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Marlins Notes: Realmuto, Chen, Ziegler, Outfield, Starlin

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Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto told reporters today that he’s had multiple conversations with president of baseball operations Michael Hill and manager Don Mattingly about whether or not he’ll be traded, but he hasn’t gotten a firm answer one way or the other (hat tip to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald). He also said that he has not spoken with part-owner Derek Jeter directly about the subject. That Realmuto hasn’t gotten a firm answer is entirely unsurprising; he’s a valuable trade asset, and the team can’t guarantee that anyone will rise to meet their asking price. They’ve been fielding offers on him for quite some time, and the countdown to opening day has now dwindled to under two months. Realmuto, of course, has been vocal throughout the offseason in his desire to be traded to another club. It was reported that the backstop requested a trade out Miami as early as mid-December, at which point the Fish had already shipped out Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna. Recent comments from his agent indicate that his stance hasn’t changed, and an arbitration defeat at Miami’s hands certainly won’t do anything to budge that stance.

A few other items out of Miami…

  • Hill says that lefty Wei-Yin Chen has been cleared to throw, and projects to be in the Marlins’ rotation (h/t Joe Frisaro of MLB.com). Whether or not he’ll be ready for the start of the season is uncertain. The 32-year-old Chen missed the bulk of last season due to recurring elbow issues, and is owed $60MM through the 2020 season. If he can remain healthy, he’ll likely slot in as the number two starter behind Dan Straily.
  • Hill also mentioned that Brad Ziegler is the team’s closer headed into spring training camp. Ziegler took over as the team’s closer last season following a trade of A.J. Ramos to the Mets, saving ten games for the club. His overall performance, however, left much to be desired; the soft-tosser’s 4.79 ERA isn’t indicative of a high-leverage reliever, and his 4.98 K/9 was the fourth-lowest among MLB relievers with at least 30 innings pitched. However, having Ziegler in a ninth-inning role will prevent young strikeout artists Kyle Barraclough and Drew Steckenrider from accruing saves that would otherwise boost their future arbitration raises.
  • Mattingly has Derek Dietrich “penciled in” as the starting left fielder (h/t Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald). The rest of the outfield picture, however, is “wide open.” The Marlins, of course, traded their entire starting outfield from last season; Stanton, Ozuna and Christian Yelich will all suit up for other clubs, leaving the team with a significant void to fill. Count recent outfield acquisitions Lewis Brinson and Magneuris Sierra among the players who will compete for those jobs in camp.
  • Despite trade speculation earlier in the offseason, infielder Starlin Castro says he expects to be with the club come opening day (hat tip again to Jackson). The former Yankee adds that he is “happy to be here,” and is not looking to be traded now. Castro figures to open the season as the team’s second baseman. He put up a .300/.338/.454 slash line while playing for New York last season (good for a 110 wRC+), and chipped in a pair of stolen bases.

Quick Hits: Asia Prospects, Former Prospects, DL Usage

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Fangraphs analysis is as sharp and poignant as ever, providing deep looks into a number of interesting subjects over the past few days. Among those pieces is one by Sung Min Kim, who offers detailed scouting reports on six MLB prospects currently playing in Asia. The list is limited to players who would be available to leave Asia in the next three years; players on the list have also either expressed interest in coming to MLB or not publicly refuted the possibility. Among these six players is Yusei Kikuchi, a lefty fireballer who has openly expressed a strong desire to play in MLB (Kim compares him to Patrick Corbin). Another interesting name on the list is outfielder Po-Jung Wang of the Chinese Professional Baseball League; he’s won two MVPs and put up a .407/.491/.700 slash line in the CPBL. Anyone interested in tracking baseball players who might transition from Asia leagues to MLB should certainly give this list a thorough read.

A couple of other interesting articles from Fangraphs…

  • Eric Longenhagen did some scouting of his own for his latest piece, though he focused on players who have already cracked a major-league roster. Specifically, Longenhagen has notes on twelve players who have already graduated from prospect status but have somewhat uncertain futures and only a small sample size of MLB playing time to draw from. Astros righty Francis Martes, for example, is described as a player who is “athletic enough to merit command projection in the minors, but we haven’t seen him need to work efficiently for a while because he was bullpen’d last year.” New Cardinals addition Miles Mikolas is said to have improved command after a stint in Japan, and currently profiles as a solid fourth starter. The list has some interesting names who haven’t been frequently covered, and can provide avid fans with a few intriguing storylines to follow for the coming season.
  • Many aspects of MLB gameplay are changing at a rapid pace. One of the more extreme examples is DL usage, which Travis Sawchik covered recently. Last year’s switch from a 15-day DL to a 10-day DL resulted in a record number of DL stints, as predicted. Clubs like the Dodgers used it aggressively as a roster manipulation tool, making it “something of a revolving, de facto 26th-man roster spot.” Sawchik expects that we’ll see an increase in the number of DL stints once again next year. He also notes that even with the five-day reduction from 15 to 10, there was only a marginal decrease in the total number of days players spent on the DL last season, which perhaps implies that players overall were not very healthy in 2017.

West Notes: A’s, Rangers, Bumgarner

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While it’s been somewhat of a surprise to see some large market teams not spending the way they usually do, this offseason isn’t different from any other for small-market teams like the Athletics. As Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes, low payrolls have long been “modus operandi” for the A’s, and now much of baseball is under fire for following suit. “I can’t speak for other teams, but I know for us, this scenario is not much different than it’s been for a number of years as we push for a new stadium,” Oakland Vice President of Baseball Operations Billy Beane said. He added that the scenario is individual for each team, but for the A’s it comes down to simply not having the resources. While some are accusing MLB clubs of a “race to the bottom,” Slusser notes that youth-centric rebuilds with focus on prospects and the draft helped lead the Royals, Cubs and Astros to World Series titles in the past three seasons. Indeed, Beane said, “I’m sure that’s part of it. Sports is very copycat: Whatever succeeds, people will try.” The Athletics signed Yusmiero Petit to a two-year, $10MM contract this offseason, and also made offers to Brian Duensing and Austin Jackson before they ultimately signed with other clubs. Now, says Slusser, the A’s offseason spending is “essentially done.”

Other notes from teams near the country’s Pacific coast…

  • Evan Grant of SportsDay dives into the questions that the Rangers will need to answer if they choose to implement a six-man rotation this season (or as manager Jeff Banister calls it, a “five-plus-one” rotation). The basic structure: have five starters who pitch regularly, and utilize a sixth pitcher as a swingman to pitch only when necessary to ensure that each pitcher gets five days off between starts. The ultimate hope is that such a configuration will keep all Rangers pitchers fresh and reduce late-season fatigue. “The schedule makes it challenging. Construction of your roster makes it challenging,” said Banister. “There is enough data that tells us there are pitchers who definitely benefit from an extra day’s rest or the routine of being on that five-day rest period or six-day rest period. You can point to ERAs. You can point to velocity. You can point to walk rates go down, strike out rates go up.” There are significant challenges in bringing this idea into reality, however. First, it’s a pretty radical change from what MLB pitchers are used to doing, and what they’ve been trained to do during their entire careers. Second, they’d need to find enough pitchers to make it a viable strategy, and the Rangers’ starting staff has more questions than answers at the moment.
  • Giants GM Bobby Evans says that there haven’t been any contract talks between the club and postseason titan Madison Bumgarner, according to a tweet from John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. Bumgarner has long been the ace of the Giants’ pitching staff. He was drafted by the organization and has never played for another. MadBum’s posted a 3.01 ERA (3.34 xFIP) over the course of his eight-year MLB career with 8.84 K/9 against just 2.04 BB/9. The Giants own a 2019 club option over the towering lefty for a mere $12MM, so they’ll be able to control him through his age-29 campaign before he hits the open market during the 2019-2020 offseason (barring an extension).

Rangers, Bartolo Colon Agree To Minor-League Deal

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SUNDAY, 4:48pm: Colon will have a chance to earn up to $1.25MM in incentives, per Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that the contract has a March 24 opt-out date if Colon has not yet been added to the MLB roster. Meanwhile, Heyman tweeted the breakdown of the incentives package.

4:09pm: The deal comes with a $1.75MM salary if Colon makes Texas’ roster, Grant tweets.

4:47pm: Colon has agreed to a minors deal with the Rangers, according to an announcement from executive vice president of communications John Blake (Twitter link). The pact includes an invitation to spring training.

“Bartolo brings a track record of durability and success in the Major Leagues,” general manager Jon Daniels said (via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, on Twitter). “He pounds the strike zone and provides quality competition for our rotation. Welcome to Texas, Big Sexy!”

9:52am: Colon and the Rangers are “close” to an agreement, Jon Heyman of FanRag tweets.

SATURDAY: The Rangers and 44-year-old right-hander Bartolo Colon are in talks on a minor-league contract, Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com reports. Sanchez adds that there is “momentum”. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com confirms that the two sides are working on a deal, but cautions that “nothing is done yet”.

Since debuting with the Indians in 1997, Colon has seen MLB playing time in 20 seasons. After a handful of successful campaigns in Cleveland, Colon was shipped to the Expos for Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips in what would later become known as one of the most lopsided trades in MLB history. Just a few years later, Colon won the 2005 AL Cy Young award while pitching for the Angels.

In the years following, the righty’s performance fell off for a few seasons due to injuries and ineffectiveness. He failed to top 100 innings in any of the 2006-2009 campaigns, and averaged just half a win above replacement across those seasons. His 5.18 ERA during that span wasn’t indicative of the early-career Colon. He ultimately chose to sit out the 2010 season due to ongoing pains resulting from damage to his rotator cuff, ligaments and tendons. At 36 years of age, it seemed possible his career might have come to an end.

Prior to the 2011 season, however, Colon opted to undergo a somewhat controversial treatment during which his shoulder and elbow were injected with fat and bone marrow stem cells. The right-hander’s velocity shot back up to 95 MPH, and he subsequently enjoyed a bounceback 2011 season with the Yankees in which he posted a 4.00 ERA across 29 appearances (26 starts) for the Bombers. Fangraphs estimated his performance at 2.7 WAR. That success earned Colon a one-year $3MM contract with the Athletics.

Colon went on to post at least 2.4 fWAR in each of the next five seasons, including a 2016 season in which he endearingly became the oldest MLB pitcher to hit his first home run (42 years old). But age seemed to finally catch up with him last season across 143 innings with the Braves and Twins, as he posted a 6.48 ERA that ranked second-worst among MLB pitchers to throw at least 100 innings. His 5.60 K/9 also ranked in the bottom five.

It remains to be seen if Colon, who’ll turn 45 in May, has anything left in the tank. But the two sides end up reaching a deal, he can compete for the fifth spot in the Rangers’ rotation behind Cole Hamels, Matt Moore, Doug Fister and Mike Minor.

Quick Hits: Van Hekken, Free Agent Spending, Rockies

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38-year-old former Tigers starter Andy Van Hekken is attempting to earn a job with an MLB club, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press writes. Anyone calling it a comeback attempt should note this bit of context: Van Hekken hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2002 and only has five career starts at that level. Still, the Holland native is reportedly training back in his home county, and a late-thirties push for MLB has been in his plans for a while. “I’ve been thinking about it over the last few years,” he said. “I always wanted to come back and give it another try to get back to the big leagues and see if I could do it. I would love an opportunity and hopefully there will be one.” As Fenech aptly points out, Van Hekken’s timing couldn’t be worse… there are well over a hundred free agents who have yet to sign during what has been a phenomenally slow hot stove season. The left-hander is best known for throwing a complete game shutout against the Indians in his major league debut. He’s mixed a high-80’s fastball with a forkball to great success in Korea during the past half-decade or so, posting solid ground ball and strikeout rates.

Some other items from around the league as we inch closer to spring training…

  • Have fans been conditioned to accept half-hearted attempts at contention? Travis Sawchik attempts to answer this question in a piece for Fangraphs. Sawchik writes that while it’s typically for business owners to take great care in running their businesses efficiently and at a profit, baseball is not a typical business. Fans invest in ballclubs both emotionally and fiscally (with their taxes), so owners have a civic duty to put a competitive product on the field. He references former Tigers owner Mike Illitch, who at times spent irrationally on his club. He even kept a General Motors advertisement above the center field batter’s eye when the company could no longer afford it, in similar spirit of upholding the city’s identity. Sawchik then turns his focus to Nutting, who has gutted the club’s core to slash payroll by $20MM this season without paying for a single free agent. Sawchik suspects that the club could cover its current payroll without selling a single ticket, and points out its $50MM BAMtech payment from Disney (that also hasn’t been reinvested in the team). He posits that fans have been trained to accept the “small-market” excuse for not spending as a reality, when in fact it may not entirely explain a given club’s low payroll.
  • The Rockies have built a contending club in part by betting on its youthful rotation, Daniel Cramer of MLB.com writes. Back in spring training of 2016, GM Jeff Bridich apparently told young right-hander Jeff Hoffman that the club wasn’t seeking any veteran upgrades. Fast forward to today, and the organization hopes to build on a “blossoming pitching culture with the potential for sustained success”. Cramer describes Colorado’s blueprint for pitchers as “a power arm supplemented with a mental confidence to pitch at Coors Field.” For their part, a group consisting of German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, Tyler Chatwood, Jon Gray, Jeff Hoffman, Antonio Senzatela, Tyler Anderson and Chad Bettis combined for 11.8 fWAR last season (good for 11th in the majors), and that entire group minus Chatwood is set to return for 2018.

Latest On Brewers’ Search For A Starter

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Much has been made of the reports that the Brewers made a contract offer to Yu Darvish about two weeks ago. A quote from ownership stating that GM David Stearns is “working on” adding another pitcher has only added fuel to that fire. But when asked Saturday if there’s been any progress in that search, Stearns metaphorically threw a giant bucket of cold water on those hot stove rumors. “We continue to have discussions on a variety of fronts,” he said (via Tom Haudricort of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel). “But at this point I anticipate going (to spring training) with our current group.”

If the Brewers did make a proposal to Darvish, Haudricort notes, it wasn’t enough to lead to a deal. Additionally, the team has not confirmed any reports that they might sign Darvish, who is believed to be seeking a deal in the range of $150-$175MM. Further dampening any Darvish hopes from Milwaukee fans are reports that the right-hander would like to return to one of his previous teams: the Rangers or the Dodgers.

Stearns’ comments also seem to indicate that the club’s recent efforts to trade for Rays right-hander Chris Archer didn’t bear any fruit. It’s a trade scenario that already seemed unlikely in the first place, given that only ten days ago Archer told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that he expects to remain in Tampa Bay to open the season.

It’s not as though Stearns completely closed the door on adding a starter. According to Haudricort, he did express that the club is open to acting “if the right opportunity presents itself.” But he followed that up by saying that the club has a “high level of confidence” in its in-house options.

On the surface, Milwaukee would appear to be one of the MLB teams with the most pressing need for a starter. Beyond Chase Anderson, Zach Davies and the injured Jimmy Nelson (who projects to miss a good portion of the 2018 season), the Brew Crew have a group of low-ceiling starters vying for the remaining spots in the rotation. That group includes Yovani Gallardo, Brent Suter and Jhoulys Chacin. While a rotation comprised of the pitchers above wouldn’t represent a bottom-dwelling cast, it’s curious that the team would make such a strong effort to acquire Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain while failing to improve on the starting pitching front. Of course, it’s worth noting that the Brewers will control both of those outfielders for five full seasons, and they aren’t set to lose any of their most important core players any time soon.

Prior to this news, Milwaukee was thought to be at least an assertive shopper in the free agent pitching market. If they’re indeed prepared to turn up their noses and roll with internal options to open the season, it’d prove bad news for a 2018 free agent pitching class that has yet to see any of its top four candidates come off the board. Teams have yet to show any serious interest in Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn at their current asking prices, and MLB clubs seemingly haven’t gained any traction with even Darvish to this point in the offseason. With just a few weeks until the start of spring training, this development can only further freeze a historically cold MLB hot stove.

Adeiny Hechavarria Wins Arbitration Case Over Rays

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Rays shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria has won his arbitration case against his club, Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports tweets. He’ll earn a $5.9MM salary for the 2018 campaign, which is considerably more than both the $5.35MM that Tampa Bay had filed for and the $5.0MM figure that MLBTR’s Matt Swartz had projected. His arbitration salary comes as a $1.55MM raise in his third trip through the process.

Hechavarria’s raise comes on the heels of a 2017 campaign in which he hit .261/.289/.406 with eight homers and 30 RBI across 348 plate appearances for the Marlins and Rays. Following a month-long stint on the DL due to an oblique strain, the Rays acquired Hechavarria for a pair of minor-leaguers.

The 29-year-old Cuban native is known far more for his glove than he is for his bat. He owns a career wRC+ of just 72, and has gotten on base at just a .291 clip across six major-league seasons. He’s currently seated atop the team’s depth chart at shortstop, though the club will likely give the newly-acquired Christian Arroyo a fair chance to compete for the starting job this spring.

Roberto Osuna Loses Arbitration Case

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Blue Jays closer Roberto Osuna has lost his arbitration case, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports. The right-hander had filed for a $5.8MM payday in his first trip through the arbitration process, but he’ll instead take home the $5.3MM salary that Toronto filed for. That amount represents about a $4.75MM raise in his first arb year, and falls just $300K shy of the $5.6MM figure projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz.

Osuna has shown excellent command of the strike zone over the course of his three MLB seasons, evidenced by his phenomenal 6.15 career K/BB ratio (a figure that ranks third among qualifying relievers from 2015-2017). He’s posted a solid 2.86 ERA during that time, though ERA estimators such as FIP (2.69), xFIP (3.23) and SIERA (2.64) don’t quite agree on his true talent level. Regardless, Osuna is one of the top closers in the game of baseball, and he’ll be rewarded for it this season.

Fellow first-time arb-eligible closer Ken Giles will earn $4.6MM after winning his case. Giles has tossed 36 1/3 more big league innings than Osuna with better run prevention, strikeout and ground ball results. However, the arbitration process values saves heavily, and because Osuna has 95 career saves (30 more than Giles), he’ll out-earn his Houston counterpart by over half a million dollars this season.

Osuna was an international signing of the Blue Jays in 2011. He pitched his way onto the big league roster out of spring training camp in 2015 at the age of 20, and earned his first career save just two and a half months later. He’s been an anchor at the back of the Jays’ bullpen ever since. Barring an extension, he’s set to pitch three more seasons with the team prior to reaching free agency following the 2020 season.

Ken Giles Wins Arbitration Case Over Astros

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Reliever Ken Giles has won his arbitration case against the Astros, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports tweets. The Astros filed at $4.2MM, but Giles will take home the $4.6MM that he and his agent filed for instead. That salary falls $400K shy of the $5MM projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz, and represents a raise of about $4MM in his first trip through the arbitration process.

Though a bad taste may still linger in the mouths of Astros fans due to Giles’ poor postseason performance (11.74 ERA with 5 walks and 3 homers allowed in 7 2/3 innings), the fact remains that Houston’s 27-year-old closer has posted some eye-popping numbers across his first four seasons in the big leagues. Among qualifying relief pitchers, the right-hander ranks 7th in xFIP, 10th in K/9, 13th in ERA, and 16th in Win Probability Added since the start of the 2014 campaign. His 65 saves probably figured into his arbitration win as well.

Giles was drafted by the Phillies back in 2011. The righty made his big-league debut on June 12th of 2014, allowing a home run to the first major-league hitter he faced but striking out the next in a game the Phillies would eventually win over the Padres. Following the 2015 season, the Astros acquired him (along with shortstop Jonathan Arauz) in a trade that brought back former number one overall pick Mark Appel, Vince Velasquez and three others. Since coming to Houston, Giles has struck out nearly 13 batters per nine innings thanks in part to a fastball that’s averaged a whopping 98.3 MPH during that time.

Minor MLB Transactions: 2/3/18

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We’ll use this post to keep track of today’s minor moves…

  • The Rays have added catcher Adam Moore on a minors pact, tweets Jerry Crasnick of ESPN. The 33-year-old will receive an invitation to spring training camp. Moore hit .238/.313/.369 with a 31.4% strikeout rate across 277 plate appearances with the Columbus Clippers (the Indians’ Triple-A affiliate) in what ultimately ended up being his first season without MLB action since 2008. Since being drafted 171st overall by the Mariners in 2006, he’s played in the majors for them and three other clubs: the Royals, Padres and Indians. Moore owns a .197/.237/.303 lifetime slash line and has been worth just over a win below replacement for his career.

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