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Quick Hits: Freeman, LeVangie, NPB/KBO, Aces

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Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman feels great about the strength of his left wrist; strength he believes he lacked at the end of last season. Mark Bowman of MLB.com wrote a detailed article that includes plenty of confident words from Freeman, who told reporters he began hitting earlier than he usually does, and even took batting practice in 25-degree whether just to see if he experienced any pain. “I have had zero problems.” Freeman said. “Everything feels great and everything feels strong.” Though he doesn’t regret coming back early after being hit by a pitch in May, Freeman experienced some frustration when his wrist fatigued during August and September. Notably, the two-time All-Star also had Lasik surgery to help alleviate some eye irritation issues he experienced while wearing contact lenses. Freeman also expressed his excitement to see top prospect Ronald Acuna arrive at the MLB level.

Some other interesting items from around MLB as we near the end of January…

  • Count Rick Porcello among those in the Red Sox organization who are excited about working with new pitching coach Dana LeVangie. A piece by Tim Britton of the Providence Journal gives some insight into a phone call between the two earlier in the offseason. “A couple of days after he got the pitching coach job, he called me and we talked for an hour on things he had mapped out for me coming into the season that I need to work on and get better with,” Porcello told reporters last week. Indeed, it seems as though relievers Joe Kelly and Craig Kimbrel have already had a great experience working with him during his time as the team’s bullpen coach.  As for LeVangie, he says his time as the Red Sox’ bullpen catcher allowed him to get a feel for movement and spin rate of pitches, as well as identify specifics of a pitcher’s strengths and weaknesses.
  • The pursuit of financial security causes a handful of players to give up MLB 40-man roster spots every year in order to pursue opportunities in the NPB and the KBO, writes Kyle Glaser of Baseball America. Glaser tells the short version of Seth Frankoff’s story, though he’s just one of more than 100 ex-major or minor leaguers who played in Asian baseball leagues in 2017. While minor-league players on a 40-man roster earn just over $40K per year, players can make nearly 20 times that amount playing overseas. Other benefits of playing in the NPB and KBO include luxury apartments for foreign players, exceedingly high energy levels from people in the crowd, and a potential path back to the majors if they can improve their skill sets.
  • Zach Crizer of MLB.com lists right-handers Danny Salazar (Indians) and Jake Odorizzi (Rays), and left-hander Ariel Miranda (Mariners) as pitchers with the potential to reach “ace” status in 2018. Crizer uses some incredibly specific stats to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of these three pitchers, showing a potential path to a breakout for each one. The piece includes videos and heat maps as well; it’s an intriguing read, particularly considering that Salazar and Odorizzi have been mentioned in trade rumors.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/28/18

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We’ll use this post to keep track of today’s smaller-scale MiLB transactions…

  • The Cubs have signed first base/outfield type Efren Navarro to a minors deal, Anthony Fenech of Baseball America tweets. He’ll also receive a spring training invite. The Angels originally drafted Navarro in the 50th round of the 2007 draft, but his most recent MLB action came with the Tigers last season. During that campaign, he hit .230/.319/.377 while striking out a whopping 30.4% of the time across 69 plate appearances. If there’s any reason for optimism regarding Navarro, it stems from his 11.6% walk rate last season, which is a considerable improvement upon that during his time with the Angels (around 8%). The 31-year-old has also spent time in the upper minors of the Cardinals’ and Mariners’ farm systems.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Mets, Domingo, Nationals, Kipnis

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Here are some of the latest hot stove whisperings overheard by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, detailed in his latest column (insider subscription required and highly recommended)…

  • The Mets are “weighing” four players as potential solutions to their need at second and/or third base. They’re interested in free agents Eduardo Nunez, Todd Frazier and former Met Neil Walker, while also exploring the possibility of adding Josh Harrison via trade. The latter would require the Amazins to fork over young outfielder Brandon Nimmo, according to Rosenthal’s sources. Of course, the team has all of Yoenis Cespedes, Jay Bruce and Michael Conforto under control for at least the next three seasons, and Rosenthal posits that they shouldn’t cling too tightly to a fourth outfielder if trading him could help improve their chances in 2018. Furthermore, pivoting to Walker could “spark justifiable criticism” that the Mets are reassembling a losing team; they’ve already re-signed Jose Reyes and Bruce.
  • Trade speculation surrounding Brewers outfielder Domingo Santana has spiked ever since the team acquired Christian Yelich and signed Lorenzo Cain just minutes later. But although he slugged 30 homers last season and is just 25 years of age, his trade value may not be as high as one might think. Rosenthal quotes rival executives saying that Santana is “a bad defender” and “not a winning player.” Those comments come off a bit extreme, but it’s worth noting that he struck out in nearly 30% of his plate appearances last season while being worth -5 Defensive Runs Saved in the outfield.
  • While it’s been oft-reported that Nationals GM Mike Rizzo isn’t willing to part with top prospect Victor Robles in a trade, Rosenthal suggests that the club could be willing to give up Michael Taylor if his involvement in a deal would help the club net Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto. On the other hand, some officials in the organization aren’t keen on giving up a player who’s a fairly safe option in the outfield while Adam Eaton is coming off a significant surgery and Bryce Harper is set to become a free agent next winter.
  • The Yankees reportedly showed some interest in Indians second baseman Jason Kipnis at some point this offseason. However, that interest has apparently cooled of late. While his contribution towards the luxury tax threshold isn’t significant ($8.75MM per season), his actual remaining salary ($30.5MM guaranteed over two years) might be considered somewhat of a risk for a bounce-back candidate; one rival executive says he’s worth a shot, but not at that price. The 30-year-old Kipnis spent significant time on the DL last season with shoulder and hamstring injuries, and hit just .232/.291/.414 last season when healthy.

Reds Notes: Garrett, Relievers, Rebuild

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Following a hip surgery and successful rehab, Reds left-hander Amir Garrett feels optimistic about the 2018 season, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports. The sophomore is ready to put a nightmarish 2017 behind him. “I will re-establish myself again and basically start over from the beginning in spring,” says Garret. “It’s a clean slate, 2018. 2017 is behind me. I have a book and that page isn’t even in there.” Garrett added that he feels stronger and has even shed ten pounds. While the 25-year-old southpaw got off to a hot start last year, his 7.39 ERA and 5.09 BB/9 at season’s end look disastrous. Garrett claims he’s happy that he had a rough year, as he had “never really had any struggles and adversity” prior to that.

More news out of Cincinnati…

  • In light of a slow free agent market, the Reds are looking to add a player, says GM Dick Williams (hat tip to Sheldon). That player is likely to be a reliever, however, which seemingly closes the door on any notion that a rebuilding Cincinnati ballclub might be in on the market’s remaining position players and rotation candidates. Thus far, the only contract the Reds have given out this offseason is a two-year, $4.5MM guarantee to right-handed reliever Jared Hughes. According to our 2017-2018 free agent list, over 40 MLB relievers remain available on the free agent market.
  • Although Cincinnati obviously isn’t expected to compete for a playoff spot, the 2018 season will prove a crucial one for the franchise’s rebuild, says Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Reds fans have watched the rival Brewers undergo a notoriously short rebuild while they’ve had to endure four consecutive losing seasons already. “We’ve struggled to be competitive since the second half of 2014,” manager Bryan Price told reporters at the Reds Caravan on Thursday. “That’s a fair amount of time to ask our fan base to wait. I think they’re going to see a lot of improvement as far as wins and losses. They need to see that.” Buchanan does cite some reasons for optimism, including a much healthier pitching staff that could take a step forward, the rising stardom of Eugenio Suarez and the potential for top prospect Nick Senzel to make the big league roster at some point this season. Interestingly, he also notes that the Reds were apparently in on Christian Yelich early on, but backed off quickly when they learned that they’d need to part with either Senzel or Hunter Greene “just to start”.

Finding A Catcher For The Nationals

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As things stand right now, the Nationals are clear favorites to win the NL East pennant once again in 2018. Fangraphs projects that their current roster would win about 91 games in the coming season, and sees all four of its division rivals as sub-.500 teams. That’s great for the Nats, but likely doesn’t mean much to its fan base at this point, who have seen their home team clinch the division in four of the past six seasons (and the NL’s best record in two of them) only to lose in the NLDS. For a team that’s set to lose Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy and Gio Gonzalez to free agency next winter, there seems to be some pressure to push for a World Series Title while they still have the pieces to do so.

While the overall look of Washington’s roster is fantastic, they have a gaping hole at the catcher position, as MLBTR’s own Jeff Todd examined back in October. The situation remains the same; Matt Wieters performed below replacement level in 2017, and at this point he can’t be counted on to provide much value. Pedro Severino hasn’t yet done anything to convince the club that he’s ready to produce against big-league pitching. By finding a catching upgrade, the team could improve its lineup considerably and thereby improve its chances to make a deep postseason run. That being said, the market has shifted a bit since Todd’s initial assessment.

First off, it’s somewhat surprising that the Nationals haven’t addressed their need already. It’s been clear since the beginning of the offseason. In addition to our own post on the matter, the baseball community has seen Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs examine the situation in detail back at the beginning of December.

Of course, it’s not exactly a quick-fix situation. The best catching option on the market at the outset of the winter was Jonathan Lucroy, who isn’t without his own set of question marks. Welington Castillo was scooped up by the White Sox by beginning of December, taking away another potential fit. And it’s not as though MLB teams will freely trade talented catchers; a premium position comes at a premium rate. Acquiring a catcher on the trade market without diminishing some other area of the major league roster would be a difficult task to accomplish.

The Nationals have been connected to a few players throughout the offseason already, but they’ve got fairly limited resources to make such an acquisition. They’re already above the luxury tax threshold, so an addition on the free market will technically cost 130% of whatever he signs for; that dramatically reduces the cost-effectiveness of that avenue. And the team seems likely to hang onto top prospects Victor Robles and Juan Soto due to their immense values. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the options available…

Free Agents:

Jonathan Lucroy: As recently as the first half of last season, Lucroy was one of the top catchers in the game. He posted a .292/.355/.500 slash line with 24 home runs during a 2016 campaign split between the Brewers and Rangers. But his power fell off significantly last season, which led him to put up one of the worst fWAR totals of his career (1.2). Lucroy managed to hit only six homers despite a notoriously homer-happy trend throughout the league and a significant number of plate appearances in Coors Field.

Due to his steep offensive drop-off and an equally stark decline in pitch-framing skills, Lucroy will probably only require a one- or two-year contract. But he’s no guarantee to provide value even on the two-year, $24MM deal that MLBTR predicted for him at the outset of the winter, and it’s not even a certainty that he’ll provide enough of an upgrade over Wieters to justify an eight-figure commitment with a 30% surcharge stemming luxury tax considerations.

Alex Avila: The soon-to-be 31-year-old Avila started off hot with the Tigers last year, but cooled down after being traded to the Cubs midseason. Still, he maintained a .369 on-base across 112 plate appearances even after the trade. The Nats have already been connected to Avila this offseason. He could be had at very low price, and would therefore be a low-risk signing for the club.

The biggest issue with entertaining Avila as a serious option is the fact that he probably can’t be counted upon to take a significant workload behind the plate. The veteran hasn’t caught more than 650 innings in any of the past three seasons, meaning he might not provide the type of upgrade the Nationals need.

Trade Options

J.T. Realmuto: As Todd pointed out three months ago, this is a fairly obvious match. The fit only became stronger in theory when the Marlins sold off Giancarlo Stanton, then Dee Gordon, later Marcell Ozuna and most recently Christian Yelich. As things stand at the present moment, the Nationals are said to be the organization that is “most heavily engaged” in talks with Miami concerning their catcher. While their reported unwillingness to include Robles or Soto would seem a significant roadblock on the surface, it’s looking as though the Fish might just be willing to settle for a package comprised of other assets.

Yasmani Grandal: If the 2017 playoffs are to be seen as any indication, Austin Barnes has usurped the starting job from Grandal, leaving the veteran switch-hitter destined to serve in a backup role for 2018. He’s set to earn $7.9MM after avoiding arbitration with the Dodgers, and will become a free agent following the season. The 2010 first-rounder has averaged over 2.5 fWAR across the past three seasons, meaning he could prove an excellent upgrade for the Nats at a far cheaper cost than someone like Realmuto.

Yan Gomes/Roberto Perez: The two Tribe backstops have been steady if unimpressive in recent years, and each can be controlled for at least three more seasons. Both are stellar defensive players with penchants for throwing out a remarkable percentage of opposing base-stealers, and each would be a clear upgrade over Wieters. Trading either player to the Nationals would pave the way for top prospect Francisco Mejia to crack the big league roster, though the Indians may perhaps prefer to hold him at Triple-A for a while due to service time considerations and/or need for further seasoning.

Francisco Mejia: Mejia gets his own paragraph due to the considerably different circumstances surrounding his hypothetical trade candidacy. Being that he’s blocked by Gomes and Perez at the MLB level, the Tribe could perhaps be willing to part with him. The logic of this match declines from there, however, as it’s difficult to imagine what the Nationals could (or would) possibly offer to improve Cleveland’s shot at a World Series title in 2018.

James McCann: The rebuilding Tigers don’t seem likely to be competitive in any of the next three seasons, meaning McCann will probably be on the move sooner or later. Though he’s impressive defensively, McCann’s bat has proved below-average across 1,201 big league plate appearances. That could (in theory) make him more affordable than other trade options while still offering an upgrade over Washington’s in-house options.

 

White Sox Sign Xavier Cedeno to Minor-League Deal

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9:17pm: A tweet from Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports reveals that Cedeno’s contract comes with a spring training invite, as one may have expected. He stands to earn $1.05MM if he breaks camp with the big league club.

8:21pm: The White Sox have agreed to terms on a minor-league pact with left-hander Xavier Cedeno, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation reports via a tweet.

The 31-year-old Cedeno has pitched at the major-league level in each of the past seven seasons. After he missed nearly all of 2017 due to a forearm injury suffered in April, the Rays elected to non-tender Cedeno rather than pay him a 2018 arbitration salary (he made $1.3MM in 2017). That’s hardly surprising considering Tampa Bay’s interest in trimming payroll this winter.

For his career, the southpaw owns a 3.98 ERA out of the bullpens of the Astros, Nationals and Rays. While he’s been a below average major-leaguer in terms of WPA (-0.85), his career 8.85 K/9 and 3.39 BB/9 suggest he could be a viable bullpen piece for his new club. That outlook only gets brighter when considering he’s a respectable lefty specialist; Cedeno has faced a left-handed hitter 320 times over the course of his MLB tenure, and they’ve batted a paltry .220/.286/.299 against him.

[Related: Updated Chicago White Sox Depth Chart]

It seems likely that the Puerto Rican native can earn himself a role in the White Sox bullpen. Outside of the recently-acquired Luis Avilan, the Southsiders don’t have much in the way of viable left-handed options for their relief corps.

Cedeno was originally a 31st-round selection of the Rockies back in 2004. He pitched exclusively as a starter up through the end of the 2008 season, when he reached the Double-A level for the first time. However, following a demotion to the Rockies’ High-A affiliate, Cedeno transitioned to a relief role. Though the Astros tried giving him another chance to start in 2011, his performance at the Double-A level that season wasn’t good enough to warrant a permanent shift back to the rotation. He’s pitched exclusively as a reliever since his MLB debut with Houston later that year.

 

NL East Notes: Degrom, Lagares, Marlins

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The Mets attempted to work out a long-term contract extension with talented right-hander Jacob deGrom this offseason, Mike Puma of the New York Post writes. However, those talks apparently never gained much traction. At this point, it appears as though deGrom expects to test the open market after his remaining three arbitration years are up. “As of right now, it looks like it’s going to be a year-to-year thing,” deGrom told reporters on Thursday. “I have got this year and two more, so I am still going to be here a while. If they want to extend past that, I guess we’ll see where it goes.” While those comments still imply that deGrom is keeping an open mind, the nature of his words seem to cast doubt on any chance of him giving the Mets some of his free agent years in advance the 2020-2021 offseason. He avoided arbitration this offseason by agreeing to a one-year, $7.4MM deal for 2018. The 29-year-old righty reached the 200-inning threshold for the first time in 2017 while pitching to a 3.53 ERA and 3.23 xFIP. During his four major league seasons, deGrom has been worth an average of over 4 fWAR. Since reaching the majors in 2013 (and ultimately winning the NL Rookie of the Year Award), he’s posted a sparkling 2.98 ERA, having struck out 9.67 batters per nine innings while walking just 2.33.

Other notable items from around the NL East…

  • Elsewhere in the Big Apple, Mets center fielder Juan Lagares has faith in his newly-overhauled swing, Puma writes in a separate piece. Lagares reportedly spent ten days in California with Craig Wallenbrock, a well-known hitting coach. His new approach (in line with a recent trend around the league) involves an objective to hit the ball in the air more often. “The last couple of years I have hit the ball super hard, but on the ground, so I am just trying to get it a little more in the air,” he says. While it’s certainly true that Lagares’ past approach has elicited a far greater percentage of ground balls (50.8) than fly balls (28.8), his claim that he’s hit the ball “super hard” seems a bit far-fetched. Via Fangraphs, the soon-to-be 29-year-old owns a hard contact rate of just 27.5% for his career, and his figure from last season (29.6%) was just north of that.
  • A small handful of current and former Marlins front office executives are set to run marathons in seven consecutive days on seven different continents, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports. The “183.4-mile racing odyssey,” as Jackson calls it, will be led by Jeff Conine; he’ll be joined by ex-Marlins-president David Samson and ex-broadcasting-executive P.J. Loyello, along with two current Miami officials and 11 other people in a fascinating enterprise that will benefit 11 charities at the expense of an immense physical toll on their bodies. “You can’t pass up a life experience like this. I’ll never have the opportunity to do something like this ever again,” Conine offered on the subject. “Why not?”

AL East Notes: Orioles, Donaldson, Rays

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There’s no official decision yet regarding where Manny Machado will play in 2018, but one could come as soon as this weekend. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com provides some insight into Orioles manager Buck Showalter’s thought process in determining the young star’s position. Showalter has spoken with both Machado and Tim Beckham in regards to Baltimore’s infield alignment, and though nothing is definite yet, Kubatko seems to have confidence that the O’s will grant Machado’s wishes to move him to shortstop this coming season, which would in turn push Beckham to third base or into a super utility role. Showalter also offers some very honest evaluations of Mike Moustakas as well as the price points of some of the high-end free agent pitchers on the market. In addition, he delves into Baltimore’s catcher situation.

A few other notes out of the AL East…

  • Josh Donaldson told reporters today that, to his knowledge, his agent has not been engaged with the Blue Jays regarding a potential contract extension (hat tip to Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com). This doesn’t necessarily eliminate the possibility that extension talks have taken place, but it certainly casts doubt on it. Donaldson has been the third most valuable player in baseball by fWAR (21.4) since he was traded to Toronto prior to the 2015 season, Though he started off slowly last season, he still managed an excellent .270/.385/.559 batting line for the campaign while hitting 33 homers. He’d be one of the marquee free agents of an impressive 2018, though the fact that he’ll be nearly 33 by the beginning of November will detract from his value in comparison with players like Bryce Harper and Machado.
  • Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times points out that the Rays are in a position to enter 2018 with both a higher payroll than last season and less talent on the roster overall. Of course, there’s still plenty of time for the team to make more moves. Topkin cites the lack of activity industry wide as a factor that has “paralyzed” the organization, but believes that once the “dam finally breaks,” they’ll have a lot of things to address. He quotes GM Erik Neander, who describes the team’s to do list as similar to what it was at the outset of the offseason. Topkin mentions a number of candidates who could possibly be traded in order to cut payroll for the team, including closer Alex Colome and the recently-acquired Denard Span. From my own standpoint, it’s not unfair to wonder whether Tampa Bay has any chance to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox as things stand now, let alone if the team continues to make cuts to a payroll that’s one of the lowest in baseball. That can only increase the trade speculation surrounding Chris Archer, Colome, and others on the roster.

Red Sox Notes: Roster, Swihart, Pomeranz, Protective Netting

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Recent comments from Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowski hint that the front office would feel confident going into the 2017 season with the pieces they have in the fold right now. But Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston isn’t convinced at all. In a candid editorial, Drellich blasts Dombrowski for his supposed comfort with the current roster. “Who really believes this?” Drellich writes. “Who really believes the Red Sox could proceed into the season comfortably without some external improvement? You’re in a market competing with the Patriots, a division with the Yankees, and a league with the Astros, and this is what you’re bringing to the table?” He seems particularly miffed by a comment that the team “could stay with anybody”; Drellich rejects such logic by stating that the team’s goal should not be to “stay” with other teams, but rather to be outright better.

Tim Britton of the Providence Journal agrees with Drellich’s stance in his own piece, pointing out the lack of a middle-of-the-order slugger in Boston’s lineup. Britton also exposes Dombrowski’s supposed level of comfort by pulling a quote of his from the day after the club’s ALDS loss to Houston. “I didn’t supply the players that would give us enough runs. We do need that,” Dombrowski said at that time. Indeed, it doesn’t seem as though he’s done anything to follow through on that so far this winter. The club is, of course, still engaged in discussions with free agent slugger J.D. Martinez, and for his part, Drellich believes a deal will get done. But while Dombrowski seems comfortable taking his time in negotiations with Martinez (waiting for “the ice to melt,” in his own words), one has to wonder what kind of backlash he’ll face in the harsh Boston media if another team swoops in and inks the righty-hitter to a deal first.

A few other items out of Boston…

  • It’s evident that Blake Swihart has thus far been unable to live up to his top prospect billing; he’s been unable to stick at catcher due to poor defense, and his lifetime .270/.330/.380 batting line at the MLB level leaves plenty to be desired. But he’ll enter spring training without any minor league options remaining, and the Sox are intent on finding a spot for him on the roster, according to a tweet from Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe. Drellich adds in his own tweet that Swihart “finally feels healthy,” and is confident in his ability to play all nine positions on the diamond (though there’s obvious reason for skepticism about the latter point). Swihart was ranked as Boston’s consensus number one prospect following a 2014 season during which he hit .300/.353/.487 at the Double-A level, though it should be noted that he struggled to get on base following a promotion to Triple-A.
  • Drellich also tweets that although left-hander Drew Pomeranz is open to a long-term extension with the Red Sox, the two sides have not discussed one to date. The 29-year-old southpaw made 32 starts for Boston in 2017, pitching 173 2/3 innings of 3.32 ERA baseball. He’s set to become a free agent at the end of the season.
  • The Red Sox have announced that they’ll be expanding their protective netting in 2018. The press release describes the expansion as follows: “The new netting system will extend from Field Box Section 79 to Field Box Section 9, expanded from an area previously covering Field Box Section 61 to Field Box Section 29. It will be positioned with the same consistent height as the existing system, which stands at 12 feet, 8 inches above the playing field.” As Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports notes, Boston will join the Yankees and Blue Jays as teams who have recently expanded their netting in order to improve fan safety.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/20/18

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We’ll keep track of today’s minor moves in this post…

  • The Indians have inked a minors pact with lefty reliever Adam Wilk, who’ll receive an invite to spring training. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that Wilk stands to make $560K if he makes the opening day roster, and can opt out of his contract if he doesn’t. The 30-year-old pitched 14 MLB innings last season with the Mets and Twins; he’s also played for the Tigers and Angels during his big-league career. Wilk averages just 88 MPH on his fastball, but boasts a five-pitch repertoire. He throws a four-seamer, sinker, slider, curve and change up; each makes up at least 10% of his pitch selection. For his career, the southpaw has a 7.36 ERA. Right-handed batters have hit .331/.380/.664 against him.

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