doesn’t want the “small-market, too-thrifty label that the franchise slapped on itself a generation ago.” Middleton certainly isn’t the type of owner that has tremendous patience for losing, but the piece sheds some light on how he views the team’s rebuilding process. In a colorful analogy, he compares the team’s progress to a duck swimming on top of water. While the Phillies haven’t been making much progress on the surface, there’s certainly been a furious process underneath that’s not visible to the public eye.

A large part of that process has come in the way of a typical rebuild for a baseball team: trade away current major-league assets for future potential, accept a losing record and the high draft picks that come with it, and be patient throughout the process while focusing efforts on the development of future stars. But another significant part of the club’s rebuild has come in the form of a transformation of the way the club operates. As Sielski notes, the team has focused on creating and maintaining a successful analytics department.

Indeed, the organization has made some changes to their front office in recent years that reflect a shift in baseball philosophy. For example, in January of 2016, the club gave major promotions to two analytically-minded members of its staff. Scott Freedman, who was hired as a baseball analytics manager in 2013, was made director of baseball operations. They also promoted talented analytics intern Lewis Pollis, then 23 years old, to a a full time role in baseball research development. Pollis is a graduate of Brown University whose senior thesis on MLB front office personnel was published by the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) and widely-read throughout the baseball industry.

The above moves and more are evidence of Philadelphia’s “underwater” moves to push the club towards sustainable success for the long-term. It seems as though Middleton’s comments and the Santana signing are major signals that the Phillies are ready to come out the other side of their rebuild. Budding stars such as Rhys Hoskins, Aaron Nola, Jorge Alfaro and others look primed to lead the club towards a winning season at long last, and a number of highly-touted prospects in the club’s farm system should keep them in contention for years to come. As Sielski points out, the timing is great for them; the Marlins are entering a full teardown of the major league roster, the Mets appear unwilling to spend big, and the Nationals may be nearing the end of their window of contention. Even the Braves, who are beginning to look good at the MLB level, just watched their farm system and front office get thrown into disarray after former GM John Coppolella circumvented MLB’s international signing rules.

Perhaps most significantly, Middleton describes the asking prices for Chris Archer and Gerrit Cole as “an arm and a leg.” While fact that the Rays and Pirates are asking a lot for their starting pitchers doesn’t come as a surprise, the news that the Phillies GM Matt Klentak has been involved in discussions for those players points to a genuine desire to get back in the mix for an NL East pennant. It’s clear that an acquisition of Archer or Cole would involve giving up significant assets for a major-leaguer with only two years of team control remaining. Of course, it’s easily possible that inquiries on these pitchers were simply due diligence, but a particular quote from the conference suggests that the Phillies would move on one of them at the right price. “I’ve got a deal over here, and it’s a bad deal,” Middleton said, quoting Klentak “I think if I tweaked it this way, it would be a good deal. I’d be willing to do this deal, not their deal.”

I recently noted in MLBTR’s offseason outlook for the Phillies that their rebuilding process had begun to bear fruit and that they looked to be on the rise. But signing Santana to a three-year deal and exploring trades for pitchers who become free agents after 2019 both reveal an aggressive, win-now mindset. With this information in mind, the rest of the offseason carries an added level of suspense for Phillies fans. It will be fascinating to see what other moves they make in an attempt to add wins in the short term.

Nationals Re-Sign Brandon Kintzler

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DECEMBER 21: Washington has announced the signing.

DECEMBER 14: The Nationals are set to re-sign free agent reliever Brandon Kintzler to a two-year deal, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports in a tweet. The deal is pending a physical. Kintzler acknowledged that he’ll be returning to D.C. in an interview with MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link).

Aug 15, 2017; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals relief pitcher Brandon Kintzler (21) throws a pitch against the Los Angeles Angels during the eighth inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Contract details are still coming in, and they paint a somewhat complicated picture. The deal guarantees Kintzler $10MM over a two-year term, Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports reports (Twitter link), and could reach $16MM in value. But the way it operates is through competing 2019 options, as Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (Twitter link), Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com, and Rosenthal (via Twitter) explain. Kintzler will receive a $5MM salary for the upcoming season. The Nationals can elect to exercise a $10MM club option for the 2019 campaign. If that is declined, then Kintzler will get to decide between a $5MM player option and a return to the open market. At this point it is not clear whether the extra $1MM of possible contract value comes from, but it could be an escalator or incentive bonus of some kind.

Kintzler, 33, pitched 26 innings for the Nationals last season after being acquired from the Twins in exchange for Tyler Watson and $500K in international bonus pool money. The righty posted a 3.46 ERA in Washington, chipping in a save for the club.

The Brewers picked Kintzler with the number 1,182 pick in the 2004 draft (40th round). After two seasons in the low minors and a year away from the sport in 2006, he eventually ended up playing independent ball until Milwaukee offered him a new minor league contract in 2009. Kintzler climbed quickly through the ranks this time and made his MLB debut the following year. He pitched well out of the Brewers’ bullpen from his sophomore season on; his ERA with the club never climbed above 3.78 from 2011-2014.

After an injury ended his 2015 season, Kintzler was forced to settle for a minor league deal with the Twins the following winter. He became the team’s closer almost immediately and has posted impressive results ever since.

Kintzler is a fascinating case study; the right-hander has vastly outperformed his ERA estimators over the past two seasons. Furthermore, across 2016-2017 he has the 14th-highest ground ball rate among qualified relievers, and the second-lowest strikeout rate. It’s clear Kintzler’s success is built upon an ability to limit hard contact while generating ground balls. He’ll slot in behind Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson, reuniting the Nats’ late-inning crew from last year’s playoff run.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Logan Morrison

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After six seasons of largely pedestrian play at the major league level, Logan Morrison enjoyed a huge power breakout in 2017. As he enters the free agent market, he’ll hope teams are willing to believe his newfound success at the plate is sustainable.

Pros/Strengths

Prior to this past season, few would have believed a prediction that “LoMo” would hit as many home runs as a healthy Edwin Encarnacion. Fast forward to October, and those two sat tied for fifth among the American League’s home run leaders (along with Justin Smoak and Mike Moustakas). The Rays first baseman also finished fifth in ISO in the AL.

Morrison’s power breakout came during a season in which he made adjustments to his swing, helping him hit more balls in the air. “Valuing… launch angle and all that stuff — has helped me out a lot,” he said to Fangraphs’ David Laurila back in August. Whatever adjustments Morrison made, they worked like a charm. His fly ball rate skyrocketed from 34.7% to 46.2%; that amounts to a whopping 33% increase in fly balls over last season.

Combined with a slight increase in hard contact, Morrison’s ground ball/fly ball profile quickly went from being one of his biggest weaknesses to his clear biggest strength as a hitter. His HR/FB ratio climbed to 22.5%, up from just 15.2% the year prior. The result was a whopping 38 homers; 15 more than his previous career high back in 2011.

Morrison became more selective this past season, too. His previous career-high walk rate was 10.3%, but the first baseman blew past that total to reach 13.5% this season. And although he has a bit of a platoon split in the power department, LoMo actually walks about as often against lefties as he does against righties. All told, his OBP at season’s end was a respectable .353.

Cons/Weaknesses

Morrison’s most significant weakness is his contact ability. The lefty-hitter whiffs in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances (24.8%), giving him the 20th-highest strikeout rate among 144 qualified hitters. While he doesn’t often swing at bad pitches, he swings and misses a lot; Morrison’s 73.7% contact rate ranks in the bottom 20th percentile in MLB. The above figures are both downgrades from recent seasons, and clearly demonstrate the double-edged sword of his newfound “swing hard in case you hit it” approach.

LoMo’s suitors can’t count on him for much in the way of defense, either. Fangraphs has rated him as being well below average in every season of his major league career. It’s worth noting, however, that UZR/150 and DRS both pegged him as an ever-so-slightly above average first baseman in 2017 after years of being down on his work, so perhaps there’s not much to worry about.

But above any of that, it would be irresponsible not to consider the risk that Morrison might fail to replicate his 2017 success. Based on his change in approach at the plate it’s certainly possible he’ll sustain this level of production, some might even say probable. Still, it can’t be overlooked that he’s played below replacement level in three of his eight major league seasons, despite the pedigree he carried as a prospect. In fact, his previous career high in fWAR was only 1.1, which isn’t even a league-average performance. There’s always a chance that what looks like a breakout season could end up simply being an outlier, and if Morrison is paid for his 2017 power output, regression to his previous self would make his contract look terrible in retrospect.

Background

Justis Logan Morrison was born in Kansas City, Missouri. His father served in the coast guard, so Morrison traveled a lot during his younger years. He attended Northshore High School in Slidell, Louisiana, and was selected by the then-Florida Marlins after his senior year in 2005. Though he decided to attend community college, he ultimately ended up signing with the Marlins prior to the 2006 draft.

Over the next four years, Morrison climbed steadily throughout the minor leagues. He ranked 20th on Baseball America’s top prospects list prior to the 2010 season; a year in which he ultimately made his major league debut and hit .283/.390/.477. On December 11th, 2013 he was traded to the Mariners in exchange for reliever Carter Capps. Morrison remained in Seattle until November 5th, 2015 when the Rays acquired him in a three-for-three swap.

Market

First basemen haven’t exactly been flying off the shelves this winter, but Morrison got a bit of bad news recently when the Red Sox re-signed Mitch Moreland to a two-year, $13MM deal. Boston reportedly met with Morrison’s representatives earlier this offseason; the organization had one of the strongest needs at first base among MLB teams (and one of baseball’s largest budgets as a means to fill it).

On the other hand, the Phillies’ three-year, $60MM agreement with Carlos Santana may actually be good news for Morrison’s market. Philadelphia was never seen as a strong candidate to sign the former Rays slugger, or really a first baseman in general; Rhys Hoskins seemed likely to open the season at first for the club, who will now be pushed to the outfield. Before he signed the offseason’s largest contract thus far, Santana was drawing strong interest from at least ten different teams within the past month, and those teams may now turn their attention to Morrison. He’s the best first baseman left on the shelves who doesn’t come with a nine-figure price tag.

The first base market is still crowded. Eric Hosmer, MLBTR’s third-ranked free agent, remains on the board as the most attractive option at the position. Yonder Alonso comes with a somewhat similar offensive profile, and could compete for attention from Morrison’s potential suitors. Lucas Duda, Mark Reynolds and Adam Lind are still hanging around in the bargain bin. Jose Abreu of the White Sox could still be traded, too.

Morrison has been connected to the Angels, who have already made a flurry of moves this offseason to improve their shot at a 2018 AL West pennant. It makes sense to think they could continue to explore signing him. The Rockies and Indians are both firmly in the market for a first baseman, while the Mariners, Astros and a reunion with the Rays all make some level of sense.

Expected Contract

The situation for Morrison doesn’t look much better or worse than it did at the outset of this offseason. The elimination of the Red Sox as a potential suitor hurts, but the average annual value of the contract given to Santana could work in LoMo’s favor during contract negotiations. All told, I think MLBTR’s original prediction of $36MM over a three-year term holds up well to this point.

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

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