Kyle Downing | MLB Trade Rumors

Pitching Notes: Bauer, Slegers, McCarthy, Cody

By Kyle Downing | July 14, 2018 at 10:59pm CDT

In a recent podcast with Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer suggested he’d only take one-year deals for the remainder of his career (partially due to the high stakes of a bet with a childhood friend). Although that seems radical and somewhat irresponsible on the surface, Eno Sarris dives into the subject in a piece for The Athletic and discovers that maybe the idea isn’t really all that bad. Although Bauer would be giving up a lot of security, he’d likely earn a significant bump in average annual value. Bauer has never had health issues, so in his case the health risks might not be as severe as other players seeking long-term deals to lock up the most total dollars possible. All in all, Sarris comes to the conclusion that the contract strategy could feasibly benefit Bauer in the long run.

Here are some other pitcher-related notes from around baseball…

The Twins placed righty Aaron Slegers on the disabled list today with shoulder inflammation, and plan to recall rookie Fernando Romero to make a start in his stead. Slegers had a rough go of it in three appearances (two starts) this season, allowing eight earned runs in 12 2/3 innings with just five strikeouts. Romero, on the other hand, has made ten starts this season and turned in a reasonable performance thus far ( 4.38 ERA).
Braves right-hander Brandon McCarthy is rehabbing his knee injury, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports, but oddly enough he’s doing it at his home in Arizona with his own physical therapist. Obviously that’s far from the norm at this point in the season, particularly given Atlanta’s status as a contending team in the NL East. McCarthy came to Atlanta in a financially-motivated trade with the Dodgers, but has barely managed to exceed five innings per start in his tenure with the Braves thus far, and has posted an ugly 4.92 ERA.
Another Rangers prospect has gone down with the dreaded ulnar collateral ligament injury, and will require Tommy John surgery, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. This time, it’s right-hander Kyle Cody, who had been attempting rest and rehab as an alternative to surgery. Cody was shut down for an extended period after experiencing issues during spring training; he’ll now go under the knife and likely be out until the beginning of 2020. The towering 6’7″ hurler was a sixth-round pick of the Rangers back in 2016.

Minor MLB Transactions: 7/14/18

By Kyle Downing | July 14, 2018 at 9:51pm CDT

This post will serve as a way to keep track of today’s minor moves…

The Cardinals have released minor league reliever Arturo Reyes, Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com tweets. Reyes never carried much pedigree as the 1,205 overall pick in the 2013 amateur draft, but he shot up the minor league ranks in his first two years of pro ball, reaching the Triple-A level just over two years after being taken out of Gonzaga University on Washington. He’s dealt with injuries and ineffectiveness since 2015, however, and began the transition to the bullpen last season. His results this year were shockingly poor, as Reyes posted a 6.68 ERA and walked 4.54 batters per nine innings across 33 2/3 relief innings.

Rays Acquire Hoby Milner From Phillies

By Kyle Downing | July 14, 2018 at 8:48pm CDT

The Rays have acquired lefty reliever Hoby Milner from the Phillies in exchange for cash considerations, the club has announced. Milner was designated for assignment by Philadelphia earlier this week. The Rays designated right-hander Ryan Weber for assignment to create roster space for Milner.

One might have thought Milner would have a longer leash with the Phillies after his excellent rookie season with them last year. He managed a 2.01 ERA across 31 1/3 innings in 2017, though with unsightly peripherals including 6.32 K/9 against 4.60 BB/9. Furthermore, he benefited from a likely unsustainable 91.1% strand rate that helped his run prevention totals greatly.

This season, Milner made ten appearances in the majors spanning 4 2/3 innings. He allowed four earned runs, with three of them coming in one appearance. At the Triple-A level in 2018, Milner has outpitched his peripherals much in the same manner as he did last season; he’s managed at 2.39 ERA despite a 4.78 BB/9. Again, that can partially be credited to his 87.7% strand rate. He’ll now serve as depth for the Rays, who have been known for unusual (and effective) bullpen usage this season.

This is the second time that Weber has been designated by the Rays, with the first occasion (back in April) resulting in an outright assignment to Triple-A. Weber has tossed just 5 1/3 MLB innings for Tampa this year, and nine Major League innings total over the last two seasons. A groundball specialist who doesn’t miss many bats, Weber has posted a very strong 2.12 ERA over 241 2/3 career Triple-A innings.

Latest On Manny Machado

By Kyle Downing | July 14, 2018 at 7:49pm CDT

As a whirlwind of rumors continues to surround Manny Machado, suitors for the All-Star seem to fall in and out of the mix by the day, and frontrunners seem to emerge and recede like horses at the racetrack. Last we heard earlier today, the Orioles were beginning to narrow their search, with the Phillies and Brewers among the finalists. But a flurry of whispers have given the situation a slightly different outlook over the past hour. Here’s what we’ve heard…

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that the Dodgers remain in the mix for Machado, while the Brewers and Phillies continue to be in “consistent contact” with the Orioles. The Yankees, however, reportedly seem “less involved”. Rosenthal notes that the situation is hardly predictable considering the politics of Baltimore’s front office at present. Last we heard, the Orioles were targeting Dustin May and Gavin Lux in talks with the Dodgers, neither of whom figured to be available.
Correspondingly, Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports tweets that rival executives believe that the Dodgers will acquire Machado, though the wording of his tweet is somewhat confusing and leaves room for interpretation.
In talks with the Phillies, the Orioles showed some interest in recently-promoted starter Enyel De Los Santos, Jon Heyman of Fancred hears. Unsurprisingly, Philadelphia prefers not to include him (probably in part because he’s now contributing in the majors). Heyman quotes Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports as listing Adonis Medina, Jhailyn Ortiz, Ranger Suarez, Arquimedes Gamboa and Franklyn Kilome as other names of interest to the Orioles.
In a video for FOX Sports, Rosenthal says the Orioles would prefer to separate Machado and reliever Zach Britton in trade discussions, believing they can maximize their return by moving them in separate deals. That could be in part because the Astros (who are not likely suitors for Machado) have interest in Britton.

Quick Hits: Gray, Hoffman, Mejia, Buxton

By Kyle Downing | July 14, 2018 at 7:12pm CDT

The Rockies recalled Jon Gray tonight to start tonight’s game against the Mariners. Gray’s 5.77 ERA across 17 starts this season seemed like reasonable cause for a demotion, but it always seemed as though he wouldn’t spend too long in the minors. After all, he was striking out 29% of opposing hitters, and by measures of FIP (3.12), xFIP (2.82) and SIERA (3.19), he was having an absolutely fantastic season. As MLBTR’s Connor Byrne mentioned at the time, his .386 BABIP and 63.1% strand rate pointed to a horrific amount of bad luck. In two starts at the Triple-A level, Gray managed to strike out 13 batters in 10 2/3 innings while allowing four runs.

In a corresponding move, the Rockies optioned fellow young right-hander Jeff Hoffman to Triple-A. Also a former top prospect, Hoffman hasn’t managed to find his footing in the majors yet, and has allowed more than a run per inning on average while pitching out of the Rockies’ bullpen. He’s also walked more batters than he’s struck out, and spent time on the DL with a shoulder injury.

Here are some notable developments from around MLB…

The Indians have recalled Francisco Mejia to make a start at DH tonight against the Yankees; it’s his 2018 MLB debut. The young switch-hitter is not only universally believed to be the Tribe’s top prospect, but he’s also considered the best catching prospect in all of baseball. Unfortunately for him, he’s been blocked in the majors by a solid defensive tandem of Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez, both of whom are signed to contracts that stretch a couple of years beyond 2018.
Another former top prospect, Twins outfielder Byron Buxton, can’t seem to catch a break this season. He’s apparently suffered a left wrist strain at Triple-A, and will head to the 7-day minor league disabled list (hat tip to Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com). After posting a horrific wRC+ of -3 (yes, negative), Buxton has put up a .219/.288/.356 batting line at Triple-A and will now have to wait at least another week before he has a chance to get on track.

Athletics Designate Santiago Casilla, Select J.B. Wendelken

By Kyle Downing | July 14, 2018 at 5:28pm CDT

The Athletics have made a series of roster moves; most notably among them is the DFA of right-hander Santiago Casilla. The club also selected the contract of 25-year-old righty J.B. Wendelken, while simultaneously optioning righty Ryan Dull, promoting infielder Franklin Barreto and reinstating righty Daniel Mengden from the 10-day DL.

It’s been a solid enough season for the 37-year-old Casilla on the surface, who owns a 3.16 ERA through 31 1/3 innings pitched. But his 4.08 FIP and 5.80 xFIP paint a wildly different picture. He’s also walked nearly as many hitters (20) as he’s managed to strike out (22), in part due to a career-low 9.0% swinging strike rate. As Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle notes, he’s likely to go unclaimed; Casilla is in the second season of a two-year, $11MM deal, and any claiming team would be on the hook for the prorated portion of his salary. He’ll likely be given the choice to accept a minor league assignment.

Wendelken will be making his first appearance in the majors since 2016, when he tossed 12 2/3 rough innings for the Athletics to the tune of a 9.95 ERA. The right-hander ultimately required Tommy John surgery, and remained out of commission until the beginning of this season. Thus far at the Triple-A level, he’s chucked a healthy 28 1/3 innings, managing a 3.49 ERA (2.39 FIP). The most impressive part about Wendelken’s performance this year is a whopping 14.29 K/9 against just 2.54 BB/9; it certainly seems likely that he’ll prove an upgrade over Casilla.

Mengden, 25, hasn’t pitched since June 23rd after suffering a right foot sprain during a start in which he gave up five earned runs across just two innings. While Mengden certainly isn’t known as an overpowering pitcher (5.46 K/9), he limits walks (1.89 BB/9) and has posted a 4.47 ERA on the season thus far in 90 2/3 innings.

Exploring The Value Of Rental Players As A Group

By Kyle Downing | July 8, 2018 at 11:24pm CDT

The hottest name on this year’s trade market, as expected, has been Orioles shortstop Manny Machado. Seven teams have reportedly made official offers for the young superstar, and at this point it appears as though the Brewers and Dodgers are the frontrunners for his services, with the Indians also in the mix. And though it’s not immediately clear what any of those teams offered, I expect that if Machado is traded by himself, the return will be less than inspiring.

At last season’s trade deadline, the Tigers traded one of the top power hitters in the game in J.D. Martinez. The prospects given up by the Diamondbacks in exchange were Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara, and Jose King. If none of those players sound familiar to you, it’s probably because they weren’t interesting enough at the time for you to remember their names. After all, none of them ranked among the Tigers’ top ten prospects upon entering their weak farm system (Lugo ranks highest among those players at present, checking in at #12), and certainly none of the three were brought up in public trade speculation surrounding Martinez.

There’s more a big disclaimer here. First, many teams don’t pay attention to public top prospect lists; they have access to far more player data, so they’re almost certainly assessing player value more accurately than publications like MLB Pipeline or Baseball America. For all we know, Lugo could rank among Detroit’s top 150 favorite minor-leaguers in the game. Still, on the surface, none of the three prospects had ever done anything particularly remarkable, and the fact that the Diamondbacks landed one of the best power hitters in MLB without giving up any marquee players came as a surprise to many.

One possible contributor to this is the talent gap between MLB teams. Prior to the deadline last season, an extraordinary number of teams were already out of the playoff race. This season’s even more extreme in that regard; the Indians already own a seemingly insurmountable lead in the AL Central, and it’s become clear that no AL East team outside of the Yankees and Red Sox has any chance of making the playoffs at all. Even in the AL West, only the Astros, Mariners and Athletics can feasibly be considered contenders at all at this point, with the Angels perhaps having an outside shot if they can get healthy. Los Angeles aside, though, there would appear to be just six AL teams competing for five playoff spots down the stretch, and even the Athletics’ chances are suspect.

Even in the National League, many teams are starting to pull ahead of the pack, setting up a landscape with less mystery surrounding playoff probables than in seasons past. And if these teams have less competition, they also face less of an urgency to acquire impact pieces prior to the trade deadline. The Indians, specifically, are in a division with four teams likely to be sellers (the Royals, in fact, already started, receiving a weak return for Kelvin Herrera). Why should they give up any significant future value for a player like Machado, who they’ll only benefit from during the playoffs? Why should the Red Sox trade from their thin farm system when at the very least they’ll probably have home field advantage in the Wild Card game either way?

If those teams (who both have holes in the infield to some extent) probably don’t feel the urgency necessary to spend big (in terms of prospects) on a player like Machado, it could take yet another two bidders out of an already-weak bidding war. Thus, the laws of supply and demand are likely to drive down the value of any player who would become a free agent at the end of the season.

My overall point is that, in an MLB climate where divisions are so lopsided, any rental player this season is unlikely to command the type of return he might have in another era. That doesn’t mean there won’t be plenty of activity involving these players, but logic tells me that an anxious bidding war for these rentals, the kind of competition that would yield an impressive return value, is unlikely to develop. It will surely be interesting to track players these players and see just how this storyline progresses.

Quick Hits: Puig, Sandoval, G. Hernandez, Indians, Mets

By Kyle Downing | July 8, 2018 at 9:39pm CDT

Congrats to all the players who were named 2018 All-Stars tonight, including 14 players who will be making their first-ever appearances at the exhibition game! The Red Sox, Astros and Indians lead the way with five All-Stars apiece, while Mike Trout, Craig Kimbrel, Chris Sale and Justin Verlander lead all players in this years cast in experience; it’s the seventh selection for each of those veterans.

The All-Star selections aren’t the only news of tonight, though. Here are a few other quick hits to take note of…

Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig departed tonight’s game after experiencing pain in his side during an at-bat. According to J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group, the team is calling it a “right intercostal oblique strain.” It’s not clear yet how much time Puig will miss (particularly since the intercostals and obliques are completely different muscles), but he seems likely to require a DL stint. There’s no firm news yet on the teams plans, though.
The Giants got some good news and some bad news today regarding a pair of players who were hurt in today’s game; Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group was among those to tweet the specifics. The bad news is that Pablo Sandoval is believed to have suffered a thumb sprain. He’s set to be evaluated tomorrow in order to determine the extent. of the injury. The good news, however, is that Gorkys Hernandez’ situation is being described as simply a “tight left calf”. The club doesn’t think it’s anything serious, so it’s likely he’ll miss little time, if any.
Center field and right field for the Indians have been “somewhat of a mess, a revolving door without much consistency,” writes Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal. Lewis notes the injury situations of Bradley Zimmer and Lonnie Chisenhall in particular, and lists external options such as Adam Jones, Nick Castellanos, Billy Hamilton and Adam Duvall as theoretical trade targets for the Tribe. Manny Machado has also been on the club’s radar, and could theoretically push Jason Kipnis into the outfield mix, as he has some experience there.
David Lennon of Newsday has some strongly-worded opinions about what he thinks the Mets ought to do with Jacob DeGrom and Noah Syndergaard prior to the trade deadline, writing that, “To stand pat with this group, in a market nearly devoid of reliable starters, would make the Mets guilty of criminal negligence in their efforts to put this debacle of a season behind them.” Though Lennon’s phrasing seems a bit hysterical, he does make a solid point in noting that the emergence of Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz makes it easier to part with either of their more established (and less controllable) starters.

Poll: Worst Use Of A Roster Spot

By Kyle Downing | July 8, 2018 at 7:37pm CDT

In today’s game of baseball, the 25th spot on each team’s active roster is arguably more valuable than it’s ever been. Managers are turning to their bullpens sooner than ever before, platoon situations have become commonplace, and defensive replacements and pinch runners remain a vital part of strategy late in close games. Most teams manipulate their rosters with painstaking attention to detail in order to maximize the balance of value and efficiency that each spot on the active roster yields.

That’s why dead weight on a roster can be damaging to a team in many ways. In essence, three major league clubs have committed to operating with 24 active roster spots so far during the 2018 season. Those teams are the Tigers, Red Sox and Angels, and their commitment to players who aren’t providing value (and aren’t likely to provide any this season) have not only cost them wins, but also but a strain on their teammates. Let’s explore these situations in depth…

Victor Reyes, Tigers- The number one overall pick in this past offseason’s Rule 5 Draft, Reyes must remain on Detroit’s active roster for the entire 2018 season or be offered back to the Diamondbacks. Prior to the season, he’d never played about Double-A, and ranked as the Tigers’ #25 overall prospect according to Baseball America. The biggest knocks on his game have always been his lack of power and his tendency to swing at bad pitches, which are fair concerns but fairly easy to stomach considering his speed, corner outfield defense and great contact skills.

That said, it’s painfully clear to everyone in baseball that Reyes doesn’t belong in the majors even a little bit, at least not right now. On the year, he’s hit just .241 with a nightmarish .547 OPS. Sure, it’s commonplace for Rule 5 draftees to struggle in the majors. But the difference here is that the Tigers are barely even giving Reyes a chance to work his issues out. While the young outfielder has appeared in 47 games, 16 of those have solely been as a pinch runner. In fact, Reyes has only been given 68 plate appearances, and he’s simultaneously been an offensive black hole and a defensive liability, according to Fangraphs. Those factors have led to a -0.5 fWAR figure that’s shockingly poor for someone with so little playing time. Speaking of playing time, it’s tough to expect him to develop properly if he’s getting such inconsistent opportunities, and with the way the Tigers are utilizing him it seems almost as though they’re willing to punt this year of his development entirely and wait to option him to the minors next year when the Rule 5 restrictions no longer apply.

The trade-off is that they’ll be able to add an upside contact player to their farm system if they can simply roster him at all times during a year when they’re not trying to win anyway. But even amidst a clear rebuilding phase, that roster spot could be used to give playing time to other young players who can actually be used; some of the talent they have at Triple-A at least deserve a look. Keeping an extra arm in the bullpen could also help prevent injury or exhaustion for a relief corps that’s been forced to shoulder a workload within the top 50th percentile in MLB. Sure, the whole point is that they get to keep Reyes if they hold onto him all year, but there’s a chance he’ll never develop into a useful player anyway. Is it worth the trouble if he hasn’t shown much promise yet?

Blake Swihart, Red Sox- We’ve discussed Swihart at length here on MLBTR, and while the roster around him has changed a bit, the situation has largely remained the same: Swihart’s presence on the roster is negatively impacting Boston’s contention for the AL East crown. The former top prospect’s star has dimmed dramatically since his MLB debut in 2015, and he’s only managed to scrape together enough offensive output to post a .185/.250/.210 batting line. Much like Reyes, Swihart has hardly been given any real playing time; he’s amassed just 88 plate appearances and 110 defensive innings.

Even with top backstop Christian Vazquez’ recent placement on the DL due to a fractured pinky, there’s no indication that Swihart’s benchwarming role with change any time soon. Although he came up through the Sox’ system as a catcher, he’s only appeared behind the plate a grand total of fifteen times in the past two seasons. This puts his team in quite a complicated predicament right now. On the surface, one might think the injury to Vazquez would force them to play Swihart more often. That would finally give the former top prospect one last chance to break through and prove he can stick behind the plate in the majors. However, there’s been no indication to this point that Swihart will actually receive that opportunity. The problem is that if Boston decides to acquire another catcher, they’re openly admitting to other teams that they don’t think Swihart deserves any opportunity to catch in the majors, even as a backup. That wouldn’t be a huge issue in a vacuum, but the Red Sox have been trying to trade Swihart in order to reap some value out of him, and giving up assets to acquire a backup catcher could theoretically expose their selling points on Swihart as pure bluff.

Regardless all the speculation and theory in the above paragraphs, it’s remarkably clear that Swihart is in the majors for one reason and one reason only: he’s out of minor-league options, and the Red Sox aren’t likely to sneak him through waivers with so many teams in full teardown mode. So they must either think that Swihart still retains some sort of high-ceiling potential, or that some other team will trade them something of value based on his top prospect pedigree. That might seem like a reasonable way to operate a ballclub at first glance; it’s certainly important to wring value from any place in which it can be found, after all. But problem in this situation is that the Sox are locked in a tight AL East race with the Yankees, and with each passing day he’s putting a drain on their ability to compete. To date, Swihart has been worth half a win below replacement level, and that’s in the meager playing time detailed above. If the club cuts bait later in the season, the choice to retain him for this long could be looked at as a glaring roster management error on the part of the part of Dave Dombrowski and the front office.

Albert Pujols, Angels- It’s no secret that Pujols’ contract is currently one of the worst in baseball, and perhaps among the worst contracts given out in baseball history. To date, he’s been paid about $130MM to provide about 6.4 fWAR to the Angels. That includes a -1.9 fWAR mark in 2017, and (like the other two players in this poll) half a win below replacement so far in 2018. By more traditional statistics, Pujols is hitting just .243/.281/.393 on the season, with a 4.5% walk rate that would be a career low. He’s played 400 rough innings at first base, is rated poorly on the basepaths, and continues to be one of the more shift-prone players in all of baseball.

The difference between Pujols and the other players on this list is that there’s virtually no hope that the former MVP can ever provide value to his team again. He’s 38 years old and has exhibited a steady decline in each of the past four seasons. In his prime, Pujols was not only a power god, but also enjoyed ten consecutive seasons with a walk total that exceeded his strikeouts. And while he still avoids strikeouts at an impressive rate for the current MLB climate, the walks have practically disappeared in recent seasons.

It’s clear that Pujols is only holding onto his roster spot by virtue of his past performance (and the respect he deserves for it), and the amount of money he’s being paid. But is that a wise way for a franchise to operate? The Angels entered the season as a hopeful contender, and while they’re surely disappointed to be sitting at a mere 45-45, they’ve still got at least an outside shot of a Wild Card berth. Holding onto Pujols isn’t going to help them make up the 11.5 games they’d need to over the season’s final two and a half months. There are plenty of better ways the Angels could use his spot on the roster, and even the average first baseman at Triple-A would be a better bet to improve the team.

Each of these players has cost his club half a win across half a season. There’s certainly nothing bad to be said about any of them as people, but for baseball purposes in a vacuum, which one is the worst use of a valuable roster spot on the whole? (Poll link for app users)

NL Notes: Darvish, Bryant, Duensing, Bass, Hedges, Muncy

By Kyle Downing | July 8, 2018 at 6:00pm CDT

Yu Darvish has yet to resume throwing after getting a cortisone shot in his arm last week, but according to Cubs president Theo Epstein, that doesn’t mean the club is likely to go out and try to acquire a frontline starter prior to the July 31st trade deadline. Carrie Muskat of MLB.com compiled quotes from Epstein about the club’s deadline stance that leave little room for interpretation. “There’s no way we’re going to go out and acquire starters the caliber of a locked-in Kyle Hendricks or a locked-in Jose Quintana. The majority of our answers lie within, that’s for sure,” he said. Of course, he later added that the club is “still in the mode of assessing”; it’s not difficult to imagine that things could change quickly if the rotation doesn’t turn itself around. In regards to Darvish’s status, Epstein said the club doesn’t want to push him too hard in an effort to get him back on the field. ’It’s not about rushing. Just get back out there. Get back in your routine. Get back in your work. Then, as this plays, we’ll get you back out there. Of course, we want you back sooner rather than later, but if biology’s not going to permit it, it’s not going to permit it.” Beyond Darvish, the Cubs have gotten disappointing performances from Hendricks, Quintana and offseason signee Tyler Chatwood on the year.

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