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Are Lackey, Bay Cause For Worry?

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Leave it to some who follow the Red Sox and Mets to worry prematurely about their big acquisitions, John Lackey and Jason Bay.

In the case of Lackey, he probably quieted some of the criticism with his seven innings against the Angels Wednesday night, allowing just one run. Meanwhile, Bay's struggles haven't yet abated.  Should either fan base be worried? Did the Red Sox waste $82.5MM on Lackey, and the Mets blow $66MM on Bay?  There's certainly not enough evidence to think so, and the guess here is that in the short-term, neither team will be sorry.

Let's start with Lackey. In his first 37 innings, he's pitched to a decent 3.89 ERA, and really, that reflects one poor start. Take that start out, and he has five quality starts in five outings, with a 2.14 ERA. He's gone seven innings in each of his last three starts.  The only thing that could cause concern is that he's struck out just 21 in those 37 innings. That is a rate of just 5.1 per nine innings, well off of his pace from last season, when he fanned 7.1 per nine.  But take a look at Lackey's first six starts from 2009. He posted a 6.61 ERA, and even his strikeout rate was just 5.2 per nine. It then jumped to a robust 7.5 per nine over his final 21 starts, along with a 3.23 ERA in those contests.

So it is entirely too soon to worry about Lackey. But what about Bay?

The numbers have been pretty ugly so far. Bay is hitting just .238/.345/.376 in his first 119 plate appearances as a Met. And it isn't like he's been particularly hit-unlucky, with a .338 batting average on balls in play in 2010, above his career BABIP of .327.  He's walking and striking out about as much as he did in 2009, and is actually hitting more line drives this year than last year.  So is it simply that Bay lost all of his power? Unlikely. It simply appears this streaky hitter is in a slump.

It went less noticed last year because of his strong start, but Bay had a remarkably similar period in his 2009 season. From June 3 to July 31, 2009, Bay hit .214/.349/.341, with just four home runs in 212 plate appearances over that time.  However, he balanced that out with 222 plate appearances from the start of the season to June 2 hitting .286/.410/.632, and finished the season from August 1 on with 204 plate appearances of .301/.392/.631 hitting.

Most likely, Mets fans will feel awfully silly about Bay fretting once he goes on this type of extended tear. And fortunately for the Mets, the concerns about his defense have largely proven to be unfounded so far, with Bay hovering right around average in left field.

In short, there are things for both the Red Sox and Mets to worry about. But John Lackey and Jason Bay aren't it.

Daniel Murphy: What Position?

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No one really disputes the fact that the Mets will be looking to trade Daniel Murphy. It is a team with weaknesses, while the one position where Murphy has excelled so far, first base, now appears to be the province of Ike Davis.

Murphy lost that first base job due to a knee injury, but as he prepares for a return to Triple-A Buffalo, the Mets still don't seem sure about where to play him. Here are the various positional options, along with what kind of trade value Murphy will likely provide should he take to them, from best to worst:

Second base: this is the best the Mets can hope for, and should be the position Daniel Murphy plays with Triple-A Buffalo. If Murphy can become merely adequate at the position, his bat profiles extremely well for long-term success at the position.

As a group, major league second basemen posted an OPS+ of an even 100, while Murphy, in his first 707 plate appearances, has an OPS+ of 103. In other words, Murphy, should he fail to develop any further as a hitter, would already be an above-average hitting second baseman. That would draw quite a bit of trade interest, and with the Mets lacking an obvious internal option to fill the position long-term, could even keep Murphy with the Mets.

Third base: The case here is similar to the one for second base, with some additional pluses. Like second basemen, third basemen hit for just an OPS+ of 101 in 2009, so Murphy is already an average bat at the position. Another advantage is that Murphy was a third basemen through most of his minor league career- 196 of his 230 defensive games in the minors were played at third base- so this would represent the least difficult transition for Murphy, defensively.

The case against is that a move to third base would only be a preliminary move to trading Murphy, with the current position on the Mets obviously taken.

First base: This is one of the three lesser options the Mets can take. On the plus side, Murphy showed he can clearly handle the position of first base defensively last season- despite some gaffes that naturally result from being thrown into a new position midway through a baseball season, Murphy posted impressive defensive numbers there.

The big problem is how his offense translates to first base. As a group, first basemen had an OPS+ of 125 last season. Considering that Murphy's career OPS+ is 103, it is unlikely, but not impossible, for Murphy to improve to the point of being an average offensive first baseman. But with second base and third base options for Murphy as well, this seems like a strange fit.

Left field: This one makes very little sense. Murphy, simply put, was not a left fielder when given the every day job out of spring training in 2009. His numbers were poor, and his instincts seemed particularly ill-suited for the position.

What's worse, his offense doesn't fit in left field, either. Left fielders had an OPS+ of 108 last year, meaning that Murphy's bat profiles a bit below average at the position. And unlike first base, where his defensive prowess can help make up some of the gap, in left field, Murphy would likely have to hit a good bit better than average just to break even.

Utility player: This option has some upside, with Murphy filling in at multiple positions at Triple-A in preparation for a utility role with either the Mets or another team. But it would seem to stunt his development further.

Keep in mind, Murphy has played all the positions mentioned above, but none of them exclusively for any period of time, keeping him from learning to play in one place, while allowing him to focus on developing as a hitter. Asking him to juggle so many positions may well keep him from becoming a hitter that can best help the Mets, let alone drawing interest from other teams.

And more to the point: if the Mets are showcasing him for a trade, what was the last time a team received a ton of trade chips in exchange for a utility player?

The Market For Chris Iannetta

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Most of the attention this week went to the signing of Ryan Howard, but the strangest move may have been Colorado's decision to send Chris Iannetta to the minor leagues.

Iannetta, 27, had a tremendous 2008, hitting .264/.390/.505 in 407 plate appearances. His numbers dipped somewhat in 2009, falling to .228/.344/.460, but that was still good for an OPS+ of 103, which put him in the upper echelon of hitting catchers. The Rockies clearly thought highly of his future as well, signing him to a three-year, $8.35MM contract this winter, with a 2013 club option.

So why would the team send Iannetta down on the strength of 34 poor plate appearances? And what's more, they did so in favor of Miguel Olivo, who is nearly five years older and has never had a season that approached Iannetta's 2008. It boggles the mind.

But with Iannetta out of favor in Colorado, it is hard to imagine the Rockies wanting to spend $8.35MM over the next three years on their Triple-A catcher. So which teams should have the most interest in Iannetta?

  • The Mets make a whole lot of sense as a landing spot. With Rod Barajas and Henry Blanco as the current major league catchers, the future is not planned for behind the plate with either one. Josh Thole is a promising catcher at Triple-A (though off to a slow start), but Iannetta projects to be the far better hitter than Thole, and hitting is Thole's ticket to the big leagues. And the Mets have the money to take a chance on Iannetta's long-term deal: even if he pans out as a backup, that salary doesn't kill them.
  • The Red Sox could be a strong contender for Iannetta's services. Obviously, Jason Varitek doesn't figure to be on the roster for the long-term, and the throwing skills of Victor Martinez (just 2 of 29 base stealers thrown out) makes his future at catcher tenuous at best. Martinez is also a free agent after the season. The Red Sox can also afford to take on his salary, even as a backup; Varitek, the backup this season, makes $3MM.  But as ESPN's Jayson Stark noted yesterday, the roster becomes a mess if the Sox add a catcher. 
  • The Royals have Wil Myers as their catcher of the future, but he's currently in Low A ball.  Iannetta could bridge the gap, even with Jason Kendall signed through next year.

Of course, plenty of other teams could benefit from the addition of Iannetta. Whoever ends up with Iannetta, the only one likely to regret it is the team trading him.

Phillies 2012: A Look Ahead

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With the signing of Ryan Howard to a five-year, $125MM deal, the scope of what the Phillies can do heading into the 2012 season has come into greater focus. And at the risk of hyperbole, the key takeaway may be: when the Mayans said the world would end in 2012, were they specifically talking about the Phils?

Let's take a look at what Philadelphia will be spending money on as the 2012 season dawns. Roy Halladay is signed for $20MM. Howard, too, is signed for $20MM.  Chase Utley is signed for $15.3MM. Joe Blanton is signed for $10.5MM, Shane Victorino for $9.5MM, Placido Polanco for $6.4MM, Carlos Ruiz for $3.7MM, and almost certainly, Brad Lidge will be given a $1.5MM buyout.

That's $87MM going to seven players to play and one player to not play. And for their money, the Phillies will receive:

  • The age-32 season of a first baseman whose numbers overall have been in decline through age 30, and whose difficulties against lefties make him a good deal less valuable against situational relievers late in games (Howard).
  • The age-35 season of a pitcher who is dominant now, but will be 35 years old (Halladay).
  • The age-33 season of a second baseman, a position that is notoriously tough on aging players (Utley).
  • The age-31 season of a pitcher with a career 4.21 ERA (Blanton).
  • The age-31 season of a center fielder whose value is largely tied to his legs (Victorino).
  • The age-36 season of a third baseman whose value is largely tied to his defense (Polanco).
  • The age-33 season of a catcher whose career OPS is .720 (Ruiz).

Now obviously, the above list merely points out the red flags of the players under contract. Perhaps all seven of them will perform in 2012 as they did in 2009.

The problem is that even if they do, the Phillies will need to make a relatively small amount of money go a long way.

Consider that the team traded Cliff Lee this past offseason, passing up a chance to have a 1-2 punch in the rotation of Halladay and Lee over concerns that Lee would cost C.C. Sabathia-type money ($23MM annually). It seems fair to assume that the money that would have gone to Lee went to Howard instead. In other words, the $140MM threshold the Phillies find themselves at right now isn't far from where they expect to be in 2012. Certainly, they had no intention of being at $160MM, which is where Lee plus Howard would have landed them.

But we want to be fair to the Phillies, so let's split the difference, and plan for a $150MM 2012 payroll. With $87MM gone, Philadelphia has $63MM left over for: three starting pitchers, six or seven relievers, a shortstop, a left fielder, a right fielder, and four or five bench players.

In other words, even without any decline from any of the seven players under contract that year, the Phillies are going to need a lot of their prospects step up. And if they decide to sign current right fielder Jayson Werth and shortstop Jimmy Rollins– both likely to cost $10MM or more annually and both entering their age-33 seasons in 2012- the entire remaining team will have to be low-cost options fresh from the farm system to make the numbers work.

And we haven't even discussed what Cole Hamels, signed for $9.5MM in 2011, is likely to get in 2012 in what will be his final year of arbitration.

With so many holes to fill, it is hard to believe that Philadelphia decided to put so much of its 2012 payroll into Ryan Howard. This analysis doesn't even get into the problems for the team when Howard pulls down a cool $25MM annually from 2014-2016 for his age 34-36 seasons.

For a team that has managed to position itself as the clear favorite in the 2010 National League, such success may be fleeting.

Pierzynski Discusses Future With White Sox

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WEDNESDAY, 6:20pm: Cowley follows up on Pierzynski's comments by getting a few reaction quotes from Ozzie Guillen. The White Sox skipper attempted to quell speculation about a possible trade or Flowers promotion, saying of Pierzynski: "He's not going to lose his job. I'm very happy with what I've got and I have a lot of optimism with what I have and I think A.J. is my catcher…. As long as I'm here, I don't see why he's not going to be my catcher."

TUESDAY, 9:28pm: Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times caught up with A.J. Pierzynski about his future with the White Sox. As pointed out by Tim earlier today, the catcher would achieve 10-and-5 rights this June, meaning he could veto any trade.

Pierzynski, 33, wanted to work out an extension with the White Sox, but with that off the table for now, he's looking for a resolution about his future.

‘‘Everyone knows my situation, I’m a free agent at the end of the year," Pierzynski told Cowley. "But I also know this, if it gets to about June then they can’t trade me, so they’re going to have to make a decision here pretty quick.’’

He added that Chicago is his first choice. Pierzynski is hitting just .171/.227/.195 in his first 44 plate appearances this season, but says his status has nothing to do with the slow start.

With Tyler Flowers in the wings, it is hard to imagine that the White Sox will keep Pierzynski around for anything other than a pennant race.

For his part, White Sox GM Kenny Williams is preaching patience.

Looper Throws For Cubs; Signing Not Expected

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WEDNESDAY, 2:31pm: MLB.com's Carrie Muskat tweets that the Cubs are not expected to sign Looper.

TUESDAY, 8:36pm: FOXSports' Ken Rosenthal tweets that free agent Braden Looper threw for the Cubs today, and will be flexible on his role if the Cubs want him.

Looper is coming off of a disastrous 2009 season for the Brewers. He pitched to a 5.22 ERA, along with 64 walks and 100 strikeouts in 194 2/3 innings. Worst of all was a league-high 39 home runs allowed.

However, with the Cubs' bullpen pitching to a 6.00 ERA entering tonight's game (and struggling again), Looper may be an upgrade over some of the pitchers out there right now.

Odds & Ends: Nationals, Angels, Royals

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As the West Coast games get started, here are some tidbits to snack on…

Diamondbacks, Mateo Closer To Deal

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The Wagner Mateo saga may be reaching a conclusion, with The Arizona Republic's Nick Piecoro reporting that the Diamondbacks and Mateo, the 17-year-old outfield prospect from the Dominican Republic, are "getting closer" to a deal worth about 500K.

SI.com's Melissa Segura reported that Arizona expected to sign Mateo last week, but that report turned out to be premature. Piecoro reports that the Diamondbacks believe the report may have come from the Mateo camp to try and elicit another offer.

Mateo originally signed last summer with the Cardinals for $3.1MM, but St. Louis voided that deal after problems with Mateo's vision surfaced.

State Of The Trade: Volquez For Hamilton

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It is a useful exercise to take a look back at trades that were made, to help evaluate exactly how they are going for both teams. With the news of Edinson Volquez receiving a 50-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs, now seems like a good time to evaluate the deal that sent Volquez and Danny Herrera from Texas to Cincinnati in exchange for Josh Hamilton.

As Tim pointed out earlier this afternoon, the suspension itself does very little to impact Volquez's value to the Reds. His 50-game suspension begins tomorrow, with Volquez on the DL. He had Tommy John Surgery on August 3, 2009, so even the most optimistic projections wouldn't have had him back before the 50 games is up.

As to who is ahead in this deal, it is hard to say. Both Hamilton and Volquez have had one fantastic season with their post-trade teams. Hamilton posted a .304/.371/.530 line with Texas in 2008 during his age-27 season. Volquez, during that same season, put up a 17-6, 3.21 ERA line in his age-24 season.

By Baseball Prospectus' Wins Above Replacement Player, Volquez was worth 5.3 WARP in 2008, Hamilton checking in at 5.5. As per Fangraphs.com's WAR, Volquez was slightly ahead, 4.3 to 4.1. Both had injury-marred 2009 seasons, and have posted roughly equivalent value for their two teams so far.

Moving forward, Hamilton is off to a rough start in 2010, at .222/.333/.390 through his first 48 plate appearances. Volquez, of course, won't be able to help Cincinnati until later this season if at all.

With his litany of injuries, it is hard to count on Hamilton to recapture his 2007 form. Volquez is coming back from Tommy John surgery, a fairly common occurrence. Volquez is also significantly younger; Hamilton turns 29 on May 21, Volquez turns just 27 on July 3.  However, projecting pitchers is almost always harder than projecting hitters.

This challenge trade seems too close to call right now, but Volquez seems likelier to regain elite player status. More money, however, is due to Hamilton. He earns $3.25MM in 2010, as he was arbitration-eligible this past offseason, while Volquez makes just $445K (and the Reds won't need to pay him for the next 50 games, or roughly a third of that salary).

In the meantime? Danny Herrera keeps on keeping on, following a 3.06 ERA in 61 2/3 innings in 2009 with a strong start in 2010. Just 25, Herrera may be the difference-maker in this deal after all.

Red Sox Roundup: Kotchman, Epstein, McDonald

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With Red Sox Nation in full panic mode, a number of writers are surveying the wreckage in a 4-9 start that represents, to provide some clarity, just eight percent of the season.

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